Information processing device, power generation system, and information processing method

Abstract

To provide an information processing device, a power generation system, and an information processing method that compensate for imbalance when prediction of an amount of power generation fails.SOLUTION: A monitor control device (information processing device) acquires a solar radiation amount prediction value which is a solar radiation amount at an installation location of a solar power generation facility on a target day for predicting a power generation amount of the solar power generation facility, obtains a predicted power generation amount which is a prediction value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation facility on the target day based on the solar radiation amount prediction value, and sets an initial SOC which is SOC (State Of Charge) at the start of power generation on the day of the solar power generation facility of a power storage value that acts to absorb the surplus or shortfall of a power amount supplied from the solar power generation facility to a power system so that its value increases as the predicted power generation amount increases. The monitor control device stores, for example, a graph indicating the correspondence between a value obtained by dividing the predicted power generation (plan value) by a power generation amount on a sunny day and the initial SOC, and calculates the initial SOC by comparing the predicted power generation with the graph.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an information processing device, a power generation system, and an information processing method, and more particularly to a technique for compensating for an imbalance that occurs when power is supplied from a renewable energy power generation facility to a power grid. [Background technology]

[0002] Patent Document 1 describes a power generation system configured for the purpose of enabling a power generation facility using renewable energy to be connected to a commercial power grid without exceeding the interconnection capacity. The power generation system includes a first power generation facility, a second power generation facility, a storage battery facility, and a control device that controls the storage battery facility. The control device determines a battery capacity target value of the storage battery at the time to be predicted from a predicted total power generation value of the first power generation facility and the second power generation facility that predicts the power generation of the first power generation facility and the second power generation facility, the battery capacity of the storage battery facility at the current time, and the interconnection capacity to the commercial power grid.

[0003] Patent Document 2 describes that in a natural energy power generation device, the amount of power generated is greatly affected by the weather, if the predicted amount of power generated deviates due to the weather on the day, it is likely that the amount of power generated will be too little to meet the actual electricity demand, or conversely, that the amount of power generated will be too much, causing the storage battery to be overcharged. In light of this, it is described that by accurately predicting the amount of power generated, the excess or deficiency of the charge in the storage battery can be reduced, thereby improving the utilization rate of the storage battery. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] JP 2019-161863 A [Patent Document 2] JP 2010-213507 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] In order to promote the use of renewable energy, the FIT system (a feed-in tariff system for renewable energy) was introduced in Japan in 2012. In addition, for large-scale solar and wind power that are expected to grow into competitive power sources, a transition to a market-linked FIP system is planned. When the FIP system is introduced, renewable energy power generation companies will also bear the risk of imbalance, and the power generation company will have to aim to achieve the planned simultaneous equal amount, but in order to achieve the planned simultaneous equal amount, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of power generation forecasts.

[0006] However, there is a limit to how much prediction error (the difference between the planned value and the actual value) can be suppressed, and it is necessary to compensate for the prediction error by absorbing (charging or discharging) the surplus or shortage of power into the storage battery. However, since the capacity of the storage battery is subject to cost and other constraints, it is necessary to use the limited capacity efficiently, and in particular, how much the storage battery should be charged before power generation starts tomorrow morning, i.e., what the initial SOC (State Of Charge) should be set to, is important in achieving the planned value.

[0007] In the above Patent Document 1, the battery capacity target value of the storage battery at the time to be predicted is determined based on the predicted total power generation value of the first power generation equipment and the second power generation equipment, the battery capacity of the storage battery equipment at the current time, and the interconnection capacity to the commercial power system. In addition, in Patent Document 2, in consideration of the fact that a situation in which the actual power demand cannot be met or conversely, a situation in which an excessive amount of power generation leads to overcharging of the storage battery, etc., occurs easily when the prediction of the amount of power generation is incorrect, the amount of power generation is accurately predicted to reduce the excess or deficiency of the charge amount of the storage battery, and the utilization rate of the storage battery is improved. However, since the amount of power generation of a solar power generation equipment is greatly affected by the natural environment (weather, cloud movement, sunshine hours, etc.), it is possible that the prediction will be incorrect, but neither Patent Document 1 nor Patent Document 2 particularly considers compensation for the imbalance when the prediction is incorrect.

