Power plan creation system

Abstract

The present invention reduces labor for creating a power plan by a user and improves profitability by a power plan creation system for automating creation and modification of a power generation plan, a power sales plan, and other plans on the basis of a preset condition according to change in circumstances such as change in weather, influence of current event information, fluctuation in imbalance charges, and power plant outages.　A power operation system according to the present invention comprises: a type selection unit that selects one of a plurality of power generation output prediction types; a plan creation unit that creates a power generation plan and / or power sales plan on the basis of a power generation output prediction value corresponding to the selected power generation output prediction type; a determination control unit that determines whether the power generation plan and / or power sales plan satisfies a predetermined condition, and outputs change instruction information for manually or automatically changing the created power generation plan and / or power sales plan if the power generation plan and / or power sales plan is determined to satisfy the predetermined condition; and a plan change unit that receives the change instruction information and changes the power generation plan and / or power sales plan.

Description

Power planning system

[0001] The present invention relates to a power plan creation system.

[0002] Conventionally, attempts have been made to buy and sell electricity in accordance with fluctuations in the amount of electricity generated by solar power generation, wind power generation, and other power generation methods that are easily affected by weather conditions.

[0003] Patent Document 1 describes an electricity management system that creates a power generation plan based on electricity demand forecast data created from individual electricity demand information on the electricity demand side and weather information, and a bidding plan based on the power generation plan and an expected exchange price assumed for bidding conditions and settlement prices at the electricity exchange.

[0004] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2019-303411

[0005] Under the Electricity Business Act and the Wheeling Service Provisions, each power generation company or power generation contractor (a party entrusted with power operation by a power generation company) must submit a next-day plan (power generation sales plan and demand procurement plan) prepared for 48 30-minute time slots to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators of Japan (OCCTO) by noon the day before the power supply date, placing a significant burden on the company. Furthermore, plans must be submitted on a daily, weekly, monthly, and annual basis. Even after submission, plans must be revised to respond to constantly changing information related to power supply and demand (e.g., weather changes, fluctuations in imbalance charges, and power plant shutdowns). Furthermore, when bidding for buying and selling electricity on the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX), the supply-demand balancing market, or the capacity market, selecting the optimal bidding market for each 30-minute time slot, as well as determining bidding conditions, bidding timing, bid volume, and bidding method, places a significant burden on the company. The invention described in Patent Document 1 creates a power generation plan and a bidding plan, but does not automate the creation and modification of the power generation plan and the bidding plan.

[0006] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above circumstances, and provides an electricity planning system (hereinafter referred to as the present planning system) that can automate the creation and modification of power generation plans, electricity sales plans, and other plans based on pre-set conditions in response to changes in circumstances such as changes in weather, the impact of current information, fluctuations in imbalance charges, and the shutdown of power generation facilities.

[0007] In order to achieve the above object, according to one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a power plan creation system having: a type selection unit that selects one of a plurality of power generation prediction types; a plan creation unit that creates a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on a power generation prediction value corresponding to the selected power generation prediction type; a determination control unit that determines whether the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan satisfy predetermined conditions, and when it is determined that the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan satisfy the predetermined requirements, outputs change instruction information for manually or automatically changing the created power generation plan and / or the power sales plan; and a plan change unit that receives the change instruction information and changes the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan.

[0008] According to the present invention, by successively updating the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan based on the latest information on power supply and demand, it is possible to maximize the profits of the power generation company or power generation contractor and minimize the risk of imbalances occurring.

[0009] According to one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a power plan creation system in which the power generation prediction type includes a value calculated based on an upper limit value of the power generation prediction value, a lower limit value of the power generation prediction value, and / or an average value of the power generation prediction value, or a value calculated based on past actual power generation values.

[0010] According to the present invention, multiple options are provided for the predicted power generation amount values ​​used in the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan, and the plan can be created using the predicted value that is most suitable for the user's business policy.

[0011] According to one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided an electricity planning system in which the predetermined conditions include one or more selected from the following i) to iv): i) the fluctuation range of the predicted power generation amount calculated or obtained after the creation of the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan, relative to the predicted power generation amount calculated or obtained when the power generation plan or the power sales plan was created, exceeds a predetermined threshold; ii) a change in the operating status of power generation facilities that occurred after the creation of the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan corresponds to the predetermined change; iii) a change in information on the wide-area reserve margin corresponds to the predetermined change; iv) the fluctuation range of the electricity buying and selling price in the market, relative to the predicted power buying and selling price in the market calculated or obtained when the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan was created, exceeds a predetermined threshold.

[0012] According to the present invention, when an event occurs that may have a significant impact on a user's revenue, the user's losses can be prevented by changing the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan.

[0013] According to one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a power planning system which further includes an acquisition unit which acquires information including a power generation prediction value corresponding to a selected power generation prediction type, and a plan creation unit which creates a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on the power generation prediction value acquired by the acquisition unit.

[0014] According to the present invention, it is possible to create a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan using predicted power generation amounts acquired from an organization outside the power planning system of the present invention.

[0015] According to one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided an electricity planning system which further includes a first power generation prediction unit which calculates a power generation prediction value using a trained model which uses past power generation prediction values ​​and actual data as training data, and a plan creation unit which creates a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on the power generation prediction value calculated by the first power generation prediction unit.

[0016] According to the present invention, by using a trained model that uses data on past actual power generation amounts as training data, it is possible to create a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on more accurate predicted power generation amounts.

[0017] According to one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided an electricity planning system comprising: an acquisition unit that periodically acquires information including weather forecast data and actual power generation values ​​at a power generation facility; a storage device that stores information including the actual power generation values, power generation capacity, and installation location of the power generation facility; and a second power generation prediction unit that calculates a predicted power generation value based on at least the latest weather forecast data and information including the actual power generation value, power generation capacity, and installation location of the power generation facility, wherein the plan creation unit creates a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on the predicted power generation value calculated by the second power generation prediction unit.

[0018] According to the present invention, it is possible to create a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on an accurate predicted value of power generation amount even for a power generation facility that uses renewable energy such as solar power generation or wind power generation.

[0019] According to one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided an electricity planning system in which a plan creation unit creates a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on information including a predicted power generation amount, a predicted future power purchase and sale price in the electricity trading market, and a predicted future imbalance charge.

[0020] According to the present invention, it is possible to create an electricity sales plan that responds to fluctuations in electricity buying and selling prices and improves the user's profits.

[0021] According to one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided an electricity planning system having: an electricity purchase / sales price predicted value acquisition unit that acquires predicted values ​​of future electricity purchase / sales prices; and an imbalance fee predicted value acquisition unit that acquires predicted values ​​of future imbalance fees, wherein a plan creation unit creates a power generation plan and / or an electricity sales plan based on information including the predicted power generation amount, the acquired predicted values ​​of electricity purchase / sales prices, and the acquired predicted values ​​of imbalance fees.

[0022] According to the present invention, by acquiring and using the predicted future power generation amount, predicted power purchase and sale price, and acquired predicted imbalance charge, it is possible to create a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan that improves the user's profits.

[0023] According to one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided an electricity planning system including: an electricity buying and selling price prediction unit that calculates an electricity buying and selling price prediction value; and an imbalance fee prediction unit that calculates an imbalance fee prediction value, wherein a plan creation unit creates a power generation plan or an electricity sales plan based on the power generation amount prediction value, the calculated electricity buying and selling price prediction value, and the calculated imbalance fee prediction value.

[0024] According to the present invention, by calculating and using the future power generation forecast value, the power purchase and sale price forecast value, and the acquired imbalance charge forecast value within the system, it is possible to create a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan that improves the user's profits.

[0025] According to one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided an electric power planning system in which the plan change unit acquires information on the latest power generation plan and / or power sales plan created by the plan creation unit.

[0026] According to the present invention, even after a plan has been created, it is possible to automatically create a new plan based on the latest information and update the plan.

[0027] According to one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided an electric power planning system having, instead of the plan change unit, a change input unit that accepts input of changes to the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan.

[0028] According to the present invention, it is possible to manually change plans, and it is possible to respond to changes in circumstances that may have a significant impact on the user's profits, thereby reducing losses.

[0029] According to one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided an electric power planning system in which the plan change unit and the change input unit are prohibited from changing the plan after the gate close time.

[0030] According to the present invention, by not accepting input after the gate is closed, when changes to the plan are no longer possible, it is possible to prevent the user from performing erroneous plan review work.

[0031] According to one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a power planning system in which a plan creation unit creates a power generation plan based on plan creation and submission rules that are set in advance for each target power generation facility.

[0032] According to the present invention, it is possible to create a power generation plan that is suited to the circumstances of each individual user.

