River flood control risk prediction and analysis system based on water conservancy model

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of flood control risk prediction, in particular to a river flood control risk prediction analysis system based on a water conservancy model, and the system is provided with a twinborn monitoring module which is used for continuously obtaining water conservancy data of a target river region according to a preset monitoring frequency, and constructing a corresponding twinborn model; the feature recognition module is connected with the twinborn monitoring module and is used for analyzing collapse features based on a twinborn model; the type division module is connected with the feature recognition module and is used for evaluating a diffusion characterization value according to the collapse features in combination with the minimum distance between the edges of the adjacent sunken regions so as to divide the diffusion tendency types of the sunken regions; and the prediction analysis module is connected with the type division module and is used for adaptively detecting and analyzing the sunken area based on the diffusion tendency category, the detection efficiency of the dike breach is improved, and then support is provided for implementation of rapid plugging.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The application relates to the field of flood risk prediction, in particular to a river flood risk prediction and analysis system based on a water conservancy model. BACKGROUND

[0002] In order to reduce the risk of flood, artificial engineering means is used to build a dike in a river to control water flow, wherein the dike, as an important part of the flood control project, plays a key role in resisting floods, protecting people's lives and property safety and maintaining social stability. However, once the river dike breaks, the flood will rush out from the breach with great energy and flow rate, quickly submerging the surrounding area and causing serious flood disasters. The breach not only destroys farmland, houses and other infrastructure, but also may cause casualties, bringing huge losses to the local economy and social development.

[0003] With the continuous development of computer technology and numerical simulation technology, it is possible to simulate and analyze the process of plugging the breach of the river dike by using a mathematical model. By establishing an accurate breach plugging model, the complex flow characteristics of the breach water flow can be studied in depth, and possible problems in the plugging process can be predicted, providing a scientific basis for the optimization of the plugging scheme.

[0004] In order to improve the efficiency of plugging the breach of the river dike and reduce the losses caused by flood disasters, it is an important research topic to establish an accurate, efficient and universal risk prediction and analysis system for the breach of the river dike. Such a model can quickly and accurately simulate the characteristics of the breach water flow and the plugging process, providing timely and reliable decision support for flood rescue personnel, helping them to develop the best plugging scheme in the shortest time and improve the ability to respond to sudden flood disasters.

[0005] Chinese patent application publication No. CN110532952A discloses a flood risk early warning and evacuation system and method based on GIS positioning technology, which comprises: an information storage module for providing aerial pictures of the riverbank topography to a geographic information module, providing predicted flood flow at a specific time point to a flood dynamic monitoring module, and providing predicted single flood peak maximum flow to a flood area division module; the geographic information module is used for providing river profile information to the flood dynamic monitoring module and providing riverbank geographic information to the flood area division module, which is provided on the public coordinate map in the geographic information module; the flood dynamic monitoring module is used for providing flood submergence water level to the flood area division module; the flood area division module is used for providing flood submergence area and flood affected area range information to the early warning and evacuation module; the application has the advantages that three-dimensional feature curved surface information and three kinds of flood area range information are combined with the public coordinate map, and the process of actively publishing early warning information and evacuation scheme is flexible and convenient.

[0006] However, the prior art still has the following problems,

[0007] When facing the breach of river embankment, the water flow characteristics, stress conditions and other key factors of the breach are often not accurately evaluated, and the traditional plugging method is used alone, including manual stacking of sandbags, throwing stones and other methods, thereby affecting the plugging effect. SUMMARY

[0008] Therefore, the present application provides a river flood control risk prediction and analysis system based on a water conservancy model to overcome the problem in the prior art that when facing the breach of river embankment, the water flow characteristics, stress conditions and other key factors of the breach are often not accurately evaluated, and the traditional plugging method is used alone, thereby affecting the plugging effect.

[0009] To achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application provides a river flood control risk prediction and analysis system based on a water conservancy model, which comprises,

[0010] a twin monitoring module for continuously acquiring water conservancy data of a target river area according to a predetermined monitoring frequency to build a corresponding twin model;

[0011] a feature recognition module connected with the twin monitoring module for analyzing collapse features based on the twin model, including the gradient difference at the bottom of the concave area and the horizontal maximum width of the concave area;

[0012] a type classification module connected with the feature recognition module for evaluating a diffusion representation value according to the collapse features and the minimum distance between adjacent edges of the concave area to classify the diffusion tendency category of the concave area;

[0013] a prediction and analysis module connected with the type classification module for detecting and analyzing the concave area based on the diffusion tendency category, including,

[0014] analyzing the water flow of the concave area, determining the water flow turbulence stage, acquiring the horizontal expansion speed of the concave area corresponding to the water flow turbulence stage and the area change of the bottom easy expansion area, evaluating the water flow interference representation parameter to predict whether there is a collapse risk, identifying and marking the weak concave area, and issuing a warning prompt message;

[0015] or, adjusting the monitoring frequency of the twin monitoring module for the target river area based on the diffusion representation value.

