Situation deduction analysis method, system and equipment suitable for panoramic electricity market, and medium

Abstract

The invention discloses a panoramic power market situation deduction analysis method, system and device and a medium. The method comprises the steps that panoramic power initial parameters used for deducing a future target period are configured; performing deduction calculation through a parallel coupling simulation algorithm to obtain power generation side panoramic technology contribution situation data of a future target period; determining power utilization side basic technical responsibility based on the power generation side panoramic technical contribution situation data, allocating system technical service demands to different user groups according to a first allocation rule, and calculating a power utilization side total technical load and a unit electric quantity technical load; and generating a panoramic power market technology situation analysis map according to the power generation side panoramic technology contribution situation data and the power utilization side total technology load, and realizing situation deduction analysis and risk early warning. According to the invention, market technology analysis is improved from post-event statistics to beforehand deduction and in-event early warning, and a brand new quantitative analysis tool is provided for power system planning, operation optimization and risk prevention and control.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of power system operation analysis technology, and in particular to a method, system, equipment and medium applicable to panoramic power market situation projection and analysis. Background Technology

[0002] With the deepening of power market reform, the Southern China Regional Power Market, as the first regional power market in the country, has become a typical representative of a higher-level power market, gradually building a complex system that integrates multiple markets such as electricity, ancillary services, green electricity trading, and adjustable capacity. Against this backdrop, market operators need to conduct technical scenario projections of the future power market to assess system operational risks, optimize power source structure planning, and enhance the absorption capacity of new energy sources.

[0003] Current analytical techniques in provincial-level primary markets and State Grid inter-provincial spot markets primarily focus on post-market analysis or short-term forecasting for individual markets. In the analysis of inter-provincial spot markets or provincial electricity markets, independent algorithms are typically used to handle electricity market clearing and ancillary service demand calculations, resulting in isolated data between models and a lack of unified parameter configuration interfaces and data exchange mechanisms. Therefore, existing analytical methods struggle to simulate the decomposition and deviation settlement process of medium- and long-term trading curves towards the spot market, and cannot quantify the driving effect of increased renewable energy penetration on ancillary service cost growth. While inter-provincial markets have promoted the optimization of inter-provincial transactions to some extent, analytical models still lack the ability to handle the complexities of multi-market coordination involving electricity, ancillary services, capacity, and green electricity within provincial markets, and are even less capable of achieving a comprehensive analysis of the technological contributions of the generation side and the system responsibilities of the consumption side.

[0004] Therefore, existing technical solutions are significantly insufficient in addressing key technical requirements such as multi-market coupling, cross-time series extrapolation, and panoramic situational awareness. The fragmented nature of their analysis results makes it difficult to support the accurate identification and early warning of long-term technical risks in the power system. Summary of the Invention

[0005] In view of the aforementioned existing problems, the present invention is proposed.

[0006] Therefore, this invention provides a method, system, equipment, and medium suitable for panoramic power market situation simulation and analysis, solving the problem that existing analysis techniques cannot perform long-term collaborative simulation and situation simulation of multiple types of markets under a unified framework.

[0007] To solve the above-mentioned technical problems, the present invention provides the following technical solution: Firstly, the present invention provides a method for panoramic power market situation projection and analysis, including: Configure the panoramic power initial parameters for extrapolating future target cycles; Based on the aforementioned panoramic power initial parameters, a parallel coupled simulation algorithm is used to perform extrapolation and calculation to obtain the panoramic technology contribution status data of the power generation side in the future target period. Based on the panoramic technical contribution status data of the power generation side, the basic technical responsibility of the power consumption side is determined. According to the first allocation rule, the system technical service requirements are allocated to different user groups, and the total technical load and unit power technical load of the power consumption side are calculated. Based on the panoramic technical contribution status data of the power generation side and the total technical load of the power consumption side, a panoramic power market technical status analysis map is generated to realize status projection analysis and risk warning.

[0008] As a preferred embodiment of the panoramic power market situation projection and analysis method described in this invention, the determination of basic technical responsibilities on the electricity consumption side includes: Based on the principle of first-order electrical energy equivalence, the total technical contribution responsibility of the power generation side in the electricity market is determined as the basic technical responsibility that the power consumption side needs to bear.

[0009] As a preferred embodiment of the panoramic power market situation simulation and analysis method described in this invention, the step of allocating system technical service requirements to different user groups according to the first allocation rule includes: The sum of the total technical contributions of the power generation side in the ancillary services market and the adjustable capacity market is determined as the total system technical service demand to be allocated. Calculate the first responsibility coefficient, second responsibility coefficient, and third responsibility coefficient separately for different user groups; Based on preset weight parameters, the first responsibility coefficient, the second responsibility coefficient, and the third responsibility coefficient are weighted and fused to generate a comprehensive technical responsibility sharing coefficient for each user group; Based on the comprehensive technical responsibility sharing coefficient, the total demand for system technical services is allocated to each user group.

[0010] The beneficial effects of this preferred technical solution are: it transforms the principle of technical fairness into calculable multi-dimensional indicators such as load responsibility, volatility responsibility, and system dependence, thereby achieving accurate transmission of technical responsibility to the electricity user side.