[0033] According to one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided an electricity planning system having a display data creation means for creating display data based on a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan, wherein the display data displays the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan in sections for each preset date and time, displays whether the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan can be changed based on at least the gate close time, and displays whether the plan change unit or the change input unit is enabled for the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan that are displayed in sections.

[0034] According to the present invention, the layout of the display screen on the user terminal can be improved to improve the convenience of user operations.

[0035] According to the power plan creation system of the present invention, by successively updating the power generation and sales plan based on the latest information related to power supply and demand, it is possible to maximize the profits of users such as aggregators and minimize the risk of imbalances, as well as significantly reduce the administrative burden of updating. Furthermore, by dividing and displaying the updatable power generation and sales plan by time unit based on preset plan submission rules, the convenience of system operation for users is improved.

[0036] 1 is a diagram showing an embodiment of a system configuration in the power planning system of the present invention. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an embodiment of a hardware configuration in the power planning system of the present invention. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing an embodiment of a functional configuration of a management server and an embodiment of information exchange with an external organization. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of a database (DB) configuration in a storage device in the power planning system of the present invention. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of a data table of power generation facilities in the power planning system of the present invention. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of a data table of power generation facilities in the power planning system of the present invention. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of a data table of power generation facilities in the power planning system of the present invention. FIG. 6 is a graph of predicted power generation amount values ​​for each selectable risk tolerance in the power planning system of the present invention. FIG. 7 is a block diagram showing an embodiment of the functional configuration of a plan creation unit in the power planning system of the present invention. FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of a data table of BG in the power planning system of the present invention. FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of a data table of BG in the power planning system of the present invention. FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a data table of BG in the power planning system of the present invention. FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of a data table of BG in the power planning system of the present invention. FIG. 12 is a diagram showing an example of a data table of BG in the power planning system of the present invention. FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a data table of an electricity sales plan in the electricity plan creation system of the present invention. FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing an embodiment of the operation of a determination control unit in the electricity plan creation system of the present invention. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing an embodiment of the operation of a determination control unit in the electricity plan creation system of the present invention. FIG. 4 is an example of a user initial setting screen for a power generation plan in the electricity plan creation system of the present invention. FIG. 5 is an example of a display screen for a power generation plan on a user terminal in the electricity plan creation system of the present invention. FIG. 6 is an example of a display screen for a power generation plan on a user terminal in the electricity plan creation system of the present invention.1 is an example of a display screen of a power generation plan on a user terminal in the power plan creation system of the present invention. FIG. 2 is an example of a display screen of a power generation plan on a user terminal in the power plan creation system of the present invention. FIG. 3 is an example of a display screen of a power generation plan on a user terminal in the power plan creation system of the present invention. FIG. 4 is an example of a display screen of a power generation plan on a user terminal in the power plan creation system of the present invention. FIG. 5 is an example of a user initial setting screen for a power sales plan in the power plan creation system of the present invention. FIG. 6 is an example of a display screen of a user's power sales plan in the power plan creation system of the present invention. FIG. 7 is an example of a display screen of a user's power sales plan in the power plan creation system of the present invention. FIG. 8 is an example of a display screen of a user's plan creation schedule in the power plan creation system of the present invention. FIG. 9 is a graph showing trends in predicted and actual power price values ​​on a fictitious day. FIG. 10 is a graph showing trends in predicted and actual power price values ​​on a fictitious day.

[0037] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. The embodiment described below is merely an example, and the present invention is not to be construed as being limited to these embodiments.

[0038] In this specification, the entity that uses this planning system is called a "user." Users are power generation companies, power generation contractors, or aggregators, as well as third parties (hereinafter referred to as "power generation contractors, etc.") to whom they have entrusted part or all of the planning process, and include those who actually operate this planning system under the instructions of power generation contractors, etc. There may be multiple users. The administrator of this planning system is not included in the term "user."

[0039] In this specification, the plan creation system includes, but is not limited to, a system for creating a power generation and sales plan (hereinafter referred to as a power generation and sales plan) to be submitted to OCCTO. For example, it includes systems for creating power generation plans, sales plans, battery operation plans, etc., created for internal review by power generation companies, power generation contractors, aggregators, etc., and also includes systems for notifying retail electricity companies, etc. of such plans. Power generation and sales plans are created on a daily, weekly, monthly, or annual basis, etc., and within a daily unit, a plan for the next day submitted by noon (12:00) the day before is called a "next day plan," while a plan for the current day is called a "current day plan." A current day plan is submitted when there is a change in the next day plan. Hereinafter, in this specification, a power generation plan and / or power sales plan, not limited to a power generation and sales plan submitted to OCCTO, is referred to as a "power generation plan and / or power sales plan." Furthermore, when there is no need to distinguish between a power generation and sales plan and a power generation plan and / or power sales plan, they may simply be referred to as a "plan."

[0040] [1. Overall Configuration] Figure 1 shows one embodiment of the overall configuration of the present planning system. The planning system of Figure 1 includes a management server 1 managed by a system administrator, a user server 2 used by users of the planning system, and an external organization server 3, all interconnected via a network NW for mutual communication. The network NW may take any form, including Bluetooth (registered trademark), Wi-Fi, a local area network (LAN), or the Internet. The user server 2 is connected to user terminals such as smartphones, tablet computers, and desktop computers. Users connect to the network NW and communicate with other devices by operating their user terminals. The external organization server 3 is a server other than the management server 1 and the user server 2 that exchanges information with the present planning system S. It includes servers owned by OCCTO and JPEX, as well as servers managing power generation facilities.

[0041] [1.1 Hardware Configuration of the Present Planning System] Next, the hardware configuration of the present planning system will be described. Fig. 2 shows the hardware configuration of one embodiment of the present planning system. As shown in Fig. 2, the present planning system includes a control unit 210, an input device 220, a storage device 230, a display device 240, a communication device 250, and an output device 260, which are connected via a system bus 270.

[0042] In FIG. 2 , the control unit 210 is a processor such as a CPU, which executes a program describing the processes of the planning system. The input device 220 is composed of, for example, a keyboard and a mouse, and is used by an administrator of the planning system to input various information. The storage device 230 includes various types of memory, such as RAM (Random Access Memory) and ROM (Read Only Memory), as well as storage devices such as a hard disk and an SSD, and stores application programs to be executed by the control unit 210, necessary data obtained during processing by the control unit 210, information obtained from external organizations, etc. The storage device 230 may also be used as a temporary storage area during program execution. The display device 240 is composed of a display, LCD (Liquid Crystal Display Panel), etc., and displays various screens to the administrator. The communication device 250 is a receiver and transmitter that performs communication processing with users and external organizations via a network NW. The output device 260 is, for example, a printer. Note that FIG. 2 is an example, and the hardware configuration of the planning system is not limited to the example of FIG.

[0043] An example of the operation of the present planning system until an application program for executing the functions of the present planning system is ready to run will be described. For example, the application program for executing the functions of the present planning system is downloaded from a CD-ROM or DVD-ROM inserted in a CD (Compact Disc)-ROM drive or DVD (Digital Versatile Disc)-ROM drive (not shown), or downloaded via a transmission medium such as the Internet via the communication device 250, stored in the storage device 230, and then installed. To execute the application program, the program stored in the storage device 230 is launched. In this state, the control unit 210 executes the functions of the present planning system in accordance with the application program launched from the storage device 230. Furthermore, the application program for executing the functions of the present planning system does not necessarily need to be stored in the storage device 230 within the management server 1. For example, the application program may be stored in a server other than the management server and executed by accessing it via a network from the management server 3 or the user server 2. When the functions of the planning system are executed via a network, the system may be configured to require the user to input a user ID and password.

[0044] The functions of the present planning system will now be described. Fig. 3 is a schematic diagram showing the functional configuration of one embodiment of the present planning system and the relationship between information exchange with external organizations.

[0045] [1.2 Exchange of information with external organizations, etc.] In order to create a power generation and sales plan, the plan creation system communicates data with external organizations, including power generation companies, power generation contractors, aggregators, JPEX, electricity retailers, information providers, and OCCTO, as well as users of the plan creation system, via a network NW. Data communication is performed by a communication device 250.

[0046] [1.2.1 Information Exchange with Power Generation Facilities, etc.] The planning system acquires information related to the amount of power generated by each time period, whether or not output is being suppressed, whether or not equipment is malfunctioning, and operation status from power generation facilities owned by power generation companies and power generation business groups. Here, a power generation company in this specification refers to a business that owns power generation facilities such as solar power generation, wind power generation, hydroelectric power generation, geothermal power generation, and biomass power generation and conducts power generation business. A power generation business group is a group of power generation companies (balancing group) that settles imbalances in electricity transactions. If the power generation facility has a storage battery, information related to the amount of electricity charged in the storage battery and operation status is also acquired. Information from the power generation facility is acquired by the acquisition unit 2104 (described later) from the external organization server 3 that manages the power generation facility. The information acquired by the planning system from the power generation facility is temporarily stored by the acquisition unit 2104 in the power generation facility information DB 402 (described later) and is used when creating a power generation plan, etc.

