A method and device for predicting the installed capacity demand of new energy hydrogen production electrolyzers

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method and device for predicting the installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer. The method includes: determining a new energy installed capacity plan for a target year of a power grid to be tested, and determining the output curve of a new energy station in the target year under different new energy output composition scenarios based on the installed capacity plan; performing a power and electricity analysis on the power grid to be tested based on a pre-constructed power and electricity balance analysis data model and the output curve, and determining the peak-shaving demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested; performing a power system safety and stability analysis based on a pre-constructed power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model, and determining the new energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment under stability constraints; and determining the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested based on the power grid peak-shaving demand, new energy consumption demand, and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of new energy hydrogen production, and more specifically, to a method and device for predicting the installed capacity demand of new energy hydrogen production electrolyzers. Background Art

[0002] As an important part of the new energy system, hydrogen energy will give full play to its advantages of long regulation cycle and large energy storage capacity, carry out demonstrations of hydrogen energy storage in application scenarios such as renewable energy consumption and grid peak regulation, explore and cultivate a new integrated application model of "wind and solar power generation + hydrogen energy storage", and gradually form an electric power system energy storage system that integrates various energy storage technologies such as pumped storage, electrochemical energy storage, and hydrogen energy storage.

[0003] The application value of hydrogen energy storage on the power supply side is mainly reflected in reducing power curtailment, smoothing fluctuations and tracking output. The application value on the grid side is mainly reflected in providing peak-shaving capacity for grid operation and alleviating congestion of transmission and transformation lines. The application value on the load side is mainly reflected in participating in power demand response, realizing electricity price arbitrage and serving as an emergency backup power supply.

[0004] In terms of renewable energy consumption, curtailment of solar and wind power, a persistent problem in the power system, is a result of the inherent volatility of renewable energy sources like photovoltaics and wind power. Using broadly defined hydrogen energy storage to convert unconnected electricity into green hydrogen on-site, not only addresses this renewable energy consumption challenge but also provides clean, affordable hydrogen for local industries, transportation, and construction, extending the green industrial chain.

[0005] Currently, domestic and international research institutions, universities, and enterprises have conducted extensive research on the fundamental principles and technical characteristics of key technologies for hydrogen coupling in power systems. However, much of the focus has been on hydrogen production from water electrolysis and hydrogen storage and transportation. Preliminary analysis of power system applications has been conducted from the perspectives of simulation models and control strategies. However, research on the demand for electrolyzer capacity to achieve renewable energy consumption and power peak regulation has not yet been conducted, and there are no publicly available methods for predicting electrolyzer capacity demand. This area of ​​technology remains a blank. Summary of the Invention

[0006] In view of the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a method and device for predicting the installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer.

[0007] According to one aspect of the present invention, a method for predicting the installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer is provided, comprising:

[0008] Determine the target year's renewable energy capacity plan for the grid to be tested, and determine the target year's output curves for renewable energy stations under different renewable energy output composition scenarios based on the capacity plan;

[0009] Conduct power analysis on the power grid to be tested based on the pre-built power balance analysis data model and output curve to determine the peak load regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested;

[0010] Conduct power system security and stability analysis based on pre-built power system security and stability simulation analysis data models, determine the maximum output of renewable energy accepted by the power grid under test, and the cumulative value of renewable energy output adjustment under stability constraints;

[0011] According to the peak-shaving demand of the power grid, the demand for new energy consumption and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment, the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under the multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested is determined.

[0012] Optionally, the new energy installed capacity planning includes: site selection for wind power and photovoltaic power stations, total installed capacity of power stations, capacity of single units, planned grid connection points, wind farm wind resource assessment data, and photovoltaic power station solar resource assessment data.

[0013] Optionally, the output curve of the new energy station in the target year under different new energy output composition scenarios is determined based on the installed capacity plan, including:

[0014] Based on the installed capacity planning, different new energy output combination scenarios are formed according to high wind power output, low wind power output, zero wind power output and high photovoltaic output, low photovoltaic output, and zero photovoltaic output;

[0015] Predict the output curve of new energy stations for 8760 hours throughout the year under different new energy output combination scenarios.

[0016] Optionally, a power analysis is performed on the power grid to be tested based on a pre-built power balance analysis data model and output curve to determine the peak load regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested, including:

[0017] Step 1: Input the output curve into the power balance analysis data model to adjust the renewable energy output data in the power system power balance analysis under different scenarios;

[0018] Step 2: Based on the power supply structure and load characteristics of the power grid under test, taking into account the system reserve rate, coal-fired power obstruction rate, water supply in the target year, and the capacity and head of each reservoir, conduct a power and energy balance production simulation for the power grid under test in the target year. Determine the power and energy balance analysis results under multiple power output scenarios of the power grid under test. The power and energy balance analysis results include: power balance surplus and energy balance surplus;

[0019] Step 3: Determine the results of the power balance analysis. If the system has a surplus of renewable energy power or power, record the power surplus P of the power grid under test under the power balance requirement. B1_RES and power surplus Q B1_RES , Power shortage PB2_RES And power shortage Q B2_RES , and output the peak load demand of the power grid;

[0020] Step 4: Calculate the new energy consumption rate μ. When the new energy consumption rate is less than the specified target value, output the new energy consumption demand. The calculation formula of the new energy consumption rate μ is:

[0021] μ=Q 用电_RES / Q 装机_RES

[0022] Where Q 用电_RES and Q 装机_RES They represent the actual power generation and theoretical power generation of new energy respectively.

