Marine meteorological sounding balloon horizontal drift prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses a marine meteorological sounding balloon horizontal drift prediction method. The method comprises the following steps: calculating the acceleration of a sounding balloon in dry air; taking a sounding balloon release point as a coordinate origin at the moment of 0; the wind speed at the origin of the coordinates is obtained through the grid point data and the average wind logarithm law, vector synthesis is carried out on the wind speed and the acceleration, and the coordinates of the sounding balloon after 30 seconds are calculated; taking the coordinate of the last 30 seconds as a new coordinate origin, and so on until the sounding balloon enters the free atmosphere; acquiring the wind speed by utilizing linear interpolation, performing vector synthesis on the wind speed and the acceleration, and calculating the coordinates of the sounding balloon after 30 seconds until the sounding balloon enters the stratosphere; obtaining a horizontal wind speed through linear interpolation, carrying out vector synthesis on the horizontal wind speed and the acceleration, and calculating the coordinates of the sounding balloon after 30 seconds; and so on, the balloon is pushed until the balloon flies out of the stratosphere, thereby obtaining the flight path of the sounding balloon. The method can provide a reference for the detection of the marine target weather phenomenon, facilitates the reduction of the detection cost, and also facilitates the improvement of the detection pertinence and accuracy.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the horizontal drift of a marine meteorological sounding balloon, and belongs to the technical field of atmospheric sounding and measurement. Background Art

[0002] High-altitude atmospheric detection is of great significance to meteorological services, disaster prevention and mitigation, agricultural services and scientific research. By launching sounding balloons equipped with various sensors, parameters such as temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind direction, and wind speed at various altitudes in the atmosphere can be measured, providing important data for weather forecasts, climate predictions, scientific research, and international exchanges. The sounding system includes a base measurement box, a receiving antenna, a display system, a Beidou sounding instrument, and a sounding balloon, among which the sounding balloon carrying the sounding instrument is the launching part. At present, there are the following problems in the launch of sounding balloons: (1) The movement of the sounding balloon is random, and the target weather phenomenon is localized. In the context of strong winds, especially high-impact weather, the horizontal drift distance of the sounding balloon is large, and it is impossible to accurately and effectively capture the atmospheric state above the target weather phenomenon. (2) The prediction of traditional sounding balloons mainly uses the wind field observed by the sounding at the previous moment as an approximation of the future atmospheric wind field, assuming that the temporal variation of the atmospheric wind field is small. However, there is a large deviation between the above assumptions and the actual situation, especially in high-impact weather conditions, resulting in low accuracy of the prediction results. (3) The launching part is usually a one-time detection and cannot be reused, resulting in high detection costs. Summary of the invention

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for predicting the horizontal drift of a marine meteorological sounding balloon. The method is based on the three-dimensional meteorological element field data predicted by the model, optimizes the wind speed profile of the marine atmospheric boundary layer, and thus predicts the horizontal drift of the sounding balloon. The method can more accurately predict the horizontal drift distance of the sounding balloon, provide a reference for the detection of the target weather system, and achieve targeted detection.

