Power system, information processing device, power supply planning method, and program

Abstract

To provide a technology that improves the prediction accuracy for power supply demand in a power control system while suppressing increases in operational costs.SOLUTION: A power system has a power supply, load equipment, demand prediction means for calculating a demand prediction value which is a prior prediction of the power demand by the load equipment within a predetermined period, demand reliability calculation means for calculating in advance a demand reliability which is the reliability of the demand prediction value, and demand recalculation planning means for creating a demand recalculation plan which is a plan for performing recalculation of the demand prediction value within the predetermined period on the basis of the demand reliability. The demand recalculation planning means is characterized by recalculating the demand forecast value within the predetermined period on the basis of the demand recalculation plan.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a power system, an information processing device, a power supply plan creation method, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] In recent years, technologies have become widespread in facilities such as offices and homes, where power generation equipment such as storage batteries and solar power generation systems are installed and connected to the commercial power grid to efficiently supply power to the load within the facility. Specifically, this involves predicting the power consumption due to the load within the facility and the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment in advance (the day before), creating an operation plan for the day based on these predictions, and controlling the power supply and power generation for that day based on this operation plan.

[0003] However, it is impossible to completely predict the amount of power consumed and the amount of power generated by natural energy, and they involve uncertainty. For this reason, in practice, control is carried out based on predicted values ​​in advance (the day before) assuming uncertainty, and it is known that to deal with errors between the predicted and actual values, real-time predictions are made on the day and recalculation (readjustment) is carried out (for example, Patent Documents 1 and 2).

[0004] These technologies enable the forecast values ​​to be recalculated based on the weather and actual power consumption on the day, and power to be supplied to the load based on an operation plan that has been revised to be more realistic. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0005] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2015-12783 [Patent Document 2] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2007-28739 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0006] However, with technologies such as those described in the above patent documents, continuous calculations and communication processes for making real-time predictions based on the day's performance must be performed on a high-speed, low-load platform, which results in high costs related to calculations and communication.

[0007] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above-described circumstances, and aims to provide a technology that can improve the prediction accuracy of power supply and demand in a power control system while suppressing increases in operating costs. [Means for solving the problem]

[0008] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention employs the following configuration: Power supply and a load device that receives power from the power source; a demand prediction means for calculating a demand prediction value that is a prior prediction of the power demand of the load device within a predetermined period; a demand reliability calculation means for calculating in advance a demand reliability, which is the reliability of the demand forecast value; a demand recalculation planning means for creating a demand recalculation plan in advance, the demand recalculation plan being a plan for recalculating the demand forecast value within the predetermined period based on the demand reliability; It has the demand forecasting means recalculates the demand forecast value within the predetermined period based on the demand recalculation plan; The present invention is a power system characterized by the above.

[0009] The term "power source" as used herein includes power generation facilities, power grids, and storage batteries. The term "load equipment" also includes storage batteries. The "predetermined period" can be, for example, the 24 hours from 00:00 to 23:59 immediately preceding the current time. "In advance" means before the start of the "predetermined period" in question. In this specification, the "predetermined period" may be referred to as the current day, and the day that is the subject of "in advance" may be referred to as the day before.

[0010] With this configuration, it is possible to schedule recalculations in advance based on the reliability of the demand forecast value, such that if the reliability is low, the frequency of recalculation for that day is increased, and if the reliability is high, the frequency of recalculation is decreased. As a result, recalculation can be performed according to a pre-planned plan, eliminating the need for constant calculations and communications, thereby simultaneously improving the accuracy of the forecast for that day and preventing increases in calculation and communication costs.

[0011] Furthermore, the demand recalculation planning means may create the demand recalculation plan that specifies not to recalculate the demand forecast value if the demand reliability exceeds a predetermined threshold. In other words, if the reliability is sufficiently high, it can be determined in advance not to recalculate the demand forecast value on that day, thereby more effectively preventing an increase in operating costs.

[0012] In addition, the demand reliability calculation means may calculate the demand reliability using the demand forecast value and past demand actual data for the load equipment, where the parameters related to the calculation of the demand reliability are the same as or similar to the parameters for the specified period for which the demand reliability is to be calculated.

[0013] Since electricity demand is easily affected by weather and the day of the week (or whether it is a business day or a holiday), variable conditions such as weather, outside temperature, hours of sunshine, and day of the week can be set as parameters for calculating reliability, and by using actual data from a specified period in the past where the variable conditions are similar to the specified period to be predicted, a highly reliable reliability value can be obtained.

[0014] The demand reliability calculation means may calculate the reliability based on a value obtained by dividing a mean absolute error between the demand forecast value and the plurality of actual load values ​​by an average value of the plurality of actual load values, using the plurality of actual load values. In this way, a highly reliable reliability value can be obtained while suppressing the calculation load.

[0015] The power system may further include a supply plan creation means for creating a power supply plan, which is a plan for power supply to the load equipment within the specified period, using at least the demand forecast value, and the supply plan creation means may recreate the power supply plan within the specified period using at least the demand forecast value recalculated based on the demand recalculation plan.

[0016] The power supply plan referred to here includes the supply and cutoff of power to load equipment, the exchange of power with the commercial power grid, the charging and discharging of storage batteries if they are provided, and the generation of power by power generation equipment if they are provided. In other words, it can be said to be a plan related to power control in the power system, such as "when," "where," "how much," and "from where" power will be used.

[0017] The power system includes a power generation device as the power source, a power generation prediction means for calculating a power generation prediction value that is a prior prediction of the amount of power generated by the power generation device within the predetermined period; a power generation reliability calculation means for calculating in advance a power generation reliability that is the reliability of the power generation prediction value; a power generation recalculation planning means for creating a power generation recalculation plan, which is a plan for recalculating the power generation forecast value within the predetermined period, based on the power generation reliability; and the power generation prediction means recalculates the power generation prediction value within the predetermined period based on the power generation recalculation plan; The supply plan creation means may create the power supply plan using the predicted power generation value, and may recreate the power supply plan within the specified period using the predicted power generation value recalculated based on the power generation recalculation plan.

