A method and system for selecting power grid infrastructure projects based on full life cycle cost

Abstract

A method for selecting power grid infrastructure projects based on the full life cycle cost includes the following steps: setting a plurality of alternative construction plans for power grid infrastructure projects according to the construction objectives; obtaining a plurality of sample data sets that correspond to the plurality of alternative construction plans, each sample data set including the cost data, economic data and technical data of the power grid infrastructure project in the full life cycle; converting the cost data in each sample data set by a preset LCC model to obtain the corresponding full life cycle cost; conducting a comprehensive analysis of each full life cycle cost and its corresponding economic data and technical data; identifying a priority construction plan from a plurality of alternative construction plans according to the construction plan decision rule and the results of the plurality of sample analysis, so as to provide for the construction of the power grid infrastructure project. This design not only ensures that the priority construction plan provided to the power grid infrastructure project is more accurate and reasonable, but also the method is simple, reliable and practical.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power grid planning, and in particular to a method and system for optimizing power grid infrastructure projects based on full life cycle costs. Background Art

[0002] The entire life cycle usually refers to the entire life stage of a project or product from design to scrapping. The life cycle cost (LCC) usually refers to the total cost of the project or product over its entire life cycle. The LCC model usually refers to a mathematical model used to calculate the life cycle cost.

[0003] Power projects are the basis of grid planning, construction and development. They are subject to the influence of various factors such as cost, economy, technology and environment in the long term. It is very complex and difficult to provide a more optimized construction plan for power projects. Usually, the construction plan only needs to consider the necessity and feasibility of the power project, but lacks consideration of the full life cycle cost required for the power project to adopt the construction plan and its relationship with economy and / or technology, resulting in deviations in the construction plan provided to the power project. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the defects and problems of poor accuracy and low rationality in the prior art, and to provide a method and system for optimizing power grid infrastructure projects based on full life cycle cost with good accuracy and high rationality.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the technical solution of the present invention is: a method for selecting power grid infrastructure projects based on the full life cycle cost, the method comprising the following steps:

[0006] S1. Set up multiple alternative construction plans for power grid infrastructure projects based on construction goals;

[0007] S2. obtaining a plurality of sample data sets that correspond to a plurality of alternative construction plans, each sample data set including cost data, economic data, and technical data of a power grid infrastructure project over its entire life cycle;

[0008] S3, converting the cost data in each sample data set by using the preset LCC model to obtain the corresponding life cycle cost;

[0009] S4. Conduct a comprehensive analysis of each life cycle cost and its corresponding economic data and technical data to obtain corresponding sample analysis results; the sample analysis results are used to indicate the degree to which the life cycle cost of the power grid infrastructure project that adopts the corresponding alternative construction plan is affected by economics and / or technology;

[0010] S5. According to the construction plan decision rules and multiple sample analysis results, a priority construction plan is identified from multiple alternative construction plans for the construction of power grid infrastructure projects.

[0011] In step S1, the construction target includes at least one of the voltage level, the number of main transformers, the capacity of main transformers, the number of GIS, the GIS deployment mode, the transmission distance, the transmission area and the line type of the power grid infrastructure project;

[0012] First, use the construction objectives to generate an equipment list and a land planning map, then use the equipment list and land planning map to generate a three-dimensional model of the power grid infrastructure project, and then combine the equipment list, land planning map and three-dimensional model to generate a variety of alternative construction plans.

[0013] Step S4 specifically includes the following steps:

[0014] S41. Describe the economic and technical data corresponding to each life cycle cost through a variety of probability distribution functions;

[0015] S42. Perform sensitivity analysis on each life cycle cost and the corresponding different probability distribution functions describing economic data and technical data by using a preset Monte Carlo model to obtain corresponding economic sensitivity and technical sensitivity, wherein the economic sensitivity is used to indicate the degree to which the life cycle cost of a power grid infrastructure project that adopts the corresponding alternative construction plan is affected by the economy, and the technical sensitivity is used to indicate the degree to which the life cycle cost of a power grid infrastructure project that adopts the corresponding alternative construction plan is affected by technology;

[0016] S43. Combine each life cycle cost and the corresponding economic sensitivity and technical sensitivity to form the corresponding sample analysis results.

