Novel power market behavior strategy determination method for multiple users in power system

Abstract

The invention relates to a novel power market behavior strategy determination method for multiple users in a power system, and the method comprises the following steps: collecting the data of the multiple users in the power system, and building an excitation model according to the power market behavior change data; checking the change reason of the multivariate user data under the novel power system through the excitation model, feeding back the determined change, and formulating a strategy according to the feedback; and discussing and analyzing the formulated strategy through a Delphi method. According to the novel method for determining the power market behavior strategy of the multi-user in the power system, analysis of the power market behavior strategy of the multi-user in the power system is carried out through an excitation model, the excitation model helps to guide the power system to check the change reason, and then the change is fed back to the strategy through the determined change. The viewpoints are combined to provide the relationship between the strategy and the motivation, when potential driving factors change, the influence needs to be analyzed, the strategy can be possibly changed, and a structure which can be used for being fed back to strategy making work is provided.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power systems, and specifically to a method for determining the power market behavior strategies of multiple users under a new power system. Background Art

[0002] Building a new power system with new energy as the main body has become the future development form of energy and power. The access of a high proportion of new energy poses new challenges to the power system, and the market needs to play a more important role in resource allocation to promote the safe, stable operation and sustainable development of the system. Among them, under the background of the continuous deepening of the power market reform, the collaborative market behavior of users has a more profound impact on the consumption of new energy and the efficiency and stability of the new power system, and the user side has gradually become the focus of market construction.

[0003] For example, the method for determining the power market behavior strategies of multiple users under a new power system proposed in Chinese Patent 202410910678.7 fully considers the multiple participating entities and multi-level markets in the power market, and can promote the construction of a new power system.

[0004] However, there are many factors affecting power market behavior strategies. External factors such as changing markets, world events, and disruptive new technologies require timely adjustment of power market behavior strategies. Internal factors can also affect power market behavior strategies. Therefore, a method for determining the power market behavior strategies of multiple users under a new power system needs to be proposed to solve the above problems. Summary of the Invention

[0005] Aiming at the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention provides a method for determining the power market behavior strategies of multiple users under a new power system, which has the advantages of timely analyzing and detecting the reasons for strategy changes and combining artificial prediction of the prediction model to improve the accuracy of strategy determination, and solves the problem that there are many factors affecting power market behavior strategies. External factors such as changing markets, world events, and disruptive new technologies require timely adjustment of power market behavior strategies. Internal factors can also affect power market behavior strategies.

[0006] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solution: A method for determining the power market behavior strategies of multiple users under a new power system, including the following steps:

[0007] Collect data of multiple users in the power system and power market behavior change data to establish an incentive model;

[0008] Check the reasons for data changes of multiple users under the new power system through the incentive model, feedback the determined changes, and formulate strategies according to the feedback;

[0009] Discuss and analyze the formulated strategies through the Delphi method;

[0010] Modify and optimize the strategy according to the analysis results to obtain the power system strategy required for the current multi-user power market.

[0011] Furthermore, before establishing the incentive model, establish a capability roadmap and a technology roadmap based on the collected data.

[0012] Furthermore, according to the development dependencies and resource availability, the capability roadmap places capabilities on a timeline, and the timeline will determine the current state of the capabilities and the dependencies between the basic components and capabilities.

[0013] Furthermore, the technology roadmap implements technologies according to predictions, dependencies, and resource arrangements, has an internal connection with the capability roadmap, and provides feedback to the capability roadmap.

[0014] Furthermore, the elements of the incentive model include stakeholders, drivers, evaluations, goals, requirements, constraints, principles, capabilities, resources, and action plans.

[0015] Furthermore, the stakeholders: those who participate in the change, including internal roles, internal participants, external roles, or external participants;

[0016] Drivers: factors that drive the change;

[0017] Evaluations: the outputs of the evaluations performed, which are weaknesses or strengths;

[0018] Goals: the desired final states;

[0019] Requirements: define the methods to achieve the objectives;

[0020] Constraints: restrictions on the system;

[0021] Principles: overall and broad-based behavioral guidelines;

[0022] Capabilities: capabilities executed in the field of power systems;

[0023] Resources: assets owned by the power system;

[0024] Action plans: plans to obtain capabilities and achieve the goals.

