Weather prediction display system and weather prediction display method

Abstract

Provided are a weather prediction display system and a weather prediction display method that make it possible to easily utilize weather prediction results.　The present invention comprises: a server 20 (acquisition unit) that acquires prediction results for a plurality of ensemble members constituting ensemble prediction for a target location (dam 40) over a prescribed period; a server 20 (creation unit) that creates a heat map M1 in which the degrees of the prediction results are each indicated with coloring; and a server 20 (output unit) that causes a handler terminal 30 (prescribed output device) to output a rainfall amount prediction comparison chart 100 (weather prediction information) including the heat map M1.

Description

Weather forecast display system and weather forecast display method

[0001] The present invention relates to a weather forecast display system and a weather forecast display method.

[0002] Generally, the longer the forecast period, the greater the uncertainty in the weather forecast. In response to this, ensemble forecasts may be used, assuming that there is uncertainty in the forecast, by varying the initial values, etc., making multiple numerical forecasts under slightly different conditions, statistically processing the forecast results under each condition to calculate a probability density distribution of the forecast results, and thereby showing the overall (long-term) trend.

[0003] For example, Patent Literature 1 discloses a system that performs ensemble weather forecasting focusing on atmospheric optical thickness to obtain a predicted value of the amount of power generated by a solar power generation system together with its reliability based on a probability density distribution. This technology makes it possible to create a more suitable power trading plan by taking into account the uncertainty of the forecast.

[0004] However, the results of ensemble forecasts are often difficult to understand and utilize for people other than meteorological experts.

[0005] JP 2015-167439 A

[0006] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned circumstances, and the problem it aims to solve is to provide a weather forecast display system and a weather forecast display method that make it easy to utilize the results of weather forecasts.

[0007] The problem to be solved by the present invention is as described above, and the means for solving this problem will now be described.

[0008] In other words, the weather forecast display system of the present invention comprises an acquisition unit that acquires the forecast results of multiple ensemble members that make up the ensemble forecast for a specified period of time for a target location, a creation unit that creates a heat map that shows the degree of each of the multiple forecast results by color, and an output unit that outputs weather forecast information including the heat map to a specified output device.

[0009] In addition, in the heat map, the degrees of the multiple prediction results are shown side by side with their time axes aligned.

[0010] In addition, the acquisition unit acquires multiple prediction results for each specified timing, and the creation unit creates the heat map based on the multiple prediction results for each specified timing acquired by the acquisition unit, and the multiple heat maps are displayed with their time axes aligned and arranged in chronological order at the specified timing.

[0011] The weather forecast information also includes actual results for the ensemble forecast, and the actual results are displayed side by side with the time axes of the heat maps aligned with each other.

[0012] The heat map indicates the degree of the prediction result by varying the shade of color.

[0013] Moreover, the ensemble forecast is a rainfall forecast.

[0014] In claim 7, the target location includes a dam equipped with a hydroelectric power plant.

[0015] The weather forecast display method of the present invention includes an acquisition process for acquiring the forecast results of multiple ensemble members that make up an ensemble forecast for a specified period of time for a target location, a creation process for creating a heat map that shows the degree of each of the multiple forecast results by color, and an output process for outputting weather forecast information including the heat map to a specified output device.

[0016] The present invention has the following effects.

[0017] The present invention can provide a weather forecast display system and a weather forecast display method that make it easy to utilize the results of weather forecasts.

[0018] 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a weather forecast display system according to one embodiment of the present invention; FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a rainfall forecast display process (weather forecast display method) executed by a server; FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of a heat map for a certain day; (a) a first explanatory diagram for explaining the contents of a heat map; (b) a second explanatory diagram for the same; FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram for explaining the contents of an actual value map; FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a first example of a weather forecast comparison chart displayed on a staff member's terminal; (c) a diagram showing a second example of a weather forecast comparison chart displayed on a staff member's terminal; and (d) a diagram showing a third example of a weather forecast comparison chart displayed on a staff member's terminal.

[0019] A weather forecast display system 1 according to one embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to FIG.

