Power generation system

Abstract

To suppress the decline in the amount of electricity produced by power generation using natural energy sources in combination.SOLUTION: A power generation system includes determination means for determining the power generation amount of a stable power generation device as a normal power generation amount, judgment means for judging whether the power generation amount of a natural power generation device during a planned power generation period is less than a planned value, and control means for controlling the stable power generation device so that the power generation amount of the stable power generation device becomes the normal power generation amount determined by the determination means when the judgment means judges that the power generation amount is less, so that at least a part of the power the amount of which is obtained by subtracting the power generation amount of the natural power generation device from the planned value can be generated. The normal power generation amount is less than the stable power generation amount, which is the amount obtained by subtracting the amount obtained by subtracting the amount of actual power generation in the past from the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device, from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device can generate, and the past actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device is less than the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a power generation system.

Background Art

[0002] There is a power generation system including a power generation facility that generates power using natural energy such as sunlight and a power generation facility that generates power with little influence of climate such as thermal power generation.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0003]

Patent Document 1

Patent Document 2

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] However, power generation using natural energy is easily affected by the natural environment such as climate. As a result, the amount of power generated by the entire power generation system may decrease. More specifically, for example, the amount of power generated by the entire power generation system may decrease due to the influence of the natural environment below the planned value of the previous day.

[0005] In view of the above circumstances, an object of the present invention is to provide a technique for suppressing a decrease in the amount of power generated by power generation that combines power generation using natural energy.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0006] One aspect of the present invention is a power generation system including a natural power generation device that generates electricity using natural energy and a stable power generation device that generates electricity more stably than the natural power generation device. The power generation amount of the stable power generation device is determined to be a normal power generation amount that is less than the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device can generate, before the start of a power generation scheduled period, which is a period during which power generation is performed by the natural power generation device and the stable power generation device. There is a determination means, a determination means for determining whether or not the power generation amount of the natural power generation device in the power generation scheduled period is less than a planned value, and when the determination means determines that it is less, at least a part of the power, which is an amount obtained by subtracting the power generation amount of the natural power generation device from the planned value, Control means for controlling the stable power generation device so that the power generation amount of the stable power generation device becomes the normal power generation amount determined by the determination means. The normal power generation amount is less than the stable power generation amount, which is an amount obtained by subtracting, from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device can generate, an amount obtained by subtracting, from the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device, the past actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device over a period longer than the power generation scheduled period. The past actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device is less than the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device. This is a power generation system.

Effect of the Invention

[0007] According to the present invention, it is possible to suppress a decrease in the amount of electric power generated by power generation that uses natural energy in combination.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0008]

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Embodiments for Carrying Out the Invention

[0009] (Embodiment) FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram for explaining the outline of the power generation system 100 of the embodiment. The power generation system 100 includes a natural power generation facility 1, a stable power generation facility 2, a power generation control device 3, and a battery 4. Note that the power generation system 100 does not necessarily need to include the battery 4. For the sake of simplicity in the following description, the case where the power generation system 100 includes the battery 4 will be taken as an example to explain the power generation system 100.

[0010] The natural power generation facility 1 is a power generation facility including a natural power generation device 11, a sensor 12, and a communication device 13. The natural power generation device 11 generates electricity using natural energy such as solar power generation or wind power generation. The sensor 12 acquires information indicating the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 by measurement. The communication device 13 is communicably connected to the power generation control device 3 and transmits information indicating the power generation amount acquired by the sensor 12 (hereinafter referred to as "natural power generation amount information") to the power generation control device 3. Instructions for operations such as the start or end of power generation of the natural power generation device 11 may be transmitted from the power generation control device 3 via the communication device 13. In this way, the natural power generation facility 1 is communicably connected to the power generation control device 3 via the communication device 13.

[0011] Since the natural power generation device 11 generates electricity using natural energy, the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 at each time depends on the state of the natural environment such as the climate. The electricity generated by the natural power generation device 11 is supplied to an external power grid.

[0012] The stable power generation facility 2 is a power generation facility including a stable power generation device 21 and a communication device 22. The stable power generation device 21 generates electricity that is less dependent on the state of the natural environment such as thermal power generation or biomass power generation. The communication device 22 is communicably connected to the power generation control device 3. The operation of the stable power generation device 21 is controlled by the power generation control device 3 via the communication device 22. In this way, the stable power generation facility 2 is communicably connected to the power generation control device 3 via the communication device 22. Note that being less dependent on the state of the natural environment means that the influence of the state of the natural environment on the power generation amount is relatively smaller than the influence of the state of the natural environment on the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11. Therefore, the stable power generation device 21 is a device that generates electricity more stably than the natural power generation device 11.

[0013] The electricity generated by the stable power generation device 21 is supplied to an external power grid. The stable power generation facility 2 is, for example, a thermal power generation facility. The stable power generation facility 2 is, for example, a waste treatment facility. The stable power generation facility 2 may be, for example, a biomass power generation facility. The stable power generation device 21 is, for example, a device that performs geothermal power generation.

[0014] The power generation control device 3 controls the operation of the power generation system 100. More specifically, the power generation control device 3 controls, for example, the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21. When the power generation system 100 includes the battery 4, the power generation control device 3 controls the power output from the battery 4. The battery 4 is a battery capable of outputting power and is a battery whose operation is controlled by the power generation control device 3. The power generation control device 3 controls the battery 4, specifically, controls the on and off states of the energization state of the battery 4.

[0015] The power generation control device 3 performs preprocessing in advance before the start of the power generation scheduled period. The preprocessing is a process of estimating the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 based on at least information indicating the state of the natural environment (hereinafter referred to as "natural environment information"). The power generation scheduled period is a period in which power generation by the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21 is scheduled. By executing the preprocessing, the power generation control device 3 obtains an estimation result of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 (hereinafter referred to as "the determined power generation estimation amount"). Also, by executing the preprocessing, the power generation control device 3 estimates the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the determined power generation estimation amount.

[0016] The actual amount means the amount obtained by measurement by the sensor 12 during the power generation scheduled period, rather than the amount estimated by the power generation control device 3 before the start of the power generation scheduled period. Hereinafter, the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 during the power generation scheduled period is referred to as the actual natural power generation amount. The power generation amount acquired by the sensor 12 is the actual natural power generation amount. Therefore, the content indicated by the natural power generation amount information is the actual natural power generation amount.

[0017] Also, by executing the preprocessing, the power generation control device 3 determines the amount of power (hereinafter referred to as "normal power generation amount") to be generated by the stable power generation device 21 until a situation occurs where the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is less than the determined power generation estimation amount. The normal power generation amount satisfies either one or both of the condition that it is less than the maximum amount of power that the stable power generation device 21 can generate and the condition that it is less than the rated amount of power that the stable power generation device 21 can generate.

[0018] During the power generation scheduled period, the power generation control device 3 executes power generation control processing. The power generation control processing is a process of causing the stable power generation device 21 to generate power at a normal power generation amount until a situation occurs where the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is less than the to-be-determined power generation estimation amount, based on the natural power generation amount information.