[0004] A method for predicting the horizontal drift of a marine meteorological sounding balloon is characterized by comprising the following steps: (1) Select a sounding balloon and obtain the three-dimensional spatiotemporal forecast field of meteorological elements in the area where the sounding balloon is launched. According to the characteristics of the wind field profile, the atmosphere is divided into three layers, namely the boundary layer, the free atmosphere, and the stratosphere; (2) Taking the launch point of the sounding balloon as the coordinate origin at time 0, the Kriging interpolation method is used to interpolate the 0.25-degree resolution background field into 100-meter resolution grid data, thereby obtaining the X-direction horizontal wind speed u, Y-direction horizontal wind speed v, Z-direction vertical wind speed w, air pressure P, and temperature t of each grid point; (3) Calculate the net lift force A of the balloon and calculate the ascent speed W of the sounding balloon in dry air based on the net lift force A; (4) The horizontal wind direction at the origin of the coordinate system is obtained by using the obtained horizontal wind speed u in the X direction and the horizontal wind speed v in the Y direction of the grid point. The horizontal wind speed rate at the origin of the coordinate system is obtained by using the classic boundary layer average wind logarithmic law formula. The horizontal wind speed at the origin of the coordinate system is obtained by combining the two. The vertical wind speed w in the Z direction of the grid point is obtained by combining the vertical wind speed W at the release point. 零 The vertical velocity is synthesized, and then the vertical velocity is vector-synthesized with the horizontal wind speed to obtain the balloon velocity at the origin of the coordinates; and the coordinates of the sounding balloon are calculated 30 seconds later; (5) Take the coordinates after 30 seconds as the new coordinate origin, and continue to obtain the coordinates after every 30 seconds by analogy with steps (3) and (4) until the sounding balloon enters the free atmosphere; (6) Taking the first coordinate after the sounding balloon enters the free atmosphere as the origin, interpolate the spatiotemporal forecast field data using linear interpolation to obtain the wind speed of the sounding balloon at the origin; perform vector synthesis of the wind speed and the rise speed W to obtain the speed of the sounding balloon, and calculate the coordinates of the sounding balloon 30 seconds after entering the free atmosphere; (7) Use the coordinates as the new coordinate origin and continue to obtain the coordinates every 30 seconds in the same manner as step (6) until the sounding balloon enters the stratosphere; (8) Taking the first coordinate after the sounding balloon enters the stratosphere as the coordinate origin, interpolate the spatiotemporal forecast field data in the horizontal direction by linear interpolation to obtain the horizontal wind speed of the sounding balloon at the origin; perform vector synthesis of the horizontal wind speed and the rise speed W to obtain the speed of the sounding balloon, and calculate the coordinates of the sounding balloon 30 seconds after entering the stratosphere; (9) Take this coordinate as the new origin and proceed in the same way as step (8) to obtain the coordinates for the next 30 seconds until the balloon leaves the stratosphere, thereby obtaining the flight trajectory of the sounding balloon.

[0005] The calculation of the sounding balloon lift speed W includes first calculating the balloon net lift force A, in Newton N, , Where m is the mass of the balloon, g The buoyancy of the balloon during its ascent is , is the air density; is the density of hydrogen; V is the volume of the balloon; D is the diameter of the hydrogen balloon; B is the load; Then the sounding balloon's ascent speed is calculated using the following formula: , in, To increase the speed of the sounding balloon, is the speed-up coefficient, usually 120, is the standard atmospheric density, usually taken , is the actual atmospheric density, For net lifting force, For load.

[0006] The calculation of the sounding balloon rising speed W can also be as follows: set up is the ascent speed of the sounding balloon under the standard atmospheric density. = ,but , When the size and load of the sounding balloon are determined, is a constant, The speed increase formula becomes , The atmospheric state equation Substitute into the above formula, where P is the air pressure, T is the temperature, and R is the atmospheric gas constant, which is 287.05 J / kg·K. The speed of rise W becomes a quantity related to P and T. , The atmospheric gas constant R = 287.05 J / kg·K and the standard atmospheric density Substituting this into the vertical velocity of the sounding balloon under any P and T conditions, we can obtain: .

[0007] In step 3-9, the balloon's ascent speed is calculated using the above formula using the air pressure P and temperature t obtained after Kriging interpolation.

[0008] In the boundary layer, that is, from the sea surface to the interface between the boundary layer and the free atmosphere, in order to more accurately describe the characteristics of the boundary layer wind profile, the logarithmic law formula of the boundary layer average wind is used to calculate the horizontal wind speed at any height. , in, is the wind speed at height z, z is any height in the boundary layer, is the gradient wind, is the gradient wind height, is the surface roughness index, The classification table of topographic roughness in my country's current standards is as follows: Table 1: Landform roughness classification table , When the wind blows from the ocean to the land, the terrain roughness class is A. ,in, is the wind speed at the boundary layer height, Boundary layer height; When the wind blows from land to sea, it is necessary to select the value of the topographic roughness category from B, C, and D based on the topographic conditions of the upwind area at the sounding balloon launch point.