[0025] Furthermore, the specific implementation process of the Delphi method is as follows:

[0026] In the first step, send a letter about the strategy issue to the power market analysis experts of multi-users in the power system, and put forward the issues to be investigated or the strategy.

[0027] Second, statistically analyze, synthesize, and organize the expert opinions obtained from the replies, summarize several views under one question, create a second-round form with these opinions, and send it back to each expert for them to further make evaluations and clarify their reasons;

[0028] Third, after receiving the second-round opinions, the strategy analysis team further summarizes and organizes them, further concentrates the opinions, creates a third-round form, and once again asks the experts to conduct analysis and judgment;

[0029] Fourth, in accordance with the requirements of the strategists, conduct a targeted opinion survey of the experts who put forward unique insights to enable them to conduct a deeper demonstration.

[0030] Furthermore, the strategy issue is the power market behavior strategy of multiple users under the power system formulated after the feedback of the incentive model.

[0031] Furthermore, after the Delphi method analysis, a quantitative strategy method is used to optimize the strategy plan, which is divided into a deterministic strategy method, a risk-based strategy method, and an uncertain strategy method;

[0032] Deterministic strategy method: As long as the preconditions of the strategy mathematical model are met, a specific result can be obtained, which is used for the deterministic strategy method;

[0033] Risk-based strategy method: In the case where the natural state of future events is uncertain but the occurrence probability is known, the strategist selects the optimal plan by calculating the expected profit and loss values of each plan;

[0034] Uncertain strategy method: The strategist is not sure about the results of future events, but can estimate the profit and loss values of future events in various natural states through the analysis of various factors.

[0035] Compared with the prior art, the technical solution of this application has the following beneficial effects:

[0036] 1. The method for determining the power market behavior strategy of multiple users under the new power system analyzes the power market behavior strategy of multiple users under the power system through an incentive model. The incentive model will help guide the power system to check the reasons for changes, and then feedback them into the strategy through the determined changes. Combining these views provides the relationship between strategy and motivation. When potential driving factors change, it is necessary to analyze the impacts and possibly change the strategy, providing a structure that can be used to feedback into the strategic formulation work.

[0037] 2. Method for determining power market behavior strategies of multiple users under the new power system. Through the Delphi method, a feedback-based inquiry survey is conducted. The advantage of the inquiry survey method is that experts do not know each other's names, and the consultation and answers are carried out by letter. Therefore, factors such as personal authority, seniority, eloquence, persuasion, and pressure will not affect the feedback of opinions, which is conducive to expressing one's views truthfully and frankly. Moreover, due to the adoption of the multi-round feedback method, opinions become more and more concentrated, further improving the reliability of the strategy. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0038] Figure 1 Flowchart of the method for determining power market behavior strategies of multiple users under the new power system of the present invention;

[0039] Figure 2 Flowchart of the incentive model of the method for determining power market behavior strategies of multiple users under the new power system of the present invention;

[0040] Figure 3 Flowchart of the Delphi method of the method for determining power market behavior strategies of multiple users under the new power system of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0041] Next, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative work shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0042] Please refer to Figures 1-3 , the method for determining power market behavior strategies of multiple users under the new power system in this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0043] Collect data of multiple users in the power system and data on changes in power market behavior to establish an incentive model;

[0044] Check the reasons for data changes of multiple users under the new power system through the incentive model, feedback the determined changes, and formulate strategies according to the feedback;

[0045] Discuss and analyze the formulated strategies through the Delphi method;

[0046] Modify and optimize the strategy according to the analysis results to obtain the power system strategy required for the current power market of multiple users.

[0047] In this embodiment, when establishing the incentive model, a capability roadmap and a technology roadmap for the power market behavior strategies of multiple users under the adopted power system are first established.

[0048] Specifically, there is an internal connection between the technology roadmap and the capabilities roadmap, which provides feedback to the capabilities roadmap. The capabilities roadmap places capabilities on a timeline based on development dependencies and resource availability. The timeline will determine the current state of the capabilities and the dependencies between the basic components and capabilities. The technology roadmap arranges technology implementation based on predictions, dependencies, and resources.

