Estimation device, power curve data production method, and program

Abstract

To properly estimate a state of a wind power generator.SOLUTION: An estimation device 40 is provided with: a divided range wind speed estimation unit 44 that sets a plurality of ranges obtained by horizontally dividing a rotor surface as divided ranges and calculates an estimated wind speed in each divided range based on a hub height wind speed at a height of a hub and a wind speed vertical distribution function representing a distribution of wind speeds in a vertical direction; a rotor equivalent wind speed calculation unit 45 that calculates a rotor equivalent wind speed by weighted-averaging the estimated wind speed with an area A of the divided range; and a power curve estimation unit 46 that estimates a rotor equivalent wind speed power curve that is a combination of the rotor equivalent wind speed and the power generation output based on a hub height wind speed power curve that is a combination of the hub height wind speed and the power generation output.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 4

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an estimation device, a method for producing power curve data, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] Regarding a technique for predicting wind speed in a wind power generator, paragraph 0031 of the specification of Patent Document 1 listed below states, "...in this embodiment, wind speed data including wind speed values ​​at a plurality of different positions in the vertical direction is measured for a plurality of directions using a Doppler LIDAR 15. The measured wind speed values ​​constitute wind speed data for each direction. The wind speed data for one direction that is closest to the nacelle height wind direction measured in the nacelle measurement step S11 is selected as wind speed prediction data. The selected wind speed data is sent to the calculation device 13 as wind speed prediction data."

[0003] Furthermore, with regard to the power curve of a wind power generator, paragraph 0056 of the specification of Patent Document 2 listed below states, "The parameter optimization unit 23 may optimize the power curve. A power curve is a graph that shows the performance of a wind power generator, with the horizontal axis representing wind power and the vertical axis representing power output. Generally, wind speed is used as the wind power on the horizontal axis. The operating performance of the wind turbine can be grasped by using the power curve. The parameter optimization unit 23 may be equipped with a power curve generation unit that generates a power curve. The power generation amount prediction unit 25 may predict the power generation amount based on the optimized power curve." [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2023-18601 [Patent Document 2] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2022-183981 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] However, in the above-mentioned technology, there is a demand for more accurate estimation of the state of the wind power generator. This invention has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned circumstances, and aims to provide an estimation device, a power curve data production method, and a program that can appropriately estimate the state of a wind turbine generator. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] In order to solve the above problem, the estimation device of the present invention is characterized by comprising: a divided range wind speed estimator that defines divided ranges as multiple ranges obtained by horizontally dividing the rotor surface of a wind power generator equipped with a rotor having a hub and blades that rotate around the hub, and calculates an estimated wind speed in each divided range based on a hub-height wind speed at the height of the hub and a wind speed vertical distribution function that represents the distribution of wind speed in the vertical direction; a rotor equivalent wind speed calculation unit that calculates a rotor equivalent wind speed by taking a weighted average of the estimated wind speeds by the area of ​​the divided range; and a power curve estimator that estimates a rotor equivalent wind speed power curve, which is a combination of the rotor equivalent wind speed and the power generation output, based on a hub-height wind speed power curve, which is a combination of the hub-height wind speed and the power generation output. [Effects of the Invention]

[0007] According to the present invention, the state of the wind power generator can be appropriately estimated. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0008] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a wind power generator applied to each embodiment. [Figure 2] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a power curve for hub height wind speed. [Figure 3] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the relationship between the wind speed vertical distribution and the rotor surface. [Figure 4] 1 is a block diagram of a power curve estimating device according to a first embodiment. [Figure 5]FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a computer. [Figure 6] 10 is a flowchart of a rotor equivalent wind speed calculation routine. [Figure 7] 10 is a flowchart of a rotor equivalent wind speed power curve calculation processing routine. [Figure 8] FIG. 10 is a block diagram of a power generation estimation device according to a second embodiment. [Figure 9] 10 is a flowchart of a power generation output calculation routine in the second embodiment. [Figure 10] FIG. 10 is a block diagram of a generated power estimation device 60 according to a third embodiment. [Figure 11] 10 is a flowchart of a power generation output calculation routine in the third embodiment. [Figure 12] FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram of the operation of the third embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0009] [Outline of the embodiment] FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a wind power generator 120 that is applied to each embodiment described below. The wind power generator 120 includes blades 122, a hub 124, a nacelle 125, a tower 126, and a wind direction and wind speed measurement unit 128. The nacelle 125 is provided behind the hub 124 and includes a generator (not shown) that is rotationally driven by the hub 124. The tower 126 holds the nacelle 125 and hub 124 at a predetermined hub height z HH In the illustrated example, three blades 122 are provided, which are attached to a hub 124 and rotate around the hub 124. The hub 124 and blades 122 are sometimes referred to as a "rotor." The wind direction and speed measurement unit 128 measures wind direction and speed at various heights at the installation location of the wind power generator 120. For example, a Doppler lidar can be used, which measures wind direction and speed by emitting laser light and receiving light scattered by aerosols.