[0008] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above background, and aims to provide an information processing device, a power generation system, and an information processing method for compensating for the imbalance that occurs when a prediction of the amount of power generation is incorrect. [Means for solving the problem]

[0009] One of the present inventions for achieving the above object is an information processing device having a processor and a storage device, which acquires a predicted solar radiation value, which is the amount of solar radiation at an installation site of a solar power generation facility on a target day, which is a day on which the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility is to be predicted, calculates a predicted power generation amount, which is a predicted value of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility on the target day, based on the predicted solar radiation value, and calculates a power storage device that functions to absorb an excess or shortage of the amount of power supplied from the solar power generation facility to a power grid with respect to the predicted power generation amount. pond The initial SOC, which is the SOC (State Of Charge) at the start of power generation of the photovoltaic power generation facility on the day, is set to a larger value as the predicted power generation amount is larger.

[0010] The information processing device of the present invention sets the initial SOC of the storage battery so that the larger the predicted power generation amount (planned value), the larger the initial SOC value becomes. Therefore, for example, if the weather on the target day is predicted to be good, the initial SOC of the storage battery is set to a large value, and if the prediction is wrong and the weather is actually bad, the shortage of power can be reliably compensated for by discharging the storage battery. Also, for example, if the weather on the target day is predicted to be bad, the initial SOC of the storage battery is set to a small value (ensuring sufficient free capacity in the storage battery), and if the prediction is wrong and the weather is actually good, the surplus power can be absorbed (charged) by the storage battery.

[0011] Another aspect of the present invention for achieving the above-mentioned object is the above-mentioned information processing device, which obtains a clear day power generation amount, which is the amount of power generated by the solar power generation equipment on a past clear day corresponding to the target day, stores a graph showing the correspondence between the initial SOC and the value obtained by dividing the predicted power generation amount by the clear day power generation amount, and obtains the initial SOC by comparing the predicted power generation amount with the graph.

[0012] In this way, the information processing device of the present invention calculates the initial SOC based on a graph showing the correspondence between the initial SOC and the value obtained by dividing the predicted power generation (planned value) by the power generation on a clear day. Therefore, the initial SOC can be appropriately set for the predicted power generation, and the surplus or shortage can be reliably compensated for if the weather prediction is incorrect.

[0013] Another aspect of the present invention for achieving the above object is the information processing device, in which the initial SOC is set so that a preset lower limit of the amount of stored power is ensured.

[0014] In this way, the information processing device of the present invention sets the initial SOC so that a predetermined lower limit of stored power is secured, and therefore the initial SOC can be set so as not to fall below the minimum amount of stored power required for emergencies such as when a prediction is significantly off.

[0015] Another aspect of the present invention for achieving the above-mentioned object is the above-mentioned information processing device, which obtains, as the solar radiation predicted value, a solar radiation predicted value (perturbation run) which is a solar radiation predicted value based on a perturbation run, and a solar radiation predicted value (ensemble) which is a solar radiation predicted value based on an ensemble method, and selects, as the solar radiation predicted value, the solar radiation predicted value (perturbation run) when the variation between members of the solar radiation predicted value based on the ensemble method is greater than a preset threshold, and selects the solar radiation predicted value (ensemble) when the variation between members of the solar radiation predicted value based on the ensemble method is equal to or less than a preset threshold.

[0016] In this way, the information processing device of the present invention selects the more reliable solar radiation predicted value from the solar radiation predicted value (perturbation run) and the solar radiation predicted value (ensemble) to determine the predicted power generation amount, thereby enabling the predicted power generation amount to be calculated with high accuracy.

[0017] Other problems and solutions disclosed in the present application will be made clear in the section of the description of the invention and the drawings. Effect of the Invention

[0018] According to the present invention, it is possible to compensate for the imbalance that occurs when the prediction of the amount of power generation is incorrect. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0019] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a schematic configuration of a power generation system. [Diagram 2] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing main functions of a monitoring control device. [Figure 3A] 1 is an example of a predicted solar radiation value. [Figure 3B] This is an example of a performance value. [Figure 3C] 1 is an example of a planned value / initial SOC graph. [Figure 4] 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of an information processing device used to realize a monitoring control device. [Diagram 5] 11 is a flowchart illustrating an initial SOC setting process. [Figure 6A] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a mechanism by which imbalance is compensated for by a storage battery. [Figure 6B] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a mechanism by which imbalance is compensated for by a storage battery. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0020] An embodiment will be described below with reference to the drawings. In the following description, the same or similar configurations may be denoted by common reference symbols and description thereof may be omitted. In the following description, various information may be described using expressions such as "information," "data," and "table," but the various information may be expressed using data structures other than these. In the following description, the letter "S" before a reference symbol indicates a processing step.

