A method for estimating the residual life of typical defects of oil-paper insulation

By establishing a partial discharge acquisition system and an insulation damage rate statistical model, the problem of inaccurate prediction of the remaining life of oil-paper insulation defects in the existing technology has been solved, and more accurate equipment life estimation has been achieved, which is applicable to equipment with large dispersion.

CN119335335BActive Publication Date: 2026-03-17XI AN JIAOTONG UNIV
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2024-10-09
Publication Date
2026-03-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing methods for predicting the remaining lifetime of paper insulation defects fail to adequately consider partial discharge behavior and defect development, resulting in inaccurate lifetime predictions and a lack of statistical analysis, making them unsuitable for equipment with dispersed lifetimes.

Method used

By building a partial discharge acquisition system, discharge experiments on typical defects in oil-paper insulation were conducted. The statistical relationship between insulation damage rate and percentage of lost life was established, and a model for estimating the remaining life of typical defects in oil-paper insulation was constructed. The remaining life was then estimated by combining the partial discharge data.

Benefits of technology

It provides a more accurate estimate of the remaining life of oil-paper insulated equipment, is applicable to equipment with a wide range of distribution, and takes into account the damage effect of partial discharge on insulation, thus improving the applicability and reliability of the prediction.

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Abstract

The application discloses a kind of oil paper insulation typical defect residual life estimation method, 1, build partial discharge collection system, through oil paper insulation typical defect discharge experiment, determine the statistical relationship of insulation damage rate and loss life percentage, establish oil paper insulation typical defect residual life estimation model;2, partial discharge detection is carried out to target equipment or target model, obtains relevant discharge data, calculates insulation damage rate, obtains the estimation range of residual life of target equipment or target model by the established oil paper insulation typical defect residual life estimation model.The method of the application can calculate the insulation damage rate of the current period of oil-filled equipment, and determine the loss life percentage range of insulation accordingly, which is of great significance for predicting the residual life of oil paper insulation typical defects.
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Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the technical field of electrical life estimation for oil-filled equipment, specifically relating to a method for estimating the remaining life of typical defects in oil-paper insulation. Background Technology

[0002] In power systems, oil-paper insulation is widely used in power transmission, substation, and distribution systems under high-voltage electrical environments. Due to its superior dielectric properties and long-term operational stability, oil-paper insulation is commonly used in the core insulation systems of electrical equipment. However, with the increase in equipment service time and the influence of the external environment, oil-paper insulation may develop various defects, such as air gaps, levitation, and tip discharge. These defects directly affect the lifespan and reliability of oil-filled equipment. Therefore, predicting the remaining life of oil-paper insulation systems is crucial for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of power systems.

[0003] While existing life prediction methods can assess the life of equipment to a certain extent, they still have some shortcomings, especially in estimating the remaining life of equipment with defects in paper insulation.

[0004] First, existing lifetime prediction methods often fail to adequately consider actual insulation defects. Typical prediction models assume the insulation system is in an ideal state, ignoring the existence and development of defects. Such models cannot accurately reflect the performance degradation caused by defects during long-term operation, leading to significant discrepancies between lifetime prediction results and actual conditions.

[0005] Secondly, most current lifetime prediction methods only consider the influence of electric field strength on lifetime, while neglecting the role of partial discharge behavior. Partial discharge is one of the common defect phenomena in oil-paper insulation systems, which can accelerate the aging and deterioration of insulation materials. However, due to the complexity and uncertainty of the discharge process, many existing methods have failed to fully consider this factor.

[0006] Furthermore, traditional lifetime prediction models are typically based on deterministic analysis of single factors, lacking statistical analysis of lifetime dispersion caused by discharge behavior. Equipment lifetime is influenced by multiple factors and exhibits significant dispersion; a single model cannot reflect the range of actual lifetime variations. Therefore, existing methods are often too absolute in their predictions, making them unsuitable for equipment with large lifetime dispersion, thus affecting the accuracy and reliability of the predictions.

[0007] In summary, existing lifetime prediction methods have shortcomings when dealing with typical defects in oil-paper insulation, including inapplicability to defect analysis, neglect of the influence of discharge behavior, and lack of statistical analysis. Therefore, developing a remaining lifetime prediction method that can comprehensively consider defects, discharge behavior, and statistical analysis is of great significance. Summary of the Invention

[0008] To address the problems existing in the prior art, the purpose of this invention is to provide a method for estimating the remaining life of typical defects in oil-paper insulation, extracting effective characteristic quantities to characterize the insulation damage rate of oil-filled equipment, determining the statistical relationship between the insulation damage rate and the percentage of lost life, and thereby determining the range of the percentage of lost life at the current moment, providing a reference for estimating the remaining life of insulation in oil-filled equipment.