[0023] Optionally, a power system security and stability analysis is performed based on a pre-built power system security and stability simulation analysis data model to determine the renewable energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the renewable energy output adjustment under stability constraints, including:

[0024] Step 1: In the power system security and stability simulation analysis data model to be tested, establish or modify the power system security and stability simulation analysis data model under different renewable energy output scenarios based on the power balance situation;

[0025] Step 2: Conduct a safety and stability analysis of the target year for the power grid under test based on the revised power system simulation analysis data model and determine the safety and stability analysis results. The safety and stability analysis includes reactive voltage, short-circuit current, static safety, static stability, transient stability, dynamic stability, voltage stability, and frequency stability analysis.

[0026] Step 3: Determine the safety and stability analysis results. If the power grid under test is unstable, determine whether the cause of the instability is an unreasonable proportion of renewable energy output. If so, proceed to step 4; otherwise, proceed to step 5. If the power grid is stable, proceed to step 6.

[0027] Step 4: Go to step 1 to adjust the proportion of renewable energy output in the power grid and record the cumulative value of renewable energy output adjustment ΔP RES ;

[0028] Step 5: Correct the grid operation mode or adjust the simulation analysis model parameters of the components that cause instability in the grid to form a new simulation analysis data model and proceed to step 1;

[0029] Step 6: Record and output the renewable energy output value, renewable energy output ratio, and cumulative value ΔP of renewable energy output adjustment that meet the requirements for safe and stable operation of the power grid. RES ;

[0030] Step 7: If ΔP RES>0, then redetermine the power balance.

[0031] Optionally, based on the peak regulation demand of the power grid, the demand for new energy consumption, and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment, a forecast value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested is determined, including:

[0032] Step 1: In the case of power balance, if the grid under test has no power or power surplus or shortage, then output the electrolyzer demand P ET =0, if there is a surplus, go to step 2; if there is a deficit, go to step 3;

[0033] Step 2: Based on the power surplus P B1_RES Or power surplus Q B1_RES Calculate the minimum value P of the electrolyzer power demand under surplus conditions ET1_Q and the maximum value P ET1_P , and its calculation formula is:

[0034] P ET1_Q =(μ0Q 装机_RES -Q B1_RES ) / T 氢

[0035] P ET1_P =P B1_RES

[0036] In the formula, μ0 represents the new energy consumption target, T 氢 Indicates the annual operating hours of new energy hydrogen production;

[0037] Step 3: According to the power shortage P B2_RES Or power shortage Q B2_RES Calculate the minimum value P of the electrolytic cell power demand for peak load regulation under power shortage conditions ET2_Q and the maximum value P ET2_P , and its calculation formula is:

[0038] P ET2_Q =Q B2_RES / T 氢

[0039] P ET2_P =P B2_RES

[0040] Step 4: Based on the new energy safety and stability limit output and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment ΔP RES , calculate the power demand value P of the electrolyzer for the stability limit of new energy ET3 , and its calculation formula is:

[0041] P ET3 =ΔP RES

[0042] Step 5: Based on the electrolytic cell power demand values ​​calculated in steps 1, 2, and 3, calculate the electrolytic cell installed capacity demand forecast value P that meets the multiple constraints of consumption, peak regulation, and stability. ET The value range of is calculated as follows:

[0043] P ET ≥min(P ET1_Q ,P ET2_Q ,P ET3 )

[0044]

[0045] Where, P H2 Indicates the adjustable capacity of the grid-connected water electrolysis hydrogen production device;

[0046] Step 6: Get the electrolytic cell power demand value P ET3 and the predicted value of electrolytic cell installed capacity demand P ET The maximum value is used as the forecast value of the installed capacity demand of new energy hydrogen production electrolyzers.

[0047] According to another aspect of the present invention, a device for predicting installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer is provided, comprising:

[0048] The first determination module is used to determine the target year's renewable energy installed capacity plan for the power grid to be tested, and determine the target year's output curves of renewable energy stations under different renewable energy output composition scenarios based on the installed capacity plan;

[0049] The second determination module is used to perform power analysis on the power grid to be tested based on the pre-built power balance analysis data model and output curve, and determine the peak regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested;

[0050] The third determination module is used to perform power system security and stability analysis based on a pre-built power system security and stability simulation analysis data model, and determine the new energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment under stability constraints;

[0051] The fourth determination module is used to determine the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested based on the peak-shaving demand of the power grid, the new energy consumption demand and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment.

[0052] According to another aspect of the present invention, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, wherein the storage medium stores a computer program, and the computer program is used to execute the method according to any one of the above aspects of the present invention.

[0053] According to another aspect of the present invention, an electronic device is provided, comprising: a processor; a memory for storing instructions executable by the processor; and the processor for reading the executable instructions from the memory and executing the instructions to implement the method described in any one of the above aspects of the present invention.

[0054] Therefore, the present invention takes into account the conditions that must be considered in actual power grid operation, such as safety and stability, new energy consumption, and power balance, and ultimately reasonably determines the electrolyzer installation requirements that meet the multiple requirements of stability, peak regulation and consumption based on the regulation performance and adjustable capacity of the new energy hydrogen production equipment. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0055] A more complete understanding of exemplary embodiments of the present invention may be obtained by referring to the following drawings:

[0056] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for predicting the installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention;

[0057] Figure 2 This is another flow chart of a method for predicting the installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 3 It is a structural schematic diagram of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer installation demand forecasting device provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 4 This is a structure of an electronic device provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0060] Below, the exemplary embodiments according to the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments of the present invention, and it should be understood that the present invention is not limited to the exemplary embodiments described herein.

