Missile reliability assessment method and system based on fusion factor

Abstract

The invention discloses a missile reliability assessment method and system based on fusion factors, and belongs to the technical field of equipment general quality characteristic assessment. The method comprises the following steps: determining missile reliability test data fusion factors of each stage by using field sample data and historical sample data of each stage; calculating beta distribution parameters of the historical sample data of each stage by using the historical sample data of each stage; using the missile reliability test data fusion factor and the beta distribution parameter of each stage to update the posterior distribution parameter of the field sample data; and calculating a confidence lower limit value of the missile reliability by using the updated posterior distribution parameters of the field sample data and adopting an inverse accumulation function of beta distribution, thereby realizing evaluation of the missile reliability. The reliability information of each stage of the missile is fully utilized, the number of test samples in the identification stage is effectively reduced, and the research and development cycle and the economic cost are reduced.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of general quality characteristic evaluation of equipment, and particularly relates to a missile reliability evaluation method and system based on a fusion factor. Background Technique

[0002] Missile reliability evaluation is an important evaluation index for missile combat performance. In the type approval stage, the classical binomial distribution is mostly used for evaluation, that is, the missile is regarded as a success or failure product. This method for evaluating the missile launch flight reliability mainly relies on the range identification flight sub-sample data. When the missile launch flight reliability and confidence level are both relatively high, a relatively large number of identification flight test sub-samples and flight success rates are often required. For medium and long-range missiles, due to the limitations of R & D costs and development schedules, it is difficult to meet the evaluation requirements by relying only on the flight samples in the identification stage for reliability evaluation. Under the new situation, it is of great strategic significance to carry out reliability evaluation throughout the stages of performance tests, combat tests, and in-service assessments, and comprehensively utilize the reliability test information of each stage to reduce the test sample size and shorten the development cycle.

[0003] Due to the differences in the characteristics of test data in different stages, how to fuse the reliability information of each stage has become the main problem in reliability evaluation. At present, indicators such as inheritance factors, environmental factors, and conversion coefficients have been successively applied to the fusion of test data in each stage. Among them, the method based on environmental factors is to convert the carried flight test and flight test environment conversion coefficient to 1, and the environmental test conversion coefficient for a single limit stress environment is 1.5; while the method based on the conversion coefficient is to convert the pre-test equivalent flight test data on the ground and the range identification flight test data, and this value usually takes 0.6 - 0.9. These above methods are all determined by experience and lack a rigorous theoretical basis. There are differences in the missile test results in different stages, and the reliability information they contain is also different. Therefore, it is of great value to combine the reliability information of the test data itself to achieve the fusion of test data in each stage. Summary of the Invention

[0004] One of the purposes of the present invention is to provide a missile reliability evaluation method based on a fusion factor, which makes full use of the reliability information of each stage of the missile, effectively reduces the number of test samples in the identification stage, and reduces the R & D cycle and economic costs.

[0005] Another purpose of the present invention is to provide a missile reliability evaluation system based on a fusion factor.

[0006] A missile reliability evaluation method based on a fusion factor, the missile reliability evaluation method includes:

[0007] Step S1: Determine the missile reliability test data fusion factor for each stage by using the on-site sample data and the historical sample data of each stage.

[0008] Step S2: Calculate the beta distribution parameters of the historical sample data of each stage by using the historical sample data of each stage.

[0009] Step S3: Update the posterior distribution parameters of the on-site sample data by using the missile reliability test data fusion factor and the beta distribution parameters of each stage.

[0010] Step S4: Calculate the confidence lower limit value of the missile reliability by using the inverse cumulative function of the beta distribution with the updated posterior distribution parameters of the on-site sample data, so as to realize the evaluation of the missile reliability.

[0011] Further, the specific implementation process of step S1 includes:

[0012] Step S11: Determine the first on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of no historical sample data by using the on-site sample data.

[0013] In step S11, the on-site sample data includes the on-site test times and the on-site success times.