[0009] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides the following technical solution:

[0010] A method for estimating the remaining life of a typical defect in oil-paper insulation includes the following steps:

[0011] S100: Build a partial discharge acquisition system, determine the statistical relationship between insulation damage rate and percentage of lost life through discharge experiments on typical defects in oil-paper insulation, and establish an estimation model for the remaining life of typical defects in oil-paper insulation.

[0012] S200: Perform partial discharge detection on the target equipment or target model, obtain relevant discharge data, calculate the insulation damage rate, and obtain the estimated range of the remaining life of the target equipment or target model by establishing a typical defect remaining life estimation model for oil-paper insulation.

[0013] Furthermore, the target equipment includes, but is not limited to, oil-paper insulated equipment such as transformers and reactors; the target model includes, but is not limited to, laboratory discharge models such as scaled-down models and abstract models; the detection methods used by the partial discharge acquisition system include, but are not limited to, pulse current method, ultra-high frequency detection method, ultrasonic detection method and optical detection method.

[0014] Furthermore, this method is applicable to various detection scenarios, not only for laboratory models but also for online operating equipment.

[0015] Furthermore, this method is applicable to various forms of electrical stress, including insulation life estimation under different voltage frequencies and voltage waveforms.

[0016] Furthermore, in step S100, the process of establishing the remaining life estimation model for typical defects in oil-paper insulation is as follows:

[0017] S101: Install a partial discharge acquisition system for the target device or target model;

[0018] S102: Under the same electrical stress, multiple discharge experiments of the same type of defect were conducted on the typical defect model of oil-paper insulation. The partial discharge acquisition system continuously acquired and stored all discharge data.

[0019] S103: Utilizing the a% characteristic discharge total amplitude Q C,a% and a% small amplitude discharge total amplitude Q L,a% Characteristic coefficients R are constructed, and the consistency of characteristic coefficients R in multiple discharge data of the same type of defect under the same electrical stress is used to screen out abnormal discharge data.

[0020] S104: Select the appropriate statistical duration T h , based on the statistical duration T h Divide the process into time periods and calculate the total discharge amplitude for each time period during the insulation damage stage. Determine the historical maximum total discharge amplitude use and The ratios were used to construct the insulation damage rate for each time period. The highest total discharge amplitude in history was observed. Using the time period as the starting point, plot the insulation damage rate for each experiment. The curve showing the relationship between discharge time t and discharge time t;

[0021] S105: Insulation damage rate of each experiment based on the insulation failure endpoint. The relationship curve between the insulation damage rate and the discharge time t was normalized to obtain the insulation damage rate. Percentage of insulation loss life Relationship curve;

[0022] S106: Insulation damage rate of each experiment Percentage of insulation loss life The relationship curves are plotted on the same coordinate axis, and the upper and lower boundary lines of the curves are drawn to obtain the remaining life estimation model for typical defects in oil-paper insulation.

[0023] Furthermore, in step S102, the defect discharge experiment ends with the breakdown of a typical defect in the oil-paper insulation, and the stress applied includes constant stress, step stress, and sequential stress.

[0024] Furthermore, in step S103, the a% characteristic discharge total amplitude Q C,a% Defined as the sum of amplitude data within a% range above and below the average discharge amplitude of all discharges during a single defect discharge experiment; the total amplitude of the a% small amplitude discharge Q is... L,a% Defined as the sum of amplitude data below the average discharge amplitude of 1+a%; the characteristic coefficient R is defined as the ratio of the 15% characteristic discharge to the total amplitude of small-amplitude discharges.

[0025]

[0026] The consistency of the characteristic coefficient R is reflected in the small dispersion coefficient and low fluctuation level of the characteristic coefficient R in multiple defect discharge experiments under the same conditions.

[0027] Furthermore, in step S104, an appropriate statistical duration T is set. h The value of the balance T h The dispersion of excessively small single discharge events leads to instability in the prediction results, and T h Excessive values ​​can lead to lag in prediction results; the specific value needs to be set based on the model parameters of the target equipment or model and the actual operating conditions.

[0028] Furthermore, in step S104, the insulation damage rate for each time period... Defined as:

[0029]

[0030] In the formula, For the i-th statistical duration T h The total discharge amplitude within the divided time intervals; In this experiment The historical maximum value.

