Geological disaster safety risk assessment method based on rainfall, landslides, and power transmission tower deformation

Abstract

This application provides a geological disaster safety risk assessment method based on rainfall, landslides, and transmission tower deformation, relating to the field of geological disaster prediction. The method includes: collecting multi-source data in the slope area where the transmission tower is located; constructing a rainfall-induced soil moisture content response model and dynamically correcting the soil shear strength parameters; calculating the landslide stability safety factor based on the corrected soil shear strength parameters; constructing a comprehensive deformation index for the transmission tower; obtaining a rainfall risk index; and combining the landslide stability safety factor and the comprehensive deformation index of the transmission tower to construct a comprehensive risk assessment model, outputting the risk level and early warning signal. This application constructs a dynamically coupled risk assessment model of the three elements of "rainfall-slope-tower," realizing a comprehensive analysis from meteorological disaster to structural response.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the field of geological disaster prediction, and in particular to a geological disaster safety risk assessment method based on rainfall, landslides and power transmission tower deformation. Background Technology

[0002] With the continuous expansion of the power grid, a large number of transmission lines are being erected in mountainous, hilly, and geologically complex areas. Due to the impact of climate change, extreme rainfall events are becoming more frequent. Heavy rainfall can cause a rapid increase in the water content of slope soil, reducing its shear strength and easily inducing geological disasters such as landslides and collapses. This poses a serious threat to the foundation stability and structural safety of transmission towers, and may even lead to major accidents such as tower collapse and line breakage.

[0003] Currently, existing technical solutions for monitoring and assessing rainfall-induced landslides and their impact on the safety of transmission towers can be broadly categorized into the following three types: (a) Single rainfall threshold early warning method Rainfall (such as cumulative rainfall over 24, 48, and 72 hours) is used as a landslide early warning indicator, and an early warning is issued when the rainfall reaches a certain threshold. However, this method has obvious limitations: it cannot reflect the true water content of the soil, does not consider the actual differences in slope stability, and has no direct quantitative correlation with the safety of power transmission towers.

[0004] (II) Landslide Stability Analysis Methods In some projects, limit equilibrium methods and numerical simulations (FLAC, PLAXIS, etc.) are used to calculate slope stability, but most of these are one-off analyses. Relying on manually input parameters makes real-time dynamic assessment difficult, and real-time rainfall data and tower deformation monitoring data are not incorporated.

[0005] (III) Tower Condition Monitoring Methods In a few areas, inclinometers, strain gauges and other monitoring equipment have been installed along important routes. However, the existing systems are mostly data-isolated, only providing alarm functions, and lack coupling analysis with rainfall-landslide mechanisms, making it impossible to provide a comprehensive risk level assessment.

[0006] In summary, existing technologies suffer from the following prominent problems: they fail to integrate the rainfall process, slope response, and tower structural deformation into a unified analysis; they lack multi-source data fusion algorithms for comprehensive risk assessment and quantitative risk classification; and they lack specific landslide risk models for power transmission towers. Therefore, it is necessary to propose a new comprehensive assessment method to improve the accuracy of safety risk assessment for transmission lines under rainfall conditions. Summary of the Invention

[0007] The purpose of this invention is to address the problems in existing technologies that fail to integrate rainfall processes, slope stability, and transmission tower structural deformation into a unified analysis, and lack a comprehensive risk assessment model that fuses multi-source data, resulting in low early warning accuracy and weak targeting. This invention provides a geological disaster safety risk assessment method based on rainfall, landslides, and transmission tower deformation.

[0008] The above-mentioned objective of this application is achieved through the following technical solution: Step S1: Collect multi-source data in the slope area where the transmission tower is located; Step S2: Construct a rainfall-soil moisture content response model and dynamically correct the soil shear strength parameters; Step S3: Calculate the landslide stability safety factor based on the corrected soil shear strength parameters. ; Step S4: Construct a comprehensive deformation index for transmission towers ; Step S5: Obtain the rainfall risk index, combine it with the landslide stability safety factor and the comprehensive deformation index of the transmission tower, construct a comprehensive risk assessment model, and output the risk level and early warning signal.

[0009] Optionally, step S1 includes: Multi-source data includes: rainfall parameters, slope soil parameters, and transmission tower structural parameters; Rainfall parameters include: rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall ; Slope soil parameters include: soil moisture content ; Transmission tower structural parameters include: tower tilt angle Horizontal displacement and basic deformation .

