Method for operating a power providing network, control device for performing such a method and power providing network with such a control device

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for operating a power supply network (1), comprising at least one first power supply device (3) having a predeterminable power and at least one second power supply device (5) having a non-predeterminable power, determining an operating plan for operating the power supply network (1) at least within the prediction range on the basis of a load prediction for a load requirement of the power supply network (1) and a power prediction for the at least one second power supply device (5) for the respective same predetermined prediction range, the operating plan is additionally determined on the basis of the load-predicted load confidence interval and the power-predicted power confidence interval, such that the predicted instantaneous power for the 20-power provision network (1) is at least as large as the instantaneous upper limit of the load confidence interval at each point in time within the prediction range, and operating the power supply network (1) according to the operating plan.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to a method for operating a power supply network, a control device for carrying out such a method, and a power supply network having such a control device. Background Art

[0002] Power providing equipment typically physically tracks the load demands placed upon it.

[0003] Based on the load forecast of the power supply network for the forecast horizon, an operating plan for the power supply network can be created. However, the probability that the load forecast is actually generated accurately is usually very low. Therefore, in particular in the unfavorable case of insufficient available power of the power supply network, the probability of undesirable system characteristics in the forecast horizon due to the ungenerated load forecast is also high.

[0004] Furthermore, a power forecast for a forecast range can be created for the operation of a power supply device, in particular a photovoltaic device, with a power that cannot be predetermined, in order to create an operating plan for a power supply network having a power supply device with a power that cannot be predetermined. For the power forecast, it is true that the probability that the power forecast is actually generated accurately is very low. Therefore, in particular in the unfavorable case of insufficient available power in the power supply network, the probability that undesirable system characteristics will occur in the forecast range due to the power forecast that was not generated is very high.

[0005] A disadvantage of such methods for determining an operating plan for a power supply network is that uncertainties in load forecasts and / or power forecasts are not taken into account. Summary of the invention

[0006] The invention is therefore based on the object of providing a method for operating a power supply network, a control device for carrying out such a method, and a power supply network having such a control device, wherein the aforementioned disadvantages are at least partially eliminated, preferably avoided.

[0007] This object is achieved by providing the present technical teaching, in particular the teaching of the independent claim and the teaching of the embodiments disclosed in the dependent claims and the description.

[0008] The object is achieved in particular by the following manner, namely: a method for operating a power supply network having at least one first power supply device with a pre-determinable power and at least one second power supply device with a power that cannot be pre-determined is implemented. An operation plan is determined based on a load forecast of a load requirement of the power supply network and a power forecast of at least one second power supply device for respectively identical pre-determined forecast ranges, the operation plan being used to operate the power supply network at least within the forecast range. Here, the operation plan is additionally determined based on a load confidence interval of the load forecast and a power confidence interval of the power forecast, so that at each time point within the forecast range, the instantaneous power predicted for the power supply network - in particular, taking into account the power confidence interval - is at least as large as the instantaneous upper limit of the load confidence interval. Subsequently, the power supply network is operated according to the operation plan.

[0009] Advantageously, observation of the confidence intervals makes it possible to incorporate the uncertainties of the load and power forecasts into the determination of the operating plan and thus reduce the probability of undesirable system behaviors and / or avoid undesirable system behaviors.

[0010] P1 denotes a first power of at least one first power providing device with a predeterminable power. The first power P1 is in particular predetermined by an operating plan; the operating plan is in particular used to determine the first power P1 for a forecast range. In addition, P2 denotes a second power of at least one second power providing device with a power that cannot be predetermined, wherein the second power P2 is determined within the forecast range based on the power forecast. In addition, P Last Indicates the load requirement on the power supply network. Last,max represents the instantaneous upper limit of the load confidence interval. Additionally, P Last,min represents the instantaneous lower limit of the load confidence interval. Additionally, P 2,max represents the instantaneous upper limit of the power confidence interval. Additionally, P 2,min Represents the instantaneous lower limit of the power confidence interval.

