Method and system for evaluating power limiting rate of wind-solar complementary project, and computer program storage medium

Abstract

The invention provides a wind-solar complementary project power limiting rate evaluation method and system and a computer program storage medium, and relates to the technical field of new energy power generation. The method comprises the steps of calculating hourly generating capacity of a wind power plant and a photovoltaic field in preset years; calculating hour-by-hour limited electric quantity according to the hour-by-hour generating capacity of the wind power plant and the photovoltaic field in the preset age limit and the difference value between the maximum capacity of the main transformer and the maximum capacity of the sending-out line; and calculating a year-by-year power limiting rate of a preset age limit based on the hour-by-hour power limiting quantity, and counting power limiting rates of different probabilities based on the year-by-year power limiting rate. According to the invention, evaluation of the power limiting rate of the wind-solar complementary project can be realized.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the field of renewable energy power generation technology, and in particular to a method and system for assessing power limit rates of wind-solar complementary projects, and a computer program storage medium. Background Art

[0002] As the proportion of new energy continues to increase, the access and absorption capacity of the power grid has become one of the core issues restricting the development of new energy. Under the premise of making full use of transmission channels, wind and solar complementary projects have emerged as an important means to increase the utilization rate of new energy.

[0003] Wind-solar complementary projects usually adopt the form of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, sharing the main transformer and transmission line. Since wind power and photovoltaic power have certain complementarity in time, their joint operation can effectively improve the utilization rate of the transmission line. However, under certain specific conditions, such as when wind power and photovoltaic power generation are at peak output at the same time, the overall output power of the project may exceed the rated capacity of the transformer or transmission line, resulting in part of the power generation being restricted from output, resulting in power rationing.

[0004] The evaluation of power curtailment rate is directly related to the power generation and economic efficiency of the project throughout its life cycle. Therefore, how to reasonably evaluate the power curtailment rate of wind-solar hybrid projects throughout their life cycle is a key technical issue to ensure project benefits. Summary of the invention

[0005] The technical problem to be solved by the present application is to provide a method, system and computer program storage medium for evaluating the power limit rate of a wind-solar complementary project.

[0006] The technical solution adopted by the present application to solve the technical problem is to provide a method for evaluating the power limit rate of a wind-solar complementary project, including:

[0007] Calculate the hourly power generation of wind farms and photovoltaic farms for a preset number of years;

[0008] The hourly power limit is calculated based on the difference between the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm for the preset years and the maximum capacity of the main transformer and the maximum capacity of the transmission line;

[0009] The annual power restriction rate for a preset period of time is calculated based on the hourly power restriction, and power restriction rates with different probabilities are calculated based on the annual power restriction rate.

[0010] In one embodiment, the step of calculating the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm for a preset number of years includes:

[0011] Using ERA5 data and wind tower data, combined with wind turbine characteristic power curves, calculate the hourly power generation of the wind farm for a preset number of years;

[0012] Using satellite data and measured irradiation data, calculate the hourly power generation of the PV field for a preset number of years.

[0013] In one embodiment, the ERA5 data includes hourly wind speed and hourly wind direction;

[0014] Using ERA5 data and wind tower data, combined with wind turbine characteristic power curves, the steps for calculating the hourly power generation of a wind farm for a preset number of years include:

[0015] Obtain the measured wind speed, calculate the measured hourly wind speed for a preset number of years based on the correlation equation between the measured wind speed and the hourly wind speed in the ERA5 data, and use the hourly wind direction in the ERA5 data as the measured hourly wind direction for the preset number of years;

[0016] The hourly power generation of the wind farm for a preset number of years is calculated based on the measured hourly wind speed for a preset number of years, the measured hourly wind direction for a preset number of years, combined with the characteristic power curve of the wind turbine and the data from the wind tower.

[0017] In one embodiment, the wind tower data is used to correct the measured hourly wind speed.