[0017] In step S41, the multiple probability distribution functions include a discrete uniform distribution function for describing economic data and a normal distribution function for describing technical data.

[0018] Step S5 specifically includes the following steps:

[0019] S51. Classify and sort the multiple sample analysis results to obtain an economic indicator sequence, a technical indicator sequence, and a cost indicator sequence, wherein each sample analysis result includes an economic sensitivity, a technical sensitivity, and a full life cycle cost that are consistent with a corresponding alternative construction plan, the economic indicator sequence includes multiple economic sensitivities that correspond one-to-one to multiple alternative construction plans, the technical indicator sequence includes multiple technical sensitivities that correspond one-to-one to multiple alternative construction plans, and the cost indicator sequence includes the full life cycle cost that corresponds one-to-one to multiple alternative construction plans;

[0020] S52. Identify the economic sensitivity with the smallest value in the economic indicator series, and identify the technical sensitivity with the smallest value in the technical indicator series;

[0021] S53. According to the construction plan decision rule, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity are verified for identity;

[0022] S54. When the verification is successful, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the minimum technical sensitivity is set as the priority construction plan; when the verification fails, the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity are respectively found in the life cycle cost;

[0023] S55, comparing the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity with the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity to obtain a cost comparison result;

[0024] S56. According to the cost comparison result, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity or the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity is set as the priority construction plan.

[0025] In step S53, when it is verified through the construction plan decision rule that the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is the same as the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, it is determined that the verification is successful;

[0026] When it is verified through the construction plan decision rule that the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is different from the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, it is determined that the verification has failed.

[0027] In step S56, when the cost comparison result is that the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is equal to the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, any one of the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity is set as the priority construction scheme;

[0028] When the cost comparison result is that the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is less than the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is set as the priority construction plan;

[0029] When the cost comparison result is that the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is greater than the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is set as the priority construction plan.

[0030] In step S5, the construction scheme decision rule includes that the construction scheme adopted by the power grid infrastructure project under the condition that the economic impact of the whole life cycle cost is minimized is the same as the construction scheme adopted under the condition that the technical impact of the whole life cycle cost is minimized.

[0031] A power grid infrastructure project optimization system based on full life cycle cost, comprising:

[0032] A data input module is used to input construction plan decision rules and construction goals that are consistent with the power grid infrastructure project;

[0033] A scheme generation module is used to set up multiple alternative construction schemes for power grid infrastructure projects based on construction goals;

[0034] The data input module is also used to input multiple sample data sets that correspond to multiple alternative construction plans, each sample data set includes cost data, economic data, and technical data of the power grid infrastructure project over its entire life cycle;

[0035] The LCC calculation module is used to convert the cost data in each sample data set through the preset LCC model to obtain the corresponding life cycle cost;

[0036] A comprehensive analysis module is used to conduct a comprehensive analysis of each life cycle cost and its corresponding economic data and technical data to obtain corresponding sample analysis results, wherein the sample analysis results are used to indicate the degree to which the life cycle cost required for the grid infrastructure project to adopt the corresponding alternative construction plan is affected by economics and / or technology;

[0037] The scheme decision module is used to identify the priority construction scheme from multiple alternative construction schemes based on the construction scheme decision rules and multiple sample analysis results for the construction of power grid infrastructure projects.

[0038] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0039] In a method and system for optimizing power grid infrastructure projects based on full life cycle costs of the present invention, construction goals and sample data sets are used as input conditions, and sample analysis results are analyzed by a data processing method. Multiple sample analysis results have attributes that reflect the degree to which the full life cycle costs of power grid infrastructure projects that adopt multiple alternative construction plans are affected by economics and / or technology. In other words, the purpose of screening multiple alternative construction plans is achieved by considering the relationship between the full life cycle costs affected by economics and / or technology, thereby ensuring that the priority construction plans provided to power grid infrastructure projects are more accurate and reasonable. The method is simple, reliable and practical. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0040] Figure 1The present invention is a flow chart of a method for selecting power grid infrastructure projects based on full life cycle cost.

[0041] Figure 2 It is a structural schematic diagram of a power grid infrastructure project optimization system based on full life cycle cost according to the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0042] The present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific implementation methods.

