Method and system for estimating daily power consumption of air conditioner load of residential user

Abstract

The invention relates to a method and a system for estimating daily electricity consumption of an air-conditioning load of a residential user. The method comprises the following steps: collecting meteorological data and daily electricity consumption of corresponding dates of the residential user participating in demand response and containing the air-conditioning load; when each monthly meteorological data meets a constraint condition, determining daily baseline electric quantity generation typical month data by adopting an average minimum value method for each daily electric quantity; according to the daily baseline electric quantity generation typical month data, performing daily baseline electric quantity estimation by using a median method; and subtracting the daily baseline electric quantity from the daily electricity consumption of the month using the air conditioner load to realize the daily electricity consumption estimation of the air conditioner load. According to the technology, by estimating the electricity consumption generated by the air conditioner load of the resident user, the difficulty that the seasonal flexible load of the resident user cannot be extracted due to the fact that electricity consumption of other household appliances of the resident user and electricity consumption of the air conditioner cannot be distinguished due to the metering of an electric energy meter is solved. Therefore, the identification capability of the power grid on the flexible load represented by the air-conditioning load of the resident user is improved, and a foundation is laid for cooperative regulation and control of a power system.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of power system load statistics, specifically to a method and system for estimating the daily electricity consumption of residential users' air conditioning load. It is particularly suitable for electricity metering that can only obtain electricity data for power consumption statistics and estimation. Background Technology

[0002] In recent years, with the overall trend of global warming, summer temperatures in my country have shown a significant upward trend, with the frequency and duration of extreme high-temperature events increasing and their scope expanding. Furthermore, with economic and technological development and the improvement of people's living standards, people's demands for their living environment have gradually increased, and air conditioning has gradually become a necessity in public and private places such as shopping malls, hospitals, factories, schools, and homes. As summer ambient temperatures rise year by year, my country's air conditioning load has also increased annually. The summer power load in 2024 and 2025 both reached record highs, with air conditioning load contributing significantly and becoming a major driver of summer load peaks. Therefore, accurately estimating the electricity consumption of residential users' air conditioning load is crucial for ensuring the balance of the power system. Scientific and reasonable estimation results will effectively support the coordinated regulation of air conditioning load and are one of the urgent problems to be solved in building a new type of power system. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The purpose of this invention is to provide a method and system for estimating the daily electricity consumption of air conditioning load for residential users, so as to solve the problems existing in related technologies.

[0004] In one aspect, this disclosure provides a method for estimating the daily electricity consumption of residential users' air conditioning load, including: collecting meteorological data and daily electricity consumption of residential users with air conditioning load participating in demand response for the corresponding dates;

[0005] When all meteorological data for each month meet the constraints, the daily electricity consumption for each month is determined using the minimum average value method to determine the typical monthly data for daily baseline electricity consumption.

[0006] Based on typical monthly data of daily baseline electricity generation, daily baseline electricity generation is estimated using the median method.

[0007] The daily electricity consumption of air conditioning load is estimated by subtracting the daily baseline electricity consumption from the daily electricity consumption of the month in which the air conditioning load is used.

[0008] Optionally, the collection of meteorological data and daily electricity consumption for residential users participating in demand response, including those with air conditioning load, for the corresponding dates includes:

[0009] The daily electricity consumption is calculated by summing the peak, off-peak, and flat electricity consumption data.

[0010] Daily meteorological data includes daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily average temperature, daily humidity, and daily weather type;

[0011] If data loss occurs due to reasons such as replacement of electricity meters, data is filled in by interpolation. In addition, data with negative electricity values ​​or exceeding the physical maximum value are removed, that is, the daily electricity data is preprocessed.

[0012] Optionally, when all meteorological data for each month meet the constraints, the daily baseline electricity consumption for each month is determined using the minimum average method. Typical monthly data for electricity consumption include:

[0013] Let the dataset of daily electricity consumption in the i-th month be... Daily average temperature dataset Daily average humidity dataset , where n is the number of days in the i-th month;

[0014] When satisfied ;

[0015] as well as hour,

[0016] in, and These are the minimum and maximum values ​​of the human body's suitable temperature, respectively. and These are the minimum and maximum values ​​of humidity suitable for the human body, respectively.

[0017] Calculate the average daily electricity consumption in the i-th month.