[0047] The power generation equipment and the storage battery may be installed on the premises of a specific customer based on, for example, a PPA (Power Purchase Agreement). In such a case, the planning system can acquire, based on time-series information detected by a sensor installed in the power generation equipment, information related to power generation such as the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, power generation time, and power generation efficiency, information related to the temperature state of the storage battery including the temperature of each cell, SOC (State of Charge), number of elapsed cycles, degree of deterioration, and SOH (State of Health) related to the state of the storage battery.

[0048] [1.2.2 Exchange of information with power generation contractors, etc.] Power generation and sales plans are submitted to OCCTO by power generation contractors, etc.

[0049] Power generation contractors, etc. must submit to OCCTO a power generation and sales plan (next day plan) created for every 48 30-minute slots by noon (12:00) the day before the power supply and demand day. In addition, after submitting the next day plan, in order to respond to changes in information related to power supply and demand, the submitted plan may be amended and a new plan (today's plan) may be submitted by gate close time (one hour before actual power supply and demand). Power generation contractors, etc. use their own user terminals to operate this plan creation system using data communication via the network NW to create plans. Note that the timing of plan creation and the number of slots per day are examples and are not limited to these.

[0050] [1.2.3 Exchange of information with electricity trading partners] The plan creation system exchanges information with electricity trading partners. Electricity trading partners include JPEX, the supply and demand adjustment market, the capacity market, retail electricity suppliers that supply electricity based on bilateral contracts, and general electricity transmission and distribution companies involved in imbalance settlement. Exchange of trading price information in each market, information related to electricity trading with retail electricity suppliers, and other information with electricity trading partners is carried out using the communication device 250 through data communication via the network NW with each external institution server 3 that manages the electricity trading partners. In particular, information related to the electricity trading prices exchanged with electricity trading partners is acquired by an acquisition unit 2104 (described later) and stored in an electricity price information DB 405 (described later).

[0051] [1.2.4 Exchange of information with information senders] This plan creation system acquires information necessary for creating a power generation plan and / or an electricity sales plan from external information senders. The information acquired from these information senders includes, but is not limited to, weather forecast information acquired from weather companies, power generation facility information regarding accidents and shutdowns at power generation facilities, power usage restrictions and planned power outages, and calculation indices used to calculate correction charges, current information regarding accidents and the economy such as increases in oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices and the outbreak of war, electricity market information regarding imbalance charge unit prices, imbalance amounts, trading prices in the spot market and the hourly market, and wide-area reserve margin information published by OCCTO, as long as it can affect the power generation plan and / or the electricity sales plan. This planning system acquires information from these information senders using data communication via the network NW via the acquisition unit 2104, and stores information related to power generation facilities in the power generation facility information DB 402 described below, information related to electricity prices and imbalance charges in the electricity price information DB 405, and other current affairs information in the current affairs information DB 403.

[0052] [1.2.5 Submission of Plan to OCCTO] Power generation contractors and the like submit power generation and sales plans to OCCTO. To do this, users submit power generation and sales plans and exchange other information via data communication over the network NW between the management server 1 of this plan creation system and the external organization server 3 owned by OCCTO. The power generation and sales plan is submitted by the plan control unit 2114 (described later) using data communication over the network NW.

[0053] 2. Structure of the Management Server A series of processes involved in creating a plan by this planning system is realized by executing application programs corresponding to each function in the control unit 210 based on data stored in multiple databases (DBs) in the storage device 230.

[0054] 4 is a diagram showing the functions of the DBs included in the storage device 230. The storage device 230 is provided with a weather information DB 401, a power generation facility information DB 402, a current events information DB 403, a power system information DB 404, a power price information DB 405, a user information DB 406, a buying and selling transaction information DB 407, and a plan history DB 408.

[0055] The weather information DB 401 stores weather forecast data and past weather data (hereinafter referred to as weather information) obtained from, for example, weather information disclosure organizations. The weather information obtained is the latest weather forecast data predicted at least up to the bidding deadline for electricity trading, and the weather information DB 401 stores weather forecasts and actual weather data for specific regions and specific time periods. Types of weather information include weather, temperature, humidity, cloud cover, wind direction, wind speed, solar radiation, rainfall, etc. for specific regions and time periods. The weather information is obtained by the acquisition unit 2104 via the network NW and stored in the weather information DB 401.

[0056] The power generation facility information DB 402 stores actual power generation amount data and power generation capacity for each specific time period at specific power generation facilities owned by power generation companies and power generation BGs. Specifically, the information includes, for example, DC power generation amount, AC power generation amount, whether or not output suppression is occurring, whether or not various devices are malfunctioning, operation status information, the installation location of the power generation facility, address, latitude, longitude, altitude, etc., as well as DC capacity, AC capacity, number of PCS (Power Conditioning Systems), PCS manufacturer, operation start date, etc. The information owned by the power generation facility is acquired by the acquisition unit 2104 via the network NW and stored in the power generation facility information DB 402.

[0057] The power generation facility information DB 402 also stores power generation prediction information calculated by the first power generation prediction unit 2101 and the second power generation prediction unit 2102 (described later) as well as power generation prediction information created by an organization outside the plan creation system. That is, the power generation facility information DB 402 stores a set of a power generation prediction value and an actual power generation value for a specific time period of a specific power generation facility. The power generation prediction information also includes information such as the power generation prediction value, the maximum and minimum values ​​of the expected prediction error range, and the prediction error from the actual power generation. The power generation prediction information created by the external organization is acquired by the acquisition unit 2104 via the network NW and stored in the power generation facility information DB 402. The power generation prediction information calculated by the first power generation prediction unit 2101 and the second power generation prediction unit 2102 is stored in the power generation facility information DB 402 by the first power generation prediction unit 2101 and the second power generation prediction unit 2102. The power generation facility information DB 402 also stores predicted power generation amounts calculated for each of a plurality of power generation amount prediction types, which will be described later.

[0058] The current affairs information DB 403 stores current affairs information relating to accidents and the economy, such as increases in oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices and the outbreak of war, for each specific date, time, and time period. This current affairs information is acquired by the acquisition unit 2104 from current affairs information providers via the network NW and stored in the current affairs information DB 403.

[0059] The power system information DB 404 stores wide-area reserve margin information published by OCCTO. That is, the value of the wide-area reserve margin for a specific time period in the area to which the power generation facility belongs is obtained by the acquisition unit 2104 from the OCCTO website and stored in the power system information DB 404. The wide-area reserve margin information is data indicating power tightness information, and past wide-area reserve margin information is used as training data for the trained models used in the first power generation amount prediction unit 2101 and the second power generation amount prediction unit 2102, and future wide-area reserve margin information is used as input data for calculating a forecast of the power price in creating a power generation sales plan.

[0060] The power price information DB 405 stores actual and predicted imbalance fee values ​​for each time slot on a specific day, and actual power buying and selling prices (contract prices) and predicted power buying and selling prices in various power trading markets, such as the spot market and the hourly market in JPEX, or the supply and demand adjustment market and the capacity market. The power price information DB 405 also stores predicted surplus and shortage imbalance amounts. The actual imbalance fee value and the actual power buying and selling prices in the spot market and the hourly market are acquired from the JPEX website by the acquisition unit 2104, and are stored in the power price information DB 405. The predicted imbalance fee value is stored in the power price information DB 405 by an imbalance fee prediction unit 2108 or an imbalance fee predicted value acquisition unit 2109, both of which will be described later, and the predicted power buying and selling price is stored in the power price information DB 405 by an imbalance fee prediction unit 2108 or an imbalance fee predicted value acquisition unit 2109, both of which will be described later.

[0061] The user information DB 406 stores basic information about users (including the user's name, login information (account) for the plan creation system, information about the power generation facilities under their jurisdiction, information about balancing groups, etc., as well as the selection of a power generation forecast type, a plan creation schedule, change conditions for changing the power generation and sales plan, and a limit on the number of changes, as described below) and transaction cost information about electricity for each user. The transaction cost information includes, for example, transaction costs incurred by users when buying and selling electricity, as well as the purchase price of storage batteries, land use fees, and wheeling costs for transmitting electricity via the grid. The user information DB 406 also stores condition setting values ​​used when creating and changing a power generation and sales plan to be submitted to OCCTO in the plan creation unit 2105, described below. Here, the basic information and transaction cost information of each user are stored in the user information DB 406 by input by the administrator or user of the plan creation system, and the condition setting values ​​used in plan creation are stored in the plan history DB 408 together with the plan data by the plan control unit 2114, described below.

