A typhoon disaster assessment method, device, equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The application discloses a typhoon disaster assessment method and device, equipment and storage medium, relates to the field of typhoon disaster assessment, and comprises the following steps: analyzing historical typhoon path data sets to determine historical typhoon records of a target area, and determining historical typhoon center positions according to satellite data and meteorological reanalysis data; historical polar coordinate data of the historical typhoon are determined based on the historical typhoon center positions, and a typhoon structure is extracted according to the historical polar coordinate data; wherein the typhoon structure comprises a typhoon eye, a typhoon eye wall and a peripheral wind field; a preset power law formula is used to fit historical wind speed data to determine a historical wind shear index set of the typhoon eye, the typhoon eye wall and the peripheral wind field, a target wind shear index model is established based on the historical wind shear index set; historical wind field data are determined by combining a preset typhoon wind field determination model and the target wind shear index model, and the typhoon disaster assessment result is obtained by inputting the historical wind field data into a preset typhoon disaster assessment model. The unconventional height layer typhoon disaster assessment requirement is met.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of typhoon disaster assessment, and particularly to a typhoon disaster assessment method, apparatus, equipment, and storage medium. Background Technology

[0002] The offshore wind power industry has developed rapidly in recent years, but nearshore and offshore wind farms are vulnerable to severe weather such as typhoons. Typhoons, as tropical cyclones that form in the Northwest Pacific, can damage wind turbines, cause safety accidents, and result in significant economic losses due to their strong winds.

[0003] Currently, typhoon wind field disaster assessments mostly rely on engineering experience models. Although progress has been made in simulating wind fields at the conventional height of 10 meters, with the development of larger wind turbines, the hubs of modern wind farm turbines are generally located at unconventional heights of 100-200 meters. Existing models have significant limitations in reproducing typhoon wind fields at this height.

[0004] Typhoon wind fields are characterized by variability and complexity, and their three-dimensional wind field variations are closely related to their own structure. A typhoon consists of three parts: the eye, the eyewall, and the outer wind field. The wind field environmental parameters differ significantly depending on the structure of each part. Therefore, accurately simulating the typhoon wind profile is a core technical challenge in constructing a 100-meter-high typhoon wind field model.

[0005] In conclusion, how to accurately meet the typhoon disaster assessment needs at unconventional target height levels is an urgent problem to be solved. Summary of the Invention

[0006] In view of this, the purpose of this invention is to provide a typhoon disaster assessment method, apparatus, equipment, and storage medium, which can more accurately meet the needs of typhoon disaster assessment. The specific solution is as follows:

[0007] Firstly, this application provides a typhoon disaster assessment method, including:

[0008] Analyze the historical typhoon track dataset of the target area to determine the historical typhoon records of the target area, and determine the historical typhoon center location corresponding to each historical typhoon in the historical typhoon records based on the acquired satellite data and meteorological reanalysis data;

[0009] Based on the historical typhoon center location, the historical polar coordinate data of the historical typhoon is determined, and the typhoon structure of the historical typhoon is extracted based on the historical polar coordinate data; wherein, the typhoon structure includes the typhoon eye, the typhoon eyewall, and the outer wind field;

[0010] The historical wind speed data in the typhoon structure are fitted using a preset power law formula to determine the historical wind shear index sets corresponding to the typhoon eye, eyewall, and outer wind field, respectively, and a corresponding target wind shear index model is established based on the historical wind shear index sets.

[0011] The historical wind field data of the historical typhoon at the first target height layer is determined by combining the preset typhoon wind field determination model and the target wind shear index model. The historical wind field data at the first target height layer is then input into the preset typhoon disaster assessment model to obtain the typhoon disaster assessment result of the target area at the first target height layer. The first target height layer is the height layer determined based on the height of the wind turbine hub of the wind farm.

[0012] Optionally, determining the historical polar coordinate data of the historical typhoon based on the historical typhoon center location, and extracting the typhoon structure of the historical typhoon based on the historical polar coordinate data, includes:

[0013] The target pole is determined based on the location of the center of the historical typhoon, and the target polar axis is determined based on the due north direction and / or the typhoon's forward direction.

[0014] Determine the target polar coordinate system based on the target pole and the target polar axis;

[0015] The historical typhoon records, satellite data, and meteorological reanalysis data corresponding to the historical typhoons are converted into historical polar coordinate data in the target polar coordinate system.

[0016] Optionally, the step of fitting historical wind speed data in the typhoon structure using a preset power law formula to determine the historical wind shear index sets corresponding to the typhoon eye, eyewall, and peripheral wind field respectively includes:

[0017] The initial wind shear index in the typhoon structure is determined based on a preset power law formula using historical wind speed observations at different altitudes.

[0018] The initial wind shear index is associated with the corresponding wind measurement record time to obtain the labeled wind shear index;

[0019] Obtain the region corresponding to the marked wind shear index;

[0020] The regions corresponding to the marked wind shear indices are matched with the regions of the typhoon eye, typhoon eyewall, and peripheral wind field to generate a set of historical wind shear indices corresponding to the typhoon eye, typhoon eyewall, and peripheral wind field.

[0021] Optionally, the method further includes:

[0022] Obtain the actual observed value and average value corresponding to the initial wind shear index;

[0023] The first fitting coefficient of the initial wind shear index is determined based on the initial wind shear index, the actual observed value, and the average value;

[0024] If the first fitting coefficient is less than the preset fitting coefficient threshold, then the corresponding initial wind shear index is removed.

