Incident response support system and incident response support method

Abstract

To allocate resources to response appropriately to an incident before the incident actually occurs.SOLUTION: An incident response support system is configured to: determine whether or not incidents are predicted based on input data from an external system; generate series data of incident amounts and forecast errors of the incident amounts, for the predicted incidents; determine a series of resource amounts based on a series of the incident amounts; determine a series of reserve resource amounts based on the series of forecast errors of incident amounts; and create a work schedule for responding to incidents based on the series of resource amounts, the series of reserve resource amounts, and resource management information.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates generally to assisting with incident response. [Background technology]

[0002] In the energy business and other businesses that support social activities, strengthening resilience to continue providing services is considered an important issue. For example, electric power companies use a large amount of equipment for a long period of time, and therefore face the risk of equipment deterioration. In addition, many of the equipment are installed outdoors, and are exposed to risks from the natural environment. When an incident actually occurs due to a risk, it is important to have resilience to quickly detect the incident and mitigate its impact.

[0003] Appropriate incident response contributes to improving resilience. Technologies related to incident response include those disclosed in Patent Documents 1 and 2, for example. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] JP 2007-129547 A [Patent Document 2] JP 2015-42086 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] Responding to an incident requires resources such as materials and labor. If resources are depleted, it is not possible to respond to the incident adequately. Furthermore, if the amount of resources required for responding to an incident is calculated after the incident actually occurs, it is not possible to respond to the incident quickly. This issue is significant, for example, when the risk of an incident occurring is a natural disaster. This is because natural disasters generally cause incidents in multiple regions, and the amount of damage in each region (an example of the amount of incidents) differs depending on the severity of the disaster over time and the amount of facilities in the region.

[0006] The techniques disclosed in Patent Documents 1 and 2 cannot solve such problems because Patent Document 1 does not describe calculating the amount of resources, such as materials and labor, required for incident response, and the technique disclosed in Patent Document 2 requires that an incident actually occurs. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] An incident response support system determines whether an incident can be predicted based on input data from an external system, generates series data of incident amounts and prediction errors of the incident amounts for predicted incidents, determines a series of resource amounts based on the series of incident amounts, determines a series of reserve resource amounts based on the series of prediction errors of the incident amounts, and creates a work schedule for responding to the incident based on the series of resource amounts, the series of reserve resource amounts, and resource management information. Effect of the Invention

[0008] According to the present invention, resources are allocated for appropriate incident response before an incident actually occurs. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0009] [Figure 1] 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of an entire system including an incident response support system according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Diagram 2] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of the incident response support system. [Diagram 3] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of resistance and recovery force. [Figure 4] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of ensemble forecast data of typhoon tracks. [Diagram 5] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of forecast data representing a time series of average rainfall values. [Figure 6] FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of the concept of the relationship between the amount of damage, the prediction error of the amount of damage, and the amount of resources. [Figure 7] 1 is a graph showing a step-by-step recovery process when a complex disaster occurs. [Figure 8] 1 is a graph that models the recovery of a system state during an initial response to an incident. [Figure 9] 1 is a graph showing a concept of evaluating the seriousness of a risk. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0010] In the following description, an "interface unit" may refer to one or more interface devices. The one or more interface devices may be at least one of the following: One or more I / O (Input / Output) interface devices. The I / O (Input / Output) interface devices are interface devices to at least one of the I / O devices and a remote display computer. The I / O interface device to the display computer may be a communications interface device. The at least one I / O device may be a user interface device, e.g., either an input device such as a keyboard and a pointing device, or an output device such as a display device. One or more communication interface devices. The one or more communication interface devices may be one or more homogeneous communication interface devices (e.g., one or more NICs (Network Interface Cards)) or two or more heterogeneous communication interface devices (e.g., a NIC and an HBA (Host Bus Adapter)).

[0011] In the following description, a "memory" refers to one or more memory devices, typically a primary storage device. At least one of the memory devices in the memory may be a volatile memory device or a non-volatile memory device.

[0012] In the following description, a "persistent storage device" refers to one or more persistent storage devices. A persistent storage device is typically a non-volatile storage device (e.g., an auxiliary storage device), and specifically, for example, a hard disk drive (HDD) or a solid state drive (SSD).

[0013] Also, in the following description, a "storage device" may be at least one of a memory and a persistent storage device (eg, a memory).

[0014] In the following description, a "processor" refers to one or more processor devices. The at least one processor device is typically a microprocessor device such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), but may be another type of processor device such as a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit). The at least one processor device may be a single-core or multi-core. The at least one processor device may be a processor core. The at least one processor device may be a processor device in a broader sense, such as a hardware circuit (e.g., an FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array) or an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit)) that performs part or all of the processing.

