Economic evaluation method, system, medium and equipment for electric-hydrogen complementary energy system

Abstract

The present invention discloses an economic evaluation method, system, medium and equipment for an electric-hydrogen complementary energy system, which obtains operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of an electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in an industrial park; based on the obtained operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park, an operation scheduling optimization model of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park is established with the goal of minimizing the operation cost within the scheduling cycle; in a sequential Monte Carlo simulation framework, operation simulation parameters are initialized; the electric load, heat load and by-product hydrogen output of the park are randomly sampled and simulated by the Latin hypercube sampling method; the established operation scheduling optimization model is used to calculate the operation status of the park in each time period, and economic indicators are counted to evaluate the economy of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park, so as to provide a decision-making basis for the planning scheme of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of hydrogen energy application, and specifically relates to an economic evaluation method, system, medium and equipment for an electric-hydrogen complementary energy system. Background Art

[0002] Clean and low-carbon energy and power systems and transportation systems have become an inevitable trend for my country's sustainable and high-quality development. Industrial parks are important carriers for the transformation and upgrading of block economy to industrial clusters, and are also important sources of carbon emissions. However, industrial by-product hydrogen has low purity and complex composition, and usually only has inefficient utilization methods such as combustion, or even directly sent to the flare for emptying. If the utilization efficiency of by-product hydrogen can be improved, the carbon emissions of industrial parks can be effectively reduced. In this context, the establishment of an industrial park electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system based on the utilization of by-product hydrogen is of great significance to the low-carbon transformation of my country's transportation and energy and power systems. On the one hand, by purifying, storing and re-distributing by-product hydrogen, hydrogen can be used to generate electricity for industrial parks through fuel cells. Through waste heat recovery technology, it can also provide heating for the park while improving the energy utilization rate of hydrogen, thereby reducing the consumption of natural gas and coal; on the other hand, hydrogen can also be directly used for transportation within industrial parks, such as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, etc., to reduce gasoline consumption and help high-energy-consuming enterprises decarbonize.

[0003] However, the purchase cost of fuel cells and hydrogen storage equipment is high. If the equipment capacity is too large, it is difficult to recover the cost. If it is too small, the by-product hydrogen may not be fully utilized. Therefore, it is important to determine whether an investment plan is feasible before investing in construction.

[0004] At present, there is still a lack of economic assessment methods for the electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in industrial parks. Summary of the invention

[0005] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide an economic evaluation method, system, medium and equipment for an electric-hydrogen complementary energy system in response to the deficiencies in the above-mentioned prior art, accurately evaluate the investment economic feasibility of by-product hydrogen purification equipment, hydrogen storage equipment and hydrogen fuel cells, provide technical support for evaluating the economic feasibility of planning schemes for electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy systems in industrial parks, provide decision-making basis for planning schemes for electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy systems in industrial parks, and promote low-carbon transformation and industrial upgrading.

[0006] The present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0007] The embodiment of the present invention provides an economic evaluation method for an electricity-hydrogen complementary energy system, comprising the following steps:

[0008] S1. Obtain the operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park;

[0009] S2. Based on the operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the industrial park electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system obtained in step S1, an operation scheduling optimization model of the industrial park electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system is established with the goal of minimizing the operation cost within the scheduling cycle;

[0010] S3. In the sequential Monte Carlo simulation framework, the operation simulation parameters are initialized; the electric load, thermal load and by-product hydrogen production of the industrial park are randomly sampled and simulated using the Latin hypercube sampling method; the operation scheduling optimization model established in step S2 is used to calculate the operation status of the industrial park in each time period, and the economic indicators are statistically analyzed to evaluate the economic feasibility of the industrial park's electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system.

[0011] Specifically, in step S1, the operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information are specifically:

[0012] Equipment parameters, including the purchase cost, annual operation and maintenance costs, operating life, operating parameters of hydrogen purification equipment, hydrogen storage tanks, fuel cells, and the operating parameters of self-contained coal-fired power plants, battery energy storage systems, and heat storage tanks; load parameters, including the historical electrical load, thermal load, and by-product hydrogen production of the industrial park; economic parameters, including the discount rate.

[0013] Specifically, in step S2, the objective function of running the scheduling optimization model is as follows:

[0014]

[0015] in, represents a set of scheduling periods; Δt represents a time period; C grid Represents the cost coefficient of purchasing electricity from the external power grid; C tp It represents the cost coefficient of power generation from a self-contained coal-fired power station; Represents the price coefficient of carbon trading; e represents the cost coefficient of removing the electric load; h Represents the cost coefficient of removing heat load; P t grid P represents the power obtained from the power grid in the park during period t; t tp represents the power generated by the self-provided coal-fired power station during time period t; P t fc represents the power generated by the fuel cell during time period t; P t ls Indicates the electrical load removed during time period t; Represents the heat load removed during period t.

[0016] Specifically, in step S2, the operation constraints of the operation scheduling optimization model include:

[0017] The hydrogen energy subsystem includes the upper limit of the purified hydrogen obtained in each period, which is to purify all the byproduct hydrogen in that period, the change of the hydrogen storage capacity of the hydrogen storage tank over time, and the upper and lower limits of the hydrogen storage capacity;

[0018] The power subsystem, including the battery storage capacity over time, the upper and lower constraints of the battery storage system, the state of charge and discharge, and the active / reactive power balance constraints of the industrial park;

[0019] The thermal subsystem, including the change of heat storage capacity of the heat storage tank over time, the heat balance constraints of the park and the power change of the self-contained coal-fired power plant are subject to the limitation of the unit ramp rate.

