Natural gas total production determination method and device, computer equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The application relates to a natural gas total yield determination method and device, computer equipment and a storage medium, and relates to the technical field of natural gas. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring initial natural gas data and a predicted data amount N, performing a natural gas total yield determination process at least once until i=N+1, acquiring natural gas total yields corresponding to N time points, the natural gas total yield determination process comprises the following steps: acquiring i-1 supply-demand difference data corresponding to an i-1 time point and i-1 natural gas total yield, determining i natural gas total yield corresponding to the i time point based on the i-1 supply-demand difference data and the i-1 natural gas total yield, and updating the value of i to i+1. Through the above method, the purpose of predicting the natural gas total yield based on the natural gas price is achieved, a feasible method for predicting the natural gas total yield is provided from the microscopic angle of the natural gas price, and the accuracy of predicting the natural gas total yield is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the field of natural gas technology, and in particular to a method, apparatus, computer equipment, and storage medium for determining total natural gas production. Background Technology

[0002] As a clean energy source, natural gas is increasingly accounting for a larger share of primary energy consumption. From the perspective of government and natural gas industry policymakers, analyzing and forecasting domestic natural gas production plays a crucial role in natural gas imports and supply and demand regulation.

[0003] In related technologies, domestic natural gas production is predicted based on population size and total natural gas production value. However, in actual practice, new engineering personnel will choose whether to use natural gas for production and daily life based on the price of natural gas compared to other alternative energy sources. In other words, natural gas pricing affects the demand for natural gas from engineering personnel, which in turn affects the regulation of total domestic natural gas production. Therefore, the formulation of natural gas pricing strategies affects the supply and demand relationship in the natural gas market. Thus, how to predict total natural gas production based on natural gas prices has become an urgent problem to be solved. Summary of the Invention

[0004] This application relates to a method, apparatus, computer equipment, and storage medium for determining total natural gas production, which can achieve micro-prediction of total natural gas production based on natural gas prices. The technical solution is as follows:

[0005] On the one hand, a method for determining total natural gas production is provided, the method comprising:

[0006] Acquire initial natural gas data and the predicted data volume N, where N is a positive integer; the initial natural gas data includes initial natural gas price data, initial natural gas supply data, initial natural gas demand data, and initial alternative energy price data; the initial natural gas supply data includes initial total natural gas production and initial natural gas imports; the total natural gas production refers to domestic natural gas production within a specified time period.

[0007] Execute the total natural gas production determination process at least once until i = N + 1, obtaining the total natural gas production corresponding to N time points, with i initially valued at 1; the total natural gas production determination process includes:

[0008] Obtain the supply-demand gap data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point; the supply-demand gap data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is determined by the (i-1)th natural gas data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point; the (i-1)th natural gas data includes the (i-1)th natural gas price data, the (i-1)th natural gas supply data, the (i-1)th natural gas demand data, and the (i-1)th alternative energy price data; the (i-1)th natural gas supply data includes the (i-1)th total natural gas production and the (i-1)th natural gas import volume.

[0009] Obtain the total natural gas production at the (i-1)th time point;

[0010] Based on the (i-1)th supply and demand difference data and the (i-1)th total natural gas production, determine the i-th total natural gas production corresponding to the i-th time point;

[0011] Update the value of i to i+1;

[0012] Wherein, in response to i=1, the supply-demand difference data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is determined by the initial natural gas data, and the total natural gas production corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is the initial total natural gas production.

[0013] On the other hand, a device for determining total natural gas production is provided, the device comprising:

[0014] The initial data acquisition module is used to acquire initial natural gas data and the predicted data volume N, where N is a positive integer. The initial natural gas data includes initial natural gas price data, initial natural gas supply data, initial natural gas demand data, and initial alternative energy price data. The initial natural gas supply data includes initial total natural gas production and initial natural gas imports. The total natural gas production refers to the domestic natural gas production within a specified time period.

[0015] The natural gas total production acquisition module is used to execute the natural gas total production determination process at least once until i = N + 1, and to obtain the natural gas total production corresponding to N time points, with i initially valued as 1.

[0016] The total natural gas production acquisition module includes:

[0017] The supply-demand gap data acquisition submodule is used to acquire the supply-demand gap data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point; the supply-demand gap data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is determined by the natural gas data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point; the natural gas data includes the natural gas price data, the natural gas supply data, the natural gas demand data, and the alternative energy price data; the natural gas supply data includes the total natural gas production and the natural gas import volume.

[0018] The first natural gas total production acquisition submodule is used to acquire the (i-1)th natural gas total production corresponding to the (i-1)th time point;

[0019] The second natural gas total production acquisition submodule is used to determine the i-th natural gas total production corresponding to the i-th time point based on the i-1-th supply and demand difference data and the i-1-th natural gas total production.

[0020] Update the value of i to i+1;

[0021] Wherein, in response to i=1, the supply-demand difference data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is determined by the initial natural gas data, and the total natural gas production corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is the initial total natural gas production.

[0022] In one possible implementation, the second total natural gas production acquisition submodule includes:

[0023] The production depreciation calculation unit is used to calculate the production depreciation amount corresponding to the (i-1)th time point based on the (i-1)th total natural gas production, and the (i-1)th production depreciation amount is used to represent the calculation error corresponding to the (i-1)th time point;

[0024] The second natural gas total production calculation unit is used to determine the i-th natural gas total production corresponding to the i-th time point based on the i-1-th natural gas total production, the i-1-th supply and demand difference data, and the i-1-th production depreciation.

[0025] In one possible implementation, the (i-1)th natural gas data includes the (i-1)th depreciation factor;

[0026] In one possible implementation, the production depreciation calculation unit is used to calculate the production depreciation amount corresponding to the (i-1)th time point based on the (i-1)th total natural gas production and the (i-1)th depreciation factor.

[0027] In one possible implementation, the initial data acquisition module is configured to acquire the i-1 difference as the i-1 supply-demand gap data in response to the i-1 natural gas demand data and the i-1 natural gas supply data in the i-1 natural gas data being greater than 0.

[0028] In response to the fact that the difference between the (i-1)th natural gas demand data and the (i-1)th natural gas supply data in the (i-1)th natural gas data is less than or equal to 0, the (i-1)th supply-demand difference data is obtained as 0.

[0029] In one possible implementation, the natural gas user group includes a first group and a second group; the first group corresponds to a first natural gas price data, and the second group corresponds to a second natural gas price data, wherein the second natural gas price data is greater than or equal to the first natural gas price data; the initial natural gas price data includes initial first natural gas price data and initial second natural gas price data; the initial natural gas demand data includes initial natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group and initial natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group, and the device further includes:

[0030] The first natural gas demand data calculation module is used to calculate the i1 natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group based on the first natural gas price data, the (i-1)th alternative energy price data, the first discount coefficient, and the (i1-1)th natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group; the first discount coefficient is the discount coefficient corresponding to the first group.

[0031] The second natural gas demand data calculation module is used to calculate the i2 natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group based on the second natural gas price data, the i-1th alternative energy price data, the second discount factor, and the i2-1th natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group; the second discount factor is the discount factor corresponding to the second group.

[0032] The natural gas demand data calculation module is used to calculate the i-th natural gas demand data corresponding to the i-th time point based on the i-th natural gas demand data and the i-th natural gas demand data.

[0033] In one possible implementation, the first group corresponds to a first group growth rate, and the second group corresponds to a second group growth rate;

[0034] The first sub-module for calculating natural gas demand data includes:

[0035] The first gas demand growth acquisition submodule is used to obtain the first gas demand growth corresponding to the first group based on the first natural gas price data corresponding to the first natural gas price data at the first (i-1)th time point, in response to the (i-1)th alternative energy price data being greater than the first natural gas price data at the (i-1)th time point.