[0015] In the following description, functions may be described using the expression "yyy unit", but the functions may be realized by one or more computer programs being executed by a processor, or by one or more hardware circuits (e.g., FPGA or ASIC), or by a combination thereof. When a function is realized by a program being executed by a processor, the function may be at least a part of the processor, since the specified processing is performed using a storage device and / or an interface device, etc., as appropriate. Processing described with a function as the subject may be processing performed by a processor or a device having the processor. A program may be installed from a program source. The program source may be, for example, a program distribution computer or a computer-readable recording medium (e.g., a non-transitory recording medium). The description of each function is an example, and multiple functions may be combined into one function, or one function may be divided into multiple functions.

[0016] 1 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of an entire system including an incident response support system according to an embodiment of the present invention. In the following description, "DB" is an abbreviation for database.

[0017] The incident response support system 10 is a computer system that supports incident response. The incident response support system 10 communicates with an external system 20 via a communication network 39 (e.g., the Internet). The incident response support system 10 may communicate with a work planning system 40 and / or an incident response system 30 via the communication network 39 (or another communication network). The incident response support system 10 may communicate with a UI (User Interface) device 15.

[0018] The external system 20 inputs input data used to predict an incident to the incident response support system 10. In other words, the external system 20 is a source of data used to predict an incident. For example, the external system 20 may be at least one of a weather server 21, a satellite image data server 22, an equipment status monitoring server 23, and a news agency server 25. The weather server 21 provides weather data including weather (e.g., rainfall) forecast data for each of one or more regions. The satellite image data server 22 provides satellite image data including data of satellite images of one or more regions. The equipment status monitoring server 23 provides monitoring data of equipment status. The news agency server 25 provides news data compiled by a news agency such as a newspaper company. In this embodiment, the "risk of an incident occurring" is a "natural disaster" and the "incident" is "damage caused by a natural disaster", and therefore the external system 20 includes at least one of the weather server 21 and the satellite image data server 22.

[0019] The incident response support system 10 may be a physical computer system (one or more physical computers) and may include an interface device, a storage device, and a processor connected thereto. Specifically, for example, the incident response support system 10 may include a CPU 901, a random access memory (RAM) 902, a read only memory (ROM) 903, a hard disk drive (HDD) 904, a communication I / F (Interface) 905, an input / output I / F 906, and a media I / F 907, as shown in FIG. 2. The CPU 901 may be an example of a processor. The RAM 902 and the ROM 903 may be examples of memories. The HDD 904 may be an example of a persistent storage device. The communication I / F 905, the input / output I / F 906, and the media I / F 907 may be examples of interface devices. The communication I / F 905 may communicate with at least the external system 20 among the external system 20, the work planning system 40, and the incident response system 30. The input / output I / F 906 may communicate with the UI device 15. The UI device 15 may be an input / output device such as a keyboard and a mouse or a display device, or may be an information processing terminal having an input / output device (when the UI device 15 is an information processing terminal, the communication I / F 905 may communicate with the UI device 15). The media I / F 907 may read and write data from / to a storage medium. Note that the incident response support system 10 may be a logical computer system based on a physical computer system (for example, a virtual machine or a system as a cloud computing service) instead of being such a physical computer system.

[0020] A series DB 13 and a resource management DB 4 are stored in a storage device of the incident response support system 10. Incident series data is stored in the series DB 13. Information on resources that can be allocated to incidents is registered in the resource management DB 4.

[0021] For example, by executing the program on a processor, the incident response support system 10 realizes functions such as an incident prediction unit 11, a sequence data generation unit 12, a resource amount calculation unit 14, a resource allocation unit 16, and an output control unit 17.

[0022] The incident prediction unit 11 judges whether an incident is predicted based on input data from an external system 20. The input data may include forecast data and past observation data for weather or other matters. The input data may also include area data including data that can identify the slope and amount of facilities for each area.

[0023] When an incident is predicted, the sequence data generating unit 12 predicts incidents for each time in a target period by region based on input data from the external system 20, specifically, predicts the amount of damage at each time in the target period. The sequence data generating unit 12 also predicts the prediction error of the predicted amount of damage (the difference between the actual amount of damage and the predicted amount of damage) for each time in the target period. The sequence data generating unit 12 generates sequence data of incidents, specifically, data including the predicted amount of damage and the prediction error at each time in the target period (for example, time series data of the amount of damage and the prediction error), and stores the generated sequence data in the sequence DB 13. Note that the "target period" may be a period during which an incident response is required. The start time of the "target period" may be the time of occurrence of the disaster (the time of occurrence of a natural disaster), and the time of occurrence of the disaster may be a past time (the time when the natural disaster actually occurred) or a predicted time (the time when the natural disaster was predicted to occur). The end time of the "target period" may be the time of convergence (the predicted end time of the natural disaster) or a later time (for example, the time after a length of time based on a predetermined policy including the status of recovery work is added to the convergence time), and the time of convergence may be a predicted time (the time when the natural disaster is predicted to end). In addition, the target period may be set for each region, or may be common to multiple regions. The time of disaster may be the time when a natural disaster is expected to occur and preparations should begin, or may be the time when a future natural disaster is predicted to occur.

