Operation planning device, operation planning method, and combined heat and power supply system

Abstract

An operation planning device for generating an operation plan for power supply equipment and heat source equipment that operate electrical load equipment and heat load equipment installed in a facility or a region, the operation planning device comprising: a data acquisition unit that acquires at least one piece of data from among registration data relating to the facility or the region and registered in advance, input data input from the outside, measurement data measured by a sensor installed in the facility or the region, and outside data obtained through communication with the outside; an energy remaining amount acquisition unit that acquires a remaining amount of energy usable for the facility or the region before elapse of an energy continuation target time representing a desired time to continue the operations of the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment; a load prediction unit that provisionally determines an operation method for the electrical load equipment, an operation method for the heat load equipment, and an operation method for the facility or the region on the basis of the data acquired by the data acquisition unit and predicts, on the basis of those operation methods, loads imposed on the electrical load equipment and the heat load equipment until the elapse of the energy continuation target time; and an equipment operation planning unit that generates, on the basis of the loads on the electrical load equipment and the heat load equipment predicted by the load prediction unit, the operation plan for the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment which can be achieved with the usable remaining amount of energy acquired by the energy remaining amount acquisition unit.

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to an operation planning device, an operation planning method, and a combined heat and power system that manage the energy of a facility or a region during a disaster. [Background technology]

[0002] Facilities such as buildings and factories are equipped with load equipment such as air conditioning systems or lighting systems, power and heat sources such as cogeneration systems, power storage equipment such as batteries, heat storage equipment such as hot water tanks, and variable power sources such as solar power generation. Equipment monitoring and control systems may be installed to check the operating status of these facilities, detect abnormalities, and implement controls to achieve energy conservation. Facility managers utilize the monitoring and control systems to achieve objectives related to the operation of the facilities by analyzing the operating status of the facilities, implementing manual controls, implementing controls suggested by the monitoring and control systems, and implementing automatic controls by the monitoring and control systems.

[0003] In addition, local energy plants that supply energy to multiple facilities installed in a region incorporate heat source equipment such as chillers or boilers, and power and heat sources such as cogeneration systems. Furthermore, energy plants incorporate power storage equipment such as batteries, heat storage equipment such as thermal storage tanks, and variable power sources such as solar power generation. Equipment monitoring and control systems are deployed to check the operating status of these facilities, detect abnormalities, and implement control to achieve energy conservation.

[0004] Equipment such as power sources, heat sources, or power and heat sources installed in facilities such as buildings, factories, or energy plants receives electricity or fuel from an external source, converts the energy as needed, and supplies it to load equipment in the form of electricity, cold energy, hot energy, hot water, steam, etc.

[0005] A method has been proposed in which such a monitoring and control device plans and controls the operation of equipment to extend the duration of the electricity supply when the external electricity supply is cut off during a disaster (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

[0006] For example, Patent Document 1 proposes a monitoring and control device that optimizes the operation amount of load equipment based on load predictions during a commercial power outage, thereby extending the operation duration of a generator. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0007] [Patent Document 1] Patent No. 6563257 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0008] Conventional monitoring and control devices such as those described in Patent Document 1 are designed to control load equipment with a focus only on electricity, and therefore are unable to control loads that take into account the use of heat, such as cold, hot water, hot water, and steam.

[0009] For example, since a cogeneration system generates electricity and heat, the closer the ratio of electricity and heat generation matches the heat-to-power ratio, which is the ratio of electricity and heat usage, the more efficient the energy usage and the less waste there is. Therefore, if the heat-to-power ratio can be improved by controlling the load, it may be possible to extend the energy supply by the cogeneration system. However, Patent Document 1 does not take into consideration the improvement of the heat-to-power ratio, and therefore it is not possible to achieve optimal operation of the entire system, including the use of not only electricity but also heat.

[0010] The present disclosure has been made to solve such problems, and aims to provide an operation planning device, an operation planning method, and a combined heat and power supply system that can devise an operation plan that controls the load to improve the heat to power ratio depending on the situation, and extend the continuation of energy supply in the event of a disaster. [Means for solving the problem]

[0011] The operation planning device according to the present disclosure is an operation planning device that generates an operation plan for power supply equipment and heat source equipment that operate electric load equipment and heat load equipment installed in a facility or an area, and includes a data acquisition unit that acquires at least one of pre-registered registration data related to the facility or the area, input data input from outside, measurement data measured by a sensor installed in the facility or the area, and external data obtained by communication with the outside, and an energy acquisition unit that acquires the remaining amount of energy that can be used by the facility or the area until an energy sustainment target time indicating the time for which the operation of the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment is desired to continue has elapsed. The system includes a remaining amount acquisition unit, a load prediction unit that provisionally determines an operation method for the electric load equipment, an operation method for the heat load equipment, and an operation method for the facility or the area based on the data acquired by the data acquisition unit, and predicts the load of the electric load equipment and the load of the heat load equipment until the energy sustainment target time has elapsed based on the operation methods, and an equipment operation planning unit that generates an operation plan for the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment that can be achieved with the remaining amount of usable energy acquired by the energy remaining amount acquisition unit, based on the load of the electric load equipment and the load of the heat load equipment predicted by the load prediction unit.

[0012] The combined heat and power system according to the present disclosure is a combined heat and power system that generates an operation plan for power supply equipment and heat source equipment that operate electric load equipment and heat load equipment installed in a facility or area, and includes: a data acquisition unit that acquires at least one of pre-registered registration data related to the facility or the area, input data input from outside, measurement data measured by sensors installed in the facility or the area, and external data obtained by communication with the outside; a remaining energy acquisition unit that acquires the remaining amount of energy that can be used by the facility or the area until an energy sustainment target time representing a desired time for continuing operation of the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment has elapsed; a load prediction unit that provisionally determines an operation method for the electric load equipment, an operation method for the heat load equipment, and an operation method for the facility or the area based on the data acquired by the data acquisition unit, and predicts the load of the electric load equipment and the load of the heat load equipment until the energy sustainment target time has elapsed based on the operation methods; and This can be achieved by the remaining amount of usable energy acquired by the remaining energy acquisition unit.an equipment operation planning unit that generates operation plans for the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment; an energy consumption calculation unit that calculates, based on the operation plans generated by the equipment operation planning unit, the amount of energy consumed by the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment until the energy sustainment target time has elapsed; and an energy consumption calculation unit that changes a ratio of electricity and heat consumed by the electric load equipment and the heat load equipment so as to reduce the amount of energy consumption calculated by the energy consumption calculation unit, and determines, based on the ratio, at least one of an operation method for the electric load equipment, an operation method for the heat load equipment, and an operation method for the facility or the area. and an output unit that outputs at least one of the operation methods of the electric load equipment, the operation method of the heat load equipment, and the operation method of the facility or the area that have been updated by the load control examination unit; the system further comprises a first group having at least one of the data acquisition unit, the remaining energy acquisition unit, the load prediction unit, the equipment operation planning unit, the energy consumption calculation unit, the load control examination unit, and the output unit, and a second group having at least one of the others, wherein the first group is located outside the facility or the area.

[0013] The operation planning method according to the present disclosure generates an operation plan for power supply equipment and heat source equipment that operate electric load equipment and heat load equipment installed in a facility or area. By processing circuitAn operation planning method, comprising: acquiring at least one of pre-registered registration data relating to the facility or the area, input data input from outside, measurement data measured by sensors installed in the facility or the area, and external data obtained by communication with the outside; acquiring the remaining amount of energy usable by the facility or the area until an energy sustainment target time indicating a desired time for continuing operation of the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment has elapsed; provisionally determining an operation method for the electric load equipment, an operation method for the heat load equipment, and an operation method for the facility or the area based on the acquired data; predicting the load of the electric load equipment and the load of the heat load equipment until the energy sustainment target time has elapsed based on the operation methods; The system generates an operation plan for the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment based on the measured load of the electric load equipment and the load of the heat load equipment, calculates the amount of energy consumed by the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment until the energy sustainment target time has elapsed based on the generated operation plan, changes the ratio of electricity to heat consumed by the electric load equipment and the heat load equipment so as to reduce the calculated amount of energy consumption, updates at least one of the operation method of the electric load equipment, the operation method of the heat load equipment, and the operation method of the facility or the area based on the ratio, and outputs the updated at least one of the operation method of the electric load equipment, the operation method of the heat load equipment, and the operation method of the facility or the area. [Effects of the Invention]