[0031] Furthermore, in step S105, the insulation failure endpoint is defined as the occurrence of the historical maximum total discharge amplitude. The time period is the starting point of the timing and the end point of the electrical aging of the defect discharge experiment.

[0032] Furthermore, in step S105, the remaining life estimation model for typical defects in oil-paper insulation obtained by normalizing the insulation failure endpoint has an average insulation failure time. For each percentage of lost life, the specific value of the remaining life range of insulation can be obtained by combining the average insulation failure time of the model.

[0033] Furthermore, in step S200, the estimation process for obtaining the estimated range of the remaining lifetime of the target device or target model is as follows:

[0034] S201: Use a partial discharge acquisition system to acquire data, and set the tracer step size T. p Calculate the discharge characteristic value F within the tracer interval;

[0035] S202: Set data storage threshold value F t When the discharge characteristic value F in the tracer interval during the acquisition process exceeds the data storage threshold value F t When the partial discharge acquisition system switches to continuous acquisition and data storage mode, proceed to step S203; otherwise, return to step S201.

[0036] S203: The partial discharge acquisition system continuously acquires and stores all discharge data, including the historical maximum total discharge amplitude. The discharge time is taken as the start of the time, and the duration T is used for statistical analysis. h Divide the time interval and calculate the total discharge amplitude within the i-th time interval.

[0037] S204: Set the historical maximum total discharge amplitude when i=1 Compare the total discharge amplitude during the i-th time interval. Compared with the historical maximum total discharge amplitude The magnitude of the value, if Proceed to step S205; otherwise, update the historical maximum total discharge amplitude. And return to step S203;

[0038] S205: Based on the total discharge amplitude at each time point during the insulation damage stage. and the historical maximum total discharge amplitude The ratio is used to calculate the insulation damage rate.

[0039] S206: Determine the corresponding damage rate based on the remaining life estimation model for typical defects in oil-paper insulation. The following is the range of insulation loss lifetime percentages. This allows us to obtain an estimate of the remaining lifespan.

[0040] Furthermore, the discharge characteristic value F includes, but is not limited to, the total number of discharges per unit time, the average discharge amplitude, and the amount of acetylene generated. The unit time is defined in ways including, but not limited to, per second, per minute, and per power frequency cycle.

[0041] Furthermore, the data storage threshold value F t Corresponding to the discharge characteristic value F, by reasonably setting the appropriate F t The numerical value is used to determine the development of partial discharge in the insulation, thereby changing the working mode of the partial discharge instrument to effectively collect discharge data during the damage stage; data storage threshold value F t The specific values ​​need to be set based on the design parameters of the target equipment or target model and the actual operating conditions.

[0042] Furthermore, it allows for the measurement of the historical maximum total discharge amplitude. During the judgment and update process, a maximum overflow percentage α% is set for it, which does not exceed... The situation will not be updated, and an insulation damage rate of less than 0 is also allowed.

[0043] The beneficial effects achieved by this invention are as follows: The method of this invention fully considers the damaging effect of partial discharge development on insulation under typical defects in oil-paper insulation, and the lifetime estimation results provided are more applicable to the actual operation of oil-filled equipment. Based on the physical mechanism of partial discharge, this invention discretizes the cumulative total amplitude of discharge events over a continuous time period at intervals of unit statistical duration, replacing the traditional electrical aging model construction method that uses continuous action factors such as voltage and electric field strength as characteristic quantities. This is more conducive to equivalently simulating the cumulative damage to insulation on a time scale caused by discrete discharge events. This invention statistically analyzes the partial discharge behavior and insulation loss lifetime under defect conditions, constructing a remaining lifetime estimation model for typical defects in oil-paper insulation based on the statistical relationship between insulation damage rate and percentage loss lifetime, which is applicable to lifetime prediction with high dispersion. The data sources used to construct the insulation damage rate in this invention are extensive, and can all be obtained through various mature local measurement techniques already developed in engineering applications, making the acquisition relatively easy and highly operable. Attached Figure Description

[0044] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the method for implementing the present invention.

[0045] Figure 2 It represents the numerical relationship between the a% characteristic discharge total amplitude and the 15% characteristic discharge total amplitude.

[0046] Figure 3 It is the statistical duration T h Impact on model results.

[0047] Figure 4a It is the insulation damage rate under simulated inter-plate electrical stress in the valve-side winding of the YYG converter transformer. Percentage of lost life Statistical relationships.

