Energy storage project auxiliary investment decision-making tool based on physical option method

Abstract

The invention discloses an energy storage project auxiliary investment decision-making tool based on a physical option method, and belongs to the technical field of energy, and the tool comprises the following steps: S1, constructing a multi-dimensional investment construction benefit evaluation index system, and presetting or supporting a user to input index values; s2, fusing the energy storage system performance attenuation dynamic model and establishing a cash flow discount model to obtain a mixed integer linear programming optimization model; s3, calculating a project net present value and an option value of the delayed investment through a BSM entity option model, and performing summation to obtain a project extension net present value; and S4, obtaining an optimal independent energy storage project investment decision by comparing the income condition and the investment parameter corresponding to the investment strategy. By adopting the energy storage project auxiliary investment decision-making tool based on the physical option method, a full-process closed-loop service from data support to optimal strategy output is provided for investors, the investment risk and decision-making deviation are effectively reduced, and the demand of a chemical energy storage project is accurately adapted.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of energy technology, and in particular to an auxiliary investment decision-making tool for energy storage projects based on the real options approach. Background Technology

[0002] As the installed capacity of wind and solar renewable energy expands, problems such as disorderly grid connection and wind and solar curtailment become prominent. Energy storage projects have become a solution. Electrochemical energy storage projects are characterized by high unit investment and rapid technological iteration. Traditional energy storage project investment assessment based on calculation tables is mostly based on net present value methods, while real options methods, which have the function of quantifying the delayed investment value, attempt to achieve benefit assessment by building models or simulations.

[0003] However, traditional calculation table evaluation methods ignore the flexibility of investment timing and cannot optimize parameters as decision variables, thus having limited reference value. Existing real options related applications generally suffer from idealized scenario settings, insufficient consideration of actual factors such as market frictions, incomplete coverage of influencing factors such as revenue sources and financing strategies, poor generalization ability due to reliance on historical data in some applications, and application scenarios are mostly limited to the power generation side, making it difficult to fully adapt to the complex characteristics and actual investment needs of energy storage projects. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of this invention is to provide an auxiliary investment decision-making tool for energy storage projects based on real options, thereby solving the aforementioned technical problems.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, this invention provides an auxiliary investment decision-making tool for energy storage projects based on real options, comprising the following steps: S1. Based on the evaluation needs of independent energy storage project investment and construction, a multi-dimensional investment and construction benefit evaluation index system covering construction foundation, operation core and financial constraints is constructed and preset or supports user input index values ​​to obtain complete project evaluation index parameters. S2. Based on the project evaluation index parameters in step S1, by taking the investor's own needs as decision variables and existing conditions as constraints, the dynamic model of energy storage system performance degradation and the cash flow discount model are integrated to obtain a mixed integer linear programming optimization model that can quantify project income and expenditure. S3. Based on the project cash flow data of the mixed integer linear programming optimization model in step S2, calculate the project net present value and the option value of deferred investment through the BSM real option model and sum them to obtain the extended net present value of the project for the corresponding immediate investment strategy and the deferred investment strategy. S4. Based on the project extended net present value of the corresponding immediate investment strategy and delayed investment strategy in step 3, the optimal independent energy storage project investment decision is obtained by comparing the returns and investment parameters of the two investment strategies.

[0006] Preferably, in the independent energy storage investment and construction benefit evaluation index system in step S1, the basic construction indicators include: the construction capacity of the energy storage project. Energy storage facility charge / discharge rate Unit capacity battery investment cost Construction period time ; Key operational metrics include: peak electricity price Off-peak electricity price Frequency modulation performance indicators Frequency modulation times Frequency modulation settlement price Capacity rental price System annual operating days Daily charge / discharge cycles System charge and discharge efficiency Depth of charge and discharge Annual capacity decay coefficient of energy storage system Unit capacity operation and maintenance costs Operating cycle Depreciation period of fixed assets Fixed asset residual value rate Annual insurance premium rate ; Financial constraints include: Value Added Tax (VAT) rate Urban maintenance and construction tax rate Education surcharge rate Local education surcharge Income tax rate Discount rate .