[0014] According to the operation planning device, operation planning method, and cogeneration system disclosed herein, an operation plan for power supply equipment and heat source equipment is generated to achieve a target energy sustainment time, and load control is performed, thereby achieving the effect of enabling the energy supply to be continued for the desired period of time throughout the entire system that utilizes energy such as electricity and heat. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0015] [Figure 1] 1 is a configuration diagram showing the configuration of a monitoring and control device 11 provided in a cogeneration system 100 according to a first embodiment. [Figure 2] 1 is a diagram showing the connection relationship between an electric load facility 1, a heat load facility 2, a power supply facility 3, and a heat source facility 4 in a cogeneration system 100 according to a first embodiment. [Figure 3] 1 is a diagram showing the connection relationship between a power supply and heat source facility 30, an electric load facility 1, a heat load facility 2, and a heat source facility 4 in a combined heat and power supply system 100 according to a first embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example in which the heat and power ratio is changed to reduce the amount of energy used and extend the target energy sustained time in the cogeneration system 100 according to the first embodiment. [Figure 5] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example in which, in the combined heat and power supply system 100 according to embodiment 1, the amount of energy used is reduced and the target energy sustained time is extended by increasing the demand for electricity D1, decreasing the demand for hot water heat, and changing the heat-to-power ratio. [Figure 6] 1 is a configuration diagram showing a configuration of an operation planning device 13 according to a first embodiment. [Figure 7] 10 is a flowchart showing a flow when the operation planning device 13 according to the first embodiment outputs an operation method for the electric load equipment 1, an operation method for the heat load equipment 2, and an operation method for the facility 5A. [Figure 8] 10 is a configuration diagram showing the configuration of monitoring and control devices 11B and 11C provided in a cogeneration system 100 according to a second embodiment. FIG. [Figure 9] FIG. 10 is a configuration diagram showing a configuration of an operation planning device 13 according to a second embodiment. [Figure 10] 10 is a flowchart showing a flow when the operation planning device 13 according to the second embodiment outputs an operation method for the electric load facility 1, an operation method for the heat load facility 2, and an operation method for the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50. FIG. [Figure 11]10 is a flowchart showing a flow when the operation planning device 13 according to the third embodiment outputs an operation method for the electric load facility 1, an operation method for the heat load facility 2, and an operation method for the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50. FIG. [Figure 12] 10 is a flowchart showing a flow when the operation planning device 13 according to the fourth embodiment outputs an operation method for the electric load facility 1, an operation method for the heat load facility 2, and an operation method for the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50. FIG. [Figure 13] 10 is a graph plotting influence indexes of the results of optimization for a plurality of energy supply target times in the operation planning device 13 according to the fourth embodiment. FIG. [Figure 14] FIG. 14 is a diagram showing a comparison between operation method A and operation method B among the multiple operation methods in the graph of FIG. [Figure 15] 10 is a diagram showing the connection relationship of an electric load facility 1, a heat load facility 2, a power supply facility 3, a heat source facility 4, an electric storage facility 14, and a heat storage facility 15 in a combined heat and power supply system 100 according to a fifth embodiment. [Figure 16] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example in which the heat and power ratio is changed to reduce the amount of energy used and extend the target energy sustained time in the cogeneration system 100 according to the fifth embodiment. [Figure 17] FIG. 13 is a configuration diagram showing the configuration of an operation planning device 13 according to a sixth embodiment. [Figure 18] 1 is a plan view showing an example of the configuration of a facility 5A in which an operation planning device 13 according to the first embodiment is installed. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0016] Hereinafter, embodiments of an operation planning device, an operation planning method, and a cogeneration system according to the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings. The present disclosure is not limited to the following embodiments and can be modified in various ways without departing from the spirit of the present disclosure. Furthermore, the present disclosure includes all possible combinations of configurations shown in the following embodiments and their modifications. In each drawing, components with the same reference numerals are identical or equivalent, and this applies throughout the entire specification. Furthermore, when multiple similar devices or steps are distinguished by a subscript (capital letters at the end of the reference numeral), the subscript may be omitted if there is no need to distinguish or identify them. In each drawing, the relative dimensions or shapes of each component may differ from those in the actual situation.

[0017] Embodiment 1 FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram showing the configuration of a monitoring control device 11 provided in a combined heat and power supply system 100 according to the first embodiment. The combined heat and power supply system 100 is installed in, for example, a facility 5A. A monitoring control device 11 is installed within the facility 5A. The facility 5A is a building, a factory, or the like. An electric load equipment 1, a heat load equipment 2, a power supply equipment 3, and a heat source equipment 4 are also installed within the facility 5A. An access control system 18 is installed at the entrance and exit of the facility 5A. A facility manager or a facility user of the facility 5A carries a smartphone 17. The smartphone 17 transmits input data 9 to the monitoring control device 11 when data is input by the facility manager or the facility user.

[0018] The monitoring and control device 11, the electrical load equipment 1, the thermal load equipment 2, the power supply equipment 3, the heat source equipment 4, and the access control system 18 are connected by a communication path so as to be able to communicate with a smartphone 17. The communication path may be wireless only or may be a combination of wired and wireless. The monitoring and control device 11 is also connected to the Internet 20 via a communication device 16.

[0019] Additionally, multiple sensors 10 are installed within facility 5A. The sensors 10 measure various data and transmit measurement data 7 to monitoring control device 11. The sensors 10 may be built into equipment within facility 5A, added to the equipment later, or installed independently. Here, the equipment may be, for example, electrical load equipment 1, thermal load equipment 2, power supply equipment 3, heat source equipment 4, and access control system 18. The equipment may also be a distribution board or power receiving equipment that supplies power to each piece of equipment, such as electrical load equipment 1, thermal load equipment 2, power supply equipment 3, heat source equipment 4, and access control system 18, or a smartphone 17 owned by a facility manager or facility user. Among the sensors 10, examples of independently installed sensors 10 include a thermometer that measures indoor or outdoor temperature and a hygrometer that measures indoor or outdoor humidity.

[0020] The monitoring control device 11 has a storage unit 12 and an operation planning device 13. The storage unit 12 pre-stores registered data 6 including architectural design data for the facility 5A and equipment design data for each of the electrical load equipment 1, the thermal load equipment 2, the power supply equipment 3, and the heat source equipment 4. The registered data 6 includes, for example, the total floor area of ​​the facility 5A, the intended use of the facility 5A, and equipment specification data for each of the electrical load equipment 1, the thermal load equipment 2, the power supply equipment 3, and the heat source equipment 4. The operation planning device 13 utilizes the registered data 6 stored in the storage unit 12 and measurement data 7 collected from the sensor 10 to prepare an operation plan for the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 and to propose an operating method for the facility 5A to the facility manager.

[0021] The monitoring control device 11 stores the registration data 6 held by the monitoring control device 11 in advance in the storage unit 12. Therefore, based on the registration data 6, the monitoring control device 11 can refer to design information of the facility 5A and each of the pieces of equipment 1 to 4, such as the total floor area and use of the facility 5A, and the equipment configuration of each of the pieces of equipment 1 to 4.

[0022] The monitoring control device 11 can also acquire measurement data 7 from each sensor 10. Furthermore, the monitoring control device 11 can acquire external data 8 obtained by communication with the outside world via the Internet 20. The external data 8 is data obtained from content 21 on the Internet 20. As shown in FIG. 1 , examples of the content 21 include weather information, weather forecasts, infrastructure recovery information, other monitoring control devices 11X installed in remote locations, disaster information, disaster response status, and information from social network services. Thus, the external data 8 includes, for example, information about weather and information about disasters.

[0023] Furthermore, the monitoring control device 11 can acquire input data 9 that a facility manager or facility user inputs to the monitoring control device 11 via an interface (not shown) that the monitoring control device 11 has. Examples of the interface that the monitoring control device 11 has include a keyboard, a mouse, and a display connected to a computer that executes each function of the monitoring control device 11. Furthermore, other examples of the interface that the monitoring control device 11 has include a computer and a smartphone 17 that can access the functions of a web server provided by the monitoring control device 11.

[0024] These data 6 to 9 are used by the monitoring control device 11 to determine how to operate the facility 5A in the event of a disaster. However, since it is sufficient to have enough data to determine the operation method, not all of these data 6 to 9 are necessarily required. In other words, the monitoring control device 11 uses at least one of these data 6 to 9 as needed. For example, we will explain a case where data on the number of evacuees in the event of a disaster is required to determine how to operate the facility, such as how to accommodate evacuees in each space of the facility 5A in the event of a disaster. In this case, for example, there are the following three cases. (1) A predetermined estimated number of people is stored in the registered data 6 held by the monitoring and control device 11, and the number of people in the registered data 6 is used as the number of evacuees. (2) The number of people staying in the facility 5A is measured by the sensor 10 attached to the entry / exit management system 18, and the measurement data 7 obtained by this measurement is used as the number of evacuees. (3) The facility manager of facility 5A inputs the number of people confirmed on-site into smartphone 17. Then, the input data 9 may be transmitted to monitoring control device 11 and used as the number of evacuees. In this way, the monitoring control device 11 may use, for example, any one of the registration data 6, the measurement data 7, and the input data 9 to determine the facility operation method.

[0025] 2 is a diagram showing the connection relationship between the electric load equipment 1, the heat load equipment 2, the power supply equipment 3, and the heat source equipment 4 in the cogeneration system 100 according to the first embodiment. The power supply equipment 3 is connected to the electric load equipment 1 and the heat source equipment 4. The heat source equipment 4 is connected to the heat load equipment 2.

[0026] The power supply equipment 3 consumes fuel to generate electricity. Under normal circumstances, fuel is supplied to the power supply equipment 3 from outside the facility 5A. However, in the event of a disaster, when fuel cannot be supplied from outside, fuel stored in the facility 5A is consumed. Examples of the power supply equipment 3 include a micro gas turbine generator and a diesel generator. The electricity generated by the power supply equipment 3 is mainly supplied to the electrical load equipment 1, which operates by consuming electricity. The main energy consumed by the electrical load equipment 1 is electricity. However, here, the electrical load equipment 1 also includes equipment that operates by receiving a supplementary supply of heat. Examples of equipment classified as the electrical load equipment 1 include an electric light 1a and an individual distributed air conditioner 1b. The electric light 1a is installed in the space to be illuminated and generates light to illuminate the space. The individual distributed air conditioner 1b is installed in the space to be air-conditioned and supplies heat (cold or hot) to the air in the space. The individual distributed air conditioner 1b has a heat exchanger and exchanges heat between the refrigerant flowing inside the heat exchanger and the air flowing around the heat exchanger. The electricity generated by the power supply equipment 3 can also be supplied to the heat source equipment 4. Furthermore, the exhaust heat generated as a by-product when the power supply equipment 3 generates electricity can also be supplied to the heat source equipment 4 and used effectively.

[0027] The heat source equipment 4 generates heat (cold, hot, or steam) using electricity, fuel, or both electricity and fuel. Under normal circumstances, electricity and fuel are supplied to the heat source equipment 4 from outside the facility 5A. However, in the event of a disaster, when electricity and fuel are unavailable from outside, the heat source equipment 4 consumes fuel stored in the facility 5A or is supplied from the power supply equipment 3. Examples of the heat source equipment 4 include heat source machines such as chillers and boilers. Other examples of the heat source equipment 4 include waste heat recovery heat exchangers and waste heat recovery absorption chillers that operate using waste heat received from the power supply equipment 3. The heat generated by the heat source equipment 4 is mainly supplied to the heat load equipment 2, which consumes heat. The primary energy consumed by the heat load equipment 2 is heat. However, here, the heat load equipment 2 also includes equipment that operates with a supplementary supply of electricity. Examples of equipment classified as the heat load equipment 2 include a central heat source air conditioner 2a and a hot water heater 2b. The central source air conditioner 2a cools or heats the room by supplying cold or hot heat to the air in the room. The central source air conditioner 2a sends cold water or hot water to a heat exchanger, where heat is exchanged between the room air and the cold water or between the room air and the hot water. The water heater 2b supplies hot water to a hot water tank by supplying hot heat to water.