[0018] In one embodiment, the satellite data includes hourly irradiance data;

[0019] The steps for calculating the hourly power generation of a photovoltaic field for a preset number of years using satellite data and measured irradiation data include:

[0020] Obtain hourly irradiation data for a preset number of years, and calculate hourly horizontal irradiation and hourly scattered irradiation for a preset number of years based on a correlation equation between the measured irradiation data and the hourly irradiation data;

[0021] Obtain the photovoltaic module parameters, inverter parameters and bracket parameters of the wind-solar hybrid project;

[0022] Calculate total radiation exposure based on hourly horizontal radiation, hourly scattered radiation and support parameters;

[0023] The hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field for a preset number of years is calculated based on the photovoltaic module parameters, inverter parameters and total irradiation.

[0024] In one embodiment, the satellite data includes temperature data;

[0025] The steps of calculating the hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field for a preset period of time based on the photovoltaic module parameters, the inverter parameters and the total irradiation include:

[0026] Calculate the irradiation temperature of the photovoltaic module, correct the temperature data with the irradiation temperature, and obtain the module temperature;

[0027] The hourly power generation of the PV field for a preset number of years is calculated based on PV module parameters, inverter parameters, module temperature and total irradiation.

[0028] In one embodiment, the step of calculating the hourly power limit according to the difference between the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm for a preset period of time and the maximum capacity of the main transformer and the maximum capacity of the transmission line includes:

[0029] According to the calculation formula: C t =max(0,P wind (t)+P solar (t)-min(M a , M b )) Calculate the hourly power generation, where C t is the power limit at time t, P wind (t) is the power generation of the wind farm at time t, P solar (t) is the power generation of the photovoltaic field at time t, M a is the maximum capacity of the outgoing line, M b is the maximum capacity of the main transformer.

[0030] In addition, to achieve the above purpose, the present application also provides a wind-solar hybrid project power limit rate assessment system, including:

[0031] The power generation calculation module is used to calculate the hourly power generation of the wind farm and photovoltaic farm for a preset number of years;

[0032] The power limit calculation module is used to calculate the hourly power limit according to the difference between the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm for a preset number of years and the maximum capacity of the main transformer and the maximum capacity of the transmission line;

[0033] The statistical analysis module is used to calculate the power curtailment rate in different scenarios based on different power curtailment probabilities.

[0034] In one embodiment, the system further includes a data acquisition module for acquiring ERA5 data, wind tower data, satellite data and measured irradiance data.

[0035] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application also provides a computer program storage medium, which includes a computer program. When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the above-mentioned method, and outputs the power limit rate assessment result of the wind-solar complementary project by inputting corresponding wind-solar resource data and design parameters.

[0036] The implementation of this application has at least the following beneficial effects: first, the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm within a preset number of years is calculated; then, the hourly power limit is calculated based on the difference between the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm within the preset number of years and the maximum capacity of the main transformer and the maximum capacity of the transmission line; then, the annual power limit rate for the preset number of years is calculated based on the hourly power limit; finally, power limit rates with different probabilities are calculated based on the annual power limit rate; and the power limit rate probability of the wind-solar complementary project is evaluated by calculating power limit rates with different probabilities, which has the advantages of accurate evaluation, reducing power limit phenomena, and improving the grid's absorption capacity. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0037] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0038] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the first embodiment of the method for assessing power curtailment rate of a wind-solar complementary project of the present application;

[0039] Figure 2 This is the overall technical flow chart of the power limit rate assessment method for the wind-solar complementary project in this application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0040] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0041] The present application provides a method for evaluating the power cutoff rate of a wind-solar hybrid project, referring to Figure 1 , Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the first embodiment of the method for evaluating power curtailment rate of a wind-solar hybrid project of the present application.

[0042] First, establish wind tower observation and irradiation observation, obtain wind tower data and measured irradiation data, etc. The observation elements include: wind speed, wind direction, temperature, air pressure, global horizontal irradiation, direct irradiation, scattered irradiation, ground reflected irradiation, etc. The observation interval is 10 minutes, and the observation duration is 1 year. The measured values ​​corresponding to each observation element are obtained by observation, such as measured wind speed value, measured temperature, etc. It can be understood that the observation interval and observation duration can be adjusted according to actual needs.