[0007] Preferably, the decision variables in step S2 include: investment principal. Loan amount Loan interest rate Loan term Expected payback period Frequency modulation capacity ratio and capacity occupancy ratio .

[0008] Preferably, the project revenue and expenditure in step S2 includes revenue items and expenditure items, wherein the revenue items include annual electricity market sales revenue. Annual revenue from FM ancillary services and annual revenue from capacity leasing The calculation formulas are as follows: ; ; ; in, , For the first Annual energy storage system capacity retention rate, and ; Expenses include annual interest payments. Annual principal repayment Operating costs ,VAT Surcharge Replacement cost and income tax The calculation formulas are as follows: ; ; ; ; ; ; ; in, This is the method of loan repayment, and For equal principal and interest repayment, Repayment is made in equal principal installments; For the replacement behavior to occur, No replacement occurred; and These are output tax and input tax, respectively, and the calculation formulas are as follows: ; ; The depreciation value for the current period is calculated using the following formula: .

[0009] Preferably, the expenditure items in the mixed-integer linear programming optimization model in step S2 include linear constraints and nonlinear constraints. A commercial solver is used to solve the linear constraints, the Big M method is applied to transform the nonlinear constraints into linear constraints, and a commercial solver is used to solve the transformed linear constraints.

[0010] Preferred option: Value Added Tax and income tax By performing linear transformations sequentially, the corresponding linear constraints are obtained. and Then the present value of the project's annual net cash inflows The calculation formula is: ; Furthermore, based on the discounted cash flow, an objective function is set to maximize the present value of the expected payback period. The calculation formula is as follows: ; in, For the first The present value of annual net cash flow is summed to obtain the total present value of all net cash flows within the expected payback period.

[0011] Preferably, the specific steps of step S3 are as follows: S31. Present value of annual net cash inflows of the project based on the project evaluation index parameters in step S1 and the cash flow model in step S2. and present value of investment costs Input into the BSM real options model; S32. Calculate the option value of the deferred investment using the BSM formula from step S31. The calculation formula is: ; in, To delay the investment period; The risk-free rate; considering the net present value over the period. The calculation formula is: , The present value of the project's net cash inflows over the consideration period, discounted at the risk-free rate, is calculated using the following formula: ; The present value of the project investment cost is calculated using the following formula: ; and The variables representing the cumulative distribution function under the standard normal distribution are respectively less than and The probability, and , ; S33. Project net present value based on step S32 Set the judgment criteria, specifically: if the project's net present value... If the project's net present value is [not specified], then investment will be made; if the project's net present value [not specified If the delay duration is reached, the calculation will return to step 2 until the preset maximum delay duration is reached. S34. Calculate the net present value of the project from step S32. With option value The summation is used to obtain the project value under different investment strategies. The calculation formula is as follows: ; in, Extended net present value (NPV) is used to measure the returns of different investment strategies for projects.

[0012] Preferably, the investment decision for the independent energy storage project in step S4 includes: investment timing, construction capacity, financing structure, capacity allocation ratio, and the corresponding extended net present value of the project.

[0013] Therefore, the beneficial effects of the energy storage project auxiliary investment decision-making tool based on the real options method described above are as follows: 1. By applying the real options approach, the potential value of project investment benefits is quantified, the waiting value that is easily overlooked by traditional methods is accurately identified, and the limitations of traditional assessments that only focus on immediate investment returns are effectively overcome. This significantly improves the accuracy of investment decisions and makes the return assessment of different strategies such as immediate investment and delayed investment more comprehensive and objective, helping investors capture high-value investment opportunities that are missed by traditional methods.

[0014] 2. By introducing the BSM real options model, this paper incorporates the option value of delayed investment into the evaluation system, which can accurately quantify the flexibility value of investors' independent choice of investment timing. This makes the return evaluation of different strategies such as immediate investment and delayed investment more comprehensive and objective, and helps investors identify high-value investment strategies that are easily missed by traditional methods.

