Power communication network risk prediction method, system and device under typhoon disaster and medium

Abstract

The invention provides a power communication network risk prediction method, system and device under typhoon disasters and a medium, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining the typhoon bearing instantaneous wind speeds of different composite optical cable ground wires in a target network region, obtaining the line segment instantaneous failure rates of the different composite optical cable ground wires based on a Poisson model, and carrying out the prediction of the typhoon bearing instantaneous wind speeds of the different composite optical cable ground wires; line fault probabilities are obtained based on a Markov model, and after all line fault probabilities in each communication line are subjected to series analysis to obtain communication line fault probabilities, a power operation risk value is obtained according to the number of regional fault lines obtained according to all line fault probabilities in a target network region; and obtaining a communication operation risk value according to the obtained communication fault loss binomial distribution and the corresponding communication network deterministic damage distribution, and carrying out fusion processing on the two values to obtain a regional comprehensive risk prediction value. According to the method, the scientificity and the accuracy of operation risk prediction of the power communication network can be effectively improved, and reliable support is provided for fault early warning and risk response of the power communication network under typhoon disasters.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power systems, and in particular to a method, system, equipment and medium for predicting the risk of a power communication network under typhoon disasters. Background Art

[0002] As a dedicated communication network for grid information exchange services, the power communication network is an important foundation for the development of intelligent power systems and a key infrastructure related to social stability and development. Figure 1 In the cyber-physical power system (CPPS) shown in the figure, the coupling relationship between the optical cable and the power line in the optical fiber composite overhead ground wire (OPGW) is shown. The electromagnetic field on the power line may interfere with the fiber-optic communication signal in the optical cable, affecting the communication quality. At the same time, as the carrier of the communication network, the performance and stability of the optical cable are also directly related to the realization of functions such as real-time monitoring, fault diagnosis and remote control of the power system. The mutual coordination between the power network and the communication network maintains the stability of the power system in dynamic operation and realizes effective closed-loop control.

[0003] However, typhoon disasters often lead to failures such as the breakage of overhead communication lines and transmission lines in the power transmission system, posing a significant challenge to the safe and stable operation of power communication networks. Therefore, how to timely perceive and reliably predict the risk of power communication network failures during typhoon disasters has become an important research topic for effectively addressing power communication failures during typhoon disasters. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for predicting the risk of electric power communication networks under typhoon disasters. The method obtains the line failure probability by scientifically analyzing the instantaneous wind speed carried by the composite optical cable ground wire in the typhoon wind field, and performs fault risk prediction and fusion analysis on the electric power network and the communication network based on the highly coupled relationship between the electric power network and the communication network to obtain a comprehensive risk prediction value of the electric power communication network. This method can effectively improve the scientificity and accuracy of the operational risk prediction of the electric power communication network under typhoon disasters, provide reliable support for fault warning and risk response of the electric power communication network under typhoon disasters, and thus ensure the safe and stable operation of the electric power communication network.

[0005] In order to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, a method, system, computer equipment and storage medium for predicting the risk of power communication network under typhoon disaster are provided.

[0006] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting the risk of a power communication network under a typhoon disaster, the method comprising the following steps: Obtaining the instantaneous typhoon wind speed of different composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, and obtaining the corresponding line segment instantaneous failure rate based on the Poisson model according to the instantaneous typhoon wind speed; According to the instantaneous failure rate of the line section of different composite optical cable ground wires, the corresponding line failure probability is obtained based on the Markov model, and all line failure probabilities in each communication line are analyzed in series to obtain the corresponding communication line failure probability; Obtaining the number of regional fault lines based on the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground lines in the target network area, and obtaining a power operation risk value based on the number of regional fault lines; Obtaining a binomial distribution of communication failure losses and a corresponding communication network deterministic damage distribution in the target network area, and obtaining a communication operation risk value based on the binomial distribution of communication failure losses and the communication network deterministic damage distribution; The power operation risk value and the communication operation risk value are fused to obtain a regional comprehensive risk prediction value.

[0007] Furthermore, the step of obtaining the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon carried by different composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area includes: Acquire the wind field center position and the wind field positions of different composite optical cable ground wires in real time, and obtain the wind field center spacing of different composite optical cable ground wires based on the wind field position and the wind field center position; According to the wind field center spacing of different composite optical cable ground wires, the radial wind speed and tangential wind speed carried by the line are obtained; According to the vector sum of the radial wind speed and the tangential wind speed carried by the ground wires of different composite optical cables, the corresponding typhoon instantaneous wind speed is obtained.