[0036] In response to the fact that the (i-1)th alternative energy price data is less than or equal to the first natural gas price data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point, the (i1-1)th natural gas demand data, the first group growth rate and the first discount coefficient are used to obtain the (i1)th gas demand growth of the first group.

[0037] The first sub-module for calculating natural gas demand data is used to calculate the i1th natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group based on the i1-1th gas demand growth and the i1-1th natural gas demand data.

[0038] In one possible implementation, the second sub-natural gas demand data calculation module includes:

[0039] The second gas demand growth acquisition submodule is used to obtain the second gas demand growth corresponding to the second group based on the i2-1 natural gas demand data and the growth rate of the second group in response to the i-1 alternative energy price data being greater than the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i-1 time point.

[0040] In response to the fact that the price data of the (i-1)th alternative energy is less than or equal to the second natural gas price data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point, the gas demand growth of the second group is obtained based on the (i2-1)th natural gas demand data, the growth rate of the second group and the second discount coefficient;

[0041] The second sub-module for calculating natural gas demand data is used to calculate the second natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group based on the second gas demand growth and the second (i2-1) natural gas demand data.

[0042] In one possible implementation, the natural gas price data is determined by a natural gas price data strategy; the natural gas price data strategy includes a first natural gas price data strategy, a second natural gas price data strategy, a third natural gas price data strategy, and a fourth natural gas price data strategy.

[0043] The first natural gas price data strategy indicates that the first natural gas price data corresponding to the N time points are all the same, and the second natural gas price data corresponding to the N time points are all the same;

[0044] The second natural gas price data strategy indicates that the difference between the first natural gas price data at the i-th time point and the first natural gas price data at the (i-1)-th time point is the first specified growth value; the difference between the second natural gas price data at the i-th time point and the second natural gas price data at the (i-1)-th time point is the second specified growth value.

[0045] The third natural gas price data strategy indicates that the second natural gas price data corresponding to each of the N time points is determined by the imported natural gas price corresponding to each of the N time points, and the first natural gas price data corresponding to each of the N time points is the same.

[0046] The fourth natural gas price data strategy indicates that: the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i-th time point is determined by the alternative energy price data corresponding to the (i-1)-th time point; the first natural gas price data corresponding to the i-th time point is determined by the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i-th time point.

[0047] On the other hand, a computer device is provided, the computer device including a processor and a memory, the memory storing at least one instruction, at least one program, code set or instruction set, the at least one instruction, the at least one program, the code set or instruction set being loaded and executed by the processor to implement the natural gas total production determination method provided in the embodiments of this application.

[0048] On the other hand, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, wherein at least one instruction, at least one program, code set or instruction set is stored in the computer-readable storage medium, and at least one instruction, at least one program, code set or instruction set is loaded and executed by a processor to implement the natural gas total production determination method provided in the embodiments of this application.

[0049] On the other hand, a computer program product or computer program is provided, which includes computer instructions stored in a computer-readable storage medium. A processor of a computer device reads the computer instructions from the computer-readable storage medium and executes the computer instructions, causing the computer device to perform the method for determining total natural gas production provided in the various alternative implementations described above.

[0050] The beneficial effects of the technical solution provided in this application include at least the following:

[0051] By iterating through initial natural gas data, which includes initial natural gas price data, initial natural gas supply data, initial natural gas demand data, and initial alternative energy price data, N iterations are performed on the initial natural gas data. Based on this initial natural gas data, the total natural gas production at each of the N future time points is predicted. This achieves the goal of predicting total natural gas production based on natural gas prices, providing a feasible method for predicting total natural gas production from the micro perspective of natural gas prices, while also improving the accuracy of predicting total natural gas production. Attached Figure Description

[0052] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application, the accompanying drawings used in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the accompanying drawings described below are only some embodiments of this application. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0053] Figure 1 A flowchart illustrating a method for determining total natural gas production provided in an exemplary embodiment of this application is shown.

[0054] Figure 2 A flowchart illustrating the process for determining total natural gas production, as shown in an exemplary embodiment of this application, is presented.

[0055] Figure 3 A flowchart of a method for determining total natural gas production provided in an embodiment of this application is shown;

[0056] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of the total natural gas production curves corresponding to different natural gas pricing strategies is shown in an exemplary embodiment of this application;

[0057] Figure 5 This application shows a schematic diagram of the total natural gas production curve based on different price growth gradients, illustrating an exemplary embodiment of the present application.

[0058] Figure 6 A block diagram of a natural gas total production determination apparatus illustrated in an exemplary embodiment of this application is shown;

[0059] Figure 7 This is a structural block diagram of a computer device according to an exemplary embodiment. Detailed Implementation

[0060] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this application clearer, the embodiments of this application will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0061] In the following description, when referring to the accompanying drawings, the same numbers in different drawings denote the same or similar elements unless otherwise indicated. The embodiments described in the following exemplary embodiments do not represent all embodiments consistent with this application. Rather, they are merely examples of apparatuses and methods consistent with some aspects of this application as detailed in the appended claims.

[0062] In the description of this application, it should be understood that the terms "first," "second," etc., are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be construed as indicating or implying relative importance. Unless otherwise stated, "multiple" means two or more. "And / or" describes the relationship between related objects, indicating that three relationships can exist. For example, A and / or B can represent: A alone, A and B simultaneously, and B alone. The character " / " generally indicates that the preceding and following related objects are in an "or" relationship.

[0063] To achieve the goal of predicting total natural gas production based on natural gas prices, this application provides a method for determining total natural gas production. This method can predict the total natural gas production at N future time points using initial input natural gas data and predicted data. This method can be executed by a computer device with computing power. In an exemplary embodiment, the computer device can be implemented as a server or a server cluster. This application does not limit the type of computing device.

[0064] In this embodiment of the application, the relevant data corresponding to each time point is distinguished in the form of the relevant data corresponding to the Nth time point. For example, the total natural gas production corresponding to the i-th time point is represented as the i-th total natural gas production, the supply and demand difference data corresponding to the i-th time point is represented as the i-th supply and demand difference data, the natural gas demand data corresponding to the i-th time point is represented as the i-th natural gas demand data, and so on. To illustrate, the total natural gas production corresponding to the first time point is the first total natural gas production, the natural gas demand data corresponding to the second time point is the second natural gas demand data, and so on.

[0065] Figure 1 A flowchart of a method for determining total natural gas production according to an exemplary embodiment of this application is shown. This method can be executed by a computer device, which can be implemented as a server. The method includes:

[0066] Step 110: Obtain initial natural gas data and forecast data volume N, where N is a positive integer; the initial natural gas data includes initial natural gas price data, initial natural gas supply data, initial natural gas demand data, and initial alternative energy price data; the initial natural gas supply data includes initial total natural gas production and initial natural gas imports; the total natural gas production refers to the domestic natural gas production within a specified time period.

[0067] The initial natural gas data refers to the natural gas data at the current time point or at a specified time point in history; the predicted data volume N refers to the total natural gas production predicted for N consecutive time points after the initial natural gas time point, starting from the time point corresponding to the initial natural gas time point.

[0068] The N time points can be divided by year, quarter, or month. This application does not restrict the way the time points are divided. This application will take the division of time points by year as an example. Assuming that the initial natural gas data corresponds to the year 2010 and the predicted data volume is 40, then when predicting the total natural gas production, the natural gas data of 2010 will be used as the basis to predict the total natural gas production of each year in the next 40 years, that is, the total natural gas production corresponding to each year from 2011 to 2050.