[0021] 1 shows a schematic configuration of a power generation system 1 which will be described as one embodiment of the present invention. The power generation system 1 includes a photovoltaic power generation facility (hereinafter referred to as a "PV power generation facility 20" (PV: PhotoVoltaic)), which is one type of power generation facility that utilizes renewable energy, and various facilities and devices for monitoring and controlling the PV power generation facility 20. As shown in the figure, the illustrated power generation system 1 includes, in addition to the PV power generation facility 20, a storage battery 30, a storage battery control device 40, a weather information providing device 60, a monitoring control device 100, and a measurement device 70.

[0022] The PV power generation facility 20, the storage battery 30, the storage battery control device 40, the weather information providing device 60, the monitoring control device 100, and the measurement device 70 are connected to each other in a state capable of two-way communication via a communication network 5. The communication network 5 is, for example, a local area network (LAN), a wide area network (WAN), a dedicated line, a power line communication network, various public communication networks, etc. In addition, the weather information providing device 60 is connected to the Internet 6.

[0023] The PV power generation facility 20 includes a photovoltaic power generation panel configured using, for example, a polycrystalline silicon power generation element, a monocrystalline silicon power generation element, a thin-film power generation element, or the like. The PV power generation facility 20 also includes an inverter or a power conditioner (PCS: Power Conditioning Subsystem) that converts direct current generated by the photovoltaic power generation panel into alternating current and supplies the alternating current to a power system 3 operated by a general electric utility or the like. The PV power generation facility 20 also includes a system interconnection protection device that detects the frequency, overvoltage / undervoltage, and the presence or absence of a power outage of the power system 3 and cuts off the connection with the power system 3.

[0024] The storage battery 30 is, for example, a lead battery, a lithium ion battery, a sodium-sulfur battery, a nickel-metal hydride battery, a redox flow battery, a fuel cell, a capacitor battery, etc. The storage battery 30 includes an inverter or a power conditioner for charging and discharging between the storage battery 30 and the power grid 3. The storage battery 30 serves to absorb surplus or shortage of power with respect to the planned value of the amount of power generated by the PV power generation facility 20.

[0025] The storage battery control device 40 performs charging and discharging control (hereinafter referred to as "charging and discharging control") of the storage battery 30 based on a control instruction sent from the monitoring control device 100 via the communication network 5. The storage battery control device 40 performs charging and discharging control of the storage battery 30, for example, so that the amount of stored electricity (SOC (State Of Charge)) of the storage battery 30 becomes a preset target value (hereinafter referred to as "target amount of stored electricity"). Note that the storage battery 30 may also have the function of the storage battery control device 40.

[0026] When the amount of power supplied from the PV power generation facility 20 to the power system 3 exceeds a preset amount of power (planned value), the monitoring control device 100 transmits a control instruction (charge instruction) for the storage battery 30 to the storage battery control device 40 so that the storage battery 30 absorbs the surplus power. When the amount of power supplied from the PV power generation facility 20 to the power system 3 falls below the planned value, the monitoring control device 100 transmits a control instruction (discharge instruction) for the storage battery 30 to the storage battery control device 40 so that the shortage of power is supplied from the storage battery 30 to the power system 3.

[0027] The weather information providing device 60 predicts the amount of solar radiation at the installation location of the PV power generation facility 20 for a predetermined future period (e.g., the daytime of the next day) based on weather information provided from weather observation stations 7 in the area surrounding the installation location of the PV power generation facility 20 and weather information providing server 8 on the Internet 6, and provides the predicted amount of solar radiation (hereinafter referred to as "predicted solar radiation value") at any time to the monitoring control device 100. In addition, the weather information providing device 60 accumulates and manages the amount of solar radiation (hereinafter referred to as "actual solar radiation value") at the installation location of the PV power generation facility 20 for a predetermined past period (e.g., the past few years) provided from the weather observation stations 7 and the weather information providing server 8, and provides the actual solar radiation value to the monitoring control device 100 at any time.