[0011] As a preferred embodiment of the panoramic power market situation projection and analysis method described in this invention, the calculation of the total technical load and unit power technical load on the electricity consumption side includes: The total technical load on the electricity consumption side is obtained by summing the basic technical responsibilities on the electricity consumption side with the system technical service responsibilities allocated to all user groups. Calculate the average technical load per unit of electricity for each user group; Divide the total technical load on the electricity consumption side by the total electricity consumption of the whole society to obtain the average technical load per unit of electricity in the whole society.

[0012] As a preferred embodiment of the panoramic power market situation projection and analysis method described in this invention, the configuration of the panoramic power initial parameters for projecting future target periods includes: Configure supply-side parameters, including scale parameters, electricity category parameters, and cost parameters; the scale parameters include the installed capacity, predicted utilization hours, or maximum power generation of each type of power source; the electricity category parameters include the electricity share used to distinguish the power sources entering different markets; and the cost parameters include the fixed costs and variable costs of each type of power source. Configure market demand parameters, including total social electricity consumption, load curve, and demand structure parameters; the total social electricity consumption reflects the total market demand scale, the load curve is a typical daily, monthly, and yearly load time-series curve, and the demand structure parameters are used to calculate the technical responsibility allocation for different user groups. Configure market mechanism parameters, including the electricity market mechanism, ancillary services market mechanism, green electricity market mechanism, and adjustable capacity market mechanism.

[0013] As a preferred embodiment of the panoramic power market situation simulation and analysis method described in this invention, the simulation calculation using a parallel coupled simulation algorithm includes: The medium- and long-term contract electricity volume is decomposed into time-of-use curves, and the spot market clearing is simulated based on the load curve and the power generation capacity of the power source. Then, the deviation between the medium- and long-term contracts and the spot market is calculated. Simulate the clearing process of frequency regulation, peak shaving and backup services based on system balance requirements, and calculate the technical compensation obtained by each power source for providing ancillary services; The process of trading green electricity and environmental rights is simulated based on the green electricity trading mechanism; Simulate the capacity market clearing process based on system capacity requirements and calculate the technical compensation that each power source receives for providing reliable capacity. Based on the results of parallel coupled simulation, the technological contribution of different power source types in each market is calculated, and the panoramic technological contribution status data of the power generation side in the future target period is obtained.

[0014] As a preferred embodiment of the panoramic power market situation projection and analysis method described in this invention, the generation of the panoramic power market technology situation analysis map includes a panoramic view of market technology value, a structural view of the technology contribution of the generation side, a technical load analysis view of the power consumption side, and a view of the coupling relationship of key indicators. The panoramic view of market technology value is used to display the scale, proportion, and intertemporal trends of technology value in the electricity, ancillary services, green electricity, and adjustable capacity markets; the generation-side technology contribution structure view is used to display the composition and intertemporal changes of technology contribution of different types of power sources in various markets; the electricity consumption-side technology load analysis view is used to display the composition of total electricity consumption-side technology load and the intertemporal changes of technology load per unit of electricity; the key indicator coupling relationship view is used to display the intrinsic connections and interactions between different market technology indicators through correlation analysis.

[0015] The beneficial effects of this preferred technical solution are: it elevates market technical analysis from post-event statistics to pre-event projection and in-event early warning, providing a brand-new quantitative analysis tool for power system planning, operation optimization, and risk prevention and control.

[0016] Secondly, the present invention provides a panoramic power market situation simulation and analysis system, comprising: The initial parameter configuration module is used to configure the panoramic power initial parameters for extrapolating future target cycles; The extrapolation and calculation module is used to perform extrapolation and calculation based on the panoramic power initial parameters and through a parallel coupled simulation algorithm to obtain the panoramic technology contribution status data of the power generation side in the future target period. The allocation processing module is used to determine the basic technical responsibility of the power consumption side based on the panoramic technical contribution status data of the power generation side, allocate the system technical service requirements to different user groups according to the first allocation rule, and calculate the total technical load and unit power technical load of the power consumption side. The visualization module is used to generate a panoramic power market technical situation analysis map based on the panoramic technical contribution status data of the power generation side and the total technical load of the power consumption side, so as to realize situation projection analysis and risk warning.

[0017] Thirdly, the present invention provides an electronic device, including a memory and a processor; the memory is used to store computer-executable instructions, and the processor, when executing the computer-executable instructions, implements a step applicable to a panoramic power market situation simulation and analysis method.

[0018] Fourthly, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing computer-executable instructions that, when executed by a processor, implement steps applicable to a panoramic power market situation simulation and analysis method.

[0019] Compared with existing technologies, the beneficial effects of this invention are as follows: By constructing a unified panoramic market parameter system and parallel coupled simulation algorithms, this invention achieves collaborative technical situation simulation of the power, ancillary services, green electricity, and capacity markets. It can accurately quantify the technical contributions of various power sources in multi-market environments, providing a previously unavailable quantitative analysis tool for identifying the true technical bottlenecks of the system and formulating precise power structure planning and operation strategies. Based on a responsibility-based system responsibility allocation model, this invention transforms the principle of technical fairness into calculable multi-dimensional indicators such as load responsibility, volatility responsibility, and system dependence, achieving precise transmission of technical responsibility to the electricity consumer side. The final generated panoramic market technical situation analysis map organically integrates the technical contributions of the generation side and the technical load of the electricity consumer side through visualization technology, elevating market technical analysis from post-event statistics to pre-event projection and in-event early warning, providing a new quantitative analysis tool for power system planning, operation optimization, and risk prevention. Attached Figure Description