[0010] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of a power curve CHH for hub height wind speed. As shown in the figure, the power curve CHH for the hub height wind speed is plotted on the horizontal axis as the hub height wind speed u of the wind power generator 120 (see FIG. 3). HH (hub height z HH The vertical axis is the power output P HH The power output P HH Generally, wind power generation companies obtain the power curve CHH for hub height wind speed from the wind power generator manufacturer to conduct a business feasibility study.

[0011] Returning to FIG. 1, in recent years, the wind power generator 120 has been getting larger year by year. That is, the blades 122 are getting longer and the hub 124 is getting higher. For this reason, the difference in wind speed between the upper end ET and the lower end EB of the rotor surface E (the range swept by the blades 122) is widening, and the power output P HH It is becoming increasingly difficult to predict this. Therefore, the second edition of the IEC 61400-12-1 standard describes the rotor-equivalent wind speed. Each area obtained by horizontally dividing the rotor surface E is called a division area, and the number of division areas is called the division number im. The rotor-equivalent wind speed is calculated by taking a weighted average of the wind speed in each division area, based on the area of ​​the division area.

[0012] In the example of FIG. 1, the rotor surface E is a circular area having a rotor radius r. The number of divisions im is set to "5", and the ranges obtained by dividing the rotor surface E equally by the number of divisions im along the height direction from the bottom end EB to the top end ET are called divided ranges E1 to E5 from bottom to top. The areas of the divided ranges E1 to E5 are called A1 to A5. The area A1 of the lowest divided range E1 is the area of ​​the rotor surface E that is located at a height "z" above ground level. HH -r" to ground clearance "z" HH The ground height z1 of the divided range E1 is the average value of the heights of the upper and lower ends of the divided range E1, which is the range of "z HH -4r / 5".

[0013] However, division range E i Ground clearance z i is the division range Ei The average value of the upper and lower end heights is not limited to the division range E i 1, the rotor surface E may be divided into five equal parts along the height direction from the bottom end EB to the top end ET, forming divided ranges E1 to E5. However, the height above ground of each divided range, whether it is divided equally or not, and the like may be changed as appropriate.

[0014] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the relationship between the wind speed vertical distributions G20 and G22 and the rotor plane E. As shown in FIG. In the example of Figure 3, the center of the rotor surface E, i.e., the hub height z HH (See Figure 1) is 100m above ground level. The vertical wind speed distributions G20 and G22 are graphs with wind speed on the horizontal axis and height above ground on the vertical axis. Distribution G20 shows an example of wind speed distribution in mountainous terrain, while distribution G22 shows an example of wind speed distribution in flat terrain. As shown in the distributions G20 and G22, the vertical wind speed distribution varies depending on the terrain, and wind speed generally increases the higher you go. Furthermore, distribution G20 for mountainous terrain has a greater vertical wind speed difference than distribution G22 for flat terrain.

[0015] The above-mentioned wind speed vertical distributions G20 and G22 can be approximated by a power law, a logarithmic law, etc. Therefore, a function that approximates the wind speed vertical distributions G20 and G22 by a power law, a logarithmic law, etc. is called the wind speed vertical distribution function GX. In other words, the wind speed vertical distribution function GX is expressed as a curve on a graph with the horizontal axis representing wind speed and the vertical axis representing ground height, and the shape of the curve varies with the hub height z HH and the hub height wind speed u HH and the geographical conditions (mountainous terrain, flat terrain, etc.) of the installation location of the wind power generator 120.

