Heating quantity prediction method based on heating degree days

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of heat supply, in particular to a heat supply quantity prediction method based on heating day number, which comprises the following steps: S1, calculating the daily heating day number S of a historical heating season; s2, calculating unit consumption C of a pipe network once every day in a historical heating season; s3, calculating the daily heat consumption Y of a primary pipe network in a historical heating season; s4, obtaining ideal heat consumption Y1 of the number of days of the primary pipe network; s5, the heating day number S1 of the next heating day in the heating season is calculated; s6, the heat supply area A1 of the heating season and the heat supply time t1 of the next heat supply day of the heating season are counted; s7, the heat supply amount Q1 of the next heating day in the heating season is predicted and calculated; s8, heating is conducted according to the heat supply amount Q1, obtained through prediction and calculation, of the next heating day of the current heating season; according to the heat supply quantity prediction method based on the heating degree day number, the heat supply quantity is accurately adjusted, so that the indoor temperature is always kept at a proper temperature, and the heat supply cost of an enterprise is conveniently reduced on the basis of ensuring stable heat supply.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of heating, and particularly relates to a heat supply prediction method based on heating degree days. Background Technique

[0002] Currently, during the heating season, heating personnel often adjust heating parameters based on experience. When analyzing the heating energy consumption index of heating enterprises, the single consumption of the primary pipe network is a commonly used index, and generally each heating enterprise pays more attention to this index. It refers to the average heat load consumed per square meter of heating area in the entire heat network during the heating period, that is, the heat consumption per unit building area. However, this index only reflects the average heat load per unit heating area during a certain period, and various factors such as different regions and the change of winter ambient temperature will have a greater impact on this index. Heating degree days is also an important index reflecting the temperature situation in the heating season of a region. It refers to the cumulative value obtained by multiplying the difference between the daily average temperature and 18°C by 1 day when the daily average temperature is lower than 18°C. Whenever the ambient temperature changes significantly, under-supply or over-supply of heat will occur. In the case of under-supply, the indoor temperature of residents does not reach the standard, affecting normal life. In the case of over-supply, in addition to meeting the heating needs of residents, the heat supply per unit area increases, resulting in an increase in heating costs and also causing waste of energy.

[0003] The heat consumption of the primary pipe network per heating degree day refers to the average heat load consumed per square meter of heating area in the heat network for every 1°C increase in the temperature difference when the ambient temperature is raised to 18°C. The heat consumption of the primary pipe network per heating degree day for each day can be calculated by dividing the single consumption of the primary pipe network on that day by the heating degree days on that day. The introduction of the heat consumption of the primary pipe network per heating degree day can reflect the heat consumption level of heating enterprises after excluding the influence of ambient temperature changes.

[0004] In actual heating, in order to ensure that people can spend the winter warmly and enhance the happiness and sense of gain of the people, it is generally considered appropriate to reach a room temperature of 20 - 22°C in actual heating. The heat consumption of the primary pipe network per heating degree day at the appropriate room temperature is an ideal energy consumption index. At the same time, the ideal heat consumption of the primary pipe network per heating degree day is also an important reference basis for heating. Therefore, how to adjust the heat supply according to the heat consumption of the primary pipe network per heating degree day is an urgent problem to be solved. Summary of the Invention

[0005] In order to reduce the heating cost of enterprises on the basis of ensuring stable heating, the present application provides a heat supply prediction method based on heating degree days.

[0006] A heat supply prediction method based on heating degree days provided by the present application adopts the following technical solution:

[0007] A heat supply prediction method based on heating degree days includes the following steps:

[0008] S1. Calculate the heating degree days S per day in the historical heating season.

[0009] S2. Calculate the single consumption C of the primary pipeline network per day in the historical heating season.

[0010] S3. Calculate the heat consumption Y of the primary pipeline network per day in the historical heating season; according to the heating degree days S per day in the historical heating season and the single consumption C of the primary pipeline network, calculate the heat consumption Y of the primary pipeline network per day in the historical heating season.

[0011] S4. Obtain the ideal heat consumption Y of the primary pipeline network per day. 1 ;

[0012] S5. Calculate the heating degree days S of the next heating day in this heating season. 1 ; Predict the average temperature T of the next heating day in this heating season. 1 , and calculate the heating degree days S of the next heating day in this heating season. 1 ;

[0013] S6. Statistically calculate the heating area A in this heating season. 1 and the heating time t of the next heating day in this heating season. 1 .