[0028] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the connection relationship between a power supply and heat source equipment 30, an electrical load equipment 1, a heat load equipment 2, and a heat source equipment 4 in a combined heat and power supply system 100 according to the first embodiment. In FIG. 3, a facility 5A is provided with a power supply and heat source equipment 30 configured so that the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 shown in FIG. 2 function as an integrated unit. The power supply and heat source equipment 30 receives a supply of fuel and generates electricity and heat. Examples of the power supply and heat source equipment 30 include a gas cogeneration system and a fuel cell. In the example of FIG. 3, a heat source equipment 4A is provided adjacent to the power supply and heat source equipment 30. Here, the letter "A" is added to the end of the reference numeral of the heat source equipment 4A to distinguish it from the heat source equipment 4 constituting the power supply and heat source equipment 30; however, the configuration and operation of the heat source equipment 4A are basically the same as those of the heat source equipment 4. As explained using FIG. 2, the heat source equipment 4 and 4A generate heat (cold heat, hot heat, steam) by receiving a supply of electricity, or fuel, or both electricity and fuel. Note that in FIG. 3, as in FIG. 2, the electricity and exhaust heat generated by the power supply and heat source equipment 30 are used in the heat source equipment 4A. Furthermore, the electricity generated mainly by the power supply equipment 3 of the power supply and heat source equipment 30 is consumed in the electrical load equipment 1, and the heat generated mainly by the heat source equipment 4 of the power supply and heat source equipment 30 is consumed in the thermal load equipment 2. Furthermore, the heat generated by the heat source equipment 4A is consumed in the thermal load equipment 2. In this way, the operation of the power supply equipment 3 and heat source equipment 4 included in the power supply and heat source equipment 30, and the operation of the heat source equipment 4A installed alongside it, are the same as those of the power supply equipment 3 and heat source equipment 4 shown in FIG. 2.

[0029] The power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 may be installed separately in combination as in the example of Fig. 2, or may be operated as an integrated unit as in the example of Fig. 3. In either case, however, the system as a whole is configured to be able to meet the demands of both the electrical load equipment 1 and the thermal load equipment 2, and the exhaust heat generated by the power supply equipment 3 is used by the heat source equipment 4. Such a system is called a "cogeneration system 100."

[0030] The cogeneration system 100 generates electricity and heat, and the efficiency of the cogeneration system 100 varies depending on the ratio of the energy amounts of electricity and heat. When the power supply equipment 3 generates electricity, it simultaneously generates waste heat. When the power supply equipment 3 generates electricity in accordance with the amount of electricity used by the electrical load equipment 1, the amount of waste heat is determined according to the characteristics of the power supply equipment 3. The waste heat is converted by the heat source equipment 4 so that it can be used by the thermal load equipment 2. Any waste heat in excess of the amount consumed by the thermal load equipment 2 is unnecessary and is therefore discarded without being used effectively. Here, "discarded" refers to natural heat dissipation or heat dissipation via a cooling tower. As a result, the discarded waste heat portion of the energy of the fuel input to the power supply equipment 3 is not used effectively, and the energy efficiency of the entire system decreases.

[0031] The ratio between the electricity generated by the combined heat and power system 100 and the heat generated as a result is called the heat-to-power ratio. Here, "heat" includes both the waste heat generated by the power supply facility 3 and the heat generated by the heat source facility 4. The heat-to-power ratio of the combined heat and power system 100 is determined by the characteristics of the combined heat and power system 100. The heat-to-power ratio may only be a fixed value depending on the combined heat and power system 100, or it may be possible to change the heat-to-power ratio within a certain range. However, because it is impossible for the generator that constitutes the power supply facility 3 to convert all of the energy of the fuel input into the power supply facility 3 into electricity due to the principles of the generator, the heat-to-power ratio cannot take on any value.

[0032] The closer the ratio of electricity to heat used in the electrical load equipment 1 and the thermal load equipment 2 is to the heat-to-power ratio of the combined heat and power supply system 100, the more efficiently the combined heat and power supply system 100 uses energy. Generally, facilities such as office buildings have a high usage amount of electrical load equipment 1 and a low usage amount of heat in the thermal load equipment 2, so the heat-to-power ratio may not match that of existing combined heat and power supply systems 100. On the other hand, facilities that use a lot of heat, such as hospitals and hotels, often have a heat-to-power ratio close to that of existing combined heat and power supply systems 100, allowing for efficient energy use. In this way, the efficiency of the combined heat and power supply system 100, that is, the proportion of energy that is effectively utilized out of the energy input, changes based on the amount of heat and electricity used in the energy users, the electrical load equipment 1 and the thermal load equipment 2.

[0033] Next, we will explain energy usage at facility 5A during a disaster. During a disaster, the actual energy usage at facility 5A changes depending on the level of the disaster, but here we consider a case where electricity and fuel cannot be procured from outside facility 5A, or where there is a limit to the amount that can be procured. "Limited" means a case where there is a power outage but it is possible to discharge from a storage battery, a case where new fuel cannot be procured but there is a fuel stockpile, a case where there are rolling power outages and there are times when there are power outages but there are also times when power can be used, etc.

[0034] In the event of a disaster, Facility 5A will be given a guideline or target "energy sustainment target time" for continuing independent operation, depending on the times or local requirements.

[0035] Depending on the scale of the disaster, rescuing survivors takes priority for 72 hours after the disaster occurs. For this reason, it is said that full-scale relief supplies and assistance for evacuees begin 72 hours or later after the disaster occurs. In addition, since it takes a considerable amount of time to restore energy infrastructure such as electricity and gas, it is desirable for Facility 5A to be energy independent for at least 72 hours, and ideally about one week. In this way, the "energy sustainment target time" is the target period for Facility 5A to continue operating energy-independently without receiving relief supplies or assistance. Note that the above values ​​of 72 hours and one week are merely examples and are not limiting.

[0036] If energy procurement is limited and Facility 5A continues to operate independently for the "energy sustainment target time," it may be necessary to restrict energy use in some cases. For example, if a generator consumes fuel to meet electricity demand, knowing future electricity demand makes it possible to predict the amount of time the generator can operate based on the remaining fuel and the generator's characteristics. If the predicted operating time falls below the "energy sustainment target time," it is possible to give up on satisfying some of the electricity demand and supply electricity only to selected demands based on importance or urgency, or based on human judgment.

[0037] As mentioned above, facility 5A has electrical load equipment 1 and thermal load equipment 2. As mentioned above, the efficiency of cogeneration system 100 changes depending on the heat / power ratio. When energy procurement is restricted, the ratio of the amount of electricity used by electrical load equipment 1 and the amount of heat used by thermal load equipment 2 of facility 5A, and the total amount of electricity and heat used, can be changed to enable the system to continue independent operation for a preset "energy sustainment target time."

[0038] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example in which the heat and power ratio is changed to reduce energy consumption and extend the target energy sustainment time in the cogeneration system 100 according to the first embodiment. FIG. 4(a) shows a graph before the heat and power ratio is improved, and FIG. 4(b) shows a graph after the heat and power ratio is improved. FIGS. 4(a) and 4(b) each show two bars, one representing the demand amount and the other representing the supply amount. In the following description, the configuration of FIG. 3, in which the power and heat source equipment 30 is installed, is used as an example.

[0039] As shown in the graph on the left side of Figure 4(a), before the improvement, there is a demand for electricity D1 and a demand for chilled water as heat D2. The demand for electricity D1 is greater than the demand for chilled water D2. In this case, as shown in the graph on the right side of Figure 4(a), the demand for electricity D1 is satisfied by the supply of electricity G1 generated by the power source and heat source equipment 30. The demand for chilled water D2 is satisfied by converting the waste heat G2 generated by the power source and heat source equipment 30 into chilled water via a waste heat recovery absorption chiller, which is the heat source equipment 4. Of the waste heat from the power source and heat source equipment 30, there is waste heat G3 that is not used to generate chilled water, and this waste heat G3 is discarded unused.

[0040] Therefore, it is desirable to make an improvement by reducing the demand for electricity D1 and increasing the demand for chilled water D2 so that the waste heat G3 is reduced. To achieve this improvement, the operation methods of each of the facilities 1 to 4 are changed.

[0041] Specifically, to reduce electricity demand D1, the individual distributed air conditioners that make up the electrical load equipment 1 are excluded from operation in certain areas, and the operation of the individual distributed air conditioners is stopped in those areas. Meanwhile, the operation of the central heat-source air conditioners 2a that make up the thermal load equipment 2 is increased. In this way, the operation methods of the electrical load equipment 1 and the thermal load equipment 2 are changed. This change can be achieved by simply shutting down the individual distributed air conditioners or by changing the evacuation location for evacuees to an area with a central heat-source air conditioner. By changing the evacuation location for evacuees to an area with a central heat-source air conditioner, the individual distributed air conditioners do not need to be operated, and the operation volume of the central heat-source air conditioner increases. To create this situation within facility 5A, the operation methods of facility 5A are changed to change the operation methods of the electrical load equipment 1 and the thermal load equipment 2.

[0042] As shown in the graph on the left side of Figure 4(b), after the improvement, the demand for electricity D1 has decreased and the demand for chilled water D2 has increased compared to before the improvement. As shown in the graph on the right side of Figure 4(b), the demand for electricity D1 is satisfied by the supply of electricity G1 generated by the power source and heat source equipment 30. The demand for chilled water D2 is satisfied by converting the waste heat G2 generated by the power source and heat source equipment 30 into chilled water via the waste heat recovery absorption chiller, which is the heat source equipment 4. Of the waste heat from the power source and heat source equipment 30, there is waste heat G3 that was not used to generate chilled water, but this waste heat G3 has decreased compared to before the improvement.

[0043] In this way, after the improvement, the electricity consumption by the individual distributed air conditioner 1b is reduced, and the electricity demand D1 decreases. The amount of electricity generated by the power supply and heat source equipment 30 can be reduced by the same amount. In other words, the fuel consumed by the power supply and heat source equipment 30 decreases.

[0044] If the individual distributed air conditioner 1b is simply stopped, the demand for chilled water D2 remains unchanged. If the evacuation location of the evacuees is changed and the operation rate of the central heat source air conditioner 2a is increased, the demand for chilled water D2 increases. In either case, the demand for electricity D1 decreases and the demand for chilled water D2 remains the same or increases, so the ratio of heat usage to electricity increases.

