63 results about "Probability assessment" patented technology

Systems and methods are described that facilitate predictive web-crawling in a computer environment. Aspects of the invention provide for predictive, utility-based, and decision theoretic probability assessments of changes in subsets of web pages, enhancing web-crawling ability and ensuring that web page information is maintained in a fresh state. Additionally, the invention facilitates selective crawling of pages with a high probability of change.

The invention provides a method and a system for detecting forest fire. The system is composed of a forest monitoring point which comprises a heavy-duty digital tripod head 1, a thermal infrared imager 2, a visible light camera 3, a micro-meteorological station 4, embedded video processing equipment 5 and a communication bridge 6, and a command and control center which comprises a telemonitoring computer 7 and a communication bridge 8, wherein, the two communication bridges are communicated by a microwave wireless Tcp/IP network. The fire detection work is sequentially performed by the following six major steps: (1) field data acquisition, (2) image data processing, (3) fire recognition and analysis, (4) transmission of recognition results, (5) fire probability assessment and (6) automaticfire early warning. The method and the system combines video compression and decompression technology, thermal infrared image recognition and analysis technology, visible light color image recognition and analysis technology, embedded technology, wireless communication technology, remote sensing (RS) technology and 3D geographic information system technology to automatically recognize forest fireand analyze fire strategies, thus the method and the system are characterized by high detection probability of forest fire, low false alarm rate, no artificial participation, strong timeliness, highreliability, advanced technological means and wide market prospects.

The invention relates to a distribution network static voltage stability probability assessment method based on a two-point estimating method. The distribution network static voltage stability probability assessment method comprises the following steps that firstly, a random output model of a distributed power source is established, the statistical property of random variables in the model is determined, and the two-point estimating method is adopted to obtain calculation sample values and the weight of samples; secondly, on the basis of all the samples, the continuation power flow method is adopted to obtain corresponding static voltage stability thresholds and critical load margins, and the statistical property values of the voltage stability thresholds and the critical load margins are calculated based on the results and the weight of all the samples; finally the Cornish-Fisher series are introduced to estimate the probability distribution of the corresponding static voltage stability margins. The two-point estimating method is adopted to select sample points for deterministic calculational analysis, so that an un-deterministic problem is converted into a deterministic calculation; the voltage stability thresholds of all the sample points are found by utilizing the continuation power flow method, in this way, the voltage stability condition of a distribution network of a distributed power source including random output is estimated, and estimation accuracy is high.

The invention discloses a dynamic risk early warning system for dangerous goods road transportation based on internet of things technology, comprising a vehicle-mounted unit, a vehicle-dispatch waybill module and a risk assessment unit, wherein the vehicle-mounted unit comprises a vehicle positioning module, a vehicle running parameter acquisition unit, a driver parameter acquisition module, an information processing and communication module and an alarm module; the vehicle-dispatch waybill module comprises a vehicle basic information module, a driver basic information module, a cargo information module and a transportation route information module; the risk assessment unit comprises a geographic information analysis module, a transportation accident probability assessment database, a transportation consequence assessment database and a transportation risk assessment database. The risk assessment result is compared with a acceptable risk threshold value, and if the acceptable risk threshold value is exceeded, an early warning will be sent out by the system. The dynamic risk early warning system for dangerous goods road transportation can assess the dynamic risk of the dangerous goods road transportation in real time, and send out an early warning when the risk exceeds the preset threshold value, so that intelligent auxiliary supervision of the transportation risk is realized, and the dangerous goods transportation management is improved.

The invention discloses a probabilistic load flow calculation method, giving consideration to photovoltaic non-linear correlation, for a power system, and the method comprises the following steps: building a photovoltaic power station probability model; building a power sample space of a photovoltaic power station, carrying out the sampling of an output probability density function of a photovoltaic electric field through employing an LHS algorithm, and then obtaining a power sample space of the photovoltaic power station; calculating the probabilistic load flow of a photovoltaic grid-connected system, enabling all groups of sample values in the generated photovoltaic output sample space to be sequentially substituted into a load flow equation for common load flow calculation, obtaining load flow samples of all nodes and branch circuits comprising a photovoltaic grid-connected node, and obtaining a sample space of an output random variable; carrying out the probability assessment of aload flow calculation index, and obtaining the probability statistics characteristics of an output variable needed by photovoltaic grid connection and an index through a probability statistics method.The method provided by the invention enables a probability calculating result to be more accurate, and achieves the accurate description of the uncertainty of the grid-connected system under the condition that the sampling scale is smaller.

