Technology valuation method specialized for research and development technology and apparatus therefor

Abstract

The present invention relates to a technology valuation method specialized for research and development technology and an apparatus therefor, which enable fair technology valuation to be performed by appropriately applying risk factors according to technology research and development activities. The technology valuation method specialized for research and development technology, according to the present invention, is provided to perform a fair valuation of research and development technology by calculating a technology value with respect to technology being researched and developed, by calculating: a net present value of total sales (a) from the first year to an expected product life cycle period (n); a risk-adjusted net present value of research and development costs (b) from the first year to a research and development completion year (k); a cost (c) required for sales creation after research and development activities from a research and development completion year (k +1) to the expected product life cycle period (n); and a residual value (d) after a product life cycle (PLC) is terminated, subtracting the risk-adjusted net present value (b) and the cost (c) required for sales creation after the research and development activities from the calculated net present value of total sales (a), and then adding the residual value (d).

Description

Technology valuation method and device specialized in research and development technology

[0001] The present invention relates to a technology valuation method and a device thereof, and more particularly, to a technology valuation method and a device thereof specialized in research and development technology that enable a fair technology valuation by appropriately applying risk factors resulting from technology research and development activities.

[0002] With recent rapid technological advancements, the importance of technological research and development (R&D) is growing. Figure 1 illustrates a typical R&D process. Research and development (hereinafter referred to as "R&D") is structured around seven stages: new product strategy, idea generation, review and evaluation, business analysis, design and development, testing, and commercialization. It can also be categorized into five stages: ideation, evaluation and analysis, development and testing, and commercialization.

[0003] The cost of developing new products tends to increase exponentially over time (Buggie, FD, 2002). While the success of innovative commercialization is strategically important for companies, such R&D activities are estimated to require approximately 3,000 unique ideas and carry an inherent uncertainty of 30-95% (Cooper & Edgett, 2008).

[0004] In this way, the possibility of failure due to uncertainty in R&D activities is called risk, and the biotechnology industry is one of the industries with the highest R&D risks. For example, in new drug development, only one out of approximately 5,000 to 10,000 candidate substances is commercialized, and only one out of three commercialized products recovers its R&D costs (Standard & Poor's Industry Survey, 2008). Furthermore, new drug development requires a long time of over 10 years, massive R&D investment, and clinical trials before launch. However, successful R&D commercialization can secure a monopoly for many years, resulting in profit. Therefore, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries are representative examples of high-risk, high-return industries that exhibit significant R&D risk.

[0005] As such, corporate technology development carries enormous inherent uncertainty, making investor and managerial decisions crucial to a company's future. To support these decisions, a basis for assessing the value of a technology is essential. Technology appraisal involves comprehensively assessing the value of a technology based on factors such as technological capability, marketability, and business viability, and expressing the results in monetary terms, ratings, or opinions. One type of technology appraisal involves assessing the economic value of a technology, either commercialized or already commercialized, based on generally accepted valuation principles and methodologies in the technology market. This valuation is then quantified into a monetary value.

[0006] Technology valuation is often intangible or intangible. This is because, first, it is often implemented as knowledge or physical assets, making it difficult to accurately determine its content and scope. Second, the economic value of a technology is influenced by various non-technical factors and is only realized after commercialization. Third, because valuations are transacted in the technology supplier market, it is difficult to reach a balanced price through market mechanisms. Therefore, a tangible and tangible approach to technology valuation is necessary. Currently, technology valuation methods are broadly categorized into three approaches based on their purpose: the income approach, the cost approach, and the market approach.

[0007] The income approach is a future-focused valuation method. It evaluates the future cash flows generated by utilizing the technology being evaluated by converting them into present value. Once the technology asset being evaluated is commercialized through product application, the future cash flows are discounted at a predetermined rate, resulting in a present value calculation. This value serves as the basis for the technology's valuation. However, the subjective nature of the process of predicting the future income generated by the technology being evaluated presents a limitation.