[0018] The term "power generation equipment" as used herein includes renewable energy power generation equipment such as solar power generation equipment and wind power generation equipment, as well as so-called fuel cells. Furthermore, when a power generation equipment is included as a power source, the "supply plan" described above can be considered a power transfer plan that includes not only the supply of power to the load but also a plan for selling power to the power grid. The amount of power generated by the power generation equipment is also predicted in advance and corrected (recalculated) in real time on the day. Therefore, by creating a recalculation schedule (including the case where recalculation is not performed) in advance and recalculating the amount of power generated on the day according to this schedule, as in the above configuration, continuous calculation and communication are not required, thereby preventing increases in costs.

[0019] The present invention can also be understood as an information processing device as follows: An information processing device that creates a plan related to power supply to a load device, a demand prediction means for calculating a demand prediction value that is a prior prediction of the power demand of the load equipment within a predetermined period; a demand reliability calculation means for calculating in advance a demand reliability which is the reliability of the demand forecast value; a demand recalculation planning means for creating a demand recalculation plan, which is a plan for recalculating the demand forecast value within the predetermined period, based on the demand reliability; a power supply plan creating means for creating a power supply plan relating to power supply to the load devices within the predetermined period using at least the demand forecast value; It has the demand forecasting means recalculates the demand forecast value within the predetermined period based on the demand recalculation plan; the supply plan creation means recreates the power supply plan for the predetermined period by using at least the demand forecast value recalculated based on the demand recalculation plan. The information processing device is characterized in that:

[0020] The present invention can also be understood as a power supply plan creation method as follows: A power supply plan creation method for creating a plan related to power supply to load devices, comprising: a demand prediction step of calculating a demand prediction value that is a prior prediction of power demand by the load device within a predetermined period; a demand reliability calculation step of calculating in advance a demand reliability that is the reliability of the demand forecast value; a demand recalculation planning step of creating a demand recalculation plan in advance, the demand recalculation plan being a plan for implementing recalculation of the demand forecast value within the predetermined period, based on the demand reliability; a supply plan creation step of creating a power supply plan related to power supply to the load devices within the predetermined period using at least the demand forecast value; a demand forecast recalculation step of recalculating the demand forecast value within the predetermined period based on the demand recalculation plan; a supply plan re-creation step of re-creating the power supply plan for the predetermined period by using the demand forecast value recalculated based on at least the demand recalculation plan; having The present invention provides a power supply plan creation method.

[0021] The present invention can also be understood as a program for causing an information processing device to execute the above-described method, or as a computer-readable recording medium on which such a program is non-transitoryly recorded.

[0022] Furthermore, the above-described configurations and processes can be combined with each other to constitute the present invention as long as no technical contradiction occurs. [Effects of the Invention]

[0023] According to the present invention, it is possible to provide a technique that can improve the prediction accuracy of power supply and demand in a power control system and suppress an increase in operation costs. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0024] [Figure 1]FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an outline of a power system according to the first embodiment. [Figure 2] FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating an outline of the hardware configuration of the control device according to the first embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 3 is a functional block diagram illustrating an outline of the functional configuration of the control device according to the first embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing an outline of a power system according to the second embodiment. [Figure 5] FIG. 5 is a functional block diagram illustrating an outline of the functional configuration of the control device according to the second embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 6 is a flowchart illustrating an example of the flow of processing performed by the control device according to the second embodiment. [Figure 7] FIG. 7 is a block diagram showing an outline of a power system according to the third embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 8 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of the control device and the server device according to the third embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0025] Hereinafter, an example of an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

[0026] <Application example> The present invention can be applied, for example, as a control device 10 used in a power system 1 as shown in Figures 1 to 3. As shown in Figure 1, the power system 1 includes a plurality of loads 50 (50a to 50n), a storage battery 20, a BMU (Battery Management Unit) 21, and a PCS (Power Conditioning System) 30, and is connected to a commercial power system K.

[0027] The control device 10 communicates information with the BMU 21, PCS 30, etc., and controls the power supply to the load 50 according to a plan created in advance (for example, the day before). The control device 10 is also connected to a communication network N, and is configured to be able to communicate information with outside the system.

[0028] 3, the control device 10 includes a demand forecasting unit 101, a demand reliability calculation unit 102, a demand recalculation planning unit 103, a supply plan creation unit 104, and a control signal generation unit 105. Each of these functional modules may be realized, for example, by a CPU reading and executing a program stored in a storage device.

[0029] The demand forecasting unit 101 calculates a demand forecast value that is a prior forecast of the power demand due to the load 50 at least for the current day (the 24 hours from 00:00 to 23:59). The forecasting unit 101 calculates a demand forecast value based on information on the weather of the day (weather, outside temperature, sunshine hours, etc.), information on the day of the week, etc., acquired via the communication network N.

[0030] The demand reliability calculation unit 102 calculates the demand reliability, which is the reliability of the demand forecast value for that day. Specifically, variable conditions such as weather, outside temperature, sunshine hours, and day of the week are set as parameters for calculating the reliability, past actual data whose parameters match or are similar to those for that day is selected, and the reliability is calculated using the actual power demand (consumption) data from the selected past data and the demand forecast value calculated by the demand forecasting unit 101. For example, if multiple pieces of past data are available, the reliability may be calculated based on the value obtained by dividing the mean absolute error (MAE) between the demand forecast value and the multiple actual values ​​by the average value of the multiple actual values. Furthermore, a mean squared error may be used instead of the mean absolute error. Note that external weather forecast data obtained via the communication network N may be used as a parameter for the weather on the day to be predicted.