[0020] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings used in the following description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0021] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of the overall process logic of a panoramic power market situation simulation and analysis method provided in one embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0022] To make the above-mentioned objects, features, and advantages of the present invention more apparent and understandable, specific embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort should fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0023] Example 1, referring to Figure 1 As one embodiment of the present invention, a method for panoramic power market situation projection and analysis is provided, such as... Figure 1 The specific steps shown are as follows: S100: Configure the initial parameters for the panoramic power system used to extrapolate future target cycles; S200: Based on the initial parameters of the panoramic power system, the parallel coupled simulation algorithm is used to perform extrapolation and calculation to obtain the panoramic technology contribution status data of the power generation side in the future target period. S300: Based on the panoramic technical contribution status data of the power generation side, determine the basic technical responsibility of the power consumption side, allocate the system technical service requirements to different user groups according to the first allocation rule, and calculate the total technical load and unit power technical load of the power consumption side. S400: Generates a panoramic power market technology situation analysis map based on the panoramic technical contribution status data of the power generation side and the total technical load of the power consumption side, so as to realize situation projection analysis and risk warning.

[0024] It should be noted that, to address the limitation of existing analytical techniques in conducting long-term collaborative simulation and situational projection of multiple market types within a unified framework, steps S100-S400 above, through the construction of a unified panoramic market parameter system and parallel coupled simulation algorithms, achieve collaborative technical situational simulation of the power, ancillary services, green electricity, and capacity markets. This enables precise quantification of the technical contributions of various power sources in multi-market environments, providing a previously unavailable quantitative analysis tool for identifying the true technical bottlenecks of the system and formulating accurate power structure planning and operation strategies. The system responsibility allocation model based on responsibility attribution in this invention transforms the principle of technical fairness into calculable multi-dimensional indicators such as load responsibility, volatility responsibility, and system dependence, achieving precise transmission of technical responsibility to the electricity consumer side. The final generated panoramic market technical situational analysis map organically integrates the technical contributions of the generation side and the technical load of the electricity consumer side through visualization technology, elevating market technical analysis from post-event statistics to pre-event projection and in-event early warning, providing a new quantitative analysis tool for power system planning, operation optimization, and risk prevention.

[0025] Example 2, based on the previous example, provides a specific implementation method for the panoramic power market situation projection and analysis method, to illustrate the technical means used in this method.

[0026] In this embodiment of the invention, step S100, which configures the panoramic power initial parameters for extrapolating future target periods, includes: Specifically, supply-side parameters are configured, including scale parameters, power category parameters, and cost parameters. Scale parameters include the installed capacity, predicted utilization hours, or maximum power generation of each type of power source. Power category parameters include the power share used to differentiate the power sources entering different markets. Cost parameters include the fixed and variable costs of each type of power source.

[0027] It should be noted that the supply-side parameters are used to describe the overall capacity and structural characteristics of the power supply side in the future target year / month, providing basic data for extrapolating the technological contribution of the generation side. The supply-side parameters are configured according to power source type (market-based wind power, photovoltaic, hydropower, thermal power, energy storage, and non-market-based power sources), specifically including scale parameters, power category parameters, and cost parameters. Scale parameters are the installed capacity, predicted utilization hours, or maximum generating capacity of each type of power source, used to calculate its upper limit of market supply capacity. Power category parameters are used to distinguish the share of power entering different markets, such as priority generation, market-traded power (which can be further subdivided into medium- and long-term power and spot market power), and power participating in green electricity trading. Cost parameters are the fixed and variable costs of each type of power source, including the fuel consumption rate of thermal power and the cycle efficiency coefficient of energy storage.

[0028] Specifically, configure market demand parameters, including total electricity consumption, load curve, and demand structure parameters. Total electricity consumption reflects the overall market demand scale, the load curve is a typical daily, monthly, and yearly load time series curve, and the demand structure parameters are used to calculate the allocation of technical responsibilities for different user groups.

[0029] It should be noted that market demand parameters are used to describe the scale and characteristics of electricity demand in future target years / months, and to calculate the system balance and the technical responsibility of the electricity consumer. Market demand parameters are extrapolated by setting growth rates or constructing predictive models, and mainly include total social electricity consumption, load curves, and demand structure parameters. Total social electricity consumption reflects the overall market demand scale; the load curves are typical daily, monthly, and annual load time-series curves used for spot market clearing simulations; and the demand structure parameters are used to calculate the technical responsibility allocation for different user groups in a refined manner, including electricity consumption by industrial and commercial users and electricity purchased by the grid.

[0030] Specifically, configure market mechanism parameters, including the electricity market mechanism, ancillary services market mechanism, green electricity market mechanism, and adjustable capacity market mechanism.