[0008] Furthermore, the step of obtaining the radial wind speed and the tangential wind speed carried by the line according to the wind field center spacing of different composite optical cable ground wires includes: According to the wind field center spacing of different composite optical cable ground wires, the corresponding line-carrying radial wind speed is obtained based on the exponential decay principle; the line-carrying radial wind speed is expressed as: Among them, V i，d represents the radial wind speed of the ground wire of the i-th composite optical cable; V0 is the moving speed of the typhoon center; r i represents the wind field center distance of the ith composite optical cable ground wire, R max Indicates the maximum wind speed radius; According to the wind field center spacing, maximum wind speed radius and maximum circulation wind speed of different composite optical cable ground wires, the corresponding line-carrying tangential wind speed is obtained; the line-carrying tangential wind speed is expressed as: Among them, V i，r represents the line-carrying tangential wind speed of the i-th composite optical cable ground wire; r i V represents the wind field center distance of the i-th composite optical cable ground wire; rmax and R max Indicates the maximum circulation wind speed and maximum wind speed radius.

[0009] Furthermore, the step of obtaining the corresponding line segment instantaneous failure rate based on the Poisson model according to the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon includes: Obtain the effective wind speed modulus value of the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon, and substitute the effective wind speed modulus value, the line design bearing wind speed value, and the line unit length into the Poisson model to calculate and obtain the instantaneous failure rate of the line segment; the instantaneous failure rate of the line segment is expressed as: Among them, λ wire，i(t) represents the instantaneous failure rate of the line segment of the ith composite optical cable ground wire at time t; v i (t) represents the effective wind speed modulus of the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon carried by the ground wire of the i-th composite optical cable; V d，wire Indicates the line design bearing wind speed value; ΔL i represents the unit length of the ground wire of the i-th composite optical cable; a and b represent constants.

[0010] Furthermore, the step of obtaining the number of regional fault lines based on the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground lines in the target network area, and obtaining the power operation risk value based on the number of regional fault lines includes: According to the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, the number of faulty lines in the area is obtained based on binomial distribution; According to the number of regional fault lines and the total number of regional lines, a regional power line loss rate is obtained, and the regional power line loss rate is used as the power operation risk value.

[0011] Furthermore, the step of obtaining the binomial distribution of communication failure losses and the corresponding communication network deterministic damage distribution of the target network area includes: Obtaining a binomial distribution of regional communication failure losses based on a communication line failure probability of each communication line in the target network area; Obtain the proportion of node out-of-sequence links corresponding to different fault scenarios in the binomial distribution of regional communication fault loss, and obtain the corresponding communication network deterministic damage based on the inverse of the proportion of node out-of-sequence links, and obtain the communication network deterministic damage distribution based on the communication network deterministic damage of all fault scenarios.

[0012] Furthermore, the step of obtaining a communication operation risk value based on the communication failure loss binomial distribution and the communication network deterministic damage distribution includes: The communication operation risk value is obtained according to the cumulative value of the product of the communication network failure probability and the corresponding communication network deterministic damage under different failure scenarios in the binomial distribution of regional communication failure loss; the communication operation risk value is expressed as: Where, Where R represents the communication operation risk value; Bl N (n) and C n They represent the communication network failure probability and the corresponding communication network deterministic damage in the failure scenario where there are n out-of-order nodes among N communication nodes in the binomial distribution of regional communication failure loss; p line，l represents the communication line failure probability of the lth communication line.

[0013] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a system for predicting the risk of a power communication network under a typhoon disaster, the system comprising: A line segment failure analysis module is used to obtain the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon bearing of different composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, and obtain the corresponding line segment instantaneous failure rate based on the Poisson model according to the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon bearing; The line fault analysis module is used to obtain the corresponding line fault probability based on the Markov model according to the instantaneous failure rate of the line section of different composite optical cable ground wires, and to perform a series analysis on all line fault probabilities in each communication line to obtain the corresponding communication line failure probability; A power risk analysis module, configured to obtain the number of regional fault lines based on the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, and obtain a power operation risk value based on the number of regional fault lines; a communication risk analysis module, configured to obtain a communication failure loss binomial distribution and a corresponding communication network deterministic damage distribution in the target network area, and obtain a communication operation risk value based on the communication failure loss binomial distribution and the communication network deterministic damage distribution; The comprehensive analysis module is used to fuse the power operation risk value and the communication operation risk value to obtain a regional comprehensive risk prediction value.

[0014] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the steps of the above method when executing the computer program.

[0015] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, wherein the computer program implements the steps of the above method when executed by a processor.