[0025] Optionally, establishing a corresponding target wind shear index model based on the historical wind shear index set includes:

[0026] The historical wind shear index set of the typhoon eye, eyewall, and peripheral wind field is divided into a training set and a test set;

[0027] The training set is input into the initial wind shear index model to obtain the trained wind shear index model;

[0028] The test set is input into the trained wind shear index model to determine the root mean square error and the second fitting coefficient between the obtained output and the data of the test set.

[0029] Based on the obtained root mean square error and second fitting coefficient, the first target wind shear index model corresponding to the typhoon eye, the second target wind shear index model corresponding to the typhoon eyewall, and the third target wind shear index model corresponding to the peripheral wind field are determined.

[0030] Optionally, determining the historical wind field data of the historical typhoon at the first target height layer by combining the preset typhoon wind field determination model and the target wind shear index model includes:

[0031] Historical wind field data of the second target height layer of the target area are determined using a preset typhoon wind field determination model; wherein, the second target height layer is a preset height layer monitored during wind field observation;

[0032] The wind shear index of the second target height layer is determined based on historical wind field data of the second target height layer;

[0033] Historical wind field data of the first target height layer are obtained using the preset power law formula based on the wind shear index of the second target height layer.

[0034] Optionally, the step of inputting historical wind field data of the first target height layer into a preset typhoon disaster assessment model to obtain typhoon disaster assessment results for the target area at the first target height layer includes:

[0035] Historical wind field data at the first target height level are input into a preset typhoon disaster assessment model to generate a typhoon disaster map of the target area at the first target height level.

[0036] The typhoon disaster assessment model includes a typhoon potential destructive power index model or an economic assessment model based on population and economic development index factors.

[0037] Secondly, this application provides a typhoon disaster assessment device, comprising:

[0038] The center location determination module is used to analyze the historical typhoon path dataset of the target area to determine the historical typhoon records of the target area, and to determine the center location of each historical typhoon in the historical typhoon records based on the acquired satellite data and meteorological reanalysis data.

[0039] The typhoon structure extraction module is used to determine the historical polar coordinate data of the historical typhoon based on the center location of the historical typhoon, and extract the typhoon structure of the historical typhoon based on the historical polar coordinate data; wherein, the typhoon structure includes the typhoon eye, the typhoon eyewall, and the outer wind field;

[0040] The model building module is used to fit the historical wind speed data in the typhoon structure using a preset power law formula to determine the historical wind shear index sets corresponding to the typhoon eye, typhoon eyewall and peripheral wind field respectively, and to build the corresponding target wind shear index model based on the historical wind shear index sets.

[0041] The result acquisition module is used to combine the preset typhoon wind field determination model and the target wind shear index model to determine the historical wind field data of the historical typhoon at the first target height layer, and input the historical wind field data of the first target height layer into the preset typhoon disaster assessment model to obtain the typhoon disaster assessment result of the target area at the first target height layer; wherein, the first target height layer is the height layer determined based on the height of the wind turbine hub of the wind farm.

[0042] Thirdly, this application provides an electronic device, comprising:

[0043] Memory, used to store computer programs;

[0044] A processor is used to execute the computer program to implement the typhoon disaster assessment method as described above.

[0045] Fourthly, this application provides a computer-readable storage medium for storing a computer program; wherein, when the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the typhoon disaster assessment method as described above.

[0046] In summary, this application first analyzes the historical typhoon path dataset of the target area to determine the historical typhoon records of the target area. Based on the acquired satellite data and meteorological reanalysis data, it determines the historical typhoon center positions corresponding to each historical typhoon in the historical typhoon records. Based on the historical typhoon center positions, it determines the historical polar coordinate data of the historical typhoons, and extracts the typhoon structure of the historical typhoons based on the historical polar coordinate data. The typhoon structure includes the typhoon eye, the eyewall, and the peripheral wind field. A preset power law formula is used to fit the historical wind speed data in the typhoon structure to obtain the corresponding values. The historical wind shear index set corresponding to the typhoon eye, eyewall, and peripheral wind field is determined, and a corresponding target wind shear index model is established based on the historical wind shear index set. The historical wind field data of the historical typhoon at the first target height layer is determined by combining the preset typhoon wind field determination model and the target wind shear index model. The historical wind field data at the first target height layer is input into the preset typhoon disaster assessment model to obtain the typhoon disaster assessment result of the target area at the first target height layer. The first target height layer is the height layer determined based on the height of the wind turbine hub of the wind farm. As can be seen from the above, this application first obtains historical typhoon records by analyzing the historical typhoon path dataset of the target area, and determines the center position of each historical typhoon by combining satellite data and meteorological reanalysis data; then, based on the typhoon center position, it obtains historical polar coordinate data, and then extracts the typhoon structure including the typhoon eye, typhoon eyewall and peripheral wind field; then, it uses a preset power law formula to fit the historical wind speed data in the typhoon structure, determines the corresponding historical wind shear index set for each part and establishes a target wind shear index model; finally, it combines the preset typhoon wind field determination model and the target wind shear index model to obtain the historical wind field data of the historical typhoon at the first target height layer determined based on the wind turbine hub height, and then inputs the historical wind field data of the first target height layer into the preset typhoon disaster assessment model, and finally obtains the typhoon disaster assessment result of the target area at the first target height layer. In this way, by utilizing the different wind shear indices under different typhoon structures, and establishing three types of wind shear index calculation models based on effective physical evidence, combined with existing typhoon conventional layer engineering models, it is possible to quickly, efficiently and accurately reproduce the unconventional layer wind field of typhoons in historical periods, thereby improving the effectiveness and accuracy of typhoon disaster assessment at specific altitudes. Attached Figure Description

[0047] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on the provided drawings without creative effort.