[0014] S7. Predict and calculate the heat supply Q of the next heating day in this heating season. 1 ;

[0015] According to the ideal heat consumption Y of the primary pipeline network per day. 1 、the heating degree days S of the next heating day in this heating season. 1 、the heating area A in this heating season. 1 and the heating time t of the next heating day in this heating season. 1 , predict and calculate the heat supply Q of the next heating day in this heating season. 1 ;

[0016] S8. Conduct heating according to the heat supply Q of the next heating day in this heating season obtained from the prediction calculation. 1

[0017] In a possible implementation, first, statistically calculate the average ambient temperature T per day in the historical heating season, and then calculate the heating degree days S per day in the historical heating season based on the average ambient temperature T per day in the historical heating season; the calculation method of the heating degree days S per day in the historical heating season is: S = 18 - T;

[0018] In the formula, the unit of the average ambient temperature T per day in the historical heating season is °C;

[0019] The unit of the heating degree days S per day in the historical heating season is °C.

[0020] In a possible implementation, first, the daily heat supply Q, the heating area A, and the heating time t in each historical heating season are counted. Then, according to the daily heat supply Q, the heating area A, and the heating time t in each historical heating season, the single consumption C of the primary pipe network per day in the historical heating season is calculated. The calculation method of the single consumption C of the primary pipe network per day in the historical heating season is: C = Q / (A * t);

[0021] In the formula, the unit of the daily heat supply Q in the historical heating season is J;

[0022] The unit of the heating area A in the historical heating season is ㎡;

[0023] t is the heating time per day in the historical heating season, and the unit is s.

[0024] In a possible implementation, the calculation method of the heat consumption Y of the heating degree days per day in the historical heating season is: Y = C / S;

[0025] In the formula, the unit of the heat consumption Y of the heating degree days per day in the historical heating season is W / (㎡ * ℃).

[0026] In a possible implementation, the ideal heat consumption Y of the heating degree days of the primary pipe network 1 is obtained through multiple tests. When ensuring that the heat consumption of the heating degree days of the primary pipe network is Y 1 the indoor temperature is suitable.

[0027] In a possible implementation, the heating degree days S of the next heating day in this heating season 1 is calculated as: S 1 = 18 - T 1 ;

[0028] In the formula, the average ambient temperature T of the next heating day in this heating season 1 is in the unit of ℃;

[0029] The heating degree days S of the next heating day in this heating season 1 is in the unit of ℃;

[0030] In a possible implementation, the prediction calculation method of the heat supply Q of the next heating day in this heating season 1 is: Q 1 = A 1 * Y 1 * S 1 * t 1 ;

[0031] In the formula: Q 1 is the heat supply required for the next heating day in this heating season, and the unit is J;

[0032] A 1 is the heating area in this heating season, and the unit is ㎡;

[0033] Ideal heat consumption Y of the primary pipe network per heating degree-day 1 The unit is W / (㎡*℃);

[0034] Heating degree-days S of the next heating day in this heating season 1 The unit is ℃;

[0035] Average temperature T of the next heating day in this heating season 1 The unit is ℃;

[0036] t 1 is the heating time of the next heating day in this heating season, and the unit is s.

[0037] Through a heat supply prediction method based on heating degree-days provided by this application, when heating this heating season, first obtain the daily heating degree-days S according to the daily average ambient temperature T of the historical heating season. At the same time, count the daily heat supply Q and heating area A of the historical heating season, and calculate the daily single consumption C of the primary pipe network in the historical heating season according to the daily heat supply Q and heating area A of the historical heating season. Calculate the heat consumption Y of the primary pipe network per heating degree-day of each day in the historical heating season according to the daily heating degree-days S of the historical heating season and the daily single consumption C of the primary pipe network in the historical heating season. After multiple tests, obtain the ideal heat consumption Y of the primary pipe network per heating degree-day at a suitable room temperature 1 , then predict the average temperature T of the next heating day in this heating season 1 , calculate the heating degree-days S of the next heating day in this heating season 1 , according to the ideal heat consumption Y of the primary pipe network per heating degree-day 1 , the heating degree-days S of the next heating day in this heating season 1 , the heating area A of this heating season 1 and the heating time t of the next heating day in this heating season 1 , predict and calculate the heat supply Q 1 of the next heating day in this heating season. Finally, carry out heating according to the predicted heat supply Q1, and precisely adjust the heat supply to keep the indoor temperature always suitable, avoid the overall under-supply of the heat network affecting the normal life of residents, and the overall over-supply of the heat network resulting in energy waste, which is convenient to ensure reducing the heating cost of enterprises on the basis of stable heating. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0038] The drawings are used to provide a further understanding of this application, and constitute a part of the specification. Together with the embodiments of this application, they are used to explain this application, and do not constitute a limitation to this application;