[0016] The above-mentioned present invention provides a method, system, computer equipment and storage medium for predicting the risk of power communication network under typhoon disasters, by obtaining the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon carried by different composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, obtaining the corresponding line segment instantaneous failure rate based on the Poisson model according to the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon carried, and obtaining the corresponding line failure probability based on the Markov model according to the instantaneous failure rate of the line segment of different composite optical cable ground wires, and then performing a series analysis on all line failure probabilities in each communication line to obtain the corresponding communication line failure probability, obtaining the number of regional fault lines according to the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, obtaining the power operation risk value according to the number of regional fault lines, and obtaining the communication fault loss binomial distribution and the corresponding communication network deterministic damage distribution of the target network area, obtaining the communication operation risk value according to the communication fault loss binomial distribution and the communication network deterministic damage distribution, and fusing the power operation risk value and the communication operation risk value to obtain a technical solution for a regional comprehensive risk prediction value. Compared with existing technologies, this method for predicting the risk of power communication networks under typhoon disasters can effectively improve the scientificity and accuracy of the risk prediction of power communication network operations under typhoon disasters, provide reliable support for fault warning and risk response of power communication networks under typhoon disasters, and thus ensure the safe and stable operation of power communication networks. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0017] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the coupling relationship between the power network and the communication network in the power cyber-physical system; Figure 2 1 is a flow chart of a method for predicting the risk of a power communication network under a typhoon disaster in an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of the overhead line structure and the positional relationship between the typhoon and the composite optical cable ground wire in an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 4 Schematic diagram of the relationship between the operational stability of the communication network and the number of initial communication nodes when the number of out-of-sequence nodes is the same in an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 5 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a power communication network risk prediction system under typhoon disasters according to an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 6 1 is a diagram showing the internal structure of a computer device according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0018] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and beneficial effects of the present invention more clear, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. Obviously, the embodiments described below are part of the embodiments of the present invention and are only used to illustrate the present invention, but are not used to limit the scope of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0019] In one embodiment, Figure 2 As shown, a method for predicting the risk of power communication network under typhoon disaster is provided, comprising the following steps: S11. Obtain the instantaneous typhoon wind speed of different composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, and obtain the corresponding line segment instantaneous failure rate based on the Poisson model according to the instantaneous typhoon wind speed; wherein, the target network area can be understood as the power communication network area that needs to be analyzed for the impact of typhoon disasters in actual applications. The composite optical cable ground wire in the target network area is a special optical cable that integrates power transmission and communication functions. It cleverly embeds the optical fiber unit into the metal conductor, which not only retains the conductive and lightning protection functions of the traditional ground wire, but also realizes high-speed and efficient communication through optical fiber transmission, that is, there is a high coupling relationship between the optical cable and the power line in the composite optical cable ground wire, such as Figure 1 As shown, in the power information-physical system, the bottom is the power network composed of power lines and power nodes in the composite optical cable ground wire, and the top is the communication network composed of optical cables and communication nodes in the composite optical cable ground wire. The power network provides operating power for the communication network, and the communication network provides adjustment control commands for the power network.

[0020] Considering that the power network and the communication network are highly coupled, extreme weather will affect the stable operation of both the power network and the communication network. In order to ensure the reliability of fault analysis and improve the analysis efficiency as much as possible, this embodiment preferably uses the same overhead line fault model to calculate the power line failure rate and the communication line failure rate. The overhead line structure of the application scenario and the position relationship between the typhoon and the transmission line are as follows: Figure 3 shown.

[0021] Specifically, the step of obtaining the instantaneous typhoon wind speed carried by different composite optical cable ground lines in the target network area includes: obtaining the wind field center position and the wind field positions of different composite optical cable ground lines in real time, and obtaining the wind field center spacing of different composite optical cable ground lines based on the wind field positions and the wind field center positions; wherein, the wind field center position and the wind field positions of different composite optical cable ground lines will change with the movement of the actual typhoon center, and the actual wind speed and potential failure risk carried by optical cables at different distances from the wind field center are different, so it is necessary to monitor and obtain corresponding data in real time to accurately analyze the wind field center spacing of different composite optical cable ground lines at different times under typhoon disasters. Specifically, the wind field center spacing can be expressed as: r i =6371arccos(sin y0 sin y i +cos y0 cos y i cos(x0-x i )) Where, (x0, y0) represents the center position of the wind field; (x i ,y i ) and r i They represent the wind field position and wind field center distance of the i-th composite optical cable ground wire respectively.

[0022] According to the wind field center spacing of different composite optical cable ground wires, the line-carrying radial wind speed and the line-carrying tangential wind speed are obtained; wherein the line-carrying radial wind speed can be understood as the moving wind speed and the circulating wind speed of the typhoon wind field at the corresponding wind field center spacing; specifically, the step of obtaining the line-carrying radial wind speed and the line-carrying tangential wind speed according to the wind field center spacing of different composite optical cable ground wires includes: According to the wind field center spacing of different composite optical cable ground wires, the corresponding line-carrying radial wind speed is obtained based on the exponential decay principle. The exponential decay principle can be understood as the exponential decay relationship between typhoon wind speed and distance. Specifically, the line-carrying radial wind speed is expressed as: Among them, V i，d represents the radial wind speed carried by the ground wire of the i-th composite optical cable; V0 is the moving speed of the typhoon center; represents the attenuation coefficient based on the Miyazaki model, r i represents the wind field center distance of the ith composite optical cable ground wire, R max represents the maximum wind speed radius; the Miyazaki model is the wind speed calculation model proposed by Miyazaki.