[0016] Although not shown in the figure, the horizontal axis represents the rotor equivalent wind speed, and the vertical axis represents the generator power output P HH The curve that achieves this is called the rotor equivalent wind speed power curve. That is, the rotor equivalent wind speed power curve is similar to the hub height wind speed power curve CHH shown in Figure 2, although the shape of the curve is different.

[0017] Calculating power output using the rotor-equivalent wind speed power curve is particularly effective for onshore wind power plants in mountainous terrain and wind power plants that use large wind turbines. The rotor-equivalent wind speed power curve, like the hub-height wind speed power curve CHH, can be obtained by measuring wind speed and power output. However, because measuring the rotor-equivalent wind speed power curve requires time and money, wind turbine manufacturers do not always disclose the rotor-equivalent wind speed power curve. Therefore, in the embodiment described below, the rotor-equivalent wind speed power curve is estimated based on the hub-height wind speed power curve CHH and other data without conducting additional measurements.

[0018] [First embodiment] <Configuration of the first embodiment> FIG. 4 is a block diagram of a power curve estimating device 40 according to the first embodiment. The power curve estimation device 40 (estimation device, computer) includes an input unit 41, an output unit 42, a range division unit 43, a divided range wind speed estimation unit 44 (divided range wind speed estimation means), a rotor equivalent wind speed calculation unit 45 (rotor equivalent wind speed calculation means), and a power curve estimation unit 46 (power curve estimation means).

[0019] The input unit 41 receives various data input by the user. The received data includes horizontal division method data DH. The horizontal division method data DH is data that specifies the division ranges, such as the number of divisions im, which is an integer equal to or greater than "2," the height above ground of each division range, and the width of each division range in the height direction. The output unit 42 outputs various information using a display, printer, etc.

[0020] The range division unit 43 divides the rotor surface E into a plurality of divided ranges (divided ranges E1 to E5 in the example of FIG. 1) based on the horizontal division method data DH. The divided range wind speed estimation unit 44 estimates the wind speed in each divided range. The rotor equivalent wind speed calculation unit 45 calculates the wind speed u HH The rotor equivalent wind speed is estimated based on the above, etc. The power curve estimation unit 46 estimates a rotor equivalent wind speed power curve based on the estimated rotor equivalent wind speed.

[0021] 5 is a block diagram of the computer 980. The power curve estimating device 40 shown in FIG. 4 includes one or more computers 980 shown in FIG. 5, a computer 980 includes a CPU 981, a storage unit 982, a communication I / F (interface) 983, an input / output I / F 984, and a media I / F 985. Here, the storage unit 982 includes a RAM 982a, a ROM 982b, and an SSD (Solid State Drive) 982c. The communication I / F 983 is connected to a communication circuit 986. The input / output I / F 984 is connected to an input / output device 987. The media I / F 985 reads and writes data from a recording medium 988.

[0022] The ROM 982b stores an IPL (Initial Program Loader) executed by the CPU, etc. The SSD 982c stores application programs, various data, etc. The CPU 981 executes application programs, etc. loaded from the SSD 982c to the RAM 982a, thereby realizing various functions. The interior of the power curve estimation device 40 shown in FIG. 4 and the interior of generated power estimation devices 50 and 60 according to other embodiments (see FIGS. 8 and 10) described below are primarily shown as blocks representing functions realized by application programs, etc.

[0023] <Operation of the First Embodiment> FIG. 6 is a flowchart of a rotor equivalent wind speed calculation routine. This routine calculates the wind speed at a given hub height, u HH For each rotor, the corresponding equivalent wind speed u RE This is a routine to calculate 6, when the process proceeds to step S2, a counter variable i is initially set to "1." Note that the counter variable i is a variable that changes within a range from "1" to the division number im ("5" in the example of FIG. 1).

[0024] Next, when the process proceeds to step S4, the range division unit 43 divides the divided range E based on the dimensions of the wind power generator 120 and the horizontal division method data DH. i Area A i and ground clearance z i The dimensions of the wind power generator 120 are calculated by dividing the hub height z HH (See FIG. 3) and the rotor radius r. As shown in the example of FIG. 3, when the number of divisions im is "5", the division range E i is one of the divided ranges E1 to E5.