The invention relates to an anti-seismic property probability assessment method based on behavior bispectrum. The anti-seismic property probability assessment method comprises the following steps that1, the anti-seismic property level of an engineering structure is determined; 2, property level displacements for setting a single-freedom-degree system under different property levels are confirmed;3, a simulation test is performed through a single-freedom-degree elastic-plastic differential equation; 4, a behavior earthquake dynamic-inputting spectrum and a behavior response spectrum are respectively obtained; 5, seismic oscillation probability distribution models of each period point and seismic response probability distribution models under different property levels are determined through K-S inspection; 6, probability assessment is conducted on input seismic oscillations under the different property levels; 7, probability assessment is conducted on seismic response accelerations reaching the different property levels; 8, probability assessment is conducted on structural base shear parameters; 9, probability assessment is conducted on a structural seismic action effect. By adopting the anti-seismic property probability assessment method, more scientific and accurate assessment results are provided for the safety of anti-seismic structures at the probability level based on theanti-seismic property level.

The invention discloses an EPTM model-based probability calculation method for circuit signal reliability. The calculation method comprises the following steps of 1: analyzing a netlist and initializing related variables; 2: extracting a circuit basic member gj, and calculating PTM of an input signal of the circuit basic member gj; 3: extracting PGj of gj, and calculating an output signal probability pgj of PGj; and 4: calculating output signal reliability pc of a circuit. The invention provides an accurate signal probability calculation method taking the circuit basic member as a unit based on an EPTM model; and the method can be used for accurately and quickly realizing probability assessment of circuit signal reliability, and is beneficial for realizing high-reliability design of a circuit topology structure in an early stage of circuit design.

A method for building intelligent user assistance devices. In a computer having a processor and memory, and further comprising an output unit to provide a user interface for a user to interact with a program, a method of providing a user with a user assistance tool program for use with a program executed in the computer, comprising the steps of, during execution of the program, performing a probability assessment of the current user interaction with the interface to generate a numerical probability distribution for a plurality of different available help topics, thereby generating an independent probability measure for each of said help topics , the interaction indicates the user's intention to perform a specific task through the program, such that each of several independent probability measures is defined to indicate whether, given an action, the user would need relevant information from these topics in order to complete the task the probability of a specific message where the interaction has both linguistic and non-linguistic components; select a specific help topic that is most relevant to the user interaction according to probability measures over multiple distributions; and present the user via the output component Provides scheduled help messages related to a help topic.

The invention provides a distributive dynamic clustering energy saving method of heterogeneous network, and aims at solving the problems that the energy saving of most of the existing heterogeneous networks estimate is evaluated and analyzed according to the volume of business of a website, rather than considering the geological positions of the website and business load distribution conditions; some study methods are high in system complexity and are inapplicable to the realistic network. The distributive dynamic clustering energy saving method of the heterogeneous network is characterized in that a low-complexity, high-performance and high-applicability heterogeneous network energy-saving strategy is proposed, and the access attribution judging is performed on the basis of the relay geological position and the business distribution clustering model and according to the energy efficiency priority principle, namely, a searching area is created based on the business volume distributing center of a multi-relay cluster and a macro station, then the relays within the area are closed on the premise that the energy efficiency of the system is raised, and finally the relay sleeping probability costing calculation method. According to the distributive dynamic clustering energy saving method of the heterogeneous network, a relay-closing probability assessment line is obtained according to the multi-relay geological position and the business load distribution, the relay with the minimum sleeping cost is preferably selected to be closed on the premise that the user access is realized and the energy efficiency of the system is raised, and thus the energy saving analysis is done on that basis.