[0043] See also Figure 1 , a method for selecting power grid infrastructure projects based on the full life cycle cost, the method comprising the following steps:

[0044] S1. Set up multiple alternative construction plans for power grid infrastructure projects based on construction goals;

[0045] The construction target includes at least one of the voltage level, number of main transformers, main transformer capacity, number of GIS, GIS deployment mode, transmission distance, transmission area and line type of the power grid infrastructure project;

[0046] First, use the construction objectives to generate an equipment list and a land planning map, then use the equipment list and land planning map to generate a three-dimensional model of the power grid infrastructure project, and then combine the equipment list, land planning map and three-dimensional model to generate a variety of alternative construction plans.

[0047] S2. obtaining a plurality of sample data sets that correspond to a plurality of alternative construction plans, each sample data set including cost data, economic data, and technical data of a power grid infrastructure project over its entire life cycle;

[0048] The cost data may include at least one of the initial investment data, operation and maintenance cost data, inspection and repair cost data and failure cost data of the power grid infrastructure project. The initial investment data may include purchase costs, installation and commissioning costs and other costs. The operation and maintenance cost data may include annual energy consumption costs and maintenance costs. The inspection and repair cost data may include the annual corrective maintenance frequency, preventive maintenance frequency, single corrective maintenance cost and single preventive maintenance cost. The failure cost data may include annual accidental power outage time, load rate and accident rate.

[0049] The economic data may include at least one of an annual interest rate and an inflation rate, wherein the annual interest rate may be 7% and the inflation rate may be 3%.

[0050] The technical data may include at least one of a line model and a wiring area, wherein the line model may take the LGJ-400 / 35 aluminum alloy core aluminum stranded wire as a reference benchmark, and the line operation area may take the line operation area as a reference benchmark.

[0051] S3, converting the cost data in each sample data set by using the preset LCC model to obtain the corresponding life cycle cost;

[0052] The power grid infrastructure project can be but not limited to substations. The preset LCC model can be expressed as:

[0053] LCC=A CI +A CO +A CM +A CF +A CD

[0054] Among them, LCC represents the life cycle cost of the power grid infrastructure project using alternative construction plans, A CI represents the initial investment and annual fees, A CO A represents the annual fee for operation and maintenance, etc. CM Indicates annual maintenance fee, A CF Indicates annual fee for breakdowns, etc. CD Indicates annual fees such as scrapping.

[0055] Initial investment and annual fees A CI It can be expressed as:

[0056] A CI =P CI ×CRF(γ,T)

[0057]

[0058] F CI =CI1+CI2+CI3

[0059]

[0060] Among them, P CI represents the present value of initial investment, F CI represents the final value of initial investment, CI1 represents the purchase cost, CI2 represents the installation and commissioning cost, CI3 represents other costs, CRF(γ, T) represents the annuity present value coefficient, γ represents the social discount rate, and T represents the life cycle.

[0061] The purchase cost CI1 may include equipment costs, professional tools and initial spare parts costs, and supplier freight. The installation and commissioning cost CI2 may include the owner's transportation costs, equipment construction and installation costs, and commissioning costs before the equipment is put into operation. Other costs CI3 may include acceptance costs, special test fees, and the costs of possible condition monitoring devices, etc. The social discount rate γ can be 8%, and the life cycle T can be 40 years.

[0062] Annual fee for operation and maintenance A CO It can be expressed as:

[0063] ACO =P CO ×CRF(γ,T)

[0064]

[0065]

[0066] Among them, P CO represents the present value of operation and maintenance costs, CO i represents the final value of the operation and maintenance fee in the i-th year, Indicates energy consumption, represents the maintenance fee, 1≤i≤T.

[0067] Energy consumption Can be a fixed value, maintenance fee It can be expressed as:

[0068]

[0069]

[0070]

[0071] in, Indicates the body loss fee, Auxiliary loss fee, auxiliary loss fee Can be a fixed value, ΔP max Indicates the power loss at maximum load, t max represents the maximum load loss time, η represents the main operating power, M represents the average transmission and distribution price, P max Indicates the active power at maximum load, Q max It represents the reactive power at maximum load, R represents the resistance, and U represents the rated voltage. Indicates the power factor.