[0019] In this way, the to-be-determined power generation estimation amount is a reference amount for changing the operation of the stable power generation device 21. Therefore, the to-be-determined power generation estimation amount is a planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 so as not to change the operation of the stable power generation device 21.

[0020] More specifically, the planned value is an amount estimated by the power generation control device 3 and is an amount for which power generation is scheduled during the power generation scheduled period before the start of the power generation scheduled period. The to-be-determined power generation estimation amount is a kind of planned value. More specifically, the to-be-determined power generation estimation amount is a planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11.

[0021] Also, since the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 has been reduced in advance in this way, the stable power generation device 21 can increase the power generation amount so as to reduce the shortage when the actual natural power generation amount does not reach the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11. That is, the stable power generation device 21 can generate power so as to reduce the shortage when the actual natural power generation amount does not reach the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11. Therefore, when the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is less than the planned value during the power generation scheduled period, the power generation control device 3 increases the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21. In this way, the power generation control device 3 suppresses a decrease in the amount of power generated by the power generation system 100.

[0022] Also, the power generation control device 3 executes scheduled information output processing. The scheduled information output processing is a process of outputting information (hereinafter referred to as "scheduled information") obtained at a timing before the start of the power generation scheduled period and satisfying a predetermined condition among the information obtained by the preprocessing to a predetermined output destination before the start of the power generation scheduled period. The scheduled information is, for example, information indicating the sum of the to-be-determined power generation estimation amount and the normal power generation amount. The scheduled information may indicate the normal power generation amount.

[0023] The predetermined output destination is, for example, a predetermined organization that manages power. The predetermined organization that manages power is, for example, a power wide-area operation promotion institution. The timing that satisfies the predetermined conditions is specifically the timing determined by the output destination of the schedule information. The timing that satisfies the predetermined conditions is, for example, the day before the power generation scheduled period. The schedule information submitted to the power wide-area operation promotion institution is submitted, for example, as the previous day's plan.

[0024] The schedule information output process may be executed before all of the preprocessing is completed. The schedule information output process may be executed, for example, after the first power generation schedule process described later is executed on the day before the start of the power generation scheduled period. In such a case, in the schedule information output process, the result obtained in the first power generation schedule process is output as schedule information.

[0025] <More specific explanation using an example> Hereinafter, with reference to FIGS. 2 to 12 in addition to FIG. 1, an example of such a power generation control device 3 will be described in more detail.

[0026] The power generation control device 3 executes a first power generation schedule process, a second power generation schedule process, a schedule determination process, and a schedule information output process. The first power generation schedule process, the second power generation schedule process, and the schedule determination process are examples of processes executed in preprocessing. First, the first power generation schedule process will be described.

[0027] The first power generation schedule process includes a first natural power generation state estimation process and a first stable power generation candidate amount determination process. The first natural power generation state estimation process includes a first power generation estimation amount estimation process and a first difference estimation amount estimation process.

[0028] The first power generation estimation amount estimation process is a process of estimating the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 at each time in the power generation scheduled period based on the first estimation factor information described later. Hereinafter, the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 estimated by the execution of the first power generation estimation amount estimation process, which is the power generation amount at each time in the power generation scheduled period, is referred to as the first power generation estimation amount.

[0029] The power generation scheduled period is, for example, the day after the day when the first power generation scheduling process is executed. The power generation scheduled period may be, for example, one week after the day when the first power generation scheduling process is executed.

[0030] The first difference estimation amount estimation process is a process of estimating the first difference estimation amount at each time in the power generation scheduled period based on the first estimation factor information. The first difference estimation amount is an amount indicating the difference between the estimated value of the actual natural power generation amount and the first power generation estimation amount, and is the amount at each time in the power generation scheduled period. The first difference estimation amount is indicated, for example, by the absolute value of the difference between the estimated value of the actual natural power generation amount and the first power generation estimation amount. The first difference estimation amount may be indicated, for example, by the degree of dispersion of the power generation amount distribution. In this case, the first power generation estimation amount is a representative value of the power generation amount.

[0031] The first stable power generation candidate amount determination process is a process of determining the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 in the power generation scheduled period based on the first power generation estimation amount and the first difference estimation amount. More specifically, the first stable power generation candidate amount determination process is a process of determining the first stable power generation candidate amount based on the estimation result of the first natural power generation state estimation process. The first stable power generation candidate amount is an amount obtained by subtracting the first difference estimation amount from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate.

[0032] The first estimation factor information is information used for estimating the first power generation estimation amount and the first difference estimation amount, and is information including at least the first natural environment information. The first natural environment information is an example of natural environment information.

[0033] The first natural environment information is information indicating either one or both of the state of the natural environment at a timing that satisfies a predetermined first timing condition and the estimated result of the state of the natural environment during the power generation scheduled period. The first timing condition includes the condition of being before the start time of the power generation scheduled period. The state of the natural environment may be indicated by, for example, temperature, solar radiation amount, cloud amount, or information representing a season. The state of the natural environment may be indicated by, for example, the altitude or angle of the sun. That is, the information indicating the state of the natural environment may include, for example, temperature, solar radiation amount, cloud amount, information representing a season, or information indicating the altitude or angle of the sun. The information indicating the state of the natural environment may include, for example, time. The state of the natural environment may be, for example, the temperature for each time, the solar radiation amount for each time, the cloud amount for each time, or the altitude or angle of the sun for each time. The information indicating the state of the natural environment may include, for example, the time of sunrise or sunset. The information indicating the state of the natural environment may include, for example, the sunshine duration of a day.

[0034] The first timing condition is, for example, the condition of being the day before the start day of the power generation scheduled period. The first timing condition may be, for example, the condition of being the day one week before the start day of the power generation scheduled period.

[0035] Therefore, the first natural environment information is, for example, information indicating the state of the natural environment during the power generation scheduled period. The information indicating the state of the natural environment during the power generation scheduled period is, for example, the estimated result of the weather during the power generation scheduled period announced by an organization that estimates the weather such as the Meteorological Agency. The first natural environment information may be, for example, information indicating the season of the power generation scheduled period such as whether the power generation scheduled period is in summer or winter. The first natural environment information may include, for example, information indicating the state of the natural environment immediately before the execution of the first power generation scheduling process.

[0036] Hereinafter, for the sake of simplicity of explanation, the power generation system 100 will be described by taking as an example the case where the first natural environment information includes information indicating whether the power generation scheduled period is in summer. Note that in summer, since the variation of the intensity of sunlight in the time axis direction is larger than that in other seasons, the variation of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 in the time axis direction is larger than that in other seasons. A large variation means that the degree of dispersion of the distribution of the power generation amount is large.

[0037] As described above, the first power generation scheduling process is a process of estimating the first power generation estimated amount and the first difference estimated amount and determining the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 during the power generation scheduled period based on the first estimation factor information.

[0038] More specifically, the first natural power generation state estimation process is a process of estimating the first power generation estimated amount and the first difference estimated amount based on the first estimation factor information by using the first relationship information obtained in advance.