[0028] The measuring device 70 measures information relating to the state of the power grid 3 (frequency, overvoltage / undervoltage, the presence or absence of a power outage, etc.) and transmits the measured values ​​to the monitoring and controlling device 100 via the communication network 5.

[0029] 2 shows the main functions of the monitoring and control device 100. As shown in the figure, the monitoring and control device 100 includes a memory unit 110, an insolation prediction value acquisition unit 120, a performance value management unit 125, a predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130, a clear day power generation amount acquisition unit 135, an initial SOC calculation unit 140, an initial SOC setting unit 145, and a power generation output fluctuation suppression unit 150.

[0030] Of the above functions, the storage unit 110 stores a predicted solar radiation value 111, a performance value 112, a predicted power generation amount 113, a clear day power generation amount 114, a planned value / initial SOC graph 115, and an initial SOC 116 as main information (data).

[0031] Of the above information stored in the memory unit 110, the solar radiation predicted value 111 includes a solar radiation predicted value received from the weather information providing device 60 (a solar radiation predicted value based on a perturbation run (hereinafter referred to as a "solar radiation predicted value (perturbation run)"), a solar radiation predicted value based on an ensemble method (hereinafter referred to as a "solar radiation predicted value (ensemble)"), etc.).

[0032] 3A shows an example of the solar radiation predicted value 111. As shown in the figure, the solar radiation predicted value 111 shown in the figure has a table structure consisting of a plurality of records having items of date and time 1111 and solar radiation predicted value 1112. One record of the solar radiation predicted value 111 corresponds to a solar radiation predicted value (solar radiation predicted value (perturbation run), solar radiation predicted value (ensemble), etc.) in a predicted time period on a predicted date. According to the solar radiation predicted value 111, a solar radiation predicted value for a predetermined period in the future (for example, the next day) can be obtained.

[0033] Returning to FIG. 2, of the above information stored in the memory unit 110, the actual value 112 includes information that associates the weather at the installation location of the PV power generation equipment 20, the actual measured value of the amount of solar radiation at the installation location (hereinafter referred to as the "actual measured value of solar radiation"), and the actual value of the amount of power generated by the PV power generation equipment 20 (hereinafter referred to as the "actual power generation value") during a specified period in the past.

[0034] 3B shows an example of the actual value 112. As shown in the figure, the illustrated actual value 112 has a table structure made up of a plurality of records having the following items: date 1121, weather 1122, measured solar radiation amount 1123, and actual power generation amount 1124. One record of the actual value 112 corresponds to an actual measurement value (actual solar radiation amount or actual PV power generation amount) on a certain day (date) in the past. According to the actual value 112, the weather, measured solar radiation amount, and actual power generation amount on a certain day in the past can be obtained.

[0035] Returning to FIG. 2, among the above information stored in the memory unit 110, the predicted power generation amount 113 is a predicted value of the power generation amount of the PV power generation facility 20 (hereinafter referred to as the “predicted power generation amount” or the “planned value”) calculated based on a predicted solar radiation amount value.

[0036] Of the above information stored in the storage unit 110, the clear day power generation amount 114 is the actual power generation amount value on a clear day during a predetermined period in the past, acquired from the actual value 112 (hereinafter referred to as "clear day power generation amount").

[0037] Among the above information stored in the storage unit 110, the planned value / initial SOC graph 115 is a graph showing the relationship between the value obtained by dividing the predicted power generation amount (planned value) of the day for which the power generation amount is to be predicted (hereinafter referred to as the "target day") by the power generation amount on a clear day of the day corresponding to the day (for example, a day on which the power generation amount is likely to be similar to that of the target day, such as the same day in the corresponding season), and the initial value (hereinafter referred to as the "initial SOC") of the SOC of the storage battery 30 to be set at the start of power generation on the target day. The planned value / initial SOC graph 115 is set by a manager of the power generation system 1, etc. The monitoring control device 100 provides a user interface for setting the planned value / initial SOC graph 115. The manager, etc. sets the planned value / initial SOC graph 115 by referring to, for example, the specifications and scale of the PV power generation equipment 20, the actual power generation amount value, etc.