[0031] It should be noted that market mechanism parameters are used to define the operational rules and connections between various markets in future target years / months, simulating market participant trading behavior and market clearing processes. Market mechanism parameters include the electricity market mechanism, ancillary services market mechanism, green electricity market mechanism, and adjustable capacity market mechanism. The electricity market mechanism includes the connection rules between medium- and long-term transactions and the spot market (day-ahead and real-time), particularly the model parameters that use a flexible decomposition model (year-to-month, month-to-day, day-to-hour) to decompose medium- and long-term contract electricity into curves and settle deviations with the spot market. The ancillary services market mechanism includes clearing rules, compensation standards, and allocation principles for ancillary services such as frequency regulation, peak shaving, and reserve. The green electricity market mechanism includes certification, trading, and consumption rules for green electricity trading and green certificate trading. The adjustable capacity market mechanism includes the technical value formation mechanism, qualification requirements, and technical responsibility allocation methods for capacity compensation or the capacity market.

[0032] In an optional embodiment, the initial parameters of the panoramic power system may also include grid operation constraint parameters, which are used to define physical operation boundary conditions such as transmission section limits, critical node voltage safety ranges, and system reserve capacity requirements, to ensure that the simulation process conforms to the actual safe operation law of the power grid.

[0033] In another optional embodiment, the initial parameters of the panoramic power system may also include policy environment parameters to describe external policy variables such as carbon emission quota allocation schemes, renewable energy consumption responsibility weights, and inter-regional transmission pricing mechanisms, in order to quantitatively analyze the long-term impact of policy guidance on the market technology landscape.

[0034] In this embodiment of the invention, step S200, based on the initial parameters of the panoramic power system, uses a parallel coupled simulation algorithm to perform extrapolation calculations to obtain the panoramic technology contribution status data of the power generation side for the future target period, including: The medium- and long-term contract electricity volume is decomposed into time-of-use curves, and the spot market clearing is simulated based on the load curve and the power generation capacity of the power source. Then, the deviation between the medium- and long-term contracts and the spot market is calculated. Simulate the clearing process of frequency regulation, peak shaving and backup services based on system balance requirements, and calculate the technical compensation obtained by each power source for providing ancillary services; The process of trading green electricity and environmental rights is simulated based on the green electricity trading mechanism; Simulate the capacity market clearing process based on system capacity requirements and calculate the technical compensation that each power source receives for providing reliable capacity. Based on the results of parallel coupled simulation, the technological contribution of different power source types in each market is calculated, and the panoramic technological contribution status data of the power generation side in the future target period is obtained.

[0035] It should be noted that intelligent algorithms are used to simulate market clearing and trading behavior, quantitatively analyzing the comprehensive technological contribution of various power sources in future target years / months. The electricity market includes both medium- and long-term transactions and spot transactions. Medium- and long-term transactions primarily use smart contracts to form electricity contracts for a future period, which are then decomposed into time-of-day curves using an intelligent decomposition model. Spot transactions include both the current market and the real-time market, using intelligent clearing algorithms to generate time-of-day technical value indicators.

[0036] Specifically, the electricity market simulation includes: medium- and long-term transaction simulation, which automatically decomposes the configured medium- and long-term contract electricity into time-of-use curves using a neural network decomposition algorithm, serving as the basic power generation plan for the power source; and spot transaction simulation, which uses the load curve in the market demand parameters as the demand-side input, and the technical characteristics and power generation capacity of various power sources as the supply-side input, and simulates and calculates the clearing technical value index and the winning bid electricity of various power sources according to the spot market intelligent clearing algorithm; and intelligently compares the medium- and long-term decomposed curves with the winning bid electricity in the spot market, and calculates the deviation technical responsibility according to the configured deviation assessment algorithm.

[0037] Specifically, the ancillary services market simulation includes: intelligently simulating the technical bidding and clearing process for various power sources participating in frequency regulation, peak shaving, and reserve markets, based on the ancillary service demand generated by the system to balance the volatility of new energy sources and the uncertainty of load in the electricity market (this demand is automatically derived through a prediction algorithm). The simulation process, according to the configured ancillary services market mechanism, calculates the technical compensation contribution that each power source receives for providing ancillary services through a performance evaluation algorithm.

[0038] Specifically, the green electricity market simulation includes: for power sources configured with green electricity trading capacity, simulating the trading of their green electricity capacity and environmental rights according to the defined green electricity market intelligent trading mechanism, and calculating their environmental technology contribution in the green electricity market through an environmental benefit algorithm.

[0039] Specifically, the adjustable capacity market simulation includes: simulating the clearing of the adjustable capacity market using capacity demand forecasting algorithms based on the system's technical requirements for reliable capacity; and calculating the capacity reliability contribution of eligible power sources such as thermal power and energy storage, based on their available capacity and the capacity technology value formation mechanism, using reliability assessment algorithms.

[0040] In this embodiment of the invention, the acquisition of the panoramic technology contribution status data of the power generation side in the future target period is calculated through the following intelligent mathematical model, including: The total technical contribution of the electricity market is obtained by calculating the technical contribution of the spot market, the technical contribution of medium- and long-term contracts, and the deviation assessment using the electricity market technical contribution model. The formula is as follows: in, For power supply Total technological contribution of the online spot market This represents the total number of time periods. , for Before the designated time period, implement the market system efficiency coefficient. , For power supply exist The period before the date and the real-time winning bid volume; For power supply Technical contributions to medium- and long-term contracts For power supply The total number of medium- and long-term contracts signed. , For power supply No. The power supply reliability coefficient and power consumption of the medium- and long-term contracts. , For power supply Medium and long-term contract electricity volume Decomposed electricity over time period This is the deviation assessment coefficient. for Factors affecting system stability over time periods; For power supply Total technological contribution to the electricity market; Calculate the power supply using an ancillary service market technology contribution model, taking frequency modulation as an example. The total technological contribution to the FM market can be expressed by the following formula: in, For power supply In terms of total technological contribution to the FM market , for Time-of-use frequency regulation capacity value coefficient and frequency regulation power value coefficient , For power supply exist Frequency modulation capacity and frequency modulation power provided during the time period For power supply The frequency modulation performance coefficient reflects the response speed and accuracy.