[0014] Step S12: Determine the second on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of the historical sample data of each stage by using the historical sample data of each stage and the on-site sample data.

[0015] In step S12, the historical sample data includes the historical test times and the historical success times.

[0016] Step S13: Calculate the information entropy loss ratio of the missile reliability test data for each stage by using the first on-site sample conditional entropy and the second on-site sample conditional entropy.

[0017] Step S14: Normalize the information entropy loss ratio of the missile reliability test data for each stage to determine the missile reliability test data fusion factor for each stage.

[0018] Further, the specific implementation process of step S11 includes:

[0019] Step S111: Obtain the on-site sample data and determine the first posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data in the case of no historical sample data by using the beta distribution.

[0020] Step S112: Perform logarithmic calculation on the first posterior distribution function.

[0021] Step S113: Multiply the first posterior distribution function by the logarithmically calculated first posterior distribution function, and then perform integration to obtain the first on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of no historical sample data.

[0022] Further, the specific implementation process of step S12 includes:

[0023] Step S121: Obtain the historical sample data of each stage, and determine the prior distribution hyperparameters of the missile reliability of the historical sample data of each stage;

[0024] Step S122: Use the prior distribution hyperparameters and the on-site sample data to determine the second posterior distribution function of the on-site sample data missile reliability in the case of the historical sample data of each stage;

[0025] Step S123: Perform logarithmic calculation on the second posterior distribution function of the on-site sample data missile reliability in the case of the historical sample data of each stage;

[0026] Step S124: Multiply the second posterior distribution function of the on-site sample data missile reliability in the case of the historical sample data of each stage by the logarithmically calculated second posterior distribution function of the on-site sample data missile reliability in the case of the corresponding stage's historical sample data, and then perform integration to obtain the second on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of the historical sample data of each stage.

[0027] Further, in step S2, the beta distribution parameters of the historical sample data of each stage are:

[0028] a i * = x i * + 1;

[0029] b i * = n i * - x i * ;

[0030] where a i * and b i * are the beta distribution parameters of the historical sample data X i * of the i-th stage; n i * and x i * are the historical test times and historical success times in the historical sample data X i of the i-th stage, respectively.

[0031] Further, in the step S3, the posterior distribution parameters of the updated on-site sample data are as follows:

[0032]

[0033]

[0034] where a posterior and b posterior are the posterior distribution parameters of the updated on-site sample data; ρ i is the missile reliability test data fusion factor for the i-th stage, i = 1, 2,..., N, where N is the number of stages; n and x are the number of on-site tests and the number of on-site successes in the on-site sample data X, respectively.

[0035] To achieve the second above-mentioned object, the present invention adopts the following technical solution to implement:

[0036] A missile reliability evaluation system based on a fusion factor, the missile reliability evaluation system includes:

[0037] A determination module, configured to determine the missile reliability test data fusion factor for each stage by using the on-site sample data and the historical sample data for each stage;

[0038] A calculation module, configured to calculate the beta distribution parameters of the historical sample data for each stage by using the historical sample data for each stage;

[0039] An update module, configured to update the posterior distribution parameters of the on-site sample data by using the missile reliability test data fusion factor and the beta distribution parameters for each stage;

[0040] An evaluation module, configured to calculate the lower confidence limit value of the missile reliability by using the inverse cumulative function of the beta distribution with the posterior distribution parameters of the updated on-site sample data, so as to implement the evaluation of the missile reliability.

[0041] Further, the determination module includes:

[0042] A first determination sub-module, configured to determine the first on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of no historical sample data by using the on-site sample data;

[0043] The on-site sample data includes the number of on-site tests and the number of on-site successes;

[0044] A second determination sub-module, configured to determine the second on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of the historical sample data for each stage by using the historical sample data for each stage and the on-site sample data;

[0045] The historical sample data includes the number of historical tests and the number of historical successes.