[0031] The demand recalculation planning unit 103 creates in advance a schedule for recalculating the demand forecast value for the day (demand recalculation plan) based on the demand reliability calculated by the demand reliability calculation unit 102. If the demand reliability calculated by the demand reliability calculation unit 102 is low, the number of recalculations during the day will increase, and if the demand reliability is high, the number of recalculations during the day will decrease. Furthermore, if the demand reliability is sufficiently high, it is possible to make a plan that does not involve recalculating the demand forecast value for the day.

[0032] The demand forecasting unit 101 recalculates the demand forecast value within the day in accordance with the schedule created by the demand recalculation planning unit 103. That is, the control device 10 according to this application example does not constantly (in real time) collect information that affects the power supply and demand within the day, nor does it recalculate the demand forecast value in real time based on the actual value of power consumption by the load 50 on the day.

[0033] The control device 10 according to the application example described above obtains a predicted value of the power demand of the load 50 in advance, calculates the reliability of the predicted demand value, creates a schedule for recalculating the predicted power demand value for the day according to the reliability, and then performs the recalculation for the day in accordance with the schedule, thereby reducing the recalculation cost (device load) for the day and improving the prediction accuracy of the power supply and demand.

[0034] <Embodiment 1> (System Overview) Next, embodiments of the present invention will be described in more detail with reference to the drawings, including those already described. The power system 1 according to this embodiment has the same configuration as that described in the application example. That is, the power system 1 includes a control device 10, a storage battery 20, a BMU 21, a PCS 30, a distribution board 40, a plurality of loads 50 (50a...50n), and an energy meter 60, and is interconnected with a commercial power system K. Note that, below, the same reference numerals are used for the same configurations and processes as those already described, and detailed description thereof will be omitted.

[0035] The control device 10 can be, for example, a general-purpose computer, and is connected to the BMU 21, PCS 30, and watt-hour meter 60 so that they can communicate with each other, and is also connected to a communication network N via a gateway (not shown), and controls the power supplied to the load 50 using various information. Fig. 2 is a block diagram showing an outline of the hardware configuration of the control device 10. As shown in Fig. 2, the control device 10 includes, as its components, a processor 91, a memory 92, an input interface (IF) 93, an output IF 94, and a communication IF 95, which are connected to each other by a connection bus 90.

[0036] The processor 91 is, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit). Any arithmetic processing device such as a PLC, an MPU (Micro-Processing Unit), or a DSP (Digital Signal Processor) can be used.

[0037] The memory 92 may be a flash memory or a RAM (Random Access Memory), though not shown. The memory 92 includes a main storage device such as a Programmable ROM (Programmable Read Only Memory) or a Read Only Memory (ROM), and an auxiliary storage device such as a Solid State Drive (SSD), an Erasable Programmable ROM (EPROM), a flash memory, a USB memory, or a Secure Digital (SD) memory card. The memory 92 stores information such as programs executed by the processor 91, data processed by the processor 91, operation setting information, and past performance value data (described later). The programs stored in the memory 92 are executed by the processor 91, which controls each component of the control device 10, thereby realizing each functional unit that fulfills a predetermined purpose.

[0038] Examples of the input IF 93 include various input devices such as a keyboard, mouse, camera, and microphone. Examples of the output IF 94 include various output devices such as a display, speaker, and printer. A touch panel display can also be used as a configuration that serves both as the input IF 93 and the output IF. The communication IF 95 can be configured appropriately depending on the connection method with the communication network N to be connected (wired or wireless, connection standard, etc.).

[0039] The storage battery 20 is a known secondary battery such as a lithium-ion battery, and is managed by the BMU 21 to ensure safe operation. The BMU 21 monitors the temperature, voltage, etc. of the storage battery 20, controls the charging and discharging of the storage battery 20 based on information from the control device 10, and measures the charging and discharging power and transmits it to the control device 10.

[0040] The storage battery may be one that can be used separately from the power system 1, such as a storage battery mounted on an electric vehicle (EV). That is, the power system 1 according to the present invention is a V2H (Vehicle to Home) system that connects a drive storage battery mounted on an EV or the like to the electrical system of a facility, enabling bidirectional power supply. The system may also function as a Vehicle to Home (V2L) system, which enables power to be supplied to general household electrical appliances from an on-board storage battery.

[0041] The PCS 30 functions as a bidirectional DC / AC inverter, converting DC power sent from the storage battery 20 into AC power and sending it to the distribution board 40, and also converting AC power supplied from the commercial power system K into DC power and sending it to the storage battery 20. The distribution board 40 distributes the power sent from the commercial power system K and the PCS 30 to each load. The watt-hour meter 60 measures the power sent from the commercial power system K (i.e., purchased power) and the power supplied to the commercial power system K, and sends the measured values ​​to the control device 10, etc.

[0042] (Functional configuration of the control device) Fig. 3 is a block diagram showing an outline of the functional configuration of the control device 10. As shown in Fig. 3, the control device 10 includes functional units, such as a demand forecasting unit 101, a demand reliability calculation unit 102, a demand recalculation planning unit 103, a supply plan creation unit 104, a control signal generation unit 105, an input unit 106, an output unit 107, a storage unit 108, and a communication unit 109. Note that the functional units of the demand forecasting unit 101, the demand reliability calculation unit 102, and the demand recalculation planning unit 103 are the same as those described in the application example, and therefore detailed description thereof will be omitted.

[0043] The supply plan creation unit 104 uses the demand forecast value calculated by the demand forecast unit 101 to The supply plan creation unit 104 creates a power supply plan which is a plan related to the power supply to the load 50 in the load recalculation plan creation unit 103. The supply plan creation unit 104 also recreates the power supply plan for the current day by using the demand forecast value for the current day recalculated based on the demand recalculation plan created by the demand recalculation plan creation unit 103.