[0061] It should be noted that the relative arrangement of components and steps, the numerical expressions and numerical values ​​set forth in these embodiments do not limit the scope of the present invention unless specifically stated otherwise.

[0062] Those skilled in the art will understand that the terms "first" and "second" in the embodiments of the present invention are only used to distinguish different steps, devices or modules, and neither represent any specific technical meaning nor indicate the necessary logical order between them.

[0063] It should also be understood that, in the embodiments of the present invention, “a plurality of” may refer to two or more than two, and “at least one” may refer to one, two or more than two.

[0064] It should also be understood that any component, data or structure mentioned in the embodiments of the present invention can generally be understood as one or more, unless explicitly limited or otherwise indicated in the context.

[0065] In addition, the term "and / or" in this invention merely describes an association relationship between related objects, indicating that three possible relationships exist. For example, A and / or B can represent: A exists alone, A and B exist simultaneously, and B exists alone. Furthermore, the character " / " in this invention generally indicates that the related objects are in an "or" relationship.

[0066] It should also be understood that the description of the various embodiments of the present invention focuses on the differences between the various embodiments, and the same or similar aspects thereof can be referenced with each other. For the sake of brevity, they will not be described one by one.

[0067] At the same time, it should be understood that for the convenience of description, the sizes of the various parts shown in the drawings are not drawn according to the actual proportional relationship.

[0068] The following description of at least one exemplary embodiment is merely illustrative in nature and is in no way intended to limit the invention, its application, or uses.

[0069] Technologies, methods, and equipment known to ordinary technicians in the relevant art may not be discussed in detail, but where appropriate, the technologies, methods, and equipment should be considered part of the specification.

[0070] It should be noted that like reference numerals and letters refer to like items in the following figures, and therefore, once an item is defined in one figure, it need not be further discussed in subsequent figures.

[0071] Embodiments of the present invention can be applied to electronic devices such as terminal devices, computer systems, and servers, and can operate in conjunction with numerous other general-purpose or specialized computing system environments or configurations. Examples of well-known terminal devices, computing systems, environments, and / or configurations suitable for use with terminal devices, computer systems, servers, and other electronic devices include, but are not limited to, personal computer systems, server computer systems, thin clients, thick clients, handheld or laptop devices, microprocessor-based systems, set-top boxes, programmable consumer electronics, network personal computers, minicomputer systems, mainframe computer systems, and distributed cloud computing technology environments including any of the above.

[0072] Electronic devices such as terminal devices, computer systems, and servers can be described in the general context of computer system-executable instructions (such as program modules) executed by a computer system. Generally, program modules can include routines, programs, object programs, components, logic, data structures, etc., which perform specific tasks or implement specific abstract data types. Computer systems / servers can be implemented in a distributed cloud computing environment, where tasks are performed by remote processing devices linked via a communication network. In a distributed cloud computing environment, program modules can be located on local or remote computing system storage media, including storage devices.

[0073] Exemplary Methods

[0074] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for predicting the installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention. This embodiment can be applied to electronic devices, such as Figure 1 As shown, the method 100 for predicting the installed capacity demand of new energy hydrogen production electrolyzers includes the following steps:

[0075] Step 101: determining a target year's renewable energy capacity planning for the power grid to be tested, and determining output curves for the target year's renewable energy stations under different renewable energy output composition scenarios based on the capacity planning;

[0076] Step 102: Perform power analysis on the power grid to be tested based on the pre-built power balance analysis data model and output curve to determine the peak regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested;

[0077] Step 103: Perform power system security and stability analysis based on the pre-built power system security and stability simulation analysis data model to determine the new energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment under stability constraints;

[0078] Step 104 , based on the peak regulation demand of the power grid, the demand for new energy consumption, and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment, determines the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under the multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested.

[0079] Specifically, the present invention proposes a method for predicting the installed capacity demand of electrolyzers for hydrogen production from new energy sources in provincial power grids that takes into account multiple requirements of stability, peak regulation and consumption. Under the joint constraints of stable operation of the actual power grid, the consumption rate of new energy sources and peak regulation of electricity, this method determines the output limit of new energy acceptance of the provincial power grid through simulation analysis of the safety and stability of the large power grid, proposes the annual peak regulation demand of the power grid and the consumption demand of new energy sources through simulation analysis of the annual power and electricity balance production, and finally determines the scale of electrolyzer installation in combination with the regulation performance of new energy water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment. This method can provide a method for predicting the installed capacity demand of electrolyzers under the key constraints of the power system for improving the regulation capacity of high-proportion new energy power systems by utilizing the flexible and adjustable performance of new energy hydrogen production equipment, and can also provide a reference for the low-carbon development form of future new power systems for power system planning technicians. Reference Figure 2 As shown, the following steps are included:

[0080] Step 1: New energy installed capacity planning and output forecast;

[0081] Step 2: Power balance analysis;

[0082] Step 3: Power system security and stability analysis;

[0083] Step 4: Forecast of installed capacity demand for new energy hydrogen production electrolyzers

[0084] Furthermore, the step 1 includes:

[0085] Step 1-1: Research the provincial power grid's renewable energy capacity planning for the target year, including: site selection for wind and photovoltaic power plants, total installed capacity, unit capacity, planned grid connection points, wind resource assessment data for wind farms, and solar resource assessment data for photovoltaic power plants;

[0086] Step 1-2: Based on the survey data, different new energy output combination scenarios are formed according to high wind power output, low wind power output, zero wind power output and high photovoltaic output, low photovoltaic output, and zero photovoltaic output, and the annual 8760-h output curve of new energy stations under different scenarios is predicted.