[0043] In this embodiment, the method for evaluating the power limit rate of a wind-solar hybrid project includes steps S10 to S30:

[0044] Step S10, calculating the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm for a preset number of years;

[0045] It should be noted that the preset period depends on the actual application scenario of the project. In this application, the preset period can be the past thirty years. It is understandable that the preset period can be adjusted as needed. The hourly power generation of the wind farm and photovoltaic farm in the preset period refers to the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the hourly power generation of the photovoltaic farm in the past thirty years.

[0046] In a feasible implementation manner, the step S10 of calculating the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm for a preset number of years includes steps S11 to S12:

[0047] Step S11, using ERA5 data and wind tower data, combined with wind turbine characteristic power curves, to calculate the hourly power generation of the wind farm for a preset number of years;

[0048] It should be noted that ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis v5) is the fifth generation of atmospheric reanalysis data sets of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for the global climate from January 1950 to the present. The wind tower data is the measured data of the wind farm for one year observed by the wind tower, including the measured wind speed value. The wind turbine characteristic power curve is the relationship curve between the output power of the wind turbine generator set in the wind farm at different wind speeds. The wind turbine characteristic power curve reflects the relationship between wind speed and wind turbine output power. At different wind speeds, the power output of the wind turbine will change according to its rated power and starting wind speed, cut-out wind speed and other characteristics. By substituting the hourly wind speed data into the power curve of the wind turbine, the hourly power generation of the wind farm can be obtained.

[0049] Specifically, ERA5 data and wind tower data are obtained, combined with the wind turbine characteristic power curve, to calculate the hourly power generation of the wind farm in a preset number of years, such as the hourly power generation for 30 years.

[0050] Step S12, using satellite data and measured irradiation data, calculate the hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field for a preset number of years.

[0051] It should be noted that satellite data provides a wide range of irradiation data, and satellite data can be used to understand the irradiation change trend in a specific area. The measured irradiation data is the measured data of the photovoltaic field for one year obtained through irradiation observation. Using satellite data and measured irradiation data, combined with the performance parameters of the photovoltaic system (such as the conversion efficiency of the photovoltaic panel, the array area, etc.), the hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field can be calculated. The power generation of the photovoltaic system is proportional to the irradiation intensity. As the irradiation changes, the output power of the photovoltaic panel also fluctuates. The hourly power generation is calculated by the irradiation intensity and the parameters of the photovoltaic system, and the hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field is accumulated.

[0052] Specifically, the hourly irradiation data and measured irradiation data of the project location for a preset number of years are obtained from satellite data, and the hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field is calculated by combining these two data with the performance parameters of the photovoltaic system.

[0053] Step S20, calculating the hourly power limit according to the difference between the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm for a preset number of years and the maximum capacity of the main transformer and the maximum capacity of the transmission line;

[0054] Specifically, first obtain the hourly power generation of the wind farm within the preset years and the power generation of the photovoltaic farm at a certain moment within the preset years, take the smaller value between the maximum capacity of the main transformer and the maximum capacity of the transmission line, add the power generation of the wind farm at a certain moment and the power generation of the photovoltaic farm at a certain moment during the same period to obtain the total power generation at this moment, then subtract the smaller value between the maximum capacity of the main transformer and the maximum capacity of the transmission line from the total power generation at this moment to obtain the power limit at this moment. This method can be used to calculate the power limit for each hour within the preset years.

[0055] In a feasible implementation, step S20 may include:

[0056] According to the calculation formula: C t =max(0,P wind (t)+P solar (t)-min(M a , M b )) (1)

[0057] Calculate the hourly power generation, where C t is the power limit at time t, P wind (t) is the power generation of the wind farm at time t, P solar (t) is the power generation of the photovoltaic field at time t, M a is the maximum capacity of the outgoing line, M b is the maximum capacity of the main transformer.

[0058] It should be noted that insufficient capacity of either the main transformer or the transmission line will limit the overall power generation, so the smaller value of the two capacities should be taken.