[0044] The control signal generating unit 105 generates a signal for controlling the power supply to each load 50 in accordance with the power supply plan created by the supply plan creating unit 104. Power is supplied to each load 50 based on the generated signal.

[0045] The input unit 106 is realized by the above-mentioned input IF 93, and transmits various input signals input via various input devices to the processor 91. The output unit 107 is realized by the above-mentioned output IF 94, and outputs various information via an output device such as a display. The storage unit 108 is realized by the above-mentioned memory 92, and stores various information. The communication unit 109 is realized by the communication IF 95, and communicates information with other devices via the communication network N, etc.

[0046] As part of the information stored in the storage unit 108, past actual values ​​of power supply to the load 50 are stored in association with the variable conditions related to reliability calculation. Specifically, for example, actual values ​​of daily power supply (such as the daily average power consumption) are stored in association with parameters such as the weather, average temperature, sunshine hours, and day of the week for that day. Information on past power consumption and its corresponding parameters is collectively referred to as "past data." The demand reliability calculation unit 102 extracts actual values ​​that match or are similar to the parameters for the day being predicted from such past data, and calculates demand reliability by using these values ​​together with the predicted values ​​calculated by the demand prediction unit 101.

[0047] According to the power system 1 as shown in the above embodiment, it is possible to create a power supply plan for the day using a demand forecast value and to control the power supply for the day based on the power supply plan. Also, by setting in advance a schedule for recalculating the demand forecast value for the day according to the reliability of the demand forecast value, the demand forecast value can be recalculated on the day according to the reliability (and the power supply plan can be re-created accordingly), and since continuous calculations and communications are not performed, it is possible to create a power supply plan using accurate demand forecast values ​​and implement power control based on this.

[0048] (Variation) In the above embodiment, the demand reliability calculation unit 102 calculates the demand reliability, which is the reliability of the demand forecast value for the day, but the day may be divided into multiple time slots and the demand reliability for each time slot may be calculated. Specifically, the day may be divided into four time slots, each six hours long, for example, from 00:00 to 05:59, and the demand reliability for each time slot thus divided may be calculated by the method already described.

[0049] In this case, the demand recalculation planning unit 103 may also create a demand recalculation plan for each time period divided as described above, based on the demand reliability for each time period. In this way, a plan can be created that includes not performing recalculation for each time period (i.e., it is possible to set time periods during the day when recalculation is performed and time periods when recalculation is not performed), and a more detailed demand recalculation plan can be created.

[0050] <Embodiment 2> (System Overview) The present invention can also be applied to a power system equipped with a power generation facility as a power source. FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing an outline of a power system 2 equipped with a PV (Photovoltaic) system 270. In the power system 2 according to this embodiment, The same components as those in System 1 are given the same reference numerals, and detailed explanations thereof will be omitted.

[0051] 4, the power system 2 according to this embodiment includes a PV system 270 and is configured to use power generated by photovoltaic power generation. Accordingly, the power distribution system is divided into a system that distributes power to loads 50 via a general load distribution panel 240 and a system that distributes power to specific loads 250 (250a...250n) via a specific load distribution panel 241.

[0052] (Control device) The hardware configuration of the control device 11 according to this embodiment is the same as that of the control device 10 according to the first embodiment. That is, a general-purpose computer can be used. FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of the control device 11 according to this embodiment. As shown in FIG. 5, the control device 11 includes functional units, such as a demand prediction unit 101, a demand reliability calculation unit 102, a demand recalculation planning unit 103, a power generation prediction unit 201, a power generation reliability calculation unit 202, a power generation recalculation planning unit 203, a supply plan creation unit 204, a control signal generation unit 205, an input unit 106, an output unit 107, a storage unit 108, and a communication unit 109.

[0053] The power generation prediction unit 201 calculates a power generation prediction value, which is a prior prediction of the amount of power generated by the PV system 270 for at least the current day (the 24 hours from 00:00 to 23:59). Specifically, the power generation prediction unit 201 calculates the power generation prediction value by the PV system 270 based on weather information for the current day (outdoor temperature, hours of sunshine, etc.) acquired via the communication network N.

[0054] The power generation reliability calculation unit 202 calculates the power generation reliability, which is the reliability of the power generation forecast value for that day. Specifically, variable conditions such as outside temperature and sunshine hours are set as parameters for calculating the reliability, past performance data whose parameters match or are similar to those for that day is picked up, and the reliability is calculated using the performance of the power generation amount in the picked up past data and the power generation forecast value calculated by the power generation prediction unit 201. For example, the past data related to power generation may be stored in the storage unit 108 or may be obtained from outside via the communication network N. Note that the specific method for calculating the reliability can be the same as that of the demand reliability calculation unit 102.

[0055] The power generation recalculation planning unit 203 creates in advance a schedule for recalculating the predicted power generation value for the day (power generation recalculation plan) based on the power generation reliability calculated by the power generation reliability calculation unit 202. If the power generation reliability calculated by the power generation reliability calculation unit 202 is low, the number of recalculations during the day will be increased, and if the power generation reliability is high, the number of recalculations during the day will be decreased. Furthermore, if the power generation reliability is sufficiently high, it is possible to plan not to perform recalculation during the day.

[0056] The power generation prediction unit 201 recalculates the predicted power generation value within the day in accordance with the schedule created by the power generation recalculation planning unit 203. That is, the control device 11 according to this embodiment does not collect information that will affect the power supply and demand in real time within the day, nor does it recalculate the predicted power generation value in real time based on the actual value of power consumption by the PV system 270 on the day.

[0057] The supply plan creation unit 204 creates a plan for power supply to the load 50 and the specific load 250, and for power exchange (buying and selling) with the commercial power system K, using the demand forecast value calculated by the demand forecast unit 101 and the power generation forecast value calculated by the power generation forecast unit 201. That is, the "supply plan" in this embodiment can be said to be a "power exchange plan" that includes not only the power supply to the load 50 and the specific load 250, but also a power sales plan to the commercial power system K. In this embodiment, the supply plan creation unit 204 corresponds to the supply plan creation means in the present invention.