[0045] As the demand for chilled water D2 increases, the amount of chilled water generated from exhaust heat by the power and heat source equipment 30 increases, and the amount of exhaust heat G2 used increases. As the amount of power generation decreases, the amount of exhaust heat also decreases, but as long as the sum of the absolute value of the decrease in the amount of exhaust heat and the increase in the amount of exhaust heat used is below the amount of exhaust heat G3 before the improvement, the demand for chilled water D2 can be met without any shortage.

[0046] By changing the evacuation location of evacuees and increasing the operation rate of central heat source air conditioner 2a, if demand for chilled water D2 is increasing, it is possible to satisfy the necessary demands D1 and D2 while reducing the fuel consumed by power supply and heat source equipment 30. Furthermore, by combining the method of reducing electricity demand by simply stopping individual distributed air conditioners with the method of changing the evacuation location, it is possible to further reduce fuel consumption.

[0047] As described above, by changing the control of each piece of equipment 1 to 4 or by changing the operating method of facility 5A to change the heat-to-power ratio of demands D1 and D2, it is possible to reduce energy consumption and extend the "target energy sustainment time" during which facility 5A continues to operate autonomously.

[0048] Control of the facilities 1 to 4 is not limited to only reducing the demand D1 for electricity, and there are cases where control is also considered to increase the demand D1 for electricity.

[0049] Fig. 5 is a diagram showing an example in which energy consumption is reduced and the target energy sustainment time is extended by increasing the electricity demand D1, decreasing the demand for hot water heat, and changing the heat-to-power ratio in the cogeneration system 100 according to the first embodiment. Fig. 5(a) shows a graph before the heat-to-power ratio is improved, and Fig. 5(b) shows a graph after the heat-to-power ratio is improved. Fig. 5(a) and Fig. 5(b) each show two bars, one representing the demand amount and the other representing the supply amount.

[0050] As shown in the graph on the left side of Figure 5(a), before the improvement, there is a demand for electricity D1 and a demand for hot water as heat D2. The demand for electricity D1 is less than the demand for hot water D2. In this case, the demand for electricity D1 is met by the supply of electricity G1 generated by the power source and heat source equipment 30. The demand for hot water D2 is met by converting the exhaust heat from the power source and heat source equipment 30 into hot water via a heat exchanger and supplying it, but this alone is not enough. For this reason, the boiler that makes up the heat source equipment 4 generates hot water BO to make up the shortfall.

[0051] As shown in the graph on the left side of FIG. 5(b), after the improvement, the demand for electricity D1 has increased and the demand for hot water D2 has decreased compared to before the improvement.

[0052] In this way, after the improvement, the control of each of the facilities 1 to 4 or the operation method of the facility 5A is changed so that the demand for electricity D1 increases, and therefore the amount of electricity generated by the power source and heat source facility 30 increases. As a result, the fuel consumption of the power source and heat source facility 30 increases. On the other hand, the waste heat generated by the power source and heat source facility 30 also increases, and therefore the amount of hot water generated from the waste heat also increases. Because the shortage in the supply of hot water in response to the demand D2 for hot water decreases, the operation of the boiler that constitutes the heat source facility 4 decreases. As a result, the fuel consumption of the boiler that constitutes the heat source facility 4 decreases. The increase in fuel consumption of the power source and heat source facility 30 is less than the decrease in fuel consumption of the boiler that constitutes the heat source facility 4, and therefore the amount of fuel consumption can be reduced.

[0053] FIG. 18 is a plan view showing an example of the configuration of a facility 5A in which an operation planning device 13 according to the first embodiment is installed. As shown in FIG. 18, the facility 5A has a plurality of areas R1 to R5. The areas R1 to R5 are, for example, living spaces in the facility 5A and are separated from each other by walls or the like. Each of the areas R1 to R5 is provided with an electric light 1a constituting the electric load equipment 1. Furthermore, the area R1 is provided with a central heat source air conditioner 2a constituting the heat load equipment 2. Meanwhile, the areas R2 to R5 are provided with individual distributed air conditioners 1b constituting the electric load equipment 1.

[0054] Therefore, if the operation method of facility 5A is determined so that all evacuees stay in area R1, the demand for hot or cold water D2 increases and the demand for electricity D1 decreases. Furthermore, if the operation method of facility 5A is determined so that all evacuees are divided into areas R2 to R5, the demand for hot or cold water D2 decreases but the demand for electricity D1 increases. Furthermore, if the operation method of facility 5A is determined so that all evacuees stay in one of areas R2 to R5, the demand for hot or cold water D2 decreases and the demand for electricity D1 decreases. However, in this case, the evacuees will be concentrated in that area, which may cause discomfort to the evacuees. Thus, by determining the operation method of facility 5A, the operation methods of electrical load equipment 1 and thermal load equipment 2 are automatically determined. Furthermore, since the electrical load and thermal load are determined, operation plans for power supply equipment 3 and heat source equipment 4 can be generated accordingly.

[0055] 6 is a configuration diagram showing the configuration of the operation planning device 13 according to Embodiment 1. As shown in FIG. 6, the operation planning device 13 includes a data acquiring unit 101, a remaining energy amount acquiring unit 102, a load predicting unit 103, an equipment operation planning unit 104, an energy consumption calculating unit 105, a load control examining unit 106, and an output unit 107.

[0056] The data acquisition unit 101 acquires at least one of the following data: registration data 6 previously stored in the monitoring control device 11; measurement data 7 collected from the sensor 10; external data 8 obtained through external communication; and input data 9 entered by a facility manager or the like. The registration data 6 is previously stored in the storage unit 12 of the monitoring control device 11. The measurement data 7 measured by the sensor 10 is transmitted from the sensor 10 to the data acquisition unit 101 via wired or wireless communication. The data acquisition unit 101 downloads the external data 8 from content 21 on the Internet 20 via the Internet 20 and a communication device 16. The input data 9 is input into a smartphone 17 by a facility manager or the like. The smartphone 17 transmits the input data 9 to the data acquisition unit 101 via the communication device 16.

[0057] Here, examples of each of the data 6 to 9 acquired by the data acquisition unit 101 will be described. Note that the following examples are merely examples and are not limited to these. Furthermore, each of the data 6 to 9 may include at least one of the data in the following examples.

[0058] The registered data 6 includes architectural design data including, for example, the number of facilities 5A, the total floor area of ​​the facilities 5A, the uses of the facilities 5A, the total floor area by use of the facilities 5A, the geographical location of the facilities 5A, the dimensions and structure of the walls of the buildings of the facilities 5A, the insulation performance of the facilities 5A, the dimensions and structure of openings such as windows provided in the facilities 5A, etc. The registered data 6 may further include facility design data including equipment specification data such as the number of each of the facilities 1 to 4 installed in the facilities 5A, such as the electric load equipment 1, the heat load equipment 2, the power supply equipment 3, and the heat source equipment 4, the capacity of each of the facilities 1 to 4, the capacity of each of the facilities 1 to 4, the efficiency of each of the facilities 1 to 4, operation constraints for each of the facilities 1 to 4, constraints on the rate of change of operation for each of the facilities 1 to 4, and the connection relationships between the facilities 1 to 4.

[0059] The input data 9 includes data entered into a smartphone 17 carried by a facility manager or a user. The input data 9 may also include data acquired by a portable camera, a portable sensor, or a portable recording device carried by a facility manager or a user. The input data 9 may also include data visually confirmed by a facility manager or a user and entered into a smartphone 17 or the like. The input data may also include survey result data collected via a portable device carried by a facility manager or a user. The input data 9 may also include data resulting from a judgment made by a facility manager or a user.

[0060] The measurement data 7 is data measured by each sensor 10. The measurement data 7 includes, for example, data on physical quantities, such as temperature, humidity, illuminance, flow rate, and pressure at the location where the sensor 10 is installed in the facility 5A, as well as the power and amount of power in the power supply equipment 3 or the electrical load equipment 1. The measurement data 7 may also include data on the operational status of each piece of equipment 1 to 4 installed in the facility 5A, such as the electrical load equipment 1, the heat load equipment 2, the power supply equipment 3, and the heat source equipment 4, including start / stop status, operation mode, and abnormalities of each piece of equipment. The measurement data 7 may also include data on people flow, such as the number of people entering and leaving the facility 5A, each room in the facility 5A, or the area 50 (see FIG. 8), or personal data.

[0061] The external data 8 includes at least one of the following distributed via the Internet 20: weather observation values, weather forecast values, disaster information, information on disaster response activities, information on the restoration of electricity and fuel infrastructure, information on social network services, and information received from a remotely connected monitoring and control device 11X.

[0062] The remaining energy acquisition unit 102 acquires the remaining amount of energy that can be used until the "target energy continuation time" indicating the desired time for continuing operation of the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 has elapsed. The remaining energy acquisition unit 102 calculates the remaining amount of energy that can be used based on, for example, the amount of fuel stockpiled in advance in the facility 5A.

[0063] The load prediction unit 103 provisionally determines an operation method for the electric load equipment 1, an operation method for the heat load equipment 2, and an operation method for the facility 5A based on the data acquired by the data acquisition unit 101. The load prediction unit 103 calculates the operation amounts of the electric load equipment 1 and the heat load equipment 2, including the ventilation operation amount by the air conditioner or ventilation device (not shown), the operation amount of the air conditioner, and the operation amount of the electric light 1a, based on, for example, the space where the evacuees are staying in the facility 5A, how they spend their time, the number of people, weather information, and the insulation performance of the facility 5A, and calculates a predicted electric load and a predicted heat load. The predicted electric load and the predicted heat load calculated by the load prediction unit 103 are the predicted load values ​​of the electric load equipment 1 and the heat load equipment 2 until the "energy sustainment target time" has elapsed.