[0039] The first relationship information includes information indicating the relationship between the content indicated by the first natural environment information and the time series of the actual natural power generation amount during the power generation scheduled period (hereinafter referred to as "first power generation estimated amount relationship information"). The first relationship information includes information indicating the relationship between the content indicated by the first natural environment information and the time series of the difference between the power generation amount at each time indicated by the first power generation estimated amount relationship information and the estimated value of the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the power generation scheduled period (hereinafter referred to as "first difference estimated amount relationship information"). Note that the power generation amount at each time indicated by the first power generation estimated amount relationship information is pre-obtained prior information, and the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the power generation scheduled period is the actual power generation amount. Therefore, the power generation amount at each time indicated by the first power generation estimated amount relationship information may be information obtained by a mathematical model such as simulation. On the other hand, the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the power generation scheduled period needs to be a measured value rather than information obtained by a mathematical model.

[0040] FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram for explaining the first difference estimation amount in the embodiment. The horizontal axis in FIG. 2 represents the time from 3:00 am to 9:00 pm of a day. The vertical axis in FIG. 2 represents the power generation amount. FIG. 2 shows an example of each of the first power generation estimation amount and the first power generation difference estimation amount. FIG. 2 also shows the power generation actual results. The first power generation difference estimation amount is obtained, for example, as a prediction interval range of regression analysis. Note that the power generation target curve described in FIG. 2 is an example of the first power generation estimation amount. Note that the prediction interval range indicates "in which range it is predicted" for the future predicted value.

[0041] The first relationship information is, for example, a mathematical model obtained in advance by a machine learning method, and is a mathematical model showing the relationship between the content indicated by the first natural environment information and the representative value and the spread of the power generation amount distribution of the natural power generation device 11 in each divided period that divides the power generation prediction period.

[0042] The machine learning method used to obtain the first relationship information is, for example, regression analysis. The machine learning method used to obtain the first relationship information may be, for example, random forest.

[0043] The first power generation estimation amount relationship information may be, for example, a relational database showing the relationship between the content indicated by the first natural environment information and the time series of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 in the power generation prediction period. Further, the first difference estimation amount relationship information may be, for example, a relational database showing the relationship between the content indicated by the first natural environment information and the time series of the difference between the power generation amount at each time indicated by the first power generation estimation amount relationship information and the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 at each time in the power generation prediction period. Subsequently, the second power generation prediction process will be described.

[0044] The second power generation prediction process includes a second natural power generation state estimation process and a second stable power generation candidate amount determination process. The second natural power generation state estimation process includes a second power generation estimation amount estimation process and a second difference estimation amount estimation process.

[0045] The second power generation estimation amount estimation process is a process for estimating the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 at each time during the power generation prediction period based on second estimation factor information described later. Hereinafter, the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 estimated by executing the second power generation estimation amount estimation process, which is the power generation amount at each time during the power generation prediction period, is referred to as the second power generation estimation amount.

[0046] The second difference estimation amount estimation process is a process for estimating the second difference estimation amount at each time during the power generation prediction period based on the second estimation factor information. The second difference estimation amount is an amount indicating the difference between the estimated value of the actual natural power generation amount and the second power generation estimation amount, and is the amount at each time during the power generation prediction period. The second difference estimation amount is, for example, indicated by the absolute value of the difference between the estimated value of the actual natural power generation amount and the second power generation estimation amount. The second difference estimation amount may be indicated, for example, by the degree of dispersion of the distribution of the power generation amount. In this case, the second power generation estimation amount is a representative value of the power generation amount.

[0047] The second stable power generation candidate amount determination process is a process for determining the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 during the power generation prediction period based on the second power generation estimation amount and the second difference estimation amount. More specifically, the second stable power generation candidate amount determination process is a process for determining the second stable power generation candidate amount based on the estimation result of the second natural power generation state estimation process. The second stable power generation candidate amount is an amount obtained by subtracting the second difference estimation amount from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate.

[0048] The second estimation factor information is information used for estimating the second power generation estimation amount and the second difference estimation amount, and is information including at least the second natural environment information. The second natural environment information is an example of the natural environment information.

[0049] The second natural environment information is information indicating the state of the natural environment at a timing that satisfies a predetermined second timing condition. The second timing condition includes the condition that it is before the start time of the power generation scheduled period and closer to the start time of the power generation scheduled period than the timing that satisfies the first timing condition. The state of the natural environment may be indicated by, for example, the temperature, the solar radiation amount, the cloud amount, or information representing the season. That is, the information indicating the state of the natural environment may include, for example, the temperature, the solar radiation amount, the cloud amount, or information representing the season.

[0050] The second timing condition is, for example, the condition of one hour before the start time of the power generation scheduled period. The second timing condition may be, for example, the condition of the time before the start of the day of the power generation scheduled period. The time before the start of the day of the power generation scheduled period is, for example, the time within the period from 6:00 am to 8:00 am.

[0051] Hereinafter, for the sake of simplicity of explanation, a case where the second timing condition is the condition of one hour before the start time of the power generation scheduled period and the second natural environment information indicates the season, the solar radiation amount, and the cloud amount at the timing that satisfies the second timing condition will be taken as an example to explain the power generation system 100.

[0052] More specifically, the second natural power generation state estimation process is a process of estimating the second power generation estimation amount and the second difference estimation amount based on the second estimation factor information by using the previously obtained second relationship information.

[0053] The second relationship information includes information indicating the relationship between the content indicated by the second natural environment information and the time series of the actual natural power generation amount during the power generation scheduled period (hereinafter referred to as "second power generation estimation relationship information"). The second relationship information includes information indicating the relationship between the content indicated by the second natural environment information and the time series of the difference between the power generation amount at each time indicated by the second power generation estimation relationship information and the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the power generation scheduled period (hereinafter referred to as "second difference estimation relationship information"). Note that the power generation amount at each time indicated by the second power generation estimation relationship information is prior information obtained in advance, and the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the power generation scheduled period is the actual power generation amount. Therefore, the power generation amount at each time indicated by the second power generation estimation relationship information may be information obtained by a mathematical model such as simulation. On the other hand, the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the power generation scheduled period must be a measured value, not information obtained by a mathematical model.

[0054] The second relationship information is, for example, a mathematical model obtained in advance by a machine learning method, and is a mathematical model indicating the relationship between the content indicated by the second natural environment information and the representative value and dispersion degree of the distribution of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 in each divided period that divides the power generation scheduled period.

[0055] The machine learning method used to obtain the second relationship information is, for example, regression analysis. The machine learning method used to obtain the second relationship information may be, for example, random forest.

[0056] The second power generation estimation relationship information may be, for example, a relational database indicating the relationship between the content indicated by the second natural environment information and the time series of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 during the power generation scheduled period. Also, the second difference estimation relationship information may be, for example, a relational database indicating the relationship between the content indicated by the second natural environment information and the time series of the difference between the power generation amount at each time indicated by the second power generation estimation relationship information and the actual natural power generation amount at each time during the power generation scheduled period. The first relationship information and the second relationship information may be different or the same.