[0016] Further, the type classification module is used to evaluate the diffusion representation value, including,

[0017] the ratio of the gradient difference at the bottom of the concave area to the gradient difference threshold value and the ratio of the horizontal maximum width of the concave area to the horizontal maximum width threshold value are summed as the first diffusion feature;

[0018] using a ratio of a minimum distance between edges of adjacent recessed regions to a minimum distance threshold as a second diffusion feature;

[0019] using a weighted sum of the first diffusion feature and the second diffusion feature as the diffusion representation value.

[0020] Further, the type dividing module is configured to divide the diffusion tendency category of the recessed region, including,

[0021] if the diffusion representation value of the recessed region is greater than or equal to a diffusion representation threshold, the recessed region is determined as a strong diffusion tendency category;

[0022] if the diffusion representation value of the recessed region is less than the diffusion representation threshold, the recessed region is determined as a weak diffusion tendency category.

[0023] Further, the prediction analysis module is configured to perform detection analysis on the recessed region based on the diffusion tendency category, including,

[0024] if the recessed region is a strong diffusion tendency category, the water flow of the recessed region is analyzed to determine a water flow turbulence stage, to obtain a horizontal expansion speed of the recessed region corresponding to the water flow turbulence stage and an area change amount of a bottom easy expansion area, to evaluate a water flow interference representation parameter, to predict whether there is a collapse risk, to identify and mark a recessed weak area, and to issue a warning prompt information;

[0025] if the recessed region is a weak diffusion tendency category, the monitoring frequency of the twin monitoring module for the target river region is adjusted based on the diffusion representation value.

[0026] Further, the prediction analysis module is configured to determine the water flow turbulence stage, including,

[0027] controlling the twin monitoring module to place a plurality of tracking factors into the water flow to identify the motion trajectory of each tracking factor;

[0028] obtaining a motion speed difference value of each tracking factor and a maximum change frequency of the motion speed;

[0029] if the motion speed difference value is greater than a motion speed difference threshold or / and the maximum change frequency of the motion speed is greater than a maximum change frequency threshold, it is determined that the recessed region is in the water flow turbulence stage.

[0030] Further, the prediction analysis module is configured to evaluate the water flow interference representation parameter, including,

[0031] using a ratio of a horizontal expansion speed of the recessed region to a horizontal expansion speed threshold as a first water flow interference feature;

[0032] The ratio of the area change of the easily expandable bottom region to the area change threshold is used as the second water flow interference feature;

[0033] The sum of the first water flow interference feature and the second water flow interference feature is used as the water flow interference characterization parameter;

[0034] Specifically, based on the twin model, a local depression region at the bottom of the depression region is determined. If the area of ​​the local depression region is greater than a predetermined area threshold, the local depression region is determined to be a bottom expansion region.

[0035] Furthermore, the predictive analysis module is used to predict whether there is a risk of collapse, including,

[0036] If the water flow interference characterization parameter is greater than or equal to the water flow interference characterization parameter threshold, then the prediction has a risk of collapse.

[0037] Furthermore, the predictive analysis module is used to identify and mark the depressed and weak areas, including,

[0038] This is used to divide the recessed region into several sub-regions;

[0039] Used to obtain the water flow turning frequency and water flow velocity corresponding to each of the sub-regions;

[0040] If any sub-region meets the conditions for a weak levee, then the sub-region is identified as the weak depression region and marked.

[0041] The weak conditions of the dike include a water flow turning frequency greater than a water flow turning frequency threshold and a water flow velocity greater than a water flow velocity threshold.

[0042] Furthermore, the warning information also includes the depressed or weak area, the corresponding water flow velocity, and the water flow turning frequency.

[0043] Furthermore, the predictive analysis module is used to adjust the monitoring frequency for the target river area based on the diffusion characterization value, including:

[0044] Increase the monitoring frequency for the target river area, and the increase in monitoring frequency is positively correlated with the diffusion characterization value.

[0045] Compared with the prior art, the present application provides a twin monitoring module for continuously acquiring water conservancy data of a target river channel region according to a predetermined monitoring frequency to construct a corresponding twin model; a feature recognition module connected with the twin monitoring module for analyzing collapse features based on the twin model; a type division module connected with the feature recognition module for evaluating a diffusion representation value according to the collapse features and the minimum distance between adjacent recessed region edges to divide the diffusion tendency category of the recessed region; and a prediction analysis module connected with the type division module for adaptively detecting and analyzing the recessed region based on the diffusion tendency category, which improves the detection efficiency of embankment breach and provides support for rapid plugging.

[0046] In particular, the present application considers the collapse features presented by the recessed region formed by the embankment breach in combination with the minimum distance between adjacent recessed regions to evaluate the severity of embankment collapse. In actual situations, the gradient difference at the bottom of the recessed region can reflect the damage degree of the breach in the vertical direction. The greater the height difference, the greater the difference at the bottom of the recessed region, and the stronger the impact force and destructive power of the water flow. The horizontal maximum width of the recessed region reflects the influence range of the recessed region in the horizontal direction. The greater the width, the wider the area involved by the recessed region. The minimum distance between the edges of adjacent recessed regions takes into account the mutual influence between the recessed regions, further affecting the stability of the river embankment. Therefore, the present application evaluates the diffusion representation value of the recessed region to provide data support for subsequent division of the diffusion tendency category of the recessed region, improving the efficiency and pertinence of the treatment of river embankment breach problems.