[0020] Furthermore, the constraints of the hydrogen energy subsystem are as follows:

[0021]

[0022]

[0023]

[0024]

[0025] in, P represents the mass of hydrogen consumed by the fuel cell during period t; t fc represents the power generation of the fuel cell during time period t; η H2P Indicates the conversion factor between hydrogen mass and electrical power; represents the mass of hydrogen extracted during time period t; represents the mass of by-product hydrogen produced in the industrial park during period t; η phr Indicates the purification efficiency of by-product hydrogen; LOH t represents the hydrogen storage capacity of the hydrogen storage tank in time period t; γ represents the dissipation rate of hydrogen in the hydrogen storage tank; LOH min / LOH max Indicates the minimum / maximum value of the hydrogen storage level in the hydrogen storage tank;

[0026] The constraints of the power subsystem are as follows:

[0027]

[0028]

[0029]

[0030]

[0031]

[0032]

[0033]

[0034]

[0035] Among them, SOC t represents the storage state of the battery energy storage system in time period t; γ b Represents the self-discharge rate of the battery energy storage system; η ch / η dis Indicates the charging efficiency / discharging efficiency of the battery energy storage system; P t ch / P t dis Represents the charging power / discharging power of the battery energy storage system in time period t; SOC min / SOC max Indicates the minimum / maximum value of the battery energy storage system; P fc,max Indicates the maximum power generated by the fuel cell; P ch,max / P dis,max Indicates the maximum value of charging power / discharging power; is a 0-1 variable; it indicates the charging / discharging state of the battery energy storage system in time period t. If it is 1, it indicates charging / discharging; P t tp represents the power generation of the self-contained coal-fired power station in time period t; Indicates the active / reactive load size of the park in time period t; represents the power generated by the static reactive generator in time period t; α represents the proportionality coefficient between active and reactive load shedding;

[0036] The constraints of the thermal subsystem are as follows:

[0037]

[0038]

[0039]

[0040]

[0041]

[0042]

[0043] in, represents the heating power of the fuel cell in time period t, η fc represents the heating efficiency of the fuel cell, represents the heating power of the self-provided coal-fired power plant in time period t, η tp Indicates the heat-to-electricity ratio of a self-contained coal-fired power plant, SOH t represents the heat storage capacity of the heat storage tank in time period t, η hwt represents the heat loss coefficient of the heat storage tank, It indicates the heat output or input of the heat storage tank in time period t. If it is greater than 0, it indicates input heat, and if it is less than 0, it indicates output heat. represents the heat load of the park in period t, P tp ,max / P tp,min Indicates the upper and lower limits of power generation of self-contained coal-fired power plants; ΔP tp Indicates the ramp rate of a captive coal-fired power plant.

[0044] Specifically, in step S3, the economic indicators include equivalent annual cost ACS, annual operating income indicator REV, net present value NPV, internal rate of return IRR and investment payback period PBP.

[0045] Furthermore, the calculation formula of the equal annual value cost is as follows:

[0046] ACS=CRF·C cap +C opt +C rep

[0047] Where ACS represents the equivalent annual cost of the system; C cap represents the initial investment cost of the planning scheme; CRF represents the capital recovery factor; C opt represents the operating cost of the system, including the power purchase cost of the external power grid and the penalty cost of load loss; C rep The maintenance cost of the system;

[0048] The annual operating income indicator REV is:

[0049] REV=ψ e +ψ C

[0050] Among them, ψ e represents the electrical gain, ψ C represents carbon benefits;

[0051] The net present value NPV is:

[0052]

[0053] Among them, CI t is the cash inflow in year t, CO tis the cash outflow in year t, and R is the discount rate

[0054] When the net present value NPV = 0, R is the internal rate of return IRR;

[0055] The payback period PBP is:

[0056]

[0057] Among them, n represents the number of years in which the present value of cumulative net cash flow becomes positive, NC n It represents the present value of the cumulative net cash flow in the nth year.

[0058] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an economic evaluation system for an electricity-hydrogen complementary energy system, comprising:

[0059] Information collection module, which obtains the operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the industrial park's electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system;

[0060] The scheduling optimization module establishes an operation scheduling optimization model for the industrial park's electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system based on the operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the industrial park's electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system obtained by the information module, with the goal of minimizing the operation cost within the scheduling cycle;

[0061] The evaluation module, under the framework of sequential Monte Carlo simulation, gives a planning scheme and initializes the operation simulation parameters; then, the Latin hypercube sampling method is used to perform random sampling simulation on the park's electrical load, thermal load and by-product hydrogen production; the operation scheduling optimization model established by the operation scheduling optimization module calculates the park's operating status in each time period, statistics economic indicators, and evaluates the economic feasibility of the industrial park's electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system.

[0062] In a third aspect, a computer device comprises a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the steps of the above-mentioned heart rate measurement method when executing the computer program.

[0063] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, including a computer program, which implements the steps of the above-mentioned heart rate measurement method when executed by a processor.

[0064] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has at least the following beneficial effects:

[0065] The economic evaluation method of the electric-hydrogen complementary energy system of the present invention is based on a sequential Monte Carlo simulation framework and an operation scheduling model of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system of an industrial park with the goal of minimizing operation costs; based on historical data of key parameters of system operation, a Latin hypercube sampling method is used to generate multiple groups of operation scenarios, so that the operation simulation of the system is as consistent as possible with the actual situation; the sampling scenarios and the scheduling model are combined through the sequential Monte Carlo simulation framework, and when the convergence conditions are reached, the various economic evaluation indicators of the system are calculated to realize the economic evaluation of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system of the industrial park, which can effectively solve the economic evaluation problem of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system of the industrial park.