[0057] The scheduled determination process includes an estimated natural power generation state determination process and a stable power generation amount determination process. The estimated natural power generation state determination process is a process of determining which result of the first estimated quantity and the second estimated quantity to set as the estimated quantity to be determined during the power generation scheduled period based on the difference between the first estimated quantity and the second estimated quantity (hereinafter referred to as "scheduled error").

[0058] The first estimated quantity is a quantity indicating the first power generation estimated quantity and the first difference estimated quantity. The second estimated quantity is a quantity indicating the second power generation estimated quantity and the second difference estimated quantity. The estimated quantity to be determined is a quantity indicating the power generation estimated quantity to be determined and the difference estimated quantity to be determined. Setting a value as the estimated quantity to be determined means recording the value as the estimated quantity to be determined in a predetermined storage device such as the storage unit 34 described later. The set value is the value scheduled as the power generation amount during the power generation scheduled period.

[0059] The difference estimated quantity to be determined is a quantity that satisfies the condition that it is the first difference estimated quantity when the first estimated quantity is determined as the estimated quantity to be determined, and it is the second difference estimated quantity when the second estimated quantity is determined as the estimated quantity to be determined.

[0060] In the estimated natural power generation state determination process, when the scheduled error is less than or equal to a predetermined standard, the first estimated quantity is set as the estimated quantity to be determined. On the other hand, in the estimated natural power generation state determination process, when the scheduled error is greater than a predetermined standard, the second estimated quantity is set as the estimated quantity to be determined.

[0061] In this way, the estimated natural power generation state determination process is a process of determining the power generation estimated quantity to be determined and the difference estimated quantity to be determined based on the scheduled error. Also, since the estimated quantity to be determined is either the first estimated quantity or the second estimated quantity in this way, the power generation estimated quantity to be determined is either the first power generation estimated quantity or the second power generation estimated quantity. Therefore, the power generation estimated quantity to be determined is also the quantity estimated as the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 during the power generation scheduled period.

[0062] The stable power generation amount determination process is a process of determining which of the results of the first stable power generation candidate amount and the second stable power generation candidate amount is to be set as the stable power generation amount during the power generation prediction period based on the prediction error. Details of the stable power generation amount will be described later. Setting a value as the stable power generation amount means recording the value as the stable power generation amount in a predetermined storage device such as the storage unit 34 described later.

[0063] In the stable power generation amount determination process, when the prediction error is below a predetermined difference, the first stable power generation candidate amount is set as the stable power generation amount. On the other hand, in the stable power generation amount determination process, when the prediction error is greater than the predetermined difference, the second stable power generation candidate amount is set as the stable power generation amount. Thus, the stable power generation amount is either the first stable power generation candidate amount or the second stable power generation candidate amount.

[0064] <Explanation of the stable power generation amount> An explanation of the stable power generation amount will be given. As described above, the first stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the first difference estimation amount from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. And the first difference estimation amount is an amount indicating the difference between the estimated value of the actual natural power generation amount and the first power generation estimation amount, and is the amount at each time during the power generation prediction period. Therefore, the first stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the first power generation estimation amount from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. And the first power generation estimation amount when the stable power generation amount is set to the first stable power generation candidate amount is the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11. Therefore, when the stable power generation amount is set to the first stable power generation candidate amount, the stable power generation amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate.

[0065] Also, as described above, the second stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the second difference estimation amount from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. And the second difference estimation amount is the amount indicating the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the second power generation estimation amount. Therefore, the second stable power generation candidate amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the second power generation estimation amount from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. And the second power generation estimation amount when the stable power generation amount is set to the second stable power generation candidate amount is the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11. Therefore, when the stable power generation amount is set to the second stable power generation candidate amount, the stable power generation amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate.

[0066] Thus, the stable power generation amount is the amount obtained by subtracting the difference between the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 from the maximum power generation amount that the stable power generation device 21 can generate. Therefore, the stable power generation amount is an example of the normal power generation amount.

[0067] Also for this reason, when the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 does not reach the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11, the stable power generation device 21 that generates the stable power generation amount is in a state where it can generate the power to compensate for the shortage.

[0068] Thus, the stable power generation amount determination process is a process of determining the stable power generation amount based on the prediction error. Also, as described above, the first stable power generation candidate amount is the result obtained based on the first difference estimation amount, and the second stable power generation candidate amount is the result obtained based on the second difference estimation amount. Therefore, the stable power generation amount determination process is also a process of determining the stable power generation amount based on the prediction error and the difference estimation amount to be determined.

[0069] In this way, the schedule determination process is a process of determining the power generation estimate to be determined and the stable power generation amount based on the schedule error. In the schedule determination process, when the schedule error is less than or equal to a predetermined difference, the first power generation estimate is set as the power generation estimate to be determined and the first stable power generation candidate amount is set as the stable power generation amount. On the other hand, in the schedule determination process, when the schedule error is greater than the predetermined difference, the second power generation estimate is set as the power generation estimate to be determined and the second stable power generation candidate amount is set as the stable power generation amount.

[0070] <Explanation of the relationship between the content determined by the schedule determination process and the control by the power generation control device 3> As described above, the first natural environment information is information indicating either one or both of the state of the natural environment at a timing that satisfies a predetermined first timing condition and the estimated result of the state of the natural environment during the power generation scheduled period. On the other hand, the second natural environment information is information indicating either one or both of the state of the natural environment at a timing that satisfies a predetermined second timing condition and the actually measured result of the state of the natural environment during the power generation scheduled period.

[0071] And the timing that satisfies the first timing condition is earlier than the power generation scheduled period compared to the timing that satisfies the second timing condition. Therefore, the second estimate estimated using the information of the timing that satisfies the second timing condition is more likely to actually occur than the first estimate estimated using the information of the timing that satisfies the first timing condition. This also applies to the relationship between the first estimate determined using the estimated result of the state of the natural environment during the power generation scheduled period and the second estimate determined using the actually measured result of the timing that satisfies the second timing condition.

[0072] That is, the second estimated quantity estimated using the result of actual measurement of the timing that satisfies the second timing condition is more likely to actually occur than the first estimated quantity estimated using the estimation result of the state of the natural environment during the power generation scheduled period. Therefore, the second estimated quantity estimated by the second power generation scheduling process using the second natural environment information is more likely to actually occur than the first estimated quantity estimated by the first power generation scheduling process using the first natural environment information.

[0073] Therefore, when the prediction error is greater than a predetermined difference, the power generation control device 3 controls the operation of the stable power generation device 21 to generate power at the power generation amount determined by the second power generation scheduling process, thereby performing control that is more likely to be realized.

[0074] <Explanation of the relationship between the utilization efficiency of the stable power generation device 21 and the control by the power generation control device 3> Here, the relationship between the utilization efficiency of the stable power generation device 21 and the control by the power generation control device 3 will be explained. More specifically, the relationship between the operation efficiency of the stable power generation device 21 and the control by the power generation control device 3 will be explained. The operation efficiency is the actual power generation amount with respect to the maximum power generation amount that power generation devices such as the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21 can generate. The lower the operation efficiency, the more surplus power generation facilities have in terms of power generation. However, a low operation efficiency also means that the power generation facilities are not utilized as compared with the case of high operation efficiency.