[0047] In particular, for recessed regions with strong diffusion tendency categories, the present application characterizes the motion of the water flow according to the motion of the tracking factors in the water flow. In actual situations, in regular water flow laminar flow, the motion speed of the tracking factors is relatively uniform, and the change frequency of the motion speed is also relatively stable, thereby determining the water flow turbulence stage. A large difference in the motion speed of several tracking factors indicates that the flow velocity at different positions in the water flow changes dramatically, and the scouring of the breach is more intense. The change frequency of the motion speed of several tracking factors reflects the stability of the water flow motion. For example, if the speed of the water flow changes frequently within a short period of time, it indicates a high degree of instability of the water flow motion, which has a complex impact on the shape and development of the recessed region. At the same time, the above two features can indirectly reflect the distribution of water flow energy in the recessed region. Therefore, the present application determines the water flow turbulence stage based on the above considerations, and then analyzes the degree of interference and damage of the water flow to the river embankment of the recessed region. The present application improves the detection efficiency of embankment breach and provides support for rapid plugging.

[0048] Especially, the application analyzes the state of the concave area in the turbulent stage of water flow and the corresponding river embankment, considers the horizontal expansion speed of the concave area and the area change amount of the bottom easy expansion area, the horizontal expansion speed of the concave area can reflect the change of the concave area in the horizontal dimension, at the same time, the faster horizontal expansion speed means that the water flow has stronger carrying capacity and scouring power, which continuously carries away the soil body of the embankment, intensifies the damage to the river embankment, increases the soil body gap of the embankment, and further intensifies the influence on the overall stability of the river embankment; the change of the area change amount of the bottom easy expansion area reflects the looseness degree and permeability change of the soil structure, therefore, the application represents the interference degree of water flow to the concave area and the embankment and the damage intensification degree of the two by the water flow interference representation parameter, provides data support for subsequent prediction of whether there is a collapse risk, improves the detection efficiency of the river embankment breach, and further provides support for rapid plugging.

[0049] Especially, the application further refines the local weak area on the basis of evaluating the whole concave area, avoids ignoring the key weak point due to overall balance, the water flow turning frequency can reflect the energy conversion frequency of the corresponding sub-area, when the water flow turns, the kinetic energy is transformed, part of the energy may be converted into turbulent energy, increasing the turbulent intensity of the water flow; another part of the energy may act on the river embankment, produce local impact force, cause damage to the embankment; the water flow speed reflects the kinetic energy of the water flow, wherein the greater the water flow speed, the more energy the water flow carries, the stronger the scouring ability of the water flow to the embankment, the faster water flow speed can more easily carry mud and other substances, produce erosion and transportation effect on the soil body of the embankment, gradually damage the structural stability of the river embankment, the application evaluates the concave weak area based on the above situation and marks it, and then issues a warning prompt information, the application improves the detection efficiency of the river embankment breach, and further provides support for rapid plugging. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0050] Figure 1 The functional module diagram of the river flood control risk prediction and analysis system based on the water conservancy model of the application embodiment;

[0051] Figure 2 The logic judgment diagram for classifying the diffusion tendency category of the concave area of the application embodiment;

[0052] Figure 3 The logic judgment diagram for predicting whether there is a collapse risk of the application embodiment;

[0053] Figure 4 The logic judgment diagram for identifying and marking the concave weak area of the application embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0054] In order to make the objects, technical schemes and advantages of the present application clearer, the following further describes the present application with reference to the embodiments; it should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present application and not to limit the present application.

[0055] The preferred embodiments of the present application are described below with reference to the drawings. Those skilled in the art should understand that these embodiments are only used to explain the technical principles of the present application and are not intended to limit the protection scope of the present application.

[0056] It should be noted that in the description of the present application, the terms indicating the direction or positional relationship such as "inner" are based on the direction or positional relationship shown in the drawings, which is only for the convenience of description and does not indicate or imply that the device or element must have a specific orientation, be constructed and operated in a specific orientation, and therefore cannot be understood as a limitation on the present application.

[0057] Please refer to Figure 1 As shown in the figure, it is a functional module diagram of the river flood control risk prediction and analysis system based on a water conservancy model according to an embodiment of the present application. The river flood control risk prediction and analysis system based on a water conservancy model according to an embodiment of the present application comprises:

[0058] A twin monitoring module is used to continuously acquire water conservancy data of a target river area according to a predetermined monitoring frequency, and to construct a corresponding twin model.

[0059] A feature recognition module is connected with the twin monitoring module and is used to analyze collapse features based on the twin model, including the gradient difference of the bottom of the concave area and the horizontal maximum width of the concave area.