[0024] The resource amount calculation unit 14 calculates a series of resource amounts and reserve resource amounts corresponding to the series of damage amounts (resource amounts and reserve resource amounts at each time in a target period) based on the series data in the series DB 13 and the resource management DB 4. The resource amounts are based on the damage amounts, and the reserve resource amounts are based on prediction errors of the damage amounts.

[0025] The resource allocation unit 16 allocates resources at each time point in the target period, specifically, for example, creates a work schedule, based on incident series data (here, a series of predicted damage amount and prediction error), the series of calculated resource amounts and reserve resource amounts, and the resource management DB4.

[0026] The output control unit 17 controls the output of the created work schedule. Specifically, for example, the output control unit 17 may display the work schedule on the UI device 15. Also, for example, the output control unit 17 may transmit data representing the work schedule to a work planning system 40 that creates a work plan based on the data. Also, for example, the output control unit 17 may transmit data based on the work schedule to an incident response system 30 based on the data. The work planning system 40 and the incident response system 30 will be described later.

[0027] One of the objectives of this embodiment is to strengthen resilience. As illustrated in Fig. 3, in order to strengthen resilience, it is necessary to improve resistance and recovery against threats such as natural disasters. Resistance is the ability to suppress damage caused by threats, and can be improved, for example, by making facilities more robust and redundant. On the other hand, recovery is the ability to restore the state of a damaged target (for example, a system or facility) to a normal level, and can be improved by the incident response support of this embodiment.

[0028] The incident prediction unit 11, the sequence data generation unit 12, the resource amount calculation unit 14, the resource allocation unit 16, and the output control unit 17 will be described in detail below. (1) Incident Prediction Unit 11

[0029] The incident prediction unit 11 judges whether an incident is predicted based on input data from an external system 20. The input data includes meteorological data, which may include, for example, data illustrated in FIG. 4, i.e., data of an ensemble prediction of a typhoon path. The meteorological data in the input data may include, for example, data illustrated in FIG. 5, i.e., forecast data representing a time series of average rainfall values ​​in each region (e.g., meteorological analysis grids 1, 2, ...). The input data may include satellite image data instead of or in addition to the meteorological data.

[0030] The determination of whether an incident is predicted may be performed for each region. The conditions for determining that an incident is predicted may be set in advance. For example, when N or more typhoon paths (N is a natural number) of multiple typhoon paths represented by data of ensemble prediction of typhoon paths overlap the same region, it may be determined that an incident is predicted for the region. For example, when there is a region where the cumulative average rainfall value in a target period exceeds a certain value, it may be determined that an incident is predicted for the region. In this way, the conditions for determining that an incident is predicted may be set for at least one type of data (value) obtained from input data.

[0031] In addition, the determination of whether an incident is predicted may be performed repeatedly (e.g., periodically), and each time the result of the determination is true (i.e., each time an incident is predicted), sequence data may be generated. Also, if it is determined from the input data that a natural disaster has actually occurred, it may be determined that an incident has been predicted. (2) Sequence data generator 12

[0032] The sequence data generator 12 generates incident sequence data. The sequence data includes data representing a sequence of damage amounts in a target period for each region, and data representing a sequence of prediction errors of the damage amounts in a target period for each region. (2-1) Estimation of damage amount

[0033] The sequence data generating unit 12 predicts the amount of damage at each time point in a target period for each region from the input data.

[0034] For example, if the natural disaster is a typhoon or rainfall, the amount of damage caused by the typhoon or rainfall for each region can be calculated as follows.

[0035] That is, the series data generating unit 12 specifies the severity of each time in the target period for each region from the input data. For example, the series data generating unit 12 may specify the wind speed for each time for each region, and calculate the severity of a typhoon (an example of a natural disaster) for each time based on the specified wind speed for each time (the wind speed itself may be the severity of the typhoon). Also, for example, the series data generating unit 12 may specify the rainfall (average value) and the accumulated rainfall up to that time (accumulated value of the average rainfall) for each region for each time, and specify the slope of the region for each region, and specify the severity of rainfall for each time (severity of landslide disasters caused by rainfall) for each region based on the rainfall, accumulated rainfall, and slope. Regional data indicating the slope of each region may be included in the input data, and the slope of each region may be specified from the input data.

[0036] After specifying the severity for each region, the sequence data generating unit 12 predicts the amount of damage for each region at each hour based on the specified severity for each hour and the amount of equipment in the region (e.g., the amount of utility poles, steel towers, electric wires, etc.). For each hour, the amount of damage may be the product of the severity at that hour and the amount of equipment. Furthermore, the amount of equipment for each region may be specified from input data or a specified database. For example, the input data or a specified database may include data related to the amount of equipment in units of cities, towns, villages, or other units, and the amount of equipment for each region may be specified based on such data.

