Primary energy-based power risk early warning method, device, medium and equipment
Patent Information
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Patents(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- GUANGDONG POWER GRID CO LTD
- Filing Date
- 2022-09-08
- Publication Date
- 2026-05-12
AI Technical Summary
At present, power dispatch mainly monitors the coal inventory of power plants from the perspective of ensuring power balance, while ignoring the impact of coal-fired power plant contract volume on the coverage rate of annual power generation, resulting in insufficient assessment of power dispatch risks.
通过获取燃煤电厂的煤炭合约量，计算煤炭总量、合约发电量和覆盖率，利用ARMA模型预测社会电量增长率，根据覆盖率进行不同级别的电力风险预警，包括红色、黄色、白色预警和正常情况。
It enables the provision of early warnings to power dispatching entities based on the correlation between the contracted power generation coverage of coal-fired power plants and power dispatching risks, prompting adjustments to coal inventory and power generation to meet practical application needs.
Smart Images
Figure CN115619210B_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] This application relates to the field of power management technology, and in particular to a power risk early warning method, device, storage medium and power equipment based on primary energy. Background Technology
[0002] Based on their basic form, energy can be classified into primary energy and secondary energy. Primary energy can be further divided into renewable energy (hydropower, wind power, and biomass energy) and non-renewable energy (coal, oil, natural gas, oil shale, etc.). Energy that can be continuously replenished or regenerated within a relatively short period is called renewable energy. Energy formed over hundreds of millions of years and unable to be replenished in the short term is called non-renewable energy.
[0003] Coal, as a crucial component of primary energy sources, plays a vital role in all stages of the power industry, including generation, transmission, distribution, and supply. However, current power dispatching primarily monitors power plant coal inventories from the perspective of ensuring power balance, neglecting the impact of coal-fired power plant contract volumes on the annual power generation coverage rate of power plants. Summary of the Invention
[0004] Therefore, it is necessary to provide a method, device, storage medium, and power equipment based on primary energy sources to address the above-mentioned technical problems. This method can calculate and provide early warnings based on the impact of coal-fired power plant contract volume on the annual power generation coverage rate of the power plant in power dispatching.
[0005] This invention provides a power risk early warning method based on primary energy sources, the method comprising the following steps:
[0006] Obtain the coal contract quantity of each coal-fired power plant in the current region for the next power supply cycle, and calculate the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle based on the coal contract quantity;
[0007] The contracted power generation of each coal-fired power plant is calculated based on the coal consumption of each unit in the coal-fired power plant and the total amount of coal.
[0008] The coal contract coverage rate is calculated based on the coal contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant, as well as the power generation of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply cycle and the social power generation growth rate in the next power supply cycle. Different levels of power risk warnings are then issued based on the coal contract coverage rate.
[0009] Furthermore, the model for calculating the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle is as follows:
[0010]
[0011] Where, m total,km represents the total coal contract amount for power plant k. i,k Let n represent the amount of coal supplied by power plant k under contract i, and n represent the number of contracts.
[0012] Furthermore, the model for calculating the contracted coal power generation of each coal-fired power plant is as follows:
[0013]
[0014]
[0015] Among them, W k w represents the contracted electricity generation capacity of power plant k (coal). k q represents the coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of power generation for power plant k, w represents the standard coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of power generation for the units within power plant k, and q represents the standard coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of power generation for the units within power plant k. 7000 q represents the lower heating value of standard coal. used This indicates the lower heating value of the coal used for power generation by the generating units in power plant k.
[0016] Furthermore, the model for calculating the approximate coal coverage is as follows:
[0017]
[0018] Where, p k W represents the coal contract volume coverage ratio. k，history Let η represent the power generation of power plant k in the previous power supply cycle, and let η represent the social power generation growth rate in the next power supply cycle.
[0019] Furthermore, the method for obtaining the social electricity consumption growth rate specifically includes:
[0020] Obtain the social electricity consumption growth rate data for a preset power supply cycle and perform a stability test.
[0021] Determine whether the data after stationarity testing contains a unit root;
[0022] If so, then re-verify;
[0023] If not, an ARMA model is created based on the data after stationarity verification, and the social electricity growth rate is predicted based on the ARMA model with the selected lag order to obtain the social electricity growth rate.