[0018] ;

[0019] Secondly, the minimum daily average electricity consumption from January to December is calculated to determine the typical monthly data for daily baseline electricity consumption.

[0020] Optionally, based on typical monthly data of daily baseline electricity consumption, the daily baseline electricity consumption can be estimated using the median method, including:

[0021] Typical monthly data for daily baseline electricity consumption The median is used to obtain the daily baseline electricity level.

[0022] ;

[0023] Where k represents the daily electricity consumption data of residential users in the Kth month.

[0024] Optionally, the daily electricity consumption of air conditioning load is estimated by subtracting the daily baseline electricity consumption from the daily electricity consumption of the month in which the air conditioning load is used.

[0025] ;

[0026] in, This represents the daily electricity consumption of air conditioning on day j of month i. This represents the daily electricity consumption on day j of month i, where month i is the month in which air conditioning load is used.

[0027] Secondly, a system for estimating the daily electricity consumption of air conditioning load for residential users is provided, including:

[0028] The collection module is used to collect meteorological data and daily electricity consumption for residential users with air conditioning loads participating in demand response on the corresponding dates.

[0029] The first determination module is used to determine the daily baseline electricity consumption for typical months by using the minimum average value method when all meteorological data for each month meet the constraints.

[0030] The second determination module is used to estimate the daily baseline electricity consumption based on typical monthly data of daily baseline electricity consumption using the median method.

[0031] The air conditioning load calculation module is used to estimate the daily electricity consumption of air conditioning load by subtracting the daily baseline electricity consumption from the daily electricity consumption of the month in which the air conditioning load is used.

[0032] The technical solutions provided by the embodiments of this disclosure may include the following beneficial effects:

[0033] Collect meteorological data and daily electricity consumption for residential users with air conditioning loads participating in demand response on the corresponding dates: The data collected in this step provides a basic reference, enabling us to understand changes in residents' electricity consumption habits under different meteorological conditions.

[0034] When all meteorological data for each month meet the constraints, the daily electricity consumption for each month is determined using the minimum average value method to determine the typical monthly data for daily baseline electricity consumption. This method ensures that the data for the selected typical months reflects the usual electricity consumption patterns of residents under different weather conditions, and eliminates the influence of abnormal weather.

[0035] Based on typical monthly data of daily baseline electricity generation, the median method is used to estimate daily baseline electricity generation. The median method is more stable than the mean method and can better adapt to extreme values ​​in the data, thereby improving the accuracy of baseline electricity generation estimation.

[0036] The daily electricity consumption of air conditioning load is estimated by subtracting the daily baseline electricity consumption from the daily electricity consumption of the month in which air conditioning load is used. This method determines the specific electricity consumption of air conditioning load by comparing the actual electricity consumption with the electricity consumption level under non-air conditioning load conditions.

[0037] This technology solves the problem of power regulation difficulties caused by the inability to accurately distinguish between residential electricity consumption and air conditioning electricity consumption by accurately estimating the additional electricity consumption caused by air conditioning load. This improves grid operating efficiency and ensures stable power supply during peak hours. Attached Figure Description

[0038] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating a method for estimating the daily electricity consumption of air conditioning load for residential users, according to an exemplary embodiment of this disclosure. Detailed Implementation

[0039] The specific embodiments of this disclosure will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are for illustration and explanation only and are not intended to limit this disclosure.

[0040] In this disclosure, unless otherwise stated, directional terms such as "upper," "lower," "front," "rear," "left," and "right" are used for ease of description based on the drawing orientations of the corresponding figures, while "inner" and "outer" are defined based on the contours of the corresponding components themselves. Terms such as "first" and "second" used in this disclosure are used to distinguish one element from another and do not have sequential or importance implications. Furthermore, when the following description refers to the figures, unless otherwise indicated, the same numbers in different figures represent the same or similar elements.