[0037] Natural disasters as the risk of occurrence of incidents may not be limited to typhoons and rainfall. For example, when a natural disaster is a forest fire or a forest fire, the sequence data generating unit 12 may specify the temperature (and accumulated temperature up to that time) and humidity (and accumulated humidity up to that time) for each region from the weather data in the input data, and specify the severity of each region for each time based on the specified temperature (and accumulated temperature) and humidity (and accumulated humidity). The sequence data generating unit 12 may predict the amount of damage for each region for each time based on the severity of each time and the amount of facilities in the region (e.g., the area of ​​forest).

[0038] Furthermore, the natural disaster risk may be the risk of tree contact with power lines or the risk of spontaneous combustion due to tree withering, such as oak wilt. Tree contact disasters are predicted by predicting tree height and tree growth to predict the amount of damage caused by contact accidents, and resources are secured for each region for pre-cutting (preventive maintenance) or emergency cutting (post-cut maintenance). Furthermore, since tree growth predictions have prediction errors, reserve resources may be secured according to the prediction error in the amount of damage caused by tree growth predictions in preparation for a larger number of contact accidents / post-incident responses than expected. Tree height and tree growth predictions may be made based on photographic data taken by quasi-zenith satellites, drones, or tractors.

[0039] The risk of spontaneous combustion due to tree dieback is measured by measuring the dieback area using photographic data from quasi-zenith satellites, drones, and tractors, and predicting the expansion of that area over time. The necessary resources are secured for felling activities at the dieback area. In addition, differences in prediction results due to differences in photographing methods are treated as prediction errors, and spare resources are secured. (2-2) Estimation of damage forecast error

[0040] The sequence data generating unit 12 predicts the prediction error (prediction error of the damage amount) for each region at each time point in the target period from the input data. The prediction error is predicted, for example, as follows.

[0041] The input data includes sampling error data representing sampling errors of wind speed and rainfall data for each region, which is related to the ensemble prediction data of typhoon tracks. The sequence data generating unit 12 predicts the prediction error of the damage amount for each time for each region, based on the predicted damage amount for each time and the sampling error represented by the sampling error data for the region (for example, by applying the sampling error to the damage amount).

[0042] The method of predicting the prediction error is not limited to this example. For example, the current prediction error may be predicted based on statistics of prediction errors as actual measured values ​​in the past. (3) Resource amount calculation unit 14

[0043] The resource amount calculation unit 14 calculates a resource amount series (resource amount at each time in a target period) according to the damage amount series, based on the damage amount series represented by the series data in the series DB 13 and the resource management DB 4.

[0044] For example, the resource management DB4 includes information representing a plurality of resource types (e.g., workers, heavy machinery, etc.). More specifically, for example, the resource management DB4 may include, for each resource, information representing the relationship with a resource ID (e.g., ID of a worker or equipment), a resource type (e.g., whether the resource is a worker or equipment (e.g., heavy machinery), etc.), the skills possessed by the resource, the location of the resource (a waiting place for the resource), and resource reservation information (information including whether the resource is reserved or not, etc.) for each resource, for example, for each time. The resource amount calculation unit 14 calculates the resource amount for each region for each resource type represented by the resource management DB4 at each time in the target period.

[0045] Take one resource type as an example.

[0046] If the prediction error of the damage amount is zero for all areas at all times from the disaster occurrence time (start time of the target period) to the convergence time (end time of the target period), the resource amount calculation unit 14 may calculate the amount of resources sufficient to repair X(t) (the damage amount X at the time t) for each time in the target period. The damage amount X may be converted into the resource amount by a predetermined method.

[0047] If there is a time when the prediction error of the damage amount is not zero, the resource amount may be calculated as follows. The calculation of the resource amount may be performed periodically. The time interval (period) for calculating the resource amount may be determined based on the time required for the resource to move from the waiting location of the resource, or the time required for the resource to move between regions. For example, the time interval is six hours. Then, one cycle is (t=1,2,3,4,5,6), the next cycle is (t=7,8,9,10,11,12), and the sum of the prediction errors of the damage amount ΔS is calculated for each cycle. In this case, each time in the target period may be any time (for example, the start time) belonging to the cycle. There are multiple regions, Region 1 to Region 9. The prediction error ΔX at time t for Region n is expressed as "ΔXn(t)". ​​In this case, for the next cycle (t=7,8,9,10,11,12), ΔS is as follows. ΔS=ΔX1(7)+ΔX2(7)+···+ΔX9(7) +ΔX1(8)+ΔX2(8)+···+ΔX9(8) +ΔX1(9)+ΔX2(9)+···+ΔX9(9) +ΔX1(10)+ΔX2(10)+···+ΔX9(10) +ΔX1(11)+ΔX2(11)+···+ΔX9(11) +ΔX1(12)+ΔX2(12)+···+ΔX9(12)

[0048] The resource amount calculation unit 14 calculates the value obtained by dividing ΔS by a predetermined value m as the amount of spare resources to be reserved. This is to reserve the amount of resources that may be required according to the total amount of prediction errors. The value of m is a value between 0 and 1, and a user-specified value may be set in a storage device (e.g., RAM 902 or HDD 904) as the value of m. m=0 means that there are no spare resources and the prediction error is considered to be zero. m=1 means that a sufficient amount of resources corresponding to the prediction error is reserved.