[0062] The buying and selling transaction information DB 407 stores data on the user's electricity buying and selling transaction history for a specific time period. Specifically, the data includes the user's trading history in various electricity trading markets, such as the spot market, the hourly market, the supply and demand adjustment market, and the capacity market, the electricity buying and selling price unit price, the total sales volume, the total buying and selling amount, the user's payment amount and sales amount due to the occurrence of an imbalance, the user's sales history to retail electricity suppliers, and the user's profit calculated from these. This electricity buying and selling transaction history data is stored in the buying and selling transaction information DB 407 by the buying and selling transaction processing unit 2115, which will be described later.

[0063] The plan history DB 408 stores plan data created by the power planning system. A plan creation unit 2105 (described later) creates plans and stores all plans in the plan history DB 408. The stored plan data, together with past power buying and selling transaction performance data, is used as training data for creating future plans. The plan history DB 408 also stores data related to the power generation amount prediction type used in creating the plan, changed power generation plan values, and changed plans (described later).

[0064] [2.2 Plan Creation Function] Next, the functional configuration of the control unit 210 in this plan creation system will be described with reference to Fig. 3. In this plan creation system, the control unit 210 starts up application programs stored in the storage device 230 and realizes predetermined functions using data stored in the above-mentioned DBs in the storage device 230. The functions executed by the control unit 210 include a first power generation amount prediction unit 2101, a second power generation amount prediction unit 2102, a type selection unit 2103, an acquisition unit 2104, a plan creation unit 2105, an electricity trading price prediction unit 2106, an electricity trading price predicted value acquisition unit 2107, an imbalance fee prediction unit 2108, an imbalance fee predicted value acquisition unit 2109, a determination control unit 2110, a change input unit 2111, a plan change unit 2112, an activation selection unit 2113, a plan control unit 2114, and a trading transaction processing unit 2115.

[0065] The first power generation amount prediction unit 2101 calculates a future power generation amount prediction value based on past power generation amount prediction data and corresponding past power generation amount actual data. The past power generation amount actual data is obtained from the power generation facility and stored in the power generation facility information DB 402. The power generation amount prediction value is a prediction value previously calculated by the first power generation amount prediction unit 2101, and uses the data stored in the power generation facility information DB 402. When calculating the power generation amount prediction value, other facility information stored in the power generation facility information DB 402 may also be taken into consideration. The calculation of the power generation amount prediction value may use an average of past power generation amount actual data over a predetermined period, or may be calculated using a trained model that uses additional information such as past power generation amount prediction data, past power generation amount actual data, and past power generation facility information as training data. The power generation amount prediction value calculated by the first power generation amount prediction unit 2101 is stored in the power generation facility information DB 402. The calculated power generation amount prediction value may be used as training data for calculating a future power generation amount prediction value. The first power generation amount prediction unit 2101 is mainly used to calculate predicted values ​​for the amount of power generated in power generation facilities (such as geothermal and biomass power generation) that are less susceptible to short-term weather fluctuations.

[0066] The second power generation prediction unit 2102 calculates a future power generation prediction value based on past power generation prediction data, corresponding past power generation actual data, past weather information, and past power generation facility information. The past power generation actual data uses data acquired from the power generation facility and stored in the power generation facility information DB 402. The past power generation prediction data is a prediction value previously calculated by the second power generation prediction unit 2102, and uses the data stored in the power generation facility information DB 402. The calculation of the power generation prediction value may use an average of past power generation actual data over a predetermined period, or may be calculated using a trained model that uses past power generation prediction data, actual power generation data, power generation facility information, weather information, current events, and other additional information as training data. The calculated power generation prediction value may be used as training data for calculating a future power generation prediction value. The second power generation prediction unit 2102 is mainly used to calculate a power generation prediction value for power generation facilities such as solar and wind power generation facilities, whose power generation is easily affected by weather fluctuations.

[0067] For example, in the case of solar power generation, the second power generation prediction unit 2102 can predict the amount of power generated and the time it takes for the solar power generation facility to generate electricity using the amount of solar radiation, the duration of sunlight, the power generation efficiency of the solar power generation facility, and other factors based on weather forecast information for the area where the solar power generation facility is installed. The power generation efficiency of a solar power generation facility varies depending on factors such as the aging and dirt of the solar panels used, the type of panel, and the installation angle. Therefore, the power generation efficiency may be calculated using a predetermined calculation formula weighted for each of these factors. Alternatively, the calculation may be performed using a trained model that has learned the relationship between the factors and past actual power generation data as training data. In the case of wind power generation, the weather information used for the prediction is wind speed and wind direction, etc., while in the case of hydroelectric power generation, it is rainfall, etc., but the other aspects are similar and therefore will not be described again. The calculated power generation prediction value is stored in the power generation facility information DB 402.

[0068] The first power generation prediction unit 2101 and the second power generation prediction unit 2102 calculate a power generation prediction range defined by a minimum power generation prediction value and a maximum power generation prediction value, together with the power generation prediction value. The power generation prediction range refers to, for example, an interval within which prediction is reliable. Information on the power generation prediction range defined by the minimum power generation prediction value and the maximum power generation prediction value calculated by the first power generation prediction unit 2101 and the second power generation prediction unit 2102 is stored in the power generation facility information DB 402 together with the power generation prediction value.

[0069] The first power generation amount prediction unit 2101 and the second power generation amount prediction unit 2102 can repeatedly calculate the predicted value for a specific time at intervals set in advance by the user, separate from the plan creation schedule, until the gate close time (one hour before the actual supply and demand). This is because the predicted power generation amount is useful as training data, and can also be used as a guide for calculating the predicted power generation range, since the predicted power generation amount can fluctuate significantly due to changes in weather and current information.

[0070] The contents of the data of the power generation amount prediction value by the first power generation amount prediction unit 2101 and / or the second power generation amount prediction unit 2102 will be described.

[0071] 5A-5C show excerpts from the data table stored in the power generation facility information DB 402, which pertain to the predicted and actual power generation values ​​for a specific day at the photovoltaic power generation facility 1-1. FIG. 5A shows frames 1-17, FIG. 5B shows frames 18-37, and FIG. 5C shows frames 38-48. The data table includes the predicted power generation values, minimum and maximum predicted power generation values ​​from the first power generation prediction unit 2101 or the second power generation prediction unit 2102, as well as predicted power generation values ​​for each power generation prediction type (prediction types 1-4) calculated from the predicted power generation values ​​according to a preset risk tolerance, and stored together with the actual power generation values. The data table may also include the type of prediction value setting means (AI is used in FIGS. 5A-5C). Each value is divided into 48 frames per day, each 30 minutes long, and a separate data table is created for each power generation facility. The data in the data table is used by the plan creation unit 2105, described below, when creating a plan.

[0072] The risk tolerance will now be described. When creating a power generation plan, the user is required to calculate a power generation prediction value that takes into account the risk tolerance of surplus and shortage imbalance, rather than the power generation prediction value itself calculated by the first power generation prediction unit 2101 and / or the second power generation prediction unit 2102, and to determine bidding conditions using the calculated value. Therefore, when creating a power generation plan, it is preferable to specify a power generation prediction type according to the risk tolerance of surplus and shortage imbalance, and to determine a bidding policy using the calculated power generation prediction value.

[0073] The types of power generation prediction to be selected preferably include the predicted power generation value, the maximum predicted power generation value, the minimum predicted power generation value, a value calculated based on the average value of the predicted power generation value over a specified period, and a value calculated based on the average value of some or all of the past power generation actual data, and include, for example, "minimizing the risk of shortage imbalance (using the minimum predicted power generation value)," "reducing the risk of shortage imbalance (using the intermediate value between the predicted power generation value and the minimum predicted power generation value)," "minimizing the risk of surplus and shortage imbalance (using the predicted power generation value)," and "maximizing the bid amount (using the intermediate value between the maximum predicted power generation value and the predicted power generation value)."

[0074] FIG. 6 is a graph of predicted power generation amounts for power generation amount prediction types 1 to 4 corresponding to risk tolerance levels 1 to 4. Such graphs may be displayed on the screen when a user creates a power generation plan. Furthermore, past power generation amount prediction data stored in the power generation facility information DB 402 may be graphed together with past power generation amount actual data, and displayed on the screen at the user's request. Displaying information using past data when creating a plan is achieved by the plan creation unit 2105, described below, acquiring information stored in each DB and converting it into data such as a graph. Graphing the predicted power generation amount for each power generation amount prediction type and displaying it on the user terminal enables the user to create an appropriate plan, taking into account the risk of surplus and shortage imbalance.