[0015] 3. The calculation process of investment benefits and cash flow is automated, replacing the traditional parameter selection method that relies on human experience. At the same time, it supports real-time adjustment of decision parameters such as investment principal and capacity allocation ratio and rapid re-optimization. While improving the accuracy of decision parameters, it significantly optimizes calculation efficiency and greatly reduces the time cost of manual operation, making investment calculation in complex scenarios more efficient and convenient.

[0016] 4. It can simultaneously calculate and compare investment returns under multiple market and operational scenarios, breaking the limitations of traditional single-scenario assessment. It helps users to more comprehensively predict investment risks under different conditions, further enhancing risk management capabilities. It allows investors to make rational decisions based on return and risk data from multiple scenarios, effectively reducing investment uncertainty.

[0017] 5. By using software to carry out the entire investment decision-making process, compared with traditional Excel spreadsheets, this invention can display core information such as changes in returns and net present value trends of different investment strategies in an intuitive form such as graphs and curves, which greatly improves user-friendliness, simplifies the operation process, and allows non-professionals to understand the project return logic more clearly and quickly, reducing the cognitive cost of decision-making.

[0018] The technical solution of the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. Attached Figure Description

[0019] Figure 1 The flowchart illustrates an auxiliary investment decision-making tool for energy storage projects based on real options, as provided by this invention. Detailed Implementation

[0020] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the embodiments of the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without creative effort are within the scope of protection of this application. Examples of the embodiments are shown in the accompanying drawings, wherein the same or similar reference numerals denote the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar functions throughout.

[0021] It should be noted that the terms "comprising" and "having," and any variations thereof, are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, such as a process, method, system, product, or server that includes a series of steps or units, not necessarily limited to those steps or units explicitly listed, but may include other steps or units not explicitly listed or inherent to such process, method, product, or device.

[0022] The embodiments of the present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0023] In existing technologies, real options applications generally have idealized scenarios, insufficient consideration of actual factors such as market frictions, incomplete coverage of influencing factors such as revenue sources and financing strategies, partial reliance on historical data leading to poor generalization ability, and application scenarios are mostly limited to the power generation side, making it difficult to fully adapt to the complex characteristics and actual investment needs of energy storage projects.

[0024] Based on the above analysis, this invention is designed. (See appendix.) Figure 1 A tool for assisting investment decisions in energy storage projects based on real options methodology includes the following steps: S1. Based on the evaluation needs of independent energy storage project investment and construction, a multi-dimensional investment and construction benefit evaluation index system covering construction foundation, operation core and financial constraints is constructed and preset or supports user input index values ​​to obtain complete project evaluation index parameters. In the independent energy storage investment and construction benefit evaluation index system in step S1, the basic construction indicators include: the construction capacity of the energy storage project. Energy storage facility charge / discharge rate Unit capacity battery investment cost Construction period time ; Key operational metrics include: peak electricity price Off-peak electricity price Frequency modulation performance indicators Frequency modulation times Frequency modulation settlement price Capacity rental price System annual operating days Daily charge / discharge cycles System charge and discharge efficiency Depth of charge and discharge Annual capacity decay coefficient of energy storage system Unit capacity operation and maintenance costs Operating cycle Depreciation period of fixed assets Fixed asset residual value rate Annual insurance premium rate ; Financial constraints include: Value Added Tax (VAT) rate Urban maintenance and construction tax rate Education surcharge rate Local education surcharge Income tax rate Discount rate .

[0025] By constructing a multi-dimensional investment and construction benefit evaluation index system covering the foundation of construction, the core of operation, and financial constraints, it not only comprehensively covers the key elements of the entire process of independent energy storage projects from construction to operation and then to finance, but also takes into account both generality and personalized needs by pre-setting index values ​​and supporting user input. The resulting complete project evaluation index parameters effectively avoid evaluation distortion caused by missing indicators or parameter deviations.

