Method and system for checking and evaluating short-time heavy rainfall effect
Through the short-term heavy rainfall effect inspection and evaluation method, data preprocessing, convection storm identification and short-term heavy rainfall forecast evaluation steps are used to solve the problem of inability to evaluate short-term heavy rainfall in the existing technology, and the effective model forecasting ability is achieved Evaluate.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202411425374.8
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2024-10-12
- Publication Date
- 2024-12-24
AI Technical Summary
The existing technology lacks a specialized short-term heavy rainfall assessment method, which leads to the inability to effectively test and evaluate the short-term heavy rainfall capability predicted by the model.
A short-term heavy precipitation effect inspection and evaluation method is adopted, including data preprocessing, convection storm identification and short-term heavy precipitation forecast evaluation steps, and the storm is separated step by step through spatial interpolation, radar echo analysis, threshold identification, corrosion and expansion operations. Monomers and TS scores and RMSE were calculated to evaluate precipitation intensity.
The stations and grid points for short-term heavy precipitation with hourly precipitation exceeding 20mm were achieved, and the model's ability to predict short-term heavy precipitation was evaluated.
Smart Images
Figure CN119179125A_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of heavy rainfall effect evaluation, and in particular to a method and system for testing and evaluating short-term heavy rainfall effect. Background Art
[0002] Currently, there are a variety of inspection and evaluation methods for weather forecast products, mainly including TS score, root mean square error, etc., but there is no special evaluation method for short-term heavy rainfall. Short-term heavy rainfall refers to convective rainfall with precipitation exceeding 20 mm within an hour and radar echo exceeding 35dBZ. This makes it impossible to effectively test the effect of short-term heavy rainfall, and thus makes it impossible to evaluate the model's ability to forecast short-term heavy rainfall. Summary of the invention
[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for testing and evaluating the effect of short-term heavy rainfall, so as to solve the above-mentioned problems existing in the prior art.
[0004] In order to achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows:
[0005] A method for testing and evaluating the effect of short-term heavy rainfall comprises the following steps:
[0006] S1. Data preprocessing:
[0007] Input observed precipitation and model-forecasted radar echo and precipitation data, and perform spatial interpolation to make the observation and forecast spatially match;
[0008] S2. Convective storm identification:
[0009] Perform intensity analysis on the forecast radar echo to identify the target echo area; use higher thresholds from the first level to identify the storm body in the target echo area, and perform corrosion and / or expansion operations on the identification results, so as to gradually separate the storm cells with uneven strength in the storm cluster;
[0010] S3. Short-term heavy precipitation forecast assessment:
[0011] Calculate the TS score and RMSE in the target echo area where the precipitation intensity is greater than or equal to the preset precipitation intensity.
[0012] Preferably, step S2 specifically includes the following contents:
[0013] S21, using the first level threshold to perform single threshold recognition on the target echo area, and performing a corrosion operation on the recognized storm body to eliminate weak connections between adjacent storm bodies, thereby solving the problem of false merging between storm bodies;
[0014] S22, using a higher threshold to perform single threshold recognition on the target echo area, and performing a dilation operation on the recognized storm body;
[0015] S23. Use higher-level thresholds successively to perform single-threshold identification on the target echo area, and perform corrosion and expansion operations on the identified storm body in each level of identification process, so as to gradually separate the individual storm cells with uneven strength in the storm cluster.
[0016] Preferably, when the boundaries of the storm body touch each other or touch the boundary of the storm body originally identified by the lower threshold during the expansion process, the expansion process is stopped.
[0017] Preferably, the target echo area is an area where the echo intensity is greater than or equal to 35 dBZ.
[0018] Preferably, the preset precipitation intensity is 20 mm / hour.
[0019] The present invention also aims to provide a short-term heavy rainfall effect inspection and evaluation system, which can implement any of the above-mentioned methods; the system comprises:
[0020] Data preprocessing module: inputs observed precipitation and radar echo and precipitation data predicted by the model, and performs spatial interpolation to make the observed and predicted spaces match;
[0021] Convective storm identification module: analyze the intensity of the forecast radar echo and identify the target echo area; use higher thresholds from the first level threshold to identify the storm body in the target echo area, and perform corrosion and / or expansion operations on the identification results, so as to gradually separate the storm cells with uneven strength in the storm cluster;
[0022] Short-term heavy precipitation forecast evaluation module: Calculate the TS score and RMSE in the target echo area where the precipitation intensity is greater than or equal to the preset precipitation intensity.
[0023] The beneficial effects of the present invention are: being able to carry out site and grid point evaluation on short-term heavy rainfall with an hourly precipitation exceeding 20 mm, and evaluating the ability of the model to forecast short-term heavy rainfall. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0024] Figure 1 Detailed description of the invention Figure 4 is a flow chart of an evaluation method in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0025] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention more clear, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the specific implementation methods described here are only used to explain the present invention and are not used to limit the present invention.
[0026] like Figure 1 As shown, in this embodiment, a short-term heavy rainfall effect inspection and evaluation method is provided. First, the convective system type is determined, namely, convective storm, convective precipitation and mixed convection. Then, the TS score and RMSE are used to evaluate the precipitation of grid points and stations. This method can be used for meteorological research and forecast model evaluation. The data types that can be processed include netcdf and ASCII decimal files. The method of the present invention mainly includes the following contents:
[0027] 1. Data preprocessing:
[0028] The observed precipitation and the radar echo and precipitation data predicted by the model are input and spatially interpolated to make the observation and forecast spatially match.