[0048] Figure 1This is a flowchart of a typhoon disaster assessment method disclosed in this application;

[0049] Figure 2 This is a flowchart of a typhoon disaster assessment method disclosed in this application;

[0050] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of a typhoon disaster assessment device disclosed in this application;

[0051] Figure 4 This is a structural diagram of an electronic device disclosed in this application. Detailed Implementation

[0052] The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0053] Currently, the offshore wind power industry has developed rapidly in recent years, but nearshore and offshore wind farms are vulnerable to severe weather such as typhoons. Typhoons, tropical cyclones forming in the Northwest Pacific, can damage wind turbines, cause safety accidents, and result in significant economic losses due to their strong winds. Current typhoon wind field disaster assessments mostly rely on engineering experience models. While progress has been made in simulating wind fields at the conventional 10-meter height, with the increasing size of wind turbines, modern wind farm turbine hubs are generally located at unconventional heights of 100-200 meters. Existing models have significant limitations in reproducing typhoon wind fields at this height. Typhoon wind fields are characterized by variability and complexity, and their three-dimensional wind field variations are closely related to their own structure. A typhoon consists of three parts: the eye, the eyewall, and the outer wind field. The wind field environmental parameters differ significantly depending on the structure. Therefore, accurately simulating the typhoon wind profile is a core technical challenge in constructing a 100-meter-height typhoon wind field model. To address the aforementioned technical issues, this application discloses a typhoon disaster assessment method, apparatus, equipment, and storage medium, which can accurately meet the typhoon disaster assessment needs at unconventional target height levels.

[0054] See Figure 1 As shown in the figure, an embodiment of the present invention discloses a typhoon disaster assessment method, including:

[0055] Step S11: Analyze the historical typhoon path dataset of the target area to determine the historical typhoon records of the target area, and determine the historical typhoon center location corresponding to each historical typhoon in the historical typhoon records based on the acquired satellite data and meteorological reanalysis data.

[0056] In this embodiment, the historical best typhoon track dataset for a selected sea area is analyzed to filter out all historical typhoon records experienced by the target area. It is important to note that the historical typhoon track dataset can originate from the Meteorological Bureau's Tropical Cyclone Data Center, or from the Meteorological Agency or Warning Center. This dataset includes, but is not limited to, latitude and longitude data of typhoons every six hours, typhoon classification, maximum sustained wind speed near the typhoon center, and minimum central pressure intensity. Next, based on the specifically filtered historical typhoon records, corresponding satellite data and meteorological reanalysis data are matched to relocate the historical typhoon center position based on the satellite data or reanalysis data.

[0057] Step S12: Determine the historical polar coordinate data of the historical typhoon based on the historical typhoon center location, and extract the typhoon structure of the historical typhoon based on the historical polar coordinate data; wherein, the typhoon structure includes the typhoon eye, the typhoon eyewall, and the outer wind field.

[0058] In this embodiment, a target pole is determined based on the location of the historical typhoon center, and a target polar axis is determined based on the due north direction and / or the typhoon's forward movement direction. A target polar coordinate system is determined based on the target pole and the target polar axis. The historical typhoon records corresponding to the historical typhoons, the satellite data, and the meteorological reanalysis data are converted into historical polar coordinate data in the target polar coordinate system. Specifically, the location of the historical typhoon center is used as the target pole, and the typhoon's forward movement direction or due north direction is selected as the zero-degree azimuth reference to construct a target polar coordinate system with the typhoon center as the origin and the radial distance as the polar axis. Through the target polar coordinate system, elements such as wind field and air pressure in the historical typhoon records, cloud system and brightness temperature information provided by satellite data, and circulation and humidity data in the meteorological reanalysis data are uniformly converted into a polar coordinate framework to form a historical polar coordinate dataset with consistent spatial structure representation capabilities.

[0059] Furthermore, based on historical polar coordinate data, with the target pole (typhoon center) as the origin, the slope of wind speed relative to radial distance is calculated along various azimuth directions. Corresponding slope and wind speed thresholds are set according to the physical characteristics of the typhoon wind field, thereby objectively identifying typhoon structures such as the eye, eyewall, and peripheral wind field. In the typhoon eye region, wind speeds are extremely low and change gradually, typically approaching zero, with a correspondingly small absolute value of the radial slope, exhibiting typical characteristics of weak and stable winds. The typhoon eyewall, as the region with the strongest winds, has an inner boundary corresponding to the inflection point where the wind speed slope increases sharply, indicating that wind speed rapidly increases with distance. The outer boundary corresponds to the inflection point where the slope changes from positive to negative or decreases significantly, reflecting the trend of wind speed gradually decreasing with distance after reaching its peak. For the peripheral wind field, wind speeds are required to consistently exceed the baseline threshold of 15 m / s, while its radial slope is relatively gentle, reflecting the basic wind force characteristics of the typhoon's peripheral circulation. Meanwhile, in order to better simplify the changes in typhoon structure at different azimuth angles, we should start from 0° azimuth angle and average every 45° azimuth angle to represent the asymmetric wind field structure of the typhoon in eight directions.

[0060] Step S13: Fit the historical wind speed data in the typhoon structure using a preset power law formula to determine the historical wind shear index sets corresponding to the typhoon eye, typhoon eyewall and peripheral wind field respectively, and establish the corresponding target wind shear index model based on the historical wind shear index sets.

