Component procurement capability estimation device, component procurement capability estimation system, component procurement capability estimation method, and program

Abstract

To provide a component procurement capability estimation device that supports advance detection of component shortage.SOLUTION: A component procurement capacity estimation device 1 includes: a component order delivery error calculation unit 12 that calculates an error between a desired delivery date and a delivery date for each past component, and an error between an order quantity and a delivery quantity; a component required delivery error calculation unit 14 that calculates an error between a component required date and a delivery date and an error between a component required quantity and a delivery quantity for each past component; a component delivery error coefficient calculation unit 15 that calculates a component order-based component delivery error coefficient that expresses, as coefficients, an error between the desired delivery date and the delivery date for each component per unit period and an error between the order quantity and the delivery quantity, and a product production-based component delivery error coefficient that expresses, as coefficients, an error between a component required date and a delivery date for each component per unit period and an error between a component required quantity and a delivery quantity; and a component procurement capacity calculation unit 17 that calculates, using a component delivery error coefficient, on the basis of a component delivery record for each unit period, component procurement capacity based on a component order and a product production.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a parts procurement capability estimation device, a parts procurement capability estimation system, a parts procurement capability estimation method, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] In the manufacturing industry, where globalization is progressing, inter-company supply chain control is essential to address risks such as supply chain disruptions and stagnation. In particular, in the collaboration between suppliers and factories, parts shortages are often discovered when suppliers respond to delivery dates, which can prevent the production and shipment of products that use the parts in question, resulting in significant sales opportunity losses. To solve the above issues, factories need to be able to detect parts shortages in advance, relative to demand. In order to detect parts shortages, it is necessary to understand the parts procurement capacity of suppliers.

[0003] Patent Document 1 discloses a method for calculating a product demand plan using product demand forecast information on the sales side and parts delivery schedule information on the supply side in a supply chain of sales, manufacturing, and supply. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2003-48621 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] The technology described in Patent Document 1 can calculate parts safety stock and parts delivery schedules by utilizing business data from the sales, manufacturing, and supply supply chains, but it cannot calculate the parts procurement capacity from suppliers that is necessary to detect parts shortages in advance.

[0006] The present disclosure has been made to solve the above-mentioned problems, and aims to support advance detection of component shortages. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] To achieve the above object, a parts procurement capability estimation device according to the present disclosure is a parts procurement capability estimation device that estimates parts procurement capability from suppliers of parts used in the production of a product. The parts procurement capability estimation device includes a parts order delivery error calculation unit, a parts required delivery error calculation unit, a parts delivery date error coefficient calculation unit, and a parts procurement capability calculation unit. The parts order delivery error calculation unit calculates the error between a desired delivery date and a delivery date and the error between an order quantity and a delivery quantity for each past part. The parts required delivery error calculation unit calculates the error between a parts required date and a delivery date and the error between a parts required quantity and a delivery quantity for each past part. The parts delivery date error coefficient calculation unit calculates a parts order-based parts delivery error coefficient that expresses, as coefficients, the error between a desired delivery date and a delivery date and the error between an order quantity and a delivery quantity for each part per unit period, and a product production-based parts delivery error coefficient that expresses, as coefficients, the error between a parts required date and a delivery date and the error between a parts required quantity and a delivery quantity for each part per unit period. The parts procurement capacity calculation unit uses the parts order-based parts delivery error coefficient and the product production-based parts delivery error coefficient to calculate the parts order-based parts procurement capacity for each unit period and the product production-based parts procurement capacity for each unit period based on the parts delivery record for each unit period. [Effects of the Invention]

[0008] According to the present disclosure, by calculating the parts procurement capacity from suppliers, it becomes possible to assist in the advance detection of parts shortages. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0009] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a parts procurement capability estimation device according to an embodiment; [Figure 2] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of part order record information according to an embodiment. [Figure 3]FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of parts delivery record information according to an embodiment; [Figure 4] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of product production performance information according to an embodiment; [Figure 5] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of component part list information according to an embodiment; [Figure 6] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of part delivery time error coefficient list information according to an embodiment; [Figure 7] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of part order delivery error information according to an embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of required part quantity information according to an embodiment; [Figure 9] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of required part delivery error information according to an embodiment; [Figure 10] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of part delivery time error coefficient information according to an embodiment; [Figure 11] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of monthly parts delivery performance information according to an embodiment; [Figure 12] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of parts procurement capability information according to an embodiment; [Figure 13] 1 is a flowchart showing a part procurement capability estimation process according to an embodiment of the present invention; [Figure 14] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing supply chain control using a parts procurement capability estimation device according to an embodiment. [Figure 15] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of a parts procurement capability estimation device according to an embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0010] A parts procurement capability estimation device, a parts procurement capability estimation system, a parts procurement capability estimation method, and a program according to the present embodiment will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings. Note that the same or corresponding parts in the drawings are designated by the same reference numerals.

[0011] The configuration of a parts procurement capability estimation device 1 according to an embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 1. As shown in Fig. 1, parts procurement capability estimation device 1 includes a storage unit 11 that stores various information, a parts order delivery error calculation unit 12 that calculates the error between a desired delivery date and a delivery date and the error between an order quantity and a delivery quantity on a part-by-part basis in the past, a parts requirement quantity calculation unit 13 that calculates a parts required date and a parts required quantity based on product production records and a list of component parts, and a parts required delivery error calculation unit 14 that calculates the error between a parts required date and a delivery date and the error between a parts required quantity and a delivery quantity on a part-by-part basis in the past. The parts procurement capability estimation device 1 also includes a parts delivery date error coefficient calculation unit 15 that calculates two types of parts delivery error coefficients that express the error between the monthly desired delivery date and order quantity and the actual delivery result, and the error between the parts required date and required parts quantity and the actual delivery result, using coefficients; a monthly parts delivery result calculation unit 16 that calculates the monthly delivery quantity of parts from the supplier to the factory; a parts procurement capability calculation unit 17 that calculates two types of parts procurement capabilities based on the parts delivery result using the two types of parts delivery error coefficients; and a parts procurement capability output unit 18 that outputs parts procurement capability information that indicates the calculated monthly parts procurement capability.