[0025] Next, when the process proceeds to step S6 (divided-area wind speed estimation process), the divided-area wind speed estimation unit 44 calculates the wind speed vertical distribution function GX (see FIG. 3) corresponding to the wind power generator 120 and the hub height z HH and the hub height wind speed u HH and division range E i Ground clearance z i and, based on the ground clearance z i Estimated wind speed u i Calculate.

[0026] Here, the estimated wind speed u i The method for calculating is described in detail below. As mentioned above, the estimated wind speed u i can be obtained by the wind speed vertical distribution function GX (see Figure 3), and the power law, logarithmic law, etc. can be applied to the wind speed vertical distribution function GX. Here, when the power law is applied as the wind speed vertical distribution function GX, the estimated wind speed u i can be calculated using the following formula (1). u i =u HH (z i / z HH ) (1 / N) …(1) Here, the parameter N is a value that differs depending on the terrain, and is approximately "6" to "10" for flat terrain such as the sea, and approximately "3" to "6" for complex terrain such as mountainous areas. In this embodiment, the parameter N may be input by the user via the input unit 41.

[0027] In addition, when applying the logarithmic law to the wind speed vertical distribution function GX, the zero plane displacement d and the roughness length z0 are used as parameters, and the estimated wind speed u i can be calculated using the following formula (2). u i =(u * / κ)ln((z i -d) / z0) …(2) Here, the zero plane displacement d is a correction amount for the fact that the plane with altitude = 0 relative to the atmosphere is located above the actual ground surface due to buildings, vegetation, etc. Also, the roughness length z0 is a measure of the roughness of the ground surface. Also, κ is the Kármán constant, e.g., 0.40. ln is the natural logarithm.

[0028] Also, u in equation (2) * is the friction velocity and the hub height z HH and hub height wind speed u HH and is obtained by solving the following equation (3). u HH =(u * / κ)ln((z HH -d) / z0) …(3)

[0029] 6, when the process proceeds to step S8, the division range wind speed estimator 44 determines whether the counter variable i is less than the division number im. If the determination here is "Yes," the process proceeds to step S10, where the division range wind speed estimator 44 increments the counter variable i by "1." Then, the processes of steps S4 to S8 are executed again.

[0030] On the other hand, if the determination in step S8 is "No", the process proceeds to step S12 (rotor equivalent wind speed calculation process). i Estimated wind speed u i area A i By weighting the average, the rotor equivalent wind speed uRE The details are explained below. The wind energy per unit time is calculated as 0.5×ρ×A×V, where ρ is the air density, A is the swept area, and V is the wind speed. 3 It is expressed as:

[0031] Therefore, the rotor equivalent wind speed calculation unit 45 calculates the division range E i Estimated wind speed u i The cube of the division range E i Area A i The rotor equivalent wind speed u is calculated by weighted averaging. RE get. u RE =(Σ(A i / AE)u i 3 ) (1 / 3) …(4) In equation (4), Σ represents the sum of counter variable i from 1 to the number of horizontal divisions. Also, swept area AE in equation (4) is the area of ​​rotor surface E.

[0032] 7 is a flowchart of a rotor equivalent wind speed power curve calculation processing routine. This processing is executed by the power curve estimation unit 46. When the process proceeds to step S22 in FIG. 7, a counter variable j is initially set to "1." The counter variable j is a variable that changes within a range from "1" to the number of samples jm. The number of samples jm is the number of wind speeds that are sample points of the hub height wind speed power curve CHH (see FIG. 2) and the rotor equivalent wind speed power curve. For example, in FIG. 2, if the wind speeds in the range of 0 to 25 m / s are set at 1 m / s intervals as sample points, the number of samples jm becomes "26."

[0033] In the following description, the hub height wind speed u corresponding to the counter variable j HH , power output P HH and rotor equivalent wind speed u RE , respectively. HH,j , P HH,j and u RE,jNext, when the process proceeds to step S24, the power curve estimation unit 46 calculates the hub height wind speed u for the j-th sampling point from the hub height wind speed power curve CHH (see FIG. 2). HH,j The power output P corresponding to this hub height wind speed HH,j Next, when the process proceeds to step S26, the power curve estimation unit 46 calls the rotor equivalent wind speed calculation routine (FIG. 6) described above, and obtains the hub height wind speed u HH,j The rotor equivalent wind speed u corresponding to RE,j Get.