[0060] A type classification module is connected with the feature recognition module and is used to evaluate a diffusion representation value according to the collapse features and the minimum distance of the edges of adjacent concave areas, so as to classify the diffusion tendency category of the concave area.

[0061] A prediction and analysis module is connected with the type classification module and is used to detect and analyze the concave area based on the diffusion tendency category, including,

[0062] analyzing the water flow of the concave area, determining the water flow turbulence stage, acquiring the horizontal expansion speed of the concave area corresponding to the water flow turbulence stage and the area change of the bottom easy expansion area, evaluating the water flow interference representation parameter, predicting whether there is a collapse risk, identifying and marking the concave weak area, and issuing a warning prompt information;

[0063] Alternatively, the monitoring frequency of the twin monitoring module for the target river area is adjusted based on the diffusion representation value.

[0064] In implementation, the unmanned aerial vehicle capable of carrying a multi-beam system and a switchable box with a tracking factor is used to continuously collect and acquire water conservancy data of a target river area, and to place the tracking factor in the water flow, and the unmanned aerial vehicle is used as part of the twin monitoring module, wherein the water conservancy data includes collapse characteristics, minimum distance between adjacent edge of the recessed area, horizontal expansion speed of the recessed area, area change of the bottom easy expansion area, motion speed difference value of the tracking factor, maximum change frequency of the motion speed, water flow turning frequency, and water flow speed, etc., which will not be repeated here.

[0065] Specifically, the specific structure of the feature recognition module, the type classification module, and the prediction analysis module is not limited, and each unit thereof can be composed of a logic component or a combination of logic components, including a field programmable processor, a computer, or a microprocessor in a computer.

[0066] Specifically, the acquisition method of the collapse characteristics, the minimum distance between adjacent edge of the recessed area, the horizontal expansion speed of the recessed area, and the area change of the bottom easy expansion area is not limited, and the sonar device can be used to generate an image of the recessed area based on the transmitted and received sound wave signals according to the characteristics that sound waves will be reflected and refracted when encountering different medium interfaces during propagation in water. The sonar device generates an image of the recessed area according to the time information of the reflected wave to determine the shape and structure of the recessed area.

[0067] Specifically, the type classification module is used to evaluate the diffusion representation value, including,

[0068] The ratio of the gradient difference of the bottom of the recessed area to the gradient difference threshold value and the ratio of the maximum horizontal width of the recessed area to the maximum horizontal width threshold value are used as the first diffusion feature.

[0069] The minimum distance between adjacent edges of the recessed area and the minimum distance threshold value are used as the second diffusion feature.

[0070] The first diffusion feature and the second diffusion feature are weighted and summed as the diffusion representation value.

[0071] It can be understood that the bottom of the recessed area is irregular due to the erosion of the water flow, and the embankment material at the bottom forms an irregular concave-convex area. Therefore, the difference between the average elevation of the convex area and the average elevation of the concave area is used as the gradient difference of the bottom of the recessed area.

[0072] Specifically, the sizes of the collapse features, namely, the gradient difference of the bottom of the recessed area and the maximum horizontal width of the recessed area, are preferentially considered in the implementation, so the first diffusion feature calculated based on the collapse features is given a slightly higher weight, and therefore, when the weighted sum is performed, the weight of the first diffusion feature is set to 0.6, and the weight of the second diffusion feature is set to 0.4;

[0073] In the embodiment, the purpose of setting the gradient difference threshold is to represent the situation that the collapse of the recessed area is relatively scattered and close, and the further expansion of the breach has a relatively serious impact. The bottom image of each recessed area is obtained, the gradient difference of the bottom of the recessed area is determined, the mean value of the gradient difference is solved, and the mean value of the gradient difference is determined as the height difference threshold based on the purpose of setting the gradient difference threshold.

[0074] The purpose of setting the maximum horizontal width threshold is to represent the situation that the recessed area involves a relatively wide range in the horizontal direction and has a relatively large degree of damage to the stability of the river embankment. The maximum horizontal width data of each recessed area is called, the average value of the maximum horizontal width is solved, and the average value is taken as the horizontal width threshold based on the purpose of setting the maximum horizontal width threshold.

[0075] The purpose of setting the minimum distance threshold is to represent the situation that the mutual influence between the breaches has a relatively serious impact on the stability of the river embankment. The minimum distance between the edges of adjacent recessed areas is determined, the mean value of the minimum distance is solved, and the mean value of the minimum distance is determined as the minimum distance threshold based on the purpose of setting the minimum distance threshold.

[0076] Wherein, any recessed area and protruding area is taken as a breach.