[0038] FIG. 3C shows an example of the planned value / initial SOC graph 115. As shown in the figure, the horizontal axis of the planned value / initial SOC graph 115 is the value obtained by dividing the power generation forecast value (planned value) by the PV power generation amount in fine weather on the day corresponding to the control day, and is set so that the power generation forecast value (planned value) becomes smaller toward the right side of the page (the weather worsens from fine weather to heavy rain). The vertical axis of the planned value / initial SOC graph 115 is the initial SOC, and is set so that the initial SOC becomes larger toward the top of the page. As shown in the figure, the illustrated planned value / initial SOC graph 115 is linear (straight line), and is set so that the larger the planned value (forecasted power generation), that is, the better the predicted weather, the larger the initial SOC value. Note that the planned value / initial SOC graph 115 is not limited to the illustrated one, and may have a characteristic that the larger the power generation forecast value (planned value), the larger the initial SOC. For example, the planned value / initial SOC graph 115 may be a nonlinear graph instead of a linear graph. The initial SOC value at the origin (100% (clear)) is set to the lower limit of the initial SOC (a value for ensuring a preset lower limit of the amount of stored power). This lower limit is set to an appropriate value based on, for example, the specifications and scale of the PV power generation facility 20, the actual amount of power generation, and the like.

[0039] Returning to FIG. 2, among the above information stored in the storage unit 110, the initial SOC 116 includes a value of the initial SOC calculated (acquired) based on the power generation forecast value and the planned value / initial SOC graph 115.

[0040] 2, the solar radiation predicted value acquisition unit 120 acquires a solar radiation predicted value for a control day (a solar radiation predicted value (perturbation run), a solar radiation predicted value (ensemble), etc.) from the weather information providing device 60. The solar radiation predicted value acquired by the solar radiation predicted value acquisition unit 120 is stored in the storage unit 110 as a solar radiation predicted value 111.

[0041] The performance value management unit 125 manages the performance values ​​112. The performance value management unit 125 generates and manages the power generation amount performance value 1124 of the performance value 112, for example, by the monitoring and control device 100 itself. In addition, the performance value management unit 125 acquires the solar radiation actual measurement value 1123 of the performance value 112 from, for example, the weather information providing device 60.

[0042] The predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130 calculates a power generation amount prediction value (planned value) of the PV power generation facility 20 for each day of a predetermined period based on the solar radiation prediction value 111 and the actual value 112. The predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130 calculates the predicted power generation amount based on, for example, the specifications and past actual results of the PV power generation facility 20. In addition, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130 calculates the predicted power generation amount based on, for example, a model (machine learning model, rule base) that has learned the relationship between the solar radiation prediction value and the past actual results.

[0043] The clear day power generation amount acquisition unit 135 acquires the clear day power generation amount corresponding to the target day from the actual value 112.

[0044] The initial SOC calculation unit 140 compares the value obtained by dividing the predicted power generation amount 113 by the sunny day power generation amount 114 with the planned value / initial SOC graph 115 to calculate (obtain) the initial SOC corresponding to the predicted power generation amount (planned value).

[0045] The initial SOC setting unit 145 transmits a charge instruction or a discharge instruction for the storage battery 30 to the storage battery control device 40 so that the SOC of the storage battery 30 becomes the initial SOC 116 .

[0046] The power generation output fluctuation suppression unit 150 monitors the amount of power generated by the PV power generation facility 20 and information on the power system 3 sent from the measurement device 70 (frequency, overvoltage / undervoltage, presence or absence of power outage, etc.), absorbs output fluctuations by having the storage battery 30 absorb surplus or shortage power from the PV power generation facility 20, and controls charging and discharging of the storage battery 30 so that the amount of supply from the PV power generation facility 20 to the power system 3 is appropriate (planned value). The power generation output fluctuation suppression unit 150 transmits charge or discharge instructions for the above control to the battery control device 40 as needed.

[0047] 4 is an example of a hardware configuration of an information processing device used to realize the monitoring control device 100. The illustrated information processing device 10 includes a processor 11, a main storage device 12, an auxiliary storage device 13, an input device 14, an output device 15, and a communication device 16. Specific examples of the information processing device 10 include personal computers, office computers, various server devices, general-purpose machines, and the like. The information processing device 10 may be realized in whole or in part using virtual information processing resources provided using a virtualization technology, such as a virtual server provided by a cloud system. The monitoring control device 10 may be realized using a plurality of information processing devices 10 connected to each other so as to be able to communicate with each other.