[0059] Step S30, calculating an annual power restriction rate for a preset period of time based on the hourly power restriction amount, and calculating power restriction rates with different probabilities based on the annual power restriction rate.

[0060] In a feasible implementation manner, the step of calculating the annual power restriction rate for a preset period of time based on the hourly power restriction includes:

[0061] According to the formula: Calculate the annual power curtailment rate within the preset period.

[0062] Among them, Curtailment Rat e It is the annual power curtailment rate, and t is a certain moment.

[0063] In a feasible implementation manner, the step of calculating power curtailment rates with different probabilities based on the annual power curtailment rates includes:

[0064] The power curtailment rate of each year for the preset period of time, such as 30 years, is formed into an array series {R 1 ,R 2 ......, R i}, where R i Represents the power curtailment rate in year i. The power curtailment rates of P50, P75 and P90 are calculated using statistical methods.

[0065] It should be noted that P50 refers to the calculation of the value in the middle of the array when the data in the array is arranged in order of size, such as the average of 30 data at the 15th and 16th positions. P75 refers to the calculation of the value at the 75th percentile in the sorted array, and the same applies to P90.

[0066] For example, assume that there are the following data on power curtailment rates for each of the past 30 years (unit: percentage):

[0067] {2.3, 1.8, 3.5, 2.7, 1.5, 4.2, 3.1, 2.9, 1.9, 2.6, 3.3, 2.8, 2.0, 1.7, 3.0, 2.5, 2.2, 1.6, 3.4, 2.4, 2.1, 1.4, 3.6, 2.3, 1.8, 3.2, 2.6, 2.0, 1.5, 3.7}.

[0068] First, sort the data from small to large:

[0069] {1.4, 1.5, 1.5, 1.6, 1.7, 1.8, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 2.6, 2.6, 2.7, 2.8, 2.9, 3.0, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 4.2}

[0070] Calculate P50, P = 50% * 30, 30 is the total number of data in the sequence, because P is an integer, so P50 is the average of the 15th and 16th data in the sorted array: P50 = (2.4 + 2.5) / 2 = 2.45

[0071] Calculate P75, which is the value at the 75% position after the data is sorted. For 30 data, the position of P75 is: P = 75% × 30 = 22.5, and P75 should be the average of the 22nd and 23rd data. After sorting, the 22nd data is 3.0, and the 23rd data is 3.1, so P75 = (3.0 + 3.1) / 2 = 3.05.

[0072] Calculate P90, which is the value at the 90% position after the data is sorted. For 30 data, the position of P90 is: P = 90% × 30 = 27, and P90 is the 27th data in the sorted array. After sorting, the 27th data is 3.5, so P90 = 3.5.

[0073] Therefore, P50=2.45, P75=3.05, P90=3.5.

[0074] If the preset period is 30 years, then based on the calculated P50, P75 and P90, it can be assessed that the luminous complementary project has a 50% probability of a power cut rate of 2.45, a 75% probability of a power cut rate of 3.05 and a 90% probability of a power cut rate of 3.5 next year.

[0075] In this embodiment, through the statistical analysis of the power curtailment rate data year by year, the power curtailment rates under different situations are evaluated using probability values ​​such as P50, P75 and P90, providing risk prediction for power generation projects.

[0076] In this embodiment, the application first calculates the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm within the preset years, then calculates the hourly power limit according to the difference between the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm for the preset years and the maximum capacity of the main transformer and the maximum capacity of the transmission line, and then calculates the annual power limit rate for the preset years based on the hourly power limit, and finally calculates the power limit rates with different probabilities based on the annual power limit rate, and evaluates the power limit rate probability of the wind-solar complementary project by calculating the power limit rates with different probabilities.

