Estimation device and estimation method

By integrating a learning model with marine physical and biogeochemical models, the estimation device accurately calculates the time-dependent growth rates of marine microorganisms, addressing the limitations of existing ESMs and improving ocean biogeochemical simulations.

WO2025253489A1 Publication Date: 2025-12-11NT T INC
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Patent Information

Application Number
PCT/JP2024/020335
Authority / Receiving Office
WO · WO
Patent Type
Applications
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2024-06-04
Publication Date
2025-12-11

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing Earth System Models (ESMs) struggle to accurately estimate the fast evolutionary growth rates of marine microorganisms due to the reliance on ocean physical models that do not account for time-dependent changes.

Method used

A model generation unit calculates marine biogeochemical model (OBM) values using marine physical models and learns a learning model to estimate the growth rate of marine microorganisms at each time step, while an estimation unit uses this model to calculate other OBM values and estimate the growth rate from marine physical values.

Benefits of technology

This approach allows for more accurate estimation of the growth rate of marine microorganisms, reflecting their evolutionary speed and reducing processing load, thereby enhancing the simulation of ocean biogeochemical processes.

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Abstract

An estimation device 1 comprises: a model generation unit 10 that, in each time step, calculates an OBM value including the growth rate of marine microorganisms using an ocean physical value calculated from an ocean physical model and an ocean biogeochemistry model (OBM), and trains a learning model for estimating the growth rate of marine microorganisms in each time step from the relationship between the ocean physical value and the OBM value in each time step; and an estimation unit 20 that, in each time step, calculates an OBM value other than the growth rate of the marine microorganism using the ocean physical value calculated from the ocean physical model and the OBM, and uses the learning model to estimate the growth rate of the marine microorganism from the ocean physical value and the OBM value other than the growth rate of the marine microorganism.
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