[0009] To improve accuracy, the wind speed at this height is obtained through the boundary layer height data provided by the three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field, replacing the fixed gradient wind height under different landform conditions in the landform roughness classification table. , in, is the wind speed at the boundary layer height, Boundary layer height.

[0010] The present invention proposes a new method for predicting the horizontal drift of a marine meteorological sounding balloon, designs different calculation methods for the boundary layer, free atmosphere, and stratosphere, and revises the local wind speed forecast accuracy, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the horizontal drift distance of the sounding balloon. According to the horizontal drift distance of the sounding balloon, targeted weather phenomenon detection is carried out, which is conducive to improving observation efficiency and reducing observation costs. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0011] Figure 1 The present invention is a flow chart of a method for predicting the horizontal drift of a marine meteorological sounding balloon.

[0012] Figure 2 The figure is a schematic diagram of a three-dimensional drift trajectory of a sounding balloon according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0013] Figure 3 The figure is a schematic diagram of the horizontal drift trajectory of a sounding balloon according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0014] like Figure 1 As shown, the technical solution of this application includes the following parts: Select a sounding balloon and calculate its ascent speed as follows.

[0015] When the balloon is filled with hydrogen and rises vertically, it is subject to vertical forces, and the forces in other directions cancel each other out and can be ignored. Assuming that the atmosphere in which the balloon is located is dry air, according to Archimedes' buoyancy principle, the buoyancy force on the balloon during its ascent is . Let A represent the net lifting force of the balloon in Newtons (N), then (1), in, is the air density; is the density of hydrogen; V is the volume of the balloon; D is the diameter of the hydrogen balloon; B is the load (including: balloon, sonde and rope, etc.). Assuming the weight of the sonde is 550g, the balloon uses the conventional 750g. Under standard conditions , , substituting into formula (1) can obtain the net lifting force, formula (2) is as follows: .

[0016] The net lift A of a sounding balloon usually does not change much and can be set as a constant. Therefore, the ascent speed depends on the balance between the net lift and the drag. Here, the drag is the friction between the balloon and the air, and the friction is related to the density of the air. Since the mass of the air inside the balloon and the air displaced is a fixed value, the change in density depends on the change in the volume of the balloon, and the change in the volume of the balloon depends on the temperature and pressure of the atmosphere where the balloon is located. Since the temperature and atmospheric pressure do not change linearly with increasing altitude, the change in the density of the gas inside and outside the balloon with the altitude of the balloon is also a variable that changes with the temperature and atmospheric pressure. The calculation formula for the ascent speed of a sounding balloon is as follows, , Among them, To increase the speed of the sounding balloon, is the speed-up coefficient, usually 120, is the standard atmospheric density, usually taken , is the actual atmospheric density, For net lifting force, is the load. Except for , the others are constants. It can be seen that when the net lift of the balloon is constant, the speed of the balloon's ascent depends only on the actual atmospheric density at the balloon's location.

[0017] set up is the ascent speed of the sounding balloon under the standard atmospheric density. = , (3) can be changed to, .

[0018] When the size and load of the sounding balloon are determined, is a constant, Then (3) can be rewritten as: .

[0019] The atmospheric state equation Substituting RT (where P is air pressure, T is temperature, and R is the atmospheric gas constant, which is 287.05 J / kg·K) into equation (5), the speed W can be transformed into a quantity related to P and T: .

[0020] The atmospheric gas constant R = 287.05 J / kg·K and the standard atmospheric density Substituting into equation (6), we can obtain the vertical ascent speed of the sounding balloon under any P and T conditions: .

[0021] Based on dynamic and statistical methods, the regional three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field is downscaled to obtain high-resolution meteorological element field data. According to the characteristics of the wind field profile, this part divides the atmosphere into three layers, namely the boundary layer, free atmosphere and stratosphere.