[0026] S2. Based on the project evaluation index parameters in step S1, by taking the investor's own needs as decision variables and existing conditions as constraints, the dynamic model of energy storage system performance degradation and the cash flow discount model are integrated to obtain a mixed integer linear programming optimization model that can quantify project income and expenditure. The decision variables for step S2 include: investment principal. Loan amount Loan interest rate Loan term Expected payback period Frequency modulation capacity ratio and capacity occupancy ratio .

[0027] Step S2's project revenue and expenditure includes revenue items and expenditure items, where the revenue items include annual electricity market sales revenue. Annual revenue from FM ancillary services and annual revenue from capacity leasing The calculation formulas are as follows: ; ; ; in, , For the first Annual energy storage system capacity retention rate, and ; Expenses include annual interest payments. Annual principal repayment Operating costs ,VAT Surcharge Replacement cost and income tax The calculation formulas are as follows: ; ; ; ; ; ; ; in, This is the method of loan repayment, and For equal principal and interest repayment, Repayment is made in equal principal installments; For the replacement behavior to occur, No replacement occurred; and These are output tax and input tax, respectively, and the calculation formulas are as follows: ; ; The depreciation value for the current period is calculated using the following formula: .

[0028] The expenditure items in the mixed-integer linear programming optimization model in step S2 include linear constraints and nonlinear constraints. The commercial solver Cplex / Gurobi is used to solve the linear constraints, and the Big M method is applied to transform the nonlinear constraints into linear constraints. The commercial solver is then used to solve the transformed linear constraints. The implementation steps of the Big M method include: 1) Determine the variables to be bound, such as continuous variables. With binary variables And clearly define the corresponding relationship, when hour, ,when hour, ; 2) Determine a sufficiently large constant. and sufficiently small constants ; 3) Add constraints That is, when When the constraint is simplified to ,match The scene; when When the constraints are simplified to ,because Small enough, then No practical restrictions; 4) Add constraints That is, when When the constraint is simplified to ,because Large enough, for No practical restrictions; when When the constraints are simplified to ,match The scene; 5) Through constraints, according to The value of is determined The nonlinear logic of the values ​​is transformed into linear constraints, which can be recognized and solved by the commercial solver Cplex / Gurobi.

[0029] For income tax The formulas for the two newly added constraints are as follows: ; ; Transform into: ; in, Taxable income ≥ 0; Taxable income < 0; For value-added tax The formulas for the two newly added constraints are as follows: ; ; Transform into: ; in, Value-added tax is payable. To avoid paying value-added tax.

[0030] Combined with linear transformation and Present value of annual net cash inflows of the project The calculation formula is: ; Furthermore, based on the discounted cash flow, an objective function is set to maximize the present value of the expected payback period. The calculation formula is as follows: ; in, For the first The present value of annual net cash flow is summed to obtain the total present value of all net cash flows within the expected payback period.

[0031] The above steps transform investors' own needs into decision variables and existing conditions into constraints, ensuring the model closely aligns with the project's actual needs and limitations. Furthermore, the integration of a dynamic model of energy storage system performance degradation makes the quantitative calculation of project revenue and expenditure more consistent with the actual operational patterns of energy storage facilities. Simultaneously, by constructing a mixed-integer linear programming optimization model, the model comprehensively covers the entire process from revenue to expenditure, and utilizes the Big M method to transform nonlinear constraints into linear constraints, adapting to efficient solutions from commercial solvers. Finally, by combining discount logic to set an objective function that maximizes the present value of expected payback period returns, the model ensures both comprehensiveness and accuracy in project evaluation, while also enhancing its operability and practical guidance for decision-making. This provides a scientific and quantitative core foundation for subsequent investment strategy evaluation steps.