[0066] Furthermore, the acquisition of relevant information such as equipment parameters, load parameters, and economic parameters can provide data support for the economic evaluation of the electric-hydrogen complementary energy system.

[0067] Furthermore, by taking minimizing the operating cost within the scheduling cycle as the objective function, the operating economy of the investment plan can be considered and support can be provided for subsequent economic evaluation.

[0068] Furthermore, the setting of hydrogen energy subsystem operating constraints, power subsystem operating constraints and thermal subsystem operating constraints can provide operating boundaries for the electric-hydrogen complementary energy system.

[0069] Furthermore, the constraints of the hydrogen energy subsystem in step S2 can specify the operating range of the hydrogen energy equipment to avoid exceeding the equipment capacity; the constraints of the power subsystem can ensure that the power equipment operates within the capacity range and maintains a state that conforms to the actual situation (for example, the battery cannot be in the charging and discharging state at the same time), and ensure power balance; the constraints of the thermal subsystem can make the storage capacity of the heat storage tank vary within the capacity range and meet the supply and demand balance.

[0070] Furthermore, economic indicators including equivalent annual cost ACS, annual operating income indicator REV, net present value NPV, internal rate of return IRR and payback period PBP can analyze the economic feasibility of investment plans from different angles, comprehensively and at multiple levels.

[0071] Furthermore, the equivalent annual cost ACS can measure the economic benefits of the system; the annual operating return index REV can compare the advantages and disadvantages of different planning schemes; the net present value NPV and the internal rate of return IRR can measure the economic feasibility of the investment plan. The larger the NPV and IRR, the better the investment economy; the payback period PBP can measure the speed of investment recovery.

[0072] In summary, the present invention can accurately evaluate the economic feasibility of investment plans and provide technical support for evaluating the economic feasibility of planning plans for electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy systems in industrial parks.

[0073] The technical solution of the present invention is further described in detail below through the accompanying drawings and embodiments. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0074] Figure 1 This is a typical structural schematic diagram of an industrial park electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system according to the present invention;

[0075] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the process of the present invention;

[0076] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the sequential Monte Carlo evaluation framework used in the present invention;

[0077] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of a computer device provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0078] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0079] In the description of the present invention, it should be understood that the terms “include” and “comprise” indicate the presence of described features, wholes, steps, operations, elements and / or components, but do not exclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, wholes, steps, operations, elements, components and / or collections thereof.

[0080] It should also be understood that the terms used in the present specification are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the present invention. As used in the present specification and the appended claims, the singular forms "a", "an" and "the" are intended to include plural forms unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.

[0081] It should be further understood that the term "and / or" used in the present specification and the appended claims refers to any combination of one or more of the associated listed items and all possible combinations, and includes these combinations. For example, A and / or B can represent: A exists alone, A and B exist at the same time, and B exists alone. In addition, the character " / " in this article generally indicates that the associated objects are in an "or" relationship.

[0082] It should be understood that, although the terms first, second, third, etc. may be used to describe preset ranges, etc. in the embodiments of the present invention, these preset ranges should not be limited to these terms. These terms are only used to distinguish preset ranges from each other. For example, without departing from the scope of the embodiments of the present invention, the first preset range may also be referred to as the second preset range, and similarly, the second preset range may also be referred to as the first preset range.

[0083] The word "if" as used herein may be interpreted as "at the time of" or "when" or "in response to determining" or "in response to detecting", depending on the context. Similarly, the phrases "if it is determined" or "if (stated condition or event) is detected" may be interpreted as "when it is determined" or "in response to determining" or "when detecting (stated condition or event)" or "in response to detecting (stated condition or event)", depending on the context.

[0084] Various structural schematic diagrams according to the disclosed embodiments of the present invention are shown in the accompanying drawings. These figures are not drawn to scale, and some details are magnified and some details may be omitted for the purpose of clear expression. The shapes of various regions and layers shown in the figures and the relative sizes and positional relationships therebetween are only exemplary, and may deviate in practice due to manufacturing tolerances or technical limitations, and those skilled in the art may design regions / layers with different shapes, sizes, and relative positions according to actual needs.

[0085] See also Figure 1 The present invention provides an industrial park electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system, which is composed of a hydrogen purification device, a hydrogen storage tank, a fuel cell, a heat storage tank, a battery energy storage system and a self-contained coal-fired power station. Among them, the fuel cell, the battery energy storage system and the self-contained coal-fired power station are connected through the same busbar, connected to the power load in the industrial park, and generate power interaction with the external power grid through a step-up transformer; the hydrogen purification device takes industrial by-product hydrogen as input, and the output port is connected to the input port of the hydrogen storage tank; the output port of the hydrogen storage tank is connected to the input port of the fuel cell; an output port of the fuel cell is connected to the input port of the heat storage tank; an output port of the self-contained coal-fired power station is connected to the input port of the heat storage tank; the output port of the heat storage tank is connected to the heat load of the industrial park.

