A distribution station control method and system based on digital load forecasting

Abstract

The present invention discloses a distribution station control method and system based on digital load forecasting, which relates to the field of data processing technology. The method includes: obtaining historical power distribution data of N distribution stations in a target area, constructing a power supply network topology map, determining N groups of initial power supply plans, performing power supply load forecasting on them, and obtaining N power supply load forecasting results; obtaining N real-time capacity information of the N distribution stations, comparing them with the N power supply load forecasting results, and obtaining load differences; connecting the distribution stations according to the load differences, obtaining a connection plan for the N distribution stations, reconstructing the power supply network topology map, and controlling the distribution station power supply based on the reconstructed topology map. The present invention solves the technical problem in the prior art of low power supply control efficiency due to the complexity of the distribution station power supply network, and achieves the technical effect of improving power supply control efficiency by optimizing the distribution station power supply network.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of data processing, and in particular to a distribution station control method and system based on digital load forecasting. Background Art

[0002] A distribution station is a point where electricity is delivered to power-consuming devices or users. Located at the end of the power grid, it forms a radial network, connecting to substations above and power-consuming devices below. It typically has a small capacity, with voltage levels below 35 kV. It is primarily used for dispatching, coordinating lines and balancing loads across them. Currently, distribution stations often use a transmission method where a single station connects to multiple load points, resulting in a complex power supply network, complex power supply regulation, and low efficiency. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The present application provides a distribution station control method and system based on digital load forecasting, which is used to solve the technical problem of low power supply control efficiency due to the complexity of the power supply network of the distribution station.

[0004] The first aspect of the present application provides a distribution station control method based on digital load forecasting, the method comprising: obtaining historical power distribution data of N distribution stations in a target area, where N is an integer greater than 1, and constructing a power supply network topology map based on the historical power distribution data; determining N groups of initial power supply plans based on the power supply network topology map, each of the N groups of initial power supply plans including a distribution station and multiple load points; performing power supply load forecasting on the N groups of initial power supply plans to obtain N power supply load forecasting results; obtaining N real-time capacity information of the N distribution stations in the N groups of initial power supply plans; comparing the N power supply load forecasting results with the N real-time capacity information to obtain a load difference, wherein the load difference has a positive and negative sign; performing distribution station power supply connection on the N distribution stations according to the load difference to obtain a distribution station connection plan; reconstructing the power supply network topology map using the distribution station connection plan and the N groups of initial power supply plans to obtain a reconstructed topology map, and performing distribution station power supply control using the reconstructed topology map.

[0005] The second aspect of the present application provides a distribution station control system based on digital load forecasting, the system comprising: a power supply network topology construction module, the power supply network topology construction module is used to obtain historical power distribution data of N distribution stations in the target area, N is an integer greater than 1, and construct a power supply network topology according to the historical power distribution data; an N-group initial power supply plan determination module, the N-group initial power supply plan determination module is used to determine N groups of initial power supply plans based on the power supply network topology, each group of the N groups of initial power supply plans includes a distribution station and multiple load points; a power supply load forecast result acquisition module, the power supply load forecast result acquisition module is used to perform power supply load forecasting on the N groups of initial power supply plans to obtain N power supply load forecast results; a real-time capacity A capacity information acquisition module, the real-time capacity information acquisition module is used to obtain N real-time capacity information of the N distribution stations in the N groups of initial power supply plans; a load difference acquisition module, the load difference acquisition module is used to compare the N power supply load prediction results with the N real-time capacity information, and obtain the load difference, and the load difference has a positive and negative sign; a distribution station connection plan acquisition module, the distribution station connection plan acquisition module is used to connect the N distribution stations to the distribution stations according to the load difference, and obtain the distribution station connection plan; a distribution station power supply control module, the distribution station power supply control module is used to reconstruct the power supply network topology map with the distribution station connection plan and the N groups of initial power supply plans, obtain a reconstructed topology map, and perform distribution station power supply control with the reconstructed topology map.

[0006] One or more technical solutions provided in this application have at least the following technical effects or advantages:

[0007] The present application provides a distribution station control method based on digital load forecasting, which relates to the field of data processing technology. By acquiring historical power distribution data of N distribution stations in a target area, a power supply network topology is constructed, N groups of initial power supply plans are determined, and N power supply load forecast results are obtained; N real-time capacity information of the N distribution stations is acquired, and compared with the N power supply load forecast results to obtain load differences; distribution station power supply connections are made according to the load differences to obtain connection plans for the N distribution stations, and the power supply network topology is reconstructed. The distribution station power supply is controlled by the reconstructed topology, which solves the technical problem in the prior art of low power supply control efficiency due to the complexity of the distribution station power supply network, and achieves the technical effect of improving power supply control efficiency by optimizing the distribution station power supply network. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0008] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative work.