[0008] The cost approach is a historical valuation method that assesses the value of a technology from the perspective of reproduction cost or replacement cost. In other words, it estimates the value of a technology based on the cost of developing a similar technology with the same functionality. This cost approach has very limited applicability because it measures the value of a technology based on historical costs, not its potential to generate wealth. This approach requires accurate cost data and depreciation.

[0009] The market approach assesses the value of the technology under evaluation by referencing transaction prices of similar technologies in related industries, and by assessing the value of the technology asset based on the prices of comparable assets exchanged voluntarily. While the theoretical basis for this market approach is sound, its applicability is significantly limited due to the scarcity of active markets with readily available public information, prices, and comparability.

[0010] [Prior Art Literature]

[0011] (Patent Document 1) Republic of Korea Patent Publication No. 10-2018679 (Registered on August 30, 2019)

[0012] (Patent Document 2) Republic of Korea Patent Publication No. 10-2019-0008483 (Published on January 24, 2019)

[0013] As mentioned above, the income approach, cost approach, and market approach, currently the most commonly used technology valuation methods, all suffer from limitations due to their limited scope of application. The present invention was proposed to overcome these limitations in conventional technology valuation methods. The purpose of the present invention is to provide a technology valuation method and device specialized for R&D technologies that enables a fair valuation of technology by appropriately accounting for risks arising from R&D activities.

[0014] In order to achieve the above purpose, the technology valuation method specialized in research and development technology according to the present invention is a method for evaluating the technology value of research and development (R&D) technology, wherein, for a technology under research and development, the net present value (a) of total sales from the first year to the expected product life cycle period (n), the risk-adjusted net present value (b) of research and development costs from the first year to the year of completion of research and development (k), the cost (c) required to generate sales after research and development activities from the year after the completion of research and development to the expected product life cycle period (n), and the residual value (d) after the end of the product life cycle (PLC) are calculated, and then the risk-adjusted net present value (b) and the cost (c) required to generate sales after research and development activities are subtracted from the calculated net present value of total sales (a), and the residual value (d) is added to calculate the technology value.

[0015] Here, the risk-adjusted net present value (b) is calculated using the following mathematical formula 3.

[0016] [Equation 3]

[0017]

[0018] In the above mathematical expression 3, t is the year (year), k is the year of completion of research and development (R&D), r is the discount rate, RCt is the research and development cost incurred in year t, and PCt is the cumulative success probability incurred in year t, which is calculated by multiplying the cumulative success probability up to the previous R&D stage (PCp) and the R&D success probability of the current stage (PSc) (PCt = PCp × PSc).

[0019] Meanwhile, a technology valuation device specialized in research and development technology according to the present invention for achieving the above purpose is a device for evaluating the technology value of research and development (R&D) technology, comprising: an evaluation data generating unit for generating evaluation data including an expected product life cycle period (n) for a technology under research and development, annual sales (St), a discount rate (r), a year of completion of research and development (k), annual research and development costs (RCt), annual cumulative success probability (PCt), input costs for sales generated per year (ICt), annual depreciation expenses (DAt), and a salvage value (RV); The technology value evaluation unit calculates the net present value (a) of total sales from the first year to the expected product life cycle period (n), the risk-adjusted net present value (b) of research and development costs from the first year to the year of completion of research and development (k), the cost (c) required to generate sales after research and development activities from the year after the year of completion of research and development to the expected product life cycle period (n), and the residual value (d) after the end of the product life cycle (PLC), and then subtracts the risk-adjusted net present value (b) and the cost (c) required to generate sales after research and development activities from the calculated total sales net present value (a), and then adds the residual value (d) to calculate the technology value.

[0020] In the above technical value assessment section, the risk-adjusted net present value (b) is calculated using the following mathematical formula 3:

[0021] [Equation 3]

[0022]

[0023] In the above mathematical expression 3, t is the year (year), k is the year of completion of research and development (R&D), r is the discount rate, RCt is the research and development cost incurred in year t, and PCt is the cumulative success probability incurred in year t, which is calculated by multiplying the cumulative success probability up to the previous R&D stage (PCp) and the R&D success probability of the current stage (PSc) (PCt = PCp × PSc).