[0020] The weather forecast display system 1 is for displaying the results of weather forecasts for a target location over a predetermined period of time. A weather forecast is a prediction of atmospheric conditions that combines weather-related elements such as temperature, humidity, wind, cloud cover, visibility, rain, snow, and lightning. In this embodiment, the target location is assumed to be a civil engineering structure (dam 40) equipped with a hydroelectric power plant, as described below. In this embodiment, the weather forecast is assumed to be a rainfall forecast that predicts the time period when rain will occur, the intensity of rainfall, etc.

[0021] Generally, the functions of a dam include power generation and flood control. In other words, a dam equipped with a hydroelectric power plant can generate electricity by releasing stored water downstream and taking advantage of the large drop in elevation. In addition, when rainwater flows into a dam due to heavy rain, the amount of water discharged can be adjusted to store a large amount of water, thereby preventing flood damage downstream.

[0022] When rainwater or other inflows due to heavy rain are stored in a dam, the amount of stored water increases significantly compared to normal times, so in preparation for the next heavy rain, the water is often released quickly (i.e., without going through power generation). However, if no heavy rain is expected for some time to come, releasing the water slowly (i.e., through power generation) allows for effective use of energy without wasting it. Therefore, in order to properly manage dam discharge, rainfall forecasts (weather forecasts) over a relatively long period (e.g., about two weeks) are required.

[0023] However, the longer the forecast period, the greater the uncertainty in the weather forecast. To address this issue, ensemble forecasts can be used, which assume uncertainty in the forecast, vary the initial values, etc., make multiple numerical forecasts under slightly different conditions, statistically process the forecast results under each condition, and calculate a probability density distribution of the forecast results, thereby showing the overall (long-term) trend.

[0024] For example, in the ensemble forecast provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the ensemble forecast is made up of 51 ensemble members, and the results of long-term rainfall forecasts are displayed at predetermined times. Specifically, the results of long-term rainfall forecasts are analyzed and organized by overlaying the results of 51 types of forecast calculations based on the ensemble members as cumulative rainfall.

[0025] However, with the above-mentioned methods (displays), it is often difficult for people other than meteorological experts to understand the results of rainfall forecasts, such as the period of rainfall, the intensity of rainfall, statistical significance, etc. In other words, the problem is that on-site personnel (non-meteorological experts) who manage dam discharges are unable to utilize the results of rainfall forecasts, making it difficult to manage dam discharges.

[0026] In contrast, the weather forecast display system 1 according to this embodiment displays the results of the rainfall forecast in a different way from the conventional method. Specifically, the weather forecast display system 1 displays the results of the rainfall forecast in a rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 (see FIG. 6 , etc.), which will be described later. In this way, the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 makes it easy for even on-site personnel (people who are not weather experts) to intuitively understand the results of the rainfall forecast.

[0027] As shown in Figure 1, in this embodiment, the weather forecast display system 1 is used by a management company that manages a dam 40. The weather forecast display system 1 mainly includes a weather information providing device 10, a server 20, and a staff terminal 30.

[0028] The weather information providing device 10 provides weather information published by the Japan Meteorological Agency to the outside. The latest weather information is published in the weather information providing device 10 at fixed times every day (such as 9:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m.). The weather information includes rainfall forecast results. The weather information providing device 10 is configured as a cloud server (strictly speaking, a server virtually constructed within a cloud server). The weather information providing device 10 is operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency, a specified weather information provider, or the like. The weather information providing device 10 is configured to be able to communicate with external devices via an Internet line. Communication with the weather information providing device 10 requires access authority, and only devices with access authority are allowed to communicate.

[0029] The server 20 performs various processes related to the display of weather forecasts. The server 20 has a computing device capable of executing computational processes and a storage device in which programs and the like are stored. The server 20 is configured as a cloud server. The server 20 has access authority to the weather information providing device 10 and is configured to be able to communicate with the weather information providing device 10 via an Internet line. In this way, the server 20 can obtain any weather information from the weather information providing device 10. In this embodiment, the server 20 obtains the latest rainfall forecast results for the target location (dam 40) once a day at 9:00 a.m.

[0030] The server 20 also performs various processes based on the obtained rainfall prediction results. The processes performed by the server 20 include a process for displaying the results of the rainfall prediction for the dam 40 using a method different from the conventional method (hereinafter referred to as a "rainfall prediction display process"). In the rainfall prediction display process, a rainfall prediction comparison chart 100 (see FIG. 6, etc.) is created to display the results of the rainfall prediction for the dam 40. The rainfall prediction display process will be described in detail later.

