Weather forecast display system and weather forecast display method

Abstract

To provide a weather forecast display system and a weather forecast display method for facilitating utilization of weather forecast result.SOLUTION: A system includes: a server 20 (acquisition part) which acquires prediction results of a plurality of ensemble members constituting ensemble prediction for an object place (dam 40) over a prescribed period; a server 20 (creation part) which creates a heat map M1 showing degrees of the prediction results by coloring, and a server 20 (output part) which outputs a rainfall forecast comparison diagram 100 (weather forecast information) including the heat map M1 to a terminal 30 (predetermined output device) of a person in charge.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 6

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a weather forecast display system and a weather forecast display method. [Background technology]

[0002] Generally, the longer the forecast period, the greater the uncertainty of the weather forecast. In response to this, for example, ensemble forecasts may be used, which assume that there is uncertainty in the forecast, vary the initial values, etc., make multiple numerical forecasts under slightly different conditions, statistically process the forecast results under each condition, and calculate the probability density distribution of the forecast results, thereby showing the overall (long-term) trend.

[0003] For example, Patent Document 1 discloses a system that performs ensemble weather forecasting focusing on the optical thickness of the atmosphere to obtain a predicted value of the amount of power generated by a photovoltaic power generation device together with its reliability based on a probability density distribution. This technology makes it possible to create a more suitable power trading plan by taking into account the uncertainty of the forecast.

[0004] However, the results of ensemble forecasts are often difficult for people other than meteorological experts to understand, making them difficult to use. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0005] [Patent Document 1] JP 2015-167439 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0006] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned circumstances, and the problem it aims to solve is to provide a weather forecast display system and a weather forecast display method that make it easy to utilize the results of weather forecasts. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] The problem to be solved by the present invention has been described above, and the means for solving this problem will now be described.

[0008] That is, in claim 1, the weather forecast system includes an acquisition unit that acquires forecast results of multiple ensemble members that make up an ensemble forecast for a specified period of time for a target location, a creation unit that creates a heat map that shows the degree of each of the multiple forecast results by color, and an output unit that outputs weather forecast information including the heat map to a specified output device.

[0009] In claim 2, in the heat map, the degrees of the multiple prediction results are shown side by side with their time axes aligned.

[0010] In claim 3, the acquisition unit acquires multiple prediction results for each predetermined timing, and the creation unit creates the heat map based on the multiple prediction results for each predetermined timing acquired by the acquisition unit, and the multiple heat maps are displayed with their time axes aligned and arranged in chronological order at the predetermined timing.

[0011] In claim 4, the weather forecast information includes performance values ​​relating to the ensemble forecast, and the performance values ​​are displayed side by side with the time axes of the multiple heat maps aligned with each other.

[0012] In claim 5, the heat map indicates the degree of the prediction result by different shades of color.

[0013] In claim 6, the ensemble forecast is a rainfall forecast.

[0014] In claim 7, the target location includes a dam equipped with a hydroelectric power plant.

[0015] In claim 8, the method includes an acquisition process for acquiring prediction results of multiple ensemble members that make up an ensemble prediction for a specified period of time for a target location, a creation process for creating a heat map that shows the degree of each of the multiple prediction results by color, and an output process for outputting weather forecast information including the heat map to a specified output device. Effect of the Invention

[0016] The present invention has the following advantages.

[0017] The present invention can provide a weather forecast display system and a weather forecast display method that can easily utilize the results of weather forecasts. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0018] [Figure 1] 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a weather forecast display system according to an embodiment of the present invention; [Diagram 2] 4 is a flowchart showing a rainfall forecast display process (weather forecast display method) executed by the server. [Diagram 3] FIG. 13 shows an example of a heat map for a single day. [Figure 4] (a) A first explanatory diagram for explaining the contents of a heat map, and (b) A second explanatory diagram for the same. [Diagram 5] FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram for explaining the contents of a performance value map. [Figure 6] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing a first example of a weather forecast comparison chart displayed on a person in charge terminal. [Figure 7] FIG. 13 shows a second example of a weather forecast comparison chart displayed on the person in charge terminal. [Figure 8] FIG. 13 shows a third example of a weather forecast comparison chart displayed on the person in charge's terminal. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0019] A weather forecast display system 1 according to one embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to FIG.