[0034] Next, when the process proceeds to step S28 (power curve estimation process), the power curve estimation unit 46 calculates the rotor equivalent wind speed u RE,j and power output P HH,j For example, in the power curve CHH for hub height wind speed in Figure 2, the hub height wind speed u HH,j When is 10 [m / s], the power output P HH,j The hub height wind speed u HH,j When is 10 [m / s], the corresponding rotor equivalent wind speed u RE,j is 10.2 [m / s]. Then, the power curve estimating unit 46 calculates u RE,j = 10.2 [m / s] and the power output P HH,j =3100[kW] and

[0035] Next, when the process proceeds to step S30, the power curve estimating unit 46 determines whether the counter variable j is less than the number of samples jm. If the determination here is "Yes," the process proceeds to step S32, where the power curve estimating unit 46 increments the counter variable j by "1." Thereafter, the operations of steps S24 to S28 are repeated. On the other hand, if the determination in step S30 is "No," the process proceeds to step S34.

[0036] In step S34, the power curve estimation unit 46 creates power curve data. By the processes in steps S22 to S30 described above, the rotor equivalent wind speed u is calculated for all counter variables j from "1" to the number of samples jm. RE,j and power output P HH,j The power curve estimation unit 46 then calculates the rotor equivalent wind speed u RE,j , the vertical axis is the power generation output P HH,j In the graph (not shown), (u RE,j ,P HH,j ) are interpolated to create power curve data representing the rotor equivalent wind speed power curve. This completes the processing of this routine. The power curve data can then be displayed via the output unit 42 or printed out.

[0037] In addition to the above-described processing, it is more preferable that the output unit 42 displays or prints out the wind speed vertical distribution function GX in a format such as that shown in FIG. 3. This allows the user to understand at a glance what wind speed vertical distribution function GX the rotor equivalent wind speed power curve was calculated based on. When displaying or printing out the wind speed vertical distribution function GX, it is more preferable to highlight the range above ground level from the bottom end EB to the top end ET of the rotor surface E. For example, it is preferable to make the line thickness in the range from the bottom end EB to the top end ET thicker than in other ranges.

[0038] [Second embodiment] <Configuration of the second embodiment> 8 is a block diagram of a generated power estimation device 50 according to the second embodiment. In the following description, parts corresponding to those in the first embodiment described above are given the same reference numerals, and their description may be omitted. The power generation estimation device 50 (estimation device, computer), like the power curve estimation device 40 of the first embodiment, includes an input unit 41, an output unit 42, a range division unit 43, a divided range wind speed estimation unit 44, a rotor equivalent wind speed calculation unit 45, and a power curve estimation unit 46.

[0039] Furthermore, the generated power estimation device 50 includes a generated power output calculation unit 52. The generated power output calculation unit 52 calculates the rotor equivalent wind speed u RE Based on the rotor equivalent wind speed power curve, the power output P HH This is to calculate the following.

[0040] <Operation of the second embodiment> FIG. 9 is a flowchart of a power generation output calculation routine in the second embodiment. When the process proceeds to step S42 in FIG. 9, the division range wind speed estimation unit 44 calculates the rotor equivalent wind speed u based on the input wind speed data. RE This "wind speed data" is calculated based on the hub height wind speed u HH Only the hub height and wind speed u HH In addition to the hub height z HH The process of step S42 is the same as the process of the rotor equivalent wind speed calculation routine (FIG. 6) in the first embodiment.

[0041] Next, when the process proceeds to step S44, the power curve estimation unit 46 calculates a rotor-equivalent wind speed power curve based on the hub-height wind speed power curve CHH (see FIG. 2) and the wind speed vertical distribution function GX (see FIG. 3). The process of step S44 is the same as the process of the rotor-equivalent wind speed power curve calculation process routine (FIG. 7) in the first embodiment.

[0042] Next, when the process proceeds to step S46, the power curve estimation unit 46 calculates a rotor-equivalent wind speed power curve based on the hub-height wind speed power curve CHH (see FIG. 2) and the wind speed vertical distribution function GX (see FIG. 3). The process of step S44 is the same as the process of the rotor-equivalent wind speed power curve calculation process routine (FIG. 7) in the first embodiment.