[0046] A calculation sub-module, configured to calculate the information entropy loss ratio of the missile reliability test data at each stage by using the first on-site sample conditional entropy and the second on-site sample conditional entropy;

[0047] A normalization processing sub-module, configured to perform normalization processing on the information entropy loss ratio of the missile reliability test data at each stage to determine the missile reliability test data fusion factor at each stage.

[0048] Further, the first determination sub-module includes:

[0049] A first acquisition sub-unit, configured to acquire on-site sample data and use the beta distribution to determine the first posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data in the case of no historical sample data;

[0050] A first logarithm calculation sub-unit, configured to perform logarithm calculation on the first posterior distribution function;

[0051] A first integration sub-unit, configured to multiply the first posterior distribution function by the logarithmically calculated first posterior distribution function and then perform integration to obtain the first on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of no historical sample data.

[0052] Further, the second determination sub-module includes:

[0053] A second acquisition sub-unit, configured to acquire the historical sample data at each stage and determine the prior distribution hyperparameters of the missile reliability of the historical sample data at each stage;

[0054] A determination sub-unit, configured to use the prior distribution hyperparameters and the on-site sample data to determine the second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data in the case of the historical sample data at each stage;

[0055] A second logarithm calculation sub-unit, configured to perform logarithm calculation on the second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data in the case of the historical sample data at each stage;

[0056] A second integration sub-unit, configured to multiply the second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data in the case of the historical sample data at each stage by the logarithmically calculated second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data in the case of the corresponding stage's historical sample data and then perform integration to obtain the second on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of the historical sample data at each stage.

[0057] In summary, the technical solution of the present invention has the following technical effects:

[0058] The missile reliability test data fusion factor at each stage determined by the on-site sample data and the historical sample data at each stage, and the beta distribution parameters of the historical sample data at each stage calculated by the historical sample data at each stage are used to update the posterior distribution parameters of the on-site sample data; by using the updated posterior distribution parameters of the on-site sample data and adopting the inverse cumulative function of the beta distribution, the confidence lower limit value of the missile reliability is calculated, realizing the evaluation of the missile reliability with data fusion at different stages, making full use of the reliability information of each stage of the missile, effectively reducing the number of test samples in the verification stage, and reducing the R & D cycle and economic cost. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0059] In order to more clearly illustrate the specific embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following will briefly introduce the drawings required for the description of the specific embodiments or the prior art. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention. For those of ordinary skill in the art, without creative efforts, other drawings can also be obtained based on these drawings.

[0060] Figure 1 It is a schematic flowchart of the missile reliability evaluation method based on the fusion factor according to the embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0061] In order to make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, rather than all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts belong to the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0062] This embodiment provides a missile reliability evaluation method based on the fusion factor. Refer to Figure 1 , the missile reliability evaluation method includes:

[0063] Step S1: Use the on-site sample data and the historical sample data at each stage to determine the missile reliability test data fusion factor at each stage.

[0064] This embodiment calculates the missile reliability test data fusion factor at each stage by using the first on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of no historical sample data and the second on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of historical sample data at each stage. The specific implementation process includes:

[0065] Step S11: Use the on-site sample data to determine the first on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of no historical sample data.

[0066] The on-site sample data in this embodiment includes the number of on-site tests and the number of on-site successes. After obtaining the on-site sample data X = (n, x), the uniform distribution on (0, 1) is used as the prior distribution of the missile reliability R of the on-site sample data. Then, the first posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data without historical sample data is as follows:

[0067]

[0068] Among them, π 0 (R|X) is the first posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data without historical sample data; R is the missile reliability of the on-site sample data X; Γ(*) is the Γ function; n and x are the number of on-site tests and the number of on-site successes in the on-site sample data X respectively.

[0069] According to the following formula, calculate the conditional entropy of the on-site sample data without historical sample data, that is, the information entropy (the first on-site sample conditional entropy) of the missile reliability R of the on-site sample data without historical sample data. The first on-site sample conditional entropy is:

[0070]

[0071] Among them, H 0 (R) is the first on-site sample conditional entropy.

