Cost calculation and benefit evaluation method for new energy power generation heat supply project

Abstract

The invention discloses a cost and benefit evaluation method for a new energy power generation and heat supply project, and the method comprises the following steps: obtaining the cost of the new energy power generation and heat supply project, and calculating the comprehensive cost of the project; configuration parameters, required electricity consumption and subsidy income of the project main body are acquired, and the total income of the project is measured and calculated; carrying out financing scheme design in combination with the comprehensive cost of the project and the total income of the project; a plurality of yield indicators are obtained based on the financing scheme, and the project is evaluated and optimized according to the plurality of yield indicators. According to the method, the configuration parameters, the financing scheme, the cost income and dynamic optimization are organically combined, comprehensive, accurate and iteratively optimized evaluation of the new energy power generation heat supply project is realized, economic benefit maximization is realized, the feasibility of the project scheme and the scientificity of investment decision are remarkably improved, and the investment risk is effectively reduced.

Description

A method for cost calculation and benefit evaluation of new energy power generation and heating projects Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of new energy technology, specifically to a method for cost calculation and benefit evaluation of new energy power generation and heating projects. Background Technology

[0002] Under the dual-carbon goals, heating methods are gradually shifting from traditional coal and natural gas heating to green new energy heating. With the large-scale development of new energy technologies, the cost of new energy heating continues to decrease, and its economic advantages are becoming increasingly prominent. Therefore, accurate calculation of the costs and benefits of traditional energy and new energy in the direction of heating is an important indicator for project construction, investment, evaluation, etc.

[0003] Currently, most existing technologies are applicable to the comprehensive cost calculation and benefit assessment of new energy power generation projects, but they are not applicable to the comprehensive cost calculation and benefit assessment of projects that use new energy to replace traditional heating. Specifically, projects that use new energy power generation for heating suffer from a single revenue model, calculating revenue solely by applying a fixed on-grid electricity price without considering the comprehensive settlement mechanisms in the actual electricity market environment. For example, there are multiple settlement mechanisms such as the electricity market transaction settlement rules of the province / region, the current average price fluctuations in the trading market, and the near-consumption price mechanism. This leads to a lack of comprehensive benefit assessment, making it impossible to couple the electricity market transaction model and the heating revenue model. It is also impossible to accurately quantify the comprehensive benefits of new energy projects in the electricity market for replacing traditional energy through heating, making it difficult to maximize the economic benefits of the project. Summary of the Invention

[0004] To address the shortcomings of existing technologies, this invention provides a method for cost calculation and benefit evaluation of new energy power generation and heating projects.

[0005] The present invention adopts the following technical solution.

[0006] The first aspect of this invention discloses a method for cost and benefit assessment of new energy power generation and heating projects, including:

[0007] Obtain the various costs of the new energy power generation and heating project and calculate the comprehensive cost of the project; obtain the configuration parameters of the main body of the project, the required electricity consumption and subsidy income, and calculate the total revenue of the project; design a financing plan based on the comprehensive cost of the project and the total revenue of the project; obtain multiple rate of return indicators based on the financing plan, and evaluate and optimize the project based on the multiple rate of return indicators.

[0008] Preferably, the process of obtaining various costs of the new energy power generation and heating project and calculating the comprehensive project cost includes: determining the construction investment cost based on the project plan, determining the operating cost based on the system operation and maintenance requirements, determining the financing cost based on the financing structure, and determining the taxes and fees based on tax policies; if the project needs to be connected to the grid in a local consumption mode, then determining the stable supply guarantee service fee based on policy conditions; and integrating the construction investment cost, operating cost, financing cost, taxes and fees, and stable supply guarantee service fee to obtain the comprehensive project cost.

