A typhoon track trend change confirmation method, system, device and medium

Abstract

The application belongs to the technical field of data analysis and processing, and specifically discloses a typhoon track trend change confirmation method, system, device and medium. The method obtains the sea surface pressure disturbance field, the sea surface wind field and the diagnostic field in the sea basin scale. Based on the multi-field joint determination, the typhoon track and the influence area in the climate model data are determined. Further iteration is performed to determine the typhoon track and the influence area data set. Based on the modal decomposition and by using the influence area data set and the TDF method, the typhoon trend change is determined. The method can comprehensively utilize the forecast model data wind pressure field data to jointly research and judge, effectively determine the typhoon center position and the typhoon track, and objectively and reliably determine the typhoon influence range by the sea surface pressure disturbance field, so that the influence of the artificial factor introduced by the artificial given area weight influence factor in the TDF method can be reduced. The typhoon change trend is determined by using the principal component analysis method on the objective typhoon influence range, and the operability is high.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of data analysis and processing technology, specifically a method, system, device, and medium for confirming the trend change of typhoon trajectory. Background Technology

[0002] Typhoons are characterized by high wind speeds and heavy rainfall, causing direct and associated natural disasters in the areas they pass through, resulting in casualties and socio-economic losses. Generally, they cause floods in the south, while drought-stricken areas in the north benefit from their abundant rainfall, alleviating drought conditions. Therefore, accurately predicting the changing trends of typhoon activity is of great significance for national disaster prevention and mitigation and production arrangements. However, current research on typhoon trends relies on statistical analysis using historical typhoon trajectory datasets. Against the backdrop of global warming, climate responses vary under different scenarios, leading to differences in typhoon activity trends across different conditions.

[0003] Currently, research on the historical activity and trends of typhoons mainly employs trajectory methods and regional methods. However, the grid and study area delineation using trajectory methods are highly subjective, while regional methods, although largely eliminating subjective factors, still rely on manually defined coefficients for determining the scope of influence. The conclusions are still based on historical typhoon trajectory datasets, and future typhoon changes depend on empirical judgment. While both methods can reveal future trends in typhoon trajectories, their robustness is insufficient for practical applications. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of this invention is to provide a method, system, device, and medium for confirming the trend changes of typhoon trajectories, so as to solve the technical problems mentioned in the background art.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the embodiments of the present invention provide the following technical solutions.

[0006] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for confirming changes in the trajectory trend of a typhoon, the method comprising the following steps:

[0007] Step S11: Obtain the sea surface pressure disturbance field and sea surface wind field within the basin scale;

[0008] Step S12: Based on multi-field joint judgment, determine the typhoon trajectory and affected area in the climate model data;

[0009] Step S13: Iteratively solve to determine the typhoon trajectory and the dataset of the affected areas;

[0010] Step S14: Modal decomposition, using the affected area dataset to determine the typhoon trend changes.

[0011] In one embodiment of the present invention, the method for joint determination of multiple fields includes: determining the valley area of ​​the pressure disturbance field, where the maximum wind speed exceeds 15 m / s; identifying the closed curve of the pressure disturbance field at -5 hPa, performing circular fitting, determining the range of the typhoon spin motion field, and determining the TDF region weight coefficient using the circular fitting radius of 1.5 times the variance value.

[0012] In one embodiment of the present invention, the typhoon trajectory is determined by a typhoon center location dataset, and the method for determining the typhoon center includes: jointly judging the typhoon center using wind pressure fields, and determining the typhoon center at the minimum value of the wind field within the closed curve of the declimatological sea surface pressure disturbance.

[0013] In one embodiment of the present invention, the method for determining the affected area includes: using a closed curve of declimatological sea surface pressure disturbance to perform circular fitting and determine the typhoon's affected area, and improving the TDF weighting factor by using a range of 1.5 times the variance above and below the mean.

[0014] In one embodiment of the present invention, during the process of determining the typhoon trend change, the EOF method is used to perform modal decomposition on the improved TDF dataset and determine the future typhoon trend change.

[0015] In one embodiment of the present invention, the calculation is performed using the following formula during the multi-field joint determination process: Where P is the sea surface pressure field. This represents the sea surface pressure disturbance field. Let represent the climatological mean sea surface pressure field, u and v represent the meridional and zonal components of the wind field, respectively, and U represent the wind speed field.

[0016] Secondly, the present invention also provides a typhoon trajectory trend change confirmation system, the system being used to implement the confirmation method provided in the first aspect, the system comprising:

[0017] The data acquisition module is used to acquire the sea surface pressure disturbance field and sea surface wind field within the basin scale.