[0072] Annual fee for maintenance etc.A CM It can be expressed as:

[0073] A CM =P CM ×CRF(γ,T)

[0074]

[0075] CM i =x i ×p1+y i ×p2

[0076] Among them, P CM represents the present value of maintenance costs, CM i represents the final value of maintenance fee in year i, x irepresents the frequency of calibration and maintenance in the i-th year, p i represents the single calibration and maintenance fee, y i represents the frequency of preventive maintenance in the i-th year, and p2 represents the cost of a single preventive maintenance.

[0077] Annual fee for breakdown etc.A CF It can be expressed as:

[0078] A CF =P CF ×CRF(γ,T)

[0079]

[0080]

[0081] Among them, P CF represents the present value of failure cost, CF i represents the final value of the fault fee in the i-th year, S represents the maximum distribution transformer capacity, K d Indicates the electricity price conversion multiple, t i represents the power outage time of the accident in the i-th year, ψ i represents the load factor in the i-th year, P k represents the load loss in the i-th year, Indicates the power factor, ε i represents the accident rate in the i-th year, and μ represents the fault repair cost rate.

[0082] Annual fee for scrapping etc. CD It can be expressed as: A CD =α×A CI , where α represents the scrapping investment cost ratio, for example, the scrapping investment cost ratio α may be 5%.

[0083] Annual fee for initial investment etc. CI , operation and maintenance annual fee A CO , maintenance and other annual fees A CM , annual fee for failure etc.A CF and annual fees for scrapping etc. CD The method of measurement can take into account the simplicity, accuracy and practicality of sub-item measurement.

[0084] S4. Comprehensively analyze each life cycle cost and its corresponding economic data and technical data to obtain corresponding sample analysis results; the sample analysis results are used to indicate the degree to which the life cycle cost of the power grid infrastructure project that adopts the corresponding alternative construction plan is affected by economics and / or technology; specifically, the following steps are included:

[0085] S41. Describe the economic and technical data corresponding to each life cycle cost through a variety of probability distribution functions;

[0086] Multiple probability distribution functions include discrete uniform distribution functions for describing economic data and normal distribution functions for describing technical data. Under the action of different probability distribution functions, it helps to improve the accuracy of differentiated sensitivity analysis.

[0087] S42. Perform sensitivity analysis on each life cycle cost and the corresponding different probability distribution functions describing economic data and technical data by using a preset Monte Carlo model to obtain corresponding economic sensitivity and technical sensitivity, wherein the economic sensitivity is used to indicate the degree to which the life cycle cost of a power grid infrastructure project that adopts the corresponding alternative construction plan is affected by the economy, and the technical sensitivity is used to indicate the degree to which the life cycle cost of a power grid infrastructure project that adopts the corresponding alternative construction plan is affected by technology;

[0088] S43. Combine each life cycle cost and the corresponding economic sensitivity and technical sensitivity to form the corresponding sample analysis results.

[0089] The sample analysis results may be in the form of a probability distribution graph including technical sensitivity and economic sensitivity, or the sample analysis results may be in the form of an array.

[0090] The corresponding life cycle cost, economic sensitivity and technical sensitivity are stored together in the form of tables or folders to form the corresponding sample analysis results.

[0091] Combining probability distribution functions and Monte Carlo models to conduct sensitivity analysis on cost data, technical data, and economic data can help improve the accuracy and reliability of data sensitivity analysis.

[0092] When the annual interest rate is described by a discrete uniform distribution function, it can vary between 5% and 9% with 7% as the center, or when the annual interest rate is described by a discrete uniform distribution function, it can vary between 1% and 5% with 3% as the center.

[0093] When a normal distribution function is used to describe the line model, the mean may be 1 and the standard deviation may be 0.1, or when a normal distribution function is used to describe the line model, the mean may be 1 and the standard deviation may be 0.2.