[0012] The memory unit 11 includes a parts order record memory unit 111 that stores parts order record information indicating the order record of parts from factories to suppliers for each order number; a parts delivery record memory unit 112 that stores parts delivery record information that indicates the delivery record of parts from suppliers to factories for each order number; a product production record memory unit 113 that stores product production record information that indicates the actual number of products produced; a component parts list memory unit 114 that stores component parts list information that lists the parts that make up each product; and a parts delivery date error coefficient list memory unit 115 that stores parts delivery date error coefficient list information in which parts delivery date error coefficients are defined by a matrix with the horizontal axis representing the error in number of days and the vertical axis representing the error in quantity.

[0013] The parts order record information stored in the parts order record storage unit 111 will be described with reference to Fig. 2. In the example of Fig. 2, the parts order record information has the following fields: "Order Number" for identifying the parts order; "Part Name" for indicating the name of the part; "Part Code" for indicating the code for identifying the part; "Order Date" for indicating the date the part was ordered; "Desired Delivery Date" for indicating the desired delivery date of the part; and "Order Quantity" for indicating the order quantity of the part. The parts order record information records data on parts orders by order number. For example, in the order with order number 11111, 75 parts with part code aa-01 and part name aaa were ordered on January 19, 2023, and the desired delivery date is set to January 18, 2024.

[0014] The parts delivery record information stored in the parts delivery record storage unit 112 will be described with reference to FIG. 3. In the example of FIG. 3, the parts delivery record information has the following fields: "Order Number" for identifying the parts order; "Part Name" for indicating the name of the part; "Part Code" for indicating the code for identifying the part; "Delivery Date" for indicating the delivery date of the part; and "Delivery Quantity" for indicating the delivery quantity of the part. The parts delivery record information records data on the delivery of parts by order number. If a single order is delivered in installments on different days, the delivery date and delivery quantity are recorded in separate rows. For example, for an order with order number 33333, 50 parts with part code cc-01 and part name ccc were delivered on 2024 / 1 / 18 and 2024 / 1 / 25, respectively.

[0015] The product production record information stored in the product production record storage unit 113 will be described with reference to Fig. 4. In the example of Fig. 4, the product production record information has the following fields: "Product Name" indicating the name of the product, "Product Code" indicating the code to identify the product, "Production Date" indicating the date the product was produced, and "Production Quantity" indicating the quantity of the product produced. The product production record information records data on the production quantity by day and by product. For example, 50 units of a product with product code AA-01 and product name AAA were produced on 1 / 19 / 2024.

[0016] The component parts list information stored in the component parts list storage unit 114 will be described with reference to FIG. 5. In the example of FIG. 5, the component parts list information has the following fields: "Product Name" indicating the name of the product, "Product Code" indicating a code to identify the product, "Component Name" indicating the name of the component, "Component Code" indicating a code to identify the component, and "Component Usage Quantity" indicating the quantity of the component used in producing the product. The product production performance information records data on the components that make up each product and data on the quantity of the component parts required to produce each product. For example, a product with product code AA-01 and product name AAA is produced using one component with component code aa-01 and component name aaa, three components with component code aa-02 and component name aab, five components with part code aa-03 and component name aac, and ten components with part code aa-04 and component name aad.

[0017] The parts delivery time error coefficient list information stored in parts delivery time error coefficient list storage unit 115 will be described with reference to FIG. 6. The parts delivery time error coefficient list information is a combination of day error and quantity error. In the example of FIG. 6, the horizontal axis represents the day error rate (unit: %), and the vertical axis represents the quantity error rate (unit: %), and it is a matrix showing parameter coefficients that represent errors from orders and requirements. The day error rate, which is the horizontal axis of the matrix, ranges from 0 to 100, and the quantity error rate, which is the vertical axis, ranges from 0 to 100. The closer to 0 the coefficient is, the more it means that the parts were delivered as ordered and required, and the closer the coefficient is to 1. On the other hand, the closer to 100 the coefficient is, the more it means that the parts were not delivered as ordered and required, and the closer the coefficient is to 0.

[0018] 1, parts order delivery error calculation unit 12 calculates the error between the desired delivery date of a part and the actual delivery date, and the error between the ordered quantity of a part and the actual delivered quantity, based on the parts order record information stored in parts order record storage unit 111 and the parts delivery record information stored in parts delivery record storage unit 112. Parts order delivery error calculation unit 12 generates parts order delivery error information that indicates the calculated error between the desired delivery date of a part and the actual delivery date, and the error between the ordered quantity of a part and the actual delivered quantity.

[0019] The error between the desired delivery date of a part and the actual delivery date is calculated as the number of days of the error (unit: days) and percentage (unit: %). The error between the order quantity of a part and the actual delivery quantity is calculated as the quantity of the error (unit: pieces) and percentage (unit: %). The error in days between the desired delivery date of a part and the actual delivery date is the difference between the number of days from the "order date" to the "desired delivery date" included in the parts order actual information and the number of days from the "order date" included in the parts order actual information to the "delivery date" included in the parts delivery actual information, and is calculated using the following formula: [Number of days of error between the desired delivery date and the actual delivery date] = [Number of days from the order date to the delivery date] - [Number of days from the order date to the desired delivery date]. The percentage of error between the desired delivery date of a part and the actual delivery date is calculated using the following formula: [Percentage of error between the desired delivery date and the actual delivery date] = [Number of days of error between the desired delivery date and the actual delivery date] / [Number of days from the order date to the desired delivery date].

[0020] The error quantity between the ordered quantity and actual delivered quantity of a part is the difference between the "order quantity" included in the actual parts order information and the "delivered quantity" included in the actual parts delivery information, and is calculated using the following formula: [Error quantity between ordered quantity and actual delivered quantity] = [order quantity] - [delivered quantity]. The percentage of the error between the ordered quantity and actual delivered quantity of a part is calculated using the following formula: [Error percentage between ordered quantity and actual delivered quantity] = [Error quantity between ordered quantity and actual delivered quantity] / [order quantity]. If a single order is delivered in installments on different days, the error between the desired delivery date and the actual delivery date of the part, and the error between the ordered quantity and actual delivered quantity of the part are calculated for each delivery date.

[0021] The parts order delivery error information will be explained using FIG. 7. In the example of FIG. 7, the parts order delivery error information has the following items: "Part Name" indicating the name of the part; "Part Code" indicating the code that identifies the part; "Order Number" identifying the part order; "Error Between Desired Delivery Date and Actual Delivery Date" indicating the error between the calculated desired delivery date of the part and the actual delivery date; and "Error Between Order Quantity and Actual Delivery Quantity" indicating the error between the calculated ordered quantity of the part and the actual delivery quantity. For example, for an order for part number 11111 with part code aa-01 and part name aaa, the number of days of error between the desired delivery date and the actual delivery date is 0 days, and the percentage is 0%. The quantity of error between the ordered quantity and the actual delivery quantity is 0, and the percentage is 0%.