A probability assessment method of effects of distributed photovoltaic power supply access mainly includes inputting initial data including network line parameter, generator power and load node power, type and nominal power of a distributed power supply and the like; inputting observation light intensity of access places of the distributed photovoltaic power supply at 24 hours one day; calculating output power initial value of the distributed photovoltaic power supply; calculating power flow distribution under normal operation condition; calculating each-stage cumulant of random variable of output power of the distributed photovoltaic power supply; calculating each-stage cumulant of node random injection power according to property of the cumulant; further calculating each-stage cumulant of state variable; and calculating system voltage out-of-limit probability of one year to assess effects of distributed photovoltaic power supply access. The probability assessment method completely considers load power and probability distribution characteristics of the distributed photovoltaic power supply output and is capable of accurately assessing effects of distributed power supply access. The method is suitable for probability assessment of effects of distributed photovoltaic power supply access.

The invention discloses a three-phase unbalance factor probability assessment method based on state estimation. The method comprises the steps that A, a network node three-phase admittance matrix of an actual electric system is calculated; B, an injection active power expression and a reactive power expression of a phase p of a node i in the electric system are calculated; C, the error between the measured quantity and the true physical quantity of the system is calculated through a state estimation method; D, a sampling process expression of a load power and n distributed power output powers is obtained; E, a state quantity estimated value is solved; F, a voltage unbalance factor is solved; G, a three-phase unbalance factor probability assessment is carried out. By the adoption of the three-phase unbalance degree probability assessment method based on state estimation, three-phase unbalance probability distribution and change characteristics of voltages of a power distribution system which a distributed power supply is connected into can be analyzed objectively and reasonably; the method has positive significance in reasonably utilizing renewable energy to generate electricity in a conventional power distribution system.

The invention discloses a probability dynamic safety assessment method in account of wind power. The method mainly comprises the steps: conducting probabilistic modeling of the uncertain factors which affect the power system safety level, particularly, conducting the probabilistic modeling of the wind power and load node injection power, and conducting modeling of the component failure probability; constructing the system dynamic safety probability assessment index, and obtaining a parsing expression of the system dynamic safety probability PDS; offline calculating the system dynamic safety probability based on the safety domain parsing, particularly, calculating the hyperplane coefficient of a dynamic safety domain containing the wind power for all failures of an expected accident set, and parsing and calculating the system dynamic safety probability according to a probability model of the component failure and the parsing expression of the system dynamic safety probability and based on the dynamic safety domain containing the wind power of the hyperplane format and the Cornish-Fisher series. The method can be applied to the monitoring and control of power system safety, the comparison of planning scheme, the optimization of operation and the like.

The invention discloses a static voltage stability probability assessment method for a drooping control island microgrid. The method include a step 1 of establishing a nonlinear planning model; a step2 of calculating the expectation of input random variables and the standard deviation of each variable and determining the correlation coefficient variables between the variables; a step 3 of solvinga covariance matrix according to the standard deviation of each random variable and the correlation coefficient between the variables; a step 4 of determining Sigma sample points by using a symmetrical sampling strategy; a step 5 of substituting each Sigma sample point into the nonlinear planning model in step 1 for optimization solution to obtain the output corresponding to each input sample point, and the sigma point set of a load clearance factor; and a step 6 of according to weighting the mean value and the weight of the covariance obtained in step 4 to finally obtain the mean value and covariance matrix of the load clearance factor. The method has obvious advantages in terms of calculation speed.

The invention discloses an intelligent exit and entry system based on faces and vehicle-related characteristics. The intelligent exit and entry system comprises a front-end recognition module, an information positioning module, a data analysis module, an intelligent decision module and an output control module. The front-end recognition module comprises a biometric identification intelligent camera and a vehicle identification intelligent camera. The information positioning module comprises the functions of personnel information positioning and vehicle information positioning, and based on artificial intelligence analysis of big data, the data analysis module analyzes intelligent exit and entry relationship information through vehicle information and personnel information acquired by the positioning module and relevant entry and exit record information. The intelligent decision module makes intelligent probabilistic decisions on the intelligent exit and entry relationship information to obtain probability assessment of various release decisions. According to the intelligent exit and entry system based on the faces and the vehicle-related characteristics, face information of a driver and passengers on a vehicle are also identified while the vehicle is identified, whether the vehicle can enter and exit the field or not is automatically determined by an artificial intelligence analysis system mining relevant information of vehicles and people, the entry and exit experience and the traffic efficiency are greatly improved, and manual management work is reduced.