[0041] Calculate the power source using the green electricity market environmental contribution model. The total environmental contribution of the green electricity market can be expressed by the following formula: in, For power supply In terms of the overall environmental contribution of the green electricity market , The environmental benefit coefficient of green electricity and the environmental impact coefficient of conventional electricity are used to compare them. For power supply The amount of green electricity traded. , Green certificate prices and power supply The volume of green certificate transactions; Calculate the power supply's reliability contribution using an adjustable capacity market reliability contribution model. The formula for the contribution of total capacity reliability is expressed as: in, For power supply In terms of contribution to overall capacity reliability, The system adequacy requirement coefficient per unit capacity. For power supply Rated installed capacity, For power supply The capacity reliability coefficient.

[0042] Furthermore, the aggregate model of the total technology contribution of the power generation side in various markets is as follows: in, This represents the total number of power supply types. , , , These represent the total technological contributions of the power generation side in the markets of electrical energy, ancillary services, green electricity, and adjustable capacity.

[0043] Furthermore, the integrated technical scoring model for the power generation side is as follows: in, A comprehensive technical score for the power generation side. 、 、 、 The technological weighting of each market.

[0044] It should be noted that the final output and focus is a structured set of panoramic technical contribution situational data for the power generation side, of which the detailed data of the first layer ( , , , Intelligent analysis algorithms can be used to assess the technological contribution of each specific type of power source in a specific market; the second layer is the total technological contribution data of the market ( , , , Clustering algorithms can be used to analyze the technological value structure of the entire power generation side in different markets, intelligently determine the contribution of the electricity market, ancillary services market, etc., to the total technological contribution of the power generation side, and reflect the evolution of the market structure; the third layer is a panoramic comprehensive technology score ( It is a core macro-indicator that measures the overall technical status of the entire power generation side in the target year / month through intelligent evaluation algorithms.

[0045] In this embodiment of the invention, step S300, which determines the basic technical responsibility of the power consumption side based on the panoramic technical contribution status data of the power generation side, allocates the system technical service requirements to different user groups according to the first allocation rule, and calculates the total technical load and unit power technical load of the power consumption side, includes the following sub-steps C1~C3: In C1: Determining the basic technical responsibilities of the electricity consumer side includes: based on the principle of first energy equivalence, determining the total technical contribution responsibility of the power generation side in the electricity market as the basic technical responsibility that the electricity consumer side needs to bear; Specifically, in this embodiment, the first principle of electrical energy equivalence is the principle of electrical energy value equivalence. This means that the total value of electrical energy technology formed by the power generation side through intelligent competition in the electricity market should be transmitted to the electricity consumption side without loss through intelligent algorithms. This includes not only the technical responsibility for the electrical energy itself, but also implicitly the system balancing technical responsibility for the portion of electricity production and delivery that has not yet been separately priced. The formula is expressed as: in, Responsible for the technical aspects of basic electrical energy on the electricity consumption side.

[0046] In an optional embodiment, the first principle of electrical energy equivalence can also be the principle of system balance responsibility transmission, which emphasizes that the technical costs (such as output adjustment, frequency response, etc.) incurred by the power generation side to maintain the real-time balance of the system should be equivalently transmitted to the power consumption side.

[0047] In another alternative embodiment, the first principle of electrical energy equivalence can also be the principle of conservation of electrical energy technology value, which means that the total amount of technology value formed by the power generation side in the electrical energy market, after deducting transmission losses, should be kept in balance with the total amount of technology responsibility borne by the power consumption side.

[0048] In C2: The system's technical service requirements are allocated to different user groups according to the first allocation rule; detailed steps include: The sum of the total technical contributions of the power generation side in the ancillary services market and the adjustable capacity market is determined as the total system technical service demand to be allocated. Calculate the first responsibility coefficient, second responsibility coefficient, and third responsibility coefficient separately for different user groups; Based on preset weight parameters, the first responsibility coefficient, the second responsibility coefficient, and the third responsibility coefficient are weighted and integrated to generate a comprehensive technical responsibility sharing coefficient for each user group; Based on the comprehensive technical responsibility sharing coefficient, the total demand for system technical services is allocated to each user group.

[0049] It should be noted that users have different technical responsibilities for system services such as ancillary services and capacity; the allocation should not be based solely on electricity consumption, but should analyze the technical responsibility weight of the pressure that users' electricity consumption behavior puts on the system; and a comprehensive technical responsibility allocation coefficient should be constructed by combining the three dimensions of basic load responsibility coefficient (first responsibility coefficient), volatility responsibility coefficient (second responsibility coefficient), and system dependence responsibility coefficient (third responsibility coefficient) through machine learning algorithms.