[0069] In the method provided in this application, it is considered that in real life, if energy users have already adopted natural gas, they are unlikely to replace it with new alternative energy sources. However, for new energy users, i.e., those who have not yet selected an energy type, they will comprehensively consider the prices of various energy sources and, based on price comparisons, choose the energy source that best meets their current needs or the energy source with the lowest price. Therefore, the relationship between natural gas price data and alternative energy price data relates to the amount of data on energy users choosing natural gas, i.e., the growth rate of users corresponding to natural gas, thereby affecting the supply and demand relationship of natural gas and, consequently, the total domestic natural gas production. Therefore, when forecasting the total natural gas production, taking 2010 as an example, the initial natural gas data includes the 2010 natural gas price data, the 2010 natural gas supply data, the 2010 natural gas demand data, and the 2010 alternative energy price data; among which, the 2010 natural gas supply data includes the total natural gas production in 2010 and the natural gas import volume in 2010.

[0070] Step 120: Execute the total natural gas production determination process at least once until i = N + 1, obtaining the total natural gas production corresponding to N time points, with i initially set to 1; this total natural gas production determination process includes:

[0071] Step 121: Obtain the supply-demand gap data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point; the supply-demand gap data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is determined by the natural gas data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point; the natural gas data includes the natural gas price data, the natural gas supply data, the natural gas demand data, and the alternative energy price data; the natural gas supply data includes the total natural gas production and the natural gas import volume.

[0072] Step 122: Obtain the total natural gas production at the (i-1)th time point.

[0073] Step 123: Based on the (i-1)th supply and demand difference data and the (i-1)th total natural gas production, determine the i-th total natural gas production corresponding to the i-th time point.

[0074] Step 124: Update the value of i to i+1.

[0075] Figure 2 A flowchart illustrating the process for determining total natural gas production, as shown in an exemplary embodiment of this application, is provided. Figure 2 As shown, input the initial natural gas value and set the initial value of i to 1, and execute steps 121 to 123; then, in step 124, update the value of i to i+1, that is, i = i+1; determine the relationship between the current i and N. If i ≤ N, it means that the total output corresponding to each of the N time points has not been calculated. Repeat the above steps 121 to 124 until i = N+1, which means that the total output corresponding to each of the N time points has been calculated, and obtain the total natural gas output corresponding to each of the N time points.

[0076] In this context, in response to i=1, the supply-demand gap data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is determined by the initial natural gas data, and the total natural gas production corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is the initial total natural gas production. Since the initial value of i is 1, the computer equipment does not yet have the relevant data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point during the first determination of the total natural gas production. Therefore, based on the initial natural gas data, the (i-1)th natural gas data for calculating the total natural gas production at the first time point will be obtained. For example, if the initial natural gas data corresponds to the year 2020, the calculation for predicting the total natural gas production in 2021 will be based on the natural gas data corresponding to 2020.

[0077] In summary, the method for determining total natural gas production provided in this application iterates through initial natural gas data, including initial natural gas price data, initial natural gas supply data, initial natural gas demand data, and initial alternative energy price data, N times. Based on this initial natural gas data, it predicts the total natural gas production at each of the next N time points. This achieves the goal of predicting total natural gas production based on natural gas prices, providing a feasible method for predicting total natural gas production from the micro perspective of natural gas prices, while also improving the accuracy of predicting total natural gas production.

[0078] In the embodiments of this application, the total natural gas production at the predicted time point is related to and influenced by the natural gas data at the previous time point. For example, if the predicted time is 2015, and the predicted time period is from 2011 to 2050, corresponding to the 5th time point, the total natural gas production in 2015 (the 5th predicted time point) is determined by the natural gas data in 2014 (the 4th predicted time point), and the natural gas data in 2014 (the 4th predicted time point) is determined by the natural gas data in 2013 (the 3rd predicted time point), and so on. Figure 3 This application provides a flowchart of a method for determining total natural gas production according to an embodiment of the present application. This method can be executed by a computer device, which can be implemented as a server. The method includes:

[0079] Step 310: Obtain initial natural gas data and forecast data volume N, where N is a positive integer; the initial natural gas data includes initial natural gas price data, initial natural gas supply data, initial natural gas demand data, and initial alternative energy price data; the initial natural gas supply data includes initial total natural gas production and initial natural gas import volume.

[0080] The total natural gas production refers to the domestic natural gas production within a specified time period. This specified time period corresponds to a division of N time points. For example, if the N time points are divided by year, then the natural gas production within the specified time period refers to the domestic natural gas production for each year; if the N time points are divided by quarter, then the natural gas production within the specified time period refers to the natural gas production for each quarter.

[0081] In actual production and daily life, different natural gas prices are set for different production and living scenarios. Generally speaking, they are divided into two categories: residential gas use and non-residential (commercial and industrial) gas use. Residential gas use refers to natural gas used for the daily lives of urban and rural residents, including residential natural gas and household natural gas. Non-residential gas use refers to natural gas used by gas engineers providing paid commercial, financial, and service-related activities for commodity exchange, such as gas used in shopping malls, stores, wholesale markets, warehouses, and transportation facilities. Based on the above, natural gas user groups can include a first group and a second group. The first group is the aforementioned residential gas user group, and the second group is the aforementioned non-residential gas user group. The first group corresponds to the first natural gas price data, and the second group corresponds to the second natural gas price data. The second natural gas price data is greater than or equal to the first natural gas price data. Correspondingly, the initial natural gas price data includes the initial first natural gas price data and the initial second natural gas price data. Since there is a difference in the natural gas prices corresponding to the first group and the second group, when determining the total natural gas production, it is necessary to calculate the natural gas price-related data based on the first group and the second group respectively. For example, the initial natural gas demand data includes the initial natural gas demand corresponding to the first group and the natural gas data corresponding to the second group.

[0082] In one possible implementation, the initial first natural gas price is the average of the first natural gas price over a specified period, and the initial second natural gas price is the average of the second natural gas price over the same specified period; the initial alternative energy price data is the average of the alternative energy price data over a specified period, where the specified period is a unit of division for N time points.

[0083] Step 320: Execute the total natural gas production determination process at least once until i = N + 1, obtaining the total natural gas production corresponding to N time points, with i initially set to 1; this total natural gas production determination process includes:

[0084] Step 321: Obtain the supply-demand gap data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point; the supply-demand gap data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is determined by the natural gas data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point; the natural gas data includes the natural gas price data, the natural gas supply data, the natural gas demand data, and the alternative energy price data; the natural gas supply data includes the total natural gas production and the natural gas import volume.

[0085] In one possible implementation, in response to a greater than 0 difference between the (i-1)th natural gas demand data and the (i-1)th natural gas supply data in the (i-1)th natural gas data, the (i-1)th difference is obtained as the (i-1)th supply-demand gap data; illustratively, the formula for calculating the (i-1)th difference corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is expressed as:

[0086] Supply-demand gap data for the (i-1)th term = Natural gas demand data for the (i-1)th term - Natural gas supply data for the (i-1)th term (1)

[0087] In response to the fact that the difference between the i-1th natural gas demand data and the i-1th natural gas supply data in the i-1th natural gas data is less than or equal to 0, the i-1th supply-demand difference data is obtained as 0.

[0088] Based on the above formula, in order to calculate the supply and demand difference data for the i-1th term, it is necessary to first obtain the natural gas demand data for the i-1th term and the natural gas supply data for the i-1th term; among them, the natural gas supply data for the i-1th term includes the total natural gas production for the i-1th term and the natural gas import volume for the i-1th term.