[0020] The weather forecast display system 1 is for displaying the results of weather forecasts for a given period of time for a target location. A weather forecast is a prediction of the atmospheric state that combines weather-related elements such as temperature, humidity, wind, cloud cover, visibility, rain, snow, and lightning. In this embodiment, the target location is assumed to be a civil engineering structure (dam 40) equipped with a hydroelectric power plant as described below. In this embodiment, the weather forecast is assumed to be a rainfall forecast that predicts the time period when rain will occur and the intensity of rainfall.

[0021] Generally, the functions of a dam include power generation and flood control. In other words, a dam equipped with a hydroelectric power plant can generate electricity by discharging stored water downstream and taking advantage of the large drop in height. In addition, when rainwater or other water flows into the dam due to heavy rain, the discharge volume can be adjusted to store a large amount of water, thereby preventing flood damage downstream.

[0022] When rainwater that has flowed in due to heavy rain is stored in a dam, the amount of stored water increases significantly compared to normal times, so in many cases the water is released quickly (i.e., without going through power generation) in preparation for the next heavy rain. However, if no heavy rain is expected for some time to come, the water can be released slowly (i.e., through power generation) to make effective use of energy without wasting it. Therefore, in order to appropriately manage the discharge of water from a dam, it is necessary to make rainfall forecasts (weather forecasts) over a relatively long period of time (for example, about two weeks).

[0023] However, the longer the forecast period, the greater the uncertainty in weather forecasts.In response to this, it is possible to use ensemble forecasts that assume there is uncertainty in forecasts, make multiple numerical forecasts under slightly different conditions by varying the initial values, etc., and statistically process the forecast results under each condition to calculate the probability density distribution of the forecast results, thereby showing the overall (long-term) trend.

[0024] For example, in the ensemble forecast provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the ensemble forecast is made up of 51 ensemble members, and the results of long-term precipitation forecasts are shown at each specified time. Specifically, as the results of long-term precipitation forecasts, for example, 51 types of forecast calculation results based on the ensemble members are analyzed and organized by a method of displaying them superimposed as cumulative precipitation.

[0025] However, with the above-mentioned methods (displays), people other than meteorological experts often have difficulty understanding the results of rainfall forecasts, such as the period when rainfall will occur, the intensity of rainfall, statistical significance, etc. In other words, there is a problem that on-site personnel in charge of dam discharge management (people other than meteorological experts) cannot utilize the results of rainfall forecasts, making it difficult to manage dam discharge.

[0026] In contrast, the weather forecast display system 1 according to this embodiment displays the results of the rainfall forecast in a different way than in the past. Specifically, the weather forecast display system 1 displays the results of the rainfall forecast in a rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 (see FIG. 6, etc.), which will be described later. Thus, the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 makes it easy for even field personnel (people who are not weather experts) to intuitively understand the results of the rainfall forecast.

[0027] 1, in this embodiment, a weather forecast display system 1 is used by a management company that manages a dam 40. The weather forecast display system 1 mainly includes a weather information providing device 10, a server 20, and a person in charge terminal 30.

[0028] The weather information providing device 10 provides weather information published by the Japan Meteorological Agency to the outside. In the weather information providing device 10, the latest weather information is published, for example, at a fixed time every day (9:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m., etc.). The weather information includes the results of rainfall prediction. The weather information providing device 10 is configured as a cloud server (strictly speaking, a server virtually constructed in a cloud server). The weather information providing device 10 is operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency, a specified weather information provider, etc. The weather information providing device 10 is configured to be able to communicate with external devices via an Internet line. Note that communication with the weather information providing device 10 requires access authority, and only devices having access authority are allowed to communicate.

[0029] The server 20 performs various processes related to the display of weather forecasts. The server 20 has a calculation device capable of executing calculation processes and a storage device in which programs and the like are stored. The server 20 is configured as a cloud server. The server 20 has access authority to the weather information providing device 10 and is configured to be able to communicate with the weather information providing device 10 via an Internet line. In this way, the server 20 can obtain any weather information from the weather information providing device 10. In this embodiment, the server 20 obtains the latest rainfall forecast results for the target location (dam 40) once a day at 9:00 a.m.

[0030] Furthermore, the server 20 performs various processes based on the obtained rainfall prediction results. The processes performed by the server 20 include a process for displaying the results of the rainfall prediction for the dam 40 in a method different from the conventional method (hereinafter referred to as a "rainfall prediction display process"). In the rainfall prediction display process, a rainfall prediction comparison chart 100 (see FIG. 6, etc.) for displaying the results of the rainfall prediction for the dam 40 is created. The rainfall prediction display process will be described in detail later.