[0031] The staff terminal 30 is a terminal used by the on-site staff H of the management company. The staff terminal 30 has a calculation device capable of executing calculation processing, a storage device in which programs and the like are stored, an operation unit that can be operated by the on-site staff H, and a display unit that can display (output) predetermined information. The staff terminal 30 is configured, for example, by a smartphone or a personal computer. The staff terminal 30 is configured to be able to communicate with the server 20 via an internet line. A rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 is displayed (output) on the display unit of the staff terminal 30 by the rainfall forecast display process of the server 20.

[0032] The rainfall forecast display process executed by the server 20 will be described below with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG. 2 and FIGS. 3 to 8. FIG.

[0033] 2 is a flowchart showing a rainfall forecast display process (rainfall forecast display method) executed by the server 20. The rainfall forecast display process is a process for creating a rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 as a result of rainfall forecasting and displaying it on the staff terminal 30. The rainfall forecast display process is executed periodically at a predetermined timing by the server 20. In this embodiment, the rainfall forecast display process is executed once a day when the latest weather information is released from the weather information providing device 10 (for example, at 9:00 a.m.). The rainfall forecast display process may also be executed in response to an operation on the staff terminal 30 by the on-site staff H.

[0034] In the following, for convenience, explanations are given using (visible) explanatory diagrams, etc., but in the processing of the server 20, it is not necessary for anything other than what is displayed (output) on the person in charge terminal 30 (the deliverables) to be created in a visible state.

[0035] In step S11, the server 20 obtains the latest rainfall forecast results (information) from the weather information providing device 10. Specifically, the server 20 obtains the ensemble forecast for a total of 11 days, including the current day of the dam 40, as the latest rainfall forecast results, and extracts the forecast results of the 51 ensemble members that make up the ensemble forecast. Note that the 51 ensemble members are each assigned a number for convenience. After processing step S11, the server 20 executes processing step S12.

[0036] In step S12, the server 20 creates a heat map M1 based on the latest rainfall forecast result (information) acquired in step S11. The server 20 creates one heat map M1 every day. The contents of the heat map M1 will be described below with reference to FIGS. 3 and 4.

[0037] The heat map M1 shows the results of the rainfall forecast (specifically, the predicted level of rainfall) using shades of color. The heat map M1 is created based on the forecast results of 51 types of ensemble members obtained on the day. As shown in FIG. 3 , the heat map M1 shows the predicted level of rainfall (i.e., rainfall intensity) over a period from approximately the present time (9:00 AM on the day) to midnight 10 days from now using shades of color as described above. In this embodiment, the shades of color are expressed using shades of a single color (blue-based colors).

[0038] 4 is an explanatory diagram for explaining the contents of the heat map M1, and the configuration of the heat map M1 is simplified. Specifically, in FIG. 4, six types of ensemble members are used to create the heat map M1. Also, FIG. 4(a) shows only the current day (part of the heat map M1) for the period from the current day to 10 days later.

[0039] In the explanation using FIG. 4 , there are four shades of color indicating the intensity of rainfall. That is, the predicted rainfall amount is divided into four ranges (stages) based on the magnitude of the value. Specifically, the range with the highest (very high) predicted rainfall amount is indicated by the darkest color (hereinafter referred to as the "first color C1"), the range with the second highest (fairly high) predicted rainfall amount is indicated by the second darkest color (hereinafter referred to as the "second color C2"), the range with the third highest (not very high) predicted rainfall amount is indicated by the third darkest color (hereinafter referred to as the "third color C3"), and the range with the fourth highest (lowest) predicted rainfall amount is indicated by the fourth darkest (lightest) color (hereinafter referred to as the "fourth color C4"). Note that areas with no rainfall amount are not colored (white). Thus, as shown in FIG. 4A, the magnitude relationship of the predicted rainfall amounts is expressed as the first color C1>second color C2>third color C3>fourth color C4>white.

[0040] As shown in FIG. 4A, in the heat map M1, the prediction results of all (six types) of ensemble members are arranged in order on the vertical axis. As described above, the ensemble members are assigned numbers, and the prediction results of the ensemble members are arranged in the order of those numbers. The order of the ensemble members is not particularly specified, but once determined, it will not be changed. In other words, in the heat map M1 created every day, the six types of ensemble members will be arranged in the same order.