[0032] S3. Based on the project cash flow data of the mixed integer linear programming optimization model in step S2, calculate the project net present value and the option value of deferred investment through the BSM real option model and sum them to obtain the extended net present value of the project for the corresponding immediate investment strategy and the deferred investment strategy. S31. Present value of annual net cash inflows of the project based on the project evaluation index parameters in step S1 and the cash flow model in step S2. and present value of investment costs Input into the BSM real options model; S32. Calculate the option value of the deferred investment using the BSM formula from step S31. The calculation formula is: ; in, To delay the investment period; The risk-free rate; considering the net present value over the period. The calculation formula is: , The present value of the project's net cash inflows over the consideration period, discounted at the risk-free rate, is calculated using the following formula: ; The present value of the project investment cost is calculated using the following formula: ; and The variables representing the cumulative distribution function under the standard normal distribution are respectively less than and The probability, and , ; S33. Project net present value based on step S32 Set the judgment criteria, specifically: if the project's net present value... If the project's net present value is [not specified], then investment will be made; if the project's net present value [not specified If the delay duration is reached, the calculation will return to step 2 until the preset maximum delay duration is reached. S34. Calculate the net present value of the project from step S32. With option value The summation is used to obtain the project value under different investment strategies. The calculation formula is as follows: ; in, Extended net present value (NPV) is used to measure the returns of different investment strategies for projects.

[0033] By leveraging the BSM real options model, this approach calculates the project's net present value (NPV) to measure the underlying return and quantifies the value of deferred investment options, which is often overlooked in traditional valuation methods. The sum of these two values ​​yields the extended NPV corresponding to immediate and deferred investment strategies, thus overcoming the shortcomings of traditional NPV methods in ignoring investment flexibility. Furthermore, it establishes investment criteria based on NPV, allowing for dynamic adjustment of the deferral period and iterative verification. This ensures that investment timing aligns more closely with the project's actual return logic, effectively enhancing the scientific rigor and flexibility of investment decisions.

[0034] S4. Based on the project extended net present value of the corresponding immediate investment strategy and delayed investment strategy in step 3, the optimal independent energy storage project investment decision is obtained by comparing the returns and investment parameters of the two investment strategies. The investment decision for independent energy storage projects in step S4 includes: investment timing, construction capacity, financing structure, capacity allocation ratio, and the corresponding project net present value extended net present value.

[0035] An embodiment based on the above steps is used to illustrate the practical application process of the electrochemical energy storage power station investment decision-making method of the present invention, taking an investor's energy storage power station investment scenario as an example for detailed explanation: An investor has an initial capital of 100 million yuan and expects to borrow no more than 100 million yuan. They plan to use this capital to invest in an electrochemical energy storage power station, hoping to maximize returns within 10 years. Market research has been conducted, and the project's various indicators and parameters are shown in Table 1. Table 1 Basic Parameters of Project Cases

[0036] Because the prices of energy storage battery raw materials are highly time-sensitive, historical data can be used to fit the price change patterns over time, providing accurate unit capacity battery investment costs for cost accounting at different investment periods and ensuring the accuracy of project cash flow calculations.

[0037] Using Bloomberg data from 2013 to 2024 as an example, we constructed a price change curve for energy storage batteries and fitted it to the raw material prices for different periods. The fitting formula is as follows: ; in, The unit capacity battery investment cost for energy storage projects constructed in that year; The year of investment; Although the prices of raw materials in the domestic market differ from the fitted curve, the relative relationship of raw material prices in different periods can be calculated based on the changing patterns of the curve.

[0038] Based on the above information and referring to the market fluctuation characteristics of similar projects in the energy storage industry, combined with the attributes of energy storage projects such as "rapid technological iteration, large fluctuations in raw material prices, and strong policy dependence", and taking into account industry practices, historical data and expert experience, the project asset value volatility is set at 20%, and the risk-free rate of return is set at 2.19% with reference to the government bond yield. The frequency regulation reserved capacity and the maximum leased capacity are respectively limited to no more than 20% and 50%.

[0039] In the case of immediate investment, that is The calculation of the present value of the income over the next 10 years requires substituting into the formula for maximizing the present value of income over the expected payback period: 100 million yuan; in, It is the present value of the income; The net present value formula is: 100 million yuan; You can invest immediately.