[0049] For each of the multiple regions, the amount of resources converted from the amount of damage X at time t may be the amount of resources at time t. Furthermore, the sum of prediction errors for the regions for the cycle (t=7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12) may be calculated as ΔXn(7)+ΔXn(8)+ΔXn(9)+ΔXn(10)+ΔXn(11)+ΔXn(12), and the amount obtained by multiplying this sum by m may be the amount of spare resources for all of the multiple regions. Furthermore, for region n, the amount of spare resources at that time may be calculated from the prediction error for each time. (4) Resource Allocation Department 16

[0050] The resource allocation unit 16 allocates resources at each time in the target period, specifically, creates a work schedule, for example, based on the incident sequence data (sequence of predicted damage amount and prediction error), the calculated resource amount and reserve resource amount sequences, and the resource management DB 4. Since the resource amount and reserve resource amount have been calculated, these schedules may be created. However, the reserve resource is a resource for which it has not been determined whether it will actually be used. Specifically, it has not yet been determined which area the reserve resource will be allocated to, and it is a resource that is reserved until a situation requiring the allocation of the reserve resource is detected. The sequence of predicted damage amount and prediction error is used to optimize the area in which such a reserve resource will be placed on standby.

[0051] For example, the resource management DB4 includes information representing the resource amount and its breakdown (e.g., the amount of resources reserved by the allocation destination area) for each resource type for each region. The resource allocation unit 16 determines the internal resource amount and the external resource amount for each region for each time and by resource type from the resource management DB4 and the resource amount and the reserve resource amount for each region for each time. For each region, the "internal resource amount" is the amount (typically the number) of internal resources, and the "internal resource" is a resource that exists in the internal region (a region that satisfies a predetermined condition (internal region condition) such as being the same region as the region). For each region, the "external resource amount" is the amount (typically the number) of external resources, and the "external resource" is a resource that exists in an external region (a region that satisfies a predetermined condition (external region condition) such as being a region different from the region). For each region, the internal resources for the region are allocated from the internal region, and the external resources for the region are allocated from the external region. The resource management DB4 may include information representing resource constraints for each region and / or for each resource type. For each region and / or each resource type, resource constraints may be, for example, whether or not the resource can be moved outside the region, or whether or not the resource can be taken out.

[0052] The resource allocation unit 16 allocates as much internal resource amount (e.g., unreserved internal resource amount) as possible to the resource amount at each time for each region and each resource type, and allocates the external resource amount to the sum of the insufficient internal resource amount and the reserve resource amount. Note that even if the resource allocation unit 16 performs resource allocation for all regions, if there is a surplus internal resource amount for a certain region, the resource allocation unit 16 may replace the external resource amount for that region with all or a part of the surplus internal resource. According to the example shown in FIG. 6, the code 601 is a series of damage amount, the code 602 is a series of prediction errors of the damage amount, the code 603 represents the external resource amount at a certain time, and the code 604 represents the internal resource amount at the same time. According to the codes 603 and 604, the insufficient internal resource amount is compensated for by the external resource amount.

[0053] A work schedule may be created as a resource allocation, and the work schedule may include, for each region, whether or not an incident is predicted for that region. For a region where an incident is predicted, the work schedule may include, for each time, information representing a set of the time, the amount of internal resources allocated (provided) to that region at that time and their breakdown (internal resource amount for each resource type), the amount of external resources allocated to that region at that time and their breakdown (providing source region and external resource amount for each resource type), and the amount of resources remaining (on standby) in that region at that time (resource amount for each resource type). For a region where an incident is not predicted, the work schedule may include, for each time, information representing a set of the time, and the amount of resources remaining (on standby) in that region at that time (resource amount for each resource type).

[0054] The resource allocation unit 16 may refer to the constraint conditions (e.g., resource constraint conditions) represented by the resource management DB 4 and perform resource allocation (creation of a work schedule) that satisfies the constraint conditions. For example, the resource allocation unit 16 may perform resource allocation by solving a constrained optimization problem that satisfies a target index while satisfying the above-mentioned constraint conditions, using any of the functions exemplified below. For example, the resource allocation unit 16 may perform resource allocation for each region using a model that takes as input the resource amount (and / or damage amount) for each time, the reserve resource amount (and / or prediction error of the damage amount), and the constraint conditions, and outputs the internal resource amount and the external resource amount. -Latent event prediction function using artificial intelligence (AI). -Ensemble error estimation function such as Monte Carlo method. -Data assimilation function for disaster simulation using reports. Mathematical optimization capabilities. Reinforcement learning features. (5) Output control unit 17

[0055] The output control unit 17 controls the output of the created work schedule. Specifically, for example, the output control unit 17 performs at least one of the following (5-1) to (5-3). (5-1) Display on UI device 15

[0056] The output control unit 17 displays the work schedule on the UI device 15. The output control unit 17 may accept approval of the work schedule via the UI device 15, or may accept a change in the work schedule (for example, a change in the allocation of the amount of internal resources and the amount of external resources provided to at least one region where an incident is predicted at a time designated by a user (an operator of the UI device 15)) and change the work schedule. (5-2) Provision to the work planning system 40

[0057] The output control unit 17 transmits data representing the work schedule to the work planning system 40 .