[0089] The (i-1)th natural gas demand data is related to the population size of the natural gas user group, which includes the first group (residential gas users) and the second group (non-residential gas users). The first natural gas price determines the growth rate of the first group, and the second natural gas price determines the growth rate of the second group. Generally speaking, the lower the natural gas price, the higher the growth rate of the corresponding natural gas user group, and the higher the natural gas price, the lower the growth rate of the corresponding natural gas user group.

[0090] Corresponding to the initial natural gas data mentioned above, the (i-1)th natural gas price data at the (i-1)th time point also includes the natural gas price data corresponding to the first group and the natural gas price data corresponding to the second group; the (i-1)th natural gas demand data includes the (i1-1)th natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group and the (i2-1)th natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group. Therefore, to calculate the (i-1)th natural gas demand data, it is necessary to first obtain the (i1-1)th natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group and the (i2-1)th natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group.

[0091] In one possible implementation, the process of calculating the (i-1)th natural gas demand data is as follows:

[0092] Based on the first natural gas price data, the (i-1)th alternative energy price data, the first discount factor, and the (i1-1)th natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group, calculate the (i1)th natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group; the first discount factor is the discount factor corresponding to the first group.

[0093] Based on the second natural gas price data, the i-1th alternative energy price data, the second discount factor, and the i2-1th natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group, calculate the i2th natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group; the second discount factor is the discount factor corresponding to the second group.

[0094] Based on the i1th natural gas demand data and the i2th natural gas demand data, calculate the i-1th natural gas demand data corresponding to the i-1th time point.

[0095] The first discount coefficient and the second discount coefficient can be the same or different.

[0096] In one possible implementation, the first group corresponds to a first group growth rate, and the second group corresponds to a second group growth rate. In this embodiment, the first group growth rate corresponding to the first group and the second group growth rate corresponding to the second group are growth rate data set by engineers according to the actual situation. The first group growth rate and the second group growth rate can be the same or different.

[0097] The process of calculating the natural gas demand data for the first group (i1-1) is as follows:

[0098] 1) In response to the fact that the price data of the alternative energy at the i-1th time point is greater than the price data of the first natural gas at the i-1th time point, the gas demand growth of the i1th group corresponding to the first group is obtained based on the natural gas demand data at the i1-1th time point and the growth rate of the first group.

[0099] To illustrate, when the price of the (i-1)th alternative energy source is greater than the price of the first natural gas at the (i-1)th time point, the formula for calculating the growth in gas demand for the (i-1)th time point is as follows:

[0100] The increase in gas demand for the i1th group = the natural gas demand data for the i1-1th group * the growth rate of the first group (2)

[0101] 2) In response to the fact that the price data of the (i-1)th alternative energy is less than or equal to the first natural gas price data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point, the gas demand growth of the first group is obtained based on the natural gas demand data of the (i1-1)th group, the growth rate of the first group and the first discount coefficient.

[0102] As an illustration, when the price of the (i-1)th alternative energy source is less than or equal to the price of the first natural gas at the (i-1)th time point, the formula for calculating the growth in gas demand for the (i-1)th time point is as follows:

[0103] The increase in gas demand for the i1th term =

[0104] Natural gas demand data for i1-1 * growth rate of the first group * first discount factor (3)

[0105] 3) Based on the gas demand growth of the i1th group and the natural gas demand data of the i1-1th group, calculate the natural gas demand data of the i1th group corresponding to the first group.

[0106] Indicative data on natural gas demand for the i1th time period.

[0107] = Gas demand growth for the i1th term + Natural gas demand data for the i1-1th term (4)

[0108] The process of calculating the i2th natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group is implemented as follows:

[0109] 1) In response to the fact that the price data of the alternative energy at the i-1th time point is greater than the price data of the second natural gas at the i-1th time point, the gas demand growth of the second group corresponding to the i2th time point is obtained based on the natural gas demand data at the i2-1th time point and the growth rate of the second group.

[0110] To illustrate, when the price of the (i-1)th alternative energy source is greater than the price of the second natural gas at the (i-1)th time point, the formula for calculating the increase in gas demand for the (i-2)th time point is as follows:

[0111] The increase in gas demand for the i2th group = the natural gas demand data for the i2-1th group * the growth rate of the second group (5)

[0112] 2) In response to the fact that the price data of the alternative energy at the i-1th time point is less than the price data of the second natural gas at the i-1th time point, based on the natural gas demand data at the i2-1th time point, the growth rate of the second group and the second discount coefficient, the gas demand growth of the second group at the i2th time point is obtained.

[0113] Schematic representation: When the price of the (i-1)th alternative energy source is less than or equal to the second natural gas price at the (i-1)th time point, the formula for calculating the gas demand growth at the (i-2)th time point is as follows:

[0114] The increase in gas demand for the i2th term =

[0115] Natural gas demand data for group i2-1 * growth rate of group 2 * discount factor for group 2 (6)

[0116] 3) Based on the gas demand growth of the i2th group and the natural gas demand data of the i2-1th group, calculate the natural gas demand data of the i2th group corresponding to the second group.

[0117] Indicative, i2 natural gas demand data

[0118] = Gas demand growth for the i2nd term + Natural gas demand data for the i2-1th term (7)

[0119] Step 322: Obtain the total natural gas production at the (i-1)th time point.

[0120] Step 323: Calculate the depreciation amount of the production at the (i-1)th time point based on the total natural gas production at the (i-1)th time point. This depreciation amount of the production at the (i-1)th time point is used to represent the calculation error at the (i-1)th time point.

[0121] In one possible implementation, the (i-1)th natural gas data includes an (i-1)th depreciation factor. This depreciation factor can be a pre-set factor based on actual conditions, for example, it can be a fixed value; or, it can be a factor that fluctuates within a certain range, for example, it can be data that fluctuates within 10%-20%; or, it can be data that changes according to a specified rule based on the number of time points, for example, the depreciation factor decreases as the number of time points increases within the 10%-20% range.

[0122] The process of calculating the depreciation of the (i-1)th production output is as follows: Based on the (i-1)th total natural gas production output and the (i-1)th depreciation factor, calculate the depreciation amount of the (i-1)th production output at the (i-1)th time point. The formula can be expressed as:

[0123] Depreciation amount of output at the (i-1)th digit = Total natural gas output at the (i-1)th digit * Depreciation factor at the (i-1)th digit (8)

[0124] Step 324: Based on the (i-1)th total natural gas production, the (i-1)th supply-demand gap data, and the (i-1)th production depreciation, determine the i-th total natural gas production at the i-th time point.

[0125] For illustration, the total natural gas production of the i-th rank = the total natural gas production of the (i-1)-th rank + the supply-demand gap data of the (i-1)-th rank + the depreciation of the production of the (i-1)-th rank (9)

[0126] Step 325: Update the value of i to i+1.

[0127] In response to i=1, the supply-demand difference data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is determined by the initial natural gas data, and the total natural gas production corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is the initial total natural gas production.

[0128] In summary, the method for determining total natural gas production provided in this application iterates through initial natural gas data, including initial natural gas price data, initial natural gas supply data, initial natural gas demand data, and initial alternative energy price data, N times. Based on this initial natural gas data, it predicts the total natural gas production at each of the next N time points. This achieves the goal of predicting total natural gas production based on natural gas prices, providing a feasible method for predicting total natural gas production from the micro perspective of natural gas prices, while also improving the accuracy of predicting total natural gas production.