[0018] The data processing module is used to determine the typhoon trajectory and affected area in climate model data based on multi-field joint judgment;

[0019] An iterative solution module is used to iteratively solve and determine the typhoon trajectory and the dataset of the affected areas.

[0020] The mode decomposition module is used for mode decomposition to determine the trend changes of typhoons using the affected area dataset.

[0021] Thirdly, the present invention also provides a computer device, the computer device including a memory and a processor, the memory storing computer-readable instructions, and the processor executing the computer-readable instructions to implement the steps of the typhoon trajectory trend change confirmation method provided in the first aspect.

[0022] Fourthly, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing computer-readable instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the steps of the typhoon trajectory trend change confirmation method provided in the first aspect.

[0023] Compared with existing technologies, the typhoon trajectory trend change confirmation method provided by this invention obtains the sea surface pressure disturbance field and sea surface wind field within the basin scale; and determines the typhoon trajectory and affected area in climate model data based on multi-field joint judgment; further iteratively solves to determine the typhoon trajectory and affected area dataset; and determines the typhoon trend change based on mode decomposition and using the affected area dataset. This allows the determination method of this invention to comprehensively utilize forecast model data and wind pressure field data for joint analysis, effectively determining the typhoon center location and typhoon trajectory; and the determination of the typhoon's impact range through the sea surface pressure disturbance field is objective and reliable, which can reduce the human factors introduced by the artificially given regional weight influence factor in the TDF method; this invention uses the principal component analysis method to determine the typhoon change trend of the objective typhoon impact range, which has strong operability and the results have important reference value. Attached Figure Description

[0024] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the accompanying drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the accompanying drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention.

[0025] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating the implementation of the typhoon trajectory trend change confirmation method provided by the present invention;

[0026] Figure 2 This invention provides a climate model showing pressure disturbances and wind field diagrams at typhoon times.

[0027] Figure 3 It is to utilize The TDF influence area map obtained by fitting the -5 hPa curve and the typhoon center map determined by the minimum wind field value within the area.

[0028] Figure 4 It is a typhoon trajectory map extracted from climate data within the Northwest Pacific Basin;

[0029] Figure 5 This is the EOF mode decomposition diagram of the improved TDF;

[0030] Figure 6 This is a structural block diagram of the typhoon trajectory trend change confirmation system provided by the present invention; Detailed Implementation

[0031] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0032] Furthermore, the technical features of the various embodiments or individual embodiments provided by the present invention can be arbitrarily combined with each other to form a feasible technical solution. Such combination is not constrained by the order of steps and / or the structural composition mode, but must be based on the ability of a person skilled in the art to implement it. When the combination of technical solutions is contradictory or cannot be implemented, it should be considered that such combination of technical solutions does not exist and is not within the scope of protection claimed by the present invention.

[0033] Climate predictability is a crucial research area for addressing natural disasters and climate change. Climate models are one of the primary tools scientists use to understand how climate has changed in the past and how it may change in the future. These models simulate the formation, dissipation, and evolution of ocean-atmosphere physical processes in great detail. Represented by the IPCC-CMIP experiment, the spatiotemporal resolution of the mainstream climate prediction models involved is sufficient to identify the formation, dissipation, and evolution of typhoons. Therefore, utilizing climate model climate change forecast products to conduct typhoon predictability research, obtain typhoon trajectories under different scenarios, and determine their trend changes has significant practical implications.

[0034] Currently, research on the historical trends of typhoon activity mainly employs trajectory methods and regional methods. While both methods can conclude that current typhoon activity is migrating towards the polar regions, trajectory methods involve significant subjectivity in grid design and study area delineation. Regional methods, while largely eliminating subjective factors, still rely on manually defined coefficients for determining the scope of influence. Therefore, the conclusions are still based on historical typhoon trajectory datasets, and future typhoon changes depend on empirical judgment. Although both methods can reveal future trends in typhoon trajectories, their robustness is insufficient for practical applications.

[0035] To address the aforementioned problems, this invention provides a method, system, device, and medium for confirming typhoon trajectory trend changes. The method involves acquiring the sea surface pressure disturbance field and sea surface wind field within a basin-scale; determining the typhoon trajectory and affected area from climate model data based on multi-field joint analysis; further iteratively solving to determine the typhoon trajectory and affected area dataset; and determining the typhoon trend change based on modal decomposition and the affected area dataset. This method allows for comprehensive analysis using forecast model data and wind pressure field data, effectively determining the typhoon center location and trajectory. Furthermore, determining the typhoon's impact range through the sea surface pressure disturbance field is objective and reliable, reducing the human factor introduced by the artificially assigned regional weighting factor in the TDF method. This invention utilizes principal component analysis to determine the objective typhoon impact range and its trend, demonstrating strong operability and providing valuable reference results.