[0072] In summary, the specific implementation process of this step includes:

[0073] Step S111: Obtain the on-site sample data, and use the beta distribution to determine the first posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data without historical sample data;

[0074] Step S112: Perform logarithmic calculation on the first posterior distribution function;

[0075] Step S113: Multiply the first posterior distribution function by the first posterior distribution function after logarithmic calculation, and then perform integration to obtain the first on-site sample conditional entropy without historical sample data.

[0076] Step S12: Use the historical sample data of each stage and the on-site sample data to determine the second on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of the historical sample data of each stage.

[0077] The historical sample data in this embodiment includes the number of historical tests and the number of historical successes. Considering the historical sample data X of each stage i * =(n i * ,x i* ), the prior distribution of the missile reliability R of the field sample data is assumed to be its conjugate prior distribution β(a,b) (where the hyperparameters a and b can be solved by historical stage samples), and the posterior distribution considering the field sample data X=(n,x) is calculated to solve the conditional entropy (i.e., the second field sample conditional entropy under the historical sample data condition).

[0078] In summary, the specific implementation process of this step includes:

[0079] Step S121, obtaining historical sample data of each stage, and determining the prior distribution hyperparameters of the missile reliability of the historical sample data of each stage;

[0080] Step S122, using the prior distribution hyperparameters and the field sample data, determining a second posterior distribution function of the reliability of the field sample data missile under the historical sample data of each stage;

[0081] The second posterior distribution function in this embodiment is:

[0082] π i (R|(X,X i * )) = β(a+x,b+nx);

[0083] Among them, π i (R|(X,X i * )) is the historical sample data X of the i-th stage i * The second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the field sample data X under the condition; R is the missile reliability of the field sample data X; β(*) is the Beta distribution function; n and x are the number of trials and the number of successes in the field sample data X respectively; a and b are the hyperparameters of the prior distribution.

[0084] Step S123, performing logarithmic calculation on the second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data in the case of the historical sample data of each stage;

[0085] Step S124, multiply the second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the field sample data under the historical sample data of each stage by the second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the field sample data under the historical sample data of the corresponding stage after logarithmic calculation, and then integrate them to obtain the second field sample conditional entropy under the historical sample data of each stage.

[0086] The second on-site sample condition entropy under the historical sample data of each stage in this embodiment is:

[0087]

[0088] Among them, H i (R) is the historical sample data X of the i-th stage i * The conditional entropy of the second on-site sample in this case.

[0089] Step S3: Calculate the information entropy loss ratio of the missile reliability test data for each stage by using the conditional entropy of the first on-site sample and the conditional entropy of the second on-site sample.

[0090] Step S13: Calculate the information entropy loss ratio of the missile reliability test data for each stage by using the conditional entropy of the first on-site sample and the conditional entropy of the second on-site sample.

[0091] The information entropy loss ratio of the missile reliability test data for each stage in this embodiment is:

[0092]

[0093] Among them, is the information entropy loss ratio of the missile reliability test data for the i-th stage; H 0 (R) is the conditional entropy of the first on-site sample; H i (R) is the historical sample data X of the i-th stage i The conditional entropy of the second on-site sample in this case.

[0094] Step S14: Normalize the information entropy loss ratio of the missile reliability test data for each stage to determine the data fusion factor of the missile reliability test for each stage.

[0095] The data fusion factor of the missile reliability test data for each stage in this embodiment is:

[0096]

[0097] Among them, ρ i is the data fusion factor of the missile reliability test data for the i-th stage; is the information entropy loss ratio of the missile reliability test data for the j-th stage, j = 1, 2,..., N, and N is the number of stages.

[0098] If there is only historical sample data for one stage, then the information entropy loss ratio of the missile reliability test data for this stage does not need to be normalized, and this value is the fusion factor ρ.

[0099] Step S2: Calculate the beta distribution parameters of the historical sample data for each stage by using the historical sample data for each stage.