[0077] Specifically, the present application considers the collapse features of the recessed areas formed by the breaches of the river embankment in combination with the minimum distance between adjacent recessed areas to evaluate the severity of the embankment collapse. In actual situations, the gradient difference of the bottom of the recessed area can reflect the damage degree of the breach in the vertical direction. The greater the height difference, the greater the difference in the bottom of the recessed area, and the impact force and destructive power of the water flow may be stronger. The maximum horizontal width of the recessed area reflects the influence range of the recessed area in the horizontal direction, and the greater the width, the wider the area involved by the recessed area. The minimum distance between the edges of adjacent recessed areas takes into account the mutual influence between the recessed areas, further aggravating the influence of the river on the stability of the embankment. Therefore, the present application evaluates the diffusion representation value of the recessed area to provide data support for subsequent division of the recessed area diffusion tendency category, and improves the efficiency and pertinence of the treatment of the breach problem of the river embankment.

[0078] Specifically, referring to Figure 2 As shown in the logical decision diagram for classifying the diffusion tendency of the recessed area by the embodiment of the present application, the type classification module is used to classify the diffusion tendency of the recessed area, and includes,

[0079] If the diffusion characteristic value of the recessed area is greater than or equal to the diffusion characteristic threshold value, the recessed area is determined as the strong diffusion tendency category;

[0080] If the diffusion characteristic value of the recessed area is less than the diffusion characteristic threshold value, the recessed area is determined as the weak diffusion tendency category.

[0081] The diffusion characteristic threshold value is determined in advance, and the diffusion characteristic value obtained under the condition that the gradient difference of the bottom of the recessed area is equal to the gradient difference threshold value, the horizontal maximum width of the recessed area is equal to the horizontal maximum width threshold value, and the minimum spacing of the adjacent recessed area edges is equal to the minimum spacing threshold value is determined as the diffusion characteristic threshold value.

[0082] Specifically, the prediction analysis module is used to perform detection analysis on the recessed area based on the diffusion tendency category, and includes,

[0083] If the recessed area is the strong diffusion tendency category, the water flow of the recessed area is analyzed to determine the water flow turbulence stage, the horizontal expansion speed of the recessed area corresponding to the water flow turbulence stage and the area change amount of the bottom easy expansion area are obtained, the water flow interference characteristic parameter is evaluated to predict whether there is a collapse risk, the recessed weak area is identified and marked, and a warning prompt information is issued;

[0084] If the recessed area is the weak diffusion tendency category, the monitoring frequency of the twin monitoring module for the target river area is adjusted based on the diffusion characteristic value.

[0085] Specifically, the prediction analysis module is used to determine the water flow turbulence stage, and includes,

[0086] The twin monitoring module is used to control the placement of a plurality of tracking factors into the water flow, and identify the motion trajectories of each tracking factor;

[0087] The motion speed difference value and the maximum change frequency of the motion speed of each tracking factor are obtained;

[0088] If the motion speed difference value is greater than the motion speed difference threshold value or / and the maximum change frequency of the motion speed is greater than the maximum change frequency threshold value, it is determined that the recessed area is in the water flow turbulence stage.

[0089] It can be understood that the tracking factor refers to a particle capable of marking, tracking and studying the movement, diffusion and distribution of a specific substance or object, in the implementation, the control unmanned aerial vehicle places a plurality of fluorescent microspheres into the water flow in the recessed area, uses a fluorescent imaging device to shoot the fluorescent microspheres in the water flow, records the positions of the microspheres at different times, tracks the displacement of the fluorescent microspheres in the continuous images through image analysis technology, calculates the movement speed of the fluorescent microspheres according to the time interval of shooting, so as to represent the speed of the water flow, and then determines the movement speed difference value and the maximum change frequency of the movement speed of the tracking factor;

[0090] In a normal case, the movement speeds of the plurality of tracking particles are relatively uniform and have little difference, and the movement speeds of the tracking particles in the water flow turbulence state are constantly changing. Due to the irregular movement of the water flow, the tracking particles in different regions are subjected to different water flow forces, so that the speeds of the tracking factors also have great differences. Therefore, the difference between the fastest movement speed and the slowest movement speed of each fluorescent microsphere is taken as the movement speed difference value.

[0091] In addition, the water flow turning frequency and the water flow speed are determined according to the movement of the tracking factor in the water flow, which will not be described herein.

[0092] In the embodiment, the purpose of setting the movement speed difference threshold value and the maximum change frequency threshold value is to represent that the scouring of the water flow on the recessed area is relatively strong, which will aggravate the damage of the river channel to the breach. The water flow condition data in a certain period of time is called, the water flow movement speed difference value data and the maximum change frequency data of the movement speed of the recessed area corresponding position are extracted, the movement speed difference average value and the maximum change frequency average value are solved, and the corresponding average values are taken as the reference values in the normal case. Based on the purpose of setting the above two threshold values, the movement speed difference threshold value is determined as the product of the movement speed difference average value and the speed deviation coefficient, and the maximum change frequency threshold value is determined as the product of the maximum change frequency average value and the frequency deviation coefficient. The speed deviation coefficient is selected in the interval [1.1, 1.15], and in the implementation, it is preferably 1.1. The frequency deviation coefficient is in the interval [1.05, 1.1], and in the implementation, it is preferably 1.05.