[0049] In this embodiment, the elements of the incentive model include the following:

[0050] Stakeholders: Those who participate in the change, including internal roles, internal participants, external roles, or external participants;

[0051] Drivers: Factors that drive the change;

[0052] Evaluations: The outputs of the evaluations performed, which are weaknesses or strengths;

[0053] Goals: The desired final states;

[0054] Requirements: Define the methods to achieve the goals;

[0055] Constraints: Limitations on the system;

[0056] Principles: Overall, broad-based behavioral guidelines;

[0057] Capabilities: Capabilities executed in the field of power systems;

[0058] Resources: Assets owned by the power system;

[0059] Action plans: Plans to achieve the goals by obtaining capabilities.

[0060] Please refer to Figure 2 , for the specific stakeholder analysis drivers. The drivers provide the content for the evaluations. After the evaluations, the goals are obtained. The requirements provide data for the goals and principles. The principles provide behavioral guidelines for the goals. The constraints limit the requirements. The multi-user electricity market behavior strategy analysis in the power system is carried out through the incentive model. The incentive model will help guide the power system to examine the reasons for the changes, and then feedback them into the strategy through the determined changes. Combining these viewpoints provides the relationship between the strategy and the motivation. When the potential drivers change, it is necessary to analyze the impacts and may change the strategy, providing a structure that can be used to feedback into the strategic formulation work.

[0061] Please refer to Figure 3 , for the specific implementation process of the Delphi method as follows:

[0062] S1. Send a letter to the electricity market analysis experts of multiple users under the power system regarding the strategy issues, and put forward the issues that need to be investigated or the strategies.

[0063] S2. Statistically analyze, synthesize, and organize the expert opinions obtained from the replies, summarize several viewpoints under one question, create a second-round form with these opinions, and send it back to each expert for their further evaluation and clarification of the reasons;

[0064] S3. After receiving the second-round opinions, the strategy analysis team further summarizes and organizes them, further concentrates the opinions, creates a third-round form, and once again asks the experts to conduct an analysis and judgment;

[0065] S4. According to the requirements of the strategists, conduct a targeted opinion survey of the experts who put forward unique insights to enable them to conduct a deeper demonstration.

[0066] Specifically, after the above four steps of investigation, analysis, and synthesis, a relatively accurate conclusion is drawn. The advantage of this method is that it can overcome the drawback of echoing authoritative opinions and not daring to put forward one's own opinions during face-to-face meetings, and the cost is not high. The strategy issue is the power market behavior strategy of multiple users under the power system formulated after the feedback of the incentive model. After Delphi method analysis, the quantitative strategy method is used to optimize the strategy plan, which is divided into deterministic strategy method, risk-based strategy method, and uncertain strategy method;

[0067] Deterministic strategy method: As long as the preconditions of the strategy mathematical model are met, a specific result can be obtained, which is used for the deterministic strategy method;

[0068] Risk-based strategy method: In the case where the natural state of future events is uncertain but the occurrence probability is known, the strategist selects the optimal plan by calculating the expected profit and loss values of each plan;

[0069] Uncertain strategy method: The strategist is unsure of the results of future events, but can estimate the profit and loss values of future events in various natural states through the analysis of various factors.

[0070] In summary, the method for determining the power market behavior strategies of multiple users in the new power system analyzes the power market behavior strategies of multiple users in the power system through an incentive model. The incentive model will help guide the power system to check the reasons for changes and then feedback them into the strategies through the determined changes. Combining these viewpoints provides the relationship between strategies and motivations. When potential driving factors change, it is necessary to analyze the impacts and possibly change the strategies, providing a structure that can be used to feedback into the strategic formulation work. Through the Delphi method, a mailed inquiry survey with feedback is conducted. The advantage of the mailed inquiry survey method is that experts do not know each other's names, and the consultation and answers are carried out in writing. Therefore, factors such as personal authority, seniority, eloquence, persuasion, and pressure will not affect the feedback of opinions, which is conducive to frankly expressing one's own views. Moreover, due to the adoption of the multi-round feedback method, the opinions become more and more concentrated, further improving the reliability of the strategies, and solving the problem that there are many factors affecting the power market behavior strategies. External factors such as changing markets, world events, and disruptive new technologies require timely adjustment of the power market behavior strategies, and internal factors will also affect the power market behavior strategies.