[0048] In the figure, the processor 11 is configured using, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit), an MPU (Micro Processing Unit), a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), an AI (Artificial Intelligence) chip, etc.

[0049] The main memory device 12 is a device that stores programs and data, and is, for example, a Read Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), or a non-volatile memory (Non Volatile RAM (NVRAM)).

[0050] The auxiliary storage device 13 is, for example, an SSD (Solid State Drive), a hard disk drive, an optical storage device (CD (Compact Disc), DVD (Digital Versatile Disc), etc.), a storage system, an IC card, a read / write device for a recording medium such as an SD card or an optical recording medium, a storage area of ​​a cloud server, etc. Programs and data can be read into the auxiliary storage device 13 via a recording medium reader or a communication device 16. The programs and data stored (memorized) in the auxiliary storage device 13 are read into the main storage device 12 as needed.

[0051] The input device 14 is an interface that accepts input from the outside, and is, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, a card reader, a pen-input tablet, a voice input device, or the like.

[0052] The output device 15 is an interface that outputs various information such as the progress of processing and the results of processing. The output device 15 is, for example, a display device (LCD (Liquid Crystal Display), a graphic card, etc.) that visualizes the various information described above, a device that converts the various information described above into voice (voice output device (speaker, etc.)), or a device that converts the various information described above into text (printer, etc.). Note that, for example, the information processing device 10 may be configured to input and output information to and from other devices via the communication device 16.

[0053] The input device 14 and the output device 15 constitute a user interface for receiving information from the user and presenting information.

[0054] The communication device 16 is a device that realizes communication (wired communication or wireless communication) with other devices via a communication infrastructure such as a communication network 5, and is configured using, for example, a NIC (Network Interface Card), a wireless communication module, a USB module, etc.

[0055] The information processing device 10 may be implemented with, for example, an operating system, a file system, a DBMS (DataBase Management System) (relational database, NoSQL, etc.), a KVS (Key-Value Store), etc.

[0056] The functions of the monitoring control device 100 are realized by the processor 11 of the information processing device 10 reading and executing a program stored in the main memory device 12, or by the functions of the hardware (FPGA, ASIC, AI chip, etc.) that constitutes the monitoring control device 100. The monitoring control device 100 stores the various types of information (data) described above, for example, as tables in a database or files managed by a file system.

[0057] 5 is a flowchart for explaining the process performed by the monitoring and control device 100 when setting the initial SOC of the storage battery 30 (hereinafter referred to as "initial SOC setting process S500"). The initial SOC setting process S500 will be explained below with reference to FIG. 5. It is assumed that at the start of the initial SOC setting process S500, the performance value 112 contains information required for the following processes. The initial SOC setting process S500 is started, for example, when an administrator of the power generation system 1 or the like performs a predetermined start operation on the user interface of the monitoring and control device 100.

[0058] First, the monitoring and control device 100 receives a designation of a target date from a manager or the like of the power generation system 1 via a user interface (S511).

[0059] Next, the solar radiation predicted value acquisition unit 120 of the power generation system 1 acquires the solar radiation predicted value for the target day from the weather information providing device 60, and the acquired solar radiation predicted value is stored in the memory unit 110 as the solar radiation predicted value 111 (S512).

[0060] Next, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130 of the power generation system 1 selects a predicted solar radiation amount value used for calculating the predicted power generation amount (S513). For example, when the acquired solar radiation amount prediction value 111 includes a solar radiation amount prediction value (perturbation run) and a solar radiation amount prediction value (ensemble), the predicted solar radiation amount prediction value (perturbation run) or the solar radiation amount prediction value (ensemble) is selected according to the variation between the members of the solar radiation amount prediction value (ensemble). For example, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130 selects the solar radiation amount prediction value (perturbation run) when the variation is large (for example, when the variation exceeds a preset threshold value), and selects the solar radiation amount prediction value (ensemble) when the variation is small (for example, when the variation is equal to or smaller than the threshold value). The type of the solar radiation amount prediction value used for calculating the predicted power generation amount is not necessarily limited. For example, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130 may select a solar radiation amount prediction value with a narrow confidence interval.