[0024] Furthermore, the ARMA model is as follows:
[0025]
[0026] Where, η t Let η represent the social electricity consumption growth rate in period t, c represent the constant term, and η represent the total electricity consumption growth rate in period t. t-iLet represent the social electricity growth rate with lag i, tj represent the error term with lag j, p represent a p-order autoregressive model, q represent a q-order moving average model, and a i b represents the relative coefficient of the social electricity growth rate lagged by period i. j This represents the relative coefficient of the error term with a lag of j periods.
[0027] Furthermore, different levels of power risk warnings are issued based on the coverage rate of the coalfields, specifically including:
[0028] The coverage rate of the coal seam is compared with a preset warning level threshold. A red warning is issued when the coverage rate of the coal seam is the first warning level threshold; a yellow warning is issued when the coverage rate of the coal seam is the second warning level threshold; a white warning is issued when the coverage rate of the coal seam is the third warning level threshold; and a normal situation is when the coverage rate of the coal seam is the third warning level threshold. The first warning level threshold is <70%, the second warning level threshold is ≥70% and <80%, the third warning level threshold is ≥80% and <90%, and the fourth warning level threshold is ≥90%.
[0029] Another embodiment of the present invention provides a power risk early warning device based on primary energy sources, the device comprising:
[0030] The total coal quantity calculation module is used to obtain the coal contract quantity of each coal-fired power plant in the current region for the next power supply cycle, and calculate the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle based on the coal contract quantity.
[0031] The contract power generation calculation module is used to calculate the contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant based on the power generation coal consumption of each unit in the coal-fired power plant and the total amount of coal.
[0032] The contract coverage calculation module is used to calculate the coal contract coverage rate based on the coal contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant, as well as the power generation of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply cycle and the social power generation growth rate in the next power supply cycle, and to conduct different levels of power risk warnings based on the coal contract coverage rate.
[0033] Another embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium comprising a stored computer program; wherein, when the computer program is executed, it controls the device in which the computer-readable storage medium is located to perform the power risk early warning method based on primary energy as described above.
[0034] Another embodiment of the present invention provides an electrical device including a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, wherein the processor, when executing the computer program, implements the power risk warning method based on primary energy as described above.
[0035] The aforementioned power risk early warning method based on primary energy sources obtains the coal contract quantity of each coal-fired power plant in the current region for the next power supply cycle, and calculates the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle based on the coal contract quantity; calculates the coal contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant based on the power generation coal consumption of each unit in the coal-fired power plant and the total amount of coal; calculates the coal contract coverage rate based on the coal contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant, as well as the power generation of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply cycle and the social power generation growth rate in the next power supply cycle, and conducts different levels of power risk early warning based on the coal contract coverage rate. Compared with the prior art, this invention links the coal-fired power plant contract power generation coverage rate with power dispatch risk, using the coverage rate as an early warning indicator to provide corresponding early warnings to the power dispatching entity, prompting the power entity to adjust coal inventory, power generation, etc., thus meeting practical application needs. Attached Figure Description
[0036] Figure 1 A schematic flowchart of a power risk early warning method based on primary energy provided in an embodiment of the present invention;
[0037] Figure 2 A structural block diagram of a power risk early warning device based on primary energy provided in an embodiment of the present invention;
[0038] Figure 3 This is a structural diagram of a power equipment provided in an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation
[0039] The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.
[0040] It should be noted that the step numbers in this document are only for the convenience of explaining the specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the order in which the steps are executed. The method provided in this embodiment can be executed by a relevant server, and the following description will use a server as the execution subject.
[0041] like Figure 1As shown in the embodiment of the present invention, the power risk early warning method based on primary energy sources includes steps S11 to S13:
[0042] Step S11: Obtain the coal contract quantity of each coal-fired power plant in the current area for the next power supply cycle, and calculate the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle based on the coal contract quantity.
[0043] As mentioned above, due to the vast size of the power dispatching network, it can be divided into multiple regions based on the location of each coal-fired power plant. Simultaneously, the coal contract quantity for each coal-fired power plant within the current region for the next power supply cycle can be obtained, and the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle can be calculated based on the coal contract quantity. The coal contract includes both the quantity and cost of the coal.