[0011] "Instantaneous power" is understood in particular to mean a power that existed at a specific point in time in the past, currently exists, or exists for a specific point in time within a forecast range. Similarly, "instantaneous load requirement" is understood in particular to mean a load requirement that existed at a specific point in time in the past, currently exists, or exists for a specific point in time within a forecast range. Furthermore, similarly, "instantaneous upper limit" and "instantaneous lower limit" are understood in particular to mean values ​​that were selected at a specific point in time in the past, are currently selected, or are selected for a specific point in time within a forecast range.

[0012] The "predicted power" is understood in particular to be a power within the prediction range that is formed by a first power P1 within the prediction range, a second power P2 within the prediction range that is known based on the power prediction, and a power confidence interval within the prediction range. Therefore, the uncertainty of the power prediction and / or the uncertainty of the power confidence interval are also taken into account in the predicted power.

[0013] In view of the definitions of instantaneous power and predicted power, "predicted instantaneous power" is understood to be in particular the power predicted within the prediction range for a specific point in time. The predicted instantaneous power is then obtained in particular as the sum of the first power P1 and the value predicted for the second power P2, wherein the value predicted for the second power can be selected differently within the power confidence interval, in particular depending on safety requirements or other preferences.

[0014] In particular, at each time point, the instantaneous upper limit P of the load confidence interval is Last,max At least the load requirement P Last Additionally, at each time point, the instantaneous lower limit P of the load confidence interval Last,min Maximum load requirement P Last Same size.

[0015] In particular, at each time point, the instantaneous upper limit P of the power confidence interval is 2,max is at least as large as the predicted or predicted second power P2. Additionally, at each time point, the instantaneous lower limit P of the power confidence interval 2,min At most, it is as great as the predicted or predicted second power P2.

[0016] In one embodiment, a device selected from the group consisting of a generator drivably connected to a controllable drive machine, an internal combustion engine, an electric machine drivably connected to an internal combustion engine, in particular a generator set, and an energy storage device is used as at least one first power supply device with a predeterminable power.

[0017] In one embodiment, a heat storage device is used as the energy storage device.

[0018] As an alternative or in addition, a mechanical storage device is used as the energy storage device, which is selected from the group consisting of a flywheel storage device, a spring device, a pump storage device, a compressed air storage device and a lifting storage device.

[0019] As an alternative or in addition, an electrical storage device is used as the energy storage device, which is selected from the group consisting of batteries, in particular accumulators, and capacitors.

[0020] In one embodiment, a photovoltaic system is used as the at least one second power supply device with a power that cannot be predetermined. Alternatively or additionally, a wind power plant is used as the at least one second power supply device with a power that cannot be predetermined. Alternatively or additionally, a hydropower plant is used as the at least one second power supply device with a power that cannot be predetermined.

[0021] In the context of the present technical teaching, a “forecast horizon” is understood to be, in particular, a predetermined time period T starting from the instantaneous time t0 up to a future time t1 = t0 +T.

[0022] In the context of the present technical teaching, a "load confidence interval" is understood in particular to be a value range which includes the actually occurring load demand on the power supply network with a determined, in particular predeterminable probability. In particular, the load confidence interval is determined based on a load forecast and a positive and / or negative load difference of the load forecast. In particular, positive and / or negative load difference values, which are in particular predetermined and / or determined from at least one histogram, are added to the load forecast in order to determine the load confidence interval. Therefore, for the upper and lower limits of the load confidence interval, the equation applies in particular:

[0023] P Last,max (t) = P Last (t)+P Last,Diff +(t)

[0024] P Last,min (t) = P Last (t)+P Last,Diff -(t)

[0025] Among them, P Last，Diff+ Indicates a positive load difference and is represented by P Last，Diff- Indicates a negative load difference.

[0026] In the context of the current technical teaching, a "power confidence interval" is understood in particular to be a value range that includes the power actually provided by the power supply network with a determined, in particular predeterminable probability. In particular, the power confidence interval is determined based on a power forecast and positive and / or negative power difference values ​​of the power forecast. In particular, positive and / or negative power difference values, which are in particular predetermined and / or determined from at least one histogram, are added to the power forecast in order to determine the power confidence interval. Therefore, for the upper and lower limits of the power confidence interval, the equation applies in particular:

[0027] P 2，max (t) = P2(t) + P 2，Diff+ (t)

[0028] P 2，min(t) = P2(t) + P 2，Diff- (t)

[0029] Among them, P 2,Diff+ Indicates a positive power difference and is represented by P 2，Diff- Indicates a negative power difference.