[0022] 1, part requirement calculation unit 13 calculates the required date and required quantity of a part based on the product production record information stored in product production record storage unit 113 and the component part list information stored in component part list storage unit 114. Part requirement calculation unit 13 generates part requirement information indicating the calculated required date and required quantity of the part.

[0023] When the product production performance information includes a product that uses a part included in the component parts list information as a component, the required part quantity calculation unit 13 sets the production date recorded in the product production performance information as the required part date. The required part quantity is the product of the production quantity recorded in the product production performance information and the part usage quantity included in the component parts list information, and is calculated using the formula: [required quantity] = [production quantity] × [part usage quantity].

[0024] The part requirement information will be explained using Fig. 8. In the example of Fig. 8, the part requirement information has the following items: "Part Name" indicating the name of the part, "Part Code" indicating the code to identify the part, "Part Required Date" indicating the required date of the part, and "Part Required Amount" indicating the required amount of the part. For example, 50 pieces of part with part code aa-01 and part name aaa will be used on 2024 / 1 / 19.

[0025] 1, the parts required delivery error calculation unit 14 calculates the error between the required date and the actual delivery date of the part, and the error between the required quantity and the actual delivered quantity of the part, based on the parts delivery record information stored in the parts delivery record storage unit 112 and the parts required quantity information generated by the parts required quantity calculation unit 13. The parts required delivery error calculation unit 14 generates parts required delivery error information that indicates the error between the calculated required date and the actual delivery date of the part, and the error between the required quantity of the part and the actual delivered quantity.

[0026] For the error between the required date and actual delivery date of a part, the number of days of error (unit: days) and percentage (unit: %) are calculated. For the error between the required quantity of a part and the actual delivery quantity, the number of errors (unit: pieces) and percentage (unit: %) are calculated. The number of days of error between the required date and actual delivery date of a part is the difference between the number of days from the "order date" included in the parts order actual information to the "part required date" included in the parts required quantity information, and the number of days from the "order date" included in the parts order actual information to the "delivery date" included in the parts delivery actual information, and is calculated using the formula: [Number of days of error between the required date and actual delivery date of the part] = [Number of days from the order date to the delivery date] - [Number of days from the order date to the required date]. The percentage of error between the required date of a part and the actual delivery date is calculated using the formula: [Percentage of error between the required date of a part and the actual delivery date] = [Number of days of error between the required date and the actual delivery date] / [Number of days from the order date to the required date].

[0027] The error quantity between the required part quantity and the actual delivered quantity is the difference between the "required part quantity" included in the required part quantity information and the "delivered quantity" included in the actual delivered part quantity information, and is calculated using the following formula: [Error quantity between required part quantity and actual delivered quantity] = [required quantity] - [delivered quantity]. The error percentage between the required part quantity and actual delivered quantity is calculated using the following formula: [Error percentage between required part quantity and actual delivered quantity] = [Error quantity between required quantity and actual delivered quantity] / [required quantity].

[0028] The part required delivery error information will be explained using FIG. 9 . In the example of FIG. 9 , the part required delivery error information has the following fields: "Part Name" indicating the name of the part; "Part Code" indicating a code to identify the part; "Part Required Date" indicating the required date of the part; "Error Between Part Required Date and Actual Delivery Date" indicating the error between the required date of the part and the actual delivery date; and "Error Between Part Required Quantity and Actual Delivery Quantity" indicating the error between the required quantity of the part and the actual delivery quantity. For example, for a part with part code aa-01 and part name aaa, for the required date of 2024 / 1 / 19, the number of days of error between the part required date and the actual delivery date is 0 days, and the percentage is 0%. The error quantity between the part required quantity and the actual delivery quantity is 0 units, and the percentage is 0%. For the required date of 2024 / 1 / 26, the number of days of error between the part required date and the actual delivery date is 2 days, and the percentage is 30%. The error between the required quantity of parts and the actual delivered quantity is 25 pieces, which is 20%.

[0029] 1, parts delivery date error coefficient calculation unit 15 calculates two types of parts delivery error coefficients that express, as coefficients, the errors between the desired delivery date and order quantity of a part and the actual delivery record, and the errors between the required date and required quantity of a part and the actual delivery record, based on the parts order delivery error information generated by parts order delivery error calculation unit 12, the parts required delivery error information generated by parts required delivery error calculation unit 14, and the parts delivery date error coefficient list information stored in parts delivery date error coefficient list storage unit 115. Parts delivery date error coefficient calculation unit 15 generates parts delivery date error coefficient information that indicates the calculated parts delivery error coefficients.

[0030] The parts delivery error coefficients include parts order-based parts delivery error coefficients, which are calculated by applying the ratios of the "error between the desired delivery date and the actual delivery date" and the "error between the order quantity and the actual delivered quantity" contained in parts order delivery error information to the horizontal and vertical axes of the parts delivery error coefficient list information matrix and averaging these values ​​for each month using delivery date as a key, and parts production-based parts delivery error coefficients, which are calculated by applying the ratios of the "error between the parts required date and the actual delivery date" and the "error between the parts required quantity and the actual delivered quantity" contained in parts required delivery error information to the horizontal and vertical axes of the parts delivery error coefficient list information matrix and averaging these values ​​for each month using delivery date as a key. For example, if the delivery dates on Nth day (Xth) and Nth day (Yth) are S, T, and U, respectively, the parts delivery error coefficient for Nth month is calculated using the formula [parts delivery error coefficient] = {[S] + [T] + [U]} ÷ 3.

[0031] The closer the parts delivery error coefficient is to 1, the more the parts were delivered according to the order and requirements. On the other hand, the closer it is to 0, the more the parts were not delivered according to the order and requirements. By using the parts delivery error coefficient as a weighting function, parts procurement capacity calculation unit 17 can calculate parts procurement capacity that takes into account errors from orders and requirements. There are many cases where the desired delivery date and order quantity are influenced by the factory's intentions, such as bulk ordering. For this reason, parts delivery date error coefficient calculation unit 15 calculates the parts delivery error coefficient not only from the error between the order and actual delivery, but also from the error between the net requirement obtained from product production results that take strategic inventory into account and actual delivery.

