The invention relates to a multi-state conversion runoff prediction method based on structural fracture recognition, and is suitable for the technical field of
hydrology and water resource prediction. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a historical runoff sequence and performing stationarity test; the global
residual sum of squares is minimized under the piecewise
linear regression framework; establishing a
mean value model for the stationary sequence, and calculating a one-step
prediction residual sequence as a disturbance term
estimation value; taking the residual error as input, establishing a first-order Markov state transition structure, and jointly estimating a
state transition probability matrix of the state transition structure and fluctuation parameters of each hidden state; setting an initial state
probability vector as steady-
state distribution or uniform distribution of the
state transition probability matrix, and obtaining a smooth state probability at each moment through backward
recursion by using
full sample information; and generating one-step rolling condition prediction under each state, weighting according to a
state prediction probability to obtain a rolling point prediction result of the runoff, executing inverse transformation according to recorded difference and transformation parameters, and recovering to an original
physical quantity scale.