[0024] The present invention applies the risk of R&D failure, considers cost data and depreciation associated with R&D, and assesses technology value by referencing the market value of similar technologies. This overcomes the limitations of basing valuations on past costs and enables more accurate valuations. Consequently, it can support investors and companies in making more prudent assessments when making investment or technology agreement decisions.

[0025] Figure 1 is a flowchart showing a conventional general technology research and development process.

[0026] Figure 2 is a flowchart illustrating a technology value assessment procedure according to the present invention.

[0027] Figure 3 is a network connection diagram of a technology value assessment device according to the present invention.

[0028] Figure 4 is a block diagram of a technology value assessment device according to the present invention.

[0029] Figure 5 shows an example of a graph comparing the technology value assessment result according to the present invention with the existing NPV method.

[0030] Hereinafter, a preferred embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the attached drawings.

[0031]

[0032] The present invention proposes a technology valuation method specialized for technologies under research and development. To this end, the present invention improves on the shortcomings of the income approach, cost approach, and market approach, and integrates them into a tangible and visible technology valuation model. The technology valuation model according to the present invention determines technology value by estimating cash flow estimation periods for technologies under research and development, annual cash flows, industry-specific variables that act as success probabilities, input costs for sales generation, depreciation expenses, and salvage values.

[0033] The technology value assessment model proposed in the present invention is as follows: Mathematical Formula 1.

[0034] [Mathematical Formula 1]

[0035]

[0036]

[0037] The technology valuation model of the above mathematical formula 1 is explained as follows.

[0038] (a) Net present value of total sales

[0039] [Equation 2]

[0040]

[0041] Equation 2 above represents the net present value of total sales generated through R&D technology from the first year of the evaluation period to the expected product life cycle (n). To assess the value of R&D technology, it is necessary to convert the annual total sales into present value. R&D technology sales must be estimated based on current sales volume for similar indications. This estimation process takes into account factors such as market share, sales volume, and patent expiration.

[0042]

[0043] (b) Risk-adjusted net present value of research and development costs

[0044] [Equation 3]

[0045]

[0046] Equation 3 represents the risk-adjusted net present value of R&D costs from the first year to the year of R&D completion (k). In the R&D technology field, R&D activities proceed through several R&D stages, each with its own probability of success. Therefore, it is essential to calculate risk using the cumulative success probability of each R&D stage over the R&D period (k). The cost reflecting the risk at each R&D stage can be expressed as "RCt(2-PCt)", where "RCt" represents the R&D cost, and the cumulative success probability "PCt" represents the cumulative success probability of the corresponding R&D stage. The cumulative success probability (PCt) is calculated by multiplying the cumulative success probability (PCp) up to the previous R&D stage by the R&D success probability (PSc) of the current stage (PCt = PCp × PSc). Furthermore, it is essential to convert the sum of the risk-adjusted costs over the entire R&D period into a present value. This conversion allows risk to be applied to technological R&D activities using Equation 2.

[0047]

[0048] (c) Costs required to generate sales after research and development activities

[0049] [Equation 4]

[0050]

[0051] Equation 4 represents the cost of generating revenue after R&D activities, from the year after the R&D completion (k+1) to the estimated product life cycle (n). To ensure a fair valuation of the technological assets of R&D technologies, it is crucial to consider the annual cost of generating revenue after the completion of R&D activities. Therefore, input costs (ICt) from the end of the R&D phase (k+1) to the estimated product life cycle (PLC) period (n) are deducted. Depreciation and amortization (DAt) should be factored into the R&D technology valuation, and these costs are also converted to present value.

[0052]

[0053] (d) salvage value

[0054] [Equation 5]

[0055]

[0056] Mathematical Equation 5 represents the residual value after the end of the product life cycle (PLC). When the PLC of an R&D technology ends, the residual value (RV) of its tangible and intangible assets must be included in the R&D technology evaluation. Therefore, the residual value of the tangible and intangible assets of the R&D technology is calculated at the end of the final year of the PLC and converted to present value.