[0009] Figure 1 A schematic flow chart of a distribution station control method based on digital load forecasting provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0010] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of a flow chart for determining N groups of initial power supply plans in a distribution station control method based on digital load forecasting provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0011] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of a flow chart for obtaining N power supply load forecast results in a distribution station control method based on digital load forecasting provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0012] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of the structure of a distribution station control system based on digital load forecasting provided in an embodiment of the present application.

[0013] Explanation of the accompanying drawings: power supply network topology map construction module 11, N group initial power supply planning determination module 12, power supply load forecast result acquisition module 13, real-time capacity information acquisition module 14, load difference acquisition module 15, distribution station connection plan acquisition module 16, distribution station power supply control module 17. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0014] The present application provides a distribution station control method based on digital load forecasting, which is used to solve the technical problem in the prior art of low power supply control efficiency due to the complexity of the power supply network of the distribution station.

[0015] The following will be combined with the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of this application to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application. Obviously, the embodiments described are only some of the embodiments of this application, not all of them. Based on the embodiments in this application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making any creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0016] It should be noted that the terms "first", "second", etc. in the specification and claims of this application and the above-mentioned drawings are used to distinguish similar objects and are not necessarily used to describe a specific order or sequence. It should be understood that the data used in this way can be interchangeable where appropriate, so that the embodiments of the application described herein can be implemented in an order other than those illustrated or described herein. In addition, the terms "including" and "having" and any variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions. For example, a process, method, system, product, or server that includes a series of steps or units is not necessarily limited to those steps or units clearly listed, but may include other steps or modules that are not clearly listed or inherent to these processes, methods, products, or devices.

[0017] Example 1

[0018] like Figure 1 As shown, the present application provides a distribution station control method based on digital load forecasting, the method comprising:

[0019] S100: Acquire historical power distribution data of N power distribution stations in a target area, where N is an integer greater than 1, and construct a power supply network topology map based on the historical power distribution data;

[0020] Specifically, by consulting the power distribution records of N distribution stations within the target area, the power distribution data for the N distribution stations within the target area over the past period of time (which can be three months, six months, or a year, etc., and the specific time period can be adaptively adjusted based on actual conditions) is extracted, including power supply load, power supply frequency, etc. N is an integer greater than 1, indicating that the number of distribution stations is one or more. Based on the connection relationship between the N distribution stations and the distribution terminals in the historical power distribution data, as well as the power supply and distribution status of the N distribution stations to the distribution terminals, a power supply network topology diagram is constructed, which can serve as basic data for subsequent power supply planning.

[0021] Furthermore, step S100 in the embodiment of the present application further includes:

[0022] S110: extracting a plurality of load points within the target area from the historical power distribution data;

[0023] S120: Based on the historical power distribution data, extract a first distribution station from the N distribution stations, and establish a first mapping relationship between the first distribution station and the multiple load points;

[0024] S130: Based on the first mapping relationship, obtain power supply frequency information of the first distribution station to the multiple load points respectively;

[0025] S140: Based on the first mapping relationship, the power supply network topology is constructed with distribution stations and load points as network nodes, and the power supply frequency information is marked on the power supply network topology, wherein one load point can simultaneously identify the power supply frequency of one or more distribution stations.

[0026] Specifically, multiple load points in the target area are extracted from the historical power distribution data. The load point refers to the electricity consumption end. There are multiple electricity consumption ends in the target area, and they are respectively supplied and distributed by the N distribution stations. Based on the historical power distribution data, the N distribution stations are taken as the first distribution station. According to the principle that one distribution station supplies power to multiple load points and one load point may be supplied by multiple distribution stations, the power supply and distribution relationship between the N distribution stations in the first distribution station and each of the multiple load points in the past period of time is found. This is used as the first mapping relationship. Based on the first mapping relationship, the power supply frequency information of each distribution station in the first distribution station to the multiple load points is extracted respectively. The power supply frequency information refers to the power supply frequency of the distribution station to the load point in the past period of time. With the first mapping relationship as the communication medium and the distribution station and the load point as the network nodes, the power supply network topology diagram is constructed. The network topology diagram refers to a network structure diagram composed of network node devices and communication media. The power supply frequency information is marked on each load point in the power supply network topology. For example, a load point can simultaneously identify the power supply frequency of one or more distribution stations. The specific identification result is determined based on the actual power supply and distribution situation over a period of time. The power supply network topology reflects the power supply and distribution relationship between the N distribution stations and the multiple load points, and can serve as basic data for subsequent power supply planning.