[0036] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the present invention clearer, the embodiments of the present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0037] Example 1

[0038] like Figure 1 As shown in Embodiment 1 of the present invention, a method for confirming the trend change of a typhoon trajectory includes the following steps:

[0039] Step S11: Obtain the sea surface pressure disturbance field and sea surface wind field within the basin scale;

[0040] Step S12: Based on multi-field joint judgment, determine the typhoon trajectory and affected area in the climate model data;

[0041] Step S13: Iteratively solve to determine the typhoon trajectory and the dataset of the affected areas;

[0042] Step S14: Modal decomposition, using the affected area dataset to determine the typhoon trend changes.

[0043] In step S13 provided in this embodiment of the invention, all data of the model are identified and analyzed one by one according to time to determine the typhoon trajectory and the dataset of the affected area;

[0044] In step S14 of this embodiment of the invention, mode decomposition is performed using the EOF analysis method, and the trend change of the typhoon is determined using the dataset of the affected area.

[0045] Furthermore, in this embodiment of the invention, the method for joint determination of multiple fields includes: determining the valley area of ​​the pressure disturbance field, where the maximum wind speed exceeds 15 m / s; identifying the closed curve of the pressure disturbance field at -5 hPa, performing circular fitting, determining the range of the typhoon spin motion field, and using the circular fitting radius of 1.5 times the variance value to determine the TDF region weight coefficient.

[0046] Furthermore, in this embodiment of the invention, the typhoon trajectory is determined by a typhoon center location dataset, and the method for determining the typhoon center includes: jointly analyzing the typhoon center using wind pressure fields, and determining the typhoon center at the minimum value of the wind field within the closed curve of the declimatological sea surface pressure disturbance.

[0047] Furthermore, in this embodiment of the invention, the method for determining the affected area includes: using a closed curve of declimatological sea surface pressure disturbance to perform circular fitting and determine the typhoon's affected area, and improving the TDF weighting factor by using a range of 1.5 times the variance above and below the mean.

[0048] Furthermore, in this embodiment of the invention, during the process of determining the typhoon trend change, the EOF method is used to perform modal decomposition on the improved TDF dataset and determine the future typhoon trend change.

[0049] In one embodiment of the present invention, the calculation is performed using the following formula during the multi-field joint determination process: Where P is the sea surface pressure field. This represents the sea surface pressure disturbance field. Let represent the climatological mean sea surface pressure field, u and v represent the meridional and zonal components of the wind field, respectively, and U represent the wind speed field.

[0050] This invention uses long-term daily forecast data as an example to describe the method for confirming typhoon trajectory trend changes provided in Embodiment 1 of this invention:

[0051] Step 1: First, determine the 30-year average climatological sea surface pressure field. Calculate the daily sea surface pressure perturbation field. And sea surface wind field U, such as Figure 2 As shown;

[0052] Step 2: Traverse all daily sea surface pressure disturbance fields Data, drawing Contour lines, and determine The isopleths at -5 hPa were used for circular fitting to determine the typhoon center area, resulting in the typhoon center area region and dataset. The typhoon center area region is shown below. Figure 3 As shown;

[0053] Step 3: Iterate through all daily wind speed field U data and match them to the data for that day. In the valley area, the minimum wind speed within the valley area is determined, and the location of the typhoon center and the dataset are obtained. The location of the typhoon center is as follows: Figure 3 As shown;

[0054] Step 4: Using the typhoon center area dataset obtained in Step 2, perform statistical analysis, and improve the TDF regional weighting factor using a range of 1.5 times the variance above and below the mean. Combine this with the typhoon center location dataset obtained in Step 3, such as... Figure 4 As shown, calculate the TDF dataset;

[0055] Step 5: Perform EOF decomposition on the TDF dataset to obtain the main modes and determine the typhoon trend change characteristics, such as... Figure 5 As shown.

[0056] Figure 5 The first mode in the results is consistent with the first mode in the study by Sun et al. (2019), indicating that this method can effectively determine the location of the typhoon center. The second and third modes are similar to the modes in the study by Sun et al. (2020) but their contributions are reversed, indicating that this method can effectively reveal the future trajectory change trend of typhoons. Moreover, by changing the influence range coefficient in TDF, it can be found that the future typhoon will mainly follow the east-west oscillation mode towards the shore, with a secondary northward trend, which has important reference significance for the future disaster prevention and mitigation strategy layout.