[0129] In one possible implementation, the embodiments of this application set different natural gas price data strategies, each corresponding to different natural gas price changes, and the natural gas price data corresponding to different natural gas price data strategies can be applied to, for example... Figure 1 or Figure 3 In the method for determining total natural gas production shown, natural gas production is predicted, and natural gas price data is determined by a natural gas price data strategy; the natural gas price data strategy includes a first natural gas price data strategy, a second natural gas price data strategy, a third natural gas price data strategy, and a fourth natural gas price data strategy.

[0130] I. First Natural Gas Price Data Strategy Instruction: The first natural gas price data corresponding to N time points are all the same, and the second natural gas price data corresponding to N time points are all the same.

[0131] For illustrative purposes, the first natural gas price corresponding to N time points is the initial first natural gas price. For example, if the average first natural gas price (initial first natural gas price) for the whole year of 2010 is 1 yuan / cubic meter, then when predicting the total natural gas production for each of the years 2011-2050, the data will be processed using 1 yuan / cubic meter. Similarly, the second natural gas price corresponding to N time points is the initial second natural gas price. For example, if the average second natural gas price (initial second natural gas price) for the whole year of 2010 is 2.5 yuan / cubic meter, then when predicting the total natural gas production for each of the years 2011-2050, the data will be processed using 2.5 yuan / cubic meter.

[0132] The first natural gas price data strategy also indicates that the alternative energy price data for N time points are all the same, and the imported gas price for N time points is also the same.

[0133] For illustrative purposes, the alternative energy price data corresponding to the N time points are all initial alternative energy price data, and the imported gas price corresponding to the N time points are all initial imported gas prices included in the initial natural gas data. This initial imported gas price is the average of the imported gas price within the specified period. For example, if the average alternative energy price in 2010 was 3.5 yuan / cubic meter and the average imported gas price was 4 yuan / cubic meter, then when forecasting the total natural gas production from 2011 to 2050, the data will be processed with the alternative energy price data at 3.5 yuan / cubic meter and the imported gas price at 4 yuan / cubic meter.

[0134] In other words, the first natural gas price data strategy is a low-price policy, which indicates that the price data related to natural gas prices at N time points remain unchanged.

[0135] II. Second Natural Gas Price Data Strategy Instructions: The difference between the first natural gas price data corresponding to the i-th time point and the first natural gas price data corresponding to the (i-1)-th time point is the first designated growth value; the difference between the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i-th time point and the second natural gas price data corresponding to the (i-1)-th time point is the second designated growth value.

[0136] In one possible implementation, the first specified growth value is equal to the second specified growth value, that is, the first natural gas price data and the second natural gas price data grow at the same rate.

[0137] The second natural gas pricing strategy is a fixed price adjustment policy, which periodically increases both residential and non-residential prices, maintaining the same adjustment range. For example, in 2010, the primary natural gas price was 1 yuan / cubic meter, the secondary natural gas price was 2.5 yuan / cubic meter, the alternative energy price was 3.5 yuan / cubic meter, and the imported gas price was 4 yuan / cubic meter. When calculating the total natural gas production at N time points, only the primary and secondary natural gas prices are periodically increased, for example, by 0.2 yuan / cubic meter, 0.1 yuan / cubic meter, or 0.05 yuan / cubic meter for both.

[0138] III. Third Natural Gas Price Data Strategy Instructions: The second natural gas price data corresponding to N time points is determined by the imported natural gas price corresponding to N time points, and the first natural gas price data corresponding to the N time points are identical. The third natural gas price data strategy is an import natural gas price adjustment strategy.

[0139] In one possible implementation, the imported natural gas price corresponding to N time points is determined by the corresponding alternative energy price data for those N time points. Illustratively, the imported gas price = linkage coefficient * alternative energy price data, where the linkage coefficient indicates the correlation between the imported gas price and the alternative energy price data, and this linkage coefficient can be a value set according to actual demand. Illustratively, when calculating the imported natural gas price in 2011, the 2011 imported natural gas price = linkage coefficient * 2011 alternative energy price data.

[0140] In one possible implementation, when determining the second natural gas price data corresponding to N time points based on the imported natural gas prices corresponding to N time points, the second natural gas price data corresponding to N time points can be set as the imported natural gas prices corresponding to N time points. Alternatively, the second natural gas price data corresponding to N time points can be adjusted upwards or downwards by the same amount based on the imported natural gas prices corresponding to N time points. Or, it can be adjusted upwards or downwards according to a specified correspondence.

[0141] In one possible implementation, the alternative energy price data corresponding to the i-th time point is obtained by randomly fluctuating within a certain range based on the alternative energy price corresponding to the (i-1)-th time point. This certain range can be from -0.5 yuan / cubic meter to 0.5 yuan / cubic meter. For example, the alternative energy price data for 2012 is obtained by randomly fluctuating within the range of (-0.5, 0.5) based on the alternative energy price data for 2011. Assuming that the alternative energy price data for 2011 is 3.5 yuan, the alternative energy price data for 2012 could be 3.8 yuan, or it could be 3 yuan, etc.

[0142] IV. Fourth Natural Gas Price Data Strategy Instructions: The second natural gas price data corresponding to the i-th time point is determined by the alternative energy price data corresponding to the (i-1)-th time point; the first natural gas price data corresponding to the i-th time point is determined by the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i-th time point.

[0143] In one possible implementation, when determining the second natural gas price data at time point i from the alternative energy price data at time point i-1, the alternative energy price data at time point i-1 is obtained as the second natural gas price data at time point i; or, the alternative energy price data at time point i-1 is obtained, the alternative energy price data at time point i-1 is subjected to random fluctuations to obtain the alternative energy price data at time point i, and the average value of the alternative energy price data at time point i-1 and the alternative energy price data at time point i is obtained as the second natural gas price data at time point i.

[0144] After determining the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i-th time point, the product of the second natural gas price data corresponding to the (i-1)-th time point and the average of the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i-th time point and the first discount coefficient is obtained as the first natural gas price data corresponding to the i-th time point.

[0145] In one possible implementation, the process of determining the total natural gas production in this embodiment can be executed by a natural gas system dynamics model. This natural gas system dynamics model can comprehensively consider the mutual influence and dynamic changes among factors such as natural gas demand data, natural gas supply data, natural gas price, and alternative energy price data. It can dynamically analyze and predict the total natural gas production corresponding to each time point within the predicted time period based on the input initial data. The output set of total natural gas production will be affected by the preset amount of prediction data. That is, if the amount of prediction data is N, it will output N total natural gas production corresponding to N time points.

[0146] The process for determining the total natural gas production mentioned above can be implemented as follows:

[0147] The initial natural gas data and the predicted data volume N are input into the natural gas system dynamics model to obtain N total natural gas production values, each corresponding to one of the N time points. These N total natural gas production values ​​include the first to the Nth total natural gas production values, corresponding to the first to the Nth time points.

[0148] In one possible implementation, Figure 1 or Figure 3The computer equipment or the aforementioned natural gas system dynamics model can fit the total natural gas production at N time points corresponding to each of the predictions based on various natural gas price strategies, and obtain the total natural gas production curve under each natural gas price strategy. This allows for a more intuitive comparison of the differences between the total natural gas production predicted by different natural gas price strategies during the prediction of total natural gas production, serving as a reference for engineers to adjust natural gas prices.