[0087] Furthermore, the step 2 includes:

[0088] Step 2-1: In the provincial power grid power balance analysis data model, adjust the renewable energy output data in the power system power balance analysis under different scenarios based on the target year renewable energy output curve determined in Step 1-2, or the revised renewable energy output in Step 3-7;

[0089] Step 2-2: Based on the power structure and load characteristics of the provincial power grid, taking into account the system reserve rate, coal-fired power obstruction rate, water supply in the target year, and the capacity and head of each reservoir, use power and energy balance analysis software to conduct a power and energy balance production simulation for the provincial power grid in the target year to determine the power balance surplus and energy balance surplus under multiple power output scenarios of the provincial power grid;

[0090] Step 2-3: Determine the power and electricity balance analysis results of step 2-2. If the system has a surplus of renewable energy power or electricity, proceed to step 2-4. If there is a power or electricity shortage, proceed to step 2-5. Otherwise, proceed to step 2-6.

[0091] Step 2-4: Record the power surplus P of the provincial power grid under the power balance requirement B1_RES Or power surplus Q B1_RES , and calculate the new energy consumption rate μ according to formula (1), and then proceed to steps 2-6:

[0092] μ=Q 用电_RES / Q 装机_RES (1)

[0093] Where Q 用电_RES and Q 装机_RES They represent the actual power generation and theoretical power generation of new energy respectively.

[0094] Step 2-5: Record the power deficit P of the provincial power grid under the power balance requirement B2_RES Or power shortage Q B2_RES , go to step 4;

[0095] Step 2-6: If the new energy consumption rate is not less than the specified target value, proceed to step 2-7; if the new energy consumption rate does not meet the consumption requirements, proceed to step 4;

[0096] Step 2-7: The output of new energy consumption meets the requirements, and the grid's new energy consumption does not require new energy hydrogen production;

[0097] Furthermore, the step 3 includes:

[0098] Step 3-1: In the provincial power grid power system security and stability simulation analysis data model, based on the production simulation conclusions that meet the power balance requirements determined in Step 2, establish or revise the power system security and stability simulation analysis data model under different renewable energy output scenarios;

[0099] Step 3-2: Conduct a safety and stability analysis of the provincial power grid for the target year using power system simulation analysis software, including analysis of reactive voltage, short-circuit current, static safety, static stability, transient stability, dynamic stability, voltage stability, and frequency stability.

[0100] Step 3-3: Determine the safety and stability analysis results of step 3-2. If the grid is unstable, analyze the cause of the instability. If the cause of the instability is an unreasonable proportion of renewable energy output, proceed to step 3-4; otherwise, proceed to step 3-5. If the grid is stable, proceed to step 3-6.

[0101] Step 3-4: Go to step 3-1 to adjust the proportion of renewable energy output in the power grid and record the cumulative value of the output adjustment ΔP RES ;

[0102] Step 3-5: Correct the grid operation mode or adjust the simulation analysis model parameters of the components that cause instability in the grid to form a new simulation analysis data model and proceed to step 3-1;

[0103] Step 3-6: Record and output the renewable energy output value, renewable energy output ratio, and cumulative value ΔP of renewable energy output adjustment that meet the requirements for safe and stable operation of the power grid. RES ;

[0104] Step 3-7: If ΔP RES >0, go to step 2-1.

[0105] Furthermore, the step 4 includes:

[0106] Step 4-1: Based on the power balance analysis conclusion of step 2, if the grid has no power or power surplus or deficit, then output the electrolyzer demand P ET =0, if there is a surplus, go to step 4-2; if there is a deficit, go to step 4-3;

[0107] Step 4-2: The power surplus P output according to step 2-3 B1_RES Or power surplus Q B1_RES Refer to formula (2) and formula (3) to calculate the minimum value P of the electrolytic cell power demand under surplus conditions ET1_Q and the maximum value P ET1_P ;

[0108] P ET1_Q =(μ0Q 装机_RES -Q B1_RES ) / T 氢 (2)

[0109] P ET1_P =P B1_RES (3)

[0110] In the formula, μ0 represents the new energy consumption target, T 氢 Indicates the annual operating hours of new energy hydrogen production;

[0111] Step 4-3: According to the power shortage P output in step 2-4 B2_RESOr power shortage Q B2_RES Refer to formula (4) and formula (5) to calculate the minimum value P of the electrolyzer power demand under the power shortage condition. ET2_Q and the maximum value P ET2_P ;

[0112] P ET2_Q =Q B2_RES / T 氢 (4)

[0113] P ET2_P =P B2_RES (5)

[0114] Step 4-3: Based on the output of step 3-6, the cumulative value of the new energy safety and stability limit output and the new energy output adjustment amount ΔP RES , refer to formula (6) to calculate the demand value P of the electrolytic cell power for the new energy stability limit ET3 ;

[0115] P ET3 =ΔP RES (6)

[0116] Step 4-4: Compare the electrolytic cell power demand values ​​calculated in steps 4-1, 4-2, and 4-3, and calculate the electrolytic cell installed capacity demand forecast value P that meets the multiple constraints of consumption, peak regulation, and stability according to formulas (7) and (8). ET The value range of is:

[0117] P ET ≥min(P ET1_Q ,P ET2_Q ,P ET3 ) (7)

[0118]

[0119] Where, P H2 Indicates the adjustable capacity of the grid-connected water electrolysis hydrogen production device.

[0120] The technical solution provided by the present invention has the following excellent effects:

[0121] 1. Aiming at the problem that it is difficult to determine the installed capacity of electrolyzers when hydrogen production by electrolysis of water is used to improve the regulation capacity of the power system and the new energy absorption capacity, a feasible and easy-to-implement solution is proposed from the practical application perspective of meeting multiple constraints such as the safe and stable operation of the power system, peak regulation needs, and new energy absorption needs.