[0061] In this embodiment, the initial wind shear index in the typhoon structure is determined using historical wind speed observations at different altitudes based on a preset power law formula. The initial wind shear index is then associated with the corresponding wind measurement record time to obtain a labeled wind shear index. The region corresponding to the labeled wind shear index is obtained. This region is then matched with the regions of the typhoon eye, eyewall, and peripheral wind field to generate a set of historical wind shear indices corresponding to the typhoon eye, eyewall, and peripheral wind field. Specifically, based on the preset power law formula, the initial wind shear index of each region in the typhoon structure is calculated using historical wind speed values ​​observed at different altitudes.

[0062] ;

[0063] in, for The horizontal wind speed at the point; The horizontal wind speed at point b; Let b be the height of point b; for The height of the point; for The wind shear index between point b and point c.

[0064] Next, the actual observed value and average value corresponding to the initial wind shear index are obtained; a first fitting coefficient of the initial wind shear index is determined based on the initial wind shear index, the actual observed value, and the average value; if the first fitting coefficient is less than a preset fitting coefficient threshold, the corresponding initial wind shear index is removed. Specifically, the fitting effect of the initial wind shear index is verified:

[0065] ;

[0066] in, These are the fitting coefficients; This represents the actual observed value of the i-th sample; The initial wind shear index of the i-th sample is predicted based on the regression model; For all actual observations of the samples The average value; n is the sample size. When The closer the result is to 1, the better the fit. The closer the coefficient is to 0, the worse the fit. This applies to calculating the fit coefficient of the wind shear index using multi-layer wind measurement data. If the value is less than 0.9, the power law fit of the wind profile is poor, and the data at this moment should be discarded.

[0067] Understandably, after obtaining a valid initial wind shear index, the initial wind shear index is associated with the corresponding observation time to form a labeled wind shear index with time attributes. Subsequently, based on the spatial location information corresponding to these indices, they are spatially matched with the pre-divided typhoon eye, eyewall, and peripheral wind field regions to construct historical wind shear index sets for the typhoon eye, eyewall, and peripheral wind field, respectively.

[0068] In this embodiment, the historical wind shear index sets for the typhoon eye, eyewall, and peripheral wind field are divided into training and testing sets. The training set is input into an initial wind shear index model to obtain a trained wind shear index model. The testing set is input into the trained wind shear index model to determine the root mean square error and the second fitting coefficient between the obtained output and the data in the testing set. Based on the obtained root mean square error and the second fitting coefficient, a first target wind shear index model corresponding to the typhoon eye, a second target wind shear index model corresponding to the typhoon eyewall, and a third target wind shear index model corresponding to the peripheral wind field are determined. Specifically, before dividing the historical wind shear index sets, the data is preprocessed to remove missing and outlier values, and each sample is labeled with a typhoon region label and related auxiliary features. Stratified random sampling is used to split the training and testing sets in a 7:3 ratio to ensure that the proportion of typhoon eye, eyewall, and peripheral wind field samples in the two sets is consistent with the original data. In the model training phase, an initial wind shear index model is first constructed. Considering the potential nonlinear correlation between the wind shear index and multiple features, the initial model can utilize a gradient boosting regression tree or a neural network, with appropriate initial parameters set. Subsequently, the preprocessed training set is split into three subsets based on typhoon region labels: typhoon eye training subset, typhoon eyewall training subset, and peripheral wind field training subset. These subsets are then input into the initial wind shear index model for targeted training, resulting in trained wind shear index models corresponding to the three regions. After training, the test set is similarly split into three test subsets based on region labels, and each subset is input into its corresponding trained model. The model calculates the predicted wind shear index value for each test sample. Finally, the root mean square error (RMSE) and fitting coefficients between the predicted and actual wind shear index values ​​are used to calculate the predicted values.

[0069] ;

[0070] Wherein, RMSE is the root mean square error; These are actual observations; is the predicted value; n is the number of samples.

[0071] Subsequently, the optimal wind shear index model for each typhoon structure subset is selected based on the minimum root mean square error (RMSE) and the maximum coefficient of determination. Specifically, the first target wind shear index model corresponds to the typhoon eye, the second target wind shear index model corresponds to the typhoon eyewall, and the third target wind shear index model corresponds to the peripheral wind field.

[0072] Step S14: Combine the preset typhoon wind field determination model and the target wind shear index model to determine the historical wind field data of the historical typhoon at the first target height layer, and input the historical wind field data of the first target height layer into the preset typhoon disaster assessment model to obtain the typhoon disaster assessment result of the target area at the first target height layer; wherein, the first target height layer is the height layer determined based on the height of the wind turbine hub of the wind farm.

[0073] In this embodiment, a preset typhoon wind field determination model is used to determine the historical wind field data of the second target height layer of the target area. The second target height layer is a preset height layer monitored during wind field observation. The wind shear index of the second target height layer is determined based on the historical wind field data of the second target height layer. The historical wind field data of the first target height layer is obtained using the preset power law formula based on the wind shear index of the second target height layer. Specifically, the wind field data of the second target height layer is calculated based on an existing typhoon engineering model. The second target height layer can be a conventionally observed wind field, i.e., an altitude of 10m. For typhoon structures at different azimuth angles, the corresponding wind shear index model is called. With the typhoon center as the origin, eight azimuth sectors are divided from 0° to 360°. Each sector corresponds to a specific wind shear index calculation model. The azimuth angle and distance parameters of each grid point relative to the typhoon center in the historical wind field data of the second target height layer are input. The wind shear index extending from the typhoon center outwards is calculated regionally, forming a three-dimensional wind shear index field that varies with radial distance. Substituting the wind shear index calculated from each azimuth angle into the power law formula, the wind speed value of each historical typhoon case at the unconventional height layer of the target is calculated for each grid point. Spatial interpolation is then performed in conjunction with the azimuth characteristics of the wind direction to finally generate complete unconventional height layer wind field data covering the target sea area, namely the historical wind field data of the first target height layer. Since the first target height layer is the height layer of the wind turbine hub, and the wind turbine hubs of modern wind farms are generally located at a height of 100-200 meters, the first target height layer is 100-200 meters.