[0094] S5. Identify a priority construction plan from a plurality of alternative construction plans according to the construction plan decision rule and the results of multiple sample analyses, so as to construct the power grid infrastructure project; specifically, the following steps are included:

[0095] S51. Classify and sort the multiple sample analysis results to obtain an economic indicator sequence, a technical indicator sequence, and a cost indicator sequence, wherein each sample analysis result includes an economic sensitivity, a technical sensitivity, and a full life cycle cost that are consistent with a corresponding alternative construction plan, the economic indicator sequence includes multiple economic sensitivities that correspond one-to-one to multiple alternative construction plans, the technical indicator sequence includes multiple technical sensitivities that correspond one-to-one to multiple alternative construction plans, and the cost indicator sequence includes the full life cycle cost that corresponds one-to-one to multiple alternative construction plans;

[0096] For the 10 sample analysis results, the 10 economic sensitivities are sorted in descending order, the 10 technical sensitivities are sorted in descending order, and the 10 full life cycle costs are sorted in descending order; or, for the 5 sample analysis results, the 5 economic sensitivities are sorted in ascending order, the 10 technical sensitivities are sorted in ascending order, and the 10 full life cycle costs are sorted in ascending order;

[0097] The economic indicator series, technical indicator series and cost indicator series can be expressed in the same way. For example, the five cost indicator series can be expressed as [4.22 million, 5.78 million, 6.19 million, 5.46 million, 5.89 million];

[0098] S52. Identify the economic sensitivity with the smallest value in the economic indicator series, and identify the technical sensitivity with the smallest value in the technical indicator series;

[0099] By using the sequence, the economic sensitivity with the smallest value can be identified from multiple economic sensitivities, and the technical sensitivity with the smallest value can be identified from multiple technical sensitivities, which is simple and helps to ensure data identification efficiency;

[0100] S53. According to the construction plan decision rule, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity are verified for identity;

[0101] When it is verified through the construction plan decision rule that the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is the same as the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, it is determined that the verification is successful;

[0102] When it is verified through the construction plan decision rule that the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is different from the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, it is determined that the verification has failed;

[0103] Under the constraints of the construction plan decision-making rules, the sameness of the alternative construction plans is used as a judgment condition for successful verification, so as to avoid misjudging the verification failure when the alternative construction plans are the same, and the difference of the alternative construction plans is used as a judgment condition for failure, so as to avoid misjudging the verification success when the alternative plans are different. In this way, the accuracy of the construction plan verification is guaranteed;

[0104] S54. When the verification is successful, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the minimum technical sensitivity is set as the priority construction plan; when the verification fails, the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity are respectively found in the life cycle cost;

[0105] S55, comparing the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity with the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity to obtain a cost comparison result;

[0106] S56. According to the cost comparison result, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity or the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity is set as the priority construction plan;

[0107] When the cost comparison result is that the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is equal to the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, any one of the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity is set as the priority construction scheme;

[0108] When the cost comparison result is that the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is less than the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is set as the priority construction plan;

[0109] When the cost comparison result is that the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is greater than the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is set as the priority construction plan.

[0110] The cost comparison result can be expressed as any one of 0, -1 and 1, where 0 means that the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is equal to the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, -1 means that the cost comparison result is that the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is less than the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, and 1 means that the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is greater than the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, reflecting the relationship between the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity. This is used as a condition for identifying the preferred construction plan, which is simple, accurate and reliable.

[0111] The construction scheme decision rule includes that the construction scheme adopted by the power grid infrastructure project under the condition that the economic impact of the whole life cycle cost is minimized is the same as the construction scheme adopted under the condition that the technical impact of the whole life cycle cost is minimized. Under the constraints of the construction scheme decision rule, the whole life cycle cost of the construction scheme is minimized by economic factors and technical factors to improve the accuracy and rationality of identifying the construction scheme.

[0112] Under the constraints of the construction plan decision-making rules, the successful verification of the construction plan is directly used as the trigger condition for setting the preferred construction plan, so as to avoid using the full life cycle cost to identify the preferred construction plan, saving the process of identifying the preferred construction plan and helping to improve identification efficiency.

[0113] Under the constraints of the construction plan decision-making rules, the successful verification of the construction plan and the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity are combined as conditions for identifying the priority construction plan, which helps to improve the identification accuracy.