[0039] Figure 1 is a step flow chart of a heat supply prediction method based on heating degree-days of this application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0040] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this application clearer, the technical solutions in this application will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in this application. Obviously, the described embodiments are some, but not all, of the embodiments of this application. All other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art based on the embodiments in this application without making creative efforts fall within the scope of protection of this application.

[0041] The terms "first" and "second" are only used for descriptive purposes and cannot be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly specifying the quantity of the indicated technical features. Thus, features defined with "first" and "second" may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of such features; in the description of this application, unless otherwise stated, the meaning of "a plurality" is two or more.

[0042] The following will further Figure 1 describe this application in detail.

[0043] An embodiment of this application discloses a heat supply prediction method based on heating degree days.

[0044] Referring to Figure 1 , a heat supply prediction method based on heating degree days includes the following steps:

[0045] A heat supply prediction method based on heating degree days includes the following steps:

[0046] S1. Calculate the heating degree days S for each day in the historical heating season; first, count the average daily ambient temperature T in the historical heating season, and then calculate the heating degree days S for each day in the historical heating season according to the average daily ambient temperature T in the historical heating season, where S = 18 - T; in the formula, the unit of the average daily ambient temperature T in the historical heating season is °C, and the unit of the heating degree days S for each day in the historical heating season is °C.

[0047] S2. Calculate the single consumption C of the primary pipe network for each day in the historical heating season; first, count the daily heat supply Q, heating area A, and heating time t in the historical heating season, and then calculate the single consumption C of the primary pipe network for each day in the historical heating season according to the daily heat supply Q, heating area A, and heating time t in the historical heating season, where C = Q / (A * t); in the formula, the unit of the daily heat supply Q in the historical heating season is J; the unit of the heating area A in the historical heating season is m²; t is the heating time for each day in the historical heating season, and the unit is s.

[0048] S3. Calculate the heat consumption Y of the primary pipeline network per day during the historical heating season; according to the heating degree days S per day during the historical heating season and the single consumption C of the primary pipeline network, calculate the heat consumption Y of the primary pipeline network per day during the historical heating season: Y = C / S; where the unit of the heat consumption Y of the primary pipeline network per day during the historical heating season is W / (㎡*℃).

[0049] S4. Obtain the ideal heat consumption Y of the primary pipeline network per day 1 ; based on the heat consumption Y of the primary pipeline network per day during the historical heating season, obtain the ideal heat consumption Y of the primary pipeline network per day 1 ; the ideal heat consumption Y of the primary pipeline network per day 1 is obtained through multiple tests. When the heat consumption of the primary pipeline network per day is Y 1 , the indoor temperature is suitable.

[0050] S5. Calculate the heating degree days S of the next heating day in this heating season 1 ; predict the average temperature T of the next heating day in this heating season through means such as weather forecast 1 , and calculate the heating degree days S of the next heating day in this heating season based on the average temperature T of the next heating day in this heating season 1 : S 1 = 18 - T 1 ; where the unit of the average ambient temperature T of the next heating day in this heating season 1 is ℃; the unit of the heating degree days S of the next heating day in this heating season 1 is ℃.

[0051] S6. Statistically calculate the heating area A of this heating season 1 and the heating time t of the next heating day in this heating season 1 .

[0052] S7. Predict and calculate the heat supply Q of the next heating day in this heating season 1 ; according to the ideal heat consumption Y of the primary pipeline network per day 1 , the heating degree days S of the next heating day in this heating season 1 , the heating area A of this heating season 1 and the heating time t of the next heating day in this heating season 1 , predict and calculate the heat supply Q of the next heating day in this heating season 1 ; Q 1 = A 1 * Y 1 * S 1 * t 1 ; where Q 1 is the required heat supply of the next heating day in this heating season, and the unit is J; A 1 is the heating area of this heating season, and the unit is ㎡; the ideal heat consumption Y of the primary pipeline network per day1 The unit of [it] is W / (㎡*℃); the heating degree days S of the next heating day in this heating season 1 The unit of [it] is ℃; the average temperature T of the next heating day in this heating season 1 The unit of [it] is ℃; t 1 is the heating time of the next heating day in this heating season, and the unit is s.