[0023] According to the wind field center spacing, maximum wind speed radius and maximum circulation wind speed of different composite optical cable ground wires, the corresponding line-carrying tangential wind speed is obtained; wherein, the line-carrying tangential wind speed can be understood as the corresponding circulation wind speed obtained by using the Rankine model based on the assumption that the typhoon has circular symmetry; wherein, the Rankine model is a model that assumes that the typhoon has circular symmetry and calculates the typhoon circulation wind speed; specifically, the line-carrying tangential wind speed is expressed as: Where, V rmax =V max -V0e -π / 10 Among them, V i，r represents the line-carrying tangential wind speed of the i-th composite optical cable ground wire; r i V represents the wind field center distance of the i-th composite optical cable ground wire; r max and R max Indicates the maximum circulation wind speed and maximum wind speed radius; V max Indicates the wind speed near the center of the wind field.

[0024] According to the vector sum of the radial wind speed and the tangential wind speed of the ground wire of different composite optical cables, the corresponding typhoon instantaneous wind speed is obtained; that is, the typhoon instantaneous wind speed is expressed as V i (r)=V i，r +V i，d , V i (t) represents the instantaneous typhoon wind speed carried by the ground wire of the i-th composite optical cable at time t.

[0025] After obtaining the instantaneous typhoon wind speed of different composite optical cable ground wires at different times through the above method steps, the corresponding failure probability can be analyzed based on the instantaneous wind speed on the optical cable. In order to ensure the simplicity and scientific nature of the failure probability analysis, this embodiment preferably first solves the failure rate of the optical cable line under the typhoon disaster (the number of failures of the optical cable line per unit time), and then selects a suitable Poisson model (which can effectively represent the probability of the "next" failure of the target object) based on the corresponding fault characteristics to characterize the random process related to the optical cable line (transmission line) failure, so as to determine its failure probability during the typhoon disaster affected period. It should be noted that in actual applications, the relevant parameters in the Poisson model can be obtained by fitting the relevant data of the pre-selected model construction, and are not specifically limited here.

[0026] Specifically, the step of obtaining the corresponding line segment instantaneous failure rate based on the Poisson model according to the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon includes: Obtain the effective wind speed modulus value of the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon, and substitute the effective wind speed modulus value, the line design bearing wind speed value, and the line unit length into the Poisson model to calculate and obtain the instantaneous failure rate of the line segment; the instantaneous failure rate of the line segment is expressed as: Among them, λ wire，i (t) represents the instantaneous failure rate of the line segment of the i-th composite optical cable ground wire at time t; v i (t) represents the effective wind speed modulus of the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon carried by the ground wire of the i-th composite optical cable; V d，wire Indicates the line design bearing wind speed value; ΔL i represents the unit length of the ground wire of the i-th composite optical cable; a and b represent constants.

[0027] S12. Based on the instantaneous failure rate of the line segments of different composite optical cable ground wires, the corresponding line failure probability is obtained based on the Markov model, and all line failure probabilities in each communication line are analyzed in series to obtain the corresponding communication line failure probability; wherein the line failure probability obtained based on the Markov model can be expressed as: Among them, p wire，i (t0, t0+Δt) represents the line failure probability of the i-th composite optical cable ground wire in the time period (t0, t0+Δt); λ wire，i(t) is the instantaneous failure rate of the line segment of the i-th composite optical cable ground wire at time t.

[0028] Since each communication line in the target network area can be understood as a series model consisting of multiple optical cables, the corresponding communication line failure probability can be expressed as follows based on the knowledge of probability theory: Among them, p wire，i represents the line failure probability of the ground wire of the i-th composite optical cable; p line，l represents the communication line failure probability of the lth communication line; L W，l Represents the set of optical cable lines for the lth communication line.

[0029] S13. Obtaining the number of regional fault lines based on the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, and obtaining a power operation risk value based on the number of regional fault lines; wherein the number of regional fault lines can be understood as the total number of fault lines that can be determined based on the obtained line failure probability of each composite optical cable ground wire; and the corresponding power operation risk value can be understood as the power line loss rate obtained by analyzing the determined total number of fault lines; specifically, the steps of obtaining the number of regional fault lines based on the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, and obtaining the power operation risk value based on the number of regional fault lines include: According to the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, the number of regional fault lines is obtained based on the binomial distribution. Specifically, considering that the power network risk consists of fault events and corresponding fault occurrence probabilities, and in actual applications, the fault events of each composite optical cable ground wire occur independently, the number of regional fault lines must obey the binomial distribution law, that is: N fai| ~B(N1,p wire，i ) Where N1 represents the total number of lines in the power network; p wire，i represents the line failure probability of the ground wire of the i-th composite optical cable; N fail represents the number of regional fault lines. The corresponding process of obtaining it through the experimental method is: first set the typhoon parameters, calculate the fault probability, and then set the fault probability to p wire，i , the probability of not appearing is 1-p wire，i Taking all communication lines as the sample space, a coin tossing experiment is used to simulate whether each communication line has a fault. 1 (the front of the coin) is set as a fault with a probability of p. wire，i， 0 (the back of the coin) is no fault, with a probability of 1-p wire，i ; The total number of 1s obtained in the final statistics is the required N fail .