[0149] Figure 4 This application illustrates a schematic diagram of total natural gas production curves corresponding to different natural gas pricing strategies, as shown in an exemplary embodiment. Figure 4 As shown, the total natural gas production curves corresponding to the four natural gas pricing strategies are fitted to the same chart. Curve 410 is the total natural gas production curve corresponding to the first natural gas pricing strategy, curve 420 is the total natural gas production curve corresponding to the second natural gas pricing strategy, curve 430 is the total natural gas production curve corresponding to the third natural gas pricing strategy, and curve 440 is the total natural gas production curve corresponding to the fourth natural gas pricing strategy.

[0150] Engineers can intuitively judge the impact of natural gas prices on total production based on the total production curve shown in the diagram. For example, at the same point in time, the total natural gas production predicted using the first natural gas price strategy (curve 410) and the second natural gas price strategy (curve 420) is higher than the total natural gas production predicted using the third natural gas price strategy (curve 430) and the fourth natural gas price strategy (curve 440). The total natural gas production predicted using the fourth natural gas price strategy (curve 440) is higher than the total natural gas production predicted using the third natural gas price strategy (curve 430). Engineers can choose any of the natural gas price adjustment strategies to apply based on different considerations.

[0151] To illustrate, under the first natural gas price adjustment strategy, maintaining a constant natural gas price level will impact the operating profits and total assets of domestic natural gas producers: Low natural gas prices may lead to excessive demand, requiring companies to import large quantities to meet domestic demand, while the unchanged price could cause asset problems. Under the third strategy, excessive import costs are passed on to non-residential engineering personnel, potentially resulting in a large long-term gap between residential and non-residential gas costs. Under the fourth strategy, natural gas prices are linked to alternative energy prices; however, fluctuations in alternative energy prices will cause corresponding fluctuations in natural gas prices, which is detrimental to market stability. Therefore, considering the potential drawbacks of the above three natural gas price adjustment strategies, engineers should focus on the total natural gas production under the second strategy, which employs a fixed price adjustment.

[0152] By adjusting the first specified growth value corresponding to the first natural gas price and the second specified growth value corresponding to the second natural gas price, the changes in total natural gas production under different price growth gradients in the future can be predicted, so as to provide engineers with corresponding guidance on natural gas price adjustments. Figure 5 This illustration shows a schematic diagram of the total natural gas production curves predicted based on different price growth gradients, as shown in an exemplary embodiment of this application. Taking the first and second specified growth values ​​being the same as an example, curve 510 corresponds to the total natural gas production curve predicted under the condition that the first and second specified growth values ​​are both 0.05 yuan / cubic meter, and curve 520 corresponds to the total natural gas production curve predicted under the condition that the first and second specified growth values ​​are both 0.1 yuan / cubic meter. Figure 5 It is known that adjusting the growth gradient of natural gas will affect the total production of natural gas. However, within a specified range, adjusting the growth gradient of natural gas will not have a significant impact on the total production of natural gas. Therefore, engineers can grasp and control the growth gradient of natural gas based on the total production of natural gas corresponding to each growth gradient.

[0153] It should be noted that this application only provides four illustrative natural gas price adjustment strategies and does not limit the type or number of natural gas price adjustment strategies.

[0154] Figure 6 A block diagram of a natural gas total production determination apparatus according to an exemplary embodiment of this application is shown. This apparatus can be applied to a computer device, which can be implemented as a server. The apparatus includes:

[0155] The initial data acquisition module 610 is used to acquire initial natural gas data and forecast data volume N, where N is a positive integer. The initial natural gas data includes initial natural gas price data, initial natural gas supply data, initial natural gas demand data, and initial alternative energy price data. The initial natural gas supply data includes initial total natural gas production and initial natural gas imports. The total natural gas production refers to the domestic natural gas production within a specified time period.

[0156] The natural gas total production acquisition module 620 is used to execute at least one natural gas total production determination process until i = N + 1, and to acquire the natural gas total production corresponding to N time points, with i initially valued as 1.

[0157] The total natural gas production acquisition module 620 includes:

[0158] The supply-demand gap data acquisition submodule is used to acquire the supply-demand gap data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point. The supply-demand gap data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is determined by the natural gas data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point. The natural gas data includes the natural gas price data, the natural gas supply data, the natural gas demand data, and the alternative energy price data. The natural gas supply data includes the total natural gas production and the natural gas import volume.

[0159] The first natural gas total production acquisition submodule is used to acquire the (i-1)th natural gas total production corresponding to the (i-1)th time point;

[0160] The second natural gas total production acquisition submodule is used to determine the i-th natural gas total production corresponding to the i-th time point based on the i-1-th supply and demand difference data and the i-1-th natural gas total production.

[0161] Update the value of i to i+1;

[0162] In response to i=1, the supply-demand difference data corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is determined by the initial natural gas data, and the total natural gas production corresponding to the (i-1)th time point is the initial total natural gas production.

[0163] In one possible implementation, the second total natural gas production acquisition submodule includes:

[0164] The production depreciation calculation unit is used to calculate the production depreciation amount corresponding to the i-1th time point based on the i-1th total natural gas production. The i-1th production depreciation amount is used to represent the calculation error corresponding to the i-1th time point.

[0165] The second natural gas total production calculation unit is used to determine the i-th natural gas total production at the i-th time point based on the i-1-th natural gas total production, the i-1-th supply-demand difference data, and the i-1-th production depreciation.

[0166] In one possible implementation, the (i-1)th natural gas data includes the (i-1)th depreciation factor;

[0167] In one possible implementation, the production depreciation calculation unit is used to calculate the production depreciation amount corresponding to the (i-1)th time point based on the (i-1)th total natural gas production and the (i-1)th depreciation factor.

[0168] In one possible implementation, the initial data acquisition module 610 is used to acquire the i-1 difference as the i-1 supply-demand gap data in response to the i-1 natural gas demand data and the i-1 natural gas supply data in the i-1 natural gas data being greater than 0.

[0169] In response to the fact that the difference between the i-1th natural gas demand data and the i-1th natural gas supply data in the i-1th natural gas data is less than or equal to 0, the i-1th supply-demand difference data is obtained as 0.

[0170] In one possible implementation, the natural gas user group includes a first group and a second group; the first group corresponds to a first natural gas price data, and the second group corresponds to a second natural gas price data, wherein the second natural gas price data is greater than or equal to the first natural gas price data; the initial natural gas price data includes initial first natural gas price data and initial second natural gas price data; the initial natural gas demand data includes initial natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group and initial natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group, and the device further includes:

[0171] The first natural gas demand data calculation module is used to calculate the natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group based on the first natural gas price data, the (i-1)th alternative energy price data, the first discount factor, and the natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group (i1-1); the first discount factor is the discount factor corresponding to the first group.

[0172] The second natural gas demand data calculation module is used to calculate the i2 natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group based on the second natural gas price data, the i-1th alternative energy price data, the second discount factor, and the i2-1th natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group; the second discount factor is the discount factor corresponding to the second group.

[0173] The natural gas demand data calculation module is used to calculate the natural gas demand data corresponding to the i-th time point based on the i-th natural gas demand data and the i-th natural gas demand data.

[0174] In one possible implementation, the first group corresponds to a first group growth rate, and the second group corresponds to a second group growth rate;

[0175] The first sub-module for calculating natural gas demand data includes:

[0176] The first gas demand growth acquisition submodule is used to obtain the first gas demand growth corresponding to the first group based on the first natural gas price data corresponding to the first time point i-1 when the price data of the alternative energy at the i-1th time point is greater than the price data of the first natural gas at the i-1th time point i1 ...