[0048] Figure 4b It simulates the insulation damage rate under inter-plate electrical stress in the valve-side winding of the YYD converter transformer. Percentage of lost life Statistical relationships. Detailed Implementation

[0049] The present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. The following embodiments are only used to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, and should not be used to limit the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0050] like Figure 1 As shown, a method for estimating the remaining life of a typical defect in oil-paper insulation includes the following steps:

[0051] S100: Build a partial discharge acquisition system, determine the statistical relationship between insulation damage rate and percentage of lost life through discharge experiments on typical defects in oil-paper insulation, and establish an estimation model for the remaining life of typical defects in oil-paper insulation.

[0052] S200: Perform partial discharge detection on the target equipment or target model, obtain relevant discharge data, calculate the insulation damage rate, and obtain the estimated range of the remaining life of the target equipment or target model by establishing a typical defect remaining life estimation model for oil-paper insulation.

[0053] Furthermore, in step S100, the process of establishing the remaining life estimation model for typical defects in oil-paper insulation is as follows:

[0054] S101: Install a partial discharge acquisition system for the target device or target model;

[0055] S102: Under the same electrical stress, multiple discharge experiments of the same type of defect were conducted on the typical defect model of oil-paper insulation. The partial discharge acquisition system continuously acquired and stored all discharge data.

[0056] S103: Utilizing the a% characteristic discharge total amplitude Q C,a% and a% small amplitude discharge total amplitude Q L,a% Characteristic coefficients R are constructed, and the consistency of characteristic coefficients R in multiple discharge data of the same type of defect under the same electrical stress is used to screen out abnormal discharge data.

[0057] S104: Select the appropriate statistical duration T h , based on the statistical duration T h Divide the process into time periods and calculate the total discharge amplitude for each time period during the insulation damage stage. Determine the historical maximum total discharge amplitude use and The ratios were used to construct the insulation damage rate for each time period. The highest total discharge amplitude in history was observed. Using the time period as the starting point, plot the insulation damage rate for each experiment. The curve showing the relationship between discharge time t and discharge time t;

[0058] S105: Insulation damage rate of each experiment based on the insulation failure endpoint. The relationship curve between the insulation damage rate and the discharge time t was normalized to obtain the insulation damage rate. Percentage of insulation loss life Relationship curve;

[0059] S106: Insulation damage rate of each experiment Percentage of insulation loss life The relationship curves are plotted on the same coordinate axis, and the upper and lower boundary lines of the curves are drawn to obtain the remaining life estimation model for typical defects in oil-paper insulation.

[0060] Furthermore, in step S200, the estimation process for obtaining the estimated range of the remaining lifetime of the target device or target model is as follows:

[0061] S201: Use a partial discharge acquisition system to acquire data, and set the tracer step size T. p Calculate the discharge characteristic value F within the tracer interval;

[0062] S202: Set data storage threshold value F t When the discharge characteristic value F within the tracer interval exceeds the data storage threshold F during the acquisition process... t When the partial discharge acquisition system switches to continuous acquisition and data storage mode, proceed to step S203; otherwise, return to step S201.

[0063] S203: The partial discharge acquisition system continuously acquires and stores all discharge data, including the historical maximum total discharge amplitude. The discharge time is taken as the start of the time, and the duration T is used for statistical analysis. h Divide the time interval and calculate the total discharge amplitude within the i-th time interval.

[0064] S204: Set the historical maximum total discharge amplitude when i=1 Compare the total discharge amplitude during the i-th time interval. Compared with the historical maximum total discharge amplitude The magnitude of the value, if Proceed to step S205; otherwise, update the historical maximum total discharge amplitude. And return to step S203;

[0065] S205: Based on the total discharge amplitude at each time point during the insulation damage stage. and the historical maximum total discharge amplitude The ratio is used to calculate the insulation damage rate.

[0066] S206: Determine the corresponding damage rate based on the remaining life estimation model for typical defects in oil-paper insulation. The following is the range of insulation loss lifetime percentages. This allows us to obtain an estimate of the remaining lifespan.

[0067] Example

[0068] The feasibility of the method of this invention is illustrated by taking the inter-plate electrical stress waveform of the converter transformer valve-side winding and the sinusoidal voltage waveforms of different frequencies output from the simulation circuit model of an ±800kV DC transmission system as examples. Based on the method of this invention, multiple sets of partial discharge experiments on the tip defects of oil-paper insulation were conducted under different electrical stress waveforms, such as... Figure 2 As shown, experimental data of the same electrical stress waveform exhibit common characteristics statistically, with the total amplitude Q of each percentage characteristic discharge being... C,a% There is a certain linear relationship between them, and data that does not conform to the characteristics are considered outliers and are filtered out using the feature coefficient R.