[0010] Optionally, step S2 includes: The rainfall-soil moisture content response model calculates soil moisture content using the following formula. :

[0011] in for Soil moisture content at any given time This represents the initial natural moisture content of the soil. The saturated water content of the soil. for Accumulated rainfall at all times The saturated permeability coefficient of the soil. This is a rainfall infiltration factor, related to slope gradient and vegetation cover, used to correct the infiltration rate;

[0012] In the formula, The infiltration coefficient is... Rainfall intensity; Introducing water-induced softening damage factors Dynamic correction of the Mohr-Coulomb strength parameters:

[0013] In the formula, The soil softening index is generally taken as... This characterizes the nonlinearity of soil structure's sensitivity to water. Based on water softening damage factors An exponential decay model for shear strength indices is constructed, and the correction formula for soil shear strength parameters is as follows:

[0014]

[0015] In the formula, and The soil's natural cohesion and internal friction angle, and The saturated cohesion and internal friction angle of the soil after rainfall. and The intensity attenuation rate coefficient; and These are the corrected natural cohesion and internal friction angle of the soil, i.e., the corrected shear strength parameters of the soil.

[0016] Optionally, step S3 includes: landslide stability safety factor The calculation is performed using the limit equilibrium method, specifically as follows:

[0017]

[0018]

[0019] In the formula, This is the landslide stability coefficient; Indicates the first The moment coefficient of the strip surface; For the first Calculate the cohesion of the strip surface. For the first Calculate the internal friction angle of the sliding surface of the strip. For the first Calculate the length of the strip surface. For the first Calculate the dip angle of the slip surface of the block. Take a positive value when the dip direction of the slip surface is the same as the sliding direction, and take a negative value when the dip direction is opposite to the sliding direction. For the first Calculate the total water pressure per unit width of the strip surface. For the first Calculate the weight per unit width of the strip. For the first Calculate the vertical additional load per unit width of the strip, taking a positive value when the direction points downwards and a negative value when it points upwards; Indicates the first Calculate the horizontal force per unit width of the strip surface; For the first Passing the exam Calculate the head height at the front end of the slide block. It is the specific gravity of water; To calculate the block number, start numbering from the end. This represents the number of strips / blocks.

[0020] Optionally, step S4 includes: Based on the structural parameters of the transmission tower, a comprehensive deformation index for the transmission tower is constructed. for:

[0021] In the formula, , , These are the weighting coefficients, and ; This refers to the horizontal displacement of the tower. For the tower tilt angle, The basic deformation amount.

[0022] Optionally, step S5 includes: Overall Risk Index for:

[0023] in: These are the normalized rainfall risk index, landslide stability safety factor, and comprehensive deformation index of power transmission towers, respectively. These are the weighting coefficients, and ; According to the comprehensive risk index Risks are categorized into three levels: Low risk: ; Medium risk: ; High risk: .

[0024] An electronic device includes a processor, a memory, a user interface, and a network interface. The memory is used to store instructions, the user interface and the network interface are used to communicate with other devices, and the processor is used to execute the instructions stored in the memory to enable the electronic device to perform a geological disaster safety risk assessment method based on rainfall, landslides, and power transmission tower deformation.

[0025] A computer-readable storage medium storing instructions that, when executed, perform a geological disaster safety risk assessment method based on rainfall, landslides, and transmission tower deformation.

[0026] The beneficial effects of the technical solution provided in this application are: This invention establishes a real-time water content response model based on the theory of unsaturated soil, introduces a water-induced softening damage factor to dynamically correct the shear strength, and upgrades the static stability analysis to a time-varying dynamic evaluation. An innovative comprehensive deformation index for power poles was proposed, unifying and quantifying horizontal displacement, tilt angle, and foundation settlement to enhance the systematic nature of structural safety assessment. A multi-source data fusion algorithm was developed, coupling rainfall risk, landslide stability coefficient, and power pole deformation index to construct a comprehensive risk classification system. A risk assessment model dynamically coupled with the three elements of "rainfall-slope-power pole" was constructed, realizing a comprehensive analysis of the entire process from meteorological disasters to structural responses. Attached Figure Description

[0027] The present application will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. In the accompanying drawings: Figure 1 This is a flowchart of an embodiment of this application; Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the electronic device structure in the embodiments of this application; Figure 3 This is a real-time change curve diagram in the embodiments of this application; Figure 4 This is a comprehensive risk index diagram in the embodiments of this application. Detailed Implementation

[0028] To provide a clearer understanding of the technical features, objectives, and effects of this application, the specific embodiments of this application will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0029] The embodiments of this application provide a method for assessing geological disaster safety risks based on rainfall, landslides, and power transmission tower deformation.