[0064] The equipment operation planning unit 104 generates an operation plan for the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 so as to satisfy the load of the electric load equipment 1 and the load of the heat load equipment 2 based on the predicted value of the load calculated by the load prediction unit 103. In other words, the equipment operation planning unit 104 generates an operation plan for the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 so as to satisfy the demand of the graph on the left side of FIG. 4(a) or FIG. 5(a). The method of generating the operation plan in the equipment operation planning unit 104 may be, for example, any of the following methods. (1) A method of allocating the operating amounts of the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 in order based on a rule set in advance so as to satisfy the predicted values ​​of the electrical load and the thermal load. (2) A method in which initial values ​​for the operating amounts of the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 are first given appropriately, and then calculations are repeatedly performed to find the operating amounts of the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 that satisfy the load according to an algorithm. (3) A method of formulating an optimization problem that determines the operating amounts of the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 so that the total value of the energy consumption of the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 is minimized, and finding the optimal solution.

[0065] The energy consumption calculation unit 105 calculates the energy consumption of the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4, i.e., the fuel consumption, until the "energy sustainment target time" has elapsed, based on the operation plans of the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 generated by the equipment operation planning unit 104. The energy consumption is calculated for each type of fuel.

[0066] The load control examining unit 106 examines a method for improving the ratio of electricity to heat consumption in the electric load equipment 1 and the heat load equipment 2 so as to reduce the energy consumption calculated by the energy consumption calculation unit 105. Specifically, the load control examining unit 106 examines at least one operation method among an operation method for the electric load equipment 1, an operation method for the heat load equipment 2, and an operation method for the facility 5A. The load control examining unit 106 first calculates the energy shortage based on the energy consumption calculated by the energy consumption calculation unit 105. Specifically, the load control examining unit 106 first acquires the remaining energy acquired by the remaining energy acquisition unit 102 for each fuel type. Next, the load control examining unit 106 compares the remaining energy with the energy consumption calculated by the energy consumption calculation unit 105 for each fuel type to calculate the shortage. Next, the load control review unit 106 determines whether there is an energy shortage based on the calculated shortage amount, and if there is a shortage, changes the operation methods of the electric load equipment 1, the heat load equipment 2, and the facility 5A, and transmits the changed operation method to the load prediction unit 103. On the other hand, if there is no energy shortage, the load control review unit 106 transmits the operation methods of the electric load equipment, the heat load equipment, and the facility 5A at that time to the output unit 107.

[0067] The output unit 107 outputs at least one of the operation method of the electric load equipment 1, the operation method of the heat load equipment 2, and the operation method of the facility 5A that have been considered by the load control consideration unit 106. The output method of the output unit 107 is to display it on the display of a computer that constitutes the monitoring control device 11, or to send it to the smartphone 17 of the facility manager. Alternatively, the output unit 107 may display it on a display device (not shown) installed in the facility 5A, or broadcast an audio message within the facility 5A to notify the facility manager and evacuees that the operation method of the facility 5A has been changed.

[0068] Here, the hardware configuration of the monitoring control device 11 and the operation planning device 13 will be described. The monitoring control device 11 and the operation planning device 13 are composed of a processing circuit. The processing circuit is composed of dedicated hardware or a processor. The dedicated hardware is, for example, an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) or an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array). The processor executes programs stored in memory. The storage unit 12 is composed of memory. The memory is a non-volatile or volatile semiconductor memory such as RAM (Random Access Memory), ROM (Read Only Memory), flash memory, or EPROM (Erasable Programmable ROM), or a disk such as a magnetic disk, a flexible disk, or an optical disk.

[0069] FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing a flow when the operation planning device 13 according to the first embodiment outputs the operation method of the electric load facility 1, the operation method of the heat load facility 2, and the operation method of the facility 5A.

[0070] In step S01, the load prediction unit 103 determines the operation method of the electric load equipment 1, the operation method of the heat load equipment 2, and the operation method of the facility 5A using the registered data 6 held by the monitoring and control device 11 and the data 7 to 9 acquired by the data acquisition unit 101. The operation method of the facility 5A includes the space where the evacuees will stay, how the evacuees will spend their time while staying there, and the number of evacuees. In other words, the load prediction unit 103 determines the operation method of the facility 5A, such as how many evacuees will stay in which space (area), and what time the evacuees will wake up and go to bed. This determines which area will be air-conditioned, and therefore it can be determined how many individual distributed type air conditioners 1b that make up the electric load equipment 1 will be operated, or how many central heat source type air conditioners 2a that make up the heat load equipment 2 will be operated. Furthermore, since the electric lights 1a operate in the space (area) where the evacuees stay from wake-up time to bedtime, it is possible to determine how many electric lights 1a to operate and for how many hours. In this way, the load prediction unit 103 determines the operation method of the electric load equipment 1 and the operation method of the heat load equipment 2.

[0071] Next, in step S02, the load predicting unit 103 calculates predicted values ​​of the future electric load and heat load until the "sustained energy target time" has elapsed, based on the operation method determined in step S01.

[0072] Next, in step S03, the equipment operation planning unit 104 calculates an operation plan for the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 so as to satisfy the predicted values ​​of the electric load and the heat load calculated in step S02.

[0073] Next, in step S04, the energy consumption calculation unit 105 calculates the energy consumption, i.e., the fuel consumption, based on the operation plans for the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment calculated in step S03. The energy consumption is calculated for each type of fuel.

[0074] Next, in step S05, the load control review unit 106 calculates the energy shortage based on the energy consumption calculated in step S04. The load control review unit 106 compares the remaining amount of energy with the energy consumption amount for each type of fuel to calculate the energy shortage.

[0075] Next, in step S06, the load control review unit 106 determines whether or not there is an energy shortage based on the amount of energy shortage calculated in step S05. If there is an energy shortage, the process proceeds to step S07, and if there is no energy shortage, the process proceeds to step S08.

[0076] In step S07, the load control review unit 106 changes the operation method of the electric load equipment 1, the operation method of the heat load equipment 2, and the operation method of the facility 5A in order to improve the heat-to-power ratio of the load so that the "energy sustaining target time" can be achieved. Then, the operation methods are updated to the changed ones, and the process returns to step S02 to repeat the process.

[0077] On the other hand, in step S08, the output unit 107 outputs the operation method of the electric load equipment 1, the operation method of the heat load equipment 2, and the operation method of the facility 5A at that time.

[0078] Although it has been described here that the operation methods output by the load prediction unit 103 and the load control review unit 106 are the operation method for the electric load facility 1, the operation method for the heat load facility 2, and the operation method for the facility 5A, this is not limiting. The operation methods output by the load prediction unit 103 and the load control review unit 106 may be at least one of the operation method for the electric load facility 1, the operation method for the heat load facility 2, and the operation method for the facility 5A. Similarly, the operation method output by the output unit 107 may also be at least one of the operation method for the electric load facility 1, the operation method for the heat load facility 2, and the operation method for the facility 5A.

[0079] As described above, in the first embodiment, the monitoring control device 11 controls the operation of the electric load equipment 1 and the heat load equipment 2 in accordance with the operation method output by the operation planning device 13. Alternatively, the monitoring control device 11 presents the operation method output by the operation planning device 13 to a facility manager, receives corrections from the facility manager as necessary, and then controls the operation of the electric load equipment 1 and the heat load equipment 2. In this case, the facility manager may input the corrections directly into the computer constituting the monitoring control device 11 using an interface, or may input them from the smartphone 17.

[0080] In the first embodiment, the monitoring and control device 11 generates an operation plan for the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment to improve the heat-to-power ratio of the load so as to achieve the energy sustainment target time, and controls the load. This provides a significant effect not seen in the past, such as being able to continue the energy supply for a desired period of time in the entire system that utilizes energy such as electricity and heat.

[0081] Furthermore, in the first embodiment, the monitoring control device 11 presents the operation method of the facility 5A output by the operation planning device 13 to the facility manager. Alternatively, the monitoring control device 11 displays or broadcasts it on a display device in the facility 5A. In this way, the facility manager and evacuees are notified and alerted that the operation method of the facility 5A has been decided or changed.

[0082] According to the first embodiment, the heat-to-power ratio is improved to achieve continuous operation for the "energy sustainment target time" during which autonomous operation is desired. At least one of the operation methods for the electrical load equipment 1, the thermal load equipment 2, and the facility 5A can be obtained with an improved heat-to-power ratio, thereby enabling the operation of the facility 5A to meet the need for continuous operation during a disaster.

[0083] Embodiment 2 The monitoring control device 11 and the operation planning device 13 according to the present disclosure can be applied not only to a single facility 5A but also to an entire area 50 including a plurality of facilities 5B and 5C.

[0084] Fig. 8 is a configuration diagram showing the configurations of monitoring control devices 11B and 11C provided in a cogeneration system 100 according to embodiment 2. In the example shown in Fig. 8, a plurality of facilities 5B and 5C belong to an area 50. In the example of Fig. 8, one facility 5B and three facilities 5C are installed in the area 50, but Fig. 8 is merely an example and is not limited to the example of Fig. 8.

[0085] Each of the facilities 5B and 5C is equipped with an electric load facility 1, a heat load facility 2, a power supply facility 3, and a heat source facility 4. In the example of FIG. 8 , a monitoring control device 11B including an operation planning device 13 and a memory unit 12 is installed in the facility 5B that oversees the entire region 50. The facility 5B is further equipped with a power supply facility 3, a heat source facility 4, a sensor 10, and a communication device 16. The configurations and operations of the operation planning device 13, the memory unit 12, the power supply facility 3, the heat source facility 4, the sensor 10, and the communication device 16 are the same as those in the first embodiment, and therefore will not be described here. However, in the second embodiment, the operation planning device 13 also determines the operation method of the electric load facility 1 and the heat load facility 2 installed in another facility, facility 5C, and the operation method of facility 5C. This is different from the first embodiment.

[0086] Each facility 5C has a different configuration from facility 5B. Because the configurations of these three facilities 5C are the same, some of the configurations are omitted from FIG. 8. Each facility 5C is equipped with a monitoring control device 11C, an access control system 18, electrical load equipment 1, thermal load equipment 2, sensors 10, and communication devices 16. The monitoring control device 11C collects information about each piece of equipment in its own facility 5C and provides the information to the monitoring control device 11B installed in facility 5B.

[0087] That is, the monitoring control device 11C installed in facility 5C does not have the operation planning device 13. Therefore, the operation planning device 13 of facility 5B determines the operation method of the electric load equipment 1 and the heat load equipment 2, and the operation method of facility 5C. The monitoring control device 11C installed in facility 5C operates the electric load equipment 1 and the heat load equipment 2, and the facility 5C in accordance with the operation method determined by the operation planning device 13 of facility 5B.