[0177] In response to the i-1th alternative energy price data being less than or equal to the first natural gas price data, based on the i1-1th natural gas demand data, the growth rate of the first group and the first discount factor, the i-th gas demand growth corresponding to the first group is obtained;

[0178] The first sub-module for calculating natural gas demand data is used to calculate the natural gas demand data of the first group based on the growth in gas demand of the i1-1th group and the natural gas demand data of the i1-1th group.

[0179] In one possible implementation, the second sub-natural gas demand data calculation module includes:

[0180] The second gas demand growth acquisition submodule is used to obtain the second gas demand growth corresponding to the second group based on the i2-1 natural gas demand data and the second group growth rate when the i-1 alternative energy price data is greater than the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i-1 time point.

[0181] In response to the fact that the price data of the i-1th alternative energy is less than or equal to the price data of the second natural gas, based on the natural gas demand data of the i2-1th group, the growth rate of the second group and the second discount factor, the gas demand growth of the i2th group corresponding to the second group is obtained.

[0182] The second submodule for calculating natural gas demand data is used to calculate the natural gas demand data for the second group based on the growth in gas demand for the second group and the natural gas demand data for the i2th group (i2-1th group).

[0183] In one possible implementation, the natural gas price data is determined by a natural gas price data strategy; the natural gas price data strategy includes a first natural gas price data strategy, a second natural gas price data strategy, a third natural gas price data strategy, and a fourth natural gas price data strategy.

[0184] The first natural gas price data strategy indicates that the first natural gas price data for N time points are all the same, and the second natural gas price data for N time points are all the same.

[0185] The second natural gas price data strategy indicates that the difference between the first natural gas price data at the i-th time point and the first natural gas price data at the (i-1)-th time point is the first specified growth value; the difference between the second natural gas price data at the i-th time point and the second natural gas price data at the (i-1)-th time point is the second specified growth value.

[0186] The third natural gas price data strategy indicates that the second natural gas price data corresponding to N time points is determined by the imported natural gas price corresponding to N time points, and the first natural gas price data corresponding to N time points is the same.

[0187] The fourth natural gas price data strategy indicates that: the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i-th time point is determined by the alternative energy price data corresponding to the (i-1)-th time point; the first natural gas price data corresponding to the i-th time point is determined by the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i-th time point.

[0188] In summary, the method for determining total natural gas production provided in this application iterates through initial natural gas data, including initial natural gas price data, initial natural gas supply data, initial natural gas demand data, and initial alternative energy price data, N times. Based on this initial natural gas data, it predicts the total natural gas production at each of the next N time points. This achieves the goal of predicting total natural gas production based on natural gas prices, providing a feasible method for predicting total natural gas production from the micro perspective of natural gas prices, while also improving the accuracy of predicting total natural gas production.

[0189] Figure 7This is a structural block diagram of a computer device 700 according to an exemplary embodiment. The computer device may be a server for executing the natural gas total production determination method provided in the embodiments of this application. The computer device 700 includes a Central Processing Unit (CPU) 701, a system memory 704 including Random Access Memory (RAM) 702 and Read-Only Memory (ROM) 703, and a system bus 705 connecting the system memory 704 and the CPU 701. The computer device 700 also includes a basic input / output system (I / O system) 706 to facilitate information transfer between various devices within the computer, and a mass storage device 707 for storing an operating system 713, application programs 714, and other program modules 715.

[0190] The basic input / output system 706 includes a display 708 for displaying information and an input device 709 for user input, such as a mouse or keyboard. Both the display 708 and the input device 709 are connected to the central processing unit 701 via an input / output controller 710 connected to the system bus 705. The basic input / output system 707 may also include an input / output controller 710 for receiving and processing input from multiple other devices such as a keyboard, mouse, or electronic stylus. Similarly, the input / output controller 710 also provides output to a display screen, printer, or other types of output devices.

[0191] The mass storage device 707 is connected to the central processing unit 701 via a mass storage controller (not shown) connected to the system bus 705. The mass storage device 707 and its associated computer-readable media provide non-volatile storage for the computer device 700. That is, the mass storage device 707 may include computer-readable media (not shown) such as a hard disk or a compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM) drive.

[0192] Without loss of generality, the computer-readable medium may include computer storage media and communication media. Computer storage media include volatile and non-volatile, removable and non-removable media implemented using any method or technology for storing information such as computer-readable instructions, data structures, program modules, or other data. Computer storage media include RAM, ROM, erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), flash memory or other solid-state storage technologies, CD-ROM, digital versatile disc (DVD) or other optical storage, magnetic tape cassettes, magnetic tape, disk storage, or other magnetic storage devices. Of course, those skilled in the art will recognize that the computer storage media are not limited to the above-mentioned types. The system memory 704 and mass storage device 707 described above can be collectively referred to as memory.

[0193] According to various embodiments of this application, the computer device 700 can also be connected to a remote computer on a network, such as the Internet. That is, the computer device 700 can be connected to a network 712 via a network interface unit 711 connected to the system bus 705, or the network interface unit 711 can be used to connect to other types of networks or remote computer systems (not shown).

[0194] The memory also includes one or more programs, which are stored in the memory, and the central processing unit 701 implements the functions by executing the one or more programs. Figure 1 , Figure 2 or Figure 3 All or part of the steps of the method shown.

[0195] Those skilled in the art will understand that the functions described in the embodiments of this application in one or more of the above examples can be implemented using hardware, software, firmware, or any combination thereof. When implemented using software, these functions can be stored in a computer-readable medium or transmitted as one or more instructions or code on a computer-readable medium. Computer-readable media include computer storage media and communication media, wherein communication media include any medium that facilitates the transmission of a computer program from one place to another. Storage media can be any available medium that can be accessed by a general-purpose or special-purpose computer.

[0196] In one exemplary embodiment, a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium including instructions is also provided, such as a memory including at least one instruction, at least one program, code set, or instruction set, wherein the at least one instruction, at least one program, code set, or instruction set can be executed by a processor to perform the above-described task. Figure 1 , Figure 2 or Figure 3 All or part of the steps of the method shown in any embodiment. For example, the non-transitory computer-readable storage medium may be ROM, RAM, CD-ROM, magnetic tape, floppy disk, and optical data storage device, etc.

[0197] This application also provides a computer program product or computer program, which includes computer instructions stored in a computer-readable storage medium. A processor of a computer device reads the computer instructions from the computer-readable storage medium and executes the computer instructions, causing the computer device to perform the aforementioned actions. Figure 1 , Figure 2 or Figure 3 All or part of the steps of the method for determining total natural gas production shown in any embodiment.

[0198] Other embodiments of this application will readily occur to those skilled in the art upon consideration of the specification and practice of the invention disclosed herein. This application is intended to cover any variations, uses, or adaptations of this application that follow the general principles of this application and include common knowledge or customary techniques in the art not disclosed herein. The specification and examples are to be considered exemplary only, and the true scope and spirit of this application are indicated by the following claims.