[0100] Calculate the beta distribution parameter a of the historical sample data for each stage by using the historical sample data for each stage i* and b i * . The beta distribution parameters of the historical sample data in each stage of this embodiment are as follows:

[0101] a i * = x i * + 1;

[0102] b i * = n i * - x i * ;

[0103] Wherein, a i * and b i * are the beta distribution parameters of the historical sample data X in the i-th stage; n i * and x i * are respectively the historical number of trials and the historical number of successes in the historical sample data X in the i-th stage. i * in the i-th stage; i Steps S3. Using the missile reliability test data fusion factor and beta distribution parameters of each stage, update the posterior distribution parameters of the on-site sample data.

[0104] In this embodiment, the posterior distribution parameters of the updated on-site sample data are as follows:

[0105] In this embodiment, the posterior distribution parameters of the updated on-site sample data are as follows:

[0106]

[0107]

[0108] Wherein, a posterior and b posterior are the posterior distribution parameters of the updated on-site sample data; ρ i is the missile reliability test data fusion factor in the i-th stage, i = 1, 2,..., N, and N is the number of stages; n and x are respectively the on-site number of trials and the on-site number of successes in the on-site sample data X.

[0109] Step S4. Using the posterior distribution parameters of the updated on-site sample data, adopt the inverse cumulative function of the beta distribution to calculate the lower confidence limit value of the missile reliability, so as to realize the evaluation of the missile reliability.

[0110] In this embodiment, the posterior distribution parameters of the updated on-site sample data are used to update the first posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data in the case of no historical sample data. Then, the updated first posterior distribution function is used to calculate the lower confidence limit value of the missile reliability according to the inverse cumulative function of the beta distribution. The lower confidence limit value of the missile reliability is:

[0111]

[0112] where π(R|X) is the updated first posterior distribution function; R L is the lower confidence limit value of the missile reliability; C is a constant.

[0113] In this embodiment, the missile reliability test data fusion factor of each stage determined by the on-site sample data and the historical sample data of each stage, and the beta distribution parameters of the historical sample data of each stage calculated by the historical sample data of each stage are used to update the posterior distribution parameters of the on-site sample data; the updated posterior distribution parameters of the on-site sample data are used to calculate the lower confidence limit value of the missile reliability by using the inverse cumulative function of the beta distribution, realizing the evaluation of the missile reliability with data fusion in different stages, making full use of the reliability information of each stage of the missile, effectively reducing the number of test samples in the identification stage, and reducing the R & D cycle and economic cost.

[0114] The technical solution of the above embodiment can be implemented by the technical solution given in the following embodiment:

[0115] Another embodiment provides a missile reliability evaluation system based on a fusion factor. The missile reliability evaluation system includes:

[0116] A determination module, configured to determine the missile reliability test data fusion factor of each stage by using the on-site sample data and the historical sample data of each stage;

[0117] A calculation module, configured to calculate the beta distribution parameters of the historical sample data of each stage by using the historical sample data of each stage;

[0118] An update module, configured to update the posterior distribution parameters of the on-site sample data by using the missile reliability test data fusion factor and the beta distribution parameters of each stage;

[0119] An evaluation module, configured to calculate the lower confidence limit value of the missile reliability by using the updated posterior distribution parameters of the on-site sample data and adopting the inverse cumulative function of the beta distribution, so as to realize the evaluation of the missile reliability.

[0120] Further, the determination module includes:

[0121] The first determination sub-module is used to determine the first on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of no historical sample data by using on-site sample data;

[0122] The on-site sample data includes the number of on-site tests and the number of on-site successes;

[0123] The second determination sub-module is used to determine the second on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of historical sample data of each stage by using the historical sample data of each stage and the on-site sample data;

[0124] The historical sample data includes the number of historical tests and the number of historical successes

[0125] The calculation sub-module is used to calculate the information entropy loss ratio of missile reliability test data of each stage by using the first on-site sample conditional entropy and the second on-site sample conditional entropy;

[0126] The normalization processing sub-module is used to perform normalization processing on the information entropy loss ratio of missile reliability test data of each stage to determine the data fusion factor of missile reliability test of each stage.