[0093] Specifically, for the recessed area of the strong diffusion tendency category, the movement of the tracking factor in the water flow is used to represent the movement of the water flow. In actual conditions, for the regular water flow laminar flow, the movement speed of the tracking factor is relatively uniform, and the change frequency of the movement speed is also relatively stable, so that the water flow turbulence stage is determined. If the movement speed difference of the plurality of tracking factors is large, it indicates that the flow speed at different positions in the water flow changes dramatically, and the scouring of the breach is more intense. For example, the movement speed difference of the water flow in the recessed area is obvious, which will cause the erosion of the dike body by the water flow to be intensified, and the breach may be further enlarged.

[0094] The frequency of the change of the movement speed of the tracking factors reflects the stability of the water flow movement, for example, if the speed of the water flow frequently changes in a short time, the instability of the water flow movement is high, which makes the shape and development of the recessed area complex; meanwhile, the above two characteristics can indirectly reflect the distribution of the water flow energy in the recessed area, wherein, the area with large movement speed difference, the water flow energy is unevenly distributed, and the high-energy area may cause more serious erosion to the local river embankment breach; and the area with high speed change frequency, the transformation and transmission of the water flow energy is relatively rapid, which may lead to more significant damage of the water flow to the embankment soil body;

[0095] Therefore, based on the above considerations, the water flow turbulence stage is determined, and then the influence degree of the interference and damage of the water flow to the river embankment of the recessed area is analyzed, the detection efficiency of the river embankment breach is improved, and then support is provided for rapid plugging.

[0096] Specifically, the prediction analysis module is used to evaluate the water flow interference characteristic parameter, including,

[0097] The ratio of the horizontal expansion speed of the recessed area to the horizontal expansion speed threshold value is used as the first water flow interference characteristic;

[0098] The ratio of the area change amount of the bottom easy expansion area to the area change amount threshold value is used as the second water flow interference characteristic;

[0099] The sum of the first water flow interference characteristic and the second water flow interference characteristic is used as the water flow interference characteristic parameter;

[0100] Wherein, the local recessed area of the bottom of the recessed area is determined based on the twin model, if the area of the local recessed area is greater than a predetermined area threshold value, the local recessed area is determined as the bottom easy expansion area.

[0101] In this embodiment, the purpose of setting the horizontal expansion speed threshold value and the area change amount threshold value is to represent the case that the current water flow state is more serious in terms of damage and interference to the recessed area and the river embankment, therefore, the horizontal expansion speed of the recessed area and the area of the local recessed area corresponding to the bottom of the recessed area will aggravate the erosion and damage of the water flow to the river embankment, based on the purpose of setting the above two threshold values, the horizontal expansion speed threshold value is set to 0.5 m / h, and the area change amount threshold value is set to 30% of the overall area of the river embankment.

[0102] Specifically, the present application analyzes the state of the recessed area in the turbulent stage of water flow and the corresponding river embankment, considers the horizontal expansion speed of the recessed area and the area change amount of the bottom easy expansion area, the horizontal expansion speed of the recessed area can reflect the change of the recessed area in the horizontal dimension, if the horizontal expansion speed is fast, it indicates that the recessed area is rapidly expanding, the effective area of the embankment is small, which reduces the carrying capacity of the embankment, at the same time, the faster horizontal expansion speed means that the water flow has strong sediment carrying capacity and scouring power, which continuously carries away the soil of the embankment, intensifies the damage to the river embankment, increases the soil gap of the embankment, and further intensifies the influence on the overall stability of the river embankment;

[0103] The change of the area change amount of the bottom easy expansion area reflects the change of the looseness and permeability of the soil structure, for example, the increase of the pore area indicates that the connection between the soil particles is gradually destroyed under the action of water flow, the soil becomes more loose, which leads to the decrease of the impermeability of the embankment, and the embankment is more easily penetrated and eroded by water flow, which further aggravates the expansion trend of the breach and the influence on the overall stability of the river embankment;

[0104] Therefore, the present application uses the water flow interference characteristic parameter to represent the interference degree of water flow to the recessed area and the embankment, and the damage aggravation degree of the two, provides data support for subsequent prediction of whether there is a collapse risk, and improves the detection efficiency of the river embankment breach, thereby providing support for the implementation of rapid plugging.

[0105] Specifically, please refer to Figure 3 The logic judgment diagram for predicting whether there is a collapse risk in the embodiment of the present application is shown, the prediction analysis module is used to predict whether there is a collapse risk, which comprises,

[0106] If the water flow interference characteristic parameter is greater than or equal to the water flow interference characteristic parameter threshold value, it is predicted that there is a collapse risk;

[0107] If the water flow interference characteristic parameter is less than the water flow interference characteristic parameter threshold value, it is predicted that there is no collapse risk.

[0108] The water flow interference characteristic parameter threshold value is determined in advance, and the water flow interference characteristic parameter obtained by calculating the condition that the horizontal expansion speed of the recessed area is equal to the horizontal expansion speed threshold value and the area change amount of the bottom easy expansion area is equal to the area change amount threshold value is determined as the water flow interference characteristic parameter threshold value.