[0009] Preferably, the step of obtaining the configuration parameters, required electricity consumption, and subsidy income of the project entity, and calculating the total project revenue, includes: obtaining the configuration parameters, required electricity consumption, and subsidy income of the project entity, and building a simulation operation model based on the project entity; inputting the configuration parameters into the simulation operation model to obtain the annual heating supply and new energy power generation; calculating the new energy heating revenue by combining the annual heating supply with a preset heating price mechanism, and calculating the new energy grid connection revenue based on the new energy power generation and required electricity consumption; and integrating the new energy heating revenue, new energy grid connection revenue, and subsidy income to calculate the total project revenue.

[0010] Preferably, the calculation of the grid-connected revenue of new energy based on the new energy power generation and the required electricity consumption includes: determining the remaining new energy power generation after meeting the required electricity consumption based on the new energy power generation; constructing a market revenue model; and simulating and predicting the remaining new energy power generation based on the market revenue model to obtain the grid-connected revenue of new energy.

[0011] Preferably, the step of simulating and predicting the remaining renewable energy generation based on the market revenue model to obtain the renewable energy grid connection revenue includes: constructing a multi-dimensional market revenue model that includes medium- and long-term transaction revenue, spot market revenue, electricity price compensation revenue, and ancillary service revenue; and simulating and predicting the remaining renewable energy generation based on the annual spot electricity price, medium- and long-term transaction electricity price, and provincial and regional electricity market settlement rules to calculate the renewable energy grid connection revenue.

[0012] Preferably, the step of designing a financing scheme by combining the project's comprehensive cost and the project's total revenue includes: calculating the project's total investment cash flow based on the project's comprehensive cost and total revenue to obtain the project's rate of return; if the project's rate of return is greater than or equal to the project's benchmark rate of return, a financing scheme will be designed.

[0013] Preferably, the process of obtaining multiple rate of return indicators based on the financing plan, and evaluating and optimizing the project based on these indicators, includes: obtaining multiple rate of return indicators by calculating the project's capital cash flow statement, investor cash flow statements, profit and profit distribution statement, financial plan cash flow statement, and balance sheet; when any rate of return indicator is less than the corresponding benchmark investment rate of return, the rate of return indicator will be adjusted through project optimization until any rate of return indicator is greater than or equal to the corresponding benchmark rate of return indicator; when all rate of return indicators are greater than or equal to the corresponding benchmark rate of return indicator, the comprehensive cost and benefits of the new energy power generation and heating project will be evaluated.

[0014] Preferably, the project optimization includes optimizing configuration parameters or financing plans, thereby adjusting the corresponding rate of return indicators through optimization of configuration parameters or financing plans.

[0015] The second aspect of the present invention discloses an electronic device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that the computer program, when loaded onto the processor, implements the aforementioned method for cost and benefit assessment of a new energy power generation and heating project.

[0016] A third aspect of the present invention discloses a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the aforementioned method for cost and benefit assessment of a new energy power generation and heating project.

[0017] The beneficial effects of this invention are that, compared with the prior art, this invention achieves a comprehensive, accurate, and iterative optimization evaluation of new energy power generation and heating projects by organically combining configuration parameters, financing schemes, cost-benefit analysis, and dynamic optimization. It also achieves precise iterative updates by optimizing projects through the rate of return indicator, significantly improving the feasibility of project schemes and the scientific nature of investment decisions, and effectively reducing investment risks.

[0018] This invention proposes a method for calculating the comprehensive cost and total revenue of renewable energy power generation and heating substitution projects. On one hand, the comprehensive cost of the project comprehensively considers multiple costs, including construction costs, operating costs, stable supply guarantee costs, financing costs, and taxes, ensuring sufficient basis for cost accounting and improving the accuracy and reliability of the rate of return indicator. On the other hand, the total revenue of the project considers renewable energy heating revenue, renewable energy grid connection revenue, and subsidy income, effectively coupling heating revenue with electricity revenue. Furthermore, the renewable energy grid connection revenue is calculated by constructing a market revenue model, systematically integrating and quantifying diverse revenue sources such as medium- and long-term transactions, spot transactions, ancillary services, and electricity price compensation. This not only overcomes the problem of a single revenue model caused by the traditional assessment using only a fixed on-grid electricity price, but also accurately depicts the true profitability of renewable energy in the electricity market environment. The invention establishes an assessment model for the comprehensive cost and total revenue of the project, providing investors with precise decision-making guidance. Attached Figure Description

[0019] Figure 1 is a flowchart of a method for cost calculation and benefit evaluation of a new energy power generation and heating project according to the present invention; Figure 2 is a structural diagram of the comprehensive cost and total revenue of the project according to the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0020] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this invention clearer, the technical solutions of this invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings of the embodiments of this invention. The embodiments described in this application are merely some embodiments of this invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the spirit of this invention, other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are all within the protection scope of this invention.