[0069] Figure 3 Nine different statistical durations T were displayed. h Insulation damage rate under numerical values Percentage of lost life The correspondence is such that the five broken lines under the same statistical duration represent the results of five repeated experiments on the discharge of typical defects in oil-paper insulation. For example... Figure 3 As shown, the statistical duration T in the method of this invention h The choice of T will affect the model results. h If the value is too small, the final prediction result will be affected by the dispersion of single discharge events, resulting in poor stability; T h If the value is too large, the damage characteristics of the insulation damage stage cannot be characterized in detail, and the final prediction result will have a large hysteresis. The specific value is related to the transformer model parameters and actual operating conditions. In this example, T is taken as... h =2 seconds for best results.

[0070] According to the method of the present invention, the maximum total discharge amplitude in history is obtained. The time period is used as the starting point for characterizing the onset of damage. The total discharge amplitude data thereafter is calculated to obtain the insulation damage rate for each time interval. On a time scale, the relationship between damage rate and time in multiple experiments is normalized using the insulation failure endpoint of each experiment, and plotted on the same coordinate axis, such as... Figure 4a and Figure 4b As shown in the figure, the five broken lines represent the data results of five repeated discharge experiments under the simulated inter-plate electrical stress of the valve-side windings of the YYG and YYD converter transformers. Their boundary lines can directly characterize the insulation damage rate. and percentage of lost life The relationship between them, among which Figure 4a The average insulation failure time of the model under simulated YYG electrical stress is shown to be 52.0 s. Figure 4b The average insulation failure time of the model under simulated YYD electrical stress is 74.8 s.

[0071] In this embodiment, the unit statistical time T h Take 2 seconds, the historical maximum total discharge amplitude The initial value is set to 0kV, the working cycle T of the partial discharge detector is set to 1min, the discharge characteristic value F is defined as the discharge repetition rate in seconds, and the data storage threshold value F is set to... t The value is set to 100. Based on several experimental results, the predictions made by the method of this invention are consistent with the actual results.

Claims

1. An oil-paper insulation typical defect residual life estimation method, characterized in that, The method comprises the following steps: S100: build a partial discharge collection system, determine the statistical relationship between the insulation damage rate and the loss life percentage through oil-paper insulation typical defect discharge experiments, and establish an oil-paper insulation typical defect residual life estimation model; S200: perform partial discharge detection on a target device or a target model, obtain relevant discharge data, calculate the insulation damage rate, and obtain an estimation range of the residual life of the target device or the target model through the established oil-paper insulation typical defect residual life estimation model; In step S100, the establishment process of the oil-paper insulation typical defect residual life estimation model is as follows: S101: for a target device or a target model, dispose a partial discharge collection system; S102: perform multiple same-type defect discharge experiments on the oil-paper insulation typical defect model under the same electric stress form, and continuously collect and store all discharge data by the partial discharge collection system; S103: utilize a %characteristic discharge total amplitude and a %small amplitude discharge total amplitude construct characteristic coefficient , utilize the consistency of the characteristic coefficient of the discharge data of multiple same type defects under the same electric stress form to screen out abnormal discharge data; S104: selecting the adapted statistical time length , the statistical time length , dividing the time period, calculating the total discharge amplitude of each time period of the insulation damage stage , determining the historical maximum total discharge amplitude , using and ratio to construct the insulation damage rate of each time period ; The time period in which the maximum discharge total amplitude appears in history is taken as the timing starting point, and the curves of insulation damage rate of each experiment versus discharge time are drawn. The time period in which the maximum discharge total amplitude appears in history is taken as the timing starting point, and the curves of insulation damage rate of each experiment versus discharge time are drawn.​​ S105: The insulation damage rate of each experiment is normalized with the insulation failure end point to obtain the insulation damage rate versus insulation loss life percentage curve versus discharge time curve ; and versus insulation loss life percentage curve ; and S106: Insulation damage rate of each experiment Percentage of insulation loss life The relationship curves are plotted on the same coordinate axis, and the upper and lower boundary lines of the curves are drawn to obtain the remaining life estimation model for typical defects in oil-paper insulation. In step S103, the a characteristic discharge total amplitude is defined as the sum of amplitude data within an upper and lower range of the average discharge amplitude of all discharges during a single defect discharge experiment. range. The a Total amplitude of small amplitude discharges defined as the sum of amplitude data below the average discharge amplitude; the characteristic coefficient defined as the ratio of the 15% characteristic discharge to the total amplitude of small amplitude discharges: (1) The characteristic coefficient The consistency of the characteristic coefficient is embodied as the characteristic coefficient of multiple defect discharge experiments under the same condition The dispersion coefficient is small and the fluctuation level is low. In step S104, the insulation deterioration rate of each time period is defined as: (2) In the formula, is the total amplitude of the discharge in the time interval divided into statistical time lengths ; is the historical maximum value in the experiment ; and is the historical maximum value in the experiment​ In step S200, the estimation process of obtaining the estimation range of the residual life of the target device or the target model is as follows: S201: data acquisition is performed using a partial discharge acquisition system, and a tracking step size is set , and a discharge characteristic value in the tracking interval is calculated ; S202: setting a data storage threshold value When the discharge characteristic value in the trace interval during the acquisition process exceeds the data storage threshold value , the partial discharge acquisition system enters the continuous acquisition and data storage mode, and enters step S203, otherwise, return to step S201; S203: The partial discharge collection system continuously collects and stores all discharge data, and stores the maximum discharge total amplitude at the time of discharge as the time start, and divides the time period, calculates the discharge total amplitude in the first time interval ;​​​ S204: Settings Maximum total discharge amplitude in history Comparison of the first Total discharge amplitude within each time interval Compared with the historical maximum total discharge amplitude The magnitude of the value, if Proceed to step S205; otherwise, update the historical maximum total discharge amplitude. and return to step S203; S205: calculate the insulation damage rate according to the ratio of the total discharge amplitude of each time period in the insulation damage stage to the historical maximum total discharge amplitude ;​​ S206: Determine the corresponding damage rate according to the oil-paper insulation typical defect residual life estimation model under the insulation loss life percentage range , so as to obtain the estimation range of the residual life.