[0041] The horizontal axis of the heat map M1 represents the time from midnight to midnight. In this way, the forecast results (predicted rainfall amounts) of each ensemble member are arranged side by side with their time axes (phases) aligned (their positions along the horizontal axis are aligned).

[0042] Thus, as shown in FIG. 4A, in the heat map M1, the forecast results of each ensemble member are displayed using different shades of color for each hour from 9:00 a.m. onward. For example, in the forecast results of the first ensemble member in the top row, the third color C3 is displayed from 9:00 a.m. to around 3:00 p.m., and the second color C2 is displayed thereafter until midnight. That is, the forecast results of the first ensemble member indicate that the amount of rainfall will be moderate from 9:00 a.m. to around 3:00 p.m., and will increase moderately from around 3:00 p.m. to midnight. Similarly, the forecast results of the second ensemble member in the second row from the top indicate that the amount of rainfall will be low from 9:00 a.m. to just before 12:00 p.m., then moderately heavy until around 9:00 p.m., and then very heavy until midnight. The forecast results of the other ensemble members are displayed in a similar manner.

[0043] Note that while Fig. 4(a) illustrates only a portion of the heat map M1 (for the current day), the following days (for one day to ten days later) are also created in the same manner. Specifically, as shown in Fig. 4(b), the heat map M1 for the current day to ten days later is arranged contiguously from left to right in order of earliest date. Thus, as shown in Fig. 3, in the heat map M1, the prediction results for 11 days are arranged contiguously along the horizontal axis, for the current day, the next day, the day after, and so on.

[0044] In this way, the server 20 creates a heat map M1 such as that shown in Figure 3 once a day. Note that in the unsimplified heat map M1 shown in Figure 3, more shades of color indicating the intensity of rainfall are used than the four shades shown in Figure 4. Note that the shades of color may not be gradated but may change continuously without any steps. The server 20 stores the created heat map M1 in its own storage device.

[0045] According to the heat map M1, even if the forecast results of each ensemble member for a certain time period differ from one another, the overall trend of the forecast results can be grasped at a glance by the shade of the color. In other words, by looking at the entire heat map M1, in which the intensity of rainfall is expressed by the shade of the color, the field worker H can understand at a glance the statistical amount of future forecast results.

[0046] Specifically, the heat map M1 allows the on-site worker H to see, for example, changes in the uncertainty of the rainfall forecast and the agreement between the predicted rainfall and the actual value. Thus, the heat map M1 allows the on-site worker H to intuitively grasp the results of the rainfall forecast for the next 10 days. For example, in the period P1 shown in FIG. 3, the overall color is darker, and it can be seen that the phases of the darker areas are consistent. In other words, in the period P1, the on-site worker H can see that the rainfall is predicted to be high and the uncertainty of the forecast is small.

[0047] 3, for example, the overall coloring is fairly dark, but the phases of the dark areas are not aligned, and variations can be seen. That is, for period P2, the site worker H can see that although a fairly large amount of rainfall is predicted, there is a large degree of uncertainty in the prediction. After processing step S12, the server 20 executes processing step S13.

[0048] In step S13, the server 20 creates an actual value map M2. The actual value map M2 indicates actual values ​​of rainfall at the dam 40 over a predetermined period of time in the past. In other words, in this embodiment, actual values ​​are values ​​related to unamble predictions (rainfall predictions) and refer to the amount of rain that actually fell. First, the server 20 acquires actual values ​​of rainfall at the dam 40 over the most recent 24 hours by communicating with the weather information providing device 10. The server 20 stores the acquired actual values ​​in its own storage device. In other words, the server 20 stores actual values ​​of rainfall at the dam 40 over a predetermined period of time in the past. Note that the method for acquiring actual values ​​of rainfall is not limited to the method described above. For example, the server 20 may calculate actual values ​​of rainfall itself based on predetermined information.

[0049] Fig. 5 is an explanatory diagram for explaining the contents of the performance value map M2. In Fig. 5, the configuration of the performance value map M2 is simplified, similar to the explanatory diagram for explaining the contents of the heat map M1 shown in Fig. 4. Fig. 5 also shows the performance value map M2 for one day (a part of the performance value map M2).