[0032] The parts delivery date error coefficient information will be explained using FIG. 10. In the example of FIG. 10, the parts delivery date error coefficient information has the following items: "part name" indicating the name of the part; "part code" indicating the code that identifies the part; "delivery month" indicating the delivery month of the part; and "error coefficient" indicating the parts delivery error coefficient. The "error coefficient" has the items "part order base" indicating the parts delivery error coefficient based on the parts order; and "product production base" indicating the parts delivery error coefficient based on the product production. For example, for a part with part code aa-01 and part name aaa, the parts delivery error coefficient based on the parts order is 0.7, and the parts delivery error coefficient based on the product production is 0.9 for the delivery month of December 2023.

[0033] Returning to FIG. 1, monthly parts delivery record calculation unit 16 calculates the monthly parts delivery quantity by adding up the parts delivery quantities within the same month, based on the parts delivery record information stored in parts delivery record storage unit 112. For example, if A units are delivered on Nth month Xth day, B units on Nth month Yth day, and C units on Nth month Zth day, the monthly parts delivery quantity is calculated using the formula [parts delivery quantity] = [A units] + [B units] + [C units]. Monthly parts delivery record calculation unit 16 generates monthly parts delivery record information that indicates the calculated monthly parts delivery quantities. Monthly parts delivery record calculation unit 16 is an example of a unit period parts delivery record calculation unit.

[0034] The monthly parts delivery performance information will be explained using Fig. 11. In the example of Fig. 11, the monthly parts delivery performance information has the following fields: "Part Name" indicating the name of the part, "Part Code" indicating the code that identifies the part, "Delivery Month" indicating the delivery month of the part, and "Delivery Quantity" indicating the delivery quantity of the part in the delivery month. For example, the delivery quantity of a part with part code aa-01 and part name aaa is 200 units for the delivery month of December 2023.

[0035] Returning to Fig. 1, parts procurement capability calculation unit 17 calculates two types of parts procurement capabilities, a parts order-based and a product production-based, based on the parts delivery date error coefficient information generated by parts delivery date error coefficient calculation unit 15 and the monthly parts delivery record information generated by monthly parts delivery record calculation unit 16. Parts procurement capability calculation unit 17 generates parts procurement capability information indicating the two types of parts procurement capabilities calculated. The parts procurement capability is a value obtained by multiplying the delivery quantity included in the monthly parts delivery record information by the parts delivery error coefficient included in the parts delivery date error coefficient information, and is calculated using the formula [parts procurement capability] = [monthly delivery quantity] x [parts delivery error coefficient].

[0036] By calculating parts procurement capacity using two types of parts delivery error coefficients, one based on parts orders and one based on product production, calculated based on the error between orders and actual deliveries and the error between net requirements and actual deliveries, it is possible to calculate two types of parts procurement capacity: parts procurement capacity for parts orders that include the factory's intentions, and parts procurement capacity for net parts requirements that take strategic inventory into account.In addition, for example, air-cooled products have busy and slow seasons depending on the season, and supplier parts supply capacity also fluctuates depending on the season.By calculating on a monthly basis, it is possible to calculate parts procurement capacity that takes into account the seasonality specific to air-cooled products.

[0037] The parts procurement capacity information will be explained using FIG. 12. In the example of FIG. 12, the parts procurement capacity information has the following items: "part name" indicating the name of the part; "part code" indicating the code that identifies the part; "delivery month" indicating the delivery month of the part; and "parts procurement capacity" indicating the parts procurement capacity. "Parts procurement capacity" has the items "parts order base" indicating the parts procurement capacity based on parts orders, and "product production base" indicating the parts procurement capacity based on product production. For example, for a part with part code aa-01 and part name aaa, the parts procurement capacity based on parts orders is 200, and the parts procurement capacity based on product production is 220, for a delivery month of December 2023.

[0038] 1, parts procurement capacity output unit 18 outputs the parts procurement capacity information generated by parts procurement capacity calculation unit 17. The parts procurement capacity information may be output, for example, by displaying it on a screen or by transmitting it to a terminal used by a user.

[0039] Here, the flow of the parts procurement capability estimation process executed by parts procurement capability estimating device 1 will be described with reference to Fig. 13. The parts procurement capability estimation process shown in Fig. 13 starts, for example, when a parts procurement capability estimation instruction is input to parts procurement capability estimating device 1. Parts order delivery error calculation unit 12 of parts procurement capability estimating device 1 calculates the error between the desired delivery date and the actual delivery date of the parts, and the error between the ordered quantity of the parts and the actual delivered quantity, based on the parts delivery record information stored in parts delivery record storage unit 112 and the parts order record information stored in parts order record storage unit 111 (step S11). Parts order delivery error calculation unit 12 generates parts order delivery error information indicating the calculated error between the desired delivery date and the actual delivery date of the parts, and the error between the ordered quantity of the parts and the actual delivered quantity (step S12).

[0040] In the example of Figure 7, the parts order delivery error information has the following items: "Part Name" indicating the name of the part; "Part Code" indicating the code that identifies the part; "Order Number" identifying the part order; "Error Between Desired Delivery Date and Actual Delivery Date" indicating the error between the calculated desired delivery date of the part and the actual delivery date; and "Error Between Order Quantity and Actual Delivery Quantity" indicating the error between the calculated order quantity of the part and the actual delivery quantity.

[0041] 13, the part requirement calculation unit 13 calculates the required date and required quantity of the part based on the product production record information stored in the product production record storage unit 113 and the component part list information stored in the component part list storage unit 114 (step S13). The part requirement calculation unit 13 generates part requirement information indicating the calculated required date and required quantity of the part (step S14).

[0042] In the example of FIG. 8, the part requirement information has the following items: "part name" indicating the name of the part; "part code" indicating a code to identify the part; "part requirement date" indicating the date when the part is required; and "part requirement quantity" indicating the required quantity of the part.

[0043] 13, the parts required delivery error calculation unit 14 calculates the error between the required date and the actual delivery date of the part, and the error between the required quantity of the part and the actual delivered quantity (step S15), based on the parts delivery record information stored in the parts delivery record storage unit 112 and the parts required quantity information generated by the parts required quantity calculation unit 13. The parts required delivery error calculation unit 14 generates parts required delivery error information indicating the calculated error between the required date and the actual delivery date of the part, and the error between the required quantity of the part and the actual delivered quantity (step S16).

[0044] In the example of FIG. 9, the part required delivery error information has the following items: "part name" indicating the name of the part; "part code" indicating a code to identify the part; "part required date" indicating the required date of the part; "error between part required date and actual delivery date" indicating the error between the required date of the part and the actual delivery date; and "error between part required quantity and actual delivery quantity" indicating the error between the required quantity of the part and the actual delivery quantity.