[0031] The staff terminal 30 is a terminal used by the on-site staff H of the management company. The staff terminal 30 has a calculation device capable of executing calculation processing, a storage device in which programs and the like are stored, an operation unit operable by the on-site staff H, and a display unit capable of displaying (outputting) predetermined information. The staff terminal 30 is configured, for example, by a smartphone or a personal computer. The staff terminal 30 is configured to be able to communicate with the server 20 via an internet line. A rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 is displayed (output) on the display unit of the staff terminal 30 by the rainfall forecast display process of the server 20.

[0032] The following describes the rainfall forecast display process executed by the server 20 with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG. 2 and FIGS.

[0033] 2 is a flowchart showing a rainfall forecast display process (rainfall forecast display method) executed by the server 20. The rainfall forecast display process is a process for creating a rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 as a result of rainfall forecast and displaying it on the person in charge terminal 30. The rainfall forecast display process is executed periodically at a predetermined timing by the server 20. In this embodiment, the rainfall forecast display process is executed once a day at the timing when the latest weather information is released from the weather information providing device 10 (for example, at 9:00 a.m.). The rainfall forecast display process may be executed in response to an operation on the person in charge terminal 30 by the site person H.

[0034] In the following, for convenience, (visible) explanatory diagrams and the like are used for explanation, however, in the processing of the server 20, other than what is to be displayed (output) on the person in charge terminal 30 (the deliverables), it is not necessary that they be created in a visible state.

[0035] In step S11, the server 20 acquires the latest rainfall prediction result (information) from the weather information providing device 10. Specifically, the server 20 acquires an ensemble prediction for a total of 11 days including the day of the dam 40 as the latest rainfall prediction result, and extracts the prediction results of 51 types of ensemble members constituting the ensemble prediction. Note that the 51 types of ensemble members are each assigned a number for convenience. After the process of step S11, the server 20 executes the process of step S12.

[0036] In step S12, the server 20 creates a heat map M1 based on the latest rainfall prediction result (information) acquired in step S11. The server 20 creates a heat map M1 once a day. The contents of the heat map M1 will be described below with reference to Figs. 3 and 4.

[0037] The heat map M1 shows the results of rainfall prediction (specifically, the predicted level of rainfall) by the shade of color. The heat map M1 is created based on the prediction results of 51 types of ensemble members obtained on the day. As shown in FIG. 3, in the heat map M1, the predicted level of rainfall (i.e., the intensity of rainfall) is shown by the shade of color as described above over a period from approximately the present time (9:00 a.m. on the day) to midnight 10 days later. Note that in this embodiment, the shade of color is expressed by the shade of a single color (blue-based color).

[0038] 4 is an explanatory diagram for explaining the contents of the heat map M1, and the configuration of the heat map M1 is simplified. Specifically, in FIG. 4, six types of ensemble members are used to create the heat map M1. Also, FIG. 4(a) shows only the current day (part of the heat map M1) out of the period from the current day to 10 days later.

[0039] In the explanation using FIG. 4, there are four types of shades of coloring indicating the intensity of rainfall. That is, the predicted rainfall is divided into four ranges (stages) based on the magnitude of the value. Specifically, the range with the highest (very highest) predicted rainfall is shown with the darkest color (hereinafter referred to as "first color C1"), the range with the second highest (fairly highest) rainfall is shown with the second darkest color (hereinafter referred to as "second color C2"), the range with the third highest (not so highest) rainfall is shown with the third darkest color (hereinafter referred to as "third color C3"), and the range with the fourth highest (lowest) rainfall is shown with the fourth darkest (lightest) color (hereinafter referred to as "fourth color C4"). Note that the range with no rainfall is not colored (white). Thus, as shown in FIG. 4(a), the magnitude relationship of the predicted rainfall amounts is expressed as first color C1>second color C2>third color C3>fourth color C4>white.

[0040] As shown in FIG. 4(a), in the heat map M1, the prediction results of all (six types) of ensemble members are arranged in order on the vertical axis. Since the ensemble members are numbered as described above, the prediction results of the ensemble members are arranged in the order of the numbers. The order of the ensemble members is not particularly specified, but once it is determined, it will not be changed. In other words, in the heat map M1 created every day, the six types of ensemble members are arranged in the same order.