[0057]

[0058] The technology valuation model of mathematical formula 1 presented in the present invention calculates the technology value by subtracting the risk-adjusted net present value of research and development costs (mathematical formula 3) from the net present value of total sales from the first year to the expected product life cycle period (n) (mathematical formula 2) from the first year to the year of completion of research and development (k), subtracting the cost required to generate sales after research and development activities (mathematical formula 4) from the year after the completion of research and development to the expected product life cycle period (n), and adding the residual value (mathematical formula 5) after the end of the product life cycle (PLC).

[0059] In this way, if the technology valuation model presented in the present invention through mathematical formula 1 can be expressed in terms of present value by considering factors such as final sales, risk-adjusted research and development costs, costs incurred in sales after research and development activities, and residual value of the previous year, a fair valuation of research and development technology can be performed through this.

[0060]

[0061] Below, a technology valuation device to which a technology valuation model specialized for research and development technology according to the present invention is applied is described.

[0062]

[0063] Figure 2 is a flowchart illustrating a technology value assessment procedure according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0064] As illustrated in Figure 2, the technology valuation according to the present invention follows the process of industry-specific evaluation factors analysis, technology economic life estimation, cash flow estimation, and technology value determination. That is, in order to conduct a technology valuation specialized for a technology under research and development, the present invention analyzes industry-specific evaluation factors by using the probability of R&D success as a risk adjustment variable in addition to analysis of technology, marketability, business feasibility, and rights, and then estimates the technology economic life, and determines the technology value by estimating cash flows through sales estimation, cost and industry-specific risk adjustment, sales generation input costs and depreciation estimation, and residual value estimation.

[0065]

[0066] Figure 3 illustrates a network connection diagram of a technology value assessment device according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0067] As illustrated in FIG. 3, the technology value assessment device (100) according to the present invention is connected to a user terminal (200) through a network to transmit and receive data.

[0068] The above user terminal (200) is a user computer that is connected to a technology valuation device (100) via a network, requests a technology valuation from the technology valuation device (100), provides data for the technology valuation, and receives the technology valuation results. This user computer may be a computer device equipped with communication functions, such as a PC, laptop, PDA, or smartphone.

[0069] The above technology value assessment device (100) is a server computer that specializes in research and development technology and calculates and evaluates technology value. This technology value assessment device (100) calculates technology value upon request from a user terminal (200) or input from an administrator and provides the calculated technology value to the user terminal (200) or the administrator. The technology value assessment device (100) requests and receives information for technology assessment from the user terminal (200) for technology assessment, analyzes the information, calculates technology value, and derives an assessment result. The technology value assessment device (100) may be connected to an external device through a network for technology assessment and may receive data for technology assessment from the external device.

[0070]

[0071] Figure 4 shows a block diagram of a technology value assessment device according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0072] As illustrated in FIG. 4, the technology valuation device (100) according to the present invention includes an evaluation data input unit (110) for inputting evaluation data for valuation of a technology under research and development, an evaluation data output unit (120) for estimating evaluation factors through the evaluation data input through the evaluation data input unit (110), a technology valuation unit (130) for evaluating the technology value through the evaluation factors output through the evaluation data output unit (120), and a database (140) for storing and managing data for technology valuation. In addition, the technology valuation device (100) includes a typical computer configuration that performs functions such as inputting, processing, and outputting data, and for example, is provided with input devices such as a keyboard or mouse, output devices such as a monitor, communication devices for network connection, a microprocessor for data processing, and memory devices such as RAM or ROM. Since these configurations follow known configurations, a detailed description thereof will be omitted.

[0073] The above evaluation data input unit (110) is a program module for inputting evaluation data so as to estimate technology valuation factors for a technology under research and development. This evaluation data input unit (110) inputs data such as cash flow estimation period for a technology under research and development, annual cash flow, industry-specific variables that act as success probability, input costs for generating sales, depreciation expenses, and residual value.