[0086] The specific structural characteristics of the industrial park's electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system are as follows:

[0087] A self-contained coal-fired power plant consists of a boiler, a steam turbine, a generator and other auxiliary components, which can convert the chemical energy of coal into electrical energy. The waste heat generated in the process is stored in a heat storage tank;

[0088] The battery energy storage system consists of battery packs, battery management systems, power conversion systems, collection lines and other auxiliary equipment, and is used for the storage, conversion and release of electrical energy;

[0089] The hydrogen purification device is used to separate hydrogen from other impurities in industrial by-product hydrogen, and the purified hydrogen is passed into the hydrogen storage tank for storage;

[0090] The hydrogen storage tank is a pressure vessel for storing gaseous hydrogen. It uses high-pressure storage to store hydrogen, including necessary safety accessories and pressure detection and display instruments, etc. It can quickly charge and discharge hydrogen at room temperature and supply hydrogen to the hydrogen filling machine;

[0091] A fuel cell is composed of positive and negative electrodes, an electrolyte membrane and a current collector. It can convert the chemical energy of hydrogen into electrical energy through an electrochemical reaction. The waste heat generated in the process is recovered and stored in a heat storage tank through a heat collection tube.

[0092] A heat storage tank is a container for storing heat, and water or molten salt is usually used as the heat storage material.

[0093] The planning scheme described in the present invention only includes the capacity of hydrogen purification equipment, hydrogen storage tanks and fuel cells. This is because in reality, the industrial park itself already has its own coal-fired power plant, battery energy storage system and heat storage tanks, so the present invention no longer considers this part of the investment cost.

[0094] See also Figure 2 The present invention provides an economic evaluation method for an industrial park electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system, which evaluates the economic feasibility of a planning scheme through medium- and long-term operation simulation, including the following steps:

[0095] S1. Obtain relevant information required for planning, operation scenario simulation and economic evaluation of the industrial park's electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system;

[0096] Specifically include:

[0097] (1) Equipment parameters, such as the purchase cost, annual operation and maintenance cost, operating life, and operating parameters of hydrogen purification equipment, hydrogen storage tanks, and fuel cells; operating parameters of self-contained coal-fired power plants, battery energy storage systems, and heat storage tanks;

[0098] (2) Load parameters, such as the historical electrical load, thermal load, and byproduct hydrogen production of the industrial park;

[0099] (3) Economic parameters, such as discount rates.

[0100] S2. With the goal of minimizing operating costs, establish an operation and scheduling optimization model for the industrial park's electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system;

[0101] 1) Objective function

[0102] The goal of the operation and scheduling model of the electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in industrial parks is to minimize the operating cost within the scheduling cycle.

[0103] The objective function is expressed as follows:

[0104]

[0105] The first part represents the cost of purchasing electricity from the power grid for the park, the second part represents the cost of generating electricity from the park's own coal-fired power plant, the third part represents the carbon benefits that can be obtained from the park's fuel cell power generation, the fourth part represents the cost of cutting off the electrical load, and the fifth part represents the cost of cutting off the thermal load.

[0106] in, represents a set of scheduling periods; Δt represents a time period; C grid Represents the cost coefficient of purchasing electricity from the external power grid; C tp It represents the cost coefficient of power generation from a self-contained coal-fired power station; Represents the price coefficient of carbon trading; e represents the cost coefficient of removing the electric load; h represents the cost factor for removing the heat load; P represents the power obtained from the power grid in the park during period t; t tp represents the power generated by the self-provided coal-fired power station during time period t; P t fc represents the power generated by the fuel cell during time period t; P t ls Indicates the electrical load removed during time period t; Represents the heat load removed during period t.

[0107] 2) Operational constraints

[0108] The operation of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in industrial parks needs to meet a series of conditions:

[0109] (1) Hydrogen energy subsystem

[0110]

[0111]

[0112]

[0113]

[0114] in, P represents the mass of hydrogen consumed by the fuel cell during period t; t fcrepresents the power generation of the fuel cell during time period t; η H2P Indicates the conversion factor between hydrogen mass and electrical power; represents the mass of hydrogen extracted during time period t; represents the mass of by-product hydrogen produced in the industrial park during period t; η phr Indicates the purification efficiency of by-product hydrogen; LOH t represents the hydrogen storage capacity of the hydrogen storage tank in time period t; γ represents the dissipation rate of hydrogen in the hydrogen storage tank; LOH min / LOH max Indicates the minimum / maximum value of the hydrogen storage level of the hydrogen storage tank. Formula (3) indicates that the upper limit of the purified hydrogen obtained in each period is to purify all the byproduct hydrogen in that period. Formula (4) indicates the change of the hydrogen storage capacity of the hydrogen storage tank over time, and its storage capacity is jointly determined by the mass of hydrogen leaked in each period, the mass of purified hydrogen and the mass of hydrogen consumed by the fuel cell; Formula (5) indicates the upper and lower limits of the hydrogen storage capacity.

[0115] (2) Power subsystem

[0116]

[0117]

[0118]

[0119]

[0120]

[0121]

[0122]

[0123]

[0124] Among them, SOC t represents the storage state of the battery energy storage system in time period t; γ b Represents the self-discharge rate of the battery energy storage system; η ch / η dis Indicates the charging efficiency / discharging efficiency of the battery energy storage system; P t ch / P t dis Represents the charging power / discharging power of the battery energy storage system in time period t; SOC min / SOC max Indicates the minimum / maximum value of the battery energy storage system; P fc,max Indicates the maximum power generated by the fuel cell; P ch,max / Pdis,max Indicates the maximum value of charging power / discharging power; is a 0-1 variable; it indicates the charging / discharging state of the battery energy storage system in time period t. If it is 1, it indicates charging / discharging; P t tp represents the power generation of the self-contained coal-fired power station in time period t; Indicates the active / reactive load size of the park in time period t; represents the power generated by the static reactive generator in time period t; α represents the proportional coefficient between active and reactive load shedding. Formula (6) represents the change of the storage capacity of the battery energy storage system over time, and its storage capacity is jointly determined by the leakage power, charging behavior and discharging behavior; Formula (8) represents the upper and lower limit constraints of the battery energy storage system; Formula (11) indicates that the charging state and the discharging state are mutually exclusive. If the battery is in the charging state, the discharge power must be 0, and vice versa; Formulas (12) and (13) are the active / reactive power balance constraints of the industrial park.