[0044] Furthermore, the model for calculating the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle is as follows:
[0045]
[0046] Where, m total,k m represents the total coal contract amount for power plant k. i,k Let n represent the amount of coal supplied by power plant k under contract i, and n represent the number of contracts.
[0047] Step S12: Calculate the contracted power generation of each coal-fired power plant based on the coal consumption of each unit in the coal-fired power plant and the total amount of coal.
[0048] As described above, once the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle is obtained, the contracted power generation of each coal-fired power plant can be calculated based on the coal consumption of each unit in the coal-fired power plant and the total amount of coal.
[0049] Furthermore, the model for calculating the contracted coal power generation of each coal-fired power plant is as follows:
[0050]
[0051]
[0052] Among them, W k w represents the contracted electricity generation capacity of power plant k (coal). k q represents the coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of power generation for power plant k, w represents the standard coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of power generation for the units within power plant k (standard coal refers to coal with a lower calorific value of 7000 kcal / kg), and q represents the standard coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of power generation for power plant k. 7000 q represents the lower heating value of standard coal. used This indicates the lower heating value of the coal used for power generation by the generating units in power plant k.
[0053] Step S13: Calculate the coal contract coverage rate based on the coal contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant, the power generation of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply cycle, and the social power generation growth rate in the next power supply cycle, and conduct different levels of power risk warnings based on the coal contract coverage rate.
[0054] As described above, once the contracted power generation of each coal-fired power plant is obtained, the coal contract coverage rate is calculated based on the contracted power generation of each coal-fired power plant, as well as the power generation of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply cycle and the social power generation growth rate in the next power supply cycle. Different levels of power risk warnings are then issued based on the coal contract coverage rate to prompt power market participants to make adjustments to coal inventory, power generation, and other aspects.
[0055] The model for calculating the approximate coal coverage is as follows:
[0056]
[0057] Where, p k W represents the coal contract volume coverage ratio. k，history Let η represent the power generation of power plant k in the previous power supply cycle, and let η represent the social power generation growth rate in the next power supply cycle.
[0058] Furthermore, the method for obtaining the social electricity consumption growth rate specifically includes:
[0059] Obtain social electricity growth rate data for a preset power supply cycle (e.g., 50 years) and perform a stationarity test.
[0060] Determine whether the data after stationarity testing contains a unit root;
[0061] If so, then re-verify;
[0062] If not, an ARMA model is created based on the data after stationarity verification, and the social electricity growth rate is predicted based on the ARMA model with the selected lag order to obtain the social electricity growth rate.
[0063] The ARMA model is as follows:
[0064]
[0065] Where, η t Let η represent the social electricity consumption growth rate in period t, c represent the constant term, and η represent the total electricity consumption growth rate in period t. t-i This represents the social electricity growth rate lagged by period i. t -j represents the error term with a lag of j periods, also known as a random variable; p represents an autoregressive model of order p; q represents a moving average model of order q; a i b represents the relative coefficient of the social electricity growth rate lagged by period i.j This represents the relative coefficient of the error term with a lag of j periods.
[0066] By changing p and q in the model, AIC information criterion values under different lag orders are obtained and compared. The case with the smallest AIC value is selected as the ARMA model to be used for prediction.
[0067] Furthermore, different levels of power risk warnings are issued based on the coverage rate of the coalfields, specifically including:
[0068] The coverage rate of the coal seam is compared with a preset warning level threshold. A red warning is issued when the coverage rate of the coal seam is the first warning level threshold; a yellow warning is issued when the coverage rate of the coal seam is the second warning level threshold; a white warning is issued when the coverage rate of the coal seam is the third warning level threshold; and a normal situation is when the coverage rate of the coal seam is the third warning level threshold. The first warning level threshold is <70%, the second warning level threshold is ≥70% and <80%, the third warning level threshold is ≥80% and <90%, and the fourth warning level threshold is ≥90%.