[0088] In the example of Figure 8, the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 are installed in the same facility 5B as the monitoring and control device 11B, but this is not important. What is important is that the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 are installed in a location where they can supply energy to the area 50 in the event of a disaster. Therefore, it is not necessary to particularly limit the installation locations of the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4, as long as the functions of the monitoring and control device 11B are provided so that the area 50 can be monitored and controlled in the event of a disaster. Also, for example, the monitoring and control device 11B may provide its functions on the cloud via the Internet 20.

[0089] FIG. 9 is a configuration diagram showing the configuration of the operation planning device 13 according to the second embodiment. As can be seen from a comparison between FIG. 6 and FIG. 9, in FIG. 9, among the functions of the operation planning device 13 shown in FIG. 6, the load control review unit 106 is located outside the region 50 via the Internet 20. That is, in the example of FIG. 9, the functions of the operation planning device 13 are divided into a first group 13a and a second group 13b. The first group 13a includes the load control review unit 106. The second group 13b includes a data acquisition unit 101, a remaining energy acquisition unit 102, a load prediction unit 103, an equipment operation plan unit 104, an energy consumption calculation unit 105, and an output unit 107. Furthermore, the first group 13a and the second group 13b each include a first communication unit 108a and a second communication unit 108b for communicating with each other. Therefore, communication between the first group 13a and the second group 13b is carried out via the first communication unit 108a and the second communication unit 108b.

[0090] 9, only the load control review unit 106 belongs to the first group 13a and is arranged outside the area 50, but this is not limited to this. That is, at least one of the data acquisition unit 101, the remaining energy acquisition unit 102, the load prediction unit 103, the equipment operation plan unit 104, the energy consumption calculation unit 105, and the output unit 107 may also belong to the first group 13a and be arranged outside the area 50.

[0091] In this way, the data acquiring unit 101, the remaining energy acquiring unit 102, the load predicting unit 103, the equipment operation planning unit 104, the energy consumption calculating unit 105, the load control examining unit 106, and the output unit 107 included in the operation planning device 13 may be divided into a first group 13a and a second group 13b in any combination. The number of groups may also be any number equal to or greater than two. That is, it is sufficient that at least one of the units 101 to 107 included in the operation planning device 13 belongs to the first group 13a, and at least one of the remaining units belongs to the second group 13b. The remaining units may further belong to a third group, a fourth group, and so on.

[0092] In the above-described first embodiment, the operation planning device 13 outputs the operation method of the electric load facility 1, the operation method of the heat load facility 2, and the operation method of the facility 5A (see step S08 in FIG. 7). In the second embodiment, the operation planning device 13 outputs the operation methods of the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50 instead of the operation method of the facility 5A.

[0093] FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing a flow when the operation planning device 13 according to the second embodiment outputs the operation method of the electrical load equipment 1, the operation method of the thermal load equipment 2, and the operation method of the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50.

[0094] As can be seen from a comparison between Fig. 7 and Fig. 10, steps S01A, S07A, and S08A are provided in Fig. 10 instead of steps S01, S07, and S08 in Fig. 7. The operations of the other steps are the same as those in Fig. 7, so they are denoted by the same reference numerals and their description will be omitted here.

[0095] In step S01A of Figure 10, the load prediction unit 103 uses the registered data 6 held by the monitoring control device 11 and the collected data 7 to 9 acquired by the data acquisition unit 101 to determine the operation method of the electrical load equipment 1, the operation method of the thermal load equipment 2, and the operation method of the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50.

[0096] 10, the load control review unit 106 changes the operation method of the electric load equipment 1, the operation method of the heat load equipment 2, and the operation method of the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50 so as to improve the heat-to-power ratio and achieve the "energy sustained target time." Then, the process returns to step S02 and repeats.

[0097] In step S08A of FIG. 10, the output unit 107 outputs at least one of the operation method of the electrical load equipment 1, the operation method of the thermal load equipment 2, and the operation method of the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50 at that time.

[0098] As described above, according to the second embodiment, an operation method can be obtained in which the heat-to-power ratio is improved to achieve continuous operation during the "energy sustainment target time" during which it is desired to continue the independent operation of energy supply in the region 50. Note that this operation method is not limited to the operation method of the region 50, and may be, for example, at least one of the operation method of the electrical load equipment 1, the operation method of the thermal load equipment 2, the operation method of the facilities 5B and 5C, or the region 50. This makes it possible to operate the facilities 5B and 5C, and the region 50, in a manner that satisfies the need for continuous operation during a disaster.

[0099] Embodiment 3 The operation methods shown in the above-mentioned first and second embodiments may be evaluated using a preset evaluation function to solve an optimization problem for minimizing the evaluation value. In the third embodiment, such a case will be described below. Here, an example will be described in which the third embodiment is applied to the configuration of the second embodiment shown in FIG.

[0100] An example of an evaluation function is an evaluation function that indexes the impact on facilities 5B and 5C or area 50 due to changes in the operation method of electrical load equipment 1, the operation method of thermal load equipment 2, and the operation method of facilities 5B and 5C or area 50. As a specific example, restricting the operation of air conditioners such as individual distributed air conditioner 1b and central heat source air conditioner 2a will worsen the indoor thermal environment. In summer, the indoor temperature and humidity will rise, making the environment more hot. In winter, the indoor temperature will drop, making the environment more cold. Such impact indices that indicate thermal comfort can be used as indices for the evaluation function. In this way, the impact indices are an index of the degree of impact.

[0101] The impact index may be not only thermal comfort but also the comfort of the lighting environment, the proportion of the time during which the equipment can be used out of the "target energy sustained time", or the measurement data 7 of the sensor 10.

[0102] Alternatively, if a contract has been concluded in which the manager of facility 5B or 5C pays a monetary penalty to the owner or user of facility 5B or 5C, the amount of the penalty payment may be used as an index of the evaluation function. For example, if the operation methods of electrical load equipment 1, thermal load equipment 2, and facilities 5B and 5C or area 50 are changed, some kind of impact will occur. At that time, suppose a contract has been concluded in which the manager of the facility pays a monetary penalty to the owner or user of the facility depending on the magnitude of the impact. In such a case, the amount of the penalty payment may be used as an index of the evaluation function.

[0103] FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing a flow when the operation planning device 13 according to the third embodiment outputs the operation method of the electrical load equipment 1, the operation method of the thermal load equipment 2, and the operation method of the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50.

[0104] 10 , in step S01A, the load prediction unit 103 provisionally determines an operation method for the electric load equipment 1, an operation method for the heat load equipment 2, and an operation method for the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50, using the registered data 6 held by the monitoring and control device 11 and the collected data 7 to 9 acquired by the data acquisition unit 101. At this time, as described above, the load prediction unit 103, for example, first determines an operation method for the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50, and then determines an operation method for the electric load equipment 1 and the heat load equipment 2.

[0105] Next, in step S10, the load control review unit 106 formulates an optimization problem to minimize the impact index based on the operation method determined in step S01 A. Alternatively, if the penalty payment amount is used in the evaluation function, the load control review unit 106 formulates an optimization problem to minimize the penalty payment amount instead of the impact index.

[0106] The optimization problem has a constraint that the amount of energy consumed must be less than or equal to the remaining amount of energy when the "energy sustainment target time" has elapsed, and the optimization result guarantees that continuous operation can be achieved for the "energy sustainment target time."

[0107] Next, in step S11, the load control review unit 106 solves the optimization problem formulated in step S10. There are countless ways to operate the electrical load equipment 1, the thermal load equipment 2, the facilities 5B and 5C, or the area 50, so that the amount of energy consumed is equal to or less than the remaining amount of energy when the "energy sustainment target time" has elapsed. However, the optimization problem formulated in step S10 determines a point at which the impact index is minimized, and the best operation method for the electrical load equipment 1, the thermal load equipment 2, the facilities 5B and 5C, or the area 50 is output.

[0108] According to the third embodiment, it is possible to obtain an optimal operation method from the viewpoint of the index given as the evaluation function among operation methods that improve the heat-to-power ratio and achieve continuous operation during the "energy sustainment target time" for which autonomous operation is desired. The operation method is at least one of the operation methods of the electrical load equipment 1, the operation method of the thermal load equipment 2, and the operation method of the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50. This makes it possible to operate the facilities 5B and 5C and the area 50 in a way that satisfies the need for continuous operation during a disaster.

[0109] Embodiment 4 It is also possible to calculate a plurality of energy supply target times having a time length shorter than the "energy sustain target time" described in the above embodiments 1 to 3, and output the respective optimal solutions. In embodiment 4, this case will be described below. Here, an example will be described in which embodiment 4 is applied to the configuration of embodiment 2 shown in FIG.

[0110] Fig. 12 is a flowchart showing a flow when the operation planning device 13 according to the fourth embodiment outputs an operation method for the electric load facility 1, an operation method for the heat load facility 2, and an operation method for the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50. Fig. 12 differs from Fig. 11 in that steps S13, S14, and S15 are added and step S16 is provided instead of step S08A.

[0111] Step S13 is provided between step S01A and step S10. Step S14 is provided between step S11 and step S16. Step S15 is a step to which the process proceeds if the determination in the processing of step S14 is "NO". Step S16 is a step to which the process proceeds if the determination in the processing of step S14 is "YES".

[0112] The operations of the other steps are the same as those in FIG. 11, so they are denoted by the same reference numerals and their explanations are omitted here.

[0113] In step S13 of FIG. 12, the load control review unit 106 sets a set of energy supply target times. When setting the set of energy supply target times, each energy supply target time is set to be the same as or shorter than the "sustained energy target time." For example, if the "sustained energy target time" is 72 hours, the energy supply target time can be set in 6-hour increments, such as 72 hours, 66 hours, 60 hours, ..., 6 hours. Note that the time increments of the energy supply target times do not need to be equal intervals, and any time interval, any number of points, or any time can be set.

[0114] In step S14, the load control review unit 106 determines whether or not the processes of steps S10 and S11 have been performed for all of the energy supply target times. If there is any remaining energy supply target time, the process proceeds to step S15; if not, the process proceeds to step S16.