[0030] In one design, in order to determine the load confidence interval, a positive load difference value is assigned to at least one time point, preferably multiple time points, within the prediction range. As an alternative or in addition, in order to determine the load confidence interval, a negative load difference value is assigned to at least one time point, preferably multiple time points, within the prediction range. Additionally, in order to determine the power confidence interval, a positive power difference value is assigned to at least one time point, preferably multiple time points, within the prediction range. As an alternative or in addition, in order to determine the power confidence interval, a negative power difference value is assigned to at least one time point, preferably multiple time points, within the prediction range. Preferably, if the first time point and the second time point have a time interval of 168 hours, in particular 7 days, in particular 24 hours and / or a multiple of 168 hours, in particular 7 days, in particular 24 hours, the positive and / or negative difference values ​​respectively assigned to the first time point and the second time point are the same.

[0031] The method can be run continuously or in a time-controlled manner, in particular with a predetermined cycle time. If the method is run in a time-controlled manner, each cycle in the prediction range can be assigned an independent value for the instantaneous load requirement, the instantaneous power and / or the confidence interval. However, it is also possible to determine these values ​​only for larger time intervals, each of which includes a plurality of cycles. The corresponding values ​​can then remain constant within the larger time interval, or they can be interpolated for individual cycles within the larger time interval.

[0032] In particular, the load forecast P Last (t) at least for the forecast range, the load element, the operator of the power supply network or the operator of the upper supply network is provided to the power supply network. Alternatively, the load forecast P is obtained based on historical load trends. Last (t).

[0033] In particular, a power forecast P2(t) is provided to the power supply network at least for the forecast range. In particular, the power forecast P2(t) is obtained based on historical power trends and / or based on weather forecasts, in particular based on predicted wind duration or sunshine duration.

[0034] In one design solution, the operation plan is determined so that the first power P1 and the instantaneous upper limit P of the power confidence interval are 2，max The sum of the components is at least equal to the instantaneous upper limit P of the load confidence interval at each time point in the forecast range.Last，max are the same size, and therefore in particular for all time points t in the interval [t0; t1] the equation is satisfied:

[0035] P1(t)+P 2，max (t)≥P Last，max (t)

[0036] This allows, in particular, cost-effective operation of the power supply network while accepting a certain residual risk that the required load may not be applied at least temporarily. p (t) in this case by:

[0037] P p (t) = P1(t) + P 2，max (t)

[0038] Come get.

[0039] In another embodiment, the operation plan is determined so that the sum of the first power P1 and the second power P2 is at least equal to the instantaneous upper limit P of the load confidence interval at each time point in the prediction range. Last，max are the same size, and therefore the equation is satisfied for all time points t in the interval [t0; t1]:

[0040] P1(t)+P2(t)≥P Last，max (t)

[0041] This embodiment represents, in particular, a compromise between cost-effective operation of the power supply network and risk minimization with regard to meeting the required load. The predicted instantaneous power P p (t) in this case by:

[0042] P p (t) = P1(t) + P2(t)

[0043] Come get.

[0044] According to a further development of the invention, it is provided that the power provided instantaneously by the power supply network is calculated as the sum of the instantaneous lower limit of the power confidence interval and the instantaneous power of at least one first power supply device. This enables the load requirements to be met particularly reliably at every point in time within the forecast range.

[0045] In particular, the operation plan is determined so that the first power P1 and the instantaneous lower limit P of the power confidence interval are 2，min The sum of the components is at least equal to the instantaneous upper limit P of the load confidence interval at each time point in the forecast range. Last，max are the same size, and therefore the equation is satisfied for all time points t in the interval [t0; t1]:

[0046] P1(t)+P 2，min (t)