[0050] As shown in Figures 5 and 6, the actual value map M2 has substantially the same format as the heat map M1. Specifically, the vertical axis of the actual value map M2 is substantially the same as that of the heat map M1. The horizontal axis of the actual value map M2 is aligned with the horizontal axis of the heat map M1 so that their time axes (phases) are synchronized. Similarly to the heat map M1, the actual rainfall values ​​of the actual value map M2 are displayed using shades of color indicating the intensity of rainfall. The actual value map M2 also displays more detailed rainfall values ​​using bar graphs overlaid on the above-described shades of color. The bar graphs are formed so that only the frame portion stands out and the interior portion is inconspicuous, for example, so as not to obstruct the visibility of the shades of color. After processing step S13, the server 20 executes step S14.

[0051] In step S14, the server 20 creates a rainfall forecast comparison chart 100. The contents of the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 will be described below with reference to FIGS.

[0052] The rainfall forecast comparison diagram 100 displays one or more time-series forecast results of rainfall and actual time-series rainfall data for comparison. In this embodiment, the rainfall forecast comparison diagram 100 displays a heat map M1 created for the current day, a heat map M1 created in the past, and an actual value map M2, arranged side by side. As shown in FIGS. 6 and 7 , in this embodiment, heat maps M1 for the past 10 days are used as the previously created heat maps M1. In other words, in this embodiment, the rainfall forecast comparison diagram 100 displays heat maps M1 (forecast results for multiple time-series rainfall data) for a total of 11 days, including the current day and the past 10 days.

[0053] In the rainfall forecast comparison diagram 100, 11-day heat maps M1 are arranged from top to bottom in chronological order, starting with the oldest created date. That is, the 11-day heat maps M1 are arranged in chronological order according to the timing of the forecast. The 11-day heat maps M1 are arranged in close proximity to each other along the vertical axis. The 11-day heat maps M1 are also arranged so that their time axes (phases) are aligned (their positions along the horizontal axis are aligned). In this way, in the rainfall forecast comparison diagram 100, forecast results for a total of 21 days are arranged along the horizontal axis, from the oldest forecast result from 10 days ago to the most recent forecast result from 10 days into the future.

[0054] Additionally, below the bottom row of the 11-day heat map M1 (i.e., the heat map M1 for the current day), an actual value map M2 (time-series actual rainfall amounts) is arranged. The actual value map M2 is arranged next to the 11-day heat map M1 with their time axes (phases) aligned.

[0055] In this way, the server 20 creates a rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 such as that shown in Figures 6 and 7 once a day. According to the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100, even if the forecast results of each heat map M1 for a certain time period differ from one another, the overall trend of the forecast results can be grasped at a glance by the shade of the color. In other words, the on-site worker H can understand at a glance the statistical amount of future forecast results by looking at the entire rainfall forecast comparison chart 100, in which the intensity of rainfall is expressed by the shade of the color.

[0056] Specifically, the rainfall forecast comparison diagram 100 allows the site worker H to view, for example, changes in the uncertainty of rainfall forecasts and the degree of agreement between the predicted rainfall and its actual value. For example, in the first example of the rainfall forecast comparison diagram 100 shown in Figure 6, the site worker H can easily understand that heavy rain is predicted to occur in period P11 about five days in advance. Also, in the second example of the rainfall forecast comparison diagram 100 shown in Figure 7, the site worker H can easily understand that heavy rain is predicted to occur in period P12 about six days in advance.

[0057] 6 and 7, the site worker H can easily understand the accuracy and trend of the forecast results by comparing the results of the rainfall forecast with the actual rainfall values. In this way, the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 makes it possible to visualize the degree of variation in the forecast results. After the process of step S14, the server 20 executes the process of step S15.

[0058] In step S15, the server 20 transmits the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 created in step S14 to the person in charge terminal 30. In this way, the site person H can visually confirm the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 by displaying the received rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 on the display unit. That is, the site person H can intuitively understand the results of the rainfall forecast from the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100. In this way, the site person H can utilize the results of the rainfall forecast, and ultimately perform appropriate discharge management of the dam 40.