[0027] S200: Determine N groups of initial power supply plans based on the power supply network topology, each of the N groups of initial power supply plans including a power distribution station and multiple load points;

[0028] Specifically, based on the power supply network topology, the power supply relationship between each of the N distribution stations and its corresponding multiple load points is extracted respectively, and by comparing the power supply frequency of each distribution station to each load point, the load points that are fixedly supplied by each distribution station are screened out, that is, the load points that are fixedly supplied for each distribution station in the past power supply plan, that is, N groups of initial power supply plans are determined. The N groups of initial power supply plans include N groups of initial power supply plans for N distribution stations, so each group of initial power supply plans includes one distribution station and multiple load points. The N groups of initial power supply plans can be used for subsequent power supply load forecasting.

[0029] Further, such as Figure 2 As shown, step S200 in this embodiment of the application further includes:

[0030] S210: Setting power supply frequency constraint information;

[0031] S220: Extracting the power supply frequencies of the multiple load points corresponding to the first distribution station based on the power supply network topology map;

[0032] S230: Using the power supply frequency constraint information as a constraint condition, screening the multiple load points based on the power supply frequency to obtain an initial planned load point;

[0033] S240: Forming a group of initial power supply plans with the first distribution station and the initial planned load points to obtain the N groups of initial power supply plans.

[0034] Specifically, based on the power supply frequency data of each distribution station for the multiple load points in the historical power distribution data, a higher power supply frequency is selected as the power supply frequency constraint information, that is, the power supply frequency threshold. The power supply frequency constraint information is used to screen out the distribution stations and load points that are fixedly matched for power supply in the power supply network topology diagram. For example, a distribution station supplies power to load point A 30 times, to load point B 35 times, and to load point C 2 times in a month, indicating that the distribution station provides fixed power supply to load points A and B, and temporary power supply to load point C. The power supply frequency constraint information is set to 30, and the power supply frequency of the multiple load points corresponding to each distribution station in the first distribution station is extracted from the power supply network topology diagram. With the power supply frequency constraint information as a constraint condition, the power supply frequency of the multiple load points is screened, and the load points whose power supply frequencies are greater than or equal to the power supply frequency constraint information are retained as the initial planned load points. The initial planned load points are the load points that are fixedly matched for power supply by each distribution station in the power supply planning scheme used in the past. The power supply relationship between the N distribution stations in the first distribution station and the corresponding initial planned load points is found to serve as the initial power supply plan. The initial power supply plan is the power supply planning scheme used in the past. The N distribution stations have N groups of initial power supply plans. These N groups of initial power supply plans can be used for subsequent power supply load forecasting.

[0035] S300: Perform power supply load forecasting on the N groups of initial power supply plans to obtain N power supply load forecasting results;

[0036] Specifically, based on the historical power distribution data of the N groups of initial power supply plans, the power supply rules of the N distribution stations under the N groups of initial power supply plans are calculated. Based on the power supply rules, the power supply load values ​​that the N distribution stations need to provide in the future period are predicted. This is used as the N power supply load prediction results, which can be used as the basic data for subsequent load difference calculations.

[0037] Further, such as Figure 3 As shown, step S300 in this embodiment of the application further includes:

[0038] S310: Based on the historical power distribution data, obtain first historical load output data of the first distribution station of the N groups of initial power supply plans;

[0039] S320: Obtaining a preset cycle;

[0040] S330: Using the preset period as a calculation node, calculate the load output coefficient of the first distribution station according to the first historical load output data to obtain a first load output coefficient;

[0041] S340: Perform power supply load prediction according to the first load output coefficient to obtain the N power supply load prediction results.