[0045] 13, based on the parts order delivery error information generated by parts order delivery error calculation unit 12, the parts required delivery error information generated by parts required delivery error calculation unit 14, and the parts delivery error coefficient list information stored in parts delivery error coefficient list storage unit 115, parts delivery error coefficient calculation unit 15 calculates two types of parts delivery error coefficients, one on a parts order basis and one on a product production basis, which express, as coefficients, the errors between the desired delivery date and order quantity of the parts and the actual delivery results, and the errors between the required date and required quantity of the parts and the actual delivery results (step S17). Parts delivery error coefficient calculation unit 15 generates parts delivery error coefficient information indicating the calculated parts delivery error coefficients (step S18).

[0046] 10, the parts delivery time error coefficient information has the following items: "part name" indicating the name of the part, "part code" indicating the code to identify the part, "delivery month" indicating the delivery month of the part, and "error coefficient" indicating the parts delivery error coefficient. The "error coefficient" has the items "parts order base" indicating the parts delivery error coefficient on a parts order basis, and "product production base" indicating the parts delivery error coefficient on a product production basis.

[0047] 13, monthly parts delivery record calculation unit 16 calculates the monthly parts delivery quantity by summing up the parts delivery quantities within the same month (step S19) based on the parts delivery record information stored in parts delivery record storage unit 112. Monthly parts delivery record calculation unit 16 generates monthly parts delivery record information indicating the sum of the calculated parts delivery quantities per month and per part (step S20).

[0048] In the example of Figure 11, the monthly parts delivery performance information has the following fields: "Part Name" indicating the name of the part, "Part Code" indicating the code that identifies the part, "Delivery Month" indicating the delivery month of the part, and "Delivery Quantity" indicating the delivery quantity of the part in the delivery month.

[0049] 13, parts procurement capability calculation unit 17 calculates two types of parts procurement capabilities, that is, parts order-based and product production-based, based on the parts delivery date error coefficient information generated by parts delivery date error coefficient calculation unit 15 and the monthly parts delivery record information generated by monthly parts delivery record calculation unit 16 (step S21). Parts procurement capability calculation unit 17 generates parts procurement capability information indicating the two types of parts procurement capabilities calculated (step S22).

[0050] 12, the parts procurement capability information has the following items: "part name" indicating the name of the part, "part code" indicating the code that identifies the part, "delivery month" indicating the delivery month of the part, and "parts procurement capability" indicating the parts procurement capability. "Parts procurement capability" has the items "parts order base" indicating the parts procurement capability on a parts order basis, and "product production base" indicating the parts procurement capability on a product production basis.

[0051] Returning to FIG. 13, the parts procurement capacity output unit 18 outputs the parts procurement capacity information generated by the parts procurement capacity calculation unit 17 (step S23), and the process ends.

[0052] The parts procurement capability estimation device 1 according to the embodiment can assist in detecting parts shortages in advance by calculating the parts procurement capability from suppliers.

[0053] Supply chain control using the parts procurement capability estimation device 1 will be described with reference to FIG. 14. As shown in FIG. 14, the user compares the parts procurement capability calculated by the parts procurement capability estimation device 1 with the required parts quantity required to produce products corresponding to the demand forecast on a monthly basis. If the required parts quantity is smaller than the parts procurement capability for all parts (YES), there is no possibility of parts shortages, so the process proceeds to creating a production plan. On the other hand, if there are parts whose required parts quantity is larger than the parts procurement capability for some parts (NO), there is a possibility of parts shortages, so the process proceeds to considering parts allocation and alternative parts. By utilizing the parts procurement capability estimation device 1 according to the embodiment, parts shortages relative to demand can be detected in advance, enabling rapid supply chain control. The parts procurement capability to be compared may be either the parts order-based parts procurement capability or the parts production-based parts procurement capability, or both. When using both, for example, if the required parts quantity is smaller than the parts order-based parts procurement capability and the parts production-based parts procurement capability for all parts (YES), there is no possibility of parts shortages, so the process proceeds to creating a production plan. On the other hand, if there is a part for which the required quantity is greater than the parts procurement capacity based on parts orders or the parts procurement capacity based on product production (NO), there is a possibility of a parts shortage, so we proceed to consider parts allocation and alternative parts.

[0054] The hardware configuration of parts procurement capability estimation device 1 will be described with reference to Fig. 15. As shown in Fig. 15, parts procurement capability estimation device 1 includes temporary storage unit 101, storage unit 102, calculation unit 103, input unit 104, transmission / reception unit 105, and display unit 106. Temporary storage unit 101, storage unit 102, input unit 104, transmission / reception unit 105, and display unit 106 are all connected to calculation unit 103 via a BUS.

[0055] Calculation unit 103 is, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit). Calculation unit 103 executes the processes of parts order delivery error calculation unit 12, parts required quantity calculation unit 13, parts required delivery error calculation unit 14, parts delivery time error coefficient calculation unit 15, monthly parts delivery performance calculation unit 16, and parts procurement capacity calculation unit 17 in accordance with a control program stored in storage unit 102.

[0056] The temporary storage unit 101 is, for example, a RAM (Random-Access Memory). The temporary storage unit 101 loads the control program stored in the storage unit 102 and is used as a work area for the calculation unit 103.

[0057] Storage unit 102 is a non-volatile memory such as a flash memory, a hard disk, a DVD-RAM (Digital Versatile Disc - Random Access Memory), or a DVD-RW (Digital Versatile Disc - Rewritable). Storage unit 102 pre-stores a program for causing calculation unit 103 to perform the processing of parts procurement capability estimation device 1, and also supplies information stored by this program to calculation unit 103 in accordance with instructions from calculation unit 103, and stores the information supplied from calculation unit 103. Storage unit 11 is configured in storage unit 102.

[0058] The input unit 104 is an interface device that connects input devices such as a keyboard, a pointing device, and a voice input device to the BUS. Information input by the user is supplied to the calculation unit 103 via the input unit 104. When the parts procurement capability estimation device 1 accepts setting inputs by the user, the input unit 104 functions as a setting unit.

[0059] The transmitting / receiving unit 105 is a network termination device or a wireless communication device that connects to the network, and a serial interface or a LAN (Local Area Network) interface that connects to them. When the parts procurement capability output unit 18 is configured to transmit parts procurement capability information to a terminal used by a user, the transmitting / receiving unit 105 functions as the parts procurement capability output unit 18. When the parts procurement capability estimation device 1 accepts setting input from a terminal used by a user, the transmitting / receiving unit 105 functions as a setting unit.