[0061] Next, the predicted power generation amount calculation unit 130 calculates a predicted power generation amount (planned value) based on the selected predicted solar radiation amount value (S514).

[0062] Next, the clear day power generation amount obtaining unit 135 of the power generation system 1 obtains the clear day power generation amount corresponding to the target day from the performance value 112 (S515).

[0063] Next, the initial SOC calculation unit 140 of the power generation system 1 obtains a value by dividing the predicted power generation amount (planned value) by the power generation amount on a clear day, and acquires the initial SOC corresponding to the predicted power generation amount (planned value) by comparing the obtained value with the planned value / initial SOC graph 115 (S516).

[0064] Next, the initial SOC setting unit 145 of the power generation system 1 determines whether the timing for charge / discharge control of the storage battery 30 has arrived (S517). The timing is, for example, a time after sunset on the day before the target day and a predetermined time before sunrise on the target day. When the timing arrives (S517: YES), the initial SOC setting unit 145 transmits a charge instruction or discharge instruction for the storage battery 30 to the storage battery control device 40 so that the SOC of the storage battery 30 becomes the initial SOC 116 (S518). The storage battery control device 40 performs charge control or discharge control based on the charge instruction or discharge instruction so that the SOC of the storage battery 30 becomes the initial SOC.

[0065] As described above, by the monitoring and control device 100 executing the initial SOC setting process S500, the SOC of the storage battery 30 is set to the calculated initial SOC before sunrise on the target day, which makes it possible to more reliably compensate for imbalances that occur when the power generation prediction is incorrect.

[0066] 6A and 6B are diagrams for explaining a mechanism by which the storage battery 30 compensates for the imbalance. As described above, the planned value / initial SOC graph 115 is set so that the larger the planned value (predicted power generation), i.e., the better the weather, the larger the initial SOC (FIG. 3C). Therefore, for example, if the weather on the target day is predicted to be good and a large value is predicted as the planned value (predicted power generation), the initial SOC of the storage battery 30 is set to a large value. Then, for example, if the prediction is wrong and the weather on the target day is bad and the actual power generation value is less than the planned value, sufficient power can be discharged from the storage battery 30 to the power system 3, and the imbalance can be reliably compensated. On the other hand, for example, if the weather on the target day is predicted to be bad and a small value is predicted as the planned value (predicted power generation), the initial SOC of the storage battery 30 is set to a small value. Then, for example, if the prediction is wrong and the weather on the control day is good and the actual power generation value is greater than the planned value, the surplus power can be absorbed (the storage battery 30 is charged) by utilizing the sufficient free capacity of the storage battery 30, and the imbalance can be reliably compensated.

[0067] As described above, according to the power generation system 1 of the present embodiment, in both cases where the weather on the target day was predicted to be good but was actually bad, and where the weather on the target day was predicted to be bad but was actually good, the imbalance can be reliably compensated for by adjusting the shortage or surplus of power by controlling the charging or discharging of the storage battery 30. In addition, since the initial SOC is set based on the planned value / initial SOC 115 appropriately set by the manager of the power generation system 1 or the like, the imbalance can be compensated for while efficiently utilizing the storage battery 30, which has a limited capacity.

[0068] Although the embodiment of the present invention has been described above in detail, the above description is for the purpose of facilitating understanding of the present invention and does not limit the present invention. The present invention may be modified or improved without departing from the spirit thereof, and the present invention naturally includes equivalents thereof. For example, the above embodiment has been described in detail to explain the present invention in an easily understandable manner, and is not necessarily limited to those having all of the configurations described. In addition, it is possible to add, delete, or replace part of the configuration of the above embodiment with other configurations.

[0069] For example, in the above embodiments, a solar power generation facility is used as an example of a power generation facility that utilizes renewable energy. However, the basic concept of setting the initial SOC of the storage battery so that the value increases as the predicted power generation amount increases can be expanded and applied to power generation facilities other than solar power generation facilities, in which the amount of power generation is dependent on uncertain factors such as the natural environment and is difficult to predict. [Explanation of symbols]