[0074] Finally, the historical wind field data of the first target height layer is input into a preset typhoon disaster assessment model to generate a typhoon disaster map of the target area at the first target height layer. The typhoon disaster assessment model includes a typhoon potential destructive power index model or an economic assessment model based on population and economic development index elements. Specifically, core parameters such as maximum wind speed, duration, and wind field influence range are extracted from the historical wind field data of the first target height layer, and associated with basic data such as administrative divisions, topography, population density, and infrastructure distribution of the target area, and input into the preset typhoon disaster assessment model. If the preset typhoon disaster assessment model uses the typhoon potential destructive power index model, it will use the wind speed data of the first target height layer as the core, combine the wind load calculation formula to derive the stress situation of different building structures, and introduce a terrain amplification factor, such as the wind speed amplification effect in mountainous and coastal areas, to generate the typhoon potential destructive power index (PDI) through weighted calculation.

[0075] ;

[0076] Among them, PDI is the potential destructive power index of typhoons; Let i be the wind speed of the typhoon; i is any natural number less than or equal to n; n is the number of typhoons experienced by the corresponding grid point.

[0077] If an economic assessment model based on population and economic development indices is adopted, wind field data needs to be integrated with GDP distribution, industrial layout, and population concentration data of the target area. First, risk units are divided, and then a quantitative relationship between wind speed and economic losses, such as direct property damage, indirect production stoppage losses, and the degree of impact on personnel, is established based on historical disaster statistics. This allows for the calculation of the estimated economic losses for each unit. Both models support multi-scenario simulation, allowing for the generation of assessment results under different scenarios by adjusting parameters such as typhoon intensity and movement path. Finally, the assessment results are overlaid with the geographic information system (GIS) of the target area. A hierarchical color scheme can be used, such as red representing extremely high risk, yellow representing medium risk, and green representing low risk, to generate sub-maps such as a potential destructive force spatial distribution map and an estimated economic loss distribution map. After integration, a complete typhoon disaster map at the first target height level is formed, providing visual support for disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making.

[0078] As can be seen from the above, the embodiments of this application first obtain historical typhoon records by analyzing the historical typhoon path dataset of the target area, and determine the center position of each historical typhoon by combining satellite data and meteorological reanalysis data; then, based on the typhoon center position, historical polar coordinate data are obtained, and the typhoon structure including the typhoon eye, typhoon eyewall and peripheral wind field is extracted; then, the historical wind speed data in the typhoon structure is fitted using a preset power law formula to determine the historical wind shear index set corresponding to each part and establish a target wind shear index model; finally, the historical wind field data of the historical typhoon at the first target height layer determined based on the wind turbine hub height is obtained by combining the preset typhoon wind field determination model and the target wind shear index model, and the historical wind field data of the first target height layer is input into the preset typhoon disaster assessment model, and finally the typhoon disaster assessment result of the target area at the first target height layer is obtained. In this way, by utilizing the different wind shear indices under different typhoon structures, and establishing three types of wind shear index calculation models based on effective physical evidence, combined with existing typhoon conventional layer engineering models, it is possible to quickly, efficiently and accurately reproduce the unconventional layer wind field of typhoons in historical periods, thereby improving the effectiveness and accuracy of typhoon disaster assessment at specific altitudes.

[0079] As can be seen from the previous embodiment, this application discloses a typhoon disaster assessment method, which can more accurately meet the needs of typhoon disaster assessment for selected sea areas. Next, we will address methods such as... Figure 2 The typhoon disaster assessment method shown is explained in detail.

[0080] First, this application filters historical typhoon data for the selected sea area, relocates the typhoon center based on satellite data, polarizes the wind field of the reanalysis data based on the relocated typhoon center, and determines the typhoon structure of the regional typhoon eye, eyewall, and peripheral wind field based on the radial wind field variation characteristics.

[0081] Then, by using the coefficient of determination to remove the observed wind speeds at times that do not conform to the power law wind profile in the multi-layer observation data, after quality control, the wind shear index dataset is classified into three data subsets according to the typhoon structure location: typhoon eye, typhoon eyewall, and peripheral wind field.

[0082] Next, wind shear index determination models m1 (for the typhoon eye), m2 (for the typhoon eyewall), and m3 (for the outer wind field) were established for the three data subsets respectively. The wind shear index determination models take into account the typhoon intensity at the current time, its latitude and longitude, surrounding environmental conditions, radial distance from the typhoon center, and azimuth angle, and establish a comprehensive model M=m1+m2+m3.

[0083] Finally, the recurrence time of historical typhoons is selected, and the historical wind field data of typhoons at an altitude of about 10 meters is calculated based on the dataset. The wind field grid points of the typhoon structure in the selected sea area are then input into the comprehensive model M. The wind field of unconventional typhoon layers in the selected sea area is calculated based on different wind shear indices, such as wind field data at 100-200 meters. The wind field of each unconventional height layer of typhoons is then input into the typhoon disaster assessment model. Finally, the unconventional typhoon wind disasters and losses for specific industries in the selected sea area are obtained.