[0060] Display unit 106 is a display device such as an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display), an organic EL (Electroluminescence) display, etc. When parts procurement capability output unit 18 is configured to display parts procurement capability information on a screen, display unit 106 functions as parts procurement capability output unit 18.

[0061] The processing of memory unit 11, parts order delivery error calculation unit 12, parts required quantity calculation unit 13, parts required delivery error calculation unit 14, parts delivery time error coefficient calculation unit 15, monthly parts delivery performance calculation unit 16, parts procurement capacity calculation unit 17 and parts procurement capacity output unit 18 of parts procurement capacity estimation device 1 shown in Figure 1 is executed by a control program using temporary memory unit 101, calculation unit 103, memory unit 102, input unit 104, transmission / reception unit 105, display unit 106 and the like as resources.

[0062] Furthermore, the above hardware configuration and flowchart are merely examples and can be changed and modified as desired.

[0063] Core processing units of parts procurement capability estimation device 1, such as calculation unit 103, temporary storage unit 101, storage unit 102, input unit 104, transmission / reception unit 105, and display unit 106, can be realized using an ordinary computer system rather than a dedicated system. For example, parts procurement capability estimation device 1 that executes the above-described processes may be configured by storing and distributing a computer program for executing the above-described operations on a computer-readable recording medium, such as a flexible disk, CD-ROM (Compact Disc - Read Only Memory), or DVD-ROM (Digital Versatile Disc - Read Only Memory), and installing the computer program on a computer. Alternatively, parts procurement capability estimation device 1 may be configured by storing the computer program in a storage device of a server device on a communication network, such as the Internet, and downloading it into an ordinary computer system.

[0064] In addition, when the functions of the parts procurement capability estimation device 1 are realized by sharing the functions between an OS (Operating System) and an application program, or by collaboration between an OS and an application program, only the application program portion may be stored in a recording medium or storage device.

[0065] It is also possible to superimpose a computer program on a carrier wave and provide it via a communication network. For example, the computer program may be posted on a bulletin board system (BBS) on the communication network and provided via the communication network. The computer program may then be started and executed under the control of an OS in the same way as other application programs, thereby enabling the above-mentioned processing to be performed.

[0066] In the above embodiment, the parts procurement capability estimation device 1 includes the component parts list storage unit 114 in the storage unit 11, but this is not limiting. The parts procurement capability estimation device 1 may also include a component parts list setting unit that accepts settings for the component parts list. This allows the user to change and update the component parts list information.

[0067] In the above embodiment, the parts procurement capability estimation device 1 includes the parts delivery time error coefficient list storage unit 115 in the storage unit 11, but this is not limiting. The parts procurement capability estimation device 1 may also include a parts delivery time error coefficient list setting unit that accepts the setting of the parts delivery time error coefficient list. This allows the user to change the weighting of the parts delivery time error coefficient information.

[0068] In the above embodiment, the parts procurement capability estimation device 1 includes the storage unit 11, but this is not limiting. The storage unit 11 may be included in an external device or system.

[0069] In the above embodiment, parts procurement capability estimation device 1 includes required parts quantity calculation unit 13 and monthly parts delivery record calculation unit 16, but this is not limited to this. The required parts quantity information and monthly parts delivery record information may be acquired from an external device or system, or may be stored in storage unit 11. In this case, parts procurement capability estimation device 1 does not need to include required parts quantity calculation unit 13 and monthly parts delivery record calculation unit 16.

[0070] In the above embodiment, the parts procurement capability estimation device 1 outputs parts procurement capability information, but this is not limited to this. The parts procurement capability calculation unit 17 may store the parts procurement capability information in the storage unit 11. The parts procurement capability estimation device 1 may also include a predicted parts requirement acquisition unit that acquires, from a demand forecasting device that forecasts product demand, a predicted parts requirement on a monthly basis required to produce a product corresponding to the demand forecast; a comparison unit that compares, on a monthly basis, the parts procurement capability indicated by the parts procurement capability information with the predicted parts requirement acquired by the predicted parts requirement acquisition unit; a determination unit that determines that there is no possibility of parts shortages if the parts requirement is smaller than the parts procurement capability for all parts, and that there is a possibility of parts shortages if there is a part whose parts requirement is larger than the parts procurement capability; and a determination result output unit that outputs the determination result. The parts procurement capability to be compared may be either a parts order-based parts procurement capability or a product production-based parts procurement capability, or both. When both methods are used, for example, if the required parts quantity for all parts is smaller than the parts procurement capacity based on parts orders and the parts procurement capacity based on product production (YES), there is no possibility of parts shortages, so the process proceeds to creating a production plan. On the other hand, if there are parts whose required parts quantity is larger than the parts procurement capacity based on parts orders or the parts procurement capacity based on product production (NO), there is a possibility of parts shortages, so the process proceeds to considering parts allocation and alternative parts. In these cases, the parts procurement capability estimation device 1 does not need to include the parts procurement capability output unit 18. Furthermore, the parts procurement capability estimation device 1's predicted parts requirement acquisition unit may acquire a demand forecast from a demand forecasting device that forecasts product demand, and calculate the predicted parts requirement required for producing the product corresponding to the demand forecast based on the demand forecast. Furthermore, a parts procurement capability estimation system may be constructed that includes the parts procurement capability estimation device 1 and a demand forecasting device.

[0071] In the above embodiment, monthly parts delivery error coefficients are calculated to calculate monthly parts procurement capacity, but the unit period is not limited to one month and may be, for example, half a month or two months.

[0072] Although the preferred embodiments have been described in detail above, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and various modifications and substitutions can be made to the above-described embodiments without departing from the scope of the claims.

[0073] Various aspects of the present disclosure are summarized below as appendices.