[0127] Furthermore, the first determination sub-module includes:

[0128] The first acquisition sub-unit is used to acquire on-site sample data and determine the first posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of on-site sample data in the case of no historical sample data by using the beta distribution;

[0129] The first logarithm calculation sub-unit is used to perform logarithm calculation on the first posterior distribution function;

[0130] The first integration sub-unit is used to multiply the first posterior distribution function by the logarithmically calculated first posterior distribution function and then perform integration to obtain the first on-site sample conditional entropy in the case of no historical sample data.

[0131] Furthermore, the second determination sub-module includes:

[0132] The second acquisition sub-unit is used to acquire the historical sample data of each stage and determine the prior distribution hyperparameters of the missile reliability of the historical sample data of each stage;

[0133] The determination sub-unit is used to determine the second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of on-site sample data in the case of historical sample data of each stage by using the prior distribution hyperparameters and on-site sample data;

[0134] The second logarithm calculation sub-unit is used to perform logarithm calculation on the second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of on-site sample data in the case of historical sample data of each stage;

[0135] A second integration sub-unit, configured to multiply the second posterior distribution function of the on-site sample data missile reliability under the historical sample data condition of each stage by the second posterior distribution function of the on-site sample data missile reliability under the historical sample data condition of the corresponding stage after logarithmic calculation, and then perform integration to obtain the second on-site sample conditional entropy under the historical sample data condition of each stage.

[0136] The principles, formulas and their parameter definitions involved in the above embodiments are all applicable and will not be elaborated here one by one.

[0137] The above embodiments only represent several implementation manners of the present application, and the description thereof is relatively specific and detailed. However, it should not be construed as a limitation on the scope of the invention patent. It should be noted that for those of ordinary skill in the art, without departing from the concept of the present application, several modifications and improvements can still be made, and these all belong to the protection scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the patent of the present application shall be subject to the appended claims.

Claims

1. A missile reliability assessment method based on fusion factors, characterized in that: The missile reliability assessment method comprises: Step S1, using the on-site sample data and the historical sample data of each stage, determine the missile reliability test data fusion factor of each stage; Step S2, using the historical sample data of each stage, calculating the beta distribution parameters of the historical sample data of each stage; Step S3, using the missile reliability test data fusion factor and Beta distribution parameters of each stage to update the posterior distribution parameters of the field sample data; Step S4: Utilize the updated posterior distribution parameters of the field sample data and adopt the inverse cumulative function of the Beta distribution to calculate the lower confidence limit of the missile reliability, thereby realizing the evaluation of the missile reliability.

2. The missile reliability assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The specific implementation process of step S1 includes: Step S11, using the on-site sample data, determining the first on-site sample conditional entropy in the absence of historical sample data; In the step S11, the field sample data includes the number of field tests and the number of field successes; Step S12, using the historical sample data of each stage and the field sample data, determining the second field sample conditional entropy under the historical sample data of each stage; In the step S12, the historical sample data includes the historical number of tests and the historical number of successes; Step S13, using the first on-site sample condition entropy and the second on-site sample condition entropy, calculating the missile reliability test data information entropy loss ratio of each stage; Step S14: normalize the information entropy loss ratio of the missile reliability test data at each stage to determine the fusion factor of the missile reliability test data at each stage.

3. The missile reliability assessment method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The specific implementation process of step S11 includes: Step S111, obtaining on-site sample data, and using Beta distribution to determine the first posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data in the absence of historical sample data; Step S112, performing logarithmic calculation on the first posterior distribution function; Step S113: multiply the first posterior distribution function by the first posterior distribution function after logarithm calculation, and then integrate them to obtain the first on-site sample conditional entropy without historical sample data.