2. The method of estimating the remaining life of a typical defect of oil paper insulation according to claim 1, wherein The target device comprises a transformer, a reactor, and other oil-paper insulation devices, and the target model comprises a scaled-down model and an abstract model laboratory discharge model; the detection method of the partial discharge collection system comprises a pulse current method, an ultrahigh frequency detection method, an ultrasonic detection method, or a light detection method.

3. The method for estimating the remaining life of typical defects in oil-paper insulation as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The method is suitable for laboratory models and online running devices.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the method is characterized by: The method is suitable for insulation life estimation under different voltage frequencies and voltage waveforms.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the method is characterized by: In step S102, the defect discharge experiment takes the breakdown of the oil-paper insulation typical defect as the experiment endpoint, and the stress application mode comprises constant stress, step stress, and sequential stress.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the method is characterized by: In step S104, the dispersion of single discharge events is balanced by setting the value of the adapted statistical time length too small leads to instability of the prediction result, and too large leads to the effect of hysteresis of the prediction result, the specific value of which needs to be set in combination with the model parameters and actual operation of the target device or target model.​ 7. The method of estimating the remaining life of an oil-paper insulation typical defect according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S105, the insulation failure end point is defined as the time period in which the historical maximum discharge total amplitude occurs as the timing starting point, and the electrical aging termination time of the defect discharge experiment.

8. The method of estimating the remaining life of an oil-paper insulation typical defect according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S105, the oil-paper insulation typical defect residual life estimation model obtained based on the normalized insulation failure endpoint has an average insulation failure time, and for each loss life percentage, the specific value of the insulation residual life range can be obtained in combination with the average insulation failure time of the model.

9. The method of estimating the residual life of an oil-paper insulation typical defect according to claim 1, characterized in that, The discharge characteristic value The discharge characteristic value includes the total number of discharges per unit time, the average discharge amplitude, and the amount of acetylene generated, wherein the definition of the unit time is per second, per minute, or per power frequency cycle.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the method is a method of estimating the remaining life of an oil-paper insulation typical defect, characterized by, The data storage threshold value corresponding to the discharge characteristic value , by setting the appropriate value, to determine the development of partial discharge insulation, so as to change the working mode of the partial discharge instrument, and effectively collect the discharge data of the damage stage; The specific value of the data storage threshold value needs to be set in combination with the design parameters and actual operation of the target device or target model.

11. The method of estimating the residual life of an oil-paper insulation typical defect according to claim 1, characterized in that, allows for the setting of a maximum amplitude overflow percentage for the historical maximum discharge total amplitude during the process of discriminating updates for it %, does not update for cases where the insulation damage rate is less than 0.

Citation Information

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