[0125] (3) Thermal subsystem

[0126]

[0127]

[0128]

[0129]

[0130]

[0131]

[0132] in, represents the heating power of the fuel cell in time period t, η fc represents the heating efficiency of the fuel cell, represents the heating power of the self-provided coal-fired power plant in time period t, η tp Indicates the heat-to-electricity ratio of a self-contained coal-fired power plant, SOH t represents the heat storage capacity of the heat storage tank in time period t, η hwt represents the heat loss coefficient of the heat storage tank, It indicates the heat output or input of the heat storage tank in time period t. If it is greater than 0, it indicates input heat, and if it is less than 0, it indicates output heat. represents the heat load of the park in period t, P tp ,max / P tp,min Indicates the upper and lower limits of power generation of self-contained coal-fired power plants; ΔP tpIndicates the ramp rate of the self-contained coal-fired power plant. Equation (15) shows the change of the heat storage capacity of the heat storage tank over time, which is similar to the hydrogen storage tank; Equation (16) shows the heat balance constraint of the park; Equation (19) shows that the power change of the self-contained coal-fired power plant is subject to the limit of the ramp rate of the unit.

[0133] S3. Evaluate the system economics under the framework of Sequential Monte Carlo simulation.

[0134] See also Figure 3 First, a planning scheme is given and the operation simulation parameters are initialized; then, the Latin hypercube sampling method is used to perform random sampling simulation on the park's electric load, thermal load and by-product hydrogen production; then, the operation scheduling optimization model is used to calculate the park's operating status in each period, and the relevant economic indicators are statistically analyzed. The various economic evaluation indicators are shown in Table 1.

[0135] Table 1 System economic evaluation indicators

[0136]

[0137] The detailed calculation formulas for each economic evaluation index are as follows:

[0138] (1) Equal annual cost

[0139] The cost of the industrial park's low-carbon integrated energy system with complementary hydrogen and electricity mainly includes three parts: equipment planning investment cost, system operation cost and system maintenance cost. Here, the equivalent annual value cost is used to measure the economic benefits of the system. The calculation formula for the equivalent annual value cost is as follows:

[0140] ACS=CRF·C cap +C opt +C rep

[0141] Where ACS represents the equivalent annual cost of the system; C cap represents the initial investment cost of the planning scheme; CRF represents the capital recovery factor; C opt represents the operating cost of the system, including the power purchase cost of the external power grid and the penalty cost of load loss; C rep The maintenance cost of the system.

[0142] The calculation formula of CRF is:

[0143]

[0144] Wherein, T represents the life cycle of hydrogen energy equipment in years; R represents the discount rate.

[0145] (2) Annual operating income

[0146] In order to compare the economic benefits of different planning schemes, the annual operating revenue (REV) indicator is introduced. Its calculation formula is:

[0147] REV=ψ e +ψ C

[0148] Among them, ψ e represents the electrical gain, ψ C It is worth noting that the electricity benefit in the present invention refers to the electricity purchase cost saved due to the power generation of fuel cells.

[0149] (3) Net present value

[0150] During the project calculation period, the algebraic sum of the present values ​​of net cash flows in each year calculated using the industry benchmark discount rate or other set discount rates. The net present value method is a method of evaluating the pros and cons of a plan based on the size of the net present value. If the net present value is greater than zero, the plan is feasible, and the larger the net present value, the better the plan and the better the investment benefits. The calculation formula is:

[0151]

[0152] Among them, CI t is the cash inflow in year t, CO t is the cash outflow in year t, and R represents the discount rate.

[0153] (4) Internal rate of return

[0154] Internal rate of return is the rate of return that an investment aspires to achieve. The larger the index, the better. Generally speaking, when the internal rate of return is greater than or equal to the benchmark rate of return, the project is feasible. The calculation method is that the R that makes the net present value NPV = 0 is the internal rate of return, recorded as IRR.

[0155] (5) Payback period

[0156] The payback period is the time required for the accumulated economic benefits to equal the initial investment costs. It can be divided into static payback period and dynamic payback period. The static payback period is the time required to recover the entire investment with the net income of the project without considering the time value of money. The dynamic payback period is calculated by converting the net cash flow of each year of the investment project into present value according to the benchmark rate of return, which is the fundamental difference between it and the static payback period.

[0157] Investors are generally very concerned about the speed of investment recovery. In order to reduce investment risks, they hope to recover their investment as soon as possible. The dynamic investment recovery period is a commonly used economic evaluation indicator. The dynamic investment recovery period makes up for the shortcoming of the static investment recovery period that does not take into account the time value of funds, making it more in line with the actual situation.

[0158] The present invention adopts a dynamic investment payback period, and the calculation formula is:

[0159]

[0160] Among them, PBP represents the investment payback period, n represents the number of years when the present value of cumulative net cash flow becomes positive, NC n It represents the present value of the cumulative net cash flow in the nth year.

[0161] It is planned to invest in the construction of an electric-hydrogen complementary energy system in an industrial park, and obtain the relevant information required for the economic evaluation of the electric-hydrogen complementary energy system. Table 2 shows the main economic parameters of hydrogen energy equipment, and Table 3 shows the technical parameters of each equipment and other required parameters.