[0030] Please refer to Figure 1 , Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a geological disaster safety risk assessment method based on rainfall, landslides, and transmission tower deformation, as described in this application, including: Step S1: Collect multi-source data in the slope area where the transmission tower is located; Step S2: Construct a rainfall-soil moisture content response model and dynamically correct the soil shear strength parameters; Step S3: Calculate the landslide stability safety factor based on the corrected soil shear strength parameters. ; Step S4: Construct a comprehensive deformation index for transmission towers ; Step S5: Obtain the rainfall risk index, combine it with the landslide stability safety factor and the comprehensive deformation index of the transmission tower, construct a comprehensive risk assessment model, and output the risk level and early warning signal.

[0031] The key to this application, through the aforementioned technical solution, lies in the simultaneous acquisition of multiple parameters from various sensors of the same transmission tower and its surrounding slope area. This establishes a clear temporal correspondence between rainfall, slope response, and structural deformation, providing a foundation for the coupled analysis of meteorological, geological, and structural elements from the outset. By establishing the response relationship between rainfall and soil moisture content, dynamic correction of soil shear strength parameters is achieved, directly mapping rainfall to shear strength. This upgrades landslide stability analysis from traditional static calculations to a dynamic time-varying model that updates in real time with changes in rainfall. Furthermore, a comprehensive deformation index is innovatively constructed to represent the structural characteristics of the transmission tower, unifying the representation of various deformation forms such as displacement, tilt angle, and settlement, making the tower stability assessment more systematic and engineering-specific.

[0032] This application provides an embodiment as follows: This invention breaks through the existing single-factor evaluation mode and for the first time substantially couples rainfall factors, slope stability factors and transmission tower structural deformation factors to construct a comprehensive risk assessment model, thereby realizing a quantitative, dynamic and refined assessment of the safety status of transmission towers.

[0033] Step S1 includes: Multi-source data includes: rainfall parameters, slope soil parameters, and transmission tower structural parameters; Rainfall parameters include: rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall ; Slope soil parameters include: soil moisture content ; Transmission tower structural parameters include: tower tilt angle Horizontal displacement and basic deformation .

[0034] Step S2 includes: The rainfall-soil moisture content response model calculates soil moisture content using the following formula. :

[0035] in for Soil moisture content at any given time This represents the initial natural moisture content of the soil. The saturated water content of the soil. for Accumulated rainfall at all times The saturated permeability coefficient of the soil. This is a rainfall infiltration factor, related to slope gradient and vegetation cover, used to correct the infiltration rate; As one example, unsaturated soil mechanics theory is introduced based on multi-source data. Addressing the nonlinear characteristics of soil moisture content during rainfall infiltration—characterized by rapid initial growth followed by a gradual plateau—a rainfall-soil moisture content response model constrained by soil porosity is constructed.

[0036]

[0037] In the formula, The infiltration coefficient is... Rainfall intensity; Introducing water-induced softening damage factors Dynamic correction of the Mohr-Coulomb strength parameters:

[0038] In the formula, The soil softening index is generally taken as... This characterizes the nonlinearity of soil structure's sensitivity to water. Based on water softening damage factors An exponential decay model for shear strength indices is constructed, and the correction formula for soil shear strength parameters is as follows:

[0039]

[0040] In the formula, and The soil's natural cohesion and internal friction angle, and The saturated cohesion and internal friction angle of the soil after rainfall. and The intensity attenuation rate coefficient; and These are the corrected natural cohesion and internal friction angle of the soil, i.e., the corrected shear strength parameters of the soil.

[0041] Step S3 includes: landslide stability safety factor The calculation is performed using the limit equilibrium method, specifically as follows:

[0042]

[0043]

[0044] In the formula, This is the landslide stability coefficient; Indicates the first The moment coefficient of the strip surface; For the first Calculate the cohesion of the strip surface. For the first Calculate the internal friction angle of the sliding surface of the strip. For the first Calculate the length of the strip surface. For the first Calculate the dip angle of the slip surface of the block. Take a positive value when the dip direction of the slip surface is the same as the sliding direction, and take a negative value when the dip direction is opposite to the sliding direction. For the first Calculate the total water pressure per unit width of the strip surface. For the first Calculate the weight per unit width of the strip. For the first Calculate the vertical additional load per unit width of the strip, taking a positive value when the direction points downwards and a negative value when it points upwards; Indicates the first Calculate the horizontal force per unit width of the strip surface; For the first Passing the exam Calculate the head height at the front end of the slide block. It is the specific gravity of water; To calculate the block number, start numbering from the end. This represents the number of strips / blocks.