[0043] Next, when the process proceeds to step S46, the power generation output calculation unit 52 calculates the rotor equivalent wind speed u obtained in S42 from the rotor equivalent wind speed power curve obtained in S44.RE The power output P corresponding to HH This reads out the input wind speed data and the calculated rotor equivalent wind speed u RE The power output P corresponding to HH Get.

[0044] The input wind speed data may be the wind speed at a certain time or may be a time series wind speed. When the input wind speed data is the wind speed at a certain time, the rotor equivalent wind speed u RE and power output P HH On the other hand, if the input wind speed data is a time series of wind speed, the rotor equivalent wind speed u RE and power output P HH are all time series data.

[0045] [Third embodiment] <Configuration of the third embodiment> 10 is a block diagram of a generated power estimation device 60 according to the third embodiment. In the following description, parts corresponding to those in the other embodiments described above are given the same reference numerals, and their description may be omitted. Similar to the generated power estimation device 50 according to the second embodiment, the generated power estimation device 60 (estimation device, computer) includes an input unit 41, an output unit 42, a range division unit 43, a divided range wind speed estimation unit 44, a rotor equivalent wind speed calculation unit 45, a power curve estimation unit 46, and a generated power calculation unit 52. Furthermore, the generated power estimation device 60 includes a wind speed vertical distribution calculation unit 62.

[0046] In this embodiment, time-series wind speed data is input from the wind direction and speed measurement unit 128 (see FIG. 1) to the input unit 41. This wind speed data may include wind speeds at a plurality of heights above ground. For example, the wind speed data may include a hub height wind speed u HH, the wind speed at the upper end ET of the rotor surface E (see FIG. 1), and the wind speed at the lower end EB of the rotor surface E. The wind speed vertical distribution calculation unit 62 calculates the wind speed vertical distribution function GX (see FIG. 3) based on the input wind speed data. As a result, even in a situation where the wind speed vertical distribution function GX is not provided from outside, the generated power estimation device 60 can estimate the generated power output P HH can be calculated.

[0047] <Operation of the Third Embodiment> 11 is a flowchart of a power generation output calculation routine in the third embodiment. This routine calculates a wind speed vertical distribution function GX suitable for input wind speed data to calculate a power generation output P HH This is to calculate the following. 11, when the process proceeds to step S61, the wind speed vertical distribution calculation unit 62 calculates a wind speed vertical distribution function GX based on wind speeds at multiple ground heights. For example, when applying a power law to the wind speed vertical distribution function GX, the parameter N shown in equation (1) is determined, and when applying a logarithmic law, the zero plane displacement d and the roughness length z0 are determined.

[0048] The processes in the following steps S62, S64, and S66 are the same as the processes in steps S42, S44, and S46 in the second embodiment. That is, in step S62, the divided range wind speed estimator 44 calculates the rotor equivalent wind speed u based on the wind speed vertical distribution function GX calculated in step S61. RE Next, in step S64, the power curve estimation unit 46 calculates a rotor equivalent wind speed power curve based on this wind speed vertical distribution function GX. Next, in step S66, the power generation output calculation unit 52 calculates the rotor equivalent wind speed u obtained in S62 from the rotor equivalent wind speed power curve obtained in S64. RE The power output P corresponding to HH Read out.

[0049] Fig. 12 is an explanatory diagram of the operation of the third embodiment, which shows the operation of calculating the wind speed vertical distribution function GX based on wind speeds at a plurality of ground heights. Graph GA in Fig. 12 shows the time series of wind speed at heights of 40 m, 100 m, and 160 m above ground. These heights are measured at the bottom EB of the rotor surface E and the hub height z HH , and the upper end ET of the rotor surface E, respectively.

[0050] Graph GB1 is a scatter plot of the wind speed at each height above ground at time t1 in graph GA, plotted alongside the height above ground. At time t1, the wind speed at 40m above ground is 4.2m / s, the wind speed at 100m above ground is 5.0m / s, and the wind speed at 160m above ground is 5.6m / s. Therefore, if the wind speed vertical distribution function GX follows a power law, the parameter N (see equation (1)) at time t1 is 5.0.