[0074] The above evaluation data generating unit (120) is a program module that analyzes data input through the evaluation data input unit (110) and generates evaluation factors so that the technology value can be evaluated through the technology value evaluation model of mathematical formula 1. The above evaluation data generating unit (120) generates the expected product life cycle period (n), annual sales (St), discount rate (r), year of completion of research and development (k), annual research and development cost (RCt), annual cumulative success probability (PCt), input cost for sales generated by year (ICt), annual depreciation expense (DAt), and salvage value (RV) for the technology under research and development. The data for technology value evaluation generated through the above evaluation data generating unit (120) is registered in the database (140).

[0075] The above technology value assessment unit (130) is a program module that calculates the value of the target technology using the data calculated through the evaluation data calculation unit (120), and the technology value assessment unit (130) performs the technology value assessment using the technology value assessment model of mathematical formula 1. That is, as described in mathematical formulas 1 to 5, the technology value assessment unit (130) subtracts the risk-adjusted net present value of the research and development cost from the first year to the year of completion of research and development (k), subtracts the cost required to generate sales after research and development activities from the year after the year of completion of research and development (k+1) to the expected period of the product life cycle (n), and adds the residual value after the end of the product life cycle (PLC), thereby finally calculating the technology value.

[0076] The data produced through the above process is registered in a database (140), and this database (140) stores data such as the expected product life cycle period (n), annual sales (St), discount rate (r), year of R&D completion (k), annual R&D cost (RCt), annual cumulative success probability (PCt), input cost for sales generated by the year (ICt), annual depreciation expense (DAt), and salvage value (RV) produced by the evaluation data production unit (120). In addition, data such as the total sales net present value, risk-adjusted net present value of R&D cost, cost required to generate sales after R&D activities, salvage value, and technology value production results produced by the technology value evaluation unit (130) are also registered.

[0077] The technology value calculation information calculated through the above process is provided to the user who requested the technology value assessment.

[0078] Below, an example of evaluating the technology value by applying the technology value assessment model proposed in the present invention to a next-generation insulin treatment technology for diabetes in research and development is described.

[0079]

[0080] Table 1 below presents an example of assumptions about diabetes market data.

[0081] [Table 1]

[0082]

[0083] The market size assumes the maximum number of US diabetic patients using insulin, reflecting the average annual population growth rate of 0.68%, the maximum market share of 5%, the price per pill is estimated by dividing the average annual consumption cost of insulin used by US diabetic patients by the number of patients, and the peak sales period is assumed to be 2 years, the salvage value is assumed to be 30%, and the discount rate is assumed to be 20%.

[0084] The development stage is preclinical, and the clinical stage will take a total of 4 years, with each stage taking 1 year. Based on the 6-year sales generation period, a total of 10 years of economic modification of the technology was assumed. Each variable required for cash flow estimation was assumed as shown in Table 2 below.

[0085] [Table 2]

[0086]

[0087] In this example, each clinical phase is assumed to last one year for convenience. However, for practical evaluation of future clinical trial drugs, the actual clinical trial period should be extended. In this example, "R&D 0" refers to the present, including costs incurred in all previous phases, but is assumed to be preclinical costs.

[0088] Based on the above variables, sales were estimated as follows.

[0089] [Table 3]

[0090]

[0091] For ease of calculation, these costs have been incorporated into preclinical costs. Furthermore, depreciation is assumed to be fixed for invested capital.

[0092] Based on these output data, the technology valuation results according to mathematical formula 1 are calculated to have the technology value shown in Table 4 below. The table shows that the technology value differs by approximately $300 million as of the current point in time compared to the existing method.

[0093] [Table 4]

[0094]

[0095] FIG. 5 visually shows the technological value changing by year compared to the result values ​​of Table 4 above using the existing NPV (net present value) method. Since it is located below the graph of the technological value using the NPV method, it indicates that the value is overestimated in the case of the existing method that does not reflect the risk of R&D development, and it can be seen that the technological value assessment model proposed in the present invention evaluates the technological value more accurately than the existing NPV method.