[0029] 2. Convective Storm Identification:
[0030] The forecast radar echo is analyzed for intensity to identify the target echo area. Starting from the first-level threshold, higher-level thresholds are used in sequence to identify the storm body in the target echo area, and the identification results are eroded and / or expanded to separate the storm cells of uneven strength in the storm cluster step by step.
[0031] The specific steps include:
[0032] 2.1. Use the first-level threshold to perform single threshold recognition on the target echo area, and perform corrosion operation on the recognized storm body to eliminate the weak connection between adjacent storm bodies, thereby solving the problem of false merging between storm bodies;
[0033] 2.2. Use a higher threshold to perform single threshold recognition on the target echo area and perform expansion on the recognized storm body. When the boundaries of the storm body touch each other or the boundaries of the storm body originally recognized by the lower threshold during the expansion process, stop the expansion process.
[0034] 2.3. Use higher-level thresholds successively to perform single-threshold identification on the target echo area, and perform corrosion and expansion operations on the identified storm body in each level of identification process, so as to gradually separate the storm cells with uneven strength in the storm cluster.
[0035] In this embodiment, the target echo area is an area where the echo intensity is greater than or equal to 35 dBZ.
[0036] 3. Short-term heavy precipitation forecast assessment:
[0037] Calculate the TS score and RMSE in the target echo area where the precipitation intensity is greater than or equal to the preset precipitation intensity.
[0038] In this embodiment, the preset precipitation intensity is 20 mm / hour.
[0039] In this embodiment, a short-term heavy rainfall effect inspection and evaluation system is provided, and the system can implement the above-mentioned method; the system includes:
[0040] 1. Data preprocessing module: input observed precipitation and radar echo and precipitation data predicted by the model, and perform spatial interpolation to make the observed and predicted spaces match;
[0041] 2. Convective storm identification module: Analyze the intensity of the forecast radar echo and identify the target echo area; use higher thresholds from the first level to identify the storm body in the target echo area, and perform corrosion and / or expansion operations on the identification results, so as to gradually separate the storm cells with uneven strength in the storm cluster;
[0042] 3. Short-term heavy precipitation forecast evaluation module: Calculate the TS score and RMSE in the target echo area where the precipitation intensity is greater than or equal to the preset precipitation intensity.
[0043] In this embodiment, the present invention is mainly developed using fortran and python, including a series of command line tools, each of which focuses on a specific meteorological data processing or analysis task.
[0044] By adopting the above technical solution disclosed in the present invention, the following beneficial effects are obtained:
[0045] The present invention provides a method and system for testing and evaluating the effect of short-term heavy rainfall, which can perform site and grid point evaluation on short-term heavy rainfall with hourly precipitation exceeding 20 mm, and evaluate the ability of the model to predict short-term heavy rainfall.
[0046] The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be pointed out that for ordinary technicians in this technical field, several improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the principle of the present invention. These improvements and modifications should also be considered as the scope of protection of the present invention.
Claims
1. A method for testing and evaluating the effect of short-term heavy rainfall, characterized in that: The following steps are included: S1. Data preprocessing: Input observed precipitation and model-forecasted radar echo and precipitation data, and perform spatial interpolation to make the observation and forecast spatially match; S2. Convective storm identification: Perform intensity analysis on the forecast radar echo to identify the target echo area; use higher thresholds from the first level to identify the storm body in the target echo area, and perform corrosion and / or expansion operations on the identification results, so as to gradually separate the storm cells with uneven strength in the storm cluster; S3. Short-term heavy precipitation forecast assessment: Calculate the TS score and RMSE in the target echo area where the precipitation intensity is greater than or equal to the preset precipitation intensity.
2. The short-term heavy rainfall effect inspection and evaluation method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Step S2 specifically includes the following contents: S21, using the first level threshold to perform single threshold recognition on the target echo area, and performing a corrosion operation on the recognized storm body to eliminate weak connections between adjacent storm bodies, thereby solving the problem of false merging between storm bodies; S22, using a higher threshold to perform single threshold recognition on the target echo area, and performing a dilation operation on the recognized storm body; S23. Use higher-level thresholds successively to perform single-threshold identification on the target echo area, and perform corrosion and expansion operations on the identified storm body in each level of identification process, so as to gradually separate the individual storm cells with uneven strength in the storm cluster.
3. The short-term heavy rainfall effect inspection and evaluation method according to claim 2 is characterized in that: When the boundaries of the storm bodies touch each other or touch the boundaries of the storm bodies originally identified by the lower threshold during the expansion process, the expansion process is stopped.
4. The short-term heavy rainfall effect inspection and evaluation method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The target echo area is an area where the echo intensity is greater than or equal to 35 dBZ.
5. The short-term heavy rainfall effect inspection and evaluation method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The preset precipitation intensity is 20 mm / hour.
6. A short-term heavy rainfall effect inspection and evaluation system, characterized in that: The system can implement any of the methods described in claims 1 to 5 above; the system include, Data preprocessing module: inputs observed precipitation and radar echo and precipitation data predicted by the model, and performs spatial interpolation to make the observed and predicted spaces match; Convective storm identification module: analyze the intensity of the forecast radar echo and identify the target echo area; use higher thresholds from the first level threshold to identify the storm body in the target echo area, and perform corrosion and / or expansion operations on the identification results, so as to gradually separate the storm cells with uneven strength in the storm cluster; Short-term heavy precipitation forecast evaluation module: Calculate the TS score and RMSE in the target echo area where the precipitation intensity is greater than or equal to the preset precipitation intensity.