[0069] Understandably, this invention sets different warning levels for coverage based on the actual operating conditions of the power system in power dispatch. For example, a coverage rate below 70% is a red warning; a coverage rate between 70% and 80% is a yellow warning; a coverage rate between 80% and 90% is a white warning; and a coverage rate above 90% is considered normal. The warning level thresholds can be adjusted based on historical power plant warning data and empirical values.
[0070] The aforementioned power risk early warning method based on primary energy sources obtains the coal contract quantity of each coal-fired power plant in the current region for the next power supply cycle, and calculates the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle based on the coal contract quantity; calculates the coal contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant based on the power generation coal consumption of each unit in the coal-fired power plant and the total amount of coal; calculates the coal contract coverage rate based on the coal contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant, as well as the power generation of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply cycle and the social power generation growth rate in the next power supply cycle, and conducts different levels of power risk early warning based on the coal contract coverage rate. Compared with the prior art, this invention links the coal-fired power plant contract power generation coverage rate with power dispatch risk, using the coverage rate as an early warning indicator to provide corresponding early warnings to the power dispatching entity, prompting the power entity to adjust coal inventory, power generation, etc., thus meeting practical application needs.
[0071] It should be understood that although the steps in the flowchart above are shown sequentially as indicated by the arrows, these steps are not necessarily executed in the order indicated by the arrows. Unless explicitly stated herein, there is no strict order restriction on the execution of these steps, and they can be executed in other orders. Moreover, at least some steps in the flowchart above may include multiple sub-steps or multiple stages. These sub-steps or stages are not necessarily completed at the same time, but can be executed at different times. The execution order of these sub-steps or stages is not necessarily sequential, but can be performed alternately or in turn with other steps or at least some of the sub-steps or stages of other steps.
[0072] Please see Figure 2 The present invention also provides a power risk early warning device based on primary energy sources, the device comprising:
[0073] The total coal quantity calculation module 21 is used to obtain the coal contract quantity of each coal-fired power plant in the current region for the next power supply cycle, and calculate the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle based on the coal contract quantity.
[0074] The model for calculating the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle is as follows:
[0075]
[0076] Where, m total,k m represents the total coal contract amount for power plant k. i,k Let n represent the amount of coal supplied by power plant k under contract i, and n represent the number of contracts.
[0077] The contract power generation calculation module 22 is used to calculate the contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant based on the power generation coal consumption of each unit in the coal-fired power plant and the total amount of coal.
[0078] The model for calculating the contracted power generation of each coal-fired power plant is as follows:
[0079]
[0080]
[0081] Among them, W k w represents the contracted electricity generation capacity of power plant k (coal). k q represents the coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of power generation for power plant k, w represents the standard coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of power generation for the units within power plant k, and q represents the standard coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of power generation for the units within power plant k. 7000 q represents the lower heating value of standard coal. used This indicates the lower heating value of the coal used for power generation by the generating units in power plant k.
[0082] The contract coverage calculation module 23 is used to calculate the coal contract coverage rate based on the coal contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant, as well as the power generation of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply cycle and the social power generation growth rate in the next power supply cycle, and to conduct different levels of power risk warning based on the coal contract coverage rate.
[0083] The model for calculating the approximate coal coverage is as follows:
[0084]
[0085] Where, p k W represents the coal contract volume coverage ratio. k，history Let η represent the power generation of power plant k in the previous power supply cycle, and let η represent the social power generation growth rate in the next power supply cycle.
[0086] Furthermore, the acquisition of the social electricity generation growth rate specifically includes:
[0087] Obtain the social electricity consumption growth rate data for a preset power supply cycle and perform a stability test.
[0088] Determine whether the data after stationarity testing contains a unit root;
[0089] If so, then re-verify;
[0090] If not, an ARMA model is created based on the data after stationarity verification, and the social electricity growth rate is predicted based on the ARMA model with the selected lag order to obtain the social electricity growth rate.
[0091] Specifically, the ARMA model is as follows:
[0092]
[0093] Where, η t Let η represent the social electricity consumption growth rate in period t, c represent the constant term, and η represent the total electricity consumption growth rate in period t. t-i Let represent the social electricity growth rate with lag i, tj represent the error term with lag j, p represent a p-order autoregressive model, q represent a q-order moving average model, and a i b represents the relative coefficient of the social electricity growth rate lagged by period i. j This represents the relative coefficient of the error term with a lag of j periods.