[0051] Graph GB2 is a scatter plot of the wind speed at each height above ground at time t2 in graph GA. At time t2, the wind speed at 40m above ground is 3.8m / s, the wind speed at 100m above ground is 5.0m / s, and the wind speed at 160m above ground is 5.9m / s. Therefore, if the wind speed vertical distribution function GX follows a power law, the parameter N (see equation (1)) at time t1 is 3.1.

[0052] According to graphs GB1 and GB2, the wind speed at an altitude of 100 m above ground is the same at 5.0 m / s at both times t1 and t2. However, the wind speeds at altitudes of 40 m and 160 m above ground are different at both times, and therefore, as mentioned above, the values ​​of parameter N at times t1 and t2 are different. Graph GC also shows the transition of parameter N over time. At each time, parameter N is calculated using the power law in Figure 12.

[0053] [Effects of the embodiment] As described above, according to each of the above-described embodiments, the estimation device (40, 50, 60) calculates the estimated wind speed u in each of the divided ranges E1 to E5. i a division range wind speed estimator 44 that calculates the estimated wind speed u i The division range E i Area A iBy weighting the average with RE and a rotor equivalent wind speed calculation unit 45 that calculates the hub height wind speed u HH and power output P HH Based on the power curve CHH for hub height wind speed, which is a combination of RE and power output P HH and a power curve estimating unit 46 for estimating a rotor equivalent wind speed power curve, which is a combination of the above. This makes it possible to obtain a rotor equivalent wind speed power curve by estimation, and the power output P HH will be able to predict with high accuracy.

[0054] The power curve estimation unit 46 also calculates the hub height wind speed u included in the hub height wind speed power curve CHH. HH , the corresponding rotor equivalent wind speed u RE Calculate the rotor equivalent wind speed u RE and the hub height wind speed u HH The power output P corresponding to HH This makes it possible to obtain a rotor equivalent wind speed power curve by utilizing the data included in the hub height wind speed power curve CHH.

[0055] In addition, as in the estimation devices (50, 60) of the second and third embodiments, the rotor equivalent wind speed u RE and the rotor equivalent wind speed power curve, the power output P HH It is more preferable that the power generation output calculation unit 52 further calculates the power generation output P HH can be obtained quickly.

[0056] Also, like the estimation device (60) of the third embodiment, the estimation device (60) further includes a wind speed vertical distribution calculation unit 62 that calculates a wind speed vertical distribution function GX that represents the relationship between the ground height and the wind speed based on wind speed data at a plurality of ground heights, and the power generation output calculation unit 52 calculates the power generation output P HH It is more preferable to calculate the wind speed vertical distribution function GX according to the content of the wind speed data, and the power generation output PHH can be calculated with even greater accuracy.

[0057] Furthermore, it is more preferable that the estimation device (40, 50, 60) of each embodiment further includes an output unit 42 that displays the wind speed vertical distribution function GX as a graph with wind speed and height above ground as axes, and that displays the range of height above ground from the bottom end EB to the top end ET of the rotor surface E in a more emphasized manner than other ranges. This allows the user to understand at a glance what wind speed vertical distribution function GX the rotor equivalent wind speed power curve was calculated based on.

[0058] [Variations] The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments and various modifications are possible. The above-described embodiments are provided as examples to facilitate understanding of the present invention and are not necessarily limited to those including all of the described configurations. Furthermore, it is possible to replace part of the configuration of one embodiment with the configuration of another embodiment, or to add the configuration of another embodiment to the configuration of one embodiment. It is also possible to delete part of the configuration of each embodiment, or to add or replace other configurations. Furthermore, the control lines and information lines shown in the figures are those considered necessary for explanation, and do not necessarily represent all control lines and information lines necessary for the product. In reality, it is acceptable to consider that almost all components are interconnected. Possible modifications of the above-described embodiments include, for example, the following:

[0059] (1) The hardware of the power curve estimation device 40 and the power generation estimation devices 50, 60 in the above embodiments can be realized by a general computer. Therefore, the processes corresponding to the above-mentioned block diagrams and flowcharts, as well as programs for executing the various processes described above, may be stored on a storage medium (a computer-readable storage medium on which a program is recorded) or distributed via a transmission path.