[0030] According to the number of regional fault lines and the total number of regional lines, the regional power line loss rate is obtained, and the regional power line loss rate is used as the power operation risk value; that is, the power operation risk value can be expressed as: Where R LLR Indicates the power operation risk value.

[0031] S14. Obtain the binomial distribution of communication failure losses and the corresponding communication network deterministic damage distribution of the target network area, and obtain a communication operation risk value based on the binomial distribution of communication failure losses and the communication network deterministic damage distribution; wherein, the binomial distribution of communication failure losses can be understood as a binomial regular distribution of the communication line failure loss probability determined by combining the communication line failure probability of each communication line, taking into account that the failure events of each node in the communication network are independent of each other; the corresponding communication network deterministic damage distribution includes network deterministic losses corresponding to different distributed node disorder events in the binomial distribution of communication failure losses.

[0032] In practical applications, the failure of a communication network node manifests itself as the loss of information flow. Furthermore, in any case, due to the failure of one or more communication network nodes, information flow must be redistributed among other nodes in the network system, which means that the load on other communication lines in other networks will increase. In other words, if one communication network node fails, the probability of failure of the remaining communication network nodes will increase. If the other communication nodes are already heavily loaded, their stability reserves are minimal, and they can only withstand a small increase in load before being damaged. Therefore, in order to simply and reasonably construct a communication network damage indicator, this embodiment preferably constructs a communication network damage indicator based on the proportional relationship between the stability level of the communication network and the number of connections between normal communication nodes in the communication network.

[0033] Specifically, the step of obtaining the communication failure loss binomial distribution of the target network area and the corresponding communication network deterministic damage distribution includes: According to the communication line failure probability of each communication line in the target network area, a regional communication failure loss binomial distribution is obtained; wherein the regional communication failure loss binomial distribution is expressed as: Among them, Bl N (n) represents the probability of communication network failure in the case of a failure scenario where n out-of-order nodes exist among N communication nodes in the binomial distribution of regional communication failure loss; p line，l represents the communication line failure probability of the lth communication line.

[0034] Obtain the proportion of node out-of-order links corresponding to different fault scenarios in the binomial distribution of regional communication fault loss, and obtain the corresponding communication network deterministic damage based on the inverse of the proportion of node out-of-order links, and obtain the communication network deterministic damage distribution based on the communication network deterministic damage of all fault scenarios; wherein, the proportion of node out-of-order links can be understood as the ratio of the number of remaining inter-node connections when node out-of-order occurs in the communication network to the total number of inter-node connections when all communication nodes are operating normally. The number of connections between communication nodes in this embodiment can be understood as the number of edges in the communication network topology graph with all communication nodes as graph nodes. From combinatorics, it can be seen that the number of edges in the complete graph when all communication nodes are operating normally is: in, It represents the number of non-repeating link combinations, corresponding to the maximum stability level of the communication network. As the number of link connections in the communication network decreases, the communication network will become more vulnerable to typhoons. N represents the total number of communication nodes in the communication network.

[0035] The number of remaining connections between nodes in the corresponding communication network when nodes are out of order can be expressed as And n represents the number of out-of-order nodes, then the corresponding ratio of out-of-order links is expressed as: Where U n Indicates the ratio of out-of-order links when the number of out-of-order nodes is n.

[0036] In addition, in order to approach the real conditions and eliminate the singularity that occurs in further calculations, this embodiment also introduces a specific model restriction: there is always a connection between the two communication nodes, that is, there is always an undamaged redundant link, the purpose of which is to eliminate the singularity, that is, to calculate U n The denominator of is not 0; based on this, the above U n The expression is converted to: Where, It represents the ratio of out-of-order links after the conversion corresponding to the number of out-of-order nodes n. From this formula, we can see that the dependence of the deterministic operation stability level of the communication network on different N values is as follows: Figure 1 shown by Figure 4 It is easy to see that, given the same number of out-of-sequence nodes n, the operational stability level significantly improves as the initial number of communication nodes N increases. Based on this formula, we can derive the deterministic damage to the communication network under the node time-dependent failure scenario.

[0037] From the above analysis, it can be seen that the deterministic damage of the communication network is inversely proportional to the level of deterministic operation stability, and considering the integrity of the communication network (no out-of-order nodes) Corresponding deterministic damage C n =0, then the normalization method can be used to express the deterministic damage of the communication network as: Among them, C n This represents the deterministic damage to the communication network in a failure scenario where n out-of-sequence nodes exist among N communication nodes.