[0022] 1) In the boundary layer, that is, from the sea surface to an altitude of 1500 meters. The atmospheric boundary layer, also known as the planetary boundary layer, serves as a link between the ground and the sky, connecting the atmosphere and the earth's surface. Due to the friction of the underlying surface, when the atmosphere flows over the ground, rough objects on the ground will hinder the atmospheric flow and produce turbulence. Therefore, the vertical change of wind speed in the boundary layer is not linear. At the same time, because the vertical resolution of the three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field is relatively coarse in this application (only 7 layers below 850hPa, namely 1000, 975, 950, 925, 900, 875, and 850hPa), the distance between each isobaric surface is about 200 meters. In order to more accurately describe the characteristics of the boundary layer wind profile, the present invention introduces the logarithmic law formula of the classic boundary layer average wind, as shown below, (8), in, is the wind speed at height z, z is any height, is the gradient wind, is the gradient wind height, is the surface roughness index.

[0023] It should be noted that the gradient wind height is the height of the top of the boundary layer, and the gradient wind is the wind speed at the top of the boundary layer. To improve accuracy, the present invention obtains the wind speed at this height through the boundary layer height data provided by the three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field, replacing the fixed gradient wind height under different landform conditions in Table 1. Formula (8) can be changed to, (9), in, is the wind speed at the boundary layer height, Boundary layer height.

[0024] The classification table of topographic roughness in my country's current standards is as follows: Table 1: Landform roughness classification table .

[0025] Since the parameters involved in the logarithmic law formulas for different roughness are different, the wind direction must be considered when launching sounding balloons near the coast.

[0026] When the wind blows from the ocean to the land, the terrain roughness class is A. , When the wind blows from land to sea, the value of the landform roughness category is selected based on the landform conditions in the upwind area of ​​the sounding balloon launch point in combination with Table 1.

[0027] 2) Free atmosphere, 16 layers from 850 hPa to 200 hPa, with a geometric height of about 1500 meters to 10000 meters.

[0028] In order to improve the vertical distribution resolution of the free atmosphere wind speed, the present invention uses a linear interpolation method to interpolate the isobaric surface wind speed with a resolution of 100 meters. Due to the active convection activity in the troposphere, the vertical motion caused by the abnormal atmospheric circulation cannot be ignored. At this time, the actual vertical speed can be obtained by the formula In It is obtained by taking the vector sum of the vertical velocity of the three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field.

[0029] 3) Stratospheric atmosphere, 13 layers from 200 hPa to 1 hPa, with a geometric height of about 10,000 meters to 50,000 meters.

[0030] In order to improve the vertical distribution resolution of stratospheric atmospheric wind speed, the present invention uses a linear interpolation method to interpolate the isobaric surface wind speed with a resolution of 100 meters. Since the stratosphere is dominated by advection motion, the influence of convection motion on the speed of the sounding balloon can be ignored. In order to save computer calculation, this solution does not interpolate the vertical speed of the three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field. The actual vertical speed is the formula In .

[0031] Dynamic tracking of the sounding balloon trajectory. Taking the spatial position of the sounding balloon as the coordinate origin, the interpolation results of the three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field are updated every 30 seconds.

[0032] For example, taking the launch point of the sounding balloon as the origin, the Kriging interpolation method is used to interpolate the background field with a resolution of 0.25 degrees into horizontal grid data with a resolution of 100 meters; in the vertical direction, the isobaric surface coordinates are converted into geometric height coordinates, and the wind profile exponential law method of the boundary layer wind mentioned above is used to invert and obtain high-precision and high-resolution boundary layer vertical wind profiles; vertical linear interpolation is performed using the three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field to obtain vertical high-resolution data of the free atmosphere and stratosphere.

[0033] Taking the wind speed at the origin as the benchmark, combined with the vertical ascent speed, horizontal wind speed, vertical wind speed, etc. of the sounding balloon calculated in the previous article, assuming that the sounding balloon maintains the speed translation at the origin for 30 seconds, the spatial position of the sounding balloon is calculated. Similarly, the origin is set at the second point, the three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field is interpolated, and a new grid is constructed. Repeatedly, when tracking stops, the spatial positions are connected to form the 3D trajectory of the sounding balloon and the horizontal drift displacement trajectory.