[0094] Different levels of power risk warnings are issued based on the coverage of the coalfields, specifically including:
[0095] The coverage rate of the coal seam is compared with a preset warning level threshold. A red warning is issued when the coverage rate of the coal seam is the first warning level threshold; a yellow warning is issued when the coverage rate of the coal seam is the second warning level threshold; a white warning is issued when the coverage rate of the coal seam is the third warning level threshold; and a normal situation is when the coverage rate of the coal seam is the third warning level threshold. The first warning level threshold is <70%, the second warning level threshold is ≥70% and <80%, the third warning level threshold is ≥80% and <90%, and the fourth warning level threshold is ≥90%.
[0096] The power risk early warning device based on primary energy provided in this invention obtains the coal contract quantity of each coal-fired power plant in the current region for the next power supply cycle, and calculates the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle based on the coal contract quantity; calculates the coal contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant based on the power generation coal consumption of each unit in the coal-fired power plant and the total amount of coal; calculates the coal contract coverage rate based on the coal contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant, as well as the power generation of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply cycle and the social power generation growth rate in the next power supply cycle, and provides different levels of power risk early warning based on the coal contract coverage rate. Compared with the prior art, this invention links the coal-fired power plant contract power generation coverage rate with power dispatch risk, uses the coverage rate as an early warning indicator, and provides corresponding early warnings to the power dispatching entity, prompting the power entity to adjust coal inventory, power generation, etc., thus meeting practical application needs.
[0097] This invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, which includes a stored computer program; wherein, when the computer program is executed, it controls the device where the computer-readable storage medium is located to perform the power risk early warning method based on primary energy as described above.
[0098] This invention also provides an electrical device, see [link to relevant documentation]. Figure 3 The diagram shown is a structural block diagram of a preferred embodiment of a power device provided by the present invention. The power device includes a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor. When the processor executes the computer program, it implements the power risk early warning method based on primary energy as described above.
[0099] Preferably, the computer program can be divided into one or more modules / units (such as computer program 1, computer program 2, ...), and the one or more modules / units are stored in the memory and executed by the processor to complete the present invention. The one or more modules / units can be a series of computer program instruction segments capable of performing specific functions, and the instruction segments are used to describe the execution process of the computer program in the power equipment.
[0100] The processor can be a central processing unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSPs), application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. The general-purpose processor can be a microprocessor, or the processor can be any conventional processor. The processor is the control center of the power equipment, connecting various parts of the power equipment through various interfaces and lines.
[0101] The memory mainly includes a program storage area and a data storage area. The program storage area can store the operating system, applications required for at least one function, etc., while the data storage area can store related data, etc. Furthermore, the memory can be a high-speed random access memory, or a non-volatile memory, such as a plug-in hard drive, a SmartMedia Card (SMC), a Secure Digital (SD) card, and a Flash Card, or the memory 20 can be other volatile solid-state storage devices.
[0102] It should be noted that the aforementioned power equipment may include, but is not limited to, processors and memory, as will be understood by those skilled in the art. Figure 3 The structural block diagram is merely an example of electrical equipment and does not constitute a limitation on the electrical equipment. It may include more or fewer components than shown, or combine certain components, or use different components.
[0103] In summary, the present invention provides a method, device, storage medium, and power equipment for power risk early warning based on primary energy sources. It obtains the coal contract quantity of each coal-fired power plant in the current region for the next power supply cycle, and calculates the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle based on the coal contract quantity. It also calculates the coal contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant based on the power generation coal consumption of each unit in the coal-fired power plant and the total amount of coal. Furthermore, it calculates the coal contract coverage rate based on the coal contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant, as well as the power generation of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply cycle and the social power generation growth rate in the next power supply cycle, and provides different levels of power risk early warning based on the coal contract coverage rate. Compared with existing technologies, the present invention links the coal-fired power plant contract power generation coverage rate with power dispatch risk, using the coverage rate as an early warning indicator to provide corresponding early warnings to the power dispatching entity, prompting the power entity to adjust coal inventory, power generation, etc., thus meeting practical application needs.