[0058] The supply plan creation unit 204 also creates a demand recalculation plan by using the demand recalculation plan created by the demand recalculation planning unit 103. The power supply plan is re-created for the day using the demand forecast value and power generation forecast value for the day recalculated based on the power generation recalculation plan created by the power generation recalculation planning unit 203.

[0059] The control signal generating unit 205 generates a signal for controlling the exchange of power within the power system 2 in accordance with the power supply plan created by the power supply plan creating unit 204. Based on the generated signal, power is supplied to the load 50 and the specific load 250, and power is exchanged with the commercial power system K.

[0060] The functional units of the demand forecasting unit 101, the demand reliability calculation unit 102, the demand recalculation planning unit 103, the input unit 106, the output unit 107, the memory unit 108, and the communication unit 109 are the same as those of the control device 10 of embodiment 1, and therefore will not be described here.

[0061] (Processing flow) Next, the flow of processing performed by the control device 11 will be described with reference to Fig. 6. Fig. 6 is a flowchart showing an example of the flow of processing performed by the control device 11. As shown in Fig. 6, the control device 11 first acquires variable conditions (weather conditions, day of the week information, etc.) for the target day (the most recent 24 hours from 00:00 to 23:59) via the communication network N or the like (S101).

[0062] Next, the control device 11 (demand forecasting unit 101, power generation forecasting unit 201) calculates a demand forecast value and a power generation forecast value for the day based on the acquired variable conditions (S102). Subsequently, the control device 11 (supply plan creation unit 204) uses the values ​​calculated in step S102 to create a plan for the power supply to the load 50 and the specific load 250 for the day, and the exchange of power with the commercial power system K (S103).

[0063] Furthermore, the control device 11 acquires past data related to the calculation of demand reliability and power generation reliability (S104). Note that the contents of the past data have already been explained, so a detailed explanation will be omitted. Then, the control device 11 (demand reliability calculation unit 102, power generation reliability calculation unit 202) calculates the demand reliability and power generation reliability, respectively, using the values ​​calculated in step S102 and the past data calculated in step S104 (S105).

[0064] Next, the control device 11 (demand recalculation planning unit 103, power generation recalculation planning unit 203) determines whether the demand reliability and power generation reliability calculated in step S105 exceed predetermined thresholds (S106). If it is determined in step S106 that they exceed the thresholds, the control device 11 (demand recalculation planning unit 103, power generation recalculation planning unit 203) creates a demand recalculation plan and a power generation recalculation plan that do not include recalculation during the day (S107). Thereafter, the control device 11 performs control during the day based on the power supply plan created in step S103, and ends the series of processes.

[0065] On the other hand, if it is determined in step S106 that the predicted value does not exceed the predetermined threshold, the control device 11 (demand recalculation planning unit 103, power generation recalculation planning unit 203) creates a demand recalculation plan and a power generation recalculation plan that specify the number of recalculations and the timing of recalculation during the day according to the level of reliability (S108). Then, the control device 11 (demand forecasting unit 101, power generation forecasting unit 201) recalculates the demand forecast value and the power generation forecast value during the day, respectively, in accordance with the demand recalculation plan and the power generation recalculation plan created in step S108 (S109). Subsequently, each time the demand forecast value and the power generation forecast value are recalculated, the control device 11 (supply plan creation unit 204) creates a power supply plan using the recalculated demand forecast value and the recalculated power generation forecast value (S110). Then, the control device 11 always performs control during the day based on the latest power supply plan, and the series of processes ends.

[0066] According to the control device 11 of this embodiment as described above, even if the power system 2 includes a power generation facility, a recalculation plan (including the case where recalculation is not performed) for the amount of power generated on that day can be created in advance, and recalculation for that day can be performed in accordance with this plan, thereby eliminating continuous calculations and communications and preventing increases in costs. Furthermore, since the recalculation plan for that day is created based on the reliability of the power generation prediction, the amount of power generated and power demand can be predicted with good prediction accuracy, and an operation system plan can be created based on this.

[0067] (Variation) In the second embodiment, the power generation reliability calculation unit 202 calculates the power generation reliability, which is the reliability of the power generation forecast value for the day. However, the day may be divided into a plurality of time slots, and the power generation reliability for each time slot may be calculated. Specifically, the day may be divided into four time slots, each six hours long, for example, from 00:00 to 05:59, and the power generation reliability for each time slot thus divided may be calculated by the method already described. The method for dividing the time slots is not limited to the above example, and may be based on, for example, the times of sunrise and sunset.

[0068] In this case, the power generation recalculation planning unit 203 may also create a power generation recalculation plan for each of the time periods divided as described above, based on the power generation reliability for each time period. In this way, a plan can be created that includes not performing recalculation for each time period (i.e., it is possible to set time periods during the day in which recalculation is performed and time periods in which it is not performed), and a more detailed power generation recalculation plan can be created.

[0069] <Embodiment 3> In the above embodiment, the control device 11 is configured to perform demand forecasting, power generation forecasting, demand reliability calculation, power generation reliability calculation, demand recalculation plan creation, power generation recalculation plan creation, and power supply plan creation. However, these functions may be performed by other devices instead of the control device. FIG. 7 is a block diagram showing an outline of a power system 3 according to such an embodiment. The power system 3 according to this embodiment is similar to the power system 2 according to the second embodiment, except that the configuration of the control device 12 is different from that of the control device 11 and that the power system 3 according to this embodiment includes a server device 15 connected to the control device 12 via a communication network N. The server device 15 can be realized as a computer including a processing unit such as a CPU, a main memory device such as a RAM or a ROM, an auxiliary memory device such as a HDD or a flash memory, a communication interface, etc., although not shown.