[0075] Therefore, it is desirable that the operation efficiency of the stable power generation device 21 be as high as possible within the range where stable supply of the system power generation amount is possible. Stable supply of power means that the amount of power supplied is always equal to or greater than the planned value. Note that the system power generation amount is the amount of power generated by the entire power generation system 100. More specifically, it is the sum of the power generated by each of the natural power generation device 11, the stable power generation device 21, and the battery 4.

[0076] Therefore, during a period when the amount of power generated by the natural power generation device 11 such as in summer fluctuates significantly in the time axis direction as described above, the power generation control device 3 performs control to reduce the operating efficiency of the stable power generation device 21 more than during other periods. When the fluctuation of the power generation amount in the time axis direction is significant, there is a high frequency of situations where the natural power generation device 11 cannot generate the power of the estimated power generation to be determined.

[0077] In such a case, if the stable power generation device 21 has sufficient capacity for power generation, the insufficient amount of power can be compensated by increasing the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21. Therefore, the power generation control device 3 performs control to lower the target operating efficiency of the stable power generation device 21 in advance during a period when the fluctuation of the power generation amount in the time axis direction is significant.

[0078] Note that the external power grid of the power supply destination generally has a power storage device such as a storage battery and has a function of storing excess power. Therefore, the power generation control device 3 does not need to perform control to prevent the total power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21 from exceeding the system planned value.

[0079] <Regarding the control by the power generation control device 3 during the power generation scheduled period> The first power generation scheduling process, the second power generation scheduling process, the scheduled information output process, and the scheduling determination process are processes executed before the start of the power generation scheduled period. The power generation control device 3 operates not only before the start of the power generation scheduled period but also during the power generation scheduled period. During the power generation scheduled period, the power generation control device 3 performs monitoring processing and compensation control processing at a predetermined cycle. The monitoring processing and the compensation control processing are examples of processes executed in the power generation control process.

[0080] The monitoring process is a process of monitoring at least the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11. More specifically, the monitoring process is a process of acquiring natural power generation amount information and determining whether the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is less than the estimated power generation to be determined based on the acquired natural power generation amount information.

[0081] The compensation control process is a process that causes the power compensation device to execute a process of compensating for the shortfall in the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 when it is determined as a result of the monitoring process that the actual natural power generation amount is less than the determined power generation estimated amount. The shortfall in the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is the difference between the power generation amount indicated by the natural power generation amount information (i.e., the actual natural power generation amount) and the determined power generation estimated amount.

[0082] The power compensation device is a device capable of outputting power other than the natural power generation device 11 and is a device that generates power with less dependence on the state of the natural environment. The power compensation device is, for example, the stable power generation device 21. The power compensation device may be, for example, the battery 4 when the power generation system 100 includes the battery 4.

[0083] More specifically, the compensation control process is a process of controlling the operation of the power compensation device to increase the power generated by the power compensation device by at least the amount obtained by subtracting the actual natural power generation amount from the determined power generation estimated amount (hereinafter referred to as the "estimated error") when the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is less than the determined power generation estimated amount. The estimated error may be expressed in any manner as long as it can indicate the amount obtained by subtracting the actual natural power generation amount from the determined power generation estimated amount, and is, for example, indicated by the absolute value of the amount obtained by subtracting the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 from the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11.

[0084] When a situation occurs where the actual natural power generation amount is less than the determined power generation estimated amount, the power generation control device 3 does not necessarily need to increase the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 alone to achieve an increase in the system power generation amount by an amount equal to or greater than the estimated error of the system power generation amount. The power generation control device 3 may, for example, turn on the energization state of the battery 4 to also output power from the battery 4, and control the operation of the stable power generation device 21 so that the sum of the power output from the battery 4 and the increase in the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 is equal to the system power generation amount.

[0085] Using FIGS. 3 to 7, the power generation amounts of the respective power generation devices will be described in the case where the natural power generation device 11 is a power generation device that generates power using sunlight and the stable power generation device 21 is a power generation device that generates power using biomass.

[0086] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of the magnitude of the estimation error of the monthly power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 in the embodiment. The horizontal axis of FIG. 3 represents each month from January to December. The vertical axis of FIG. 3 indicates the estimation error. FIG. 3 shows that the estimation error is larger in summer such as June and July than in winter such as December and January.

[0087] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the summer power generation amount and the winter power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 in the embodiment. More specifically, FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the summer power generation amount and the winter power generation amount by taking the case where the natural power generation device 11 generates power from sunlight as an example. The horizontal axis of FIG. 4 represents the time from 3:00 am to 9:00 pm of a day. The vertical axis of FIG. 4 represents the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11. FIG. 4 shows that the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is larger in summer than in winter.

[0088] FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the stable power generation amount in summer and the stable power generation amount in winter of the stable power generation device 21 in the embodiment. More specifically, FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the power generation amount in summer and the power generation amount in winter by taking the case where the stable power generation device 21 generates power from biomass as an example. The horizontal axis of FIG. 5 represents the time from 3:00 am to 9:00 pm of a day. The vertical axis of FIG. 5 represents the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21.

[0089] FIG. 5 shows that there is a time period in summer when the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 is less than that in winter. As shown in FIG. 3, the fluctuation of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is larger in summer than in winter. Therefore, the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 may be lower than the target in summer. Thus, as shown in FIG. 5, there is a time period in which the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 in summer is set lower than that in winter.

[0090] FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the system planned values in summer and winter generated by the power generation system 100 of the embodiment. More specifically, FIG. 6 is a graph showing the sum of the graphs shown in FIG. 4 and the graph shown in FIG. 5. The horizontal axis of FIG. 6 represents the time from 3:00 am to 9:00 pm of a day. The vertical axis of FIG. 6 represents the sum of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 and the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21. FIG. 6 shows that substantially the same power generation amount was obtained in both summer and winter due to the control shown in FIG. 5.

[0091] FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of the relationship between the power generated by the power generation system 100 of the embodiment and the power determined by the power generation control device 3. The horizontal axis of FIG. 7 represents the time from 6:00 am to 6:00 pm of a day. The vertical axis of FIG. 7 represents the power generation amount. The time period after time t1 shown in FIG. 7 is the power generation scheduled period. The "predicted value" in FIG. 7 represents the sum of the first power generation estimated amount and the first stable power generation candidate amount. The "corrected value" in FIG. 7 represents the sum of the second power generation estimated amount and the second stable power generation candidate amount. The "actual power generation value" in FIG. 7 represents the actual natural power generation amount. The "stable power supply prediction control value" in FIG. 7 represents the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 among the system power generation amounts. The "battery charge and discharge" in FIG. 7 represents the power generation amount of the battery 4 among the system power generation amounts.