[0050] In an optional embodiment, the responsibility factor can also be a peak-hour responsibility factor, which quantifies the degree to which users contribute to the peak demand of the system during high-load periods, reflecting their impact on the adequacy of system capacity.

[0051] In another alternative embodiment, the responsibility factor can also be a regional network congestion responsibility factor, which assesses the severity of congestion caused by user electricity consumption behavior at specific transmission sections or key nodes, reflecting the local pressure it puts on the safe and stable operation of the power grid.

[0052] Specifically, the total technical service requirements for the system to be allocated are as follows: in, Defined as the total technical service requirements needed to maintain the safe and stable operation of the system and its long-term capacity adequacy.

[0053] Specifically, the comprehensive technical responsibility sharing coefficient for each user group is generated, expressed by the formula: in, For user groups The comprehensive technical responsibility sharing coefficient, , , These are configurable weighting parameters, representing the weights of basic load responsibility, volatility responsibility, and system dependency responsibility in the total coefficient, respectively, and are set by the market regulatory agency according to policy objectives. For user groups The basic load responsibility factor, For user groups Projected total electricity consumption for the target year / month in the future. The total electricity consumption of the whole society in the target year / month; For user groups Volatility liability coefficient, The total number of time periods within the analyzed period. For user groups exist Load during a specific time period For user groups Average load during the analysis period, For the system in The net load for a given period is calculated using the following formula: , The total system load, Contribute to the overall development of new energy. This represents the average net load of the system during the analysis period. The total number of users; For user groups The system dependency coefficient, For user groups The maximum demand or peak electricity consumption.

[0054] Specifically, the formula for calculating the system technical service responsibility for each user group is as follows: in, For user groups The responsibility for system technical services allocated to the system.

[0055] In an optional embodiment, the first allocation rule may also be an allocation rule based on the marginal responsibility of nodes, which determines the proportion of responsibility by calculating the changes in marginal operating costs caused by the user's electricity consumption behavior at key nodes of the power grid.

[0056] In an optional embodiment, the first allocation rule can also be a contribution-based allocation rule, which uses data tracing technology to analyze the strength of the causal relationship between user load fluctuations and system-specific technical service demands to allocate responsibility.

[0057] In C3: Calculate the total technical load and unit power technical load on the electricity consumption side; Specifically, the total technical load on the electricity side is obtained by summing the basic technical responsibilities on the electricity consumption side with the system technical service responsibilities allocated to all user groups. The formula is as follows: in, The total system technical load borne by the electricity consumption side.

[0058] Specifically, calculations are performed for each user group to obtain the average technical load per unit of electricity for that user group, expressed by the formula: in, For user groups The average unit power technical load.

[0059] Specifically, the average technical load per unit of electricity consumption is obtained by dividing the total technical load on the electricity consumption side by the total electricity consumption of the whole society. The formula is as follows: in, This refers to the average technical load per unit of electricity across the entire society.

[0060] In this embodiment of the invention, step S400 generates a panoramic power market technical situation analysis map based on the panoramic technical contribution situation data of the power generation side and the total technical load of the power consumption side, thereby realizing situation projection analysis and risk warning, including: Specifically, the panoramic power market technology landscape analysis map includes a panoramic view of market technology value, a view of the technology contribution structure on the generation side, a view of the technology load analysis on the consumption side, and a view of the coupling relationship of key indicators.

[0061] Specifically, the panoramic view of market technology value is used to showcase the scale, proportion, and inter-period trends of technology value in the electricity, ancillary services, green electricity, and adjustable capacity markets. Graphics: A pie chart shows the distribution of technology value in a given year; a stacked area chart shows the evolution of the composition of technology value in each market over the years; and a line chart shows the total technology value and the year-on-year change rate. Purpose: To provide a clear overview of the overall market size, structural evolution, and development speed.

[0062] Specifically, the generation-side technology contribution structure view is used to show the composition and inter-period changes of technology contributions for different types of power sources in various markets. Graphics: Stacked bar charts are used to show the total technology contribution composition of each power source (how much electrical energy, ancillary services, etc. account for), grouped bar charts are used to compare the technology contributions of different power sources in the same year, and line charts are used to show the inter-year trends of technology contributions for a single power source or a single market; Purpose: To reveal the technology contribution patterns, competitiveness changes, and market environment impacts of power sources with different technology routes.

[0063] Specifically, the electricity consumption-side technical load analysis view is used to display the composition of the total technical load on the electricity consumption side and the intertemporal changes in technical load per unit of electricity. Graphically: A stacked bar chart is used to display the composition of the total technical load, and a dual-axis line chart (the left axis represents the total technical load, and the right axis represents the technical load per unit of electricity) is used to simultaneously display the changing trends of absolute technical load and unit technical load. Purpose: To assess changes in the total social electricity burden and analyze the driving factors of the increase in technical load (whether it is an increase in the technical value of electricity itself or an increase in the demand for system technical services).

[0064] Specifically, the key indicator coupling relationship view is used to demonstrate the inherent connections and interactions between different market technical indicators through correlation analysis. Graphics: Scatter plots and trend lines: showing the relationship between "new energy penetration rate" and "the proportion of ancillary service technology value in total value," verifying the driving effect of new energy grid connection on system technology demand; Linkage curves: comparing the average price curve of the spot market with the average price curve of frequency regulation clearing on the same time scale to analyze the synchronicity of technology value fluctuations; Sankey diagrams: showing the flow of technology value, such as from industrial and commercial users and grid agents purchasing current to the electricity market and ancillary service market, and finally allocating it to thermal power, energy storage, and other power sources; Purpose: to reveal the causal logic between market elements and answer the "why" question, for example: Why did the technical load per unit of electricity increase this year? It's because the increase in new energy has led to a significant increase in the demand for ancillary services.