[0042] Specifically, the historical load output data of each distribution station in the N groups of initial power supply plans is extracted from the historical power distribution data, that is, the power output data of each distribution station in the past period of time. A future power supply cycle is preset, which can be one day, one month, etc. The specific time can be adaptively adjusted according to actual conditions. The preset cycle is used as a calculation node, and the load output change pattern of the first distribution station within the calculation node is found. Based on the change pattern, the first load output coefficient calculation formula is constructed: Among them, η k Characterize the first load output factor, P i Characterizes the output load of the first distribution station in the i-th cycle, P max The first load output coefficient, which is a correction coefficient for the first load data, can be used to calculate the load output data within the preset period. The first load output coefficient for each distribution station is multiplied by the corresponding first historical load output data to obtain a power supply load forecast result for each distribution station within the preset period, i.e., N power supply load forecast results, which can serve as basic data for subsequent load difference calculations.

[0043] Furthermore, step S340 in the embodiment of the present application further includes:

[0044] S341: Performing a change stability analysis on the plurality of first load output coefficients to obtain a stability index;

[0045] S342: If the stability index meets the stability requirement threshold, use the average of the plurality of first load output coefficients as the target load output coefficient;

[0046] S343: If the stability index does not meet the stability requirement threshold, performing a change trend analysis on the plurality of first load output coefficients to obtain an index change trend;

[0047] S344: Predicting the target load output coefficient according to the index change trend;

[0048] S345: According to the target load output coefficient, power supply load prediction is performed for the target period to obtain the N power supply load prediction results.

[0049] Specifically, the changing patterns of the multiple first load output coefficients over the past period of time are analyzed, including the frequency of change, the amplitude of change, etc., and the stability of the change of the first load output coefficient is determined based on the changing patterns, and a corresponding stability index is set. For example, the lower the frequency of change and the smaller the amplitude of change, the higher the stability of the change of the first load output coefficient, and the higher the corresponding stability index. A stability requirement threshold is set based on the changing patterns of the multiple first load output coefficients. When the stability index meets the stability requirement threshold, it means that the current frequency of change and the amplitude of change of the multiple first load output coefficients are both small. The average value of the multiple first load output coefficients can be taken as the target load output coefficient. When the stability index does not meet the stability requirement threshold, it is necessary to analyze the changing trends of the multiple first load output coefficients and find the changing pattern function of the multiple first load output coefficients. This is used as the index changing trend to calculate the target load output coefficient. Based on the above two situations, the target load output coefficient within the target period is calculated. The target load output coefficient is multiplied by the corresponding first historical load output data to obtain the power supply load forecast result of the N distribution stations within the target period, which can be used as the basic data for subsequent load difference calculation.

[0050] Furthermore, step S341 of the embodiment of the present application further includes:

[0051] S341-1: Performing numerical change analysis on the plurality of first load output coefficients to obtain a plurality of unit growth amplitudes and a plurality of unit change frequencies;

[0052] S341-2: Calculate variances of the multiple unit growth rates and the multiple unit change frequencies respectively to obtain a first variance and a second variance;

[0053] S341-3: Perform weighted calculation on the first variance and the second variance to obtain the stability index.

[0054] Specifically, the numerical variation patterns of the multiple first load output coefficients are sorted out in sequence, for example, the unit growth amplitude and unit change frequency of each first load output coefficient within a preset period are extracted to obtain multiple unit growth amplitudes and multiple unit change frequencies, and variance calculations are performed on the multiple unit growth amplitudes and the multiple unit change frequencies respectively to obtain the first variance of the multiple unit growth amplitudes and the second variance of the multiple unit change frequencies. According to the degree of influence of the growth amplitude and the change frequency on the data stability, corresponding weight coefficients are assigned to the first variance and the second variance, and the first variance and the second variance are weightedly calculated based on the weight coefficient. The obtained weighted average value is used as the stability index, which can be used to determine the calculation method of the first load output coefficient. The calculation method of the stability index can also be obtained by performing standard deviation calculation on the multiple unit growth amplitudes and the multiple unit change frequencies, and is not limited to being obtained by using variance calculation.

[0055] S400: Acquire N real-time capacity information of N distribution stations in the N groups of initial power supply plans;

[0056] Specifically, an electricity monitoring device is installed for each distribution station in the target area. The electricity monitoring device is connected to the distribution station control system and can monitor the remaining electricity of each distribution station in real time. By querying the electricity monitoring information, the current electricity of the N distribution stations in the N groups of initial power supply plans is extracted, and this is used as N real-time capacity information, which can be used as basic data for subsequent load difference calculation.