[0075] The type selection unit 2103 selects a specific power generation amount prediction type from among a plurality of power generation amount prediction types according to the above-mentioned risk tolerance, based on a user request. The power generation amount prediction values ​​calculated for each of the plurality of power generation amount prediction types are stored in the power generation facility information DB 402. The power generation amount prediction type can be selected in advance by the user, and the setting content is saved in the user information DB 406 by the type selection unit 2103. In addition, the power generation amount prediction type used by the user to create a plan is saved in the plan history DB 408 together with the created plan.

[0076] The acquisition unit 2104 acquires various information from organizations outside the management server 1 of this plan creation system, and stores it in each DB in the storage device 230. The information acquired by the acquisition unit 2104 includes weather information, power generation facility information, current affairs information, wide-area reserve margin information, and electricity buying and selling price information. When an external organization calculates predicted values ​​for electricity buying and selling prices and imbalance charges, the acquisition unit 2104 acquires this information and stores it in each DB in the storage device 230.

[0077] In this planning system, if the predicted power generation value is calculated by an institution outside of this planning system, the acquisition unit 2104 acquires the predicted power generation value from that institution, and the planning unit 2105 described below creates a plan using the acquired predicted value.

[0078] The plan creation unit 2105 automatically creates a plan based on the power generation prediction value corresponding to the power generation prediction type selected by the user, in accordance with plan creation and submission rules previously set by the user. Fig. 7 is a block diagram showing the functions of the plan creation unit 2105. The plan creation unit 2105 has a data table creation means 2105a that creates a data table that forms the basis of the plan, a display data creation means 2105b that converts the created data table into display data to be displayed on the user terminal, and an output data creation means 2105c that converts the power generation and sales plan into various data including submission data to be submitted to OCCTO and data to be used for bidding in JPEX.

[0079] Furthermore, the display data creation means 2105b can create new display data according to user requests by editing data stored in each DB in the storage device 230 and information acquired from external organizations, in addition to the data table created by the data table creation means 2105a. For example, schedule data for managing the submission schedule of power generation and sales plans to OCCTO can be created, improving the convenience of users when creating, viewing, and changing plans. Examples of schedule data for OCCTO include, but are not limited to, layouts that display the power generation and sales plans in sections by preset date and time, distinguish whether the power generation and sales plans can be changed based on at least the gate closing time, and display which of the plan change section 2112 and the change input section 2111 is enabled for the power generation and sales plans displayed in sections.

[0080] Other display data that can be created by the display data creation means 2105b includes, but is not limited to, a browsing page with one or more links selected from the group consisting of information on the operating status of power generation facilities, weather forecast data, electricity buying and selling prices in the spot market or the hourly market, imbalance charge unit prices, and wide-area reserve margins, and data for displaying information obtained by web scraping technology.

[0081] The output data creation means 2105c converts the database created by the database creation means 2105a into a format that can be used for submitting plans to OCCTO, bidding in various electricity trading markets such as JPEX, the supply and demand adjustment market, and the capacity market, or for notifying plans to retail electricity companies, etc.

[0082] 8A-8F are examples of data tables for power generation plans created by the plan creation unit 2105 (data table creation means 2105a). FIG. 8A shows frames 1-13 of power generation facility 1-1, FIG. 8B shows frames 14-33, FIG. 8C shows frames 34-48, FIG. 8D shows frames 1-13 of power generation facility 1-2, FIG. 8E shows frames 14-33, and FIG. 8F shows frames 34-48 of power generation facility 1-2. The examples in FIGS. 8A-8F show power generation plans for electric power company A as of 9:00 AM on September 30th, the day before the actual supply and demand on October 1st, 2024. These plans will be part of the next-day plan to be submitted to OCTTO by noon (12:00 PM) on September 30th. Electric power company A operates power generation BG1, which has two solar power generation facilities (1-1 and 1-2). The power generation plan lists the amount of power generation in 30-minute intervals, including the actual power generation plan value (the predicted power generation value calculated based on the selected power generation prediction type), the predicted power generation value calculated by the second power generation prediction unit 2102, and the average of the actual power generation values ​​for the previous three to one weeks. The upper right corner of the data table clearly indicates the initial settings: manual or automatic update type, power generation prediction type, and risk tolerance. Selecting a risk tolerance here may automatically input the corresponding power generation prediction type, or selecting a power generation prediction type first may automatically input the corresponding risk tolerance. The predicted value settings in Figures 8A-F indicate whether to use a trained model (AI) or the average value for a specified period for power generation prediction, but these options can be set by the user. The data table created by the data table creation means 2105a is converted and used based on the intended purpose by the display data creation means 2105b, as described above. In particular, it is preferable that the user terminal display screen created by the display data creating means 2105b is converted into data that allows the user to change the plan settings and manually change the plan values ​​on the screen of the user terminal.

[0083] As described above, the first power generation prediction unit 2101 and the second power generation prediction unit 2102 continue to calculate the power generation prediction value at preset intervals until the gate close time, and the latest power generation prediction value is continuously added to the power generation facility information DB 402. Therefore, the plan creation unit 2105 acquires the latest power generation prediction value in accordance with the plan creation schedule, and the data table creation means 2105a creates a new data table and stores it in the plan history DB 408. The creation of a new data table is performed at least according to a plan creation schedule preset by the user, but is not limited to this. In particular, when the determination control unit 2110 issues an instruction to change the plan based on market fluctuations or other reasons, the plan creation unit 2105 may create a new data table separately from the original scheduled submission date and time.

[0084] Figures 9A-C are examples of data tables for a sales plan created based on the power generation plans shown in Figures 8A-F. Figure 9A shows frames 1-17, Figure 9B shows frames 18-37, and Figure 9C shows frames 38-48. The data tables in Figures 9A-C also include a power generation plan that includes power generation BG1, which includes power generation facilities 1-1 and 1-2 shown in Figures 8A-F, as well as power generation BG2, which includes power generation facilities 2-1 and 2-2. The sales plans in Figures 9A-C allocate the total power generated by power generation BG1 and BG2 to pre-defined buyers 1 and 2. However, if the power to be sold includes discharge from owned storage batteries or purchases from retail electricity suppliers, these may also be added to the data table. The power buyers are initially listed, and the number of buyers to be added to the data table and the details of the power allocation to each buyer can be preset. In the examples of Figures 9A to 9C, for example, it is assumed that Customer 1 is JPEX and Customer 2 is a fixed-price sale based on a bilateral contract with a retail electricity supplier, but it is also possible to add other sales destinations such as supply as adjustment capacity after gate closure and charging of owned energy storage facilities. This sales plan will also become part of the next-day plan to be submitted to OCTTO by noon (12:00) on September 30th, the day before actual supply and demand.

[0085] The power trading price prediction unit 2106 calculates a predicted value of future power trading prices in the power trading market and stores the calculated value in the power price information DB 405. Furthermore, when multiple trading markets, such as a spot market, an hourly market, a supply-demand balancing market, and a capacity market, need to be considered, the power trading price prediction unit 2106 calculates a predicted value of the power trading price for each trading market. The method for predicting the power trading price is not particularly limited. For example, the power trading price in the market may be predicted based on past predicted and actual power trading prices in the target area, weather information, calendar information, current events information, wide-area power system utilization reserve margin information, etc., or may be calculated using a trained model that uses this information and data on past actual power trading prices as training data. The power trading market may include the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX), a supply-demand balancing market, a capacity market, etc.

[0086] The power trading price predicted value acquisition unit 2107 acquires predicted future power trading prices in the power trading market from an institution outside this plan creation system, and stores them in the power price information DB 405. Note that either the power trading price prediction unit 2106 or the power trading price predicted value acquisition unit 2107 may be included in this plan creation system, or they may coexist.

[0087] The imbalance fee prediction unit 2108 calculates future surplus and shortage imbalance amounts and a predicted imbalance fee value, and stores them in the power price information DB 405. The method for predicting the imbalance fee is not particularly limited, and for example, the imbalance fee may be predicted based on past performance information, weather information, calendar information, current events information, wide-area reserve margin information for power system usage, etc. in the target area, or the imbalance fee may be calculated using a trained model that has trained the relationship between these information and past actual imbalance fee values ​​as training data.

[0088] The imbalance fee forecast value acquisition unit 2109 acquires future imbalance fee forecast values ​​from an organization outside this plan creation system, and stores them in the power price information DB 405. Note that either the imbalance fee prediction unit 2108 or the imbalance fee forecast value acquisition unit 2109 may be included in this plan creation system, or they may coexist.

[0089] [2.3 Plan Modification Function] The user can modify the created plan in accordance with time-varying weather information, predicted power purchase and sale prices, predicted imbalance charges, etc. The plan modification function will be described below using an example of a power generation and sales plan to be submitted to OCCTO.

[0090] The judgment control unit 2110 judges whether to change the power generation and sales plan, etc., according to a plan creation schedule previously set by the user or separately from the schedule, and also judges whether to change the plan using the plan change unit 2112 or the change input unit 2111 described below.