[0041] Air conditioning load exhibits temporal, regional, and environmental sensitivity. It shows significant diurnal fluctuations, typically lower at night and higher during the day, especially in the afternoon, directly related to user behavior patterns. Load in urban centers is generally higher than in suburbs, primarily due to building density, population distribution, and energy usage habits. Changes in natural conditions such as temperature, humidity, and sunshine can cause substantial fluctuations in air conditioning load; high summer temperatures or severe winter cold weather lead to a surge in cooling / heating demand. Furthermore, regional climate differences result in significant geographical variations in air conditioning load. For example, in the humid and hot regions of South my country and the Yangtze River basin, air conditioning operates for longer periods daily, while in the dry and hot regions of Northwest and North China, air conditioning usage is concentrated in the afternoon. These different climatic characteristics lead to significant regional differences in the clustered air conditioning load. Individual air conditioning loads also exhibit demand variability. Differences in age, income, and temperature comfort requirements among individual air conditioning users result in significant variations in the frequency and duration of individual air conditioning usage.

[0042] To better regulate air conditioning load and ensure power balance in the power system, air conditioning loads participating in demand response store energy (cold storage in summer and heat storage in winter) during off-peak hours and peak power generation periods (especially peak periods for renewable energy such as photovoltaic power generation). During peak load periods, the power system achieves peak shaving and valley filling by adjusting the temperature of air conditioning loads participating in demand response or shutting down the loads. Therefore, estimating the power consumption of air conditioning loads participating in demand response can provide effective support for regional load regulation, provide a basis for formulating air conditioning load regulation schemes, and provide underlying support for building a highly resilient power grid.

[0043] Please see Figure 1 In one aspect, this disclosure provides a method for estimating the daily electricity consumption of residential users' air conditioning load, including: collecting meteorological data and daily electricity consumption of residential users with air conditioning load participating in demand response for the corresponding dates;

[0044] When all meteorological data for each month meet the constraints, the daily electricity consumption for each month is determined using the minimum average value method to determine the typical monthly data for daily baseline electricity consumption.

[0045] Based on typical monthly data of daily baseline electricity generation, daily baseline electricity generation is estimated using the median method.

[0046] The daily electricity consumption of air conditioning load is estimated by subtracting the daily baseline electricity consumption from the daily electricity consumption of the month in which the air conditioning load is used.

[0047] In one implementation, collecting meteorological data and daily electricity consumption for residential users with air conditioning loads participating in demand response on the corresponding dates includes:

[0048] The daily electricity consumption is calculated by summing the peak, off-peak, and flat electricity consumption data.

[0049] Daily meteorological data includes daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily average temperature, daily humidity, and daily weather type;

[0050] If data loss occurs due to reasons such as replacement of electricity meters, data is filled in by interpolation. In addition, data with negative electricity values ​​or exceeding the physical maximum value are removed, that is, the daily electricity data is preprocessed.

[0051] In one implementation, when all meteorological data for each month meet the constraints, the daily electricity consumption for each month is determined using the minimum average method to determine the typical monthly data for daily baseline electricity consumption, including:

[0052] Let the dataset of daily electricity consumption in the i-th month be... Daily average temperature dataset Daily average humidity dataset , where n is the number of days in the i-th month;

[0053] When satisfied ;

[0054] as well as hour,

[0055] in, and These are the minimum and maximum values ​​of the human body's suitable temperature, respectively. and These are the minimum and maximum values ​​of humidity suitable for the human body, respectively.

[0056] Calculate the average daily electricity consumption in the i-th month.

[0057] ;

[0058] Secondly, the minimum daily average electricity consumption from January to December is calculated to determine the typical monthly data for daily baseline electricity consumption.

[0059] Optionally, based on typical monthly data of daily baseline electricity consumption, the daily baseline electricity consumption can be estimated using the median method, including:

[0060] Typical monthly data for daily baseline electricity consumption The median is used to obtain the daily baseline electricity level.

[0061] ;

[0062] Where k represents the daily electricity consumption data of residential users in the Kth month.

[0063] In one embodiment, estimating the daily electricity consumption of air conditioning load by subtracting the daily baseline electricity consumption from the daily electricity consumption of the month in which the air conditioning load is used includes:

[0064] ;

[0065] in, This represents the daily electricity consumption of air conditioning on day j of month i. This represents the daily electricity consumption on day j of month i, where month i is the month in which air conditioning load is used.

[0066] Secondly, a system for estimating the daily electricity consumption of air conditioning load for residential users is provided, including:

[0067] The collection module is used to collect meteorological data and daily electricity consumption for residential users with air conditioning loads participating in demand response on the corresponding dates.