[0065] It should be noted that the final panoramic market technology situation analysis map is used for market trend judgment, intuitively identifying the long-term development trajectory of various markets, power sources, and power consumption technology loads; it is also used for risk warning, through outlier and coupling analysis, to identify potential technology value risks, revenue and expenditure imbalance risks, or structural risks in advance.

[0066] As described in the above embodiments, this invention, by constructing a unified panoramic market parameter system and a parallel coupled simulation algorithm, achieves collaborative technical situation simulation of the power, ancillary services, green electricity, and capacity markets. It can accurately quantify the technical contributions of various power sources in multi-market environments, providing a previously unavailable quantitative analysis tool for identifying the true technical bottlenecks of the system and formulating precise power structure planning and operation strategies. Based on a responsibility-based system responsibility allocation model, this invention transforms the principle of technical fairness into calculable multi-dimensional indicators such as load responsibility, volatility responsibility, and system dependence, achieving precise transmission of technical responsibility to the electricity consumer side. The final generated panoramic market technical situation analysis map organically integrates the technical contributions of the generation side and the technical load of the electricity consumer side through visualization technology, elevating market technical analysis from post-event statistics to pre-event projection and in-event early warning, providing a new quantitative analysis tool for power system planning, operation optimization, and risk prevention.

[0067] Example 3: This example provides a panoramic power market situation simulation and analysis system, including: The initial parameter configuration module is used to configure the panoramic power initial parameters for extrapolating future target cycles; The extrapolation and calculation module is used to perform extrapolation and calculation based on the panoramic power initial parameters and through parallel coupled simulation algorithms to obtain the panoramic technology contribution status data of the power generation side in the future target period. The allocation processing module is used to determine the basic technical responsibility of the power consumption side based on the panoramic technical contribution status data of the power generation side, allocate the system technical service requirements to different user groups according to the first allocation rule, and calculate the total technical load and unit power technical load of the power consumption side. The visualization module is used to generate a panoramic power market technical situation analysis map based on the panoramic technical contribution status data of the power generation side and the total technical load of the power consumption side, so as to realize situation projection analysis and risk warning.

[0068] It should be noted that the technical solution applicable to the panoramic power market situation simulation and analysis system and the technical solution applicable to the panoramic power market situation simulation and analysis method mentioned above belong to the same concept. For details not described in detail in the technical solution applicable to the panoramic power market situation simulation and analysis system in this embodiment, please refer to the description of the technical solution applicable to the panoramic power market situation simulation and analysis method mentioned above.

[0069] The above-mentioned unit modules can be embedded in the processor of the electronic device in hardware form or independent of it, or they can be stored in the memory of the electronic device in software form, so that the processor can call and execute the corresponding operations of the above modules.

[0070] This embodiment also provides an electronic device, which includes a processor, a memory, a communication interface, a display screen, and an input device connected via a system bus. The processor provides computing and control capabilities. The memory includes a non-volatile storage medium and internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and computer programs. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage medium. The communication interface is used for wired or wireless communication with external terminals; wireless communication can be achieved through Wi-Fi, carrier networks, NFC (Near Field Communication), or other technologies. When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements a method for panoramic power market situation simulation and analysis. The display screen can be a liquid crystal display (LCD) or an e-ink display. The input device can be a touch layer covering the display screen, buttons, a trackball, or a touchpad mounted on the device's casing, or an external keyboard, touchpad, or mouse.

[0071] This embodiment also provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the method proposed in the above embodiments.

[0072] The storage medium proposed in this embodiment belongs to the same inventive concept as the method proposed in the above embodiments. Technical details not described in detail in this embodiment can be found in the above embodiments, and this embodiment has the same beneficial effects as the above embodiments.

[0073] Based on the above description of the implementation methods, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that the present invention can be implemented using software and necessary general-purpose hardware, and of course, it can also be implemented using hardware, but in many cases the former is a better implementation method. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, or the part that contributes to the prior art, can be embodied in the form of a software product. This computer software product can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as a computer floppy disk, read-only memory, random access memory, flash memory, hard disk, or optical disk, and includes several instructions to cause an electronic device (which may be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to execute the method of the embodiments of the present invention.

[0074] It should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and are not intended to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications or equivalent substitutions can be made to the technical solutions of the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the present invention, and all such modifications or substitutions should be covered within the scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for panoptic power market situation deduction analysis, characterized in that, The method comprises the following steps: configuring panoramic power initial parameters for deducing a future target period; based on the panoramic power initial parameters, performing deducing calculation through a parallel coupling simulation algorithm to obtain power generation side panoramic technical contribution situation data of the future target period; determining power consumption side basic technical responsibility based on the power generation side panoramic technical contribution situation data, allocating system technical service demand to different user groups according to a first allocation rule, and calculating power consumption side total technical load and unit power technical load; generating a panoramic power market technical situation analysis graph based on the power generation side panoramic technical contribution situation data and the power consumption side total technical load, and realizing situation deducing analysis and risk early warning.