[0040] The following settings assume a delayed investment market of 1, 2, and 3 years respectively. The timeframe needs to be updated first using a fitted formula. (Battery price for the delayed year), then recalculate. ,each year By combining the delayed annual net cash inflows, the discounted value of income and net present value are ultimately derived. When the investment period is delayed by one year, the investment year increases by 1. Substituting these values ​​into the fitting formula, the unit capacity battery investment cost updated according to the fitted curve is obtained. Substitute Calculations yielded And calculate the delayed annual net cash inflow. The discounted value of the delayed revenue is: ; Reflected in the present value ; The corresponding present value of the revenue delayed by 1 year is 312.01 million yuan, the present value of the revenue delayed by 2 years is 300.32 million yuan, and the present value of the revenue delayed by 3 years is 283.25 million yuan. The formula for the delayed net present value is: ; The corresponding net present value (NPV) with a 1-year delay is RMB 214.16 million, with a 2-year delay it is RMB 204.56 million, and with a 3-year delay it is RMB 189.54 million.

[0041] All four decision scenarios require investors to take out loans and allocate 20% of the facility capacity for frequency regulation. In contrast, when the project has 1 charge / discharge cycle per day and participates in frequency regulation 100 times, the annual electricity market sales revenue is re-evaluated. Formula and FM ancillary service annual revenue Formula, recalculate Substitute , Then substitute That is, the net present value of the investment and the investment delayed by 1-3 years are -3.87 million yuan, -2.2 million yuan, -2.69 million yuan, and -5.3 million yuan respectively. Then, using the formula... The resulting extended net present values ​​were -3.87 million, 5.38 million, 8.41 million, and 7.14 million yuan, respectively. At this point, delaying the investment by two years would be a relatively reasonable choice.

[0042] In summary, by constructing a multi-dimensional evaluation index system, integrating the dynamic logic of energy storage system performance degradation, optimizing the mixed-integer linear programming model, and combining it with BSM real option analysis, this approach comprehensively addresses issues in traditional energy storage project investment evaluation, such as calculation distortion caused by static assumptions, neglect of investment flexibility and delayed investment value, reliance on experience for decision-making under multivariate constraints, incomplete coverage of revenue sources and financing strategies, insufficient risk quantification, and fragmented processes. It achieves objectivity in project revenue and expenditure calculation, comprehensiveness in investment strategy evaluation, and accuracy in decision parameters, significantly improving the scientific nature, flexibility, and operability of independent energy storage project investment decisions. It provides investors with a closed-loop service from data support to optimal strategy output, effectively reducing investment risk and decision-making bias, and accurately adapting to the characteristics and actual investment needs of electrochemical energy storage projects, such as high unit investment and complex revenue sources.

[0043] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit them. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications or equivalent substitutions can still be made to the technical solutions of the present invention, and these modifications or equivalent substitutions cannot cause the modified technical solutions to deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the present invention.

Claims

1. A tool for assisting investment decisions in energy storage projects based on real options, characterized in that: Includes the following steps: S1. Based on the evaluation needs of independent energy storage project investment and construction, a multi-dimensional investment and construction benefit evaluation index system covering construction foundation, operation core and financial constraints is constructed and preset or supports user input index values ​​to obtain complete project evaluation index parameters. S2. Based on the project evaluation index parameters in step S1, by taking the investor's own needs as decision variables and existing conditions as constraints, the dynamic model of energy storage system performance degradation and the cash flow discount model are integrated to obtain a mixed integer linear programming optimization model that can quantify project income and expenditure. S3. Based on the project cash flow data of the mixed integer linear programming optimization model in step S2, calculate the project net present value and the option value of deferred investment through the BSM real option model and sum them to obtain the extended net present value of the project for the corresponding immediate investment strategy and the deferred investment strategy. S4. Based on the project extended net present value of the corresponding immediate investment strategy and delayed investment strategy in step 3, the optimal independent energy storage project investment decision is obtained by comparing the returns and investment parameters of the two investment strategies.