[0068] The first determination module is used to determine the daily baseline electricity consumption for typical months by using the minimum average value method when all meteorological data for each month meet the constraints.

[0069] The second determination module is used to estimate the daily baseline electricity consumption based on typical monthly data of daily baseline electricity consumption using the median method.

[0070] The air conditioning load calculation module is used to estimate the daily electricity consumption of air conditioning load by subtracting the daily baseline electricity consumption from the daily electricity consumption of the month in which the air conditioning load is used.

[0071] This invention has been described through embodiments. Those skilled in the art will understand that various changes or equivalent substitutions can be made to these features and embodiments without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Furthermore, under the teachings of this invention, these features and embodiments can be modified to adapt to specific situations and materials without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Therefore, this invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed herein, and all embodiments falling within the scope of the claims of this application are within the protection scope of this invention.

Claims

1. A method for estimating the daily electricity consumption of air conditioning load for residential users, characterized in that, include: Collect meteorological data and daily electricity consumption for the dates corresponding to residential users with air conditioning loads participating in demand response; When all meteorological data for each month meet the constraints, the daily electricity consumption for each month is determined using the minimum average value method to determine the typical monthly data for daily baseline electricity consumption. Based on typical monthly data of daily baseline electricity generation, daily baseline electricity generation is estimated using the median method. The daily electricity consumption of air conditioning load is estimated by subtracting the daily baseline electricity consumption from the daily electricity consumption of the month in which the air conditioning load is used.

2. The method for estimating daily electricity consumption of residential users' air conditioning load according to claim 1, characterized in that, The collection of meteorological data and daily electricity consumption for residential users participating in demand response, including those with air conditioning load, includes: The daily electricity consumption is calculated by summing the peak, off-peak, and flat electricity consumption data. Daily meteorological data includes daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily average temperature, daily humidity, and daily weather type; If data loss occurs due to reasons such as replacement of electricity meters, data is filled in by interpolation. In addition, data with negative electricity values ​​or exceeding the physical maximum value are removed, that is, the daily electricity data is preprocessed.

3. The method for estimating daily electricity consumption of residential users' air conditioning load according to claim 2, characterized in that, When all meteorological data for each month meet the constraints, the daily baseline electricity consumption for each month is determined using the minimum average method. Typical monthly data for this include: Let the dataset of daily electricity consumption in the i-th month be... Daily average temperature dataset Daily average humidity dataset , where n is the number of days in the i-th month; When satisfied ; as well as hour, in, and These are the minimum and maximum values ​​of the human body's suitable temperature, respectively. and These are the minimum and maximum values ​​of humidity suitable for the human body, respectively. Calculate the average daily electricity consumption in the i-th month. : ； Secondly, the minimum daily average electricity consumption from January to December is calculated to determine the typical monthly data for daily baseline electricity consumption.

4. The method for estimating daily electricity consumption of residential users' air conditioning load according to claim 3, characterized in that, Based on typical monthly data of daily baseline electricity consumption, the estimation of daily baseline electricity consumption using the median method includes: Typical monthly data for daily baseline electricity consumption The median is used to obtain the daily baseline electricity level. : ； Where k represents the daily electricity consumption data of residential users in the Kth month.

5. The method for estimating daily electricity consumption of residential users' air conditioning load according to claim 4, characterized in that, The estimation of daily electricity consumption for air conditioning load is achieved by subtracting the daily baseline electricity consumption from the daily electricity consumption of the month in which air conditioning load is used. ； in, This represents the daily electricity consumption of air conditioning on day j of month i. This represents the daily electricity consumption on day j of month i, where month i is the month in which air conditioning load is used.

6. A system for estimating daily electricity consumption of air conditioning load for residential users, characterized in that, include: The collection module is used to collect meteorological data and daily electricity consumption for residential users with air conditioning loads participating in demand response on the corresponding dates. The first determination module is used to determine the daily baseline electricity consumption for typical months by using the minimum average value method when all meteorological data for each month meet the constraints. The second determination module is used to estimate the daily baseline electricity consumption based on typical monthly data of daily baseline electricity consumption using the median method. The air conditioning load calculation module is used to subtract the daily baseline electricity consumption from the daily electricity consumption of the month in which the air conditioning load is used, so as to estimate the daily electricity consumption of the air conditioning load.

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