The invention relates to an urban transmission grid safety probability assessment method considering an elasticity margin. In the present invention, a wind power plant output probability model and a comprehensive load power demand probability model are used to describe the change of the injection power of a transmission network node; a three-point estimation method is used to select evaluation samples to form a sample evaluation matrix, which reduces the evaluation calculation amount; the change of the injection power of the node causes the power flow of each branch to shift to different degrees, the branch that is sensitive to the power fluctuation of some nodes has a large power flow offset, the RSSD can reflect the sensitivity of the transmission grid safety to the power change of the node; and each sample in the sample evaluation matrix corresponds to the determined node injection power. The high-voltage distribution network reconfiguration performs the load transfer to change theoperation mode to make the transmission grid generate elastic margin. A feasible topological state of the high-voltage distribution network is selected as the operation mode to enable each evaluationsample to have the greatest safety margin.

A system and method for delivering an assessment to individuals currently having an involvement in and those potentially acquiring an involvement in the management of an established business are provided. The system and method include an assessment of a plurality of factors that have been shown to influence the success of a business management transition, an analysis of the assessment, and a reporting of the analysis to the client. By subdividing the assessment and analysis into the plurality of factors, each can be prioritized, addressed independently and remediated as deemed necessary. In a particular embodiment, the succession success assessment and report can be delivered online.

The invention provides a detection system and a probability assessment method for chain explosion of a lithium ion battery pack. The probability assessment method comprises the following steps: (1) determining a relational expression of the explosion probability YT and temperature T of a single battery; (2) determining a relational expression of the explosion probability YN and deformation N of the single battery; (3) obtaining an expression of the total probability Y of the single battery under different temperatures and deformations according to step (1) and step (2); and (4) detecting the temperature and deformation of each single battery in the lithium ion battery pack, calculating the explosion probability of each single battery according to the expression of Y, and determining the chain explosion probability of the lithium ion battery pack to be the highest explosion probability of the single batteries. The detection system and the probability assessment method for chain explosion of the lithium ion battery pack can be used for detecting the real-time chain explosion probabilities of the lithium ion battery pack under different working conditions and clinical conditions for chain explosion reaction, thereby realizing pertinent safety prevention and control.

The invention discloses a data driven probability assessment method. The method is applied to reactor coolant system dynamic analysis and comprises the steps that a finite element calculation procedure is used for establishing and describing an input output relationship from main system key parameters to load distribution; a database composed of a great number of sample points is established through sampling in parameter space, and labels are given to data through relevant evaluation standards and design specifications; based on the database, regression and sorting algorithms in machine learning are utilized to establish an input output surrogate model; failure bounds of components in the parameter space are calculated, and a corresponding relation between the key parameters to a failure probability is obtained; for a new parameter combination, the surrogate model and the failure bounds can be used for quickly assessing the load distribution and component failure probability of a mainsystem, thereby providing support for the optimization of reactor coolant system key parameters.

The invention discloses a method for assessing collapse probability of a steel structure in a fire. The method includes steps: 1, determining a probability distribution function of random factors; 2, designing a random fire scene; 3, building a steel structure instability probability model; 4, determining steel structure collapse critical temperature; 5, calculating a temperature field of a large-span steel structure component in a natural fire: 501, building a steel structure heat balance equation; 502, calculating net absorption heat of the steel structure; 503, calculating temperature rise of the steel structure; 6, determining failure probability of the steel structure component. The method is simple in step, reasonable in design, convenient to realize, good in using effect and high in universality, can realize assessment on collapse probability of the steel structure in the fire and makes up the defect that influence of fire randomness is not taken into consideration in existing steel structure collapse probability assessment methods.