[0057] Therefore, the typhoon trajectory trend change confirmation method provided by this invention obtains the sea surface pressure disturbance field and sea surface wind field within the basin scale; and determines the typhoon trajectory and affected area in the climate model data based on multi-field joint judgment; further iteratively solves to determine the typhoon trajectory and affected area dataset; and determines the typhoon trend change based on mode decomposition and using the affected area dataset. This allows the determination method of this invention to comprehensively utilize forecast model data and wind pressure field data for joint analysis, effectively determining the typhoon center location and typhoon trajectory; and the determination of the typhoon's affected area through the sea surface pressure disturbance field is objective and reliable, which can reduce the human factors introduced by the artificially given regional weight influence factor in the TDF method; this invention uses the principal component analysis method to determine the typhoon change trend of the objective typhoon affected area, which has strong operability and the results have important reference value.

[0058] Example 2

[0059] like Figure 6 As shown, in Embodiment 2 of the present invention, a typhoon trajectory trend change confirmation system is provided. The system is used to implement the confirmation method provided in the first aspect, and the system includes:

[0060] Field data acquisition module 21, the data acquisition module is used to acquire the sea surface pressure disturbance field and sea surface wind field within the basin scale;

[0061] Data processing module 22 is used to determine the typhoon trajectory and affected area in climate model data based on multi-field joint judgment;

[0062] Iterative solution module 23, which is used to iteratively solve and determine the typhoon trajectory and the dataset of the affected area;

[0063] Modal decomposition module 24 is used for modal decomposition to determine the trend changes of typhoons using the affected area dataset.

[0064] Example 3

[0065] In Embodiment 3 of the present invention, a computer device is provided, the computer device including a memory and a processor, the memory storing computer-readable instructions, and the processor executing the computer-readable instructions to implement the steps of the typhoon trajectory trend change confirmation method provided in Embodiment 1.

[0066] Specifically, the steps of the method for confirming the trend change of the typhoon trajectory include:

[0067] Step S11: Obtain the sea surface pressure disturbance field and sea surface wind field within the basin scale;

[0068] Step S12: Based on multi-field joint judgment, determine the typhoon trajectory and affected area in the climate model data;

[0069] Step S13: Iteratively solve to determine the typhoon trajectory and the dataset of the affected areas;

[0070] Step S14: Modal decomposition, using the affected area dataset to determine the typhoon trend changes.

[0071] Furthermore, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing computer-readable instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the steps of the typhoon trajectory trend change confirmation method provided in Embodiment 1.

[0072] Specifically, the steps of the method for confirming the trend change of the typhoon trajectory include:

[0073] Step S11: Obtain the sea surface pressure disturbance field and sea surface wind field within the basin scale;

[0074] Step S12: Based on multi-field joint judgment, determine the typhoon trajectory and affected area in the climate model data;

[0075] Step S13: Iteratively solve to determine the typhoon trajectory and the dataset of the affected areas;

[0076] Step S14: Modal decomposition, using the affected area dataset to determine the typhoon trend changes.

[0077] In the several embodiments provided by this invention, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus and methods can be implemented in other ways. For example, the apparatus embodiments described above are merely illustrative; for instance, the division of units is only a logical functional division, and in actual implementation, there may be other division methods. For example, multiple units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be ignored or not executed. Furthermore, the coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed may be through some interfaces; the indirect coupling or communication connection between apparatuses or units may be electrical, mechanical, or other forms.

[0078] The units described as separate components may or may not be physically separate. The components shown as units may or may not be physical units; that is, they may be located in one place or distributed across multiple network units. Some or all of the units can be selected to achieve the purpose of this embodiment according to actual needs.

[0079] Furthermore, the functional units in the various embodiments of the present invention can be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit can exist physically separately, or two or more units can be integrated into one unit. The integrated unit can be implemented in hardware or in the form of hardware plus software functional units.

[0080] In a typical configuration of an embodiment of the present invention, the terminal, the service network device, and the computing device include one or more processors (CPUs), input / output interfaces, network interfaces, and memory.

[0081] Memory may include non-persistent storage in computer-readable media, such as random access memory (RAM) and / or non-volatile memory, such as read-only memory (ROM) or flash RAM. Memory is an example of computer-readable media.

[0082] Computer-readable media, including both permanent and non-permanent, removable and non-removable media, can store information using any method or technology. Information can be computer-readable instructions, data structures, program modules, or other data.