[0122] 2. The application of hydrogen energy in the power system is still mainly based on experimental demonstration. With the rapid development of the new energy hydrogen production industry, the depth of electricity-hydrogen coupling is gradually increasing, and the potential demand for electricity-hydrogen interaction is continuously released. Based on the provincial power grid new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer installed capacity demand forecasting method that takes into account multiple requirements of stability, peak regulation and absorption, it is possible to conduct an analysis of the application potential of hydrogen energy to participate in grid peak regulation and enhance the new energy absorption capacity. This can not only help macro-policy researchers in cross-domain collaborative planning of electricity and hydrogen energy, but also provide a reference for power system operators to study new power system dispatching and operation strategies.

[0123] Exemplary devices

[0124] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer installation demand forecasting device provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention. Figure 3 As shown, the apparatus 300 includes:

[0125] The first determination module 310 is used to determine the target year's renewable energy installed capacity plan for the power grid to be tested, and determine the target year's output curves of renewable energy stations under different renewable energy output composition scenarios based on the installed capacity plan;

[0126] The second determination module 320 is configured to perform power analysis on the power grid to be tested based on the pre-built power balance analysis data model and the output curve, and determine the peak regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested;

[0127] The third determination module 330 is configured to perform a power system security and stability analysis based on a pre-built power system security and stability simulation analysis data model, and determine the maximum output of renewable energy accepted by the power grid under test and the cumulative value of the renewable energy output adjustment under stability constraints;

[0128] The fourth determination module 340 is used to determine the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under multiple constraints of the tested power grid based on the peak regulation demand of the power grid, the new energy consumption demand and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment.

[0129] Optionally, the new energy installed capacity planning includes: site selection for wind power and photovoltaic power stations, total installed capacity of power stations, capacity of single units, planned grid connection points, wind farm wind resource assessment data, and photovoltaic power station solar resource assessment data.

[0130] Optionally, the output curve of the new energy station in the target year under different new energy output composition scenarios is determined based on the installed capacity plan, including:

[0131] Based on the installed capacity planning, different new energy output combination scenarios are formed according to high wind power output, low wind power output, zero wind power output and high photovoltaic output, low photovoltaic output, and zero photovoltaic output;

[0132] Predict the output curve of new energy stations for 8760 hours throughout the year under different new energy output combination scenarios.

[0133] Optionally, a power analysis is performed on the power grid to be tested based on a pre-built power balance analysis data model and output curve to determine the peak load regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested, including:

[0134] Step 1: Input the output curve into the power balance analysis data model to adjust the renewable energy output data in the power system power balance analysis under different scenarios;

[0135] Step 2: Based on the power supply structure and load characteristics of the power grid under test, taking into account the system reserve rate, coal-fired power obstruction rate, water supply in the target year, and the capacity and head of each reservoir, conduct a power and energy balance production simulation for the power grid under test in the target year. Determine the power and energy balance analysis results under multiple power output scenarios of the power grid under test. The power and energy balance analysis results include: power balance surplus and energy balance surplus;

[0136] Step 3: Determine the results of the power balance analysis. If the system has a surplus of renewable energy power or power, record the power surplus P of the power grid under test under the power balance requirement. B1_RES and power surplus Q B1_RES , Power shortage P B2_RES And power shortage Q B2_RES , and output the peak load demand of the power grid;

[0137] Step 4: Calculate the new energy consumption rate μ. When the new energy consumption rate is less than the specified target value, output the new energy consumption demand. The calculation formula of the new energy consumption rate μ is:

[0138] μ=Q 用电_RES / Q 装机_RES

[0139] Where Q 用电_RES and Q 装机_RES They represent the actual power generation and theoretical power generation of new energy respectively.

[0140] Optionally, a power system security and stability analysis is performed based on a pre-built power system security and stability simulation analysis data model to determine the renewable energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the renewable energy output adjustment under stability constraints, including:

[0141] Step 1: In the power system security and stability simulation analysis data model to be tested, establish or modify the power system security and stability simulation analysis data model under different renewable energy output scenarios based on the power balance situation;

[0142] Step 2: Conduct a safety and stability analysis of the target year for the power grid under test based on the revised power system simulation analysis data model and determine the safety and stability analysis results. The safety and stability analysis includes reactive voltage, short-circuit current, static safety, static stability, transient stability, dynamic stability, voltage stability, and frequency stability analysis.

[0143] Step 3: Determine the safety and stability analysis results. If the power grid under test is unstable, determine whether the cause of the instability is an unreasonable proportion of renewable energy output. If so, proceed to step 4; otherwise, proceed to step 5. If the power grid is stable, proceed to step 6.

[0144] Step 4: Go to step 1 to adjust the proportion of renewable energy output in the power grid and record the cumulative value of renewable energy output adjustment ΔP RES ;

[0145] Step 5: Correct the grid operation mode or adjust the simulation analysis model parameters of the components that cause instability in the grid to form a new simulation analysis data model and proceed to step 1;

[0146] Step 6: Record and output the renewable energy output value, renewable energy output ratio, and cumulative value ΔP of renewable energy output adjustment that meet the requirements for safe and stable operation of the power grid. RES ;

[0147] Step 7: If ΔP RES >0, then redetermine the power balance.