[0059] As described above, the weather forecast display system 1 according to one embodiment of the present invention comprises a server 20 (acquisition unit) that acquires the forecast results of multiple ensemble members that make up the ensemble forecast for a specified period of time for a target location (dam 40), a server 20 (creation unit) that creates a heat map M1 that indicates the degree of each of the multiple forecast results by color, and a server 20 (output unit) that outputs a rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 (weather forecast information) including the heat map M1 to a staff terminal 30 (specified output device).

[0060] In addition, a weather forecast display method according to one embodiment of the present invention includes an acquisition process (step S11 shown in FIG. 2) for acquiring the forecast results of multiple ensemble members that make up the ensemble forecast for a specified period of time for a target location (dam 40); a server 20 (step S12 shown in FIG. 2) for creating a heat map M1 in which the degree of each of the multiple forecast results is indicated by color; and the server 20 (step S15 shown in FIG. 2) for outputting a rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 (weather forecast information) including the heat map M1 to a staff terminal 30 (specified output device).

[0061] This configuration makes it easier to utilize the results of weather forecasts. That is, the forecast results of multiple ensemble members obtained from the ensemble forecast can be visualized and presented so that the field worker H can easily understand the expected time period for heavy rainfall, its statistical positioning, and the time period when the next rainfall is expected. Furthermore, it is possible to show that the forecast uncertainty decreases as the time period when rainfall is expected approaches. That is, it is possible to visualize and present the change in forecast uncertainty.

[0062] In addition, in the weather forecast display system 1, the degrees of the multiple forecast results are displayed in the heat map M1 so that their time axes are aligned.

[0063] With this configuration, the prediction results can be visualized and represented in a manner that is easy for the field staff H to understand by showing the overall coloring shade trend of multiple results (prediction results of ensemble members) in the heat map M1.

[0064] In addition, in the weather forecast display system 1, the server 20 (acquisition unit) acquires multiple prediction results for each specified timing, the creation unit creates the heat map M1 based on the multiple prediction results for each specified timing acquired by the server 20 (acquisition unit), and the multiple heat maps M1 are displayed with their time axes aligned and arranged in chronological order at the specified timing.

[0065] With this configuration, the rainfall forecast comparison diagram 100 can visualize and present the forecast results in a manner that is easy for the field staff H to understand, based on the overall coloring shade trends of the multiple heat maps M1.

[0066] In addition, in the weather forecast display system 1, the weather forecast information includes actual values ​​related to the ensemble forecast, and the actual values ​​are displayed side by side with the time axes of the multiple heat maps M1 aligned with each other.

[0067] With this configuration, it is possible to view, for example, changes in the uncertainty of rainfall predictions and the agreement between predicted rainfall and its actual values.

[0068] With this configuration, it is possible to easily utilize the results of weather forecasting using, for example, 51 types of ensemble members provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

[0069] In addition, in the weather forecast display system 1, the heat map M1 indicates the degree of the forecast result by varying the shade of color.

[0070] This configuration allows the results of weather forecasts to be used more efficiently using the shade of color.

[0071] In addition, in the weather forecast display system 1, the ensemble forecast is a rainfall forecast.

[0072] This configuration makes it easier to utilize the results of rainfall prediction.

[0073] In addition, in the weather forecast display system 1, the target location (dam 40) includes a dam 40 equipped with a hydroelectric power plant.

[0074] With this configuration, discharge management of the dam 40 can be carried out appropriately.

[0075] The rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 according to this embodiment is one embodiment of weather forecast information according to the present invention. The person in charge terminal 30 according to this embodiment is one embodiment of an output unit according to the present invention.

[0076] Although the embodiment of the present invention has been described above, the present invention is not limited to the above configuration, and various modifications are possible within the scope of the invention described in the claims.

[0077] For example, in the present embodiment, the weather forecast display system 1 is used to predict rainfall, but the present invention is not limited to this. The weather forecast display system 1 can be used to predict various weather conditions, such as snowfall and solar radiation.

[0078] In addition, in this embodiment, the dam 40 is used as an example of the target location, but the target location is not limited to this. Any location, such as an urban area or a mountainous area, can be used as the target location.