[0162] Table 2 Main economic parameters of hydrogen energy equipment

[0163]

[0164] Table 3 Equipment technical parameters

[0165]

[0166] In another embodiment of the present invention, a system for evaluating the economic performance of an industrial park's electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system is provided. The system can be used to implement the above-mentioned method for evaluating the economic performance of an industrial park's electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system. Specifically, the system for evaluating the economic performance of an industrial park's electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system includes an information collection module, a scheduling optimization module, and an evaluation module.

[0167] Among them, the information collection module obtains the operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park;

[0168] The scheduling optimization module establishes an operation scheduling optimization model for the industrial park's electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system based on the operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the industrial park's electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system obtained by the information module, with the goal of minimizing the operation cost within the scheduling cycle;

[0169] The evaluation module, under the framework of sequential Monte Carlo simulation, gives a planning scheme and initializes the operation simulation parameters; then, the Latin hypercube sampling method is used to perform random sampling simulation on the park's electrical load, thermal load and by-product hydrogen production; the operation scheduling optimization model established by the operation scheduling optimization module calculates the park's operating status in each time period, statistics economic indicators, and evaluates the economic feasibility of the industrial park's electricity-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system.

[0170] In another embodiment of the present invention, a terminal device is provided, which includes a processor and a memory, wherein the memory is used to store a computer program, the computer program includes program instructions, and the processor is used to execute the program instructions stored in the computer storage medium. The processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gates or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. It is the computing core and control core of the terminal, which is suitable for implementing one or more instructions, and is specifically suitable for loading and executing one or more instructions to implement the corresponding method flow or corresponding function; the processor described in the embodiment of the present invention can be used for the operation of the economic evaluation method of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park, including:

[0171] Obtain operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park; based on the obtained operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park, establish an operation scheduling optimization model of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park with the goal of minimizing the operation cost within the scheduling cycle; in the framework of sequential Monte Carlo simulation, a planning scheme is given and the operation simulation parameters are initialized; then, the Latin hypercube sampling method is used to perform random sampling simulation on the park's electric load, thermal load and by-product hydrogen production; the established operation scheduling optimization model is used to calculate the park's operation status in each time period, statistically analyze economic indicators, and evaluate the economy of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park.

[0172] In another embodiment of the present invention, the present invention further provides a storage medium, specifically a computer-readable storage medium (Memory), which is a memory device in a terminal device for storing programs and data. It is understandable that the computer-readable storage medium here can include both the built-in storage medium in the terminal device and the extended storage medium supported by the terminal device. The computer-readable storage medium provides a storage space, which stores the operating system of the terminal. In addition, one or more instructions suitable for being loaded and executed by the processor are also stored in the storage space, and these instructions can be one or more computer programs (including program codes). It should be noted that the computer-readable storage medium here can be a high-speed RAM memory or a non-volatile memory (Non-Volatile Memory), such as at least one disk memory.

[0173] The processor may load and execute one or more instructions stored in a computer-readable storage medium to implement the corresponding steps of the method for economic evaluation of an industrial park electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the above embodiment; the processor may load and execute one or more instructions in the computer-readable storage medium as follows:

[0174] Obtain operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park; based on the obtained operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park, establish an operation scheduling optimization model of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park with the goal of minimizing the operation cost within the scheduling cycle; in the framework of sequential Monte Carlo simulation, a planning scheme is given and the operation simulation parameters are initialized; then, the Latin hypercube sampling method is used to perform random sampling simulation on the park's electric load, thermal load and by-product hydrogen production; the established operation scheduling optimization model is used to calculate the park's operation status in each time period, statistically analyze economic indicators, and evaluate the economy of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park.

[0175] Figure 4 Schematic diagram of a computer device provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 4 As shown, the computer device 60 of this embodiment includes: a processor 61, a memory 62, and a computer program 63 stored in the memory 62 and executable on the processor 61. When the computer program 63 is executed by the processor 61, the heart rate measurement method in the embodiment is implemented. To avoid repetition, it is not described one by one here. Alternatively, when the computer program 63 is executed by the processor 61, the functions of each model / unit in the heart rate measurement device in the embodiment are implemented. To avoid repetition, it is not described one by one here.

[0176] The computer device 60 may be a computing device such as a desktop computer, a notebook, a PDA, or a cloud server. The computer device 60 may include, but is not limited to, a processor 61 and a memory 62. Those skilled in the art will appreciate that Figure 4 This is only an example of the computer device 60 and does not constitute a limitation of the computer device 60. It may include more or fewer components than shown in the figure, or a combination of certain components, or different components. For example, the computer device may also include input and output devices, network access devices, buses, etc.

[0177] The processor 61 may be a central processing unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. A general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or any conventional processor, etc.

[0178] The memory 62 may be an internal storage unit of the computer device 60, such as a hard disk or memory of the computer device 60. The memory 62 may also be an external storage device of the computer device 60, such as a plug-in hard disk, a smart media card (SMC), a secure digital (SD) card, a flash card, etc., equipped on the computer device 60.

[0179] Furthermore, the memory 62 may include both an internal storage unit of the computer device 60 and an external storage device. The memory 62 is used to store computer programs and other programs and data required by the computer device. The memory 62 may also be used to temporarily store data that has been output or is to be output.