[0058] The work planning system 40 may be a function realized by executing a program such as an application program on an information processing terminal of a user such as a worker. The work planning system 40 creates a work plan based on data representing a work schedule, and displays the created work plan on a screen of an information processing terminal having the work planning system 40. A site supervisor may manually set the necessary work (tasks) on the work planning system 40 side. Data representing the calculation result (one example of a work schedule) by the resource allocation unit 16 may be input to the work planning system 40, and such calculation result (data) may be used to create the work plan. The work plan may be information such as a schedule in which resources allocated by the resource allocation unit 16 are assigned to tasks set on the work planning system 40 side. (5-3) Provision to incident response system 30

[0059] The output control unit 17 transmits a command based on the work schedule to the incident response system 30.

[0060] For example, the output control unit 17 transmits a response command indicating the execution of a work schedule to the incident response system 30. Specifically, for example, the output control unit 17 converts the work schedule from the resource allocation unit 16 into a workflow in a prescribed format, and transmits the conversion result as a response command to the incident response system 30. The incident response system 30 may be a computer system, and responds to an incident by executing a workflow in a prescribed format.

[0061] Although one embodiment has been described above, this is merely an example for explaining the present invention, and the scope of the present invention is not limited to this embodiment. The present invention can be embodied in various other forms. For example, at least a part of the description with reference to Figs. 7 to 9 may be adopted.

[0062] FIG. 7 is a graph showing a step-by-step recovery process when a complex disaster occurs.

[0063] A complex disaster is one in which multiple interrelated disasters occur with a time lag, causing a deterioration in the system condition, such as a gradual deterioration of the installation environment. Note that the horizontal axis of the graph in Figure 7 indicates time, and the vertical axis indicates the system condition. The higher the position of the graph, the better the system condition. Note that one factor in the deterioration of the system condition may be the amount of damage, so high / low system conditions may also correspond to small / large amounts of damage.

[0064] At time t1, the first disaster (e.g., a landslide) of the complex disaster occurs. At this time t1, the effects of the first disaster have not yet spread, and the system state is almost normal.

[0065] At time t2, the system state is slightly degraded from the normal state due to the damage caused by the first disaster. From this time t2, the first restoration work is started by operating the resources reserved in advance.

[0066] At time t3, the damage from the first disaster was restored to a provisionally restored state by the first restoration work. However, at time t3, the second disaster (e.g., internal and external flooding) of the complex disaster occurred.

[0067] At time t4, the system state is lowered from the provisional recovery state due to damage from the second disaster. From this time t4, the second recovery work is started by operating additional spare resources.

[0068] At time t5, the second restoration work restored the damage from the second disaster to a normal state (full restoration state).

[0069] The output control unit 17 may present the countermeasure plan proposed by the resource allocation unit 16 to a countermeasure instructor (e.g., a user of the UI device 15) and may also present the graph of Fig. 7 showing the state of damage restored by the countermeasure plan in chronological order to the countermeasure instructor, for example, via the UI device 15. This allows the countermeasure instructor to understand before the restoration work begins that the countermeasure plan proposed by the resource allocation unit 16 envisages a gradual restoration of the system state in the long term, even if not all resources are input in the short term.

[0070] In this manner, the incident response support system 10 (resource allocation unit 16) of this embodiment allocates allocatable resources registered in the resource management DB 4 in stages, taking into account the occurrence status of incidents of a complex disaster.

[0071] In other words, since resources are limited, when a complex disaster occurs, the resource allocation unit 16 finds a compromise state where the system state does not need to be restored to a normal state, and allocates resources. Furthermore, the resource allocation unit 16 sets the date (priority date) when the system will be restored to the compromise state on the time axis for allocating resources, making it possible to carry out recovery in stages.

[0072] The reservation process of the resource allocation unit 16 takes into consideration the degree of influence (CoF: Consequence of Failure) of a risk on the system state, which will be described later with reference to FIG.

[0073] This allows for quicker incident response than if all incidents in a complex disaster were identified first and then a response plan were developed.

[0074] In addition, the resource allocation unit 16 creates a response plan while leaving spare resources. This makes it possible to avoid a situation where resources run out and become insufficient in the latter half of a complex disaster, compared to a method in which resources are allocated on a first-come, first-served basis at the stage when an incident is selected.

[0075] Hereinafter, with reference to FIG. 8 and FIG. 9, the effects obtained from the incident response support system 10 of this embodiment will be described in detail.