[0038] After obtaining the stability damage of the communication network in different node out-of-order failure scenarios through the above method steps, the binomial distribution law can be used to describe the number of out-of-order nodes in the communication network failure scenario based on the assumption that the communication nodes fail independently and are of the same node type. The communication operation risk value is then obtained through the following method steps. Specifically, the step of obtaining the communication operation risk value based on the binomial distribution of communication failure losses and the deterministic damage distribution of the communication network includes: The communication operation risk value is obtained according to the cumulative value of the product of the communication network failure probability and the corresponding communication network deterministic damage under different failure scenarios in the binomial distribution of regional communication failure loss; the communication operation risk value is expressed as: Where, Among them, R represents the communication operation risk value, the communication network architecture loss degree represents the communication network risk assessment index, and is the line failure loss rate under communication node failure; Bl N (n) and C n They represent the communication network failure probability and the corresponding communication network deterministic damage in the failure scenario where there are n out-of-order nodes among N communication nodes in the binomial distribution of regional communication failure loss; p line，l represents the communication line failure probability of the lth communication line.

[0039] S15. Fusing the power operation risk value and the communication operation risk value to obtain a regional comprehensive risk prediction value. The specific process of obtaining the regional comprehensive risk prediction value is as follows: 1) Considering the dimensional difference between the power operation risk value corresponding to the power network and the communication operation risk value corresponding to the communication network, in order to ensure the reliability of indicator fusion, the power operation risk value and the communication operation risk value are first normalized, that is, the data are converted into a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1 using the following formula: The normalized power operation risk value is: Among them, R LLR and represent the power operation risk value and the normalized power operation risk value respectively; σ p and μ p denote the standard deviation and mean, respectively; The normalized communication operation risk value is: Among them, R and represents the communication operation risk value and the normalized line loss rate, σ c and μ c represent the standard deviation and mean, respectively.

[0040] 2) The normalized power operation risk value and communication operation risk value obtained in the above steps are subjected to indicator fusion. In principle, this can be achieved through a variety of methods, such as weighted summation, weighted average, etc. To ensure the efficiency and reliability of comprehensive risk prediction, this embodiment preferably adopts a weighted fusion method for fusion processing, namely: Among them, R Z represents the regional comprehensive risk prediction value after fusion; w1 and w2 represent weight coefficients.

[0041] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for obtaining the instantaneous typhoon wind speed of different composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, obtaining the corresponding line segment instantaneous failure rate based on the Poisson model according to the instantaneous typhoon wind speed, obtaining the corresponding line failure probability based on the Markov model according to the line segment instantaneous failure rate of different composite optical cable ground wires, performing a series analysis on all line failure probabilities in each communication line to obtain the corresponding communication line failure probability, obtaining the number of regional fault lines according to the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, obtaining the power operation risk value according to the number of regional fault lines, and obtaining the binomial distribution of communication failure loss and the corresponding communication network deterministic damage distribution of the target network area. The communication operation risk value is obtained by combining the binomial distribution of communication failure loss and the deterministic damage distribution of the communication network. The power operation risk value and the communication operation risk value are fused to obtain a regional comprehensive risk prediction value scheme. The line failure probability is obtained by scientifically analyzing the instantaneous wind speed carried by the composite optical cable ground wire in the typhoon wind field. Based on the highly coupled relationship between the power network and the communication network, the fault risk prediction and fusion analysis of the power network and the communication network are performed to obtain a comprehensive risk prediction value for the power communication network. This can effectively improve the scientificity and accuracy of the operation risk prediction of the power communication network under typhoon disasters, provide reliable support for fault warning and risk response of the power communication network under typhoon disasters, and thus ensure the safe and stable operation of the power communication network.

[0042] It should be noted that although the steps in the above flowchart are shown in sequence as indicated by the arrows, these steps are not necessarily executed in the order indicated by the arrows. Unless otherwise specified herein, there is no strict order restriction for the execution of these steps, and these steps can be executed in other orders.

[0043] In one embodiment, Figure 5 As shown, a system for predicting the risk of power communication networks under typhoon disasters is provided, the system comprising: Line segment failure analysis module 1 is used to obtain the typhoon-bearing instantaneous wind speed of different composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, and obtain the corresponding line segment instantaneous failure rate based on the Poisson model according to the typhoon-bearing instantaneous wind speed; Line fault analysis module 2 is used to obtain the corresponding line fault probability based on the Markov model according to the instantaneous failure rate of the line section of different composite optical cable ground wires, and to perform a series analysis on all line fault probabilities in each communication line to obtain the corresponding communication line fault probability; The power risk analysis module 3 is used to obtain the number of regional fault lines based on the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, and obtain the power operation risk value based on the number of regional fault lines; The communication risk analysis module 4 is configured to obtain a binomial distribution of communication failure losses and a corresponding communication network deterministic damage distribution in the target network area, and obtain a communication operation risk value based on the binomial distribution of communication failure losses and the communication network deterministic damage distribution; The comprehensive analysis module 5 is used to fuse the power operation risk value and the communication operation risk value to obtain a regional comprehensive risk prediction value.

[0044] Regarding the specific limitations of the power communication network risk prediction system under typhoon disasters, please refer to the limitations of the power communication network risk prediction method under typhoon disasters mentioned above. The corresponding technical effects can also be obtained equivalently, so they will not be repeated here. Each module in the above-mentioned power communication network risk prediction system under typhoon disasters can be implemented in whole or in part through software, hardware and a combination thereof. The above-mentioned modules can be embedded in or independent of the processor in the computer device in the form of hardware, or can be stored in the memory of the computer device in the form of software, so that the processor can call and execute the operations corresponding to the above modules.