[0104] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be noted that for those skilled in the art, several improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the technical principles of the present invention, and these improvements and modifications should also be considered within the scope of protection of the present invention.
Claims
1. A power risk early warning method based on primary energy sources, characterized in that, The method includes the following steps: Obtain the coal contract quantity of each coal-fired power plant in the current region for the next power supply cycle, and calculate the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle based on the coal contract quantity; The contracted power generation of each coal-fired power plant is calculated based on the coal consumption of each unit in the coal-fired power plant and the total amount of coal. The coal contract coverage rate is calculated based on the coal contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant, as well as the power generation of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply cycle and the social power generation growth rate in the next power supply cycle. Different levels of power risk warnings are then issued based on the coal contract coverage rate. The model for calculating the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle is as follows: in, m total,k express k Total coal contract volume for power plants m i,k express k Power plant i The coal supply under the contract. n Indicates the number of contracts; The model for calculating the contracted power generation of each coal-fired power plant is as follows: in, W k express k The amount of electricity generated by the coal contract for the power plant. w k express k Coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated by a power plant w express k Standard coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of power generation for power plant units. q 7000 This indicates the lower heating value of standard coal. q used express k The lower heating value of coal used for power generation in power plant units; The model for calculating coal contract coverage is as follows: in, p k Indicates coal contract coverage. W k，history express k The amount of electricity generated by the power plant in the previous power supply cycle. η This indicates the growth rate of social electricity consumption in the next power supply cycle; The method for obtaining the social electricity consumption growth rate specifically includes: Obtain the social electricity consumption growth rate data for a preset power supply cycle and perform a stability test. Determine whether the data after stationarity testing contains a unit root; If so, then re-verify; If not, an ARMA model is created based on the data after stationarity verification, and the social electricity growth rate is predicted based on the ARMA model with the selected lag order to obtain the social electricity growth rate. The ARMA model is as follows: in, η t Indicates the first t The growth rate of social electricity consumption during the period c Represents a constant term. Indicates lag The growth rate of social electricity consumption during the period Indicates lag j Error term of period, p To show obedience p Autoregressive model of order, q To show obedience q The moving average model of the order of steps, Indicates lag The relative coefficient of the social electricity growth rate during the period, b j Indicates lag j The relative coefficient of the error term for the period.
2. The power risk early warning method based on primary energy sources according to claim 1, characterized in that, Different levels of power risk warnings are issued based on the coal contract coverage rate, specifically including: The coal contract coverage rate is compared with preset warning level thresholds. A red warning is issued when the coal contract coverage rate is the first warning level threshold; a yellow warning is issued when the coal contract coverage rate is the second warning level threshold; a white warning is issued when the coal contract coverage rate is the third warning level threshold; and a normal situation is when the coal contract coverage rate is the third warning level threshold. The first warning level threshold is <70%, the second warning level threshold is ≥70% and <80%, the third warning level threshold is ≥80% and <90%, and the fourth warning level threshold is ≥90%.
3. A power risk early warning device based on primary energy sources, characterized in that, The device for applying the power risk early warning method based on primary energy sources as described in claim 1 includes: The total coal quantity calculation module is used to obtain the coal contract quantity of each coal-fired power plant in the current region for the next power supply cycle, and calculate the total amount of coal that the coal-fired power plant can provide in the next power supply cycle based on the coal contract quantity. The contract power generation calculation module is used to calculate the contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant based on the power generation coal consumption of each unit in the coal-fired power plant and the total amount of coal. The contract coverage calculation module is used to calculate the coal contract coverage rate based on the coal contract power generation of each coal-fired power plant, as well as the power generation of the coal-fired power plant in the previous power supply cycle and the social power generation growth rate in the next power supply cycle, and to conduct different levels of power risk warnings based on the coal contract coverage rate.
4. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The computer-readable storage medium includes a stored computer program; wherein, when the computer program is executed, it controls the device on which the computer-readable storage medium is located to perform the power risk early warning method based on primary energy as described in any one of claims 1 to 2.
5. An electrical device, characterized in that, The method includes a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, wherein the processor, when executing the computer program, implements the power risk early warning method based on primary energy source as described in any one of claims 1 to 2.