[0070] 8 is a block diagram showing an outline of the functional configuration of the control device 12 and the server device 15. The control device 12 according to this embodiment includes functional units, namely, a control signal generating unit 301, a communication unit 302, an input unit 303, an output unit 304, and a storage unit 305. The roles played by these functional units are the same as those of the control device 11, and therefore a repeated description thereof will be omitted here. That is, the configuration of the functional units of the control device 12 is the same as the configuration of the control device 11 except for the demand forecasting unit 101, the demand reliability calculation unit 102, the demand recalculation planning unit 103, the power generation forecasting unit 201, the power generation reliability calculation unit 202, the power generation recalculation planning unit 203, and the supply plan creation unit 204.

[0071] 8, the server device 15 includes functional units, namely, a demand forecasting unit 501, a demand reliability calculation unit 502, a demand recalculation planning unit 503, a power generation forecasting unit 504, a power generation reliability calculation unit 505, a power generation recalculation planning unit 506, a supply plan creation unit 507, and a communication unit 508. The roles played by these functional units are similar to those of the control device 11 of the second embodiment.

[0072] That is, in this embodiment, the server device 15 realizes the functions of predicting the power demand and the amount of power generated, calculating the reliability, creating a plan for recalculating the predicted values ​​of the power demand and the amount of power generated, and creating a power supply plan. The created power supply plan is then transmitted to the control device 12 via the communication network N, and the control device 12 (control signal generation unit 301) performs the following operations based on the received power supply plan: The control signal is generated by the load 50, the specific load 250, and the control relating to the power supply to the commercial power system K is executed by the control signal.

[0073] As described above, the present invention can also be realized in the form of cloud computing, and can provide various consumers (or many consumers) with the functions of predicting power demand and power generation, calculating reliability, creating plans to recalculate predicted values ​​of power demand and power generation, and creating power supply plans.

[0074] <Other> The above examples merely illustrate the present invention, and the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments described above. Various modifications of the present invention are possible within the scope of the technical concept. For example, although the power system has one storage battery in each of the above examples, the system may have a configuration including multiple storage batteries.

[0075] Furthermore, the power generation facilities in the second and third embodiments are not limited to PV systems, and may be other power generation facilities using renewable energy or fuel cells.

[0076] Furthermore, the order of the processes described in the second embodiment can also be changed as appropriate. For example, the order of the processes in steps S103 and S104 can be changed.

[0077] <Appendix 1> Power supply (K, 20, 270) and a load device (50, 250) that receives power from the power source; a demand forecasting means (101, 501) for calculating a demand forecast value that is a prior forecast of the power demand of the load equipment within a predetermined period; a demand reliability calculation means (102, 502) for calculating in advance a demand reliability which is the reliability of the demand forecast value; a demand recalculation planning means (103, 503) for creating a demand recalculation plan in advance, which is a plan for recalculating the demand forecast value within the predetermined period based on the demand reliability; It has the demand forecasting means recalculates the demand forecast value within the predetermined period based on the demand recalculation plan; A power system (1, 2, 3).

[0078] <Appendix 2> The demand recalculation planning means creating the demand recalculation plan, which specifies not to recalculate the demand forecast value when the demand reliability exceeds a predetermined threshold; 2. The power system of claim 1.

[0079] <Appendix 3> The demand reliability calculation means Calculating the demand reliability using the demand forecast value and past demand actual data for the load equipment, wherein parameters related to calculation of the demand reliability are identical or similar to the parameters for a predetermined period for which the demand reliability is to be calculated. 3. The power system according to claim 1 or 2,

[0080] <Appendix 4> The demand reliability calculation means Using a plurality of the load actual values, the reliability is calculated based on a value obtained by dividing a mean absolute error between the demand forecast value and the plurality of the load actual values ​​by an average value of the plurality of the load actual values. 4. The power system of claim 3.

[0081] <Appendix 5> The demand reliability calculation means calculates the demand reliability for each of a plurality of periods obtained by further dividing the predetermined period, the demand recalculation planning means creates the demand recalculation plan for each of the plurality of divided periods. 5. The power system of claim 1, wherein:

[0082] <Appendix 6> a power supply plan creation means (104, 204, 507) for creating a power supply plan, which is a plan related to power supply to the load equipment within the predetermined period, using at least the demand forecast value; the supply plan creation means recreates the power supply plan for the predetermined period by using at least the demand forecast value recalculated based on the demand recalculation plan. 6. The power system of claim 1,

[0083] <Appendix 7> The power source includes a power generator (270), power generation prediction means (201, 504) for calculating a power generation prediction value that is a prior prediction of the amount of power generated by the power generation device within the predetermined period; a power generation reliability calculation means (202, 505) for calculating in advance the power generation reliability, which is the reliability of the power generation prediction value; a power generation recalculation planning means (203, 506) for creating a power generation recalculation plan, which is a plan for recalculating the power generation forecast value within the predetermined period, based on the power generation reliability; and the power generation prediction means recalculates the power generation prediction value within the predetermined period based on the power generation recalculation plan; the supply plan creation means creates the power supply plan using the power generation forecast value, and recreates the power supply plan for the predetermined period using the power generation forecast value recalculated based on the power generation recalculation plan. 7. The power system of claim 6,

[0084] <Appendix 8> the power generation reliability calculation means calculates the power generation reliability for each of a plurality of periods obtained by further dividing the predetermined period, the power generation recalculation planning means creates the power generation recalculation plan for each of the plurality of divided periods. 8. The power system of claim 7.