[0041] The horizontal axis of the heat map M1 indicates the time from 0:00 to 24:00. In this way, the forecast results (the predicted amount of rainfall) of each ensemble member are arranged side by side with their time axes (phases) aligned (their positions along the horizontal axis are aligned).

[0042] Thus, as shown in FIG. 4(a), in the heat map M1, the forecast results of each ensemble member are shown using shades of color for each hour after 9:00 on the day. For example, in the forecast results of the first ensemble member at the top, the third color C3 is shown from 9:00 to about 15:00, and the second color C2 is shown from then until midnight. That is, according to the forecast results of the first ensemble member, it is shown that the amount of rainfall is not very heavy from 9:00 to about 15:00, and the amount of rainfall becomes moderately heavy from about 15:00 to midnight. Similarly, according to the forecast results of the second ensemble member at the second top, it is shown that the amount of rainfall is low from 9:00 to just before 12:00, then the amount of rainfall becomes moderately heavy until about 21:00, and then the amount of rainfall becomes very heavy until midnight. The forecast results of the other ensemble members are shown in the same manner.

[0043] In Fig. 4(a), only a part of the heat map M1 (for the current day only) has been described, but the following days (from 1 day later to 10 days later) are also created in the same way. Specifically, as shown in Fig. 4(b), the heat map M1 for the current day to 10 days later is arranged from left to right in ascending order of date so that they are consecutive to each other. Thus, as shown in Fig. 3, in the heat map M1, the prediction results for 11 days are arranged in the horizontal axis direction so that the current day, the next day, the day after, etc. are consecutive.

[0044] In this way, the server 20 creates a heat map M1 as shown in Fig. 3 once a day. In the unsimplified heat map M1 shown in Fig. 3, more than the four shades of coloring that indicate the intensity of rainfall are used. The shades of coloring may not be stepped, but may change continuously without steps. The server 20 stores the created heat map M1 in its own storage device.

[0045] According to the heat map M1, even if the forecast results of each ensemble member for a certain time period differ from one another, the overall trend of the forecast results can be understood at a glance by the shade of the color. In other words, the field worker H can understand the statistical amount of future forecast results at a glance by looking at the entire heat map M1, in which the intensity of rainfall is expressed by the shade of the color.

[0046] Specifically, the heat map M1 allows the site worker H to see, for example, changes in the uncertainty of the rainfall forecast and the agreement between the forecasted rainfall and the actual value. Thus, the heat map M1 allows the site worker H to intuitively grasp the results of the rainfall forecast over the next 10 days from the current day. For example, in the period P1 shown in FIG. 3, it can be seen that the overall color is dark and that the dark parts are in phase. In other words, in the period P1, the site worker H can see that the rainfall is predicted to be high and the uncertainty of the forecast is small.

[0047] Also, for example, in the period P2 shown in Fig. 3, the overall coloring is fairly dark, but the phases of the dark parts are not aligned, and the variation can be seen. That is, in the period P2, the site worker H can see that the amount of rainfall is predicted to be fairly high, but the prediction is highly uncertain. After the process of step S12, the server 20 executes the process of step S13.

[0048] In step S13, the server 20 creates an actual value map M2. The actual value map M2 indicates actual values ​​of rainfall in the dam 40 over a predetermined period in the past. That is, in this embodiment, the actual value is a value related to an unamble prediction (rainfall prediction), and means the amount of rain that actually fell. First, the server 20 acquires actual values ​​of rainfall in the dam 40 for the most recent 24 hours by communicating with the weather information providing device 10. The server 20 stores the acquired actual values ​​in its own storage device. That is, the server 20 stores actual values ​​of rainfall in the dam 40 over a predetermined period in the past. Note that the method of acquiring the actual values ​​of rainfall is not limited to the method described above. For example, the server 20 may calculate the actual values ​​of rainfall by itself based on predetermined information.

[0049] Fig. 5 is an explanatory diagram for explaining the contents of the performance value map M2. In Fig. 5, the configuration of the performance value map M2 is simplified, similar to the explanatory diagram for explaining the contents of the heat map M1 shown in Fig. 4. Fig. 5 also shows the performance value map M2 for one day (a part of the performance value map M2).