2. A method for analyzing the situation of the panorama electricity market as claimed in claim 1, wherein, The determination of the power consumption side basic technical responsibility comprises: based on a first electric energy equivalence principle, determining the total technical contribution responsibility of the power generation side in the electric energy market as the basic technical responsibility to be borne by the power consumption side.

3. A method for analyzing the situation of the panorama electricity market as claimed in claim 2, wherein, The allocation of the system technical service demand to different user groups according to the first allocation rule comprises: determining the sum of the total technical contribution of the power generation side in the auxiliary service market and the adjustable capacity market as the total system technical service demand to be allocated; calculating a first responsibility coefficient, a second responsibility coefficient and a third responsibility coefficient for different user groups respectively; based on a preset weight parameter, performing weighted fusion on the first responsibility coefficient, the second responsibility coefficient and the third responsibility coefficient to generate a comprehensive technical responsibility allocation coefficient of each user group; allocating the total system technical service demand to each user group according to the comprehensive technical responsibility allocation coefficient.

4. A method for analyzing the situation of the panorama electricity market as claimed in claim 3, wherein, The calculation of the power consumption side total technical load and unit power technical load comprises: adding the sum of the power consumption side basic technical responsibility and the system technical service responsibility allocated by all user groups to obtain the power consumption side total technical load; calculating the average unit power technical load corresponding to each user group; dividing the power consumption side total technical load by the total power consumption of the whole society to obtain the average unit power technical load of the whole society.

5. A method for analyzing the situation of the panorama electricity market as claimed in claim 1, wherein, The configuration of the panoramic power initial parameters for deducing the future target period comprises: configuring supply side parameters, including scale parameters, power category parameters and cost parameters; the scale parameters include the installed capacity, predicted utilization hours or maximum available power generation of each type of power source, the power category parameters include power shares for distinguishing into different markets, and the cost parameters include fixed costs and variable costs of each type of power source; configuring market demand parameters, including total power consumption of the whole society, load curve and demand structure parameters; the total power consumption of the whole society reflects the total market demand scale, the load curve is a load time curve of a typical day, month and year, and the demand structure parameters are used to calculate technical responsibility allocation of different user groups; configuring market mechanism parameters, including electric energy market mechanism, auxiliary service market mechanism, green power market mechanism and adjustable capacity market mechanism.

6. A method for pan-European electricity market situation analysis as claimed in claim 5, characterized in that, The deducing calculation through the parallel coupling simulation algorithm comprises: decomposing medium and long-term contract power into a time curve, simulating spot market clearing based on the load curve and power source available power generation, and then calculating the deviation between the medium and long-term contract and the spot market; According to the system balance demand, the frequency modulation, peak shaving and standby service clearing process is simulated, and the technical compensation obtained by each power supply for providing auxiliary services is calculated; According to the green electricity trading mechanism, the trading process of green electricity and environmental rights is simulated; According to the system capacity demand, the clearing process of the capacity market is simulated, and the technical compensation obtained by each power supply for providing reliable capacity is calculated; Based on the results of parallel coupling simulation, the technical contribution of each power supply type in each market is calculated to obtain the future target period's full-view technical contribution situation data of the power generation side.

7. A method for pan-European electricity market situation analysis as claimed in claim 6, characterized in that, The generation of the full-view power market technical situation analysis atlas includes a market technical value full-view, a power generation side technical contribution structure view, a power consumption side technical load analysis view and a key indicator coupling relationship view. The market technical value full-view is used to show the technical value size, proportion and cross-period trend of the energy market, auxiliary service market, green electricity market and adjustable capacity market; the power generation side technical contribution structure view is used to show the technical contribution composition and cross-period change of different types of power supply in each market; the power consumption side technical load analysis view is used to show the composition of the total technical load of the power consumption side and the cross-period change of the unit electricity quantity technical load; and the key indicator coupling relationship view is used to show the internal relationship and interaction between different market technical indicators through correlation analysis.

8. A system for panoramic power market situation evolution analysis, applying a method for panoramic power market situation evolution analysis according to any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that, It comprises: An initial parameter configuration module for configuring full-view power initial parameters for deducing a future target period; A deducing calculation module for deducing calculation based on the full-view power initial parameters through a parallel coupling simulation algorithm to obtain the full-view technical contribution situation data of the power generation side in the future target period; An allocation processing module for determining the power consumption side basic technical responsibility based on the full-view technical contribution situation data of the power generation side, allocating the system technical service demand to different user groups according to a first allocation rule, and calculating the total technical load and unit electricity quantity technical load of the power consumption side; A visual display module for generating a full-view power market technical situation analysis atlas according to the full-view technical contribution situation data of the power generation side and the total technical load of the power consumption side to realize situation deduction analysis and risk early warning. 9.An electronic device comprising a memory and a processor, the electronic device characterized by: The memory is used to store computer executable instructions, and the processor executes the computer executable instructions to realize the steps of the full-view power market situation deduction analysis method according to any one of claims 1-7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having computer-executable instructions stored thereon, characterized in that: The computer executable instructions are executed by the processor to realize the steps of the full-view power market situation deduction analysis method according to any one of claims 1-7.

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