[0057] S500: Compare the N power supply load prediction results with the N real-time capacity information to obtain a load difference, where the load difference has a positive or negative sign;

[0058] Specifically, the N power supply load prediction results within a preset period are compared with the current N real-time capacity information, that is, the predicted power supply of each distribution station is compared with the current remaining power, and the difference between the predicted power supply and the current remaining power is calculated, that is, the power load difference. Since there may be two situations where the remaining power is greater than the predicted power supply and the remaining power is less than the predicted power supply, the load difference has positive and negative identifiers. The load difference where the remaining power is greater than the predicted power supply is marked as a positive difference, and the load difference where the remaining power is less than the predicted power supply is marked as a negative difference. The load difference can be used as reference data for subsequent power supply control.

[0059] S600: Connect the N distribution stations to power supplies according to the load difference, and obtain a distribution station connection plan;

[0060] Furthermore, step S600 in the embodiment of the present application further includes:

[0061] S610: Extracting M distribution stations from the N distribution stations whose absolute values ​​of the load differences are greater than a preset threshold, and classifying the M distribution stations according to the positive and negative identifiers to obtain a classification result, where M is less than or equal to N;

[0062] S620: According to the classification result, obtain a group of distribution stations with opposite difference directions and the same absolute value of the load difference, each distribution station group including a first positive difference distribution station and a first negative difference distribution station;

[0063] S630: Establishing a first electric energy transmission line between the first positive difference distribution station and the first negative difference distribution station;

[0064] S640: Use the first electric energy transmission line as a distribution station connection solution.

[0065] Specifically, based on the numerical range of the load difference, a load difference threshold is preset to screen out distribution stations requiring power regulation. For example, when the load difference of a distribution station is 0 or a very small positive value, the distribution station has no excess load available, does not require additional power, and therefore power regulation is not required. Distribution stations are extracted from the N distribution stations whose absolute values ​​of the load differences are greater than the preset threshold. Here, it is assumed that M distribution stations meeting the criteria are extracted. Based on the positive and negative identifiers of each distribution station, the M distribution stations are divided into positive-difference distribution stations and negative-difference distribution stations, using this as a classification result. From the classification results, several distribution stations with opposite load difference directions and the same absolute load difference values ​​are extracted as a distribution station group. Each distribution station group includes a first positive-difference distribution station and a first negative-difference distribution station. The first positive-difference distribution station and the first negative-difference distribution station can each include one or more distribution stations with the same load difference direction, provided that the sum of the positive and negative load difference differences is consistent. According to the power regulation situation of each distribution station group, a transmission line is established between the distribution stations that need to exchange power in the first positive difference distribution station and the first negative difference distribution station. This is used as the first power transmission line. The first power transmission line is used as the connection scheme for the distribution stations in the target area, which can be used as the basic data for the subsequent reconstruction of the power supply network topology diagram.

[0066] S700: Reconstruct the power supply network topology using the distribution station connection scheme and the N groups of initial power supply plans to obtain a reconstructed topology, and perform power supply control of the distribution station using the reconstructed topology.

[0067] Specifically, the transmission lines of each distribution station in the distribution station connection scheme and the connection relationship between the N distribution stations and the corresponding load points in the N groups of initial power supply plans are used as communication media, and the N distribution stations and load points are used as network nodes to reconstruct the power supply network topology diagram, which is used as the reconstructed topology diagram. The reconstructed topology diagram is used to control the power supply of the distribution station, which can optimize the power supply control network and improve the power supply control efficiency.

[0068] In summary, the embodiments of the present application have at least the following technical effects:

[0069] This application obtains historical power distribution data of N distribution stations in the target area, constructs a power supply network topology map, determines N groups of initial power supply plans, and obtains N power supply load forecast results; obtains N real-time capacity information of N distribution stations, compares them with the N power supply load forecast results, and obtains load differences; connects the distribution station power supply according to the load differences, obtains the connection plan of N distribution stations, reconstructs the power supply network topology map, and uses the reconstructed topology map to control the power supply of the distribution station.

[0070] The technical effect of improving power supply control efficiency by optimizing the power supply network of distribution stations has been achieved.