[0074] (Appendix 1) A parts procurement capability estimation device that estimates a parts procurement capability from a supplier of parts used in the production of a product, comprising: a parts order delivery error calculation unit that calculates the error between the desired delivery date and the delivery date in the past for each part, and the error between the order quantity and the delivery quantity; a part required delivery error calculation unit that calculates the error between the part required date and delivery date and the error between the part required quantity and delivery quantity for each part in the past; a parts delivery error coefficient calculation unit that calculates a parts order-based parts delivery error coefficient that expresses, as coefficients, the error between a desired delivery date and a delivery date for each part per unit period and the error between an order quantity and a delivery quantity, and a product production-based parts delivery error coefficient that expresses, as coefficients, the error between a parts required date and a delivery date for each part per unit period and the error between a parts required quantity and a delivery quantity; a parts procurement capacity calculation unit that calculates a parts procurement capacity based on a parts order for each unit period and a parts procurement capacity based on a product production for each unit period based on delivery records of the parts for each unit period using the parts delivery error coefficient based on the parts order and the parts delivery error coefficient based on the product production; A parts procurement capability estimation device comprising: (Appendix 2) a parts order record storage unit that stores parts order record information indicating the order record of the parts to the supplier for each order number; a parts delivery record storage unit that stores parts delivery record information indicating delivery records of the parts from suppliers for each order number; Furthermore, the parts order delivery error calculation unit calculates an error between a desired delivery date and a delivery date and an error between an order quantity and a delivery quantity for each part based on the parts order record information and the parts delivery record information; 2. A parts procurement capability estimation device as set forth in claim 1. (Appendix 3) a product production record storage unit that stores product production record information indicating the actual number of units produced of the product; a component parts list storage unit that stores component parts list information indicating a list of parts that constitute the product; a part requirement calculation unit that calculates a part requirement date and part requirement quantity of the part based on the product production performance information and the component part list information; Furthermore, the part required delivery error calculation unit calculates an error between the part required date and delivery date and an error between the part required quantity and delivery quantity for each part, based on the part delivery record information and the part required date and part required quantity of the part calculated by the part required quantity calculation unit; 3. A parts procurement capability estimation device as set forth in appendix 2. (Appendix 4) a unit period parts delivery record calculation unit that calculates a parts delivery quantity for each unit period by summing up parts delivery quantities within the unit period based on the parts delivery record information, the parts delivery date error coefficient calculation unit calculates a parts delivery error coefficient based on the parts order and a parts delivery error coefficient based on the product production, based on the parts delivery quantity for each unit period calculated by the unit period parts delivery result calculation unit; 4. A parts procurement capability estimation device according to claim 2 or 3. (Appendix 5) the parts delivery error coefficient calculation unit calculates the parts order-based parts delivery error coefficient and the product production-based parts delivery error coefficient based on the parts delivery quantity for each unit period calculated by the parts delivery record calculation unit, using a parts delivery error coefficient list which is a matrix showing parameter coefficients representing errors from orders and requirements, with the horizontal axis representing the percentage of error in number of days and the vertical axis representing the percentage of error in quantity. 5. A parts procurement capability estimation device as set forth in appendix 4. (Appendix 6) a parts procurement capacity output unit that outputs parts procurement capacity information indicating the parts procurement capacity on a parts order basis for each unit period and the parts procurement capacity on a product production basis for each unit period calculated by the parts procurement capacity calculation unit, 6. A parts procurement capability estimation device according to any one of appendices 1 to 5. (Appendix 7) a predicted part requirement acquisition unit that acquires a predicted part requirement for each unit period that is necessary for producing a product corresponding to the demand forecast; a comparison unit that compares at least one of the parts procurement capacity based on parts orders for each unit period and the parts procurement capacity based on product production for each unit period calculated by the parts procurement capacity calculation unit with the predicted parts requirement for each unit period acquired by the predicted parts requirement acquisition unit; a determination unit that determines that there is no possibility of a parts shortage occurring when the predicted parts requirement is smaller than the parts procurement capacity for all parts, and that there is a possibility of a parts shortage occurring when there is a part whose predicted parts requirement is larger than the parts procurement capacity; Further provided with 6. A parts procurement capability estimation device according to any one of appendices 1 to 5. (Appendix 8) a parts procurement capability estimation device according to Supplementary Note 7; and a demand forecasting device that forecasts demand for the product; the predicted part requirement acquisition unit acquires the predicted part requirement from the demand prediction device, or acquires a demand forecast for the product from the demand prediction device and calculates the predicted part requirement based on the demand forecast for the product; Parts procurement capacity estimation system. (Appendix 9) A parts procurement capability estimation device is executed to estimate parts procurement capabilities from suppliers of parts used in the production of products; A step of calculating the error between the desired delivery date and the delivery date in the past for each part, and the error between the order quantity and the delivery quantity; a step of calculating an error between a part required date and a delivery date and an error between a part required quantity and a delivery quantity for each part in the past; calculating a parts order-based parts delivery error coefficient, which expresses, as coefficients, the error between the desired delivery date and the delivery date for each part per unit period and the error between the order quantity and the delivery quantity, and a product production-based parts delivery error coefficient, which expresses, as coefficients, the error between the part required date and the delivery date for each part per unit period and the error between the part required quantity and the delivery quantity; calculating a parts procurement capacity based on a parts order for each unit period and a parts procurement capacity based on a product production for each unit period based on a delivery record of the parts for each unit period using the parts delivery error coefficient based on the parts order and the parts delivery error coefficient based on the product production; A parts procurement capability estimation method comprising: (Appendix 10) Computer, a parts order delivery error calculation unit that calculates the error between the desired delivery date and the delivery date for each past part, and the error between the order quantity and the delivery quantity; a part required delivery error calculation unit that calculates the error between the part required date and delivery date and the error between the part required quantity and delivery quantity for each part in the past; a parts delivery error coefficient calculation unit that calculates a parts order-based parts delivery error coefficient that expresses, as a coefficient, the error between the desired delivery date and the delivery date for each part per unit period and the error between the order quantity and the delivery quantity, and a product production-based parts delivery error coefficient that expresses, as a coefficient, the error between the part required date and the delivery date for each part per unit period and the error between the part required quantity and the delivery quantity; and a parts procurement capacity calculation unit that calculates a parts procurement capacity based on a parts order for each unit period and a parts procurement capacity based on a product production for each unit period based on a delivery record of the parts for each unit period using the parts delivery error coefficient based on the parts order and the parts delivery error coefficient based on the product production; A program that functions as a [Explanation of symbols]

[0075] 1 Parts procurement capability estimation device, 11 memory unit, 12 parts order delivery error calculation unit, 13 parts required quantity calculation unit, 14 parts required delivery error calculation unit, 15 parts delivery date error coefficient calculation unit, 16 monthly parts delivery record calculation unit, 17 parts procurement capability calculation unit, 18 parts procurement capability output unit, 101 temporary memory unit, 102 memory unit, 103 calculation unit, 104 input unit, 105 transmission / reception unit, 106 display unit, 111 parts order record memory unit, 112 parts delivery record memory unit, 113 product production record memory unit, 114 component parts list memory unit, 115 parts delivery date error count list memory unit.