[0199] It should be understood that this application is not limited to the precise structure described above and shown in the accompanying drawings, and various modifications and changes can be made without departing from its scope. The scope of this application is limited only by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A method for determining total gas production, characterized by, The method comprises: obtaining initial natural gas data and a predicted data quantity N, N being a positive integer; the initial natural gas data comprising initial natural gas price data, initial natural gas supply quantity data, initial natural gas demand quantity data and initial alternative energy price data; the initial natural gas supply quantity data comprising initial total natural gas production and initial natural gas import quantity; the total natural gas production referring to domestic natural gas production in a specified time period; performing at least one total natural gas production determination process until i = N + 1, to obtain total natural gas production corresponding to N time points, i being initially 1; the total natural gas production determination process comprising: obtaining i-1 supply-demand difference data corresponding to an i-1 time point; the i-1 supply-demand difference data corresponding to the i-1 time point being determined by i-1 natural gas data corresponding to the i-1 time point; the i-1 natural gas data comprising i-1 natural gas price data, i-1 natural gas supply quantity data, i-1 natural gas demand quantity data and i-1 alternative energy price data; the i-1 natural gas supply quantity data comprising i-1 total natural gas production and i-1 natural gas import quantity; obtaining i-1 total natural gas production corresponding to the i-1 time point; determining i-th total natural gas production corresponding to an i time point based on the i-1 supply-demand difference data and the i-1 total natural gas production; updating the value of i to i + 1; wherein, in response to i = 1, the supply-demand difference data corresponding to the i-1 time point is determined by the initial natural gas data, and the total natural gas production corresponding to the i-1 time point is the initial total natural gas production.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein, determining i-th total natural gas production corresponding to an i time point based on the i-1 supply-demand difference data and the i-1 total natural gas production, comprises: calculating i-1 production depreciation quantity corresponding to the i-1 time point based on the i-1 total natural gas production, the i-1 production depreciation quantity being used to represent calculation error corresponding to the i-1 time point; determining the i-th total natural gas production corresponding to the i time point based on the i-1 total natural gas production, the i-1 supply-demand difference data and the i-1 production depreciation quantity.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein, The i-1 natural gas data contains an i-1 depreciation coefficient; the calculation of the i-1 production depreciation quantity corresponding to the i-1 time point based on the i-1 total natural gas production, comprises: calculating the i-1 production depreciation quantity corresponding to the i-1 time point based on the i-1 total natural gas production and the i-1 depreciation coefficient.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein, The obtaining of the i-1 supply-demand difference data corresponding to the i-1 time point, comprises: in response to an i-1 difference between i-1 natural gas demand quantity data and i-1 natural gas supply quantity data in the i-1 natural gas data being greater than 0, obtaining the i-1 difference as the i-1 supply-demand difference data; In response to the i-1th difference between the i-1th natural gas demand data and the i-1th natural gas supply data being less than or equal to 0, the i-1th supply-demand difference data is obtained as 0.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein, The natural gas users include a first group and a second group; the first group corresponds to first natural gas price data, and the second group corresponds to second natural gas price data, the second natural gas price data being greater than or equal to the first natural gas price data; the initial natural gas price data includes initial first natural gas price data and initial second natural gas price data; The initial natural gas demand data includes initial natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group and initial natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group, and the method further includes: based on the first natural gas price data, the i-1th alternative energy price data, a first discount coefficient and the i1-1th natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group, calculating i1th natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group; the first discount coefficient is a discount coefficient corresponding to the first group; based on the second natural gas price data, the i-1th alternative energy price data, a second discount coefficient and the i2-1th natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group, calculating i2th natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group; the second discount coefficient is a discount coefficient corresponding to the second group; based on the i1th natural gas demand data and the i2th natural gas demand data, calculating ith natural gas demand data corresponding to the i th time point.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein, The first group corresponds to a first group growth rate, and the second group corresponds to a second group growth rate; based on the first natural gas price data, the i-1th alternative energy price data, a first discount coefficient and the i1-1th natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group, calculating i1th natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group, including: in response to the i-1th alternative energy price data being greater than the first natural gas price data corresponding to the i-1th time point, based on the i1-1th natural gas demand data and the first group growth rate, obtaining i1th gas demand growth corresponding to the first group; in response to the i-1th alternative energy price data being less than or equal to the first natural gas price data corresponding to the i-1th time point, based on the i1-1th natural gas demand data, the first group growth rate and the first discount coefficient, obtaining i1th gas demand growth corresponding to the first group; based on the i1th gas demand growth and the i1-1th natural gas demand data, calculating i1th natural gas demand data corresponding to the first group; based on the second natural gas price data, the i-1th alternative energy price data, a second discount coefficient and the i2-1th natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group, calculating i2th natural gas demand data corresponding to the second group, including: in response to the i-1th alternative energy price data being greater than the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i-1th time point, obtaining the i2th gas demand growth of the second group based on the i2-1th natural gas demand data and the second group growth rate; in response to the i-1th alternative energy price data being less than or equal to the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i-1th time point, obtaining the i2th gas demand growth of the second group based on the i2-1th natural gas demand data, the second group growth rate and the second discount coefficient; calculating the i2th natural gas demand data of the second group based on the i2th gas demand growth and the i2-1th natural gas demand data.

7. The method of any one of claims 5 to 6, wherein, The natural gas price data is determined by a natural gas price data strategy; the natural gas price data strategy includes a first natural gas price data strategy, a second natural gas price data strategy, a third natural gas price data strategy and a fourth natural gas price data strategy; The first natural gas price data strategy indicates that the first natural gas price data corresponding to the N time points are all the same, and the second natural gas price data corresponding to the N time points are all the same; The second natural gas price data strategy indicates that the difference between the first natural gas price data corresponding to the i th time point and the first natural gas price data corresponding to the i-1th time point is a first specified growth value; the difference between the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i th time point and the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i-1th time point is a second specified growth value; The third natural gas price data strategy indicates that the second natural gas price data corresponding to the N time points one by one is determined by the import natural gas price corresponding to the N time points one by one, and the first natural gas price data corresponding to the N time points is the same; The fourth natural gas price data strategy indicates that the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i th time point is determined by the alternative energy price data corresponding to the i-1th time point; the first natural gas data price data corresponding to the i th time is determined by the second natural gas price data corresponding to the i th time.

8. A natural gas gross production determination device characterized by, The device comprises: An initial data acquisition module for acquiring initial natural gas data and a predicted data quantity N, N being a positive integer; the initial natural gas data including initial natural gas price data, initial natural gas supply quantity data, initial natural gas demand quantity data and initial alternative energy price data; the initial natural gas supply quantity data including initial natural gas total production quantity and initial natural gas import quantity; the natural gas total production quantity refers to domestic natural gas production quantity within a specified time period; A natural gas total production quantity acquisition module for performing at least one natural gas total production quantity determination process until i=N+1, to obtain natural gas total production quantity corresponding to N time points, i being an initial value of 1; The natural gas total production quantity acquisition module comprises: The supply-demand gap data acquisition submodule is configured to acquire i-1 supply-demand gap data corresponding to an i-1 time point; the i-1 supply-demand gap data corresponding to the i-1 time point is determined by i-1 natural gas data corresponding to the i-1 time point; the i-1 natural gas data includes i-1 natural gas price data, i-1 natural gas supply data, i-1 natural gas demand data, and i-1 alternative energy price data; the i-1 natural gas supply data includes i-1 total natural gas production and i-1 natural gas import volume; The first natural gas total production acquisition submodule is configured to acquire i-1 total natural gas production corresponding to the i-1 time point; The second natural gas total production acquisition submodule is configured to determine i natural gas total production corresponding to an i time point based on the i-1 supply-demand gap data and the i-1 total natural gas production; The value of i is updated to i+1; Wherein, in response to i = 1, the supply-demand gap data corresponding to the i-1 time point is determined by the initial natural gas data, and the total natural gas production corresponding to the i-1 time point is the initial total natural gas production.

9. A computer device, comprising: The computer device includes a processor and a memory, and the memory stores at least one instruction, at least one program, a code set or an instruction set, which is loaded and executed by the processor to realize the natural gas total production determination method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The computer readable storage medium stores at least one instruction, at least one program, a code set or an instruction set, which is loaded and executed by the processor to realize the natural gas total production determination method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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