[0084] See Figure 3 As shown in the figure, an embodiment of the present invention discloses a typhoon disaster assessment device, comprising:

[0085] The center location determination module 11 is used to analyze the historical typhoon path dataset of the target area to determine the historical typhoon records of the target area, and to determine the center location of each historical typhoon in the historical typhoon records based on the acquired satellite data and meteorological reanalysis data.

[0086] The typhoon structure extraction module 12 is used to determine the historical polar coordinate data of the historical typhoon based on the center position of the historical typhoon, and extract the typhoon structure of the historical typhoon based on the historical polar coordinate data; wherein, the typhoon structure includes the typhoon eye, the typhoon eyewall and the outer wind field;

[0087] The model building module 13 is used to fit the historical wind speed data in the typhoon structure using a preset power law formula to determine the historical wind shear index sets corresponding to the typhoon eye, typhoon eyewall and peripheral wind field respectively, and to build the corresponding target wind shear index model based on the historical wind shear index sets.

[0088] The result acquisition module 14 is used to combine the preset typhoon wind field determination model and the target wind shear index model to determine the historical wind field data of the historical typhoon at the first target height layer, and input the historical wind field data of the first target height layer into the preset typhoon disaster assessment model to obtain the typhoon disaster assessment result of the target area at the first target height layer; wherein, the first target height layer is the height layer determined based on the height of the wind turbine hub of the wind farm.

[0089] As can be seen from the above, this application first obtains historical typhoon records by analyzing the historical typhoon path dataset of the target area, and determines the center position of each historical typhoon by combining satellite data and meteorological reanalysis data; then, based on the typhoon center position, it obtains historical polar coordinate data, and then extracts the typhoon structure including the typhoon eye, typhoon eyewall and peripheral wind field; then, it uses a preset power law formula to fit the historical wind speed data in the typhoon structure, determines the corresponding historical wind shear index set for each part and establishes a target wind shear index model; finally, it combines the preset typhoon wind field determination model and the target wind shear index model to obtain the historical wind field data of the historical typhoon at the first target height layer determined based on the wind turbine hub height, and then inputs the historical wind field data of the first target height layer into the preset typhoon disaster assessment model, and finally obtains the typhoon disaster assessment result of the target area at the first target height layer. In this way, by utilizing the different wind shear indices under different typhoon structures, and establishing three types of wind shear index calculation models based on effective physical evidence, combined with existing typhoon conventional layer engineering models, it is possible to quickly, efficiently and accurately reproduce the unconventional layer wind field of typhoons in historical periods, thereby improving the effectiveness and accuracy of typhoon disaster assessment at specific altitudes.

[0090] In some specific embodiments, the typhoon structure extraction module 12 may specifically include:

[0091] The pole and polar axis determination unit is used to determine the target pole based on the location of the center of the historical typhoon, and to determine the target polar axis based on the due north direction and / or the typhoon's forward direction.

[0092] A polar coordinate system determination unit is used to determine the target polar coordinate system based on the target pole and the target polar axis;

[0093] The polar coordinate data conversion unit is used to convert the historical typhoon records, satellite data, and meteorological reanalysis data corresponding to the historical typhoons into historical polar coordinate data in the target polar coordinate system.

[0094] In some specific implementations, the model building module 13 may specifically include:

[0095] The first index determination unit is used to determine the initial wind shear index in the typhoon structure based on a preset power law formula and using historical wind speed observations at different heights.

[0096] The second index determination unit is used to associate and mark the initial wind shear index with the corresponding wind measurement record time to obtain the marked wind shear index.

[0097] The region acquisition unit is used to acquire the region corresponding to the marked wind shear index;

[0098] The index set generation unit is used to match the region corresponding to the marked wind shear index with the region of the typhoon eye, typhoon eyewall and peripheral wind field to generate the historical wind shear index set corresponding to the typhoon eye, typhoon eyewall and peripheral wind field.

[0099] In some specific embodiments, the typhoon disaster assessment device may further include:

[0100] The numerical acquisition module is used to acquire the actual observed value and average value corresponding to the initial wind shear index;

[0101] The first fitting coefficient determination module is used to determine the first fitting coefficient of the initial wind shear index based on the initial wind shear index, the actual observed value and the average value;

[0102] The index elimination module is used to eliminate the corresponding initial wind shear index if the first fitting coefficient is less than a preset fitting coefficient threshold.

[0103] In some specific implementations, the model building module 13 may specifically include:

[0104] An index set partitioning unit is used to partition the historical wind shear index set of the typhoon eye, eyewall, and peripheral wind field into a training set and a test set.

[0105] The exponential model acquisition unit is used to input the training set into the initial wind shear exponential model to obtain the trained wind shear exponential model.

[0106] An error and fitting coefficient determination unit is used to input the test set into the trained wind shear index model to determine the root mean square error and the second fitting coefficient between the obtained output and the data of the test set.

[0107] The index model determination unit is used to determine, based on the obtained root mean square error and the second fitting coefficient, the first target wind shear index model corresponding to the typhoon eye, the second target wind shear index model corresponding to the typhoon eyewall, and the third target wind shear index model corresponding to the peripheral wind field.