[0109] Specifically, please refer to Figure 4 The logic judgment diagram for identifying the recessed weak area and marking in the embodiment of the present application is shown, the prediction analysis module is used to identify the recessed weak area and mark, which comprises,

[0110] The recessed area is divided into several sub-areas;

[0111] acquiring the flow turning frequency and the flow velocity corresponding to each of the sub-regions;

[0112] If any of the sub-regions meets the embankment weakness condition, the sub-region is determined as the concave weak region and is marked.

[0113] The embankment weakness condition includes that the flow turning frequency is greater than a flow turning frequency threshold and the flow velocity is greater than a flow velocity threshold.

[0114] In this embodiment, the purpose of setting the flow turning frequency threshold and the flow velocity threshold is to represent the case that the motion state of the water flow is relatively strong in terms of the erosion of the river embankment, and the data evaluation has a representative value. Therefore, in the implementation, the flow turning frequency data and the flow velocity data of each time point 30 minutes before the embankment of the river embankment appears a breach are acquired, the average flow turning frequency and the average flow velocity are solved, and the average flow turning frequency and the average flow velocity are correspondingly taken as the reference value under normal circumstances. Based on the purpose of setting the above two thresholds, and considering that the water flow under the turbulent state has no obvious rules and directions, and presents high disorder, and under the premise of fast flow velocity, the water flow under the turbulent state has strong mixing characteristics and enhanced ability to carry sediment. Therefore, the flow turning frequency threshold is determined as the product of the average flow turning frequency and a turning frequency coefficient, and the flow velocity threshold is determined as the product of the average flow velocity and a velocity increase coefficient. The turning frequency coefficient is selected within the interval [1.3, 1.5], and in the implementation, 1.3 is preferred. The velocity increase coefficient is selected within the interval [1.2, 1.3], and in the implementation, 1.2 is preferred.

[0115] Specifically, the present application further refines the local weak region on the basis of evaluating the overall concave region, avoids ignoring the key weak point due to overall balance, the flow turning frequency can reflect the energy conversion frequency of the corresponding sub-region, when the flow turns, the kinetic energy is converted, part of the energy may be converted into turbulent energy, increasing the turbulent intensity of the flow; another part of the energy may act on the river embankment, producing local impact force and causing damage to the embankment; the flow velocity reflects the size of the kinetic energy of the flow, wherein the greater the flow velocity, the more energy the flow carries, and the stronger the erosion ability of the embankment, the faster the flow velocity can more easily carry sediment and other substances, causing erosion and transportation effects on the embankment soil, gradually damaging the structural stability of the river embankment. The present application evaluates and marks the concave weak region based on the above situation, and further issues a warning prompt information. The present application improves the detection efficiency of the river embankment breach, and further provides support for rapid plugging.

[0116] Specifically, the warning prompt information includes the concave weak region, the corresponding flow velocity, and the flow turning frequency.

[0117] Specifically, the prediction analysis module is configured to adjust a monitoring frequency for the target river region based on the diffusion characteristic value, including,

[0118] Increasing the monitoring frequency for the target river region, and the increase amount of the monitoring frequency is positively correlated with the diffusion characteristic value.

[0119] In the embodiment, optionally,

[0120] Comparing the diffusion characteristic value with a preset first diffusion characteristic comparison threshold and a second diffusion characteristic comparison threshold,

[0121] When the diffusion characteristic value is greater than the second diffusion characteristic comparison threshold, the increase amount of the monitoring frequency is determined as a first increase amount, and the first increase amount is set as 0.6 times of the current monitoring frequency.

[0122] When the diffusion characteristic value is greater than or equal to the first diffusion characteristic comparison threshold and less than or equal to the second diffusion characteristic comparison threshold, the increase amount of the monitoring frequency is determined as a second increase amount, and the second increase amount is set as 0.4 times of the current monitoring frequency.

[0123] When the diffusion characteristic value is less than the first diffusion characteristic comparison threshold, the increase amount of the monitoring frequency is determined as a third increase amount, and the third increase amount is set as 0.2 times of the current monitoring frequency.

[0124] Wherein, the first diffusion characteristic comparison threshold is 1.1 times of the diffusion characteristic threshold, and the second diffusion characteristic comparison threshold is 1.3 times of the diffusion characteristic threshold.