[0114] See also Figure 2 , a grid infrastructure project optimization system based on the full life cycle cost, including:

[0115] A data input module is used to input construction plan decision rules and construction goals that are consistent with the power grid infrastructure project;

[0116] A scheme generation module is used to set up multiple alternative construction schemes for power grid infrastructure projects based on construction goals;

[0117] The data input module is also used to input multiple sample data sets that correspond to multiple alternative construction plans, each sample data set includes cost data, economic data, and technical data of the power grid infrastructure project over its entire life cycle;

[0118] The LCC calculation module is used to convert the cost data in each sample data set through the preset LCC model to obtain the corresponding life cycle cost;

[0119] A comprehensive analysis module is used to conduct a comprehensive analysis of each life cycle cost and its corresponding economic data and technical data to obtain corresponding sample analysis results, wherein the sample analysis results are used to indicate the degree to which the life cycle cost required for the grid infrastructure project to adopt the corresponding alternative construction plan is affected by economics and / or technology;

[0120] The scheme decision module is used to identify the priority construction scheme from multiple alternative construction schemes based on the construction scheme decision rules and multiple sample analysis results for the construction of power grid infrastructure projects.

[0121] A device for optimizing power grid infrastructure projects based on full life cycle cost can refer to the specific description of the method for optimizing power grid infrastructure projects based on full life cycle cost and its beneficial effects, which will not be repeated here.

[0122] A computing device includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, the above-mentioned method for selecting a preferred grid infrastructure project based on the full life cycle cost is implemented. It can be understood that the computing device of the present invention can be a server or a terminal substation, wherein the processor can be connected to the memory via a universal serial bus.

[0123] A non-temporary computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the above-mentioned method for selecting power grid infrastructure projects based on full life cycle cost.

[0124] Generally speaking, the computer instructions for implementing the method of the present invention may be carried by any combination of one or more computer-readable storage media. Non-transitory computer-readable storage media may include any computer-readable media, except for the signal itself that is temporarily propagating.

[0125] Computer readable storage media can be, for example, but not limited to, electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor systems, devices or devices, or any combination thereof. More specific examples of computer readable storage media (a non-exhaustive list) include: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAn), a read-only memory (Ron), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EKRon or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-Ron), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the above. In this document, a computer readable storage medium can be any tangible medium containing or storing a program that can be used by or in conjunction with an instruction execution system, device or device.

[0126] Computer program code for performing the operation of the present invention can be written in one or more programming languages ​​or a combination thereof, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Java, Snalltalk, C++, and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as "C" or similar programming languages, in particular, Kython language suitable for neural network computing and platform frameworks based on TensorFlow, KyTorch, etc. can be used. The program code can be executed entirely on the user's computer, partially on the user's computer, as an independent software package, partially on the user's computer and partially on a remote computer, or entirely on a remote computer or server. In the case of a remote computer, the remote computer can be connected to the user's computer through any type of network, including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN), or connected to an external computer (for example, using an Internet service provider to connect through the Internet).

[0127] The above-mentioned computing device and non-temporary computer-readable storage medium can be found in the detailed description of the method for optimizing power grid infrastructure projects based on the full life cycle cost and the beneficial effects, which will not be repeated here.