[0180] In summary, the present invention provides an economic evaluation method and system for an electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in an industrial park. The method and system are based on a sequential Monte Carlo simulation framework and an operation scheduling model for an electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in an industrial park with the goal of minimizing operation costs. Based on historical data of key parameters of system operation, a Latin hypercube sampling method is used to generate multiple groups of operation scenarios, so that the operation simulation of the system is as consistent as possible with the actual situation. The sampling scenarios and the scheduling model are combined through a sequential Monte Carlo simulation framework. When the convergence conditions are met, the various economic evaluation indicators of the system are calculated to realize the economic evaluation of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park, which can effectively solve the problem of economic evaluation of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park.

[0181] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application may adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application may adopt the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that contain computer-usable program code.

[0182] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0183] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0184] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, so that the instructions executed on the computer or other programmable device provide for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0185] The above contents are only for explaining the technical idea of ​​the present invention and cannot be used to limit the protection scope of the present invention. Any changes made on the basis of the technical solution in accordance with the technical idea proposed by the present invention shall fall within the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. An economic evaluation method for an electricity-hydrogen complementary energy system, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: S1. Obtain the operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park; S2. Based on the operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the industrial park electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system obtained in step S1, an operation scheduling optimization model of the industrial park electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system is established with the goal of minimizing the operation cost within the scheduling cycle. The objective function of the operation scheduling optimization model is as follows: in, represents a set of scheduling periods; Indicates a period of time; Represents the cost coefficient of purchasing electricity from the external power grid; It represents the cost coefficient of power generation from a self-contained coal-fired power station; represents the price coefficient of carbon trading; represents the cost factor for removing the electrical load; represents the cost factor for removing the heat load; Indicates time period t The power the park draws from the grid; Indicates time period t Power generated by self-contained coal-fired power stations; Indicates time period t The power generated by the fuel cell; Indicates time period t The electrical load removed; Indicates time period t Heat load removed; The operating constraints for running the scheduling optimization model include: The hydrogen energy subsystem includes the upper limit of the purified hydrogen obtained in each period, which is to purify all the byproduct hydrogen in that period, the change of the hydrogen storage capacity of the hydrogen storage tank over time, and the upper and lower limits of the hydrogen storage capacity; The power subsystem, including the battery storage capacity over time, the upper and lower constraints of the battery storage system, the state of charge and discharge, and the active / reactive power balance constraints of the industrial park; The thermal subsystem, including the change of the heat storage capacity of the heat storage tank over time, the heat balance constraint of the park and the power change of the self-contained coal-fired power plant subject to the limit of the unit ramp rate; The constraints of the hydrogen energy subsystem are as follows: in, Indicates time period t The mass of hydrogen consumed by the fuel cell; Indicates time period t The power generated by the fuel cell; Indicates the conversion factor between hydrogen mass and electrical power; Indicates time period t The quality of hydrogen extracted; Indicates time period t The quality of by-product hydrogen produced in industrial parks; Indicates the purification efficiency of by-product hydrogen; Indicates time period t The hydrogen storage capacity of the hydrogen storage tank; Indicates the dissipation rate of hydrogen in the hydrogen storage tank; / Indicates the minimum / maximum value of the hydrogen storage level in the hydrogen storage tank; The constraints of the power subsystem are as follows: in, Indicates the battery energy storage system in the time period t The state of charge; Indicates the self-discharge rate of the battery energy storage system; / Indicates the charging efficiency / discharging efficiency of the battery energy storage system; / Indicates the battery energy storage system in the time period t Charging power / discharging power; / Indicates the minimum / maximum value of the battery energy storage system's stored power; Indicates the maximum value of the fuel cell power generation; / Indicates the maximum value of charging power / discharging power; / It is a 0-1 variable; it indicates that the battery energy storage system is in the period t The charge / discharge status, if it is 1, it means charging / discharging; Indicates that the self-provided coal-fired power station is in the period t The power generation capacity; / Indicates the park is in the period t Active / reactive load size; Indicates the static reactive power generator in the period t Power emitted; Indicates the proportionality factor between active and reactive load shedding; The constraints of the thermal subsystem are as follows: in, Indicates the fuel cell in the period t The heating power, represents the heating efficiency of the fuel cell, Indicates that the self-provided coal-fired power station is in the period t The heating power, It represents the heat-to-electricity ratio of a self-contained coal-fired power station. Indicates the heat storage tank in the period t The heat storage represents the heat loss coefficient of the heat storage tank, Indicates the heat storage tank in the period t Output or input heat, if greater than 0, it indicates input heat, if less than 0, it indicates output heat, Indicates the park is in the period t Heat load, / Indicates the upper and lower limits of power generation of self-contained coal-fired power plants; Indicates the ramp rate of the self-contained coal-fired power plant; S3. In the sequential Monte Carlo simulation framework, initialize the operation simulation parameters; perform random sampling simulation on the electrical load, thermal load and byproduct hydrogen production of the industrial park through the Latin hypercube sampling method; calculate the operation status of the park in each time period by running the operation scheduling optimization model established in step S2, and statistically analyze the economic indicators to evaluate the economic feasibility of the industrial park's electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system. The economic indicators include the equivalent annual value cost. , annual operating income index REV , net present value , internal rate of return and payback period PBP .

2. The economic evaluation method of the electricity-hydrogen complementary energy system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step S1, the operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information are specifically: Equipment parameters, including the purchase cost, annual operation and maintenance costs, operating life, operating parameters of hydrogen purification equipment, hydrogen storage tanks, and fuel cells, and the operating parameters of self-contained coal-fired power plants, battery energy storage systems, and heat storage tanks; load parameters, including the historical electrical load, thermal load, and by-product hydrogen production of the industrial park; economic parameters, including the discount rate.