[0091] The plan creation unit 2105 automatically creates a power generation sales plan according to a plan creation schedule predetermined by the user. However, unexpected supply and demand fluctuations and other situations may occur that could have a significant impact on the user's profits if the created sales plan is executed as is. In such cases, a new plan can be created by changing the power generation sales plan, etc., separately from the plan creation date and time predetermined by the user.

[0092] Examples of situations that may have a significant impact on a user's profits include, but are not limited to, the following: i) when the fluctuation range of the predicted power generation amount calculated or obtained after the creation of the power generation plan and / or power sales plan compared to the predicted power generation amount obtained when the power generation plan or power sales plan was created exceeds a predetermined threshold; ii) when a change in the operating status of a power generation facility that occurred after the creation of the power generation plan and / or power sales plan corresponds to a predetermined change; iii) when a change in information on the wide-area reserve margin corresponds to a predetermined change; and iv) when the fluctuation range of the market electricity purchasing and selling price compared to the predicted market electricity purchasing and selling price calculated or obtained when the power generation plan and / or power sales plan was created exceeds a predetermined threshold.

[0093] The determination control unit 2110 determines whether further plan changes are necessary and whether the plan changes should be made automatically or manually during the time when plan changes are possible up until the gate closing time. The change conditions that form the basis for the determination by the determination control unit 2110 are the occurrence of the above-mentioned situations, but these can be set appropriately based on the circumstances of each individual user. The change conditions for changing the power generation and sales plan are stored in the user information DB 406, and the determination control unit 2110 determines whether a plan change is necessary based on the change conditions stored in the user information DB 406.

[0094] If the determination control unit 2110 determines that a plan change is necessary, it outputs plan change instruction information to the activation selection unit 2113. The activation selection unit 2113 activates the function of either the plan change unit 2112 or the change input unit 2111 based on the plan change instruction from the determination control unit 2110. Furthermore, if a predetermined change count limit set by the user is exceeded, if the gate close time has elapsed, or if an instruction is received from the determination control unit 2110, the functions of the plan change unit 2112 and / or the change input unit 2111 may be stopped or disabled.

[0095] The plan change unit 2112 acquires a change instruction from the determination control unit 2110, acquires the latest power generation sales plan created by the plan creation unit 2105, automatically changes the power generation sales plan to the latest power generation sales plan, and stores the changed power generation plan values ​​and data related to the changed plan in the plan history DB 408. The power generation plan values ​​and sales plan values ​​(amount of power to be sold to each buyer) of the changed plan stored in the plan history DB 408 may be used as training data when the plan creation unit 2105 creates or changes a power generation sales plan in the future.

[0096] The change input unit 2111 receives instructions from the judgment control unit 2110 and accepts manual input of the power generation and sales plan by the user. Manual input may prohibit or invalidate changes to the plan after the gate closing time, and a limit may be set on the number of changes. Also, a specification may be such that values ​​that have been manually changed once are not automatically changed. These change restrictions can be set in advance by the user, and the setting contents are stored in the user information DB 406.

[0097] 10A and 10B are flowcharts showing the decision-making process when changing a power generation and sales plan created in a plan creation schedule, and are an example of the aforementioned "i) case where the fluctuation range of the power generation forecast value obtained after the creation of the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan, relative to the power generation forecast value obtained when the power generation plan or the power sales plan was created, exceeds a preset threshold value."

[0098] 10A is a flowchart for changing a power generation plan. In the example of FIG. 10A, the user has set the system to switch to manual change when a new predicted power generation amount fluctuates from the predicted power generation amount before the change by a rate exceeding a predetermined threshold range. That is, the plan creation unit 2105 automatically creates a new plan in accordance with the user's plan creation schedule, but the automatic plan creation is stopped based on the judgment of the determination control unit 2110, manual plan change input is enabled, and the user is prompted to make a change.

[0099] The acquisition unit 2104 acquires weather information, current events information, information on the wide-area reserve margin for power system utilization, information on the power market, etc. via the network NW (S101). The determination control unit 2110 determines whether the time frame for which a plan change is being considered is before gate closure, and if it is after gate closure (S102: No), determines that the plan change is not possible. If the time frame for which a plan change is being considered is before gate closure (S102: Yes), determines that a change to the power generation plan is possible (S103). However, at this point, the change plan is not automatically created. If the latest predicted power generation amount does not exceed a predetermined threshold compared to the predicted power generation amount before the change (S104: No), the determination control unit 2110 outputs an automatic change instruction to the activation selection unit 2113, and the activation selection unit 2113 activates the plan change unit 2112. The plan creation unit 2105 creates a new plan, and the plan change unit 2112 updates the plan to the new plan and stores it in the plan history DB 408. If the power generation amount prediction value based on the newly obtained information exceeds a predetermined threshold value compared to the power generation amount prediction value before the change (S104: Yes), the determination control unit 2110 outputs a manual change instruction to the activation selection unit 2113, and the activation selection unit 2113 activates the change input unit 2111. The determination control unit 2110 may also be configured to issue an alert to the user requesting a manual plan change.

[0100] In the example of FIG. 10A , the condition for switching to manual change is a fluctuation exceeding a predetermined threshold between the latest predicted power generation amount and the immediately preceding predicted power generation amount. However, the condition is not limited to this example. For example, if the power buying and selling price fluctuates by a certain amount or more, if information on a wide-area reserve margin indicating a power shortage is obtained, or if current information on a power generation facility shutdown is obtained, it can be assumed that a large-scale market fluctuation will occur in the future. The condition for switching from automatic change to manual change can be set arbitrarily by the user. Furthermore, if the latest predicted power generation amount is higher than the predicted power generation amount obtained when creating the power generation sales plan, the buying and selling prices in the time-ahead market can be compared with the surplus imbalance charge. If the surplus imbalance charge is high, the determination control unit 2110 may add a condition as a change condition. The condition is that if the latest predicted power generation amount is higher than the predicted power generation amount obtained when creating the power generation sales plan, the buying and selling prices in the time-ahead market can be compared with the surplus imbalance charge. If the surplus imbalance charge is high, the determination control unit 2110 determines that a plan change is unnecessary.

[0101] FIG. 10B is a flowchart for changing a sales plan. In FIG. 10B , the user configures the system to switch to manual change when the difference (including the absolute value or the percentage increase or decrease) between the predicted and actual power purchase and sale prices used to create the latest sales plan exceeds a predetermined threshold. The determination control unit 2110 acquires the latest actual power purchase and sale price values ​​and the predicted power purchase and sale price values ​​used to create the latest sales plan from the purchase and sale transaction information DB 407 (S201). The determination control unit 2110 determines whether the time frame for which the plan change is being considered is before gate closure. If it is after gate closure (S202: No), the determination control unit 2110 determines that the plan change is not possible (S203). If the time frame for which the plan change is being considered is before gate closure (S202: Yes), the determination control unit 2110 determines that the sales plan change is possible (S204). However, the change plan is not automatically created at this point. The difference between the predicted and actual power trading prices used in the latest sales plan is calculated and compared. If the difference exceeds a preset threshold (S205: Yes), the determination control unit 2110 outputs an instruction to the activation selection unit 2113 to activate the change input unit 2111, and the activation selection unit 2113 activates the change input unit 2111. The determination control unit 2110 may also be configured to issue an alert to the user requesting manual plan changes. If the difference between the predicted and actual power trading prices used in the latest sales plan does not exceed a preset threshold (S205: No), the determination control unit 2110 outputs an instruction to the activation selection unit 2113 to activate the plan change unit 2112, and the activation selection unit 2113 activates the plan change unit 2112. However, when modifying the sales plan, the modification is made to match the values ​​in the power generation plan.

[0102] [2.4 Plan Execution Function] When an electricity purchase and sale transaction is conducted based on the created power generation and sales plan, the purchase and sale transaction processing unit 2115 calculates an actual electricity sales volume value and an actual electricity sales revenue value, and stores them as electricity purchase and sale transaction data in the purchase and sale transaction information DB 407. The electricity sales volume is obtained by acquiring the amount of electricity actually generated and transmitted for each power generation facility through data communication with a power generation company or a general power transmission and distribution company. The electricity sales revenue can be calculated by multiplying the transmitted amount of electricity by the final transaction price with the buyer stored in the purchase and sale transaction information DB 407. The electricity purchase and sale transaction data can include revenue data related to revenue, such as operating profit and gross profit from electricity purchase and sale, as well as various expenses incurred in electricity purchase and sale, including imbalance charges. The revenue data is calculated by referring to power generation cost information stored in the user information DB 406. The electricity purchase and sale transaction data stored in the purchase and sale transaction information DB 407 may be used as training data when the plan creation unit 2105 creates a future power generation and sales plan.