[0085] <Appendix 9> An information processing device (10, 11, 15) that creates a plan related to power supply to a load device, a demand forecasting means (101, 501) for calculating a demand forecast value that is a prior forecast of the power demand of the load equipment within a predetermined period; a demand reliability calculation means (102, 502) for calculating in advance a demand reliability which is the reliability of the demand forecast value; a demand recalculation planning means (103, 503) for creating a demand recalculation plan, which is a plan for recalculating the demand forecast value within the predetermined period, based on the demand reliability; a power supply plan creation means (104, 204, 507) that creates a power supply plan related to power supply to the load devices within the predetermined period using at least the demand forecast value; It has the demand forecasting means recalculates the demand forecast value within the predetermined period based on the demand recalculation plan; the supply plan creation means recreates the power supply plan for the predetermined period by using at least the demand forecast value recalculated based on the demand recalculation plan. An information processing device characterized by:

[0086] <Appendix 10> The demand recalculation planning means creating the demand recalculation plan, which specifies not to recalculate the demand forecast value when the demand reliability exceeds a predetermined threshold; 10. The information processing device according to claim 9,

[0087] <Appendix 11> a power generation device (270) is included as a power supply source for the load equipment; power generation prediction means (201, 504) for calculating a power generation prediction value that is a prior prediction of the amount of power generated by the power generation device within the predetermined period; a power generation reliability calculation means (202, 505) for calculating in advance the power generation reliability, which is the reliability of the power generation prediction value; a power generation recalculation planning means (203, 506) for creating a power generation recalculation plan, which is a plan for recalculating the power generation forecast value within the predetermined period, based on the power generation reliability; and the power generation prediction means recalculates the power generation prediction value within the predetermined period based on the power generation recalculation plan; the supply plan creation means creates the power supply plan using the power generation forecast value, and recreates the power supply plan for the predetermined period using the power generation forecast value recalculated based on the power generation recalculation plan. 11. The information processing device according to claim 9 or 10.

[0088] <Appendix 12> A power supply plan creation method for creating a plan related to power supply to load devices, comprising: a demand prediction step (S102) of calculating a demand prediction value that is a prior prediction of power demand by the load device within a predetermined period; a demand reliability calculation step (S105) of calculating in advance a demand reliability that is the reliability of the demand forecast value; a demand recalculation planning step (S107, S108) of creating a demand recalculation plan, which is a plan for recalculating the demand forecast value within the predetermined period, based on the demand reliability; a supply plan creation step (S103) of creating a power supply plan related to power supply to the load device within the predetermined period using at least the demand forecast value; a demand forecast recalculation step (S109) of recalculating the demand forecast value within the predetermined period based on the demand recalculation plan; a supply plan re-creation step (S110) of re-creating the power supply plan for the predetermined period using the demand forecast value recalculated based on at least the demand recalculation plan; having A power supply plan creation method comprising:

[0089] <Appendix 13> In the demand recalculation planning step, creating the demand recalculation plan, which specifies not to recalculate the demand forecast value when the demand reliability exceeds a predetermined threshold; 13. The power supply plan creation method according to claim 12,

[0090] <Appendix 14> A step (S101) of acquiring parameters related to the demand reliability calculation for a predetermined period for which the demand reliability is to be calculated; A step (S104) of acquiring a load actual value that is past demand actual data for the load device and whose parameter matches or is similar to the parameter for the predetermined period; and In the reliability calculation step, the demand reliability is calculated using the demand forecast value and the load actual value. 14. The power supply plan creation method according to claim 12 or 13,

[0091] <Appendix 15> A power generator is included as a power supply source for the load equipment, a power generation prediction step (S102) of calculating a power generation prediction value that is a prior prediction of the amount of power generated by the power generation device within the predetermined period; a power generation reliability calculation step (S105) of calculating in advance the power generation reliability, which is the reliability of the power generation prediction value; a power generation recalculation planning step (S107, S108) of creating a power generation recalculation plan, which is a plan for recalculating the power generation forecast value within the predetermined period, based on the power generation reliability; a power generation forecast recalculation step (S109) of recalculating the power generation forecast value within the predetermined period based on the power generation recalculation plan; and In the supply plan creation step, the power supply plan is created using the predicted power generation value, In the supply plan re-creation step, the power supply plan is re-created using the power generation forecast value recalculated based on the power generation recalculation plan. 15. The power supply plan creation method according to any one of appendices 12 to 14. <Appendix 16> A program for causing an information processing device to execute each step of the power supply plan creation method according to any one of appendices 12 to 15. [Explanation of symbols]

[0092] 1, 2, 3... Power System 10, 11, 12...Control device 15. Server equipment 20. Storage battery 21···BMU 30 Power conditioner 40 Distribution board 50...load 60...Electric energy meter 240 General load distribution board 241...Specific load distribution board 250...Specific load 270···PV system 90 Bus 91 Processor 92...Memory 93 Input / Output Interface 94 Communication Interface K...Commercial power system N···Communication Network

Claims

1. Power supply and a load device that receives power from the power source; a demand prediction means for calculating a demand prediction value that is a prior prediction of the power demand of the load device within a predetermined period; a demand reliability calculation means for calculating in advance a demand reliability which is the reliability of the demand forecast value; a demand recalculation planning means for creating a demand recalculation plan in advance, the demand recalculation plan being a plan for recalculating the demand forecast value within the predetermined period based on the demand reliability; It has the demand forecasting means recalculates the demand forecast value within the predetermined period based on the demand recalculation plan; 1. A power system comprising:

2. The demand recalculation planning means creating the demand recalculation plan, which specifies not to recalculate the demand forecast value when the demand reliability exceeds a predetermined threshold; 2. The power system according to claim 1 .

3. The demand reliability calculation means Calculating the demand reliability using the demand forecast value and past demand actual data for the load equipment, wherein parameters related to calculation of the demand reliability are identical or similar to the parameters for a predetermined period for which the demand reliability is to be calculated.