[0021] As shown in Figure 1, Embodiment 1 of the present invention discloses a method for cost and benefit assessment of a new energy power generation and heating project, including the following steps: Step 1: Obtain the various costs of the new energy power generation and heating project and calculate the comprehensive cost of the project; specifically, determine the construction investment cost based on the project plan, determine the operating cost based on the system operation and maintenance requirements, determine the financing cost based on the financing structure, and determine the taxes and fees based on tax policies; if the project needs to be connected to the grid in a nearby consumption mode, then determine the stable supply guarantee service fee based on policy conditions; integrate the construction investment cost, operating cost, financing cost, taxes and fees, and stable supply guarantee service fee to obtain the comprehensive cost of the project.

[0022] It is understandable that, as shown in Figure 1, the new energy power generation and heating projects are mostly wind power, photovoltaic, electric heating systems, energy storage systems, and trough-type concentrating solar collector systems. The project plan and configuration parameters are determined based on the project category and scale. The construction investment cost includes: engineering costs, other construction costs, contingency funds, and costs related to the project's new energy installed capacity and the cost of major equipment in the region. The operating cost needs to be considered in conjunction with relevant industry standards and equipment operation and maintenance requirements. The operating cost includes: labor wages, welfare expenses and others, daily equipment operation and maintenance costs, insurance premiums, and material costs. The stable supply guarantee service cost for the new energy power generation and heating project under the local consumption model is also considered. The power system provides stable supply services and should bear the costs of stable supply guarantee services. These costs include transmission and distribution fees, system operation fees, etc. The details of these costs should be based on relevant policy requirements. Transmission and distribution fees require multi-dimensional calculation considering capacity fees, demand fees, current electricity price standards at the voltage level, the average load factor of 110 kV and above industrial and commercial two-part tariff users in the province, and the capacity connected to the public grid. System operation fees are paid based on the amount of electricity transferred to the grid. Financing costs need to consider the capital investment ratio requirements of the project's location, bank medium- and long-term loan interest rates, repayment methods, and repayment periods. Taxes and fees include value-added tax, income tax, urban construction surcharges, and education surcharges.

[0023] Step 2: Obtain the configuration parameters, required electricity consumption, and subsidy income of the project entity, and calculate the total project revenue; Step 2.1: Obtain the configuration parameters, required electricity consumption, and subsidy income of the project entity, and build a simulation operation model based on the project entity; Step 2.2: Input the configuration parameters into the simulation operation model to obtain the annual heat supply and new energy power generation; It can be understood that the configuration parameters can be key parameters such as the annual heat load curve of the project entity, the output characteristics and capacity of new energy resources, etc. The configuration parameters can be obtained in the initial setting stage of the project plan scale. Input the configuration parameters into the simulation operation model, conduct an 8760-hour simulation throughout the year, simulate the annual operation status of the project to obtain the annual heat supply and new energy power generation, and set a reasonable heat supply price mechanism in combination with the project rate of return to calculate the revenue of new energy heat supply.