[0060] (2) In the above embodiment, the processes corresponding to the block diagrams and flowcharts, as well as the various other processes described above, are described as software processes using programs. However, some or all of these processes may be replaced with hardware processes using an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) or an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), etc. [Explanation of symbols]

[0061] 40 Power curve estimator (estimator, computer) 42 Output section 44 Division range wind speed estimation unit (division range wind speed estimation means) 45 Rotor equivalent wind speed calculation unit (rotor equivalent wind speed calculation means) 46 Power curve estimation unit (power curve estimation means) 50, 60 Power generation estimation device (estimation device, computer) 52 Power generation output calculation section 62 Wind speed vertical distribution calculation section 120 Wind Turbine 122 Blade 124 Hub E Rotor surface EB bottom edge ET top GX Wind speed vertical distribution function CHH Hub height wind speed power curve Step S6 (Split-area wind speed estimation process) Step S12 (rotor equivalent wind speed calculation process) S28 Step (Power curve estimation process) A i area E i Split Range u i Estimated wind speed P HH Power generation output u HH Hub height wind speed u RE Rotor equivalent wind speed

Claims

1. a divided range wind speed estimator that defines divided ranges as multiple ranges obtained by horizontally dividing a rotor surface of a wind power generator having a rotor with a hub and blades that rotate around the hub, and calculates an estimated wind speed in each divided range based on a hub height wind speed at the height of the hub and a wind speed vertical distribution function that represents the distribution of wind speed in the vertical direction; a rotor equivalent wind speed calculation unit that calculates a rotor equivalent wind speed by weighting the estimated wind speed with the area of ​​the divided range; a power curve estimating unit that estimates a rotor equivalent wind speed power curve, which is a combination of the rotor equivalent wind speed and the power generation output, based on a hub height wind speed power curve, which is a combination of the hub height wind speed and the power generation output. An estimation device characterized by:

2. The power curve estimation unit calculates the rotor equivalent wind speed corresponding to each of the hub-height wind speeds included in the hub-height wind speed power curve, and combines the calculated rotor equivalent wind speed with the power generation output corresponding to the hub-height wind speed.

2. The estimation device according to claim 1 .

3. The rotor-equivalent wind speed power curve is a power output curve for calculating the power output of the rotor.

2. The estimation device according to claim 1 .

4. a wind speed vertical distribution calculation unit that calculates a wind speed vertical distribution function that represents a relationship between the ground height and the wind speed based on wind speed data at a plurality of ground heights; The power generation output calculation unit calculates the power generation output based on the calculated wind speed vertical distribution function.

4. The estimation device according to claim 3.

5. The wind speed vertical distribution function is displayed as a graph with wind speed and height above ground as axes, and an output unit is further provided that displays a range of height above ground from the lower end to the upper end of the rotor surface in a more emphasized manner than other ranges.

2. The estimation device according to claim 1 .

6. a divided range wind speed estimation process for calculating an estimated wind speed in each divided range based on a hub height wind speed at the height of the hub and a wind speed vertical distribution function that represents the distribution of wind speed in the vertical direction, the divided range being a plurality of ranges obtained by horizontally dividing a rotor surface of a wind power generator having a rotor with a hub and blades that rotate around the hub; a rotor equivalent wind speed calculation step of calculating a rotor equivalent wind speed by weighting the estimated wind speed by the area of ​​the divided range; a power curve estimation step of estimating a rotor equivalent wind speed power curve, which is a combination of the rotor equivalent wind speed and the power output, based on the hub height wind speed power curve, which is a combination of the hub height wind speed and the power output, and generating power curve data representing the estimated rotor equivalent wind speed power curve. A method for producing power curve data, comprising:

7. Computer, a divided range wind speed estimation means for calculating an estimated wind speed in each divided range based on a hub height wind speed at the height of the hub and a wind speed vertical distribution function that represents the distribution of wind speed in the vertical direction, the divided range being a plurality of ranges obtained by horizontally dividing a rotor surface of a wind power generator having a rotor having a hub and blades that rotate around the hub; a rotor equivalent wind speed calculation means for calculating a rotor equivalent wind speed by weighting the estimated wind speed with the area of ​​the divided range; a power curve estimation means for estimating a rotor equivalent wind speed power curve, which is a combination of the rotor equivalent wind speed and the power generation output, based on a hub height wind speed power curve, which is a combination of the hub height wind speed and the power generation output; A program to function as a

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