[0050] As shown in FIG. 5 and FIG. 6, the actual value map M2 has a format that is substantially the same as that of the heat map M1. Specifically, the size of the vertical axis of the actual value map M2 is formed to be substantially the same as that of the heat map M1. The horizontal axis of the actual value map M2 is formed so that the time axis (phase) coincides with that of the horizontal axis of the heat map M1. In the actual value map M2, the actual value of the amount of rainfall is displayed using a color shade that indicates the intensity of rainfall, as in the heat map M1. In the actual value map M2, more detailed values ​​of the amount of rainfall are shown by a bar graph superimposed on the above-mentioned color shade. In addition, the bar graph is formed so that, for example, only the frame portion stands out and the inner portion does not stand out, so as not to obstruct the visibility of the color shade. After the process of step S13, the server 20 executes the process of step S14.

[0051] In step S14, the server 20 creates a rainfall prediction comparison chart 100. The contents of the rainfall prediction comparison chart 100 will be described below with reference to FIGS.

[0052] In the rainfall prediction comparison diagram 100, a heat map M1 created on the current day, a heat map M1 created in the past, and a performance value map M2 are arranged side by side. As shown in Fig. 6 and Fig. 7, in this embodiment, the heat map M1 for the past 10 days is used as the heat map M1 created in the past. That is, in this embodiment, the rainfall prediction comparison diagram 100 displays the heat maps M1 for the current day and the past 10 days, for a total of 11 days.

[0053] In the rainfall prediction comparison diagram 100, the heat maps M11 for 11 days are arranged from top to bottom in the order of the oldest creation date. That is, the heat maps M11 for 11 days are arranged in chronological order according to the timing of the prediction. The heat maps M1 for 11 days are arranged in close contact with each other in the vertical axis direction. The heat maps M1 for 11 days are also arranged so that their time axes (phases) are aligned with each other (their positions in the horizontal axis direction are aligned with each other). In this way, in the rainfall prediction comparison diagram 100, the prediction results for a total of 21 days are arranged in the horizontal axis direction, from the oldest prediction result from 10 days ago to the latest prediction result from 10 days into the future.

[0054] In addition, below the bottom row of the 11-day heat map M1 (i.e., the heat map M1 for the current day), the performance value map M2 is arranged. The performance value map M2 is arranged next to the 11-day heat map M1 with their time axes (phases) aligned.

[0055] In this way, the server 20 creates a rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 as shown in Figures 6 and 7 once a day. According to the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100, even if the forecast results of each heat map M1 for a certain time period are different from each other, the overall trend of the forecast results can be seen at a glance by the shade of the color. In other words, the field staff H can understand the statistical amount of future forecast results at a glance by looking at the entire rainfall forecast comparison chart 100, in which the intensity of rainfall is expressed by the shade of the color.

[0056] Specifically, the site worker H can view, for example, changes in the uncertainty of the rainfall prediction and the agreement between the predicted rainfall and the actual value, etc., by using the rainfall prediction comparison diagram 100. For example, in the first example of the rainfall prediction comparison diagram 100 shown in Fig. 6, the site worker H can easily understand that the occurrence of heavy rain in period P11 is predicted about 5 days in advance. Also, for example, in the second example of the rainfall prediction comparison diagram 100 shown in Fig. 7, the site worker H can easily understand that the occurrence of heavy rain in period P12 is predicted about 6 days in advance.

[0057] 6 and 7, the site worker H can easily understand the accuracy and tendency of the prediction result by comparing the result of the rainfall prediction with the actual rainfall value. In this way, the rainfall prediction comparison chart 100 can visualize the degree of variation in the prediction result. After the process of step S14, the server 20 executes the process of step S15.

[0058] In step S15, the server 20 transmits the rainfall forecast comparison diagram 100 created in step S14 to the person in charge terminal 30. In this way, the site person H can visually confirm the rainfall forecast comparison diagram 100 by displaying the received rainfall forecast comparison diagram 100 on the display unit. That is, the site person H can intuitively understand the results of the rainfall forecast from the rainfall forecast comparison diagram 100. In this way, the site person H can utilize the results of the rainfall forecast, and can therefore appropriately manage the discharge of the dam 40.