[0034] Example

[0035] The technical solution of the present invention is explained below in conjunction with detailed examples so that colleagues in the relevant professions in this field can better understand and implement the technical solution of the present invention. This embodiment simulates the boundary layer and high-altitude atmospheric detection implementation process of a sea fog process in the eastern waters of a certain peninsula on January 30, 2024. The wind direction on the sea surface on that day was east-northeast wind, and the wind direction at an altitude of about 1,000 meters in the boundary layer gradually turned to southwest wind, and the wind speed gradually increased with the increase in altitude.

[0036] A method for predicting the horizontal drift of a marine meteorological sounding balloon. Figure 1 The process implementation process includes: S1: Select a sounding balloon of a certain size for inflation. For this detection process, a 750g balloon was selected and adjusted accordingly according to weather conditions. Prepare an inflation hose, connect one end to the outlet of the hydrogen bottle's pressure reducing valve, and put the other end into the balloon's inflation port. Slowly open the pressure reducing valve to start inflation.

[0037] S2: Obtain the three-dimensional spatiotemporal forecast field of meteorological elements in the launch area of ​​the sounding balloon. In this embodiment, the forecast data for the next hour is downloaded from the European center, including horizontal and vertical wind fields, temperature fields, pressure fields, and boundary layer height. The sounding balloon launch point is taken as the origin of the coordinate at time 0, and the Kriging interpolation method is used to interpolate the background field with a resolution of 0.25 degrees into horizontal grid data with a resolution of 100 meters.

[0038] The net lift force on the balloon and the initial ascent velocity of the sounding balloon are then calculated at the origin.

[0039] According to Archimedes' buoyancy principle, the buoyancy of the balloon during its ascent is . Let A represent the net lifting force of the balloon in Newtons (N), then , in, is the air density; is the density of hydrogen; V is the volume of the balloon; D is the diameter of the hydrogen balloon; B is the load (including: balloon, sonde and rope, etc.). Assuming the weight of the sonde is 550g, the balloon uses the conventional 750g. Under standard conditions , , formula (1) is transformed into formula (2) as follows: .

[0040] According to the derivation of the above formula (1-7), the next step is to calculate the sounding balloon's ascent speed according to formula (7): , The ascending speed is calculated to obtain the ascending speed of the three-dimensional grid balloon.

[0041] S3: Using the wind profile exponential law method of the boundary layer wind mentioned above, invert and obtain the high-precision and high-resolution boundary layer wind profile, and form the horizontal and vertical wind speeds at the origin of the coordinate at time 0, as well as the three-dimensional grid of related meteorological elements.

[0042] At this time, the sounding balloon is still in the boundary layer and the boundary layer wind profile characteristics are inverted using the mean wind logarithmic law formula. In this embodiment, this judgment height is set to be from sea level to 1500 meters (by analogy, when the sounding balloon is in the free atmosphere and stratosphere, the linear interpolation method is used to interpolate the isobaric surface wind speed with a resolution of 100).

[0043] The atmospheric boundary layer is the transition zone where the earth's surface and the atmosphere exchange matter and energy. The friction of the underlying surface is an important factor that distinguishes this layer from the free atmosphere. When the atmosphere flows over the ground, rough objects on the ground will hinder the atmospheric flow and produce turbulence. Therefore, the vertical change of wind speed within the boundary layer is not linear. At the same time, because the vertical resolution of the three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field is relatively coarse in this application (only 7 layers below 850 hPa, namely 1000, 975, 950, 925, 900, 875, and 850 hPa), the distance between each isobaric surface is about 200 meters. In order to more accurately describe the characteristics of the boundary layer wind profile, the present invention introduces the logarithmic law formula of the boundary layer average wind, as shown below, , in, is the wind speed at height z, z is any height, is the gradient wind, is the gradient wind height, is the ground roughness index. The gradient wind height is the height of the top of the boundary layer, and the gradient wind is the wind speed at the top of the boundary layer. In this embodiment, the wind speed at this height is obtained through the boundary layer height data of the three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field to improve the accuracy of the wind speed. The above formula is modified as follows: , in, is the wind speed at the boundary layer height, Boundary layer height.