[0115] In step S15, the load control review unit 106 sets the next energy supply target time, and the process returns to step S13 to solve the optimization problem again.

[0116] In step S16, the output unit 107 outputs a plurality of candidates for the operation method of the electric load facility 1, the operation method of the heat load facility 2, and the operation method of the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50.

[0117] FIG. 13 is a graph plotting impact indices resulting from optimization for multiple energy supply target times in the operation planning device 13 according to the fourth embodiment. In FIG. 13, the horizontal axis represents the energy supply target time, and the vertical axis represents the impact indices. In FIG. 13, the values ​​of the energy supply target time and the impact indices are plotted on a plane representing the relationship between the energy supply target time and the impact indices. Each plot corresponds to an energy supply target time, set as 72 hours, 66 hours, 60 hours, . . . , and 6 hours. Each plot is associated with an operation method for the electrical load equipment 1, an operation method for the thermal load equipment 2, and an operation method for the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50. It is assumed that, if each operation method is executed at each energy supply target time, the impact indices and the continuation of the energy supply target time at the point corresponding to the plot on the graph will be achieved. The operation planning device 13 may be configured to represent the optimization results in a graph as shown in FIG. 13 and present it to the facility manager so that the facility manager can select which operation method to execute. A method for the facility manager to select an operation method will be described with reference to FIG. 14.

[0118] FIG. 14 is a diagram comparing operation method A and operation method B, among the multiple operation methods shown in the graph of FIG. 13. In FIG. 14, the impact index for operation method A is Ea, and the energy supply duration is ta. On the other hand, the impact index for operation method B is Eb, and the energy supply duration is tb. Here, the magnitude relationship between the impact indexes Ea and Eb is Ea>Eb. Furthermore, the magnitude relationship between the energy supply durations ta and tb is ta>tb. As can be seen from this, operation method A allows for a longer energy supply duration, but has a larger impact index. On the other hand, operation method B shortens the energy supply duration, but in return, can reduce the impact index. Facility managers can determine how to set up equipment and facility operation methods by considering the trade-off between the impact index and the energy supply duration. During a disaster, impact indexes and other factors will vary, and the situation is likely to change from moment to moment. However, according to embodiment 4, even in such a situation, the facility manager can, with the assistance of the monitoring and control device 11, determine how to set the operation methods for the electrical load equipment 1, the thermal load equipment 2, the facilities 5B and 5C, or the area 50.

[0119] According to the fourth embodiment, the facility manager can select an operation method for improving the heat-to-power ratio while considering the trade-off between the impact index given as the evaluation function and the duration of energy supply. That is, the facility manager can select an operation method for the electric load equipment 1, an operation method for the heat load equipment 2, and an operation method for the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50 while taking into consideration the trade-off. This enables flexible changes in the operation of the facilities 5B and 5C according to the situation during a disaster.

[0120] Embodiment 5. The facilities to be managed by the monitoring and control device 11 shown in the first to fourth embodiments may further include power storage facilities, heat storage facilities, and renewable energy power generation facilities.

[0121] FIG. 15 is a diagram showing the connection relationship between the electric load equipment 1, the heat load equipment 2, the power supply equipment 3, the heat source equipment 4, the power storage equipment 14, and the heat storage equipment 15 in the combined heat and power supply system 100 according to the fifth embodiment.

[0122] As shown in FIG. 15, the power storage equipment 14 is connected between the power supply equipment 3 and the electrical load equipment 1. The power storage equipment 14 stores electrical energy and outputs it when needed. Under normal circumstances, the power storage equipment 14 stores electricity from an external power source (not shown) or electricity from the power supply equipment 3 in advance. The power storage equipment 14 also stores electricity that is generated after a disaster occurs but is not immediately used. The power storage equipment 14 is composed of, for example, a storage battery. In the event of a disaster, the power storage equipment 14 contributes to meeting the demand for electricity in the electrical load equipment 1 by discharging the stored electricity when needed.

[0123] As shown in Figure 15, the heat storage equipment 15 is connected between the heat source equipment 4 and the heat load equipment 2. The heat storage equipment 15 stores thermal energy and outputs it when needed. The heat storage equipment 15 stores heat in advance during normal times. The heat storage equipment 15 also stores waste heat that is generated after a disaster occurs and that is not immediately used. The heat storage equipment 15 is composed of, for example, a storage tank, a heat storage tank, and a hot water tap. In the event of a disaster, the heat storage equipment 15 releases the stored heat when needed, thereby contributing to meeting the heat demand of the heat load equipment 2.

[0124] In the fifth embodiment, the power supply facility 3 has a renewable energy power generation facility 32. However, the configuration and operation of the power supply facility 3 itself are the same as those of the power supply facility 3 shown in the first to fourth embodiments. The renewable energy power generation facility 32 generates power using renewable energy. Renewable energy includes, for example, solar power, wind power, hydroelectric power, and geothermal power. The renewable energy power generation facility 32 is composed of, for example, solar panels for generating solar power and wind turbines for generating wind power. The amount of power generated by the renewable energy power generation facility 32 fluctuates because it is affected by weather conditions.

[0125] FIG. 16 is a diagram showing an example in which the heat and power ratio is changed to reduce the amount of energy used and extend the target energy sustained time in the cogeneration system 100 according to the fifth embodiment.

[0126] As shown in the graph on the left side of Figure 16(a), before the improvement, there is a demand for electricity D1 and a demand for chilled water D2. As shown in the graph on the right side of Figure 16(a), the demand for electricity D1 is met by power generation using fuel from the power supply equipment 3, represented by G1, discharge from the power storage equipment 14, represented by BA, and power generation from the renewable energy power generation equipment 32, represented by RE. The demand for chilled water D2 is met by converting waste heat G2 from the power generation by the power supply equipment 3 into chilled water using a waste heat recovery absorption chiller or the like that makes up the heat source equipment 4. Of the waste heat from the power generation by the power supply equipment 3, waste heat G3 that is not used to generate chilled water is unnecessary and is therefore discarded.

[0127] In the event of a disaster, it is desirable to reduce fuel consumption as much as possible and therefore to supply as much power as possible from the renewable energy power generation facility 32. However, the amount of power generated by renewable energy fluctuates due to weather conditions and other factors, and there are cases where the amount of power generated suddenly drops sharply. In such a situation, if the fluctuations in the renewable energy are compensated for by discharging electricity from the power storage facility 14, the operation of the electrical load facility 1 and the like can be continued without causing a breakdown or power outage of the electrical load facility 1 and the like. For this reason, it is desirable to leave a residual amount of electricity in the power storage facility 14 so that power can be received when needed.

[0128] Therefore, as shown in Figure 16(b), the heat-to-power ratio is improved so that the demand for electricity D1 is reduced and the demand for chilled water D2 is increased compared to before the improvement. The reduction in the demand for electricity D1 is used to reduce the amount of discharge from the power storage facility 14. This allows the power storage facility 14 to have a remaining amount of electricity so that it can receive power when needed.

[0129] Furthermore, the increase in demand for chilled water D2 is satisfied by converting at least a portion of the waste heat G3 that was previously discarded into chilled water. In this way, as long as the increase in demand for chilled water D2 is within a range that can be covered by the waste heat G3 that was previously discarded, the fuel consumption of the power supply equipment 3 and the heat source equipment 4 will not increase.

[0130] In this way, in the fifth embodiment, the heat-to-power ratio is improved so as to effectively utilize the waste heat G3 that was previously wasted and to maintain, as much as possible, the remaining charge of the power storage facility 14. This makes it possible to provide a system that can maintain the remaining charge of the power storage facility 14, satisfy demand, and respond to sudden fluctuations in renewable energy.

[0131] According to this configuration of the fifth embodiment, an operation method for the electric load equipment 1, the heat load equipment 2, the facilities 5B and 5C, or the area 50 is implemented to improve the heat-to-power ratio, and the electric storage equipment 14 and the heat storage equipment 15 can be operated to maximize the use of renewable energy. Therefore, it becomes possible to change the operation of the facilities 5B and 5C or the area 50 to make effective use of renewable energy in the event of a disaster.

[0132] Embodiment 6 Fig. 17 is a configuration diagram showing the configuration of the operation planning device 13 according to embodiment 6. As can be seen from a comparison between Fig. 6 and Fig. 17, in Fig. 17, among the functions of the operation planning device 13 shown in Fig. 6, the load control review unit 106 is arranged in the cloud server 60.

[0133] 17, similarly to the second embodiment, the functions of the operation planning device 13 are divided into a first group 13a and a second group 13b. The first group 13a includes a load control review unit 106. The second group 13b includes a data acquisition unit 101, a remaining energy acquisition unit 102, a load prediction unit 103, an equipment operation planner 104, an energy consumption calculation unit 105, and an output unit 107. The first group 13a and the second group 13b each include a first communication unit 108a and a second communication unit 108b for communication with each other. Therefore, communication between the first group 13a and the second group 13b is performed via the first communication unit 108a and the second communication unit 108b.

[0134] 17, only the load control review unit 106 belongs to the first group 13a and is arranged in the cloud server 60, but this is not limiting. That is, at least one of the data acquisition unit 101, the remaining energy acquisition unit 102, the load prediction unit 103, the equipment operation planner 104, the energy consumption calculation unit 105, and the output unit 107 may belong to the first group 13a together with the load control review unit 106 and be arranged in the cloud server 60. Also, the second group 13b is arranged in a server (not shown) installed in the area 50. The server may be arranged in the facility 5B or the facility 5C shown in FIG. 8. Alternatively, the server may be arranged outside the area 50. In either case, the server, the cloud server 60, and the smartphone 17 are connected via the Internet 20.