[0059] As described above, in the weather forecast display system 1 according to one embodiment of the present invention, A server 20 (acquisition unit) that acquires prediction results of a plurality of ensemble members that constitute an ensemble prediction over a predetermined period of time for a target location (dam 40); A server (creator) that creates a heat map (M1) that indicates the degree of each of the prediction results by color; A server 20 (output unit) that outputs a rainfall prediction comparison chart 100 (weather prediction information) including the heat map M1 to a person in charge terminal 30 (a specified output device); It is equipped with the following.

[0060] In addition, in a weather forecast display method according to an embodiment of the present invention, An acquisition step (step S11 shown in FIG. 2) of acquiring prediction results of a plurality of ensemble members constituting an ensemble prediction for a predetermined period of time for a target location (dam 40); A server 20 that creates a heat map M1 that indicates the degree of each of the prediction results by color (step S12 shown in FIG. 2 ); A server 20 (step S15 shown in FIG. 2) that outputs a rainfall prediction comparison chart 100 (weather prediction information) including the heat map M1 to a person in charge terminal 30 (a predetermined output device); It is equipped with the following.

[0061] This configuration makes it easier to utilize the results of weather forecasts. That is, the forecast results of multiple ensemble members obtained from the ensemble forecast can be visualized so that on-site worker H can easily understand the expected time periods for heavy rainfall to occur, their statistical positioning, and the time periods when the next rainfall is expected. It is also shown that the forecast uncertainty decreases as the time period when rainfall is expected approaches. In other words, the change in forecast uncertainty can be visualized.

[0062] In addition, in the weather forecast display system 1, In the heat map M1, the degrees of the multiple prediction results are shown lined up with their time axes aligned.

[0063] With this configuration, the prediction results can be visualized and represented in a manner that is easy for the site staff H to understand by the overall tendency of the shade of color of the multiple results (the prediction results of the ensemble members) in the heat map M1.

[0064] In addition, in the weather forecast display system 1, The server 20 (acquisition unit) acquires a plurality of the prediction results at each predetermined timing, The creation unit creates the heat map M1 based on the plurality of prediction results for each of the predetermined timings acquired by the server 20 (acquisition unit), The plurality of heat maps M1 are displayed with their time axes aligned with one another and arranged in chronological order at the predetermined timing.

[0065] With this configuration, the prediction results can be visualized and displayed in a manner that is easy for the field staff H to understand by the overall coloring shade tendency of the multiple heat maps M1 in the rainfall prediction comparison diagram 100.

[0066] In addition, in the weather forecast display system 1, The weather forecast information includes a performance value regarding the ensemble forecast, The performance values ​​are displayed in a line with the multiple heat maps M1 with their time axes aligned with each other.

[0067] With this configuration, for example, it is possible to view at a glance changes in the uncertainty of rainfall predictions and the agreement between predicted rainfall and its actual value.

[0068] With this configuration, it is possible to easily utilize the results of weather forecasts using, for example, 51 types of ensemble members provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

[0069] In addition, in the weather forecast display system 1, The heat map M1 is The degree of the prediction result is indicated by the shade of color.

[0070] With this configuration, the results of weather forecasts can be more efficiently utilized by using the shade of color.

[0071] In addition, in the weather forecast display system 1, The ensemble forecast is a rainfall forecast.

[0072] This configuration makes it easier to utilize the results of rainfall prediction.

[0073] In addition, in the weather forecast display system 1, The target location (dam 40) includes a dam 40 equipped with a hydroelectric power plant.

[0074] With this configuration, discharge management of the dam 40 can be carried out appropriately.

[0075] The rainfall prediction comparison diagram 100 according to this embodiment is one embodiment of weather prediction information according to the present invention. Moreover, the person in charge terminal 30 according to this embodiment is one form of the output unit according to the present invention.

[0076] Although the embodiment of the present invention has been described above, the present invention is not limited to the above configuration, and various modifications are possible within the scope of the invention described in the claims.

[0077] For example, in the present embodiment, the weather forecast display system 1 is used to predict rainfall, but is not limited to this. The weather forecast display system 1 can be used to predict various weather conditions, such as snowfall and solar radiation.

[0078] In the present embodiment, the dam 40 is taken as an example of the target location, but the target location is not limited to this. Any location, such as an urban area or a mountain area, can be the target location.

[0079] In this embodiment, the rainfall forecast display process (weather forecast display method) is executed by the server 20, but it may be executed by another server (control device). For example, the rainfall forecast display process may be executed by the person in charge terminal 30, or may be executed by a plurality of different control devices. The contents and procedures of the rainfall forecast display process may be changed as desired. The rainfall forecast display process (weather forecast display method) may be executed in part or in whole by a person, not by the server 20.