[0077] The present application also provides a second embodiment, and the contents that are the same or similar to the above embodiment are not repeated in this embodiment. In this embodiment, the ERA5 data includes hourly wind speed and hourly wind direction; step S11, using the ERA5 data and the wind tower data, combined with the wind turbine characteristic power curve, the step of calculating the hourly power generation of the wind farm for a preset number of years includes steps A11 to A12:

[0078] Step A11, obtaining the measured wind speed, and calculating the measured hourly wind speed for a preset number of years based on a correlation equation between the measured wind speed and the hourly wind speed in the ERA5 data, and using the hourly wind direction in the ERA5 data as the measured hourly wind direction for the preset number of years;

[0079] Specifically, ERA5 data includes hourly wind speed and hourly wind direction within a preset period of time. First, the measured wind speed for one year observed by the wind tower is obtained, and the linear regression method is used to fit the relationship between the measured wind speed for one year and the hourly wind speed in the ERA5 data during the same period. The linear regression formula is:

[0080] V 实测 =a*V ERA5 +b (3)

[0081] Among them, V 实测 is the observed wind speed, V ERA5 is the hourly wind speed in the ERA5 data, and a and b are the linear regression coefficients.

[0082] Next, the coefficients a and b of linear regression are calculated by the least squares method. The formula is as follows:

[0083]

[0084] Here, i is the number of hours within the preset period, and n is the upper limit of the number of hours.

[0085] Finally, the measured hourly wind speed for the preset years is inferred based on the linear regression formula and the hourly wind speed within the preset years in the ERA5 data.

[0086] In addition, the measured hourly wind directions for the preset years are close to the hourly wind directions in the ERA5 data.

[0087] Step A12, calculating the hourly power generation of the wind farm for a preset number of years based on the measured hourly wind speed for a preset number of years, the measured hourly wind direction for a preset number of years, combined with the wind turbine characteristic power curve and the wind tower data.

[0088] It should be noted that it is also necessary to obtain the efficiency of the generator sets and systems of the wind farm and the total swept area of ​​each generator set in the wind farm.

[0089] Specifically, according to the formula: P wind(t) = f(V t ,θ t )*η*A (5),

[0090] Calculate the hourly power generation of the wind farm for a preset number of years, where f(V t ,θ t ) is the characteristic power curve function of the fan, V t is the hourly wind speed measured at a certain moment, θ t is the wind direction at this moment, η is the efficiency of the generator set and the system, and A is the total swept area of ​​each generator set in the wind farm.

[0091] In a feasible implementation manner, the wind tower data also includes a topographic map and terrain roughness, and the wind tower data is used to correct the measured hourly wind speed.

[0092] Specifically, the actual hourly wind speed is calculated using the terrain correction formula:

[0093] V 修正t = V t* Z (6)

[0094] Among them, V 修正t is the actual hourly wind speed after correction, and Z is the correction coefficient calculated based on the topographic map and terrain roughness.

[0095] Substitute the corrected wind speed to calculate the power generation of the wind farm at time t:

[0096] P wind (t) = f(V 修正t ,θ t )*η*A (7)

[0097] In this embodiment, the observed one-year wind tower data is fitted with the ERA5 data of the same period to obtain the calculated relationship between the measured hourly wind speed and the hourly wind speed. The measured hourly wind speed of the preset years is then obtained based on the hourly wind speed of the preset years and the wind turbine characteristic power curve function. The measured hourly wind speed calculated can also be corrected by data such as topographic maps and terrain roughness to accurately calculate the power generation of the wind farm.

[0098] The present application also provides a third embodiment, and the contents that are the same or similar to the above embodiment are not repeated in this embodiment. The satellite data includes hourly irradiation data; step S12 uses the satellite data and the measured irradiation data to calculate the hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field for a preset number of years, including steps B11 to B14:

[0099] Step B11, obtaining hourly irradiation data for a preset number of years, and calculating hourly horizontal irradiation and hourly scattered irradiation for the preset number of years according to a correlation equation between the measured irradiation data and the hourly irradiation data;

[0100] It should be noted that hourly irradiance data includes hourly horizontal irradiance data and hourly scattered radiation data, and measured irradiance data includes measured horizontal irradiance data and measured scattered irradiance data. Hourly irradiance data is obtained from satellite data, and measured irradiance data is obtained through one-year observations, and measured irradiance data is also hourly.