Claims

1. A parts procurement capability estimation device that estimates a parts procurement capability from a supplier of parts used in the production of a product, comprising: a parts order delivery error calculation unit that calculates the error between the desired delivery date and the delivery date in the past for each part, and the error between the order quantity and the delivery quantity; a part required delivery error calculation unit that calculates the error between the part required date and delivery date and the error between the part required quantity and delivery quantity for each part in the past; a parts delivery error coefficient calculation unit that calculates a parts order-based parts delivery error coefficient that expresses, as coefficients, the error between a desired delivery date and a delivery date for each part per unit period and the error between an order quantity and a delivery quantity, and a product production-based parts delivery error coefficient that expresses, as coefficients, the error between a parts required date and a delivery date for each part per unit period and the error between a parts required quantity and a delivery quantity; a parts procurement capacity calculation unit that calculates a parts procurement capacity based on a parts order for each unit period and a parts procurement capacity based on a product production for each unit period based on delivery records of the parts for each unit period using the parts delivery error coefficient based on the parts order and the parts delivery error coefficient based on the product production; A parts procurement capability estimation device comprising:

2. a parts order record storage unit that stores parts order record information indicating the order record of the parts to the supplier for each order number; a parts delivery record storage unit that stores parts delivery record information indicating delivery records of the parts from suppliers for each order number; Furthermore, the parts order delivery error calculation unit calculates an error between a desired delivery date and a delivery date and an error between an order quantity and a delivery quantity for each part based on the parts order record information and the parts delivery record information; The parts procurement capability estimation device according to claim 1 .

3. a product production record storage unit that stores product production record information indicating the actual number of units produced of the product; a component parts list storage unit that stores component parts list information indicating a list of parts that constitute the product; a part requirement calculation unit that calculates a part requirement date and part requirement quantity of the part based on the product production performance information and the component part list information; Furthermore, the part required delivery error calculation unit calculates an error between the part required date and delivery date and an error between the part required quantity and delivery quantity for each part, based on the part delivery record information and the part required date and part required quantity of the part calculated by the part required quantity calculation unit; The parts procurement capability estimation device according to claim 2 .

4. a unit period parts delivery record calculation unit that calculates a parts delivery quantity for each unit period by summing up parts delivery quantities within the unit period based on the parts delivery record information, the parts delivery date error coefficient calculation unit calculates the parts order-based parts delivery error coefficient and the product production-based parts delivery error coefficient based on the parts delivery quantity for each unit period calculated by the unit period parts delivery record calculation unit; 4. The parts procurement capability estimation device according to claim 2 or 3.

5. the parts delivery error coefficient calculation unit calculates the parts order-based parts delivery error coefficient and the product production-based parts delivery error coefficient based on the parts delivery quantity for each unit period calculated by the parts delivery record calculation unit, using a parts delivery error coefficient list which is a matrix showing parameter coefficients representing errors from orders and requirements, with the horizontal axis representing the percentage of error in number of days and the vertical axis representing the percentage of error in quantity. The parts procurement capability estimation device according to claim 4.

6. a parts procurement capacity output unit that outputs parts procurement capacity information indicating the parts procurement capacity on a parts order basis for each unit period and the parts procurement capacity on a product production basis for each unit period calculated by the parts procurement capacity calculation unit, 3. The parts procurement capability estimation device according to claim 1 or 2.

7. a predicted part requirement acquisition unit that acquires a predicted part requirement for each unit period that is necessary for producing a product corresponding to the demand forecast; a comparison unit that compares at least one of the parts procurement capacity based on parts orders for each unit period and the parts procurement capacity based on product production for each unit period calculated by the parts procurement capacity calculation unit with the predicted parts requirement for each unit period acquired by the predicted parts requirement acquisition unit; a determination unit that determines that there is no possibility of a parts shortage occurring when the predicted parts requirement is smaller than the parts procurement capacity for all parts, and that there is a possibility of a parts shortage occurring when there is a part whose predicted parts requirement is larger than the parts procurement capacity; Further provided with 3. The parts procurement capability estimation device according to claim 1 or 2.

8. a parts procurement capability estimation device according to claim 7; and a demand forecasting device that forecasts demand for the product; the predicted part requirement acquisition unit acquires the predicted part requirement from the demand prediction device, or acquires a demand forecast for the product from the demand prediction device and calculates the predicted part requirement based on the demand forecast for the product; Parts procurement capacity estimation system.

9. A parts procurement capability estimation device is executed to estimate parts procurement capabilities from suppliers of parts used in the production of products; A step of calculating the error between the desired delivery date and the delivery date in the past for each part, and the error between the order quantity and the delivery quantity; a step of calculating an error between a part required date and a delivery date and an error between a part required quantity and a delivery quantity for each part in the past; calculating a parts order-based parts delivery error coefficient, which expresses, as coefficients, the error between the desired delivery date and the delivery date for each part per unit period and the error between the order quantity and the delivery quantity, and a product production-based parts delivery error coefficient, which expresses, as coefficients, the error between the part required date and the delivery date for each part per unit period and the error between the part required quantity and the delivery quantity; calculating a parts procurement capacity based on a parts order for each unit period and a parts procurement capacity based on a product production for each unit period based on actual delivery records of the parts for each unit period using the parts delivery error coefficient based on the parts order and the parts delivery error coefficient based on the product production; A parts procurement capability estimation method comprising:

10. Computer, a parts order delivery error calculation unit that calculates the error between the desired delivery date and the delivery date for each past part, and the error between the order quantity and the delivery quantity; a part required delivery error calculation unit that calculates the error between the part required date and delivery date and the error between the part required quantity and delivery quantity for each past part; a parts delivery error coefficient calculation unit that calculates a parts order-based parts delivery error coefficient that expresses, as a coefficient, the error between the desired delivery date and the delivery date for each part per unit period and the error between the order quantity and the delivery quantity, and a product production-based parts delivery error coefficient that expresses, as a coefficient, the error between the part required date and the delivery date for each part per unit period and the error between the part required quantity and the delivery quantity; and a parts procurement capacity calculation unit that calculates a parts procurement capacity based on a parts order for each unit period and a parts procurement capacity based on a product production for each unit period based on a delivery record of the parts for each unit period using the parts delivery error coefficient based on the parts order and the parts delivery error coefficient based on the product production; A program that functions as a

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