[0053] S8. The heat supply Q of the next heating day in this heating season calculated according to the prediction 1 for heating.

[0054] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, rather than limiting it. The present application is not limited to the exact structure already described and illustrated in the drawings. It cannot be considered that the specific implementation of the present application is only limited to these descriptions. For those of ordinary skill in the technical field to which the present application belongs, without departing from the concept of the present application, various changes and deformations made should be regarded as falling within the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting heating supply based on heating degree days, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: S1. Calculate the heating day number S of each day in the historical heating season; S2. Calculate the unit consumption C of the pipe network once a day during the historical heating season; S3. Calculate the heat consumption Y of the primary pipe network degree days per day in the historical heating season; Calculate the heat consumption Y of the primary pipe network degree days per day in the historical heating season based on the heating degree days S and the primary pipe network unit consumption C; S4, obtain the ideal primary pipe network degree-day heat consumption Y1; S5, calculating the number of heating degree days S1 of the next heating day in the current heating season; predicting the average temperature T1 of the next heating day in the current heating season, and calculating the number of heating degree days S1 of the next heating day in the current heating season; S6. Count the heating area A1 of this heating season and the heating time t1 of the next heating day of this heating season. S7, predict and calculate the heat supply Q1 of the next heating day in this heating season; According to the ideal primary network degree-day heat consumption Y1, the heating degree-days S1 of the next heating day of the heating season, the heating area A1 of the heating season and the heating time t1 of the next heating day of the heating season, the heat supply Q1 of the next heating day of the heating season is predicted and calculated; S8. Provide heating according to the predicted heating supply Q1 for the next heating day of this heating season.

2. A method for predicting heating supply based on heating degree days according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S1, the daily average ambient temperature T of the historical heating season is firstly counted, and then the daily heating degree days S of the historical heating season is calculated according to the daily average ambient temperature of the historical heating season; the calculation method of the daily heating degree days S of the historical heating season is: S=18-T; Where, the unit of daily average ambient temperature T during the historical heating season is ℃; The unit of daily heating degree days S during the historical heating season is ℃.

3. A method for predicting heating supply based on heating degree days according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S2, the daily heat supply Q, heating area A and heating time t of the historical heating season are first counted, and then the daily pipe network unit consumption C of the historical heating season is calculated according to the daily heat supply Q, heating area A and heating time t of the historical heating season. The calculation method of the daily pipe network unit consumption C of the historical heating season is: C = Q / (A*t); In the formula, the unit of daily heat supply Q in the historical heating season is J; The unit of heating area A in the historical heating season is m2; t is the daily heating time in the historical heating season, in seconds.

4. The method for predicting heating supply based on heating degree days according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S3, the calculation method of the heat consumption Y of the heating degree days per day in the historical heating season is: Y=C / S; In the formula, the unit of heat consumption Y of the daily pipe network degree-days in the historical heating season is W / (㎡*℃).

5. The method for predicting heating supply based on heating degree days according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S4, the ideal primary network degree-day heat consumption Y1 is obtained through multiple tests. When the primary network degree-day heat consumption is guaranteed to be Y1, the indoor temperature is suitable.

6. A method for predicting heating supply based on heating degree days according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S5, the calculation method of the number of heating degree days S1 of the next heating day in the current heating season is: S1 = 18 - T1; Where, the unit of average ambient temperature T1 of the next heating day in this heating season is ℃; The unit of heating degree days S1 for the next heating day in this heating season is ℃.

7. A method for predicting heating supply based on heating degree days according to claim 1, characterized in that: In S7, the prediction calculation method of the heat supply Q1 of the next heating day in the current heating season is: Q1 = A1*Y1*S1*t1; Where: Q1 is the required heat supply for the next heating day in this heating season, in J; A1 is the heating area of ​​this heating season, in square meters; The unit of ideal primary network degree-day heat consumption Y1 is W / (㎡*℃); The unit of heating degree days S1 for the next heating day in this heating season is °C; The unit of average temperature T1 of the next heating day in this heating season is ℃; t1 is the heating time of the next heating day in this heating season, in seconds.

Images