4. The missile reliability assessment method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The specific implementation process of step S12 includes: Step S121, obtaining historical sample data of each stage, and determining the prior distribution hyperparameters of the missile reliability of the historical sample data of each stage; Step S122, using the prior distribution hyperparameters and the field sample data, determining a second posterior distribution function of the reliability of the field sample data missile under the historical sample data of each stage; Step S123, performing logarithmic calculation on the second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data in the case of the historical sample data of each stage; Step S124, multiply the second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the field sample data under the historical sample data of each stage by the second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the field sample data under the historical sample data of the corresponding stage after logarithmic calculation, and then integrate them to obtain the second field sample conditional entropy under the historical sample data of each stage.

5. The missile reliability assessment method according to claim 4, characterized in that: In step S2, the beta distribution parameter of the historical sample data in each stage is: a i * =x i * +1; b i * =n i * -x i * ; Among them, a i * and b i * is the historical sample data X of the i-th stage i * Beta distribution parameter; n i * and x i * are the historical sample data X of the i-th stage respectively. i The historical number of trials and the historical number of successes in .

6. The missile reliability assessment method according to claim 5, characterized in that: In step S3, the updated posterior distribution parameters of the field sample data are: Among them, a posterior and b posterior is the posterior distribution parameter of the updated field sample data; ρ i is the missile reliability test data fusion factor of the i-th stage, i = 1, 2, ..., N, N is the number of stages; n and x are the number of field tests and the number of field successes in the field sample data X, respectively.

7. A missile reliability assessment system based on fusion factors, characterized in that: The missile reliability evaluation system comprises: A determination module, used to determine the missile reliability test data fusion factor at each stage by using the field sample data and the historical sample data at each stage; A calculation module, used to calculate the beta distribution parameters of the historical sample data of each stage using the historical sample data of each stage; An updating module, used for updating the posterior distribution parameters of the field sample data by using the missile reliability test data fusion factor and Beta distribution parameters of each stage; The evaluation module is used to use the posterior distribution parameters of the updated field sample data and the inverse cumulative function of the Beta distribution to calculate the confidence lower limit value of the missile reliability, thereby realizing the evaluation of the missile reliability.

8. The missile reliability evaluation system according to claim 7, characterized in that: The determination module comprises: A first determination submodule is used to determine the first on-site sample conditional entropy without historical sample data using on-site sample data; The field sample data includes the number of field tests and the number of field successes; A second determination submodule is used to determine the second on-site sample condition entropy under the historical sample data of each stage by using the historical sample data of each stage and the on-site sample data; The historical sample data includes the historical number of tests and the historical number of successes A calculation submodule, used to calculate the information entropy loss ratio of the missile reliability test data in each stage by using the first on-site sample condition entropy and the second on-site sample condition entropy; The normalization processing submodule is used to normalize the information entropy loss ratio of the missile reliability test data at each stage to determine the fusion factor of the missile reliability test data at each stage.

9. The missile reliability evaluation system according to claim 8, characterized in that: The first determining submodule includes: A first acquisition subunit is used to acquire on-site sample data and determine a first posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data in the absence of historical sample data using Beta distribution; A first logarithmic calculation subunit, used for performing logarithmic calculation on the first posterior distribution function; The first integration subunit is used to multiply the first posterior distribution function by the first posterior distribution function after logarithm calculation, and then integrate to obtain the first on-site sample conditional entropy in the absence of historical sample data.

10. The missile reliability evaluation system according to claim 9, characterized in that: The second determining submodule includes: The second acquisition subunit is used to acquire the historical sample data of each stage and determine the hyperparameters of the prior distribution of the missile reliability of the historical sample data of each stage; A determination subunit is used to determine a second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the field sample data under the historical sample data condition of each stage by using the prior distribution hyperparameters and the field sample data; A second logarithmic calculation subunit is used to perform logarithmic calculation on a second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data under the historical sample data of each stage; The second integration subunit is used to multiply the second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data under the historical sample data of each stage by the second posterior distribution function of the missile reliability of the on-site sample data under the historical sample data of the corresponding stage after logarithmic calculation, and then integrate to obtain the second on-site sample conditional entropy under the historical sample data of each stage.

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