[0024] Step 2.3: Calculate the revenue from renewable energy heating by combining the annual heating supply with a preset heating price mechanism, and calculate the revenue from renewable energy grid connection based on renewable energy power generation and required electricity consumption. Specifically, calculating the revenue from renewable energy grid connection based on renewable energy power generation and required electricity consumption includes: determining the remaining renewable energy power generation after meeting the required electricity consumption; constructing a market revenue model; and simulating and predicting the remaining renewable energy power generation based on the market revenue model to obtain the revenue from renewable energy grid connection. It can be understood that constructing the market revenue model involves building a multi-dimensional market revenue model that includes medium- and long-term trading revenue, spot market revenue, electricity price compensation revenue, and ancillary service revenue. Based on the annual spot electricity price, medium- and long-term trading electricity price, and provincial electricity market settlement rules, the remaining renewable energy power generation is simulated and predicted to calculate the revenue from renewable energy grid connection.

[0025] Preferably, but not limitingly, the market revenue model may be supplemented with other revenues and settlement rules as needed to provide a more comprehensive analysis of the revenue from grid connection of new energy sources.

[0026] Step 2.4: Integrate the revenue from new energy heating, revenue from new energy grid connection, and subsidy income to calculate the total project revenue.

[0027] Step 3: Design a financing plan by combining the project's comprehensive cost and total revenue; specifically, calculate the project's full life-cycle investment cash flow based on the project's comprehensive cost and total revenue to obtain the project's rate of return, thereby quantifying the project's profitability and investment value and providing investors with accurate decision-making basis; if the project's rate of return is greater than or equal to the project's benchmark rate of return, a financing plan will be designed.

[0028] Preferably, but not restrictively, if the project's rate of return is less than the project's benchmark rate of return, then the return of the new energy power generation and heating project is deemed unsatisfactory, and this is provided for investors' reference.

[0029] Step 4: Obtain multiple rate of return (ROR) indicators based on the financing plan, and evaluate and optimize the project based on these indicators. Specifically, the financing plan obtains multiple RRO indicators by calculating the project's capital cash flow statement, investor cash flow statements, profit and profit distribution statement, financial plan cash flow statement, and balance sheet. If any RRO indicator is less than the corresponding benchmark investment RRO, the RRO indicator will be adjusted through project optimization until any RRO indicator is greater than or equal to the corresponding benchmark RRO indicator. When all RRO indicators are greater than or equal to the corresponding benchmark RRO indicator, the overall cost and benefits of the new energy power generation and heating project will be evaluated.

[0030] The project optimization includes optimizing configuration parameters or financing plans, thereby adjusting the corresponding rate of return indicators.

[0031] It is understood that the aforementioned rate of return indicators can be the project's total investment return rate, internal rate of return on equity, debt repayment ability, financial viability, etc., among which the key rate of return indicators are the internal rate of return on total investment and the internal rate of return on equity.

[0032] In a specific embodiment, if the internal rate of return on equity is greater than or equal to the preset benchmark internal rate of return on equity, the higher the internal rate of return on equity, the better the project benefits; if the internal rate of return on equity is less than the project benchmark internal rate of return on equity, it is necessary to optimize the capacity configuration through simulation models or adjust the financing plan by applying for policy subsidies, etc., until the internal rate of return on equity is greater than or equal to the preset benchmark internal rate of return on equity.

[0033] Preferably, but not limitingly, the benchmark rate of return can be the required rate of return set by the investor, or the industry benchmark rate of return.

[0034] It is understood that the present invention conducts a comprehensive cost and benefit assessment of the new energy power generation and heating project, and can combine the assessment results with the benefits of traditional energy heating. The new energy green heating alternative has both economic and environmental value, providing data support for investors' decision-making and project optimization.

[0035] Embodiment 2 of the present invention discloses an electronic device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and capable of running on the processor. When the computer program is loaded onto the processor, it implements the aforementioned method for cost and benefit assessment of a new energy power generation and heating project.

[0036] Embodiment 3 of the present invention discloses a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the aforementioned method for cost and benefit assessment of a new energy power generation and heating project.

[0037] The beneficial effects of this invention are that, compared with the prior art, this invention achieves a comprehensive, accurate, and iterative optimization evaluation of new energy power generation and heating projects by organically combining configuration parameters, financing schemes, cost-benefit analysis, and dynamic optimization. It also achieves precise iterative updates by optimizing projects through the rate of return indicator, significantly improving the feasibility of project schemes and the scientific nature of investment decisions, and effectively reducing investment risks.