[0101] Specifically, first, the observed one-year measured horizontal irradiation data and the hourly horizontal irradiation data of the same period are obtained, and the linear regression method is used to fit the relationship between the measured horizontal irradiation data and the hourly horizontal irradiation. The linear regression formula is:

[0102] H 水平 =a*H solargis水平 +b (8)

[0103] Among them, H 水平 is the measured horizontal irradiance, H solargis水平 is the hourly horizontal irradiation data, a and b are linear regression coefficients, and a and b can be calculated by the least squares method.

[0104] Then, after obtaining the a and b coefficient values, the measured horizontal irradiation for the preset years can be calculated through the linear regression equation.

[0105] The calculation of the measured scattered radiation is similar, and the linear regression formula is:

[0106] H 散射 =a*H solargis散射 +b (9)

[0107] Step B12, obtaining the photovoltaic module parameters, inverter parameters and support parameters of the wind-solar hybrid project;

[0108] It should be noted that the photovoltaic module parameters include module efficiency and temperature coefficient, the inverter parameters include inverter efficiency, and the bracket parameters include installation angle and azimuth.

[0109] Step B13, calculating the total radiation dose based on the hourly horizontal radiation, the hourly scattered radiation and the support parameters;

[0110] Specifically, the total radiation received by the photovoltaic module is calculated using the formula:

[0111] H 组件 =H 水平 *cos(θ)+H 散射 * Scattering factor (10)

[0112] Among them, θ is the solar incidence angle, which is calculated by the bracket parameters, and the scattering factor can be estimated by meteorological data.

[0113] Step B14, calculating the hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field for a preset number of years based on the photovoltaic module parameters, inverter parameters and total irradiation.

[0114] Specifically, firstly, the DC power of the photovoltaic module is calculated according to the gradual power-temperature characteristics. The calculation formula is:

[0115]

[0116] Among them, P 直流 is the DC power of the photovoltaic module, PAZ is the installed capacity of the project, and Es is the irradiance under standard conditions, which is a constant with a value of 1kW / m 2 , η 组件 is the module efficiency, α is the temperature coefficient of the photovoltaic module, T 组件 is the component temperature, T 标准 is the standard temperature.

[0117] In a feasible implementation manner, step B14, the step of calculating the hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field for a preset number of years based on the photovoltaic module parameters, the inverter parameters and the total irradiation, includes:

[0118] Calculate the irradiation temperature of the photovoltaic module, correct the temperature data with the irradiation temperature, and obtain the module temperature;

[0119] The hourly power generation of the PV field for a preset number of years is calculated based on PV module parameters, inverter parameters, module temperature and total irradiation.

[0120] Specifically, the calculation formula for the component temperature of the photovoltaic module is as follows:

[0121] T 组件 = T + ΔT (12)

[0122] Where ΔT is the temperature rise caused by solar radiation, and T is the initial temperature of the PV module.

[0123] Substituting the corrected PV module temperature into equation (11) can calculate the hourly power generation of the PV field for a preset number of years.

[0124] Then calculate the AC power of the photovoltaic module, the calculation formula is:

[0125] P 交流 (t) = P 直流 (t)*η 逆变器 (13)

[0126] Among them, P 交流 (t) is the AC power of the photovoltaic module, η 逆变器 is the efficiency of the inverter.

[0127] Finally, the formula for calculating the hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field in the preset years is:

[0128] P solar (t) = P 交流 (t)*η 其它损耗 *1h (14)

[0129] Among them, η 其它损耗 The power loss is caused by cables, main transformers, box-type substations and other factors.