[0148] Optionally, based on the peak regulation demand of the power grid, the demand for new energy consumption, and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment, a forecast value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested is determined, including:

[0149] Step 1: In the case of power balance, if the grid under test has no power or power surplus or shortage, then output the electrolyzer demand P ET =0, if there is a surplus, go to step 2; if there is a deficit, go to step 3;

[0150] Step 2: Based on the power surplus P B1_RES Or power surplus Q B1_RES Calculate the minimum value P of the electrolyzer power demand under surplus conditions ET1_Q and the maximum value P ET1_P , and its calculation formula is:

[0151] P ET1_Q =(μ0Q 装机_RES -Q B1_RES ) / T 氢

[0152] P ET1_P =P B1_RES

[0153] In the formula, μ0 represents the new energy consumption target, T 氢 Indicates the annual operating hours of new energy hydrogen production;

[0154] Step 3: According to the power shortage P B2_RES Or power shortage Q B2_RES Calculate the minimum value P of the electrolytic cell power demand for peak load regulation under power shortage conditions ET2_Q and the maximum value P ET2_P , and its calculation formula is:

[0155] P ET2_Q =Q B2_RES / T 氢

[0156] P ET2_P =P B2_RES

[0157] Step 4: Based on the new energy safety and stability limit output and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment ΔP RES , calculate the power demand value P of the electrolyzer for the stability limit of new energy ET3 , and its calculation formula is:

[0158] P ET3 =ΔP RES

[0159] Step 5: Based on the electrolytic cell power demand values ​​calculated in steps 1, 2, and 3, calculate the electrolytic cell installed capacity demand forecast value P that meets the multiple constraints of consumption, peak regulation, and stability. ET The value range of is calculated as follows:

[0160] P ET ≥min(P ET1_Q ,P ET2_Q ,P ET3 )

[0161]

[0162] Where, P H2 Indicates the adjustable capacity of the grid-connected water electrolysis hydrogen production device;

[0163] Step 6: Get the electrolytic cell power demand value P ET3 and the predicted value of electrolytic cell installed capacity demand P ET The maximum value is used as the forecast value of the installed capacity demand of new energy hydrogen production electrolyzers.

[0164] Exemplary electronic devices

[0165] Figure 4 This is the structure of an electronic device provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention. Figure 4 As shown, the electronic device 40 includes one or more processors 41 and a memory 42 .

[0166] The processor 41 may be a central processing unit (CPU) or other forms of processing units having data processing capabilities and / or instruction execution capabilities, and may control other components in the electronic device to perform desired functions.

[0167] The memory 42 may include one or more computer program products, which may include various forms of computer-readable storage media, such as volatile memory and / or non-volatile memory. The volatile memory may, for example, include random access memory (RAM) and / or cache memory (cache), etc. The non-volatile memory may, for example, include read-only memory (ROM), a hard disk, a flash memory, etc. One or more computer program instructions may be stored on the computer-readable storage medium, and the processor 41 may execute the program instructions to implement the methods of the software programs of the various embodiments of the present invention described above and / or other desired functions. In one example, the electronic device may further include: an input device 43 and an output device 44, which are interconnected via a bus system and / or other forms of connection mechanisms (not shown).

[0168] In addition, the input device 43 may also include, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, and the like.

[0169] The output device 44 can output various information to the outside. The output device 44 can include, for example, a display, a speaker, a printer, a communication network and a remote output device connected thereto.

[0170] Of course, to simplify, Figure 4 Only some of the components related to the present invention in the electronic device are shown, and components such as a bus, an input / output interface, etc. are omitted. In addition, the electronic device may further include any other appropriate components according to specific application conditions.

[0171] Exemplary computer program products and computer-readable storage media

[0172] In addition to the above-mentioned methods and devices, an embodiment of the present invention may also be a computer program product, which includes computer program instructions, which, when executed by a processor, enable the processor to perform the steps of the method according to various embodiments of the present invention described in the above "Exemplary Method" section of this specification.

[0173] The computer program product may be written in any combination of one or more programming languages ​​to implement the operations of embodiments of the present invention, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Java, C++, and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as C or similar programming languages. The program code may be executed entirely on the user's computing device, partially on the user's computing device, as a stand-alone software package, partially on the user's computing device and partially on a remote computing device, or entirely on a remote computing device or server.

[0174] In addition, an embodiment of the present invention may also be a computer-readable storage medium having computer program instructions stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, enable the processor to execute the steps of the method according to various embodiments of the present invention described in the above "Exemplary Method" section of this specification.

[0175] The computer-readable storage medium can adopt any combination of one or more readable media. The readable medium can be a readable signal medium or a readable storage medium. The readable storage medium can, for example, include but is not limited to a system, system or device of electricity, magnetism, light, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor, or any combination thereof. More specific examples (non-exhaustive list) of readable storage media include: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination thereof.

[0176] The basic principles of the present invention have been described above in conjunction with specific embodiments. However, it should be noted that the advantages, strengths, and effects mentioned in the present invention are merely illustrative and non-limiting, and should not be construed as necessarily possessed by each embodiment of the present invention. Furthermore, the specific details disclosed above are provided for illustrative purposes and to facilitate understanding, and are not intended to be limiting. These details do not necessarily limit the present invention to being implemented using these specific details.

[0177] Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, with each embodiment focusing on its differences from the other embodiments. References to the same or similar parts between the various embodiments are sufficient. For system embodiments, since they largely correspond to method embodiments, their description is relatively simple. For relevant parts, references to the description of the method embodiments are sufficient.