[0103] The plan control unit 2114 performs various processes associated with the plan created by the plan creation unit 2105. For example, in response to a user request, the plan control unit 2114 submits the created power generation and sales plan to OCCTO, a retail electricity supplier, etc., executes bidding for buying and selling in JEPX, the supply and demand balancing market, the capacity market, etc., processes changes to the plan input by the user, stores the data in the plan history DB 408, and displays the plan data for display on the user terminal screen. Furthermore, the plan control unit 2114 can simulate past or future profits based on the created power generation and sales plan. For example, the plan control unit 2114 can analyze past transaction performance when, in past transactions, the average value of past performance data is changed as the power generation forecast value to a forecast value based on a trained model, when the risk tolerance for the power generation forecast value is changed, when the sales destination is changed, etc., or when transaction forecasts are changed to check future trading forecast trends.

[0104] Specific embodiments of the power generation plan creation system of the present invention will be described below. [Embodiment 1: Creation of a power generation and sales plan] A user sets the conditions for the power generation plan and the sales plan from an initial setting screen. Fig. 11 is an example of an initial setting screen for the power generation plan. The power generation plan is scheduled to create the first plan at 5:00 PM two days before the actual supply and demand, and the second plan at 5:00 AM the day before. The plan creation date and creation time can be changed as desired from the initial screen.

[0105] As a creation policy, the user can select automatic calculation using a trained model, automatic calculation using past performance, or manual input for calculating the power generation forecast value. When using a trained model, the user can select from four types of risk tolerance, similar to the example in Figure 6, which take into account surplus and shortage imbalance risks. In this embodiment, the user selects the system forecast value, which is automatically calculated using a trained model, and sets the risk tolerance to 3. Note that the content of the risk tolerance can be specified so that an explanation is displayed by, for example, pressing the "Risk Tolerance?" button with the mouse. When using automatic calculation using past performance, the user can specify the weighting of the past performance value to be used.

[0106] The user sets the change policy and change conditions for the submitted plan. In this embodiment, the user selects whether or not to manually change the plan when an event occurs that may affect the user's profits, even if it is outside the predetermined plan creation schedule, as the change policy. In the example of Figure 11, the setting is such that manual plan changes are performed in such cases.

[0107] Next, the user sets the conditions for making the change. In the example of FIG. 11 , the user can select either “Change frames greater than or equal to a specified difference” or “Change by specifying a submission policy” as the post-submission change policy. Here, “Change frames greater than or equal to a specified difference” is a policy that stops automatic plan updates and switches to manual updates when fluctuations in the power generation forecast value or the buying and selling price, which are calculated at regular intervals, fluctuate by more than a certain percentage compared to the values ​​in the base frame. “Change by specifying a submission policy” can be set arbitrarily by the user, for example, when current information such as the shutdown of a power generation facility is acquired. In this embodiment, the user selects “Change frames greater than or equal to a specified difference,” and when the power buying and selling price in the market on the previous day fluctuates by more than 6 yen / kWh compared to the forecast value from the day before that, an alert is displayed, and the power generation plan is changed to manual updates and re-created. The selection items written in box 1101 for setting change conditions, "Electricity buying and selling price," "Predicted value from the day before last," "Predicted value from the day before last," "-6," "+6," and "yen / kWh," can also be selected from multiple pre-registered items using a pull-down menu or the like, and for example, it is possible to set and select "The difference between the predicted value from the day before last and the predicted value from the day before last is -15 to +0%."

[0108] Figures 12A-F are examples of display screens for a power generation plan as of 1:30 PM on September 30th. Figure 12A shows frames 1-14 of power generation facility 1-1, Figure 12B shows frames 15-33, Figure 12C shows frames 34-48, Figure 12D shows frames 1-14 of power generation facility 1-2, Figure 12E shows frames 15-33, and Figure 12F shows frames 34-48 of power generation facility 1-2. The power generation plan display screen is a result of the display data creation unit 2105b processing the data tables shown in Figures 8A-F for user screen display. The screen displays the user name, the date and time the plan was created (5:00 AM in Figure 12A), as well as the update method, forecast value settings, and tolerances for calculating the forecast values. While Figures 12A-F display the power generation plans for power generation facilities 1-1 and 1-2 of BG1 side by side, the user can freely configure the page layout.

[0109] 12B-C and E-F, a box 1201 is attached to the power generation plan value from frame 30 onwards, which indicates the part that can be changed before the gate is closed. In other words, frames 1 to 29 cannot be changed because the gate is closed, and the forecast value is not updated. For the changeable frame from frame 30 onwards, changes can be made manually or automatically until the gate is closed. If the user manually changes the value for the changeable frame, the plan control unit 2114 stores the changed plan in the plan history DB 408.

[0110] FIG. 13 is an example of an initial setting screen for a sales plan. As with the power generation plan, the sales plan is scheduled so that the first plan is created at 5:00 PM two days before the actual supply and demand, and the second plan is created at 5:00 AM the day before. As with the power generation plan, the plan creation date and creation time can be changed as desired from the initial screen. In the example of FIG. 13, the allocation of generated electricity to buyers can be selected. In the example of FIG. 13, the setting to automatically calculate the buyers and sales volume to each buyer is checked, but either the buyers or sales volume can also be set manually. The buyers are buyers registered in the system in advance, and electricity price information for the buyers is periodically acquired by the acquisition unit 2104 until the gate closes.

[0111] In the example of Fig. 13, as in Fig. 11, the user sets a change policy and change conditions for the submitted plan. In this embodiment, the user selects, as the change policy, whether or not to manually change the plan when an event occurs that may affect the user's profits, even if it is not within the predetermined planning schedule. In the example of Fig. 13, the setting is made to perform manual plan changes.

[0112] Next, the user sets the conditions for making the change. In the example of FIG. 13 , as with the power generation plan of FIG. 11 , the parameters in box 1301 can be changed as change conditions. In the example of FIG. 13 , "change frames with a specified difference or more" is a policy to stop automatic updating of the plan and switch to manual updating when the fluctuation in the power purchase and sale price in each frame fluctuates by more than a certain percentage compared to the value in the reference frame, and "specify and change submission policy" is the same as in FIG. 11 and will not be described here. In this embodiment, as with the power generation plan, an alert is displayed and the change is switched to manual updating when the actual value of the market power purchase and sale price fluctuates by 6 yen / kWh or more from the forecast value of the previous day.

[0113] Figures 14A-C are examples of display screens for a sales plan as of 11:00 AM on September 30th. Figure 14A shows frames 1-17, Figure 14B shows frames 18-37, and Figure 14C shows frames 38-48. The sales plan display screen is a user screen display created by the display data creation unit 2105b, which processes the data table in Figures 9A-C. The screen displays the user's name, the date and time the plan was created (5:00 AM in Figures 12A-F), and the amount of electricity generated by the user's power generation units BG1 and BG2 when allocated to buyers 1 and 2 for sale. The display contents of the sales plan are not limited to those shown in Figures 14A-C. For example, the display may also display the power purchase and sale price and the user's revenue from power sales. While Figures 14A-C simultaneously display the power generation plan and sales plan, the user can freely configure the layout, such as displaying only the sales plan.

[0114] 14A to 14C, a box 1401 is attached to the sales plan value for all frames, which indicates the portion that can be changed before the gate closes. The changeable box can be changed manually or automatically until the gate closes. If the user manually changes the plan value for the changeable box, the plan control unit 2114 stores the changed plan value in the plan history DB 408.

[0115] FIG. 15 is an example of a list screen of the submission schedule of the power generation sales plan created by the plan creation unit 2105 (display data creation means 2105b). From this list screen, the user can understand the contents of the power generation sales plan that must be submitted within a specified period. In the example of FIG. 15, a one-week schedule is shown, and each box shows the name of the power generation BG, the type of plan, and whether it is updated automatically or manually. However, the user can arbitrarily set the display content, and the period of the schedule displayed on the screen can be arbitrarily set, such as daily or monthly. In addition, while FIG. 15 shows a plan divided by BG, it is also possible to divide the plan by power generation facility or by group set by the user.

[0116] The schedule list screen in Fig. 15 has a link to a screen for viewing or changing the power generation and sales plan, and clicking on each cell 1501 takes you to a page that displays the power generation and sales plan, such as those in Figs. 12A to 12F or 14A to 14C. In addition, pressing the "Automatic" or "Manual" button allows you to switch between automatic and manual plan change settings.