[0130] For example, refer to Figure 2 Taking the power generation data of wind-solar complementary projects for nearly 30 years as an example, combined with one or more of the above embodiments, the overall technical process of this application is described:

[0131] First, the wind speed measurement and radiation observation are carried out for one year in the wind farm and photovoltaic field of the wind-solar complementary project. In addition to wind speed and radiation, temperature and other data are also recorded. Then, the wind speed model is constructed using the ERA5 long-term data (that is, the hourly wind speed measured for one year is fitted with the hourly wind speed in the ERA5 data to obtain a linear regression equation) to calculate the hourly wind speed of the wind farm in the past 30 years, and the irradiation model is constructed using the solargis long-term data (that is, satellite data) (that is, the measured irradiation data is fitted with the hourly irradiation data in the satellite data to obtain a linear regression equation) to calculate the hourly irradiation of the photovoltaic power station in the past 30 years. Then, obtain the power curve of the wind turbine, the topographic map of the wind farm, the coordinates of the machine site, the roughness and other data to build a power generation calculation model, calculate the hourly power generation of the wind turbine in the past 30 years, collect the tracking home, photovoltaic components, inverters and electrical equipment parameters to arrange the photovoltaic components, build a photovoltaic power generation calculation model, calculate the hourly power generation of the photovoltaic power station group in the past 30 years, and then, calculate the power limit in the same period based on the hourly wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the past 30 years, and count the annual power limit and power limit rate in the past 30 years. Arrange the annual power limit rate from small to large, and calculate the power limit rate under the P50, P75 and P90 probabilities of the wind-solar complementary project. In this way, the future power limit rate probability of the wind-solar complementary project can be evaluated. For example, there is a 90% probability that the power limit rate will be P90 next year.

[0132] The present application also provides a wind-solar hybrid project power limit rate assessment system, including:

[0133] The power generation calculation module is used to calculate the hourly power generation of the wind farm and photovoltaic farm for a preset number of years;

[0134] The power limit calculation module is used to calculate the hourly power limit according to the difference between the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm for a preset number of years and the maximum capacity of the main transformer and the maximum capacity of the transmission line;

[0135] The statistical analysis module is used to calculate the power curtailment rate in different scenarios based on different power curtailment probabilities.

[0136] In addition, the system may also include a data acquisition module for acquiring ERA5 data, wind tower data, satellite data and measured irradiance data.

[0137] The wind-solar complementary project power limit rate assessment system can achieve the beneficial effects brought by the above-mentioned first embodiment and realize the wind-solar complementary project power limit rate assessment.

[0138] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application also provides a computer program storage medium, which includes a computer program. When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the above-mentioned method, and outputs the power limit rate assessment result of the wind-solar complementary project by inputting corresponding wind-solar resource data and design parameters.

[0139] The computer program storage medium can achieve the beneficial effects brought by the first embodiment as described above, and realize the power curtailment rate evaluation of the wind-solar complementary project.

[0140] Finally, it should be noted that the steps in the method of the embodiment of the present application can be adjusted in order, combined and deleted according to actual needs.

[0141] In addition, those skilled in the art will appreciate that all or part of the steps in the various methods of the above embodiments can be completed by instructing the hardware related to the device through a program, and the program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, which can include: a flash drive, a read-only memory (Read-Only Memory), a memory card, ... y Memory, ROM), Random Access Memory (RandomAccess Memory, RAM), disk or CD, etc.

[0142] In addition, those skilled in the art will appreciate that all or part of the steps in the various methods of the above embodiments may be completed by functional modules in the device, which will not be elaborated herein.

[0143] What is disclosed above is only a preferred embodiment of the present application, and it certainly cannot be used to limit the scope of rights of the present application. A person skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the processes of implementing the above embodiments and making equivalent changes according to the claims of the present application still fall within the scope of the invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the power curtailment rate of a wind-solar hybrid project, characterized in that: The method for evaluating the power curtailment rate of the wind-solar complementary project includes: Calculate the hourly power generation of wind farms and photovoltaic farms for a preset number of years; The hourly power limit is calculated based on the difference between the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm for a preset period of time and the maximum capacity of the main transformer and the maximum capacity of the transmission line; The annual power restriction rate of a preset period is calculated based on the hourly power restriction amount, and power restriction rates with different probabilities are calculated based on the annual power restriction rate.

