A method for predicting extreme positive IOD events based on ENSO and MJO

By using the statistical modeling method of ENSO and MJO collaborative signals, the accuracy and stability issues in the prediction of extreme positive IOD events were solved, and efficient prediction of extreme events was achieved.

CN122087774AActive Publication Date: 2026-05-26JIANGSU METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATORY
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
JIANGSU METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATORY
Filing Date
2026-04-23
Publication Date
2026-05-26

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Abstract

This invention discloses a method for predicting extreme positive IOD events based on ENSO and MJO. This invention uses the ENSO and MJO co-signals and extracts the key signals of ENSO and MJO that affect IOD. At the same time, it combines model forecast field information to perform statistical modeling for extreme positive IOD event prediction. This method avoids the systematic underestimation of strong IOD amplitude by dynamic models and can improve the prediction lead time and prediction accuracy of extreme positive IOD events.
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