[0071] It should be noted that in this article, relational terms such as first and second are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply any actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the term "comprising", "including" or any other variant thereof is intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or device comprising a series of elements not only includes those elements, but also includes other elements not expressly listed, or elements inherent to such process, method, article or device. Without further limitation, an element defined by the statement "comprising an..." does not exclude the existence of additional identical elements in the process, method, article or device comprising the said element.

[0072] Although the embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that various changes, modifications, substitutions and variations can be made to these embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the present invention. The scope of the present invention is defined by the appended claims and their equivalents.

Claims

1. Method for determining power market behavior strategies of multiple users in a new power system, characterized in that, It includes the following steps: Collect data of multiple users in the power system and data on changes in power market behavior to establish an incentive model; Check the reasons for data changes of multiple users under the new power system through the incentive model, feedback the determined changes, and formulate strategies according to the feedback; Discuss and analyze the formulated strategies through the Delphi method; Modify and optimize the strategies based on the analysis results to obtain the power system strategies required for the current power market of multiple users.

2. The method for determining the power market behavior strategy of multiple users under the new power system according to claim 1, characterized in that Before establishing the incentive model, establish a capacity roadmap and a technology roadmap through the collected data.

3. The method for determining the power market behavior strategy of multiple users under the new power system according to claim 2, characterized in that The capacity roadmap places capabilities on a timeline according to the developed dependencies and resource availability. The timeline will determine the current state of the capabilities and the dependencies between the basic components and capabilities.

4. The method for determining the power market behavior strategy of multiple users under the new power system according to claim 3, characterized in that, The technology roadmap implements technologies according to predictions, dependencies, and resource arrangements, has an internal connection with the capacity roadmap, and provides feedback to the capacity roadmap.

5. The method for determining the power market behavior strategy of multiple users under the new power system according to claim 1, characterized in that, The elements of the incentive model include stakeholders, drivers, evaluations, goals, requirements, constraints, principles, capabilities, resources, and action plans.

6. The method for determining the power market behavior strategy of multiple users under the new power system according to claim 5, wherein The stakeholders: those who participate in the change, including internal roles, internal participants, external roles, or external participants; Drivers: factors that drive the change; Evaluations: the outputs of the performed evaluations, which are weaknesses or strengths; Goals: the desired final states; Requirements: define the methods to achieve the goals; Constraints: limitations on the system; Principles: overall and broad-based behavioral guidelines; Capabilities: capabilities implemented in the field of power systems; Resources: assets owned by the power system; Action plans: plans to obtain capabilities and achieve goals.

7. The method for determining the power market behavior strategy of multiple users under the new power system according to claim 1, wherein The specific implementation process of the Delphi method is as follows: In the first step, send a letter about the strategy issue to power market analysis experts of multiple users under the power system, and put forward the issues to be investigated or the strategies; In the second step, statistically summarize, synthesize, and organize the expert opinions obtained from the reply letters, generalize several views under one issue, and make these opinions into a second-round form, then send it back to each expert for them to further make evaluations and clarify their reasons; In the third step, after receiving the second-round opinions, the strategy analysis team further summarizes and organizes them, further concentrates the opinions, makes a third-round form, and asks the experts to make analysis and judgments again; In the fourth step, according to the requirements of the strategists, conduct a targeted opinion survey on the experts who put forward unique insights to make them conduct a deeper demonstration.

8. The method for determining the power market behavior strategy of multiple users under the new power system according to claim 7, characterized in that The strategy issue is the power market behavior strategy of multiple users under the power system formulated after the feedback of the incentive model.

9. The method for determining the power market behavior strategy of multiple users under the new power system according to claim 1, characterized in that After the Delphi method analysis, the quantitative strategy method is used to optimize the strategy plan, which is divided into deterministic strategy methods, risk-based strategy methods, and uncertain strategy methods; Deterministic strategy methods: As long as the preconditions of the strategy mathematical model are met, specific results can be obtained, which are used for deterministic strategies; Risk-based strategy methods: In the case where the natural state of future events is uncertain but the occurrence probability is known, the strategist selects the optimal plan by calculating the expected profit and loss values of each plan; Uncertain strategy method: A strategy method in which the decision-maker is uncertain about the outcome of future events but can estimate the profit and loss values of future events under various natural states through the analysis of various factors.

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