[0045] As one example, the slope stability is evaluated and classified as shown in Tables 1, 2, and 3 below: Table 1

[0046] Table 2

[0047] Based on the actual situation, the slope stability safety factor Secondary indexes were selected for the permanent slope under one working condition. According to the calculation Determine the stability of the landslide: Table 3

[0048] Step S4 includes: Based on the structural parameters of the transmission tower, a comprehensive deformation index for the transmission tower is constructed. for:

[0049] In the formula, , , These are the weighting coefficients, and ; This refers to the horizontal displacement of the tower. For the tower tilt angle, The basic deformation amount.

[0050] Step S5 includes: Overall Risk Index for:

[0051] in: These are the normalized rainfall risk index, landslide stability safety factor, and comprehensive deformation index of power transmission towers, respectively. These are the weighting coefficients, and ; According to the comprehensive risk index Risks are categorized into three levels: Low risk: ; Medium risk: ; High risk: .

[0052] As one embodiment, the weighting coefficients involved in this application (such as the tower deformation weights a, b, and c in step S4 and the comprehensive risk weight in step S5) , and It is not a fixed constant, but is calculated based on a specific engineering background using the analytic hierarchy process or the entropy weight method.

[0053] As one example, the approach upgrades from static analysis to "time-varying dynamic" assessment: Traditional methods are mostly one-time static analyses based on manually input parameters, relying on a single rainfall threshold, and cannot reflect the true real-time water content of the soil. The improved method constructs a "rainfall-soil water content response model" and introduces a water-induced softening damage factor. Dynamically correcting shear strength parameters can accurately identify risk points where the soil is already close to saturation even if rainfall does not reach the threshold. It enables real-time updates of landslide stability analysis as rainfall changes, capturing the nonlinear process of soil strength decreasing with increasing water content. This provides a dynamic and refined characterization of the disaster process, making early warning more timely.

[0054] Table 4 shows a comparison of the performance of the proposed method with that of traditional methods when conducting retrospective testing on historical geological disaster data of a power transmission line in a mountainous area. Table 4

[0055] This leads to a nonlinear decay process in the soil shear strength. Compared to static stability analysis, this method provides a more accurate assessment of the landslide stability safety factor. The calculation results are closer to actual working conditions, and the early warning lead time can be increased by 3-6 hours. Figure 3 To introduce water-induced softening damage factors , Follow (24-hour real-time change curve).

[0056] As one example, the "whole-process" analysis driven by multi-source data fusion lacks unified coupling between rainfall processes, slope responses, and tower deformation, resulting in low early warning accuracy and weak targeting. An improved approach involves developing a multi-source data fusion algorithm to normalize the rainfall risk index. landslide stability coefficient With tower deformation index Coupling is used to construct a comprehensive risk index R. This achieves seamless integration from meteorological disasters to structural responses, making risk classification (low, medium, high) more scientific and precise. Figure 4 As shown.

[0057] This application uses a comprehensive analysis of the entire process from meteorology to geology to structure. The risk index R transforms vague disaster phenomena into quantitative values ​​between 0 and 1. Based on the R value, three levels of risk—low, medium, and high—are defined, enabling power operation and maintenance departments to take more targeted graded response measures and establishing a comprehensive early warning system that connects meteorological disasters to structural responses.

[0058] Backtesting shows that the risk assessment model constructed in this application has an early warning accuracy of over 90% in complex mountainous environments, and due to the introduction of real-time structural response data, the false alarm rate is significantly reduced compared to the traditional rainfall threshold method.

[0059] This application also discloses an electronic device. (See reference...) Figure 2 , Figure 2This is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device disclosed in an embodiment of this application. The electronic device 500 may include: at least one processor 501, at least one network interface 504, a user interface 503, a memory 505, and at least one communication bus 502.

[0060] The communication bus 502 is used to enable communication between these components.

[0061] The user interface 503 may include a display screen, and optionally, the user interface 503 may also include a standard wired interface or a wireless interface.

[0062] The network interface 504 may optionally include a standard wired interface or a wireless interface (such as a Wi-Fi interface).

[0063] This application also discloses a computer-readable storage medium storing multiple instructions adapted for loading by a processor to execute the above-described method for assessing geological disaster safety risks based on rainfall, landslides, and power transmission tower deformation.

[0064] The above are merely exemplary embodiments of this disclosure and should not be construed as limiting the scope of this disclosure. Any equivalent changes and modifications made in accordance with the teachings of this disclosure shall still fall within the scope of this disclosure.

[0065] This application is intended to cover any variations, uses, or adaptations of this disclosure that follow the general principles of this disclosure and include common knowledge or customary techniques in the art not described in this disclosure. The specification and embodiments are to be considered exemplary only, and the scope and spirit of this disclosure are defined by the claims.