[0096]

[0097] In this way, the present invention proposes a technology valuation model specialized in research and development technology. The technology valuation model expressed in mathematical formula 1 proposed in the present invention calculates technology value by reflecting the net present value of total sales up to the expected lifespan of the product, the risk-adjusted net present value of research and development costs up to the year of completion of research and development, the cost required to generate sales after research and development activities, and the residual value after the end of the product life cycle (PLC), thereby enabling a fair valuation of research and development technology.

[0098]

[0099] The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and it is obvious that various modifications and variations can be made by a person having ordinary knowledge in the technical field to which the present invention pertains within the scope equivalent to the technical idea of ​​the present invention and the scope of the patent claims to be described below.

[0100]

[0101] [Explanation of symbols]

[0102] 100: Technology Valuation Device

[0103] 110: Evaluation data input section

[0104] 120: Evaluation data production section

[0105] 130: Technology Value Assessment Department

[0106] 140: Database

Claims

1. In a method for evaluating the technological value of research and development (R&D) technology in a technology valuation device, The above technology valuation device calculates the net present value (a) of total sales from the first year to the expected product life cycle period (n) for the technology under research and development, the risk-adjusted net present value (b) of research and development costs from the first year to the year of completion of research and development (k), the cost (c) required to generate sales after research and development activities from the year after the completion of research and development (k+1) to the expected product life cycle period (n), and the residual value (d) after the end of the product life cycle (PLC). The technology value is calculated by subtracting the risk-adjusted net present value (b) and the cost required to generate sales after research and development activities (c) from the total sales net present value (a) calculated above, and then adding the residual value (d). Here, the risk-adjusted net present value (b) is calculated using the following mathematical formula 3: [Equation 3] In the above mathematical expression 3, t is the year (year), k is the year of completion of research and development (R&D), r is the discount rate, RCt is the research and development cost incurred in year t, and PCt is the cumulative success probability incurred in year t, which is calculated by multiplying the cumulative success probability up to the previous R&D stage (PCp) and the R&D success probability of the current stage (PSc) (PCt = PCp × PSc).

2. In paragraph 1, A technology valuation method characterized in that the above technology value is calculated using the following mathematical formula 1: [Mathematical Formula 1] 3. In a device for evaluating the technological value of research and development (R&D) technology, An evaluation data generation unit (120) that generates evaluation data including the expected product life cycle period (n) for a technology under research and development, annual sales (St), discount rate (r), year of completion of research and development (k), annual research and development cost (RCt), annual cumulative success probability (PCt), input cost for annual sales (ICt), annual depreciation expense (DAt), and salvage value (RV); Through the evaluation data produced through the above evaluation data production unit (120), the net present value (a) of total sales from the first year to the expected product life cycle period (n), the risk-adjusted net present value (b) of research and development costs from the first year to the year of completion of research and development (k), the cost (c) required to generate sales after research and development activities from the year after the year of completion of research and development to the expected product life cycle period (n), and the residual value (d) after the end of the product life cycle (PLC) are calculated. A technology value assessment unit (130) that calculates the technology value by subtracting the risk-adjusted net present value (b) and the cost required to generate sales after research and development activities (c) from the total sales net present value (a) calculated above, and then adding the residual value (d); The above technology value assessment unit (130) is a technology value assessment device characterized in that it calculates the risk-adjusted net present value (b) through the following mathematical formula 3: [Equation 3] In the above mathematical expression 3, t is the year (year), k is the year of completion of research and development (R&D), r is the discount rate, RCt is the research and development cost incurred in year t, and PCt is the cumulative success probability incurred in year t, which is calculated by multiplying the cumulative success probability up to the previous R&D stage (PCp) and the R&D success probability of the current stage (PSc) (PCt = PCp × PSc).

4. In paragraph 3, The above technology value assessment unit (130) is a technology value assessment device characterized in that it calculates technology value through the following mathematical formula 1: [Mathematical Formula 1]

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