[0083] Examples of computer storage media include, but are not limited to, phase-change memory (PRAM), static random access memory (SRAM), dynamic random access memory (DRAM), other types of random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), flash memory or other memory technologies, CD-ROM, digital versatile optical disc (DVD) or other optical storage, magnetic tape, magnetic disk storage or other magnetic storage devices, or any other non-transferable medium that can be used to store information that can be accessed by a computing device. As defined herein, computer-readable media does not include non-transitory computer-readable media, such as modulated data signals and carrier waves.

[0084] Those skilled in the art will clearly understand that, for the sake of convenience and brevity, the above-described division of functional modules is merely an example. In practical applications, the above functions can be assigned to different functional modules as needed, that is, the internal structure of the device can be divided into different functional modules to complete all or part of the functions described above. The specific working process of the device described above can be referred to the corresponding process in the foregoing method embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0085] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, and are not intended to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications can still be made to the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or equivalent substitutions can be made to some or all of the technical features therein. Such modifications or substitutions do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

[0086] Other embodiments of this disclosure will readily occur to those skilled in the art upon consideration of the specification and practice of the invention disclosed herein. The embodiments of this disclosure are intended to cover any variations, uses, or adaptations of this disclosure that follow the general principles of this disclosure and include common knowledge or customary techniques in the art not disclosed herein. The specification and embodiments are to be considered exemplary only, and the true scope and spirit of this disclosure are indicated by the following claims.

[0087] It should be understood that this disclosure is not limited to the precise structures described above and shown in the accompanying drawings, and various modifications and changes can be made without departing from its scope. The scope of this disclosure is limited only by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A method for confirming the trend change of a typhoon's trajectory, characterized in that, The method for confirming the trend change of typhoon trajectory includes the following steps: Step S11: Obtain the sea surface pressure disturbance field and sea surface wind field within the basin scale; Step S12: Based on multi-field joint judgment, determine the typhoon trajectory and affected area in the climate model data; In the process of multi-field joint determination, the following formula is used for calculation. Where P is the sea surface pressure field. This represents the sea surface pressure disturbance field. The climatological mean sea surface pressure field is represented by u and v, which are the meridional and zonal components of the wind field, respectively, and U is the wind speed field. Step S13: Iteratively solve to determine the typhoon trajectory and the dataset of the affected areas; Step S14: Modal decomposition, using the affected area dataset to determine the typhoon trend changes.

2. The method for confirming typhoon trajectory trend changes according to claim 1, characterized in that, The method for joint determination of multiple fields includes: identifying the valley area of ​​the pressure disturbance field, where the maximum wind speed exceeds 15 m / s; identifying the closed curve of the pressure disturbance field at -5 hPa, performing circular fitting, determining the range of the typhoon spin motion field, and using the circular fitting radius of 1.5 times the variance value to determine the TDF regional weight coefficient.

3. The method for confirming typhoon trajectory trend changes according to claim 2, characterized in that, The typhoon trajectory is determined through a typhoon center location dataset. The method for determining the typhoon center includes: jointly analyzing the typhoon center using wind pressure fields, and determining the typhoon center at the minimum value of the wind field within the closed curve of the declimatological sea surface pressure disturbance.

4. The method for confirming typhoon trajectory trend changes according to claim 3, characterized in that, The method for determining the affected area includes: using a closed curve of declimatological sea surface pressure disturbance to perform circular fitting and determine the typhoon's affected area, and improving the TDF weighting factor by using a range of 1.5 times the variance above and below the mean.

5. The method for confirming typhoon trajectory trend changes according to claim 4, characterized in that, In the process of determining the trend changes of the typhoon, the EOF method is used to perform modal decomposition on the improved TDF dataset and determine the future trend changes of the typhoon.

6. A typhoon trajectory trend change confirmation system, executed according to claim 1, characterized in that, The system is used to implement the verification method as described in any one of claims 1-5, the system comprising: The data acquisition module is used to acquire the sea surface pressure disturbance field and sea surface wind field within the basin scale. The data processing module is used to determine the typhoon trajectory and affected area in climate model data based on multi-field joint judgment; An iterative solution module is used to iteratively solve and determine the typhoon trajectory and the dataset of the affected areas. The mode decomposition module is used for mode decomposition to determine the trend changes of typhoons using the affected area dataset.

7. A computer device, characterized in that, The computer device includes a memory and a processor. The memory stores computer-readable instructions, and the processor executes the computer-readable instructions to implement the steps of the typhoon trajectory trend change confirmation method as described in any one of claims 1-5.

8. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The storage medium stores computer-readable instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the steps of the typhoon trajectory trend change confirmation method as described in any one of claims 1-5.

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