[0038] This invention proposes a method for calculating the comprehensive cost and total revenue of renewable energy power generation and heating substitution projects. On one hand, the comprehensive cost of the project comprehensively considers multiple costs, including construction costs, operating costs, stable supply guarantee costs, financing costs, and taxes, ensuring sufficient basis for cost accounting and improving the accuracy and reliability of the rate of return indicator. On the other hand, the total revenue of the project considers renewable energy heating revenue, renewable energy grid connection revenue, and subsidy income, effectively coupling heating revenue with electricity revenue. Furthermore, the renewable energy grid connection revenue is calculated by constructing a market revenue model, systematically integrating and quantifying diverse revenue sources such as medium- and long-term transactions, spot transactions, ancillary services, and electricity price compensation. This not only overcomes the problem of a single revenue model caused by the traditional assessment using only a fixed on-grid electricity price, but also accurately depicts the true profitability of renewable energy in the electricity market environment. The invention establishes an assessment model for the comprehensive cost and total revenue of the project, providing investors with precise decision-making guidance.

[0039] This disclosure can be a system, method, and / or computer program product. A computer program product may include a computer-readable storage medium having computer-readable program instructions loaded thereon for causing a processor to implement various aspects of this disclosure.

[0040] Computer-readable storage media can be tangible devices capable of holding and storing instructions for use by an instruction execution device. Computer-readable storage media can be, for example—but not limited to—electrical storage devices, magnetic storage devices, optical storage devices, electromagnetic storage devices, semiconductor storage devices, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. More specific examples (a non-exhaustive list) of computer-readable storage media include: portable computer disks, hard disks, random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), static random access memory (SRAM), portable compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), digital multifunction disc (DVD), memory sticks, floppy disks, mechanical encoding devices, such as punch cards or recessed protrusions storing instructions thereon, and any suitable combination of the foregoing. The computer-readable storage media used herein are not to be construed as transient signals themselves, such as radio waves or other freely propagating electromagnetic waves, electromagnetic waves propagating through waveguides or other transmission media (e.g., light pulses through fiber optic cables), or electrical signals transmitted through wires.

[0041] The computer-readable program instructions described herein can be downloaded from computer-readable storage media to various computing / processing devices, or downloaded via a network, such as the Internet, local area network, wide area network, and / or wireless network, to an external computer or external storage device. The network may include copper transmission cables, fiber optic transmission, wireless transmission, routers, firewalls, switches, gateway computers, and / or edge servers. A network adapter card or network interface in each computing / processing device receives the computer-readable program instructions from the network and forwards them to the computer-readable storage media in the respective computing / processing device.

[0042] Computer program instructions used to perform the operations of this disclosure may be assembly instructions, instruction set architecture (ISA) instructions, machine instructions, machine-dependent instructions, microcode, firmware instructions, status setting data, or source code or object code written in any combination of one or more programming languages, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Smalltalk, C++, etc., and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as the "C" language or similar programming languages. The computer-readable program instructions may execute entirely on the user's computer, partially on the user's computer, as a standalone software package, partially on the user's computer and partially on a remote computer, or entirely on a remote computer or server. In cases involving a remote computer, the remote computer may be connected to the user's computer via any type of network—including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN)—or may be connected to an external computer (e.g., via the Internet using an Internet service provider). In some embodiments, electronic circuitry, such as programmable logic circuitry, field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), or programmable logic arrays (PLAs), is personalized by utilizing the status information of the computer-readable program instructions to implement various aspects of this disclosure.

[0043] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications or equivalent substitutions can still be made to the specific implementation of the present invention. Any modifications or equivalent substitutions that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for cost and benefit assessment of new energy power generation and heating projects, characterized in that, include: Obtain the various costs of the new energy power generation and heating project, and calculate the overall project cost; Obtain the configuration parameters, required electricity consumption, and subsidy income of the project entity, and calculate the total project revenue; design a financing plan based on the project's comprehensive cost and total revenue; obtain multiple rate of return indicators based on the financing plan, and evaluate and optimize the project based on these indicators.