[0044] In this embodiment, the geographical information of the sounding balloon launch is the eastern sea area of ​​Leizhou Peninsula, and the underlying surface is the ocean. However, the wind field forecast for this weather process is that the wind direction on the sea surface is northeasterly, and the wind turns to southwesterly in the sky. Therefore, the parameters involved in the logarithmic law formula of different roughness are different. When the sea surface wind blows from the ocean to the land, the landform roughness category is B. The wind speed profile in the boundary layer can be calculated by bringing the boundary layer height data into the three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field.

[0045] S4: Taking the wind speed at the origin of the coordinate at time 0 as the benchmark, combined with the three-dimensional grids of the sounding balloon's vertical ascent speed, horizontal wind speed, and vertical wind speed constructed by S2-S3, assuming that the sounding balloon maintains the speed translation of the origin of the coordinate at time 0 for 30 seconds, calculate the spatial position of the sounding balloon. Similarly, set the origin at the second point, interpolate the three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field, and construct a new grid. Repeat this cycle, and when the tracking stops, connect the spatial positions to form the 3D trajectory of the sounding balloon and the horizontal drift displacement trajectory.

[0046] S5: When the sounding balloon is in the free atmosphere, this judgment height is set between 850 hPa and 200 hPa in this embodiment, and the geometric height is about 1500 meters to 10000 meters. The calculations of S1 and S4 are implemented in the free atmosphere to calculate and track the balloon transfer trajectory. In order to improve the vertical distribution resolution of the wind speed in the free atmosphere, this embodiment uses a linear interpolation method to interpolate the wind speed on the isobaric surface with a resolution of 100 meters. At the same time, the influence of the vertical velocity on the ascent speed of the sounding balloon is considered.

[0047] When the sounding balloon is in the stratosphere, in this embodiment, the judgment altitude is set to 200 hPa to 1 hPa, a total of 13 layers, and the geometric altitude is about 10,000 meters to 50,000 meters. The calculations of S1 and S4 are implemented in the stratosphere to calculate and track the balloon transfer trajectory.

[0048] In order to improve the vertical distribution resolution of the stratospheric atmospheric wind speed, this embodiment uses a linear interpolation method to interpolate the isobaric surface wind speed with a resolution of 100 meters. Since the stratosphere is dominated by advection motion, the impact of convection motion on the speed of the sounding balloon can be ignored. In order to reduce the amount of computer calculation, this solution does not interpolate the vertical speed of the three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field.

[0049] S6: Dynamically track the trajectory of the sounding balloon and display the horizontal and vertical movement trajectory. Figure 2 and Figure 3 display.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the horizontal drift of a marine meteorological sounding balloon, characterized in that The following steps are involved: (1) Select a sounding balloon and obtain the three-dimensional spatiotemporal forecast field of meteorological elements in the area where the sounding balloon is launched. According to the characteristics of the wind field profile, the atmosphere is divided into three layers, namely the boundary layer, the free atmosphere, and the stratosphere; (2) Taking the launch point of the sounding balloon as the coordinate origin at time 0, the Kriging interpolation method is used to interpolate the 0.25-degree resolution background field into 100-meter resolution grid data, thereby obtaining the X-direction horizontal wind speed u, Y-direction horizontal wind speed v, Z-direction vertical wind speed w, air pressure P, and temperature t of each grid point; (3) Calculate the net lift force A of the balloon and calculate the ascent speed W of the sounding balloon in dry air based on the net lift force A; (4) The horizontal wind direction at the origin of the coordinate system is obtained by using the obtained horizontal wind speed u in the X direction and the horizontal wind speed v in the Y direction of the grid point. The horizontal wind speed rate at the origin of the coordinate system is obtained by using the classic boundary layer average wind logarithmic law formula. The horizontal wind speed at the origin of the coordinate system is obtained by combining the two. The vertical wind speed w in the Z direction of the grid point is obtained by combining the vertical wind speed W at the release point. 零 The vertical velocity is synthesized, and then the vertical velocity is vector-synthesized with the horizontal wind speed to obtain the balloon velocity at the origin of the coordinates; and the coordinates of the sounding balloon are calculated 30 seconds later; (5) Take the coordinates after 30 seconds as the new coordinate origin, and continue to obtain the coordinates after every 30 seconds by analogy with steps (3) and (4) until the sounding balloon enters the free atmosphere; (6) Taking the first coordinate after the sounding balloon enters the free atmosphere as the origin, interpolate the spatiotemporal forecast field data using linear interpolation to obtain the wind speed of the sounding balloon at the origin; perform vector synthesis of the wind speed and the rise speed W to obtain the speed of the sounding balloon, and calculate the coordinates of the sounding balloon 30 seconds after entering the free atmosphere; (7) Use the coordinates as the new coordinate origin and continue to obtain the coordinates every 30 seconds in the same manner as step (6) until the sounding balloon enters the stratosphere; (8) Taking the first coordinate after the sounding balloon enters the stratosphere as the coordinate origin, interpolate the spatiotemporal forecast field data in the horizontal direction by linear interpolation to obtain the horizontal wind speed of the sounding balloon at the origin; perform vector synthesis of the horizontal wind speed and the rise speed W to obtain the speed of the sounding balloon, and calculate the coordinates of the sounding balloon 30 seconds after entering the stratosphere; (9) Take this coordinate as the new origin and proceed in the same way as step (8) to obtain the coordinates for the next 30 seconds until the balloon leaves the stratosphere, thereby obtaining the flight trajectory of the sounding balloon.

