The invention relates to the field of
fire risk assessment, and discloses a
Markov chain model-based
fire risk assessment method, which comprises the following steps of: defining a fire state set S, constructing a fire
state transition matrix P according to historical fire data, and calculating steady-
state distribution # imgabs0 # of each fire state by using the fire
state transition matrix P, according to the distribution # imgabs1 # of the current fire state, the fire
state distribution # imgabs2 # of the next moment is predicted, the fire state changes of multiple moments in the future are obtained after multiple times of repeated prediction, the expected value # imgabs4 # of the
fire risk is defined for each fire state # imgabs3 #, the total expected value R of the fire risk is calculated, the future fire occurrence situation is simulated for multiple times through the Monte Carlo method, and the fire state changes of multiple moments in the future are obtained. Evaluating a
future risk scene; and obtaining probability distribution of states at different moments in the future according to a fire occurrence condition
simulation result, and providing a basis for a fireproof plan. Real-time assessment of fire risks is realized through dynamic modeling, accuracy and scientificity of assessment are improved, and
fire prevention and emergency management decisions are effectively supported.