[0178] The block diagrams of the devices, systems, equipment, and systems involved in the present invention are merely illustrative examples and are not intended to require or imply that they must be connected, arranged, or configured in the manner shown in the block diagrams. As will be appreciated by those skilled in the art, these devices, systems, equipment, and systems can be connected, arranged, or configured in any manner. Words such as "including," "comprising," "having," and the like are open-ended words, meaning "including but not limited to," and can be used interchangeably therewith. The words "or" and "and" used herein refer to the words "and / or" and can be used interchangeably therewith, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. The word "such as" used herein refers to the phrase "such as but not limited to," and can be used interchangeably therewith.

[0179] The method and system of the present invention may be implemented in many ways. For example, the method and system of the present invention may be implemented by software, hardware, firmware, or any combination of software, hardware, and firmware. The above sequence of steps for the method is for illustration only, and the steps of the method of the present invention are not limited to the sequence specifically described above, unless otherwise specified. In addition, in some embodiments, the present invention may also be implemented as a program recorded in a recording medium, which includes machine-readable instructions for implementing the method according to the present invention. Thus, the present invention also covers recording media that store programs for executing the method according to the present invention.

[0180] It should also be noted that, in the system, device and method of the present invention, each component or each step can be decomposed and / or recombined. These decompositions and / or recombinations should be regarded as equivalent schemes of the present invention. The above description of the disclosed aspects is provided to enable any technician in this field to make or use the present invention. Various modifications to these aspects will be very obvious to those skilled in the art, and the general principles defined here can be applied to other aspects without departing from the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the aspects shown here, but according to the widest scope consistent with the principles disclosed here and novel features.

[0181] The above description has been presented for purposes of illustration and description. Furthermore, this description is not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention to the forms disclosed herein. Although a number of example aspects and embodiments have been discussed above, those skilled in the art will recognize certain variations, modifications, alterations, additions, and sub-combinations thereof.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the installed capacity demand of new energy hydrogen production electrolyzers, characterized in that: include: Determine the target year's renewable energy installed capacity plan for the power grid to be tested, and determine the target year's output curves for renewable energy stations under different renewable energy output composition scenarios based on the installed capacity plan; Performing power analysis on the power grid to be tested based on the pre-built power balance analysis data model and the output curve to determine the peak regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested; Conduct power system security and stability analysis based on pre-built power system security and stability simulation analysis data models, determine the maximum output of renewable energy accepted by the power grid under test, and the cumulative value of renewable energy output adjustment under stability constraints; Determine a predicted value of installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested based on the power grid peak regulation demand, the new energy consumption demand, and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment; Performing power analysis on the power grid to be tested based on the pre-built power balance analysis data model and the output curve to determine the peak load regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested, including: Step 1: Inputting the output curve into the power balance analysis data model to adjust the new energy output data in the power system power balance analysis under different scenarios; Step 2: Based on the power supply structure and load characteristics of the power grid to be tested, taking into account the system reserve rate, coal-fired power obstruction rate, water supply in the target year, and the capacity and head of each reservoir, conduct a power and electricity balance production simulation of the power grid to be tested in the target year, and determine the power and electricity balance analysis results under multiple power output scenarios of the power grid to be tested, wherein the power and electricity balance analysis results include: power balance surplus and electricity balance surplus; Step 3: Determine the power balance analysis result. If there is a surplus of new energy power or power in the system, record the power surplus P of the power grid under test under the power balance requirement. B1_RES and power surplus Q B1_RES , Power shortage P B2_RES And power shortage Q B2_RES , and output the peak-shaving demand of the power grid; Step 4: Calculate the new energy consumption rate μ. When the new energy consumption rate is less than the specified target value, output the new energy consumption demand. The calculation formula of the new energy consumption rate μ is: μ=Q 用电_RES / Q 装机_RES Where Q 用电 _ RES and Q 装机 _ RES Respectively represent the actual power generation and theoretical power generation of new energy; Conduct power system security and stability analysis based on the pre-built power system security and stability simulation analysis data model to determine the renewable energy acceptance limit output of the power grid under test and the cumulative value of renewable energy output adjustment under stability constraints, including: Step 1: In the power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model to be tested, according to the power balance situation, establish or modify the power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model under different renewable energy output scenarios; Step 2: Conduct a safety and stability analysis of the target year of the power grid to be tested based on the revised power system simulation analysis data model, and determine the safety and stability analysis results, wherein the safety and stability analysis includes: reactive voltage, short-circuit current, static safety, static stability, transient stability, dynamic stability, voltage stability, and frequency stability analysis; Step 3: Determine the safety and stability analysis results. If the power grid under test is unstable, determine whether the cause of the instability is an unreasonable proportion of renewable energy output. If so, proceed to step 4; otherwise, proceed to step 5. If the power grid is stable, proceed to step 6. Step 4: Go to step 1 to adjust the proportion of renewable energy output in the power grid and record the cumulative value of renewable energy output adjustment ΔP RES ; Step 5: Correct the grid operation mode or adjust the simulation analysis model parameters of the components that cause instability in the grid to form a new simulation analysis data model and proceed to step 1; Step 6: Record and output the renewable energy output value, renewable energy output ratio, and cumulative value ΔP of renewable energy output adjustment that meet the requirements for safe and stable operation of the power grid. RES ; Step 7: If ΔP RES >0, then redetermine the power balance.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The new energy installed capacity planning includes: site selection for wind power and photovoltaic power stations, total installed capacity of power stations, capacity of single units, planned grid connection points, wind resource assessment data for wind farms, and solar resource assessment data for photovoltaic power stations.