[0108] In some specific implementations, the result acquisition module 14 may specifically include:

[0109] The first wind field data determination unit is used to determine the historical wind field data of the second target height layer of the target area using a preset typhoon wind field determination model; wherein, the second target height layer is a preset height layer monitored during wind field observation;

[0110] The wind shear index determination unit is used to determine the wind shear index of the second target height layer based on historical wind field data of the second target height layer;

[0111] The historical wind field data acquisition unit is used to obtain the historical wind field data of the first target height layer based on the wind shear index of the second target height layer using the preset power law formula.

[0112] In some specific implementations, the result acquisition module 14 may specifically include:

[0113] The typhoon disaster map generation unit is used to input historical wind field data of the first target height layer into a preset typhoon disaster assessment model to generate a typhoon disaster map of the target area at the first target height layer; wherein, the typhoon disaster assessment model includes a typhoon potential destructive power index model or an economic assessment model based on population and economic development index elements.

[0114] Furthermore, embodiments of this application also disclose an electronic device, Figure 4 This is a structural diagram of an electronic device 20 according to an exemplary embodiment. The content of the diagram should not be construed as limiting the scope of this application.

[0115] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device 20 provided in an embodiment of this application. Specifically, the electronic device 20 may include: at least one processor 21, at least one memory 22, a power supply 23, a communication interface 24, an input / output interface 25, and a communication bus 26. The memory 22 stores a computer program, which is loaded and executed by the processor 21 to implement the relevant steps in the typhoon disaster assessment method disclosed in any of the foregoing embodiments. Furthermore, the electronic device 20 in this embodiment may specifically be a computer.

[0116] In this embodiment, the power supply 23 is used to provide operating voltage for each hardware device on the electronic device 20; the communication interface 24 can create a data transmission channel between the electronic device 20 and external devices, and the communication protocol it follows can be any communication protocol applicable to the technical solution of this application, and is not specifically limited here; the input / output interface 25 is used to acquire external input data or output data to the outside world, and its specific interface type can be selected according to specific application needs, and is not specifically limited here.

[0117] In addition, the memory 22, as a carrier for resource storage, can be a read-only memory, random access memory, disk or optical disk, etc. The resources stored thereon can include operating system 221, computer program 222, etc., and the storage method can be temporary storage or permanent storage.

[0118] The operating system 221 is used to manage and control the various hardware devices on the electronic device 20 and the computer program 222, which may be Windows Server, Netware, Unix, Linux, etc. In addition to including a computer program capable of performing the typhoon disaster assessment method executed by the electronic device 20 as disclosed in any of the foregoing embodiments, the computer program 222 may further include computer programs capable of performing other specific tasks.

[0119] Furthermore, this application also discloses a computer-readable storage medium for storing a computer program; wherein, when the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the aforementioned typhoon disaster assessment method. Specific steps of this method can be found in the corresponding content disclosed in the foregoing embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0120] The various embodiments in this specification are described in a progressive manner, with each embodiment focusing on its differences from other embodiments. Similar or identical parts between embodiments can be referred to interchangeably. For the apparatus disclosed in the embodiments, since it corresponds to the method disclosed in the embodiments, the description is relatively simple; relevant parts can be referred to in the method section.

[0121] Those skilled in the art will further recognize that the units and algorithm steps of the various examples described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented in electronic hardware, computer software, or a combination of both. To clearly illustrate the interchangeability of hardware and software, the components and steps of the various examples have been generally described in terms of functionality in the foregoing description. Whether these functions are implemented in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Those skilled in the art can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered beyond the scope of this application.

[0122] The steps of the methods or algorithms described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented directly by hardware, a software module executed by a processor, or a combination of both. The software module can be located in random access memory (RAM), main memory, read-only memory (ROM), electrically programmable ROM, electrically erasable programmable ROM, registers, hard disk, removable disk, CD-ROM, or any other form of storage medium known in the art.

[0123] Finally, it should be noted that in this document, relational terms such as "first" and "second" are used only to distinguish one entity or operation from another, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Furthermore, the terms "comprising," "including," or any other variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements includes not only those elements but also other elements not expressly listed, or elements inherent to such a process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitations, an element defined by the phrase "comprising one..." does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, article, or apparatus that includes said element.

[0124] The technical solutions provided in this application have been described in detail above. Specific examples have been used to illustrate the principles and implementation methods of this application. The descriptions of the above embodiments are only for the purpose of helping to understand the methods and core ideas of this application. At the same time, for those skilled in the art, there will be changes in the specific implementation methods and application scope based on the ideas of this application. Therefore, the content of this specification should not be construed as a limitation of this application.

Claims

1. A method for assessing typhoon disasters, characterized in that, include: Analyze the historical typhoon track dataset of the target area to determine the historical typhoon records of the target area, and determine the historical typhoon center location corresponding to each historical typhoon in the historical typhoon records based on the acquired satellite data and meteorological reanalysis data; Based on the historical typhoon center location, the historical polar coordinate data of the historical typhoon is determined, and the typhoon structure of the historical typhoon is extracted based on the historical polar coordinate data; wherein, the typhoon structure includes the typhoon eye, the typhoon eyewall, and the outer wind field; The historical wind speed data in the typhoon structure are fitted using a preset power law formula to determine the historical wind shear index sets corresponding to the typhoon eye, eyewall, and outer wind field, respectively, and a corresponding target wind shear index model is established based on the historical wind shear index sets. The historical wind field data of the historical typhoon at the first target height layer is determined by combining the preset typhoon wind field determination model and the target wind shear index model. The historical wind field data at the first target height layer is then input into the preset typhoon disaster assessment model to obtain the typhoon disaster assessment result of the target area at the first target height layer. The first target height layer is a height layer determined based on the height of the wind turbine hub of the wind farm. The step of determining the historical polar coordinate data of the historical typhoon based on the historical typhoon center location, and extracting the typhoon structure of the historical typhoon based on the historical polar coordinate data, includes: The target pole is determined based on the location of the center of the historical typhoon, and the target polar axis is determined based on the due north direction and / or the typhoon's forward direction. Determine the target polar coordinate system based on the target pole and the target polar axis; The historical typhoon records, satellite data, and meteorological reanalysis data corresponding to the historical typhoons are converted into historical polar coordinate data in the target polar coordinate system; The step of determining the historical wind field data of the historical typhoon at the first target height layer by combining the preset typhoon wind field determination model and the target wind shear index model includes: Historical wind field data of the second target height layer of the target area are determined using a preset typhoon wind field determination model; wherein, the second target height layer is a preset height layer monitored during wind field observation; The wind shear index of the second target height layer is determined based on historical wind field data of the second target height layer; Historical wind field data of the first target height layer are obtained using the preset power law formula based on the wind shear index of the second target height layer.