2. The energy storage project auxiliary investment decision-making tool based on real options method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In the independent energy storage investment and construction benefit evaluation index system in step S1, the basic construction indicators include: the construction capacity of the energy storage project. Energy storage facility charge / discharge rate Unit capacity battery investment cost Construction period time ; Key operational metrics include: peak electricity price Off-peak electricity price Frequency modulation performance indicators Frequency modulation times Frequency modulation settlement price Capacity rental price System annual operating days Daily charge / discharge cycles System charge and discharge efficiency Depth of charge and discharge Annual capacity decay coefficient of energy storage system Unit capacity operation and maintenance costs Operating cycle Depreciation period of fixed assets Fixed asset residual value rate Annual insurance premium rate ; Financial constraints include: Value Added Tax (VAT) rate Urban maintenance and construction tax rate Education surcharge rate Local education surcharge Income tax rate Discount rate .

3. The energy storage project auxiliary investment decision-making tool based on real options method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The decision variables for step S2 include: investment principal. Loan amount Loan interest rate Loan term Expected payback period Frequency modulation capacity ratio and capacity occupancy ratio .

4. The energy storage project auxiliary investment decision-making tool based on the real options method according to claim 3, characterized in that: Step S2's project revenue and expenditure includes revenue items and expenditure items, where the revenue items include annual electricity market sales revenue. Annual revenue from FM ancillary services and annual revenue from capacity leasing The calculation formulas are as follows: ； ； ； in, , For the first Annual energy storage system capacity retention rate, and ; Expenses include annual interest payments. Annual principal repayment Operating costs ,VAT Surcharge Replacement cost and income tax The calculation formulas are as follows: ； ； ； ； ； ； ； in, This is the method of loan repayment, and For equal principal and interest repayment, Repayment is made in equal principal installments; For the replacement behavior to occur, No replacement occurred; and These are output tax and input tax, respectively, and the calculation formulas are as follows: ； ； The depreciation value for the current period is calculated using the following formula: 。 5. The energy storage project auxiliary investment decision-making tool based on the real options method according to claim 4, characterized in that: The expenditure items in the mixed-integer linear programming optimization model in step S2 include linear constraints and nonlinear constraints. A commercial solver is used to solve the linear constraints, and the Big M method is applied to transform the nonlinear constraints into linear constraints. The commercial solver is then used to solve the transformed linear constraints.

6. The energy storage project auxiliary investment decision-making tool based on real options method according to claim 5, characterized in that: Value Added Tax and income tax By performing linear transformations sequentially, the corresponding linear constraints are obtained. and Then the present value of the project's annual net cash inflows The calculation formula is: ； Furthermore, based on the discounted cash flow, an objective function is set to maximize the present value of the expected payback period. The calculation formula is as follows: ； in, For the first The present value of annual net cash flow is summed to obtain the total present value of all net cash flows within the expected payback period.

7. The energy storage project auxiliary investment decision-making tool based on the real options method according to claim 6, characterized in that: The specific steps of step S3 are as follows: S31. Present value of annual net cash inflows of the project based on the project evaluation index parameters in step S1 and the cash flow model in step S2. and present value of investment costs Input into the BSM real options model; S32. Calculate the option value of the deferred investment using the BSM formula from step S31. The calculation formula is: ； in, To delay the investment period; The risk-free rate; considering the net present value over the period. The calculation formula is: , The present value of the project's net cash inflows over the consideration period, discounted at the risk-free rate, is calculated using the following formula: ； The present value of the project investment cost is calculated using the following formula: ； and The variables representing the cumulative distribution function under the standard normal distribution are less than and The probability, and , ; S33. Project net present value based on step S32 Set the judgment criteria, specifically: if the project's net present value... If the project's net present value is [not specified], then investment will be made; if the project's net present value [not specified If the delay duration is reached, the calculation will return to step 2 until the preset maximum delay duration is reached. S34. Calculate the net present value of the project from step S32. With option value The summation is used to obtain the project value under different investment strategies. The calculation formula is as follows: ； in, Extended net present value (NPV) is used to measure the returns of different investment strategies.

8. The energy storage project auxiliary investment decision-making tool based on the real options method according to claim 7, characterized in that: The investment decision for independent energy storage projects in step S4 includes: investment timing, construction capacity, financing structure, capacity allocation ratio, and the corresponding project net present value extended net present value.

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