[0076] Risk management has traditionally been considered important. Risk management, which involves controlling risks through risk assessment and risk monitoring, is carried out to prevent the occurrence of incidents. However, even with risk management, it is difficult to reduce the occurrence of incidents to zero, and natural disasters cannot be completely prevented.

[0077] Some incidents, such as a blackout caused by lightning, can spread in an instant and the initial response can be completed within a few seconds by a protective relay system, while other incidents, such as typhoons, floods, and heavy snow, can worsen over a period of hours to days and require an initial response such as emergency maintenance to manually remove foreign objects.

[0078] Therefore, it is important to assume that incidents will occur and, even if an incident does occur, to consider resilience, which limits damage through initial responses. In order to increase resilience, it is important to have the robustness to prevent damage from incidents, the recovery from initial responses when an incident occurs, and the efficiency of recovery.

[0079] Figure 8 is a graph that models the recovery of the system state during the initial response to an incident.

[0080] As in Figure 7, the horizontal axis of the graph in Figure 8 indicates time, and the vertical axis indicates system status. The system status deteriorates when it is affected by an incident, such as when the scope of a power outage expands. In the graph in Figure 8, the degree of deterioration of the system status is indicated in the hatched area.

[0081] At time t1, an incident occurs, the system state deteriorating as a result of the incident (arrow DL from system state L4 to L1).

[0082] During the initial response period T2, the system state is restored to a certain level (arrow RL1 from system state L1 to L3) through initial responses such as automatic control and manual emergency repairs.

[0083] In the restoration activity period T3, restoration activities are carried out to restore the system state to the pre-disaster level (arrow RL2 from system state L1 to L4).

[0084] Additionally, the following parameters are defined for the graph in FIG. - The rate at which functionality declines due to the spread of the effect, α. -Speed ​​of recovery during the initial response period β1 and β2. - Speed ​​of recovery during the initial response period, which is carried out within a few seconds by automatic control such as protective control β1. - The speed of recovery β2, which takes several hours to several days to complete, such as manually changing the system configuration or emergency maintenance. · Speed ​​of recovery during the restoration activities γ.

[0085] FIG. 9 is a graph showing the concept of evaluating the seriousness of a risk.

[0086] This graph expresses the severity of risk by combining the degree of impact that the risk has on the system state (CoF) on the horizontal axis and the probability of risk occurrence (PoF: Probability of Failure) on the vertical axis. In other words, the severity of risk increases each time at least one of the CoF and PoF increases (in the figure, the severity of risk increases in the order of low severity → medium severity → high severity).

[0087] The risk management shown by the arrow RS1 was carried out to assess the impact of risk and reduce the probability of risk occurrence (PoF). On the other hand, the measures incorporating the perspective of resilience shown by the arrow RS2 aim to reduce not only the PoF but also the CoF. It is believed that the CoF can be quantified from the degree of deterioration of the system state, the level of its gradual recovery, and the time required for recovery.

[0088] We believe that responding to incidents is an effective way to reduce CoF, but in order to do so, advance planning and preparation for incidents cannot be neglected.

[0089] Therefore, it is desirable for the resource allocation unit 16 to formulate a plan in advance to prepare for an incident so as to meet at least one of the following indexes as a target. - Mitigating the rate at which the impact of an incident spreads (α) in Figure 8. -Increase the speed of recovery from incidents (β1, β2, γ>0). - Limiting the impact of the incident (shortening the length of the arrow DL).

[0090] The incident response support system 10 of the present embodiment described above provides the following effects. The resource allocation unit 16 selects an incident that will occur in the future and creates a response plan for that incident, so that the incident response system 30 can prevent a shortage of necessary resources and execute an appropriate incident response. The resource allocation unit 16 consolidates multiple series of incidents into a single series and develops a response plan for the single series. This enables the incident response system 30 to prevent a shortage of necessary resources for any of the multiple anticipated series of incidents and to support the execution of appropriate incident responses.

[0091] The above description can be summarized as follows. Note that the following summary may include supplementary explanations and explanations of modifications of the above description.

[0092] The incident response support system 10 includes an interface device that receives input data from an external system 20, a storage device that stores resource management information (e.g., a resource management DB4) including, for each region, information on resources allocated for incident response, and a processor connected to the interface device and the storage device. The processor determines whether an incident is predicted based on the input data from the external system 20, and generates series data of the incident amount and its prediction error for the predicted incident. The processor determines a series of resource amounts based on the series of incident amounts, determines a series of reserve resource amounts based on the series of prediction errors of the incident amount, and creates a work schedule for incident response based on the series of resource amounts, the series of reserve resource amounts, and the resource management information.

[0093] The input data may include at least one of weather data including weather forecast data for each of a plurality of regions and satellite image data including data representing satellite images of the plurality of regions. The incident may be damage caused by a natural disaster. The amount of incident may be the amount of damage caused by a natural disaster.