2. The method for evaluating the power curtailment rate of a wind-solar hybrid project according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of calculating the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm for a preset number of years comprises: Using ERA5 data and wind tower data, combined with wind turbine characteristic power curves, calculate the hourly power generation of the wind farm for the preset years; The hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field for the preset years is calculated using satellite data and measured irradiation data.

3. The method for evaluating the power curtailment rate of a wind-solar hybrid project according to claim 2, characterized in that: The ERA5 data includes hourly wind speed and hourly wind direction; The step of using ERA5 data and wind tower data, combined with wind turbine characteristic power curves, to calculate the hourly power generation of the wind farm for a preset number of years includes: Obtaining the measured wind speed, and calculating the measured hourly wind speed for a preset number of years based on a correlation equation between the measured wind speed and the hourly wind speed in the ERA5 data, and using the hourly wind direction in the ERA5 data as the measured hourly wind direction for the preset number of years; The hourly power generation of the wind farm for the preset number of years is calculated according to the actually measured hourly wind speed for the preset number of years and the actually measured hourly wind direction for the preset number of years, in combination with the wind turbine characteristic power curve and the wind tower data.

4. The method for evaluating the power curtailment rate of a wind-solar hybrid project according to claim 3, characterized in that: The wind tower data is used to correct the measured hourly wind speed.

5. The method for evaluating the power curtailment rate of a wind-solar hybrid project according to claim 2, characterized in that: The satellite data include hourly irradiance data; The step of using satellite data and measured irradiation data to calculate the hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field for the preset years includes: Acquire the hourly irradiation data of a preset number of years, and calculate the hourly horizontal irradiation and hourly scattered irradiation of the preset number of years according to a correlation equation between the measured irradiation data and the hourly irradiation data; Obtain the photovoltaic module parameters, inverter parameters and bracket parameters of the wind-solar hybrid project; Calculating a total radiation dose based on the hourly horizontal radiation, the hourly scattered radiation and the support parameters; The hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field for the preset years is calculated based on the photovoltaic component parameters, the inverter parameters and the total irradiation.

6. The method for evaluating the power curtailment rate of a wind-solar hybrid project according to claim 5, characterized in that: The satellite data includes temperature data; The step of calculating the hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field for the preset years based on the photovoltaic module parameters, the inverter parameters and the total irradiation comprises: Calculating the irradiation temperature of the photovoltaic module, and correcting the temperature data with the irradiation temperature to obtain the module temperature; The hourly power generation of the photovoltaic field for the preset years is calculated based on the photovoltaic component parameters, the inverter parameters, the component temperature and the total irradiation.

7. The method for evaluating the power curtailment rate of a wind-solar complementary project according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of calculating the hourly power limit according to the difference between the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm for a preset period of time and the maximum capacity of the main transformer and the maximum capacity of the transmission line comprises: According to the calculation formula: C t =max(0,P wind (t)+P solar (t)-min(M a , M b )) Calculate the hourly power generation, where C t is the power limit at time t, P wind (t) is the power generation of the wind farm at time t, P solar (t) is the power generation of the photovoltaic field at time t, M a is the maximum capacity of the transmission line, M b is the maximum capacity of the main transformer.

8. A wind-solar hybrid project power limit rate assessment system, comprising: The power generation calculation module is used to calculate the hourly power generation of the wind farm and photovoltaic farm for a preset number of years; A power limit calculation module, used to calculate the hourly power limit according to the difference between the hourly power generation of the wind farm and the photovoltaic farm for a preset number of years and the maximum capacity of the main transformer and the maximum capacity of the transmission line; The statistical analysis module is used to calculate the power curtailment rate in different scenarios based on different power curtailment probabilities.

9. The wind-solar hybrid project power limit rate assessment system according to claim 8, characterized in that: The system also includes a data acquisition module for acquiring the ERA5 data, the wind tower data, the satellite data and the measured irradiance data.

10. A computer program storage medium, characterized in that: The computer program storage medium includes a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7, and outputs a power limit rate assessment result of a wind-solar complementary project by inputting corresponding wind-solar resource data and design parameters.

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