[0045] Figure 6 FIG. 1 shows an internal structure diagram of a computer device in one embodiment, which may be a terminal or a server. Figure 6As shown, the computer device includes a processor, memory, network interface, display, camera, and input device connected via a system bus. The processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The network interface of the computer device is used to communicate with an external terminal via a network connection. When the computer program is executed by the processor, a method for predicting the risk of a power communication network under typhoon disasters is implemented. The display screen of the computer device may be a liquid crystal display or an electronic ink display screen. The input device of the computer device may be a touch layer covering the display screen, or may be a key, trackball, or touchpad provided on the computer device housing, or may be an external keyboard, touchpad, or mouse.

[0046] It can be understood by those skilled in the art that Figure 6 The structure shown in the figure is merely a block diagram of a portion of the structure related to the solution of the present invention and does not constitute a limitation on the computer device to which the solution of the present invention is applied. The specific computing device may include more or fewer components than shown in the figure, or combine certain components, or have the same component arrangement.

[0047] In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the steps of the above method when executing the computer program.

[0048] In one embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the above method are implemented.

[0049] In summary, the embodiments of the present invention provide a method, system, computer equipment and storage medium for predicting the risk of electric power communication networks under typhoon disasters. The method for predicting the risk of electric power communication networks under typhoon disasters realizes obtaining the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon carried by different composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, obtaining the corresponding line segment instantaneous failure rate based on the Poisson model according to the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon carried, obtaining the corresponding line failure probability based on the Markov model according to the instantaneous failure rate of the line segment of different composite optical cable ground wires, and then performing a series analysis on all line failure probabilities in each communication line to obtain the corresponding communication line failure probability, obtaining the number of regional fault lines according to the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, obtaining the power operation risk value according to the number of regional fault lines, and obtaining the communication failure probability of the target network area. The invention relates to a technical scheme for obtaining a regional comprehensive risk prediction value by combining the binomial distribution of communication fault loss and the corresponding deterministic damage distribution of the communication network, obtaining a communication operation risk value according to the binomial distribution of communication fault loss and the deterministic damage distribution of the communication network, and fusing the power operation risk value and the communication operation risk value. The method obtains the line failure probability through a scientific analysis of the instantaneous wind speed carried by the composite optical cable ground wire in the typhoon wind field, and obtains a comprehensive risk prediction value of the power communication network by performing fault risk prediction and fusion analysis on the power network and the communication network based on the highly coupled relationship between the power network and the communication network. The method can effectively improve the scientificity and accuracy of the operation risk prediction of the power communication network under typhoon disasters, provide reliable support for fault warning and risk response of the power communication network under typhoon disasters, and thus ensure the safe and stable operation of the power communication network.

[0050] Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, and the same or similar parts of each embodiment can be directly referred to each other, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. In particular, for the system embodiment, since it is basically similar to the method embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can be referred to the partial description of the method embodiment. It should be noted that the various technical features of the above embodiments can be combined arbitrarily. In order to make the description concise, not all possible combinations of the various technical features in the above embodiments are described. However, as long as there is no contradiction in the combination of these technical features, they should be considered to be within the scope of this specification.

[0051] The above-described embodiments merely represent several preferred implementations of the present invention, and their descriptions are relatively specific and detailed, but they should not be construed as limiting the scope of the patent. It should be noted that a person skilled in the art can make several improvements and substitutions without departing from the technical principles of the present invention, and such improvements and substitutions should also be considered within the scope of protection of the present invention. Therefore, the scope of protection of the patent for this invention shall be based on the scope of protection of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the risk of power communication network under typhoon disaster, characterized in that: The method comprises the following steps: Obtaining the instantaneous typhoon wind speed of different composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, and obtaining the corresponding line segment instantaneous failure rate based on the Poisson model according to the instantaneous typhoon wind speed; According to the instantaneous failure rate of the line section of different composite optical cable ground wires, the corresponding line failure probability is obtained based on the Markov model, and all line failure probabilities in each communication line are analyzed in series to obtain the corresponding communication line failure probability; Obtaining the number of regional fault lines based on the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground lines in the target network area, and obtaining a power operation risk value based on the number of regional fault lines; Obtaining a binomial distribution of communication failure losses and a corresponding communication network deterministic damage distribution in the target network area, and obtaining a communication operation risk value based on the binomial distribution of communication failure losses and the communication network deterministic damage distribution; The power operation risk value and the communication operation risk value are fused to obtain a regional comprehensive risk prediction value.

2. The method for predicting the risk of power communication network under typhoon disaster according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon carried by different composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area includes: Acquire the wind field center position and the wind field positions of different composite optical cable ground wires in real time, and obtain the wind field center spacing of different composite optical cable ground wires based on the wind field position and the wind field center position; According to the wind field center spacing of different composite optical cable ground wires, the radial wind speed and tangential wind speed carried by the line are obtained; According to the vector sum of the radial wind speed and the tangential wind speed carried by the ground wires of different composite optical cables, the corresponding typhoon instantaneous wind speed is obtained.