2. The typhoon disaster assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The step of fitting historical wind speed data in the typhoon structure using a preset power law formula to determine the historical wind shear index sets corresponding to the typhoon eye, eyewall, and peripheral wind field includes: The initial wind shear index in the typhoon structure is determined based on a preset power law formula using historical wind speed observations at different altitudes. The initial wind shear index is associated with the corresponding wind measurement record time to obtain the labeled wind shear index; Obtain the region corresponding to the marked wind shear index; The regions corresponding to the marked wind shear indices are matched with the regions of the typhoon eye, typhoon eyewall, and peripheral wind field to generate a set of historical wind shear indices corresponding to the typhoon eye, typhoon eyewall, and peripheral wind field.

3. The typhoon disaster assessment method according to claim 2, characterized in that, Also includes: Obtain the actual observed value and average value corresponding to the initial wind shear index; The first fitting coefficient of the initial wind shear index is determined based on the initial wind shear index, the actual observed value, and the average value; If the first fitting coefficient is less than the preset fitting coefficient threshold, then the corresponding initial wind shear index is removed.

4. The typhoon disaster assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The establishment of the corresponding target wind shear index model based on the historical wind shear index set includes: The historical wind shear index set of the typhoon eye, eyewall, and peripheral wind field is divided into a training set and a test set; The training set is input into the initial wind shear index model to obtain the trained wind shear index model; The test set is input into the trained wind shear index model to determine the root mean square error and the second fitting coefficient between the obtained output and the data of the test set. Based on the obtained root mean square error and second fitting coefficient, the first target wind shear index model corresponding to the typhoon eye, the second target wind shear index model corresponding to the typhoon eyewall, and the third target wind shear index model corresponding to the peripheral wind field are determined.

5. The typhoon disaster assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The step of inputting historical wind field data at the first target altitude level into a preset typhoon disaster assessment model to obtain typhoon disaster assessment results for the target area at the first target altitude level includes: Historical wind field data at the first target height level are input into a preset typhoon disaster assessment model to generate a typhoon disaster map of the target area at the first target height level. The typhoon disaster assessment model includes a typhoon potential destructive power index model or an economic assessment model based on population and economic development index factors.

6. A typhoon disaster assessment device, characterized in that, include: The center location determination module is used to analyze the historical typhoon path dataset of the target area to determine the historical typhoon records of the target area, and to determine the center location of each historical typhoon in the historical typhoon records based on the acquired satellite data and meteorological reanalysis data. The typhoon structure extraction module is used to determine the historical polar coordinate data of the historical typhoon based on the center location of the historical typhoon, and extract the typhoon structure of the historical typhoon based on the historical polar coordinate data; wherein, the typhoon structure includes the typhoon eye, the typhoon eyewall, and the outer wind field; The model building module is used to fit the historical wind speed data in the typhoon structure using a preset power law formula to determine the historical wind shear index sets corresponding to the typhoon eye, typhoon eyewall and peripheral wind field respectively, and to build the corresponding target wind shear index model based on the historical wind shear index sets. The result acquisition module is used to combine the preset typhoon wind field determination model and the target wind shear index model to determine the historical wind field data of the historical typhoon at the first target height layer, and input the historical wind field data of the first target height layer into the preset typhoon disaster assessment model to obtain the typhoon disaster assessment result of the target area at the first target height layer; wherein, the first target height layer is the height layer determined based on the height of the wind turbine hub of the wind farm; The typhoon structure extraction module is specifically used for: The target pole is determined based on the location of the center of the historical typhoon, and the target polar axis is determined based on the due north direction and / or the typhoon's forward direction. Determine the target polar coordinate system based on the target pole and the target polar axis; The historical typhoon records, satellite data, and meteorological reanalysis data corresponding to the historical typhoons are converted into historical polar coordinate data in the target polar coordinate system; Specifically, the result acquisition module is used for: Historical wind field data of the second target height layer of the target area are determined using a preset typhoon wind field determination model; wherein, the second target height layer is a preset height layer monitored during wind field observation; The wind shear index of the second target height layer is determined based on historical wind field data of the second target height layer; Historical wind field data of the first target height layer are obtained using the preset power law formula based on the wind shear index of the second target height layer.

7. An electronic device, characterized in that, include: Memory, used to store computer programs; A processor for executing the computer program to implement the typhoon disaster assessment method as described in any one of claims 1 to 5.

8. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, Used to store computer programs; wherein, when the computer programs are executed by a processor, they implement the typhoon disaster assessment method as described in any one of claims 1 to 5.

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