[0125] So far, the technical solutions of the present application have been described in combination with the preferred embodiments shown in the drawings, but those skilled in the art can easily understand that the protection scope of the present application is obviously not limited to these specific embodiments. Those skilled in the art can make equivalent changes or replacements to the related technical features without departing from the principles of the present application, and the technical solutions after the changes or replacements will fall within the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A river flood control risk prediction and analysis system based on a hydraulic model, characterized by, The method comprises the following steps: a twin monitoring module is used to continuously acquire water conservancy data of a target river region according to a predetermined monitoring frequency, and a corresponding twin model is constructed; a feature recognition module connected with the twin monitoring module is used to analyze collapse features based on the twin model, including gradient difference of the bottom of a concave region and horizontal maximum width of the concave region; a type division module connected with the feature recognition module is used to evaluate a diffusion representation value according to the collapse features and minimum distance of adjacent edges of the concave region, so as to divide a diffusion tendency category of the concave region; a prediction analysis module connected with the type division module is used to analyze the concave region based on the diffusion tendency category, including, analyzing water flow of the concave region, determining a water flow turbulence stage, acquiring horizontal expansion speed of the concave region corresponding to the water flow turbulence stage and area change of the bottom easy-to-expand region, evaluating a water flow interference representation parameter, predicting whether there is a collapse risk, identifying a concave weak region and marking, and issuing a warning prompt information; or, adjusting the monitoring frequency of the twin monitoring module for the target river region based on the diffusion representation value.

2. The river flood risk prediction analysis system based on a hydraulic model according to claim 1, characterized in that, The type division module is used to evaluate a diffusion representation value, including, using a sum of a ratio of gradient difference of the bottom of the concave region to a gradient difference threshold value and a ratio of horizontal maximum width of the concave region to a horizontal maximum width threshold value as a first diffusion feature; using a ratio of minimum distance of adjacent edges of the concave region to a minimum distance threshold value as a second diffusion feature; using a weighted sum of the first diffusion feature and the second diffusion feature as the diffusion representation value. 3.The river flood risk prediction and analysis system based on a hydraulic model according to claim 2, characterized in that, The type division module is used to divide the diffusion tendency category of the concave region, including, if the diffusion representation value of the concave region is greater than or equal to a diffusion representation threshold value, the concave region is determined as a strong diffusion tendency category; if the diffusion representation value of the concave region is less than the diffusion representation threshold value, the concave region is determined as a weak diffusion tendency category. 4.The river flood risk prediction and analysis system based on a hydraulic model according to claim 3, characterized in that, The prediction analysis module is used to analyze the concave region based on the diffusion tendency category, including, if the concave region is the strong diffusion tendency category, analyzing water flow of the concave region, determining a water flow turbulence stage, acquiring horizontal expansion speed of the concave region corresponding to the water flow turbulence stage and area change of the bottom easy-to-expand region, evaluating a water flow interference representation parameter, predicting whether there is a collapse risk, identifying a concave weak region and marking, and issuing a warning prompt information; if the concave region is the weak diffusion tendency category, adjusting the monitoring frequency of the twin monitoring module for the target river region based on the diffusion representation value. 5.The river flood risk prediction and analysis system based on a hydraulic model according to claim 1, wherein, The prediction analysis module is used to determine a water flow turbulence stage, including, controlling the twin monitoring module to place a plurality of tracking factors into the water flow, and identifying motion trajectories of the tracking factors; acquiring motion speed difference values of the tracking factors and maximum change frequency of motion speed; If the motion speed difference value is greater than the motion speed difference threshold value or / and the maximum change frequency of the motion speed is greater than the maximum change frequency threshold value, it is determined that the concave region is in a water flow turbulence stage. 6.The river flood risk prediction and analysis system based on a hydraulic model according to claim 1, wherein, The prediction analysis module is used to evaluate a water flow interference representation parameter, including, a ratio of a horizontal expansion speed of the concave region to a horizontal expansion speed threshold value as a first water flow interference feature; a ratio of an area change amount of the bottom easy expansion region to an area change threshold value as a second water flow interference feature; a sum of the first water flow interference feature and the second water flow interference feature as the water flow interference representation parameter. wherein, based on a twin model, a local concave region at the bottom of the concave region is determined, and if an area of the local concave region is greater than a predetermined area threshold value, the local concave region is determined as the bottom easy expansion region. 7.The river flood risk prediction and analysis system based on a hydraulic model according to claim 6, wherein, The prediction analysis module is used to predict whether there is a collapse risk, including, if the water flow interference representation parameter is greater than or equal to a water flow interference representation parameter threshold value, it is predicted that there is a collapse risk. 8.The water model based river flood risk prediction and analysis system of claim 1, wherein, The prediction analysis module is used to identify and mark a concave weak region, including, dividing the concave region into a plurality of sub-regions; obtaining a water flow turning frequency and a water flow speed corresponding to each of the sub-regions; if there is any sub-region meeting a dike weak condition, the sub-region is determined as the concave weak region and is marked; wherein, the dike weak condition includes that the water flow turning frequency is greater than a water flow turning frequency threshold value and the water flow speed is greater than a water flow speed threshold value. 9.The river flood risk prediction and analysis system based on a hydraulic model according to claim 1, wherein, Further including, the early warning prompt information includes the concave weak region, the corresponding water flow speed and the water flow turning frequency. 10.The river flood risk prediction and analysis system based on a hydraulic model according to claim 1, wherein, The prediction analysis module is used to adjust a monitoring frequency for the target river region based on the diffusion representation value, including, increasing the monitoring frequency for the target river region, and the increase amount of the monitoring frequency is in a positive correlation with the diffusion representation value.

Images