[0092] As shown in FIG. 3, when the natural power generation device 11 is a power generation device that generates power using sunlight, the estimation error is larger in summer than in winter. Therefore, the stable power generation amount determined by the execution of the first power generation scheduling process, the second power generation scheduling process, and the scheduling determination process is smaller in summer than in winter as shown in FIG. 5. Such a difference in the stable power generation amount according to the period is not limited to the relationship between summer and winter, but is common to the relationship between a period in which the generated estimation error is relatively large (hereinafter referred to as "first period") and a period in which the generated estimation error is relatively small (hereinafter referred to as "second period"). Also, this is common not only to the stable power generation amount but also to the normal power generation amount.

[0093] In this way, the power generation control device 3 controls the operation of the stable power generation device 21 so that the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 in the first period is less than the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 in the second period. Such processing is not only the processing performed only when the first power generation schedule processing, the second power generation schedule processing, the schedule determination processing, the monitoring processing, and the compensation control processing are executed, but also the common processing when the preprocessing and the power generation control processing are performed.

[0094] FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment. The power generation control device 3 includes a control unit 31 including a processor 91 such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and a memory 92 connected by a bus, and executes a program. The power generation control device 3 functions as a device including the control unit 31, the communication unit 32, the input unit 33, the storage unit 34, and the output unit 35 by executing a program.

[0095] More specifically, the power generation control device 3 reads out a program stored in the storage unit 34 by the processor 91 and stores the read program in the memory 92. By the processor 91 executing the program stored in the memory 92, the power generation control device 3 functions as a device including the control unit 31, the communication unit 32, the input unit 33, the storage unit 34, and the output unit 35.

[0096] The control unit 31 controls the operations of various functional units included in the power generation control device 3. The control unit 31 executes, for example, the first power generation schedule processing. The control unit 31 executes, for example, the second power generation schedule processing. The control unit 31 executes, for example, the schedule determination processing. The control unit 31 executes, for example, the monitoring processing. The control unit 31 executes, for example, the compensation control processing.

[0097] The control unit 31 controls, for example, the operation of the output unit 35. The control unit 31 outputs schedule information to the output unit 35 by controlling the operation of the output unit 35, for example. The process of outputting schedule information to the output unit 35 by the control unit 31 controlling the operation of the output unit 35 is an example of the schedule information output process.

[0098] The control unit 31 records various information generated by executing, for example, the first power generation schedule process, the second power generation schedule process, the schedule determination process, the monitoring process, or the compensation control process in the storage unit 34. The control unit 31 records various information input to, for example, the communication unit 32 or the input unit 33 in the storage unit 34.

[0099] The communication unit 32 is configured to include a communication interface for connecting the power generation control device 3 to an external device. The communication unit 32 communicates with an external device via wired or wireless means. The external device is, for example, the natural power generation facility 1. The external device is, for example, the stable power generation facility 2. The external device is, for example, the device that is the source of the first estimated factor information. The external device is, for example, the device that is the source of the second estimated factor information.

[0100] The device that is the source of the first estimated factor information is, for example, the server of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The device that is the source of the second estimated factor information is, for example, the server of the Japan Meteorological Agency.

[0101] The communication unit 32 acquires the information output by the external device through communication with the external device. The information output by the external device is, for example, the natural power generation amount information. The natural power generation amount information is acquired through communication with the natural power generation facility 1. The information output by the external device is, for example, the first estimated factor information. The information output by the external device is, for example, the second estimated factor information. The communication unit 32 controls the operation of the external device at the communication destination by transmitting a control signal, which is a signal for controlling the operation of the external device at the communication destination, through communication with the external device. The external device whose operation is controlled by the communication unit 32 through communication is, for example, the stable power generation device 21.

[0102] The input unit 33 is configured to include input devices such as a mouse, a keyboard, and a touch panel. The input unit 33 may be configured as an interface for connecting these input devices to the power generation control device 3. The input unit 33 receives the input of various information to the power generation control device 3. For example, an instruction to start the first power generation schedule process is input to the input unit 33. For example, an instruction to start the second power generation schedule process is input to the input unit 33. For example, an instruction to start the schedule determination process is input to the input unit 33. For example, an instruction to start the monitoring process is input to the input unit 33.

[0103] The storage unit 34 is configured using a computer-readable storage medium device such as a magnetic hard disk device or a semiconductor storage device. The storage unit 34 stores the first relationship information in advance. The storage unit 34 stores the second relationship information in advance.

[0104] The storage unit 34 stores various information regarding the power generation system 100 including the power generation control device 3 itself. The storage unit 34 stores the information input via, for example, the communication unit 32 or the input unit 33. The storage unit 34 stores various information generated by the execution of the process by the control unit 31, for example.

[0105] Note that the first estimated factor information, the second estimated factor information, or the natural power generation amount information does not necessarily have to be input only to the communication unit 32. The first estimated factor information, the second estimated factor information, or the natural power generation amount information may be input to the input unit 33.

[0106] The output unit 35 outputs various information. The output unit 35 is configured to include a display device such as a CRT (Cathode Ray Tube) display, a liquid crystal display, or an organic EL (Electro-Luminescence) display. The output unit 35 may be configured as an interface for connecting these display devices to the power generation control device 3. The output unit 35 may be configured to include a printer, for example. The output unit 35 outputs the information input to the input unit 33, for example. The output unit 35 may display the result of the execution of the process by the control unit 31, for example. The output unit 35 outputs schedule information, for example.

[0107] FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the control unit 31 in the embodiment. The control unit 31 includes a communication control unit 310, an input information acquisition unit 320, a preprocessing execution unit 330, a power generation control processing execution unit 340, an output control unit 350, and a storage control unit 360.

[0108] The communication control unit 310 controls the operation of the communication unit 32. The input information acquisition unit 320 acquires the information input to the input unit 33 or the communication unit 32.

[0109] The preprocessing execution unit 330 executes preprocessing. The preprocessing execution unit 330 executes, for example, a first power generation schedule process, a second power generation schedule process, and a schedule determination process as preprocessing. The power generation control processing execution unit 340 executes power generation control processing. The power generation control processing execution unit 340 executes, for example, a monitoring process and a compensation control process as power generation control processing.

[0110] The output control unit 350 controls the operation of the output unit 35. The output control unit 350 executes, for example, a schedule information output process. By executing the schedule information output process, the output control unit 350 controls the operation of the output unit 35 to cause the output unit 35 to output schedule information. The storage control unit 360 records various information in the storage unit 34.

[0111] Hereinafter, for the sake of simplicity of explanation, taking the case where the processes executed by the preprocessing execution unit 330 are the first power generation schedule process, the second power generation schedule process, and the schedule determination process as an example, an example of the flow of the process executed by the power generation control device 3 will be described. Also hereinafter, for the sake of simplicity of explanation, taking the case where the processes executed by the power generation control processing execution unit 340 are the monitoring process and the compensation control process as an example, an example of the flow of the process executed by the power generation control device 3 will be described. Also hereinafter, for the sake of simplicity of explanation, taking the case where the normal power generation amount is the stable power generation amount as an example, an example of the flow of the process executed by the power generation control device 3 will be described.