2. The method for cost and benefit assessment of a new energy power generation and heating project according to claim 1, characterized in that: The process of obtaining various costs of the new energy power generation and heating project and calculating the comprehensive project cost includes: determining the construction investment cost based on the project plan; determining the operating cost based on the system operation and maintenance requirements; determining the financing cost based on the financing structure; and determining the taxes and fees based on tax policies. If the project needs to be connected to the grid in a local consumption mode, the stable supply guarantee service fee is determined based on policy conditions. The comprehensive project cost is obtained by integrating the construction investment cost, operating cost, financing cost, taxes and fees, and stable supply guarantee service fee.

3. The method for cost and benefit assessment of a new energy power generation and heating project according to claim 1, characterized in that: The process of obtaining the configuration parameters, required electricity consumption, and subsidy income of the project entity, and calculating the total project revenue, includes: obtaining the configuration parameters, required electricity consumption, and subsidy income of the project entity, and building a simulation operation model based on the project entity; inputting the configuration parameters into the simulation operation model to obtain the annual heating supply and new energy power generation; calculating the new energy heating revenue by combining the annual heating supply with a preset heating price mechanism, and calculating the new energy grid connection revenue based on the new energy power generation and required electricity consumption; and integrating the new energy heating revenue, new energy grid connection revenue, and subsidy income to calculate the total project revenue.

4. The method for cost and benefit assessment of a new energy power generation and heating project according to claim 3, characterized in that: The calculation of new energy grid connection revenue based on new energy power generation and required electricity consumption includes: determining the remaining new energy power generation after meeting the required electricity consumption based on the new energy power generation; constructing a market revenue model; and simulating and predicting the remaining new energy power generation based on the market revenue model to obtain the new energy grid connection revenue.

5. The method for cost and benefit assessment of a new energy power generation and heating project according to claim 4, characterized in that: The method of simulating and predicting the remaining renewable energy generation based on the market revenue model to obtain the renewable energy grid connection revenue includes: constructing a multi-dimensional market revenue model that includes medium- and long-term transaction revenue, spot market revenue, electricity price compensation revenue and ancillary service revenue; and simulating and predicting the remaining renewable energy generation based on the annual spot electricity price, medium- and long-term transaction electricity price and provincial and regional electricity market settlement rules to calculate the renewable energy grid connection revenue.

6. The method for cost and benefit assessment of a new energy power generation and heating project according to claim 1, characterized in that: The financing scheme design, which combines the project's comprehensive cost and total revenue, includes: calculating the project's total investment cash flow based on the project's comprehensive cost and total revenue to obtain the project's rate of return; if the project's rate of return is greater than or equal to the project's benchmark rate of return, a financing scheme will be designed.

7. The method for cost and benefit assessment of a new energy power generation and heating project according to claim 1, characterized in that: The process involves obtaining multiple rate of return (ROR) indicators based on the financing plan, and evaluating and optimizing the project based on these indicators. This includes: obtaining multiple RRO indicators by calculating the project's capital cash flow statement, investor cash flow statements, profit and profit distribution statement, financial plan cash flow statement, and balance sheet; adjusting any RRO indicator to a lower-than-average return rate through project optimization until any RRO indicator is greater than or equal to the corresponding benchmark RRO indicator; and evaluating the overall cost and benefits of the new energy power generation and heating project when all RRO indicators are greater than or equal to the corresponding benchmark RRO indicator.

8. The method for cost and benefit assessment of a new energy power generation and heating project according to claim 7, characterized in that: The project optimization includes optimizing configuration parameters or financing plans, thereby adjusting the corresponding rate of return indicators.

9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that, When the computer program is loaded into the processor, it implements a method for cost and benefit assessment of a new energy power generation and heating project according to any one of claims 1 to 8.

10. A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements a method for cost and benefit assessment of a new energy power generation and heating project according to any one of claims 1 to 8.

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