[0079] In this embodiment, the rainfall forecast display process (weather forecast display method) is executed by the server 20, but it may also be executed by another server (control device). For example, the rainfall forecast display process may be executed by the person in charge terminal 30, or may be executed by multiple different control devices. The content and procedures of the rainfall forecast display process may be changed as desired. Furthermore, part or all of the rainfall forecast display process (weather forecast display method) may be executed by a person, rather than by the server 20.

[0080] For example, in this embodiment, the predetermined output device is configured to be displayed on the person in charge terminal 30 (more specifically, the display unit of the person in charge terminal 30), but this is not limiting. That is, the predetermined output device may be a device that outputs (prints out) written documents rather than video or audio. Similarly, the form of output is not limited to display, and various forms can be adopted as long as they are recognizable by the on-site person in charge H.

[0081] Furthermore, in this embodiment, the intensity of rainfall is expressed by the shade of a single color (same color family), but it may also be expressed by a gradation of multiple colors (including other colors).

[0082] Although the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 has been used as an example of weather forecast information according to the present invention, the present invention is not limited to this. For example, the weather forecast information may include only the heat map M1 (see FIG. 3) for the current day, and may not necessarily include a heat map M1 created in the past. Similarly, it may not necessarily include actual rainfall values ​​(actual value map M2). The heat map M1 does not need to be created once a day, but may be created any number of times at any time.

[0083] In this embodiment, the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 uses the heat map M1 for the past 10 days, but the number of past days can be selected as desired. For example, as in the third example of the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 shown in Figure 8, the heat map M1 for the past 18 days may be used. Furthermore, as in the third example of the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100, the heat map M1 can use the forecast results of the ensemble members over any period (e.g., a total of 19 days including the current day) rather than a total of 11 days including the current day.

[0084] Thus, for example, in the third example of the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 shown in FIG. 8 , it can be seen that in the period P21, from 18 days to 12 days in advance, the variance in the forecast is very large, making it difficult to determine whether or not rain will fall. Furthermore, in the period P22, from 11 days to 6 days in advance, the uncertainty in the forecast is high, but it is possible to determine whether or not rain will fall. Furthermore, in the period P23, from 5 days to 1 day in advance, the uncertainty in the forecast is low, making it possible to predict heavy rain in advance. In other words, in the third example of the rainfall forecast comparison chart 100 (an example with a longer period), more accurate forecast information can be obtained as the time approaches the present time, and more general forecast information can be obtained, although the accuracy decreases as the time moves away from the present time. In this way, changes in forecast uncertainty can be visualized and represented.

[0085] The present invention can be applied to a weather forecast display system and a weather forecast display method.

[0086] 1 Weather forecast display system 20 Server 30 Personnel terminal 40 Dam 100 Rainfall forecast comparison chart

Claims

1. A weather forecast display system comprising: an acquisition unit that acquires forecast results of multiple ensemble members that make up an ensemble forecast for a specified period of time for a target location; a creation unit that creates a heat map that indicates the degree of each of the multiple forecast results by color; and an output unit that outputs weather forecast information including the heat map to a specified output device.

2. The weather forecast display system according to claim 1, wherein in the heat map, the degrees of the multiple forecast results are displayed side by side with their time axes aligned.

3. The weather forecast display system of claim 2, wherein the acquisition unit acquires multiple prediction results for each specified timing, the creation unit creates the heat map based on the multiple prediction results for each specified timing acquired by the acquisition unit, and the multiple heat maps are displayed with their time axes aligned and arranged in chronological order at the specified timing.

4. The weather forecast display system of claim 3, wherein the weather forecast information includes actual values ​​relating to the ensemble forecast, and the actual values ​​are displayed side by side with the time axes of the multiple heat maps aligned with each other.

5. The weather forecast display system of claim 1, wherein the heat map indicates the degree of the forecast result by varying the shade of color.

6. The weather forecast display system according to claim 1, wherein the ensemble forecast is a rainfall forecast.

7. The weather forecast display system according to claim 1, wherein the target location includes a dam equipped with a hydroelectric power plant.

8. A weather forecast display method comprising: an acquisition step of acquiring forecast results of multiple ensemble members that constitute an ensemble forecast for a specified period of time for a target location; a creation step of creating a heat map that indicates the degree of each of the multiple forecast results by color; and an output step of outputting weather forecast information including the heat map to a specified output device.

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