[0112] FIG. 10 is a first flowchart showing an example of the flow of processing executed by the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment before the start of the power generation scheduled period. The processing described in FIG. 10 is executed at a timing after the timing satisfying the first timing condition and before the timing satisfying the second timing condition.

[0113] The input information acquisition unit 320 acquires the first estimated factor information input to the communication unit 32 or the input unit 33 (step S101). Next, the preprocessing execution unit 330 acquires a first estimated amount and a first stable power generation candidate amount based on the first estimated factor information (step S102). Next, the output control unit 350 controls the operation of the output unit 35 to cause the output unit 35 to output schedule information (step S103).

[0114] FIG. 11 is a second flowchart showing an example of the flow of processing executed by the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment before the start of the power generation scheduled period. The processing in step S201 is executed after the processing in step S103. The processing described in FIG. 11 is executed at a timing after the timing satisfying the second timing condition and before the start of the power generation scheduled period.

[0115] The input information acquisition unit 320 acquires the second estimated factor information input to the communication unit 32 or the input unit 33 (step S201). Next, the preprocessing execution unit 330 acquires a second estimated amount and a second stable power generation candidate amount based on the second estimated factor information (step S202). Next, the preprocessing execution unit 330 determines whether the difference between the first estimated amount and the second estimated amount (that is, the schedule error) is less than or equal to a predetermined standard (step S203).

[0116] Note that the difference between the first estimated amount and the second estimated amount more specifically includes the difference between the first power generation estimated amount and the second power generation estimated amount and the difference between the first difference estimated amount and the second difference estimated amount. The predetermined standard is, for example, that the difference between the first estimated amount and the second estimated amount is such that the sum of the K-th power (K is 1 or more) of the norm of the difference between the first power generation estimated amount and the second power generation estimated amount and the K-th power of the norm of the difference between the first difference estimated amount and the second difference estimated amount (that is, the sum of the squared norms) is equal to or greater than a predetermined value.

[0117] When the prediction error is equal to or less than a predetermined criterion (step S203: YES), the preprocessing execution unit 330 determines the first estimated value as the to-be-determined estimated value, and determines the stable power generation amount as the first stable power generation candidate amount (step S204). Next, the preprocessing execution unit 330 transmits a control signal for instructing the stable power generation device 21 to generate power at the stable power generation amount via the communication control unit 310 (step S205). That is, in the control of step S205, the preprocessing execution unit 330 controls the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 to the stable power generation amount via the communication control unit 310.

[0118] On the other hand, when the prediction error is greater than a predetermined criterion (step S203: NO), the preprocessing execution unit 330 determines the second estimated value as the to-be-determined estimated value, and determines the stable power generation amount as the second stable power generation candidate amount (step S206). After the process of step S206, the process of step S205 is executed.

[0119] FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing an example of the flow of processing executed by the power generation control device 3 during the power generation prediction period in the embodiment. The process of step S301 is executed after the process of step S203. The process described in FIG. 12 is executed at a timing after the start of the power generation prediction period. The process described in FIG. 12 is repeatedly executed at a predetermined cycle during the power generation prediction period.

[0120] The input information acquisition unit 320 acquires the natural power generation amount information (step S301). Next, the power generation control process execution unit 340 determines whether the actual natural power generation amount indicated by the natural power generation amount information acquired in step S301 is less than the to-be-determined power generation estimated value determined in step S204 or step S206 (step S302).

[0121] When the actual natural power generation amount is less than the determined power generation estimated amount (step S302: YES), the power generation control processing execution unit 340 transmits a control signal instructing an increase in the power generation amount to the stable power generation device 21 via the communication control unit 310 (step S303). That is, in the control of step S303, the power generation control processing execution unit 340 performs control to increase the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 to be greater than the stable power generation amount via the communication control unit 310. Next, the processing of the new step S301 is started.

[0122] On the other hand, when the actual natural power generation amount is greater than or equal to the determined power generation estimated amount (step S302: NO), the process ends. Therefore, the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 is the stable power generation amount. The end of the process during the power generation scheduled period means the start of the new step S301.

[0123] Since the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment configured as described above includes the preprocessing execution unit 330 and the power generation control processing execution unit 340, when the actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is less than the determined power generation estimated amount during the power generation scheduled period, the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 can be increased. Therefore, the power generation control device 3 can suppress a decrease in the amount of electric power generated by power generation using natural energy in combination.

[0124] Also, since the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment configured as described above includes the preprocessing execution unit 330 and the power generation control processing execution unit 340, the frequency at which the system power generation amount falls below the system planned value can be suppressed. Therefore, the power generation control device 3 can suppress the occurrence of a situation where the amount of electric power generated by power generation using natural energy in combination does not reach the target.

[0125] Also, since the power generation control device 3 in the embodiment configured as described above includes the preprocessing execution unit 330 and the power generation control processing execution unit 340, it is also possible to suppress a decrease in the operating efficiency of the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21. That is, the power generation control device 3 can also effectively utilize the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21.

[0126] In addition, the power generation system 100 of the embodiment configured as described above includes a preprocessing execution unit 330 and a power generation control processing execution unit 340. Therefore, the power generation system 100 can suppress a decrease in the amount of generated power produced by power generation using natural energy in combination. In addition, the power generation system 100 can suppress the occurrence of a situation where the amount of generated power produced by power generation using natural energy in combination does not reach the target. In addition, the power generation system 100 can effectively utilize the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21.

[0127] (Modification example) Note that the natural environment information may include information indicating the position of the natural power generation device 11. For example, even if the weather is clear, the intensity of light that can be received by the natural power generation device 11 varies depending on the region. Thus, natural energy may vary depending on the position where the natural power generation device 11 is located. Therefore, when estimating the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 based on the information indicating the position of the natural power generation device 11 in the preprocessing, an estimation result with higher accuracy can be obtained than the estimation not based on the information indicating the position of the natural power generation device 11.

[0128] As shown in FIG. 3, when the natural power generation device 11 is a power generation device that generates power using sunlight, the estimation error is larger in summer than in winter. Therefore, as shown in FIG. 5, the normal power generation amount determined by the execution of the preprocessing by the preprocessing execution unit 330 is smaller in summer than in winter. Such a difference in the normal power generation amount according to the period is common not only in the relationship between summer and winter but also in the relationship between a period (hereinafter referred to as "first period") in which the estimation error that occurs is relatively large and a period (hereinafter referred to as "second period") in which the estimation error that occurs is relatively small. Thus, the preprocessing execution unit 330 controls the operation of the stable power generation device 21 so that the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 in the first period is less than the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 in the second period.

[0129] Note that the normal power generation amount does not necessarily have to be the stable power generation amount. The normal power generation amount may be an amount of power lower than the stable power generation amount.

[0130] In addition, the preprocessing execution unit 330 may execute a process of acquiring information indicating a timing such as a date, time, or year (hereinafter referred to as "clock information"). The process of acquiring the clock information is obtained, for example, by the preprocessing execution unit 330 itself executing a process of counting numbers. When the timing indicated by the acquired clock information is the timing of the transition from a predetermined first period to a second period, the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 may be changed from the normal power generation amount in the first period to the normal power generation amount in the second period.