[0094] The processor may predict the amount of damage for each time in a target period by region based on the input data, and may predict a prediction error, which is the difference between the actual amount of damage and the predicted amount of damage, for each time in the target period. The start time of the target period may be the actual disaster occurrence time or the predicted disaster occurrence time. The end time of the target period may be the convergence time as the predicted end time of the natural disaster, or a time later than the convergence time. The amount of damage for each time by region may be based on the severity of the natural disaster in that region and at that time, and the amount of facilities in that region.

[0095] The processor may predict, for each period, the amount of resources in each region in the period based on the amount of damage in the region and at each of a plurality of times that belong to the period, and may predict the amount of reserve resources in the entire plurality of regions in the period based on the prediction error in the region and at each of a plurality of times that belong to the period. The series of resource amounts may include a predicted resource amount for each region in each period. The series of reserve resource amounts may include a predicted reserve resource amount for each period for the entire plurality of regions.

[0096] The work schedule may be output to a work planning system 40 that creates a work plan based on the work schedule and displays the work plan to workers. The work schedule may include data representing resources and / or backup resources for each time. The work plan may include, for each task set in the work planning system 40, information representing resources and / or backup resources allocated to the task by the work planning system 40 from the work schedule.

[0097] For example, the resource management information may include, for each resource, information indicating the relationship between the resource ID (e.g., ID of a worker or equipment), the resource type (e.g., whether the resource is a worker or equipment (e.g., heavy machinery), etc.), the skills possessed by the resource, the location of the resource (the waiting location of the resource), and the reserve information of the resource (information including whether the resource is reserved or not, etc.) for each time. In the work schedule, the resource and / or the reserve resource for each time may be associated with at least a part of the resource information (e.g., at least a part of the resource ID, the resource type, the skills possessed by the resource, the resource location, and the reserve information of the resource) specified from the resource management information for the time and the resource and / or the reserve resource. In order to create a work plan, for each task (e.g., recovery task) set by a user such as a site supervisor, the work planning system 40 may identify a resource and / or a reserve resource associated with resource information that matches the attributes of the task (e.g., task content, task time, etc.) and assign the resource and / or the reserve resource to the task. [Explanation of symbols]

[0098] 10. Incident response support system

Claims

1. an interface device for receiving input data from an external system; a storage device that stores resource management information including information about resources allocated for incident response for each region; a processor connected to the interface device and the storage device; Equipped with The processor, determining whether an incident is predicted based on input data from the external system; Generate series data of the incident volume and the forecast error of the incident volume for the predicted incidents; A series of resource amounts is determined based on the series of incident amounts, and a series of reserve resource amounts is determined based on the series of prediction errors of the incident amounts; creating a work schedule for responding to an incident based on the series of resource amounts, the series of reserve resource amounts, and the resource management information; Incident response support system.

2. The input data includes at least one of weather data including weather forecast data for each of a plurality of regions, and satellite image data including data representing satellite-captured images of the plurality of regions; The incident is a natural disaster-related injury, The incident amount is the amount of damage caused by the natural disaster. The incident response support system according to claim 1 .

3. The processor, Based on the input data, the amount of damage at each time during the target period is predicted by region; For each time in the target period, a prediction error is predicted, which is the difference between the actual amount of damage and the predicted amount of damage; The start time of the target period is the actual time of the disaster or the predicted time of the disaster, The end time of the target period is a time of convergence as a predicted end time of the natural disaster, or a time later than the predicted convergence time, The amount of damage at each time for each region is based on the severity of the natural disaster in that region and at that time, and the amount of facilities in that region. The incident response support system according to claim 2 .

4. The processor, for each period, predicting the amount of resources for each of the regions in the cycle based on the amount of damage in the region and at each of a plurality of times that belong to the cycle; predicting an amount of spare resources in the plurality of regions in the period based on a prediction error in each of the regions and at each of the plurality of times that belong to the period; the sequence of resource amounts includes a predicted resource amount for each period for each of the regions; the sequence of reserve resource amounts includes a predicted reserve resource amount for each period across the plurality of regions; The incident response support system according to claim 3 .

5. The work schedule is output to a work planning system that creates a work plan based on the work schedule and displays the work plan to workers; the work schedule includes data representing resources and / or reserve resources by time of day; The work plan includes, for each task set in the work planning system, information representing resources and / or reserve resources allocated to the task by the work planning system from the work schedule. The incident response support system according to claim 1 .

6. Based on input data from external systems, determine whether an incident is predicted or not, Generate series data of the incident volume and the forecast error of the incident volume for the predicted incidents; A series of resource amounts is determined based on the series of incident amounts, and a series of reserve resource amounts is determined based on the series of prediction errors of the incident amounts; creating a work schedule for responding to incidents based on the series of resource amounts, the series of reserve resource amounts, and resource management information including, for each region, information on resources allocated for responding to incidents; The present invention relates to an incident response support method that performs the above steps by using a computer.

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