2. The method for predicting the horizontal drift of a marine meteorological sounding balloon as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step of calculating the rising speed W of the sounding balloon comprises first calculating the net lifting force A of the balloon in Newtons N, ， in, m Balloon mass, g The acceleration due to gravity and the buoyancy of the balloon during its ascent are , is the air density; is the density of hydrogen; V is the volume of the balloon; D is the diameter of the hydrogen balloon; B is the load; Then the sounding balloon's ascent speed is calculated using the following formula: ， in, To increase the speed of the sounding balloon, is the speed-up coefficient, usually 120, is the standard atmospheric density, usually taken , is the actual atmospheric density, For net lifting force, For load.

3. The method for predicting the horizontal drift of a marine meteorological sounding balloon as claimed in claim 2, wherein the sounding balloon rise speed W is calculated as follows in step 3: set up is the ascent speed of the sounding balloon under the standard atmospheric density. = ,but ， When the size and load of the sounding balloon are determined, is a constant, The speed increase formula becomes ， The atmospheric state equation Substitute into the above formula, where P is the air pressure, T is the temperature, and R is the atmospheric gas constant, which is 287.05 J / kg·K. The speed of rise W becomes a quantity related to P and T. ， The atmospheric gas constant R = 287.05 J / kg·K and the standard atmospheric density Substituting this into the vertical velocity of the sounding balloon under any P and T conditions, we can obtain: 。 4. The method for predicting the horizontal drift of a marine meteorological sounding balloon as claimed in claim 3, characterized in that In step 3-9, the rising speed W is calculated using the air pressure P and temperature t obtained after Kriging interpolation.

5. The method for predicting the horizontal drift of a marine meteorological sounding balloon according to claim 1, wherein The logarithmic law formula of the boundary layer average wind is used to calculate the horizontal wind speed at any height as follows: ， in, is the wind speed at height z, z is any height in the boundary layer, is the gradient wind, is the gradient wind height, is the surface roughness index, The classification table of landform roughness is as follows: Table 1: Landform roughness classification table ， When the wind blows from the ocean to the land, the terrain roughness class is A. ,in, is the wind speed at the boundary layer height, Boundary layer height; When the wind blows from land to sea, it is necessary to select the value of the topographic roughness category from B, C, and D based on the topographic conditions of the upwind area at the sounding balloon launch point.

6. The method for predicting the horizontal drift of a marine meteorological sounding balloon as claimed in claim 5, characterized in that The wind speed at this height is obtained through the boundary layer height data provided by the three-dimensional meteorological element forecast field, replacing the fixed gradient wind height in different landform states in the landform roughness classification table. 。

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