[0071] Example 2

[0072] Based on the same inventive concept as the distribution station control method based on digital load forecasting in the above embodiment, Figure 4 As shown, the present application provides a distribution station control system based on digital load forecasting. The system and method embodiments in the present application are based on the same inventive concept. The system includes:

[0073] A power supply network topology map construction module 11 is configured to obtain historical power distribution data of N power distribution stations within a target area, where N is an integer greater than 1, and construct a power supply network topology map based on the historical power distribution data;

[0074] N groups of initial power supply plans determining module 12, the N groups of initial power supply plans determining module is used to determine N groups of initial power supply plans based on the power supply network topology diagram, each of the N groups of initial power supply plans including a distribution station and multiple load points;

[0075] A power supply load forecast result obtaining module 13 is used to perform power supply load forecasting on the N groups of initial power supply plans to obtain N power supply load forecast results;

[0076] A real-time capacity information acquisition module 14, configured to acquire N real-time capacity information of the N distribution stations in the N groups of initial power supply plans;

[0077] A load difference acquisition module 15 is configured to compare the N power supply load prediction results with the N real-time capacity information to obtain a load difference, wherein the load difference has a positive or negative identifier;

[0078] a distribution station connection plan acquisition module 16, configured to connect the N distribution stations to each other according to the load difference and acquire a distribution station connection plan;

[0079] The distribution station power supply control module 17 is used to reconstruct the power supply network topology using the distribution station connection scheme and the N groups of initial power supply plans to obtain a reconstructed topology, and perform distribution station power supply control using the reconstructed topology.

[0080] Furthermore, the system further comprises:

[0081] A load point extraction module, configured to extract a plurality of load points within the target area from the historical power distribution data;

[0082] a first mapping relationship establishing module, configured to extract a first distribution station from the N distribution stations based on the historical power distribution data, and establish a first mapping relationship between the first distribution station and the plurality of load points;

[0083] a power supply frequency information acquisition module, configured to acquire power supply frequency information provided by the first distribution station to the plurality of load points based on the first mapping relationship;

[0084] A power supply network topology map construction module is used to construct the power supply network topology map based on the first mapping relationship, with distribution stations and load points as network nodes, and mark the power supply frequency information to the power supply network topology map, wherein a load point can simultaneously identify the power supply frequency of one or more distribution stations.

[0085] Furthermore, the system further comprises:

[0086] A power supply frequency constraint information setting module, the power supply frequency constraint information setting module is used to set power supply frequency constraint information;

[0087] A power supply frequency extraction module, configured to extract the power supply frequencies of the plurality of load points corresponding to the first distribution station based on the power supply network topology;

[0088] An initial planned load point acquisition module, the initial planned load point acquisition module being configured to use the power supply frequency constraint information as a constraint condition, screen the multiple load points based on the power supply frequency, and obtain an initial planned load point;

[0089] An initial power supply plan obtaining module is used to form a group of initial power supply plans with the first distribution station and the initial planned load points to obtain the N groups of initial power supply plans.

[0090] Furthermore, the system further comprises:

[0091] a first historical load output data acquisition module, configured to acquire, based on the historical power distribution data, first historical load output data of the first distribution station of the N groups of initial power supply plans;

[0092] A preset period acquisition module, wherein the preset period acquisition module is used to acquire a preset period;

[0093] a first load output coefficient obtaining module, configured to calculate the load output coefficient of the first distribution station based on the first historical load output data, using the preset period as a calculation node, to obtain a first load output coefficient;

[0094] A power supply load prediction result obtaining module is used to perform power supply load prediction according to the first load output coefficient to obtain the N power supply load prediction results.

[0095] Furthermore, the system further comprises:

[0096] a stability index obtaining module, configured to perform a stability analysis on a plurality of the first load output coefficients to obtain a stability index;

[0097] a first target load output coefficient obtaining module, configured to use an average value of a plurality of first load output coefficients as a target load output coefficient if the stability index meets a stability requirement threshold;

[0098] a change trend analysis module, configured to perform a change trend analysis on a plurality of first load output coefficients to obtain an index change trend if the stability index does not meet a stability requirement threshold;

[0099] a second target load output coefficient acquisition module, the second target load output coefficient acquisition module being used to predict the target load output coefficient according to the exponential change trend;

[0100] The power supply load prediction result acquisition module is used to perform power supply load prediction on the target period according to the target load output coefficient to obtain the N power supply load prediction results.

[0101] Furthermore, the system further comprises:

[0102] a numerical change analysis module, configured to perform numerical change analysis on a plurality of the first load output coefficients to obtain a plurality of unit growth amplitudes and a plurality of unit change frequencies;

[0103] a variance calculation module, configured to perform variance calculations on the plurality of unit growth rates and the plurality of unit change frequencies, respectively, to obtain a first variance and a second variance;

[0104] A weighted calculation module is used to perform weighted calculation on the first variance and the second variance to obtain the stability index.