Claims

1. A method for assessing geological disaster safety risks based on rainfall, landslides, and transmission tower deformation, characterized in that, The method includes the following steps: Step S1: Collect multi-source data in the slope area where the transmission tower is located; Step S2: Construct a rainfall-soil moisture content response model and dynamically correct the soil shear strength parameters; Step S3: Calculate the landslide stability safety factor based on the corrected soil shear strength parameters. ; Step S4: Construct a comprehensive deformation index for transmission towers ; Step S5: Obtain the rainfall risk index, combine it with the landslide stability safety factor and the comprehensive deformation index of the transmission tower, construct a comprehensive risk assessment model, and output the risk level and early warning signal.

2. The geological disaster safety risk assessment method based on rainfall, landslides, and transmission tower deformation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Step S1 includes: Multi-source data includes: rainfall parameters, slope soil parameters, and transmission tower structural parameters; Rainfall parameters include: rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall ; Slope soil parameters include: soil moisture content ; Transmission tower structural parameters include: tower tilt angle Horizontal displacement and basic deformation .

3. The geological disaster safety risk assessment method based on rainfall, landslides, and transmission tower deformation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Step S2 includes: The rainfall-soil moisture content response model calculates soil moisture content using the following formula. : in for Soil moisture content at any given time This represents the initial natural moisture content of the soil. The saturated water content of the soil. for Accumulated rainfall at all times The saturated permeability coefficient of the soil. This is a rainfall infiltration factor, related to slope gradient and vegetation cover, used to correct the infiltration rate; In the formula, The infiltration coefficient is... Rainfall intensity; Introducing water-induced softening damage factors Dynamic correction of the Mohr-Coulomb strength parameters: In the formula, The soil softening index is generally taken as... This characterizes the nonlinearity of soil structure's sensitivity to water. Based on water softening damage factors An exponential decay model for shear strength indices is constructed, and the correction formula for soil shear strength parameters is as follows: In the formula, and The soil's natural cohesion and internal friction angle, and The saturated cohesion and internal friction angle of the soil after rainfall. and This is the intensity attenuation rate coefficient; and These are the corrected natural cohesion and internal friction angle of the soil, i.e., the corrected shear strength parameters of the soil.

4. The geological disaster safety risk assessment method based on rainfall, landslides, and transmission tower deformation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Step S3 includes: landslide stability safety factor The calculation is performed using the limit equilibrium method, specifically as follows: In the formula, This is the landslide stability coefficient; Indicates the first The moment coefficient of the strip surface; For the first Calculate the cohesion of the strip surface. For the first Calculate the internal friction angle of the sliding surface of the strip. For the first Calculate the length of the strip surface. For the first Calculate the dip angle of the slip surface of the block. Take a positive value when the dip direction of the slip surface is the same as the sliding direction, and take a negative value when the dip direction is opposite to the sliding direction. For the first Calculate the total water pressure per unit width of the strip surface. For the first Calculate the weight per unit width of the strip. For the first Calculate the vertical additional load per unit width of the strip, taking a positive value when the direction points downwards and a negative value when it points upwards; Indicates the first Calculate the horizontal force per unit width of the strip surface; For the first Passing the exam Calculate the head height at the front end of the slide block. It is the specific gravity of water; To calculate the block number, start numbering from the end. This represents the number of strips / blocks.

5. The geological disaster safety risk assessment method based on rainfall, landslides, and transmission tower deformation as described in claim 2, characterized in that, Step S4 includes: Based on the structural parameters of the transmission tower, a comprehensive deformation index for the transmission tower is constructed. for: In the formula, , , These are the weighting coefficients, and ; This refers to the horizontal displacement of the tower. For the tower tilt angle, The basic deformation amount.

6. The geological disaster safety risk assessment method based on rainfall, landslides, and transmission tower deformation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Step S5 includes: Overall Risk Index for: in: These are the normalized rainfall risk index, landslide stability safety factor, and comprehensive deformation index of power transmission towers, respectively. These are the weighting coefficients, and ; According to the comprehensive risk index Risks are categorized into three levels: Low risk: ; Medium risk: ; High risk: .

7. An electronic device, characterized in that, The device includes a processor, a memory, a user interface, and a network interface. The memory is used to store instructions, the user interface and the network interface are used to communicate with other devices, and the processor is used to execute the instructions stored in the memory to enable the electronic device to perform the geological disaster safety risk assessment method based on rainfall, landslides and transmission tower deformation as described in any one of claims 1-6.

8. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The computer-readable storage medium stores instructions that, when executed by a computer, perform the geological disaster safety risk assessment method based on rainfall, landslides, and transmission tower deformation as described in any one of claims 1-6.

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