[0135] In this way, the data acquiring unit 101, the remaining energy acquiring unit 102, the load predicting unit 103, the equipment operation planning unit 104, the energy consumption calculating unit 105, the load control examining unit 106, and the output unit 107 included in the operation planning device 13 may be divided into a first group 13a and a second group 13b in any combination. The number of groups may also be any number equal to or greater than two. That is, it is sufficient that at least one of these units 101 to 107 belongs to the first group 13a, and at least one of the remaining units belongs to the second group 13b. The remaining units may further belong to a third group, a fourth group, and so on. [Explanation of symbols]

[0136] 1 Electric load equipment, 1a Lighting, 1b Individual distributed air conditioner, 2 Heat load equipment, 2a Central heat source air conditioner, 2b Water heater, 3 Power supply equipment, 4 Heat source equipment, 4A Heat source equipment, 5A Facility, 5B Facility, 5C Facility, 6 Registered data, 7 Measurement data, 8 External data, 9 Input data, 10 Sensor, 11 Monitoring control device, 11B Monitoring control device, 11C Monitoring control device, 11X Monitoring control device, 12 Memory unit, 13 Operation planning device, 13a First group, 13b Second group, 14 Power storage equipment, 15 Heat storage equipment, 16 Communication equipment, 17 Smartphone, 18 Access control system, 20 Internet, 21 Content, 30 Power and heat source equipment, 32 Renewable energy power generation equipment, 50 Region, 60 Cloud server, 100 Combined heat and power supply system, 101 Data acquisition unit, 102 remaining energy acquisition unit, 103 load prediction unit, 104 equipment operation planning unit, 105 energy consumption calculation unit, 106 load control consideration unit, 107 output unit, 108a first communication unit, 108b second communication unit.

Claims

1. An operation planning device that generates operation plans for power supply equipment and heat source equipment that operate electric load equipment and heat load equipment installed in a facility or area, a data acquisition unit that acquires at least one of pre-registered registration data related to the facility or the area, input data input from outside, measurement data measured by a sensor installed in the facility or the area, and external data obtained through communication with the outside; a remaining energy amount acquiring unit that acquires the remaining amount of energy that can be used by the facility or the area until an energy continuation target time indicating a desired time for which the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment are to continue operating has elapsed; a load prediction unit that provisionally determines an operation method for the electric load equipment, an operation method for the heat load equipment, and an operation method for the facility or the area based on the data acquired by the data acquisition unit, and predicts the loads of the electric load equipment and the heat load equipment until the energy sustainment target time has elapsed based on the operation methods; an equipment operation planning unit that generates operation plans for the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment that can be achieved with the remaining amount of usable energy acquired by the remaining energy acquisition unit, based on the load of the electric load equipment and the load of the heat load equipment predicted by the load prediction unit; An operation planning device comprising:

2. an energy consumption calculation unit that calculates the amount of energy consumed by the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment until the energy sustainment target time has elapsed, based on the operation plan generated by the equipment operation planning unit; a load control review unit that changes a ratio of electricity and heat consumed by the electric load equipment and the heat load equipment so as to reduce the amount of energy consumption calculated by the energy consumption calculation unit, and updates at least one of an operation method of the electric load equipment, an operation method of the heat load equipment, and an operation method of the facility or the area based on the ratio; The operation planning device according to claim 1 , comprising:

3. an output unit that outputs at least one of an operation method of the electric load equipment, an operation method of the heat load equipment, and an operation method of the facility or the area, which are output by the load prediction unit or the load control examination unit; The operation planning device according to claim 2 , comprising:

4. the operation planning device generates an operation plan for the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment to operate the electric load equipment and the heat load equipment installed in the facility or the area for a predetermined energy sustainment target time in the event of a disaster in which external energy supply to the facility or the area is limited; The operation planning device according to claim 1 or 2.

5. The load control review unit using a preset evaluation function, evaluating at least one of an operation method of the electric load equipment, an operation method of the heat load equipment, and an operation method of the facility or the area; The operation planning device according to claim 2 .

6. The load control review unit Formulating an optimization problem to minimize an index of evaluation of the evaluation function under a constraint that the amount of energy consumption calculated by the energy consumption calculation unit is equal to or less than the remaining amount of energy acquired by the remaining energy acquisition unit until the energy sustainment target time has elapsed; outputting at least one of an operation method for the electric load equipment, an operation method for the heat load equipment, and an operation method for the facility or the area, which is determined according to the value of the index; The operation planning device according to claim 5 .

7. The evaluation index of the evaluation function is: an impact index that indexes the degree of impact caused by updating at least one of the operation method of the electric load equipment, the operation method of the heat load equipment, and the operation method of the facility or the area; The operation planning device according to claim 5 or 6.

8. When an update to at least one of the operation method of the electric load equipment, the operation method of the heat load equipment, and the operation method of the facility or the area affects at least one user of the electric load equipment, the heat load equipment, the facility, or the area, the facility manager has a contract to pay a monetary penalty to the user depending on the level of the impact. The evaluation index of the evaluation function is the amount of the monetary penalty payment. The operation planning device according to claim 5 or 6.

9. setting a plurality of energy supply target times each having a time length shorter than the energy sustain target time; The load control review unit The energy supply target time is on one axis and the impact index is on the other axis, plotting values ​​of the energy supply target time and the impact index corresponding to at least one of an operation method of the electric load equipment, an operation method of the heat load equipment, and an operation method of the facility or the area on a plane representing the relationship between the energy supply target time and the impact index; Plotting at least two of them on the plane; The operation planning device according to claim 7 .

10. setting a plurality of energy supply target times each having a time length shorter than the energy sustain target time; The load control review unit The energy supply target time is on one axis and the monetary penalty payment amount is on the other axis, plotting values ​​of the energy supply target time and the monetary penalty payment amount corresponding to at least one of the operation method of the electric load equipment, the operation method of the heat load equipment, and the operation method of the facility or the area on a plane representing the relationship between the energy supply target time and the monetary penalty payment amount; Plotting at least two of them on the plane; The operation planning device according to claim 8 .

11. The power supply facility and the heat source facility are integrated into a power supply and heat source facility that supplies electricity and heat. The operation planning device according to claim 1 or 2.

12. The facility or the area is a power storage facility that is provided between the power supply facility and the electrical load facility and has a function of storing and discharging electrical energy; a heat storage facility provided between the heat source facility and the heat load facility and having a function of storing and releasing thermal energy; It has at least one of the following: The operation planning device according to claim 1 or 2.

13. The registration data is Architectural design data including the number of buildings of the facility, the total floor area of ​​the facility, the total floor area by use of the facility, the geographical location of the facility, the dimensions and structure of building materials of the walls of the facility, and the dimensions and structure of openings of the facility; Equipment design data including equipment specification data including the number, capability, capacity, efficiency, operation constraints, operation change rate constraints, and connection relationships between each piece of equipment installed in the facility; and The input data is Data acquired by portable cameras, portable sensors, and recording devices, data confirmed visually, survey result data collected via portable devices, and data resulting from human judgment. and The measurement data is data on physical quantities including the temperature, humidity, illuminance, flow rate, pressure, power, and amount of power of the facility; data on the operational status of each piece of equipment installed in the facility including start / stop, operation mode, and abnormality; and data on people flow including the number of people or personal data entering and leaving the facility, each room in the facility, and the area; and The external data is Weather observation values, weather forecast values, disaster information, information on disaster response activities, information on the restoration of electricity and fuel infrastructure, information on social network services, and information sent and received from linked monitoring and control devices in remote locations, all of which are distributed via the Internet. at least one of: The operation planning device according to claim 1 or 2.

14. A cogeneration system that generates an operation plan for power supply equipment and heat source equipment that operate electric load equipment and heat load equipment installed in a facility or area, a data acquisition unit that acquires at least one of pre-registered registration data related to the facility or the area, input data input from outside, measurement data measured by a sensor installed in the facility or the area, and external data obtained through communication with the outside; a remaining energy amount acquiring unit that acquires the remaining amount of energy that can be used by the facility or the area until an energy continuation target time indicating a desired time for which the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment are to continue operating has elapsed; a load prediction unit that provisionally determines an operation method for the electric load equipment, an operation method for the heat load equipment, and an operation method for the facility or the area based on the data acquired by the data acquisition unit, and predicts the loads of the electric load equipment and the heat load equipment until the energy sustainment target time has elapsed based on the operation methods; an equipment operation planning unit that generates operation plans for the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment that can be achieved with the remaining amount of usable energy acquired by the remaining energy acquisition unit, based on the load of the electric load equipment and the load of the heat load equipment predicted by the load prediction unit; an energy consumption calculation unit that calculates the amount of energy consumed by the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment until the energy sustainment target time has elapsed, based on the operation plan generated by the equipment operation planning unit; a load control review unit that changes a ratio of electricity and heat consumed by the electric load equipment and the heat load equipment so as to reduce the energy consumption calculated by the energy consumption calculation unit, and updates at least one of an operation method of the electric load equipment, an operation method of the heat load equipment, and an operation method of the facility or the area based on the ratio; an output unit that outputs at least one of the operation method of the electric load equipment, the operation method of the heat load equipment, and the operation method of the facility or the area, which are updated by the load control review unit; Equipped with a first group including at least one of the data acquisition unit, the remaining energy acquisition unit, the load prediction unit, the equipment operation planning unit, the energy consumption calculation unit, the load control examination unit, and the output unit; a second group having at least one other; Equipped with the first group is located outside the facility or the area; Combined heat and power system.

15. An operation planning method using a processing circuit that generates operation plans for power supply equipment and heat source equipment that operate electric load equipment and heat load equipment installed in a facility or area, comprising: acquiring at least one of pre-registered registration data relating to the facility or the area, input data input from outside, measurement data measured by a sensor installed in the facility or the area, and external data obtained through communication with the outside; acquiring the remaining amount of energy that can be used by the facility or the area until an energy continuation target time, which indicates the time for which the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment are desired to continue operating, has elapsed; Based on the acquired data, a method for operating the electric load equipment, a method for operating the heat load equipment, and a method for operating the facility or the area are tentatively determined, and based on the operation methods, a load on the electric load equipment and a load on the heat load equipment are predicted until the energy sustainment target time has elapsed; generating an operation plan for the power supply facility and the heat source facility based on the predicted load of the electric load facility and the predicted load of the heat load facility; calculating, based on the generated operation plan, the amount of energy consumed by the power supply equipment and the heat source equipment until the energy sustainment target time has elapsed; changing a ratio of electricity and heat consumed by the electric load equipment and the heat load equipment so as to reduce the calculated amount of energy consumption, and updating at least one of an operation method of the electric load equipment, an operation method of the heat load equipment, and an operation method of the facility or the area based on the ratio; outputting at least one of the updated operation methods of the electric load equipment, the heat load equipment, and the facility or area; Operation planning method.

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