2. The power system according to claim 1 .

4. The demand reliability calculation means Using a plurality of the load actual values, the reliability is calculated based on a value obtained by dividing a mean absolute error between the demand forecast value and the plurality of the load actual values ​​by an average value of the plurality of the load actual values. The power system according to claim 3 .

5. The demand reliability calculation means calculates the demand reliability for each of a plurality of periods obtained by further dividing the predetermined period, the demand recalculation planning means creates the demand recalculation plan for each of the plurality of divided periods.

2. The power system according to claim 1 .

6. a power supply plan creating means for creating a power supply plan, which is a plan related to power supply to the load device within the predetermined period, using at least the demand forecast value; the supply plan creation means recreates the power supply plan for the predetermined period by using at least the demand forecast value recalculated based on the demand recalculation plan.

2. The power system according to claim 1 .

7. The power source includes a power generator, a power generation prediction means for calculating a power generation prediction value that is a prior prediction of the amount of power generated by the power generation device within the predetermined period; a power generation reliability calculation means for calculating in advance a power generation reliability that is the reliability of the power generation prediction value; a power generation recalculation planning means for creating a power generation recalculation plan, which is a plan for recalculating the power generation forecast value within the predetermined period, based on the power generation reliability; and the power generation prediction means recalculates the power generation prediction value within the predetermined period based on the power generation recalculation plan; the supply plan creation means creates the power supply plan using the power generation forecast value, and recreates the power supply plan for the predetermined period using the power generation forecast value recalculated based on the power generation recalculation plan.

7. The power system according to claim 6, wherein:

8. the power generation reliability calculation means calculates the power generation reliability for each of a plurality of periods obtained by further dividing the predetermined period, the power generation recalculation planning means creates the power generation recalculation plan for each of the plurality of divided periods. The power system according to claim 7 .

9. An information processing device that creates a plan related to power supply to a load device, a demand prediction means for calculating a demand prediction value that is a prior prediction of the power demand of the load equipment within a predetermined period; a demand reliability calculation means for calculating in advance a demand reliability which is the reliability of the demand forecast value; a demand recalculation planning means for creating a demand recalculation plan, which is a plan for recalculating the demand forecast value within the predetermined period, based on the demand reliability; a power supply plan creating means for creating a power supply plan relating to power supply to the load devices within the predetermined period using at least the demand forecast value; It has the demand forecasting means recalculates the demand forecast value within the predetermined period based on the demand recalculation plan; the supply plan creation means recreates the power supply plan for the predetermined period by using at least the demand forecast value recalculated based on the demand recalculation plan. An information processing device characterized by:

10. The demand recalculation planning means creating the demand recalculation plan, which specifies not to recalculate the demand forecast value when the demand reliability exceeds a predetermined threshold; 10. The information processing device according to claim 9,

11. a power generation device is included as a power supply source for the load device, a power generation prediction means for calculating a power generation prediction value that is a prior prediction of the amount of power generated by the power generation device within the predetermined period; a power generation reliability calculation means for calculating in advance a power generation reliability that is the reliability of the power generation prediction value; a power generation recalculation planning means for creating a power generation recalculation plan, which is a plan for recalculating the power generation forecast value within the predetermined period, based on the power generation reliability; and the power generation prediction means recalculates the power generation prediction value within the predetermined period based on the power generation recalculation plan; the supply plan creation means creates the power supply plan using the power generation forecast value, and recreates the power supply plan for the predetermined period using the power generation forecast value recalculated based on the power generation recalculation plan.

11. The information processing device according to claim 9 or 10.

12. A power supply plan creation method for creating a plan related to power supply to load devices, comprising: a demand prediction step of calculating a demand prediction value that is a prior prediction of power demand by the load device within a predetermined period; a demand reliability calculation step of calculating in advance a demand reliability that is the reliability of the demand forecast value; a demand recalculation planning step of creating a demand recalculation plan in advance, the demand recalculation plan being a plan for implementing recalculation of the demand forecast value within the predetermined period, based on the demand reliability; a supply plan creation step of creating a power supply plan related to power supply to the load devices within the predetermined period using at least the demand forecast value; a demand forecast recalculation step of recalculating the demand forecast value within the predetermined period based on the demand recalculation plan; a supply plan re-creation step of re-creating the power supply plan for the predetermined period by using the demand forecast value recalculated based on at least the demand recalculation plan; having A power supply plan creation method comprising:

13. In the demand recalculation planning step, creating the demand recalculation plan, which specifies not to recalculate the demand forecast value when the demand reliability exceeds a predetermined threshold; 13. The power supply planning method according to claim 12, wherein:

14. acquiring parameters related to the demand reliability calculation for a predetermined period for which the demand reliability is to be calculated; acquiring a load actual value, which is past demand actual data for the load device, and the parameter is identical to or similar to the parameter for the predetermined period; and In the reliability calculation step, the demand reliability is calculated using the demand forecast value and the load actual value.

13. The power supply planning method according to claim 12, wherein:

15. A power generator is included as a power supply source for the load equipment, a power generation prediction step of calculating a power generation prediction value that is a prior prediction of the amount of power generated by the power generation device within the predetermined period; a power generation reliability calculation step of calculating in advance a power generation reliability that is the reliability of the power generation prediction value; a power generation recalculation planning step of creating a power generation recalculation plan in advance, the power generation recalculation plan being a plan for recalculating the power generation forecast value within the predetermined period based on the power generation reliability; a power generation forecast recalculation step of recalculating the power generation forecast value within the predetermined period based on the power generation recalculation plan; and In the supply plan creation step, the power supply plan is created using the predicted power generation value, In the supply plan re-creation step, the power supply plan is re-created using the power generation forecast value recalculated based on the power generation recalculation plan.

13. The power supply planning method according to claim 12, wherein:

16. A program for causing an information processing device to execute each step of the power supply plan creation method according to any one of claims 12 to 15.

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