[0080] For example, in this embodiment, the predetermined output device is configured to be displayed on the person in charge terminal 30 (more specifically, the display unit of the person in charge terminal 30), but this is not limiting. That is, the predetermined output device may be a device that outputs (prints out) written documents, rather than video or audio. Similarly, the form of output is not limited to display, and various forms can be adopted as long as the on-site person in charge H can recognize it.

[0081] Furthermore, in this embodiment, the intensity of rainfall is expressed by the shade of a single color (same color family), but it may be expressed by a gradation of multiple colors (including other colors family).

[0082] Although the rainfall prediction comparison chart 100 has been given as an example of weather forecast information according to the present invention, the present invention is not limited to this. As weather forecast information, for example, only the heat map M1 (see FIG. 3) for the current day may be provided, and it is not necessary to provide the heat map M1 created in the past. Similarly, it is not necessary to provide the actual rainfall value (actual value map M2). Also, the heat map M1 does not have to be created once a day, but can be created any number of times at any timing.

[0083] In this embodiment, the rainfall prediction comparison diagram 100 uses the heat map M1 for the past 10 days, but the number of past days can be selected arbitrarily. For example, as in the third example of the rainfall prediction comparison diagram 100 shown in Fig. 8, the heat map M1 for the past 18 days may be used. As in the third example of the rainfall prediction comparison diagram 100, the heat map M1 can use the prediction results of the ensemble members over an arbitrary period (for example, a total of 19 days including the current day) instead of a total of 11 days including the current day.

[0084] Thus, for example, in the third example of the rainfall prediction comparison diagram 100 shown in FIG. 8, in the period P21, the variance in prediction is very large from 18 days to 12 days in advance, and it is difficult to grasp whether or not rain will fall. In addition, in the period P22, the uncertainty of the prediction is large from 11 days to 6 days in advance, but it is possible to grasp whether or not rain will fall. In addition, in the period P23, the uncertainty of the prediction is small from 5 days to 1 day in advance, and it is possible to grasp heavy rain in advance. That is, in the third example of the rainfall prediction comparison diagram 100 (an example in which the period is longer), it is possible to obtain highly accurate prediction information as the time approaches the present time, and it is possible to obtain rough prediction information, although the accuracy is lower as the time moves away from the present time. In this way, the change in the uncertainty of the prediction can be visualized and expressed. [Explanation of symbols]

[0085] 1. Weather Forecast Display System 20 Servers 30 Personnel terminal 40 Dam 100 Rainfall forecast comparison chart

Claims

1. An acquisition unit that acquires prediction results of a plurality of ensemble members that constitute an ensemble prediction for a predetermined period of time for a target location; A creating unit that creates a heat map that indicates the degree of each of the plurality of prediction results by coloring; an output unit that outputs weather forecast information including the heat map to a predetermined output device; Equipped with Weather forecast display system.

2. In the heat map, the degrees of the multiple prediction results are shown side by side with their time axes aligned. The weather forecast display system according to claim 1 .

3. The acquisition unit acquires a plurality of the prediction results at each predetermined timing, The creation unit creates the heat map based on the plurality of prediction results for each of the predetermined timings acquired by the acquisition unit, The plurality of heat maps are displayed in a state where the time axes of the heat maps are aligned with each other and arranged in a time series of the predetermined timing. The weather forecast display system according to claim 2 .

4. The weather forecast information includes a performance value regarding the ensemble forecast, The performance values ​​are displayed in a line with the plurality of heat maps, with their time axes aligned with each other. The weather forecast display system according to claim 3 .

5. The heat map may include: The degree of the prediction result is indicated by the shade of color. The weather forecast display system according to claim 1 .

6. The ensemble forecast is a rainfall forecast. The weather forecast display system according to claim 1 .

7. The target location includes a dam with a hydroelectric power plant; The weather forecast display system according to claim 1 .

8. An acquisition step of acquiring prediction results of a plurality of ensemble members constituting an ensemble prediction for a predetermined period of time for a target location; A creation step of creating a heat map in which the degree of each of the multiple prediction results is indicated by color; an output step of outputting weather forecast information including the heat map to a predetermined output device; Equipped with How weather forecasts are displayed.

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