3. The economic evaluation method of the electricity-hydrogen complementary energy system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The calculation formula for the equivalent annual value cost is as follows: in, It represents the equivalent annual cost of the system; It represents the initial investment cost of the planning scheme; It represents the capital recovery factor; Represents the operating cost of the system, including the power purchase cost from the external power grid and the load loss penalty cost; The maintenance cost of the system; Annual operating income indicators REV for: in, Represents the electricity revenue, represents carbon benefits; Net Present Value for: in, It is t Cash inflow for the year, It is t Cash outflow for the year, Discount rate When the net present value of R Internal rate of return ; Payback period PBP for: in, n Indicates the number of years in which the present value of cumulative net cash flows becomes positive. Indicates n Present value of annual cumulative net cash flows.

4. An economic evaluation system for an electricity-hydrogen complementary energy system, characterized in that: include: Information collection module, which obtains the operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system in the industrial park; The scheduling optimization module, based on the operation scenario simulation information and economic evaluation information of the industrial park electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system obtained by the information module, takes the minimum operation cost within the scheduling cycle as the goal, and establishes the operation scheduling optimization model of the industrial park electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system. The objective function of the operation scheduling optimization model is as follows: in, represents a set of scheduling periods; Indicates a period of time; Represents the cost coefficient of purchasing electricity from the external power grid; It represents the cost coefficient of power generation from a self-contained coal-fired power station; represents the price coefficient of carbon trading; represents the cost factor for removing the electrical load; represents the cost factor for removing the heat load; Indicates time period t The power the park draws from the grid; Indicates time period t Power generated by self-contained coal-fired power stations; Indicates time period t The power generated by the fuel cell; Indicates time period t The electrical load removed; Indicates time period t Heat load removed; The operating constraints for running the scheduling optimization model include: The hydrogen energy subsystem includes the upper limit of the purified hydrogen obtained in each period, which is to purify all the byproduct hydrogen in that period, the change of the hydrogen storage capacity of the hydrogen storage tank over time, and the upper and lower limits of the hydrogen storage capacity; The power subsystem, including the battery storage capacity over time, the upper and lower constraints of the battery storage system, the state of charge and discharge, and the active / reactive power balance constraints of the industrial park; The thermal subsystem, including the change of the heat storage capacity of the heat storage tank over time, the heat balance constraint of the park and the power change of the self-contained coal-fired power plant subject to the limit of the unit ramp rate; The constraints of the hydrogen energy subsystem are as follows: in, Indicates time period t The mass of hydrogen consumed by the fuel cell; Indicates time period t The power generated by the fuel cell; Indicates the conversion factor between hydrogen mass and electrical power; Indicates time period t The quality of hydrogen extracted; Indicates time period t The quality of by-product hydrogen produced in industrial parks; Indicates the purification efficiency of by-product hydrogen; Indicates time period t The hydrogen storage capacity of the hydrogen storage tank; Indicates the dissipation rate of hydrogen in the hydrogen storage tank; / Indicates the minimum / maximum value of the hydrogen storage level in the hydrogen storage tank; The constraints of the power subsystem are as follows: in, Indicates the battery energy storage system in the time period t The state of charge; Indicates the self-discharge rate of the battery energy storage system; / Indicates the charging efficiency / discharging efficiency of the battery energy storage system; / Indicates the battery energy storage system in the time period t Charging power / discharging power; / Indicates the minimum / maximum value of the battery energy storage system's stored power; Indicates the maximum value of the fuel cell power generation; / Indicates the maximum value of charging power / discharging power; / It is a 0-1 variable; it indicates that the battery energy storage system is in the period t The charge / discharge status, if it is 1, it means charging / discharging; Indicates that the self-provided coal-fired power station is in the period t The power generation capacity; / Indicates the park is in the period t Active / reactive load size; Indicates the static reactive power generator in the period t Power emitted; Indicates the proportionality factor between active and reactive load shedding; The constraints of the thermal subsystem are as follows: in, Indicates the fuel cell in the period t The heating power, represents the heating efficiency of the fuel cell, Indicates that the self-provided coal-fired power station is in the period t The heating power, It represents the heat-to-electricity ratio of a self-contained coal-fired power station. Indicates the heat storage tank in the period t The heat storage represents the heat loss coefficient of the heat storage tank, Indicates the heat storage tank in the period t Output or input heat, if greater than 0, it indicates input heat, if less than 0, it indicates output heat, Indicates the park is in the period t Heat load, / Indicates the upper and lower limits of power generation of self-contained coal-fired power plants; Indicates the ramp rate of the self-contained coal-fired power plant; The evaluation module, under the framework of sequential Monte Carlo simulation, gives a planning scheme and initializes the operation simulation parameters; then the Latin hypercube sampling method is used to perform random sampling simulation on the park's electrical load, thermal load and byproduct hydrogen production; the operation scheduling optimization model established by the operation scheduling optimization module calculates the park's operating status in each period, statistically analyzes economic indicators, and evaluates the economic feasibility of the industrial park's electric-hydrogen complementary low-carbon energy system. The economic indicators include the equivalent annual value cost. , annual operating income index REV , net present value , internal rate of return and payback period PBP .

5. A computer-readable storage medium storing one or more programs, characterized in that: The one or more programs include instructions which, when executed by a computing device, cause the computing device to perform any of the methods according to claim 1 , 2 or 3 .

6. A computing device, characterized in that include: One or more processors, a memory, and one or more programs, wherein the one or more programs are stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the one or more processors, and the one or more programs include instructions for executing any of the methods according to claim 1, 2 or 3.

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