[0131] Note that power generation using biomass has a characteristic that the power generation efficiency deteriorates when the power generation amount is changed a predetermined number of times per day. The predetermined number of times is, for example, 2 or 3 times. Therefore, when the stable power generation device 21 performs power generation using biomass, and after the power generation control processing execution unit 340 has performed a process of increasing the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 up to the predetermined number of times and the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11 is still insufficient, an alternative compensation process may be performed. The alternative compensation process is a process of increasing the power generation amount of another power compensation device other than the stable power generation device 21, such as the battery 4, up to an amount that compensates for the shortage of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device 11, instead of increasing the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21.

[0132] Note that in the case of power generation using biomass, it may take a time such as 30 minutes until the power generation amount reaches a predetermined amount. Therefore, when the stable power generation device 21 performs power generation using biomass, the power generation control processing execution unit 340 may output to the battery 4 until the power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 reaches the predetermined amount.

[0133] Note that the decrease in the power generation amount is, for example, the difference between the power generation actual value and the previous day's planned value. The planned value is an example of the target amount. Therefore, the previous day's planned value is an example of the target amount.

[0134] Note that the control unit 31 may further include a determination unit 370 that determines whether the power generation scheduled period is in the first period or the second period. Hereinafter, the control unit 31 including the determination unit 370 is referred to as a control unit 31a.

[0135] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the control unit 31a in a modified example. Hereinafter, for the sake of simplicity of explanation, those having the same functions as the respective functional units described in FIG. 9 are denoted by the same reference numerals as in FIG. 9, and the description thereof is omitted. The control unit 31a is different from the control unit 31 in that it includes a determination unit 370 and that it includes a pre-processing execution unit 330a instead of the pre-processing execution unit 330. In addition to the processing executed by the pre-processing execution unit 330, the pre-processing execution unit 330a further executes the following determination-dependent result processing.

[0136] The determination result-dependent processing is processing for controlling the operation of the stable power generation device 21 so that the first determined power generation amount is less than the second determined power generation amount according to the determination result of the determination unit 370. The first determined power generation amount is the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 when the determination unit 370 determines that the power generation scheduled period is in the first period. The second determined power generation amount is the normal power generation amount of the stable power generation device 21 when the determination unit 370 determines that the power generation scheduled period is in the second period.

[0137] Note that the output unit 35 may output information indicating whether the power generation scheduled period corresponds to the first period or the second period together with information indicating the normal power generation amount. For example, when the output unit 35 performs display, the output format of the information indicating whether the power generation scheduled period corresponds to the first period or the second period and the information indicating the normal power generation amount is display. When the output unit 35 performs display, the output control unit 350 controls the display of the output unit 35, for example. The output unit 35 is an example of a display unit. The output control unit 350 is an example of a display control unit.

[0138] Note that the power generation control device 3 may be implemented using a plurality of information processing devices communicably connected via a network. In this case, each functional unit included in the power generation control device 3 may be implemented in a distributed manner in a plurality of information processing devices.

[0139] Note that the natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21 do not necessarily need to be provided by different power generation facilities. The natural power generation device 11 and the stable power generation device 21 may be provided in one power generation facility.

[0140] Note that all or part of each function of the power generation control device 3 may be realized using hardware such as an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), a PLD (Programmable Logic Device), or an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array). The program may be recorded on a computer-readable recording medium. A computer-readable recording medium is, for example, a portable medium such as a flexible disk, a magneto-optical disk, a ROM, or a CD-ROM, or a storage device such as a hard disk built into a computer system. The program may be transmitted via an electric communication line.

[0141] As described above, the embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail with reference to the drawings. However, the specific configuration is not limited to this embodiment, and designs and the like within the scope not departing from the gist of the present invention are also included.

Explanation of Reference Numerals

[0142] 100... Power generation system, 1... Natural power generation facility, 2... Stable power generation facility, 3... Power generation control device, 4... Battery, 11... Natural power generation device, 12... Sensor, 13... Communication device, 21... Stable power generation device, 22... Communication device, 31, 31a... Control unit, 32... Communication unit, 33... Input unit, 34... Storage unit, 35... Output unit, 310... Communication control unit, 320... Input information acquisition unit, 330, 330a... Preprocessing execution unit, 340... Power generation control processing execution unit, 350... Output control unit, 360... Storage control unit, 370... Discrimination unit, 91... Processor, 92... Memory

Claims

1. A power generation system including a natural power generation device that generates power using natural energy and a stable power generation device that generates power more stably than the natural power generation device, determining means for determining the power generation amount of the stable power generation device to a normal power generation amount that is less than the maximum power amount that can be generated by the stable power generation device before the start of a power generation scheduled period, which is a period during which power generation is performed by the natural power generation device and the stable power generation device; determining means for determining whether the power generation amount of the natural power generation device in the power generation scheduled period is less than a planned value; control means for controlling the stable power generation device so that the power generation amount of the stable power generation device becomes the normal power generation amount determined by the determining means so that at least a part of the power, which is an amount obtained by subtracting the power generation amount of the natural power generation device from the planned value, can be generated when the determining means determines that it is less; the normal power generation amount is less than a stable power generation amount that is an amount obtained by subtracting, from the maximum power generation amount that can be generated by the stable power generation device, an amount obtained by subtracting the past actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device from the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device over a period prior to the power generation scheduled period; the past actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device is less than the planned value of the power generation amount of the natural power generation device; A power generation system.

2. The power generation amount of the stable power generation device is determined to be the normal power generation amount on the day before the power generation scheduled period. The power generation system according to claim 1.

3. The normal power generation amount corresponding to a first period, which is a period in which an estimated error, which is an amount obtained by subtracting the past actual power generation amount of the natural power generation device from the planned value, is relatively large, is less than the normal power generation amount corresponding to a second period, which is a period in which the estimated error is relatively small. The power generation system according to claim 1 or 2.

4. The power generation amount of the stable power generation device determined to be the normal power generation amount is changed from the normal power generation amount corresponding to the first period to the normal power generation amount corresponding to the second period at a predetermined timing of transition from the first period to the second period. The power generation system according to claim 3.

5. An output unit that outputs information indicating the normal power generation amount. The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 4, further comprising the output unit.

6. The stable power generation device generates power using biomass. The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

7. The power generation system further includes a power generation device other than the stable power generation device and the natural power generation device. The power generation amount of a power generation device other than the stable power generation device and the natural power generation device increases when the process of increasing the power generation amount of the stable power generation device is performed a predetermined number of times. The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 6. **Claim 8** The natural power generation device performs solar power generation. The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 7. **Claim 9** A first battery that outputs power when the power generation amount of the natural power generation device during the power generation scheduled period is less than the planned value. The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 8, further comprising the first battery. **Claim 10** A second battery that outputs power until the power generation amount of the stable power generation device reaches a predetermined amount. The power generation system according to any one of claims 1 to 9, further comprising the second battery.

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