The invention provides a radar discovery probability assessment method and device based on air situation data. The method comprises the following steps: gridding a radar detection airspace to generate a detection airspace resolution cell grid; performing track time cross matching and detection power cross matching on the radar report track and the information center fused track, and preliminarily judging that the radar report track and the information center fused track are the same target track; performing track interpolation matching on the same target track, and performing accurate matching on the track reported by the radar and the track fused by the information center; interpolating the precisely matched fused track to obtain a target full track matched with the radar report track data rate, and calculating the radar discovery probability of each resolution cell grid on the target full track. According to the invention, the fused data can be accurately matched with the track data reported by the radar, and the fused track data is processed to generate a target full track matched with the data reported by the local radar.

The invention provides a power distribution network confidence peak clipping benefit assessment method capable of considering distributed photovoltaic randomness. The method comprises the following steps that: (1) obtaining the net rack parameter, the load model and the photovoltaic output model of a power distribution network; (2) obtaining the node number and the node capacity for distributed photovoltaic access; (3) adopting a Monte Carlo method to sample and simulate the daily load curve and the photovoltaic output curve of each node; (4) calculating the confidence daily peak clipping degree of each node; (5) establishing a probability assessment model which simultaneously considers the peak clipping benefits of three categories of equipment including a transformer substation, a line and a distribution transform station; and (6) assessing the confidence daily peak clipping benefit expectation of the power distribution network. The invention puts forward the power distribution network confidence peak clipping benefit assessment method capable of considering the distributed photovoltaic randomness, and can be used for carrying out probabilistic peak clipping benefit assessment onthe power distribution network containing distributed photovoltaic. The assessment model also can be used for effectively distinguishing influence differences for the power distribution network peakclipping benefits when distributed photovoltaic is accessed by different positions and different voltage levels.

The invention provides a weighted probability-based navigation constellation on-orbit operation risk assessment system and method, and belongs to the technical field of navigation constellation assessment. The system comprises a risk factor identification module, a satellite configuration analysis module, a satellite health state analysis module, a satellite on-orbit use analysis module and a networking satellite comprehensive risk assessment module; the risk factor identification module is used for identifying risk factors in an on-orbit operation state of the satellite, and the risk factorscomprise constellation configuration risk factors, networking satellite on-orbit health state risk factors and on-orbit use conditions; the satellite configuration analysis module, the satellite health state analysis module and the satellite in-orbit use analysis module calculate the risk comprehensive weighting probability, the weighting probability of the health state of each orbit satellite andthe in-orbit use weighting probability of each orbit satellite under the condition that each orbit satellite is unavailable according to the identified risk; and the networking satellite comprehensive risk assessment module assesses the comprehensive risk of each orbit satellite according to each weighting probability.

The invention discloses a risk index-containing transformer full-life cycle cost probability assessment method. The method comprises the steps of determining triangular distribution parameters of random variables required for simulation, and determining a maximum simulation frequency N at the same time; calculating probabilities of the triangular distribution parameters by utilizing a triangular distribution function to obtain the random variables of the triangular distribution parameters; constructing a transformer full-life cycle cost probability assessment model by utilizing the random variables of the triangular distribution parameters; calculating the transformer full-life cycle cost probability assessment model by utilizing a Monte-Carlo simulation method, stopping a Monte-Carlo simulation process when a standard deviation (R<0.1) or a simulation frequency reaches the maximum frequency N, and recording full-life cycle cost calculation results obtained by simulations in the process; analyzing the full-life cycle cost calculation results to obtain a transformer full-life cycle cost probability distribution result; and the like. According to the method, an assessment result can provide an effective decision-making basis for transformer model selection and assets management.

Embodiments of the invention provide a recommendation system for probability assessment and blocking or improvement methods of genetic disease risks. According to the system, a collection page is shared by a user to relatives, so the relatives can complete data filling on line, and thus, a genetic analysis module can generate a family tree according to the personal basic information of the user, the basic information of the family members of the user and the disease information of the family members of the user, and speculate the risk probability of the disease inherited by the user accordingto the family tree. According to the embodiments of the invention, the user can conveniently acquire the information of the relatives, so the risk probability of the disease inherited by the user canbe known more conveniently, and medical resources can be saved; and in addition, the user can quickly master medical resources for treating the disease in a set area by screening hospital informationin a set range.