[0105] Furthermore, the system further comprises:

[0106] A distribution station classification module, the distribution station classification module is used to extract M distribution stations whose absolute values ​​of the load differences are greater than a preset threshold value from the N distribution stations, and classify the M distribution stations according to the positive and negative identifiers to obtain a classification result, where M is less than or equal to N;

[0107] A distribution station group acquisition module, the distribution station group acquisition module is used to acquire, based on the classification result, a distribution station group having opposite difference directions and the same absolute value of the load difference, each distribution station group including a first positive difference distribution station and a first negative difference distribution station;

[0108] a first electric energy transmission line establishing module, the first electric energy transmission line establishing module being used to establish a first electric energy transmission line between the first positive difference distribution station and the first negative difference distribution station;

[0109] A distribution station connection scheme determining module is configured to use the first electric energy transmission line as a distribution station connection scheme.

[0110] It should be noted that the above-mentioned order of the embodiments of the present application is for descriptive purposes only and does not represent the superiority or inferiority of the embodiments. The above description is of specific embodiments of this specification. Other embodiments are within the scope of the appended claims. In some cases, the actions or steps described in the claims can be performed in an order different from that in the embodiments and still achieve the desired results. In addition, the processes depicted in the accompanying drawings do not necessarily require the specific order or continuous order shown to achieve the desired results. In some embodiments, multitasking and parallel processing are also possible or may be advantageous.

[0111] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present application and is not intended to limit the present application. Any modifications, equivalent replacements, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present application should be included in the scope of protection of the present application.

[0112] This specification and drawings are merely illustrative of the present application and are intended to cover any and all modifications, variations, combinations, or equivalents within the scope of this application. Obviously, those skilled in the art may make various modifications and variations to this application without departing from the scope of this application. Thus, this application is intended to include such modifications and variations as fall within the scope of this application and its equivalents.

Claims

1. A distribution station control method based on digital load forecasting, characterized in that: The method comprises: Obtain historical power distribution data of N power distribution stations in the target area, where N is an integer greater than 1, and construct a power supply network topology map based on the historical power distribution data; Determine N groups of initial power supply plans based on the power supply network topology, each of the N groups of initial power supply plans including a distribution station and multiple load points; Performing power supply load forecasting on the N groups of initial power supply plans to obtain N power supply load forecasting results; Obtaining N real-time capacity information of N distribution stations in the N groups of initial power supply plans; Comparing the N power supply load prediction results with the N real-time capacity information to obtain a load difference, where the load difference has a positive and negative sign; Connecting the N distribution stations to power supplies according to the load difference to obtain a distribution station connection plan; Reconstructing the power supply network topology using the distribution station connection scheme and the N groups of initial power supply plans to obtain a reconstructed topology, and controlling power supply at the distribution station using the reconstructed topology; The performing power supply load forecasting on the N groups of initial power supply plans to obtain N power supply load forecasting results includes: Based on the historical power distribution data, obtaining first historical load output data of the first distribution station of the N groups of initial power supply plans; Get the preset period; Taking the preset period as a calculation node, calculating the load output coefficient of the first distribution station according to the first historical load output data to obtain a first load output coefficient; Performing power supply load forecasting according to the first load output coefficient to obtain the N power supply load forecasting results includes: Performing a change stability analysis on the plurality of first load output coefficients to obtain a stability index; If the stability index meets the stability requirement threshold, taking an average of the plurality of first load output coefficients as a target load output coefficient; If the stability index does not meet the stability requirement threshold, performing a change trend analysis on a plurality of the first load output coefficients to obtain an index change trend; Predicting the target load output coefficient according to the index change trend; According to the target load output coefficient, power supply load prediction is performed on the target period to obtain the N power supply load prediction results.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein The step of constructing a power supply network topology diagram based on the historical power distribution data includes: extracting a plurality of load points within the target area from the historical power distribution data; Based on the historical power distribution data, extracting a first distribution station from the N distribution stations, and establishing a first mapping relationship between the first distribution station and the plurality of load points; Based on the first mapping relationship, obtaining power supply frequency information of the first distribution station to the multiple load points respectively; Based on the first mapping relationship, the power supply network topology diagram is constructed with distribution stations and load points as network nodes, and the power supply frequency information is marked on the power supply network topology diagram, wherein a load point can simultaneously identify the power supply frequency of one or more distribution stations.