3. The method for predicting the risk of power communication network under typhoon disaster according to claim 2, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the line-carrying radial wind speed and the line-carrying tangential wind speed according to the wind field center spacing of different composite optical cable ground wires includes: obtaining the corresponding line-carrying radial wind speed based on the exponential decay principle according to the wind field center spacing of different composite optical cable ground wires; the line-carrying radial wind speed is expressed as: Among them, V i,d represents the radial wind speed of the ground wire of the i-th composite optical cable; V0 is the moving speed of the typhoon center; r i represents the wind field center distance of the ith composite optical cable ground wire, R max Indicates the maximum wind speed radius; According to the wind field center spacing, maximum wind speed radius and maximum circulation wind speed of different composite optical cable ground wires, the corresponding line-carrying tangential wind speed is obtained; the line-carrying tangential wind speed is expressed as: Among them, V i，r represents the line-carrying tangential wind speed of the i-th composite optical cable ground wire; r i V represents the wind field center distance of the i-th composite optical cable ground wire; r max and R max Indicates the maximum circulation wind speed and maximum wind speed radius.

4. The method for predicting the risk of power communication network under typhoon disaster according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the corresponding line segment instantaneous failure rate based on the Poisson model according to the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon includes: Obtain the effective wind speed modulus value of the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon, and substitute the effective wind speed modulus value, the line design bearing wind speed value, and the line unit length into the Poisson model to calculate and obtain the instantaneous failure rate of the line segment; the instantaneous failure rate of the line segment is expressed as: Among them, λ wire，i(t) represents the instantaneous failure rate of the line segment of the ith composite optical cable ground wire at time t; v i (t) represents the effective wind speed modulus of the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon carried by the ground wire of the i-th composite optical cable; V d,wire Indicates the line design bearing wind speed value; ΔL i represents the unit length of the ground wire of the i-th composite optical cable; a and b represent constants.

5. The method for predicting the risk of power communication network under typhoon disaster according to claim 1, characterized in that: The steps of obtaining the number of regional fault lines according to the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, and obtaining the power operation risk value according to the number of regional fault lines include: According to the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, the number of faulty lines in the area is obtained based on binomial distribution; According to the number of regional fault lines and the total number of regional lines, a regional power line loss rate is obtained, and the regional power line loss rate is used as the power operation risk value.

6. The method for predicting the risk of power communication network under typhoon disaster according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of obtaining the binomial distribution of communication failure losses in the target network area and the corresponding deterministic damage distribution of the communication network includes: Obtaining a binomial distribution of regional communication failure losses based on a communication line failure probability of each communication line in the target network area; Obtain the proportion of node out-of-sequence links corresponding to different fault scenarios in the binomial distribution of regional communication fault loss, and obtain the corresponding communication network deterministic damage based on the inverse of the proportion of node out-of-sequence links, and obtain the communication network deterministic damage distribution based on the communication network deterministic damage of all fault scenarios.

7. The method for predicting the risk of power communication network under typhoon disaster according to claim 6, characterized in that: The step of obtaining a communication operation risk value based on the communication failure loss binomial distribution and the communication network deterministic damage distribution includes: obtaining the communication operation risk value based on the cumulative value of the product of the communication network failure probability and the corresponding communication network deterministic damage under different failure scenarios in the regional communication failure loss binomial distribution; the communication operation risk value is expressed as: Where, Where R represents the communication operation risk value; Bl N (n) and C n They represent the communication network failure probability and the corresponding communication network deterministic damage in the failure scenario where there are n out-of-order nodes among N communication nodes in the binomial distribution of regional communication failure loss; p line，l represents the communication line failure probability of the lth communication line.

8. A typhoon disaster risk prediction system for power communication networks, characterized in that: The system comprises: A line segment failure analysis module is used to obtain the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon bearing of different composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, and obtain the corresponding line segment instantaneous failure rate based on the Poisson model according to the instantaneous wind speed of the typhoon bearing; The line fault analysis module is used to obtain the corresponding line fault probability based on the Markov model according to the instantaneous failure rate of the line section of different composite optical cable ground wires, and to perform a series analysis on all line fault probabilities in each communication line to obtain the corresponding communication line failure probability; A power risk analysis module, configured to obtain the number of regional fault lines based on the line failure probability of all composite optical cable ground wires in the target network area, and obtain a power operation risk value based on the number of regional fault lines; a communication risk analysis module, configured to obtain a communication failure loss binomial distribution and a corresponding communication network deterministic damage distribution in the target network area, and obtain a communication operation risk value based on the communication failure loss binomial distribution and the communication network deterministic damage distribution; The comprehensive analysis module is used to fuse the power operation risk value and the communication operation risk value to obtain a regional comprehensive risk prediction value.

9. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein: When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

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