[0070] 1 Power generation system, 3 Power system, 5 Communication network, 6 Internet, 7 Weather observation station, 20 PV power generation equipment, 60 Weather information providing device, 70 Measuring device, 100 Monitoring control device (information processing device), 110 Memory unit, 111 Solar radiation forecast value, 112 Actual value, 113 Forecasted power generation amount, 114 Clear day power generation amount, 115 Planned value / initial SOC graph, 116 Initial SOC calculation result, 120 Solar radiation forecast value acquisition unit, 125 Actual value management unit, 130 Forecasted power generation amount calculation unit, 135 Clear day power generation amount acquisition unit, 140 Initial SOC calculation unit, 145 Initial SOC setting unit, 150 Power generation output fluctuation suppression unit, S500 Initial SOC setting process

Claims

1. A processor and a storage device are included. Obtain a predicted solar radiation value, which is the amount of solar radiation at the installation location of the solar power generation facility on a target date, which is the date on which the amount of power generation of the solar power generation facility is to be predicted; A predicted power generation amount is calculated based on the predicted solar radiation amount, which is a predicted value of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility on the target day. an initial SOC, which is a state of charge (SOC) at the start of power generation on the day of the photovoltaic power generation facility of a storage battery that acts to absorb an excess or shortage of power in the amount of power supplied from the photovoltaic power generation facility to a power grid relative to the predicted power generation amount, is set so that the larger the predicted power generation amount, the larger the initial SOC value. Information processing device.

2. 2. The information processing device according to claim 1, A clear day power generation amount is obtained, which is the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility on a past clear day corresponding to the target day; storing a graph showing a correspondence between the value obtained by dividing the predicted power generation amount by the fine day power generation amount and the initial SOC; obtaining the initial SOC by comparing the predicted power generation amount with the graph; Information processing device.

3. 2. The information processing device according to claim 1, The initial SOC is set so that a preset lower limit of the amount of stored electricity is ensured. Information processing device.

4. 2. The information processing device according to claim 1, As the solar radiation predicted value, a solar radiation predicted value (perturbation run) which is a solar radiation predicted value based on a perturbation run, and a solar radiation predicted value (ensemble) which is a solar radiation predicted value based on an ensemble method are obtained; As the solar radiation predicted value, when the variation among the members of the solar radiation predicted value based on the ensemble method is greater than a preset threshold, the solar radiation predicted value (perturbation run) is selected, and when the variation among the members of the solar radiation predicted value based on the ensemble method is equal to or smaller than a preset threshold, the solar radiation predicted value (ensemble) is selected. Information processing device.

5. Solar power generation equipment, an information processing device which acquires a predicted solar radiation value, which is the amount of solar radiation at an installation location of the solar power generation facility on a target day, which is a day on which the amount of power generation of the solar power generation facility is to be predicted, calculates a predicted power generation amount, which is a predicted value of the amount of power generation of the solar power generation facility on the target day, based on the predicted solar radiation value, and sets an initial SOC, which is the SOC (State Of Charge) at the start of power generation of the solar power generation facility on that day, of a storage battery which acts to absorb an excess or shortage of the amount of power supplied from the solar power generation facility to a power grid with respect to the predicted power generation amount, so that the larger the predicted power generation amount, the larger the initial SOC becomes; The storage battery; A power generation system comprising:

6. An information processing device including a processor and a storage device, A step of acquiring a predicted solar radiation value, which is the amount of solar radiation at an installation location of the solar power generation facility on a target day, which is a day on which the amount of power generation of the solar power generation facility is to be predicted; calculating a predicted power generation amount, which is a predicted value of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility on the target day, based on the predicted solar radiation amount value; A step of setting an initial SOC, which is a state of charge (SOC) at the start of power generation on the day of the photovoltaic power generation facility of a storage battery that acts to absorb an excess or shortage of power in the amount of power supplied from the photovoltaic power generation facility to a power grid with respect to the predicted power generation amount, so that the initial SOC becomes larger as the predicted power generation amount becomes larger; An information processing method.

7. 7. An information processing method according to claim 6, The information processing device, acquiring a clear day power generation amount, which is the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation facility on a past clear day corresponding to the target day; storing a graph showing a correspondence between a value obtained by dividing the predicted power generation amount by the fine day power generation amount and the initial SOC; obtaining the initial SOC by comparing the predicted power generation amount with the graph; The information processing method further comprises:

8. 7. An information processing method according to claim 6, The information processing device sets the initial SOC so that a preset lower limit of the amount of stored power is ensured; The information processing method further comprises:

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