3. The method according to claim 2, wherein The determining of N groups of initial power supply plans based on the power supply network topology diagram includes: Set power supply frequency constraint information; Extracting the power supply frequencies of the plurality of load points corresponding to the first distribution station based on the power supply network topology diagram; Taking the power supply frequency constraint information as a constraint condition, screening the multiple load points based on the power supply frequency to obtain an initial planned load point; The first distribution station and the initial planned load point form a group of initial power supply plans to obtain the N groups of initial power supply plans.

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein The performing a change stability analysis on the plurality of first load output coefficients to obtain a stability index includes: Performing numerical change analysis on the plurality of first load output coefficients to obtain a plurality of unit growth amplitudes and a plurality of unit change frequencies; Performing variance calculation on the multiple unit growth rates and the multiple unit change frequencies respectively to obtain a first variance and a second variance; Perform weighted calculation on the first variance and the second variance to obtain the stability index.

5. The method according to claim 1, wherein Connecting the N distribution stations with power supplies according to the load difference to obtain a distribution station connection plan includes: Extracting M distribution stations from the N distribution stations whose absolute values ​​of the load differences are greater than a preset threshold, and classifying the M distribution stations according to the positive and negative identifiers to obtain a classification result, where M is less than or equal to N; According to the classification result, a distribution station group having opposite difference directions and the same absolute value of the load difference is obtained, each distribution station group including a first positive difference distribution station and a first negative difference distribution station; Establishing a first electric energy transmission line between the first positive differential distribution station and the first negative differential distribution station; The first electric energy transmission line is used as a distribution station connection solution.

6. A distribution station control system based on digital load forecasting, characterized in that: The system comprises: A power supply network topology map construction module, the power supply network topology map construction module is used to obtain historical power distribution data of N power distribution stations in the target area, where N is an integer greater than 1, and construct a power supply network topology map based on the historical power distribution data; N groups of initial power supply plan determination modules, the N groups of initial power supply plan determination modules are used to determine N groups of initial power supply plans based on the power supply network topology diagram, each of the N groups of initial power supply plans including a distribution station and multiple load points; A power supply load forecast result obtaining module, wherein the power supply load forecast result obtaining module is used to perform power supply load forecasting on the N groups of initial power supply plans to obtain N power supply load forecast results; A real-time capacity information acquisition module, configured to acquire N real-time capacity information of the N distribution stations in the N groups of initial power supply plans; A load difference acquisition module, configured to compare the N power supply load prediction results with the N real-time capacity information to obtain a load difference, wherein the load difference has a positive or negative identifier; A distribution station connection plan acquisition module, the distribution station connection plan acquisition module is used to connect the N distribution stations to power supply according to the load difference and obtain a distribution station connection plan; A distribution station power supply control module, the distribution station power supply control module is used to reconstruct the power supply network topology map based on the distribution station connection scheme and the N groups of initial power supply plans to obtain a reconstructed topology map, and perform distribution station power supply control based on the reconstructed topology map; Furthermore, the system further comprises: a first historical load output data acquisition module, configured to acquire first historical load output data of the first distribution station of the N groups of initial power supply plans based on the historical power distribution data; A preset period acquisition module, wherein the preset period acquisition module is used to acquire a preset period; a first load output coefficient obtaining module, configured to calculate the load output coefficient of the first distribution station based on the first historical load output data, using the preset period as a calculation node, to obtain a first load output coefficient; A power supply load prediction result obtaining module, configured to perform power supply load prediction according to the first load output coefficient to obtain the N power supply load prediction results; a stability index obtaining module, configured to perform a stability analysis on a plurality of the first load output coefficients to obtain a stability index; a first target load output coefficient obtaining module, configured to use an average value of a plurality of first load output coefficients as a target load output coefficient if the stability index meets a stability requirement threshold; a change trend analysis module, configured to perform a change trend analysis on a plurality of first load output coefficients to obtain an index change trend if the stability index does not meet a stability requirement threshold; a second target load output coefficient acquisition module, the second target load output coefficient acquisition module being used to predict the target load output coefficient according to the exponential change trend; The power supply load prediction result acquisition module is used to perform power supply load prediction on the target period according to the target load output coefficient to obtain the N power supply load prediction results.

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