[0117] [Embodiment 2: Changes to the Power Generation Sales Plan] Changes to the power generation sales plan will now be described. FIG. 16 is an example of a graph displayed in the plan creation system for the spot market price in a specific area on JPEX on a specific day. The dashed line represents the predicted value of the power purchase and sale price predicted two days before the actual supply and demand date (predicted value two days before), and the solid line represents the predicted value of the power purchase and sale price predicted the day before (predicted value the day before). For example, for the 17th frame (8:00 AM to 8:30 AM), the predicted value two days before was approximately 10 yen, and the predicted value the day before was approximately 8 yen. Since the difference between the two values ​​was within the threshold of 6 yen preset by the user, no manual change was made, and the power generation plan was automatically changed based on this predicted value. Plan changes were also made automatically in the subsequent frames in the same manner.

[0118] A change in the sales plan will now be described. FIG. 17 is a graph showing spot market prices in a specific area on JPEX on another day. The dashed line represents the predicted electricity purchase and sale price calculated two days before the actual supply and demand date (the two-day-ahead predicted value), and the solid line represents the predicted electricity purchase and sale price predicted the day before (the day-ahead predicted value). On this day, poor weather predicted little increase in daytime solar power generation. However, the weather information immediately before the event reported improvement, resulting in excess power supply contrary to the initial forecast, raising the possibility of output curtailment. For example, the two-day-ahead predicted value for the 26th period (12:30 AM to 1:00 PM) was approximately 9 yen, while the day-ahead predicted value for the same time was approximately 0.01 yen. Since the difference between the two prices was within the 6 yen threshold preset by the user, the determination control unit 2110 issued an alert to the user and instructed them to manually update the price.

[0119] Upon receiving the alert, users created new sales plans that took into account increasing sales volume to retail electricity suppliers, whose purchase and sale prices are fixed, or shifting the time at which electricity is sold using storage batteries, in order to maximize profits.

[0120] Although one embodiment of the present invention has been described above, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and modifications, improvements, etc. within the scope of achieving the object of the present invention are included in the present invention.

[0121] For example, the above-described series of processes can be executed by hardware or software. In other words, the functional configuration of FIG. 3 is merely illustrative and is not particularly limited. That is, it is sufficient for the planning system to have the functionality to execute the above-described series of processes as a whole, and the functional blocks used to realize these functions are not particularly limited to the example of FIG. 3. Furthermore, the locations of the functional blocks and databases are not particularly limited to those of FIG. 3 and may be arbitrary. For example, at least some of the functional blocks and databases required to execute various processes may be transferred to a user terminal or the like. Conversely, the functional blocks and databases of the user terminal may be transferred to a server or the like. Furthermore, one functional block may be configured as a single piece of hardware, a single piece of software, or a combination thereof.

[0122] When a series of processes is executed by software, the program constituting the software may be installed on a computer or the like from a network or a recording medium, or the program installed on an external computer may be used by being accessed via a network. The computer may be a computer incorporated in dedicated hardware. Furthermore, the computer may be a computer capable of executing various functions by installing various programs, such as a server, a general-purpose smartphone, or a personal computer.

[0123] The recording medium containing such a program may be composed of not only a removable medium (not shown) that is distributed separately from the device main body in order to provide the program to users, etc., but also a recording medium that is provided to users, etc. in a state where it is pre-installed in the device main body.

[0124] In this specification, the steps describing the program recorded on the recording medium include not only processes that are performed in chronological order, but also processes that are not necessarily performed in chronological order but are performed in parallel or individually. Also, in this specification, the term "system" means an overall device composed of multiple devices or multiple means, etc.

[0125] 1: Management server, 2: User server, 3: External organization server, 210: Control unit, 220: Input device, 230: Storage device, 240: Display device, 250: Communication device, 260: Output device, 401: Weather information DB, 402: Power generation facility information DB, 403: Current affairs information DB, 404: Power system information DB, 405: Power price information DB, 406: User information DB, 407: Buying and selling transaction information DB, 408: Plan history DB, 2101: First power generation amount prediction unit, 2102: Second power generation amount prediction unit, 2103: Type Separate selection unit, 2104: acquisition unit, 2105: plan creation unit, 2105a: data table creation means, 2105b: display data creation means, 2105c: output data creation means, 2106: electricity trading price prediction unit, 2107: electricity trading price predicted value acquisition unit, 2108: imbalance fee prediction unit, 2109: imbalance fee predicted value acquisition unit, 2110: judgment control unit, 2111: change input unit, 2112: plan change unit, 2113: validation selection unit, 2114: plan control unit, 2115: trading transaction processing unit.

Claims

1. A power plan creation system having: a type selection unit that selects one of a plurality of power generation prediction types; a plan creation unit that creates a power generation plan and / or power sales plan based on a power generation prediction value corresponding to the selected power generation prediction type; a determination control unit that determines whether the power generation plan and / or power sales plan satisfy specified conditions, and if it is determined that the power generation plan and / or power sales plan satisfy the specified requirements, outputs change instruction information for manually or automatically changing the created power generation plan and / or power sales plan; and a plan change unit that receives the change instruction information and automatically changes the power generation plan and / or power sales plan.

2. The power plan creation system of claim 1, wherein the power generation forecast type includes a value calculated based on a power generation forecast value, an upper limit value of a power generation forecast value, a lower limit value of a power generation forecast value and / or an average value of a power generation forecast value, or a value calculated based on past power generation actual values.

3. The power plan creation system of claim 1, wherein the specified conditions include one or more selected from the following i) to iv): i) the fluctuation range of the predicted power generation amount obtained after the creation of the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan, relative to the predicted power generation amount calculated or obtained when the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan was created, exceeds a predetermined threshold; ii) a change in the operating status of the power generation facility that occurred after the creation of the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan corresponds to the predetermined change; iii) a change in the information on the wide-area reserve rate corresponds to the predetermined change; iv) the fluctuation range of the market power buying and selling price, relative to the predicted market power buying and selling price calculated or obtained when the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan was created, exceeds a predetermined threshold.

4. The power plan creation system of claim 1, further comprising an acquisition unit that acquires information including a power generation forecast value corresponding to the selected power generation forecast type, and the plan creation unit creates the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan based on the acquired power generation forecast value.

5. The power plan creation system of claim 1, further comprising a first power generation prediction unit that calculates a power generation prediction value using a learned model that uses past power generation prediction values ​​and actual data as teacher data, and a plan creation unit that creates the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan based on the power generation prediction value calculated by the first power generation prediction unit.

6. The power plan creation system of claim 1, comprising: an acquisition unit that periodically acquires information including weather forecast data and actual power generation values ​​at a power generation facility; and a storage device that stores information including the actual power generation values, power generation capacity, and installation location of the power generation facility; and further comprising a second power generation prediction unit that calculates a predicted power generation value based on at least the latest weather forecast data and information including the actual power generation amount, power generation capacity, and installation location of the power generation facility, wherein the plan creation unit creates the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan based on the predicted power generation value calculated by the second power generation prediction unit.

7. The power plan creation system of claim 1, wherein the plan creation unit creates a power generation plan and / or a power sales plan based on information including the power generation forecast value, a future power purchase and sale price forecast value in the power trading market, and a future imbalance fee forecast value.

8. An electricity plan creation system as described in claim 1, comprising: an electricity purchase / sale price forecast value acquisition unit that acquires a future electricity purchase / sale price forecast value; and an imbalance fee forecast value acquisition unit that acquires a future imbalance fee forecast value, wherein the plan creation unit creates the power generation plan and / or the electricity sales plan based on information including a power generation forecast value, the acquired electricity purchase / sale price forecast value, and the acquired imbalance fee forecast value.

9. The power plan creation system of claim 1, comprising: an electricity buying and selling price prediction unit that calculates a predicted value of a future electricity buying and selling price; and an imbalance fee prediction unit that calculates a predicted value of a future imbalance fee, wherein the plan creation unit creates a power generation plan or an electricity sales plan based on the predicted power generation amount, the calculated electricity buying and selling price prediction value, and the calculated imbalance fee prediction value.

10. The power plan creation system according to claim 1, wherein the plan modification unit acquires information on the latest power generation plan and / or power sales plan created by the plan creation unit.

11. The power plan creation system according to claim 1, further comprising, instead of the plan change unit, a change input unit that accepts input of changes to the power generation plan and / or the power sales plan.

12. The power plan creation system according to claim 1 or 10, wherein the plan change unit and the change input unit are prohibited from changing the plan after the gate is closed.

13. The power plan creation system according to claim 1, wherein the plan creation unit creates a power generation plan based on plan creation and submission rules that are preset for each target power generation facility.

14. A power plan creation system as described in claim 1, further comprising a display data creation means for creating display data based on the power generation plan and / or power sales plan, wherein the display data displays the power generation plan and / or power sales plan in sections for each preset date and time, displays whether the power generation plan and / or power sales plan can be changed based on at least the gate close time, and displays which of the plan change section and the change input section is enabled for the power generation plan and / or power sales plan displayed in sections.

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