3. The method according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that Determine the output curve of the new energy station in the target year under different new energy output composition scenarios based on the installed capacity plan, including: According to the installed capacity plan, different new energy output combination scenarios are formed according to high wind power output, low wind power output, zero wind power output and high photovoltaic output, low photovoltaic output, and zero photovoltaic output; Predict the output curve of the new energy station for 8760 hours throughout the year under different new energy output combination scenarios.

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein Determining a predicted value of installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested based on the power grid peak regulation demand, the new energy consumption demand, and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment amount, including: Step 1: In the power and electricity balance situation, if the grid to be tested has no power or electricity surplus or shortage, then the electrolyzer demand P is output. ET =0, if there is a surplus, go to step 2; if there is a deficit, go to step 3; Step 2: Based on the power surplus P B1_RES Or the power surplus Q B1_RES Calculate the minimum value P of the electrolyzer power demand under surplus conditions ET1_Q and the maximum value P ET1_P , and its calculation formula is: P ET1_Q =(μ0Q 装机_RES -Q B1_RES ) / T 氢 P ET1_P =P B1_RES In the formula, μ0 represents the new energy consumption target, T 氢 Indicates the annual operating hours of new energy hydrogen production; Step 3: According to the power shortage P B2_RES Or the power shortage Q B2_RES Calculate the minimum value P of the electrolytic cell power demand for peak load regulation under power shortage conditions ET2_Q and the maximum value P ET2_P , and its calculation formula is: P ET2_Q =Q B2_RES / T 氢 P ET2_P =P B2_RES Step 4: Based on the new energy safety and stability limit output and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment ΔP RES , calculate the power demand value P of the electrolyzer for the stability limit of new energy ET3 , and its calculation formula is: P ET3 =ΔP RES Step 5: Based on the electrolytic cell power demand values ​​calculated in steps 1, 2, and 3, calculate the electrolytic cell installed capacity demand forecast value P that meets the multiple constraints of consumption, peak regulation, and stability. ET The value range of is calculated as follows: P ET ≥min(P ET1_Q ,P ET2_Q ,P ET3 ) Where, P H2 Indicates the adjustable capacity of the grid-connected water electrolysis hydrogen production device; Step 6: Take the electrolytic cell power demand value P ET3 and the electrolytic cell installed capacity demand forecast value P ET The maximum value of is used as the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer.

5. A new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer installed capacity demand forecasting device, characterized in that: include: A first determination module is used to determine the target year's renewable energy installed capacity plan for the power grid to be tested, and determine the target year's output curves of renewable energy stations under different renewable energy output composition scenarios based on the installed capacity plan; A second determination module is configured to perform power analysis on the power grid to be tested based on a pre-built power balance analysis data model and the output curve, and determine the peak regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested; The third determination module is used to perform power system security and stability analysis based on a pre-built power system security and stability simulation analysis data model, and determine the new energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment under stability constraints; A fourth determination module is configured to determine a predicted value of installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested based on the power grid peak regulation demand, the new energy consumption demand, and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment amount; The second determination module includes: Step 1: Inputting the output curve into the power balance analysis data model to adjust the new energy output data in the power system power balance analysis under different scenarios; Step 2: Based on the power supply structure and load characteristics of the power grid to be tested, taking into account the system reserve rate, coal-fired power obstruction rate, water supply in the target year, and the capacity and head of each reservoir, conduct a power and electricity balance production simulation of the power grid to be tested in the target year, and determine the power and electricity balance analysis results under multiple power output scenarios of the power grid to be tested, wherein the power and electricity balance analysis results include: power balance surplus and electricity balance surplus; Step 3: Determine the power balance analysis result. If there is a surplus of new energy power or power in the system, record the power surplus P of the power grid under test under the power balance requirement. B1_RES and power surplus Q B1_RES , Power shortage P B2_RES And power shortage Q B2_RES , and output the peak-shaving demand of the power grid; Step 4: Calculate the new energy consumption rate μ. When the new energy consumption rate is less than the specified target value, output the new energy consumption demand. The calculation formula of the new energy consumption rate μ is: μ=Q 用电_RES / Q 装机_RES Where Q 用电 _ RES and Q 装机 _ RES Respectively represent the actual power generation and theoretical power generation of new energy; The third determination module includes: Step 1: In the power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model to be tested, according to the power balance situation, establish or modify the power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model under different renewable energy output scenarios; Step 2: Conduct a safety and stability analysis of the target year of the power grid to be tested based on the revised power system simulation analysis data model, and determine the safety and stability analysis results, wherein the safety and stability analysis includes: reactive voltage, short-circuit current, static safety, static stability, transient stability, dynamic stability, voltage stability, and frequency stability analysis; Step 3: Determine the safety and stability analysis results. If the power grid under test is unstable, determine whether the cause of the instability is an unreasonable proportion of renewable energy output. If so, proceed to step 4; otherwise, proceed to step 5. If the power grid is stable, proceed to step 6. Step 4: Go to step 1 to adjust the proportion of renewable energy output in the power grid and record the cumulative value of renewable energy output adjustment ΔP RES ; Step 5: Correct the grid operation mode or adjust the simulation analysis model parameters of the components that cause instability in the grid to form a new simulation analysis data model and proceed to step 1; Step 6: Record and output the renewable energy output value, renewable energy output ratio, and cumulative value ΔP of renewable energy output adjustment that meet the requirements for safe and stable operation of the power grid. RES ; Step 7: If ΔP RES >0, then redetermine the power balance.

6. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that The storage medium stores a computer program, and the computer program is used to execute the method according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

7. An electronic device, characterized in that: The electronic device comprises: processor; a memory for storing instructions executable by the processor; The processor is configured to read the executable instructions from the memory and execute the instructions to implement the method according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

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