[0128] Although the embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it should be understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and should not be construed as limitations on the present invention. A person skilled in the art may change, modify, replace and vary the above embodiments within the scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for selecting power grid infrastructure projects based on full life cycle cost, characterized in that: The method comprises the following steps: S1. Set up multiple alternative construction plans for power grid infrastructure projects based on construction goals; The construction target includes at least one of the voltage level, number of main transformers, main transformer capacity, number of GIS, GIS deployment mode, transmission distance, transmission area and line type of the power grid infrastructure project; First, use the construction target to generate the equipment list and land planning map, then use the equipment list and land planning map to generate a 3D model of the power grid infrastructure project, and then combine the equipment list, land planning map and 3D model to generate multiple alternative construction plans; S2. obtaining a plurality of sample data sets that correspond to a plurality of alternative construction plans, each sample data set including cost data, economic data, and technical data of a power grid infrastructure project over its entire life cycle; S3, converting the cost data in each sample data set by using the preset LCC model to obtain the corresponding life cycle cost; S4. Comprehensively analyze each life cycle cost and its corresponding economic data and technical data to obtain corresponding sample analysis results; the sample analysis results are used to indicate the degree to which the life cycle cost of the power grid infrastructure project that adopts the corresponding alternative construction plan is affected by economics and / or technology; specifically, the following steps are included: S41. Describe the economic and technical data corresponding to each life cycle cost through a variety of probability distribution functions; S42. Perform sensitivity analysis on each life cycle cost and the corresponding different probability distribution functions describing economic data and technical data by using a preset Monte Carlo model to obtain corresponding economic sensitivity and technical sensitivity, wherein the economic sensitivity is used to indicate the degree to which the life cycle cost of a power grid infrastructure project that adopts the corresponding alternative construction plan is affected by the economy, and the technical sensitivity is used to indicate the degree to which the life cycle cost of a power grid infrastructure project that adopts the corresponding alternative construction plan is affected by technology; S43, combining each life cycle cost and the corresponding economic sensitivity and technical sensitivity to form a corresponding sample analysis result; S5. Identify a priority construction plan from a plurality of alternative construction plans according to the construction plan decision rule and the results of multiple sample analyses, so as to construct the power grid infrastructure project; specifically, the following steps are included: S51. Classify and sort the multiple sample analysis results to obtain an economic indicator sequence, a technical indicator sequence, and a cost indicator sequence, wherein each sample analysis result includes an economic sensitivity, a technical sensitivity, and a full life cycle cost that are consistent with a corresponding alternative construction plan, the economic indicator sequence includes multiple economic sensitivities that correspond one-to-one to multiple alternative construction plans, the technical sensitivity sequence includes multiple technical sensitivities that correspond one-to-one to multiple alternative construction plans, and the cost indicator sequence includes a full life cycle cost that corresponds one-to-one to multiple alternative construction plans; S52. Identify the economic sensitivity with the smallest value in the economic indicator series, and identify the technical sensitivity with the smallest value in the technical indicator series; S53. According to the construction plan decision rule, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity are verified for identity; When it is verified through the construction plan decision rule that the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is the same as the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, it is determined that the verification is successful; When it is verified through the construction plan decision rule that the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is different from the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, it is determined that the verification has failed; S54. When the verification is successful, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the minimum technical sensitivity is set as the priority construction plan; when the verification fails, the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity are respectively found in the life cycle cost; S55, comparing the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity with the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity to obtain a cost comparison result; S56. According to the cost comparison result, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity or the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity is set as the priority construction plan.

2. The method for selecting power grid infrastructure projects based on life cycle cost according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S41, the multiple probability distribution functions include a discrete uniform distribution function for describing economic data and a normal distribution function for describing technical data.

3. The method for selecting power grid infrastructure projects based on life cycle cost according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S56, when the cost comparison result is that the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is equal to the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, any one of the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity and the alternative construction scheme corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity is set as the priority construction scheme; When the cost comparison result is that the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is less than the life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is set as the priority construction plan; When the cost comparison result is that the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is greater than the full life cycle cost corresponding to the minimum technical sensitivity, the alternative construction plan corresponding to the minimum economic sensitivity is set as the priority construction plan.

4. A method for selecting power grid infrastructure projects based on life cycle cost according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that: In step S5, the construction scheme decision rule includes that the construction scheme adopted by the power grid infrastructure project under the condition that the economic impact of the whole life cycle cost is minimized is the same as the construction scheme adopted under the condition that the technical impact of the whole life cycle cost is minimized.

5. A power grid infrastructure project optimization system based on the full life cycle cost, characterized in that: The system is applied to the method described in any one of claims 1 to 4, and the system comprises: A data input module is used to input construction plan decision rules and construction goals that are consistent with the power grid infrastructure project; A scheme generation module is used to set up multiple alternative construction schemes for power grid infrastructure projects based on construction goals; The data input module is also used to input multiple sample data sets that correspond to multiple alternative construction plans, each sample data set includes cost data, economic data, and technical data of the power grid infrastructure project over its entire life cycle; The LCC calculation module is used to convert the cost data in each sample data set through the preset LCC model to obtain the corresponding life cycle cost; A comprehensive analysis module is used to conduct a comprehensive analysis of each life cycle cost and its corresponding economic data and technical data to obtain corresponding sample analysis results, wherein the sample analysis results are used to indicate the degree to which the life cycle cost required for the grid infrastructure project to adopt the corresponding alternative construction plan is affected by economics and / or technology; The scheme decision module is used to identify the priority construction scheme from multiple alternative construction schemes based on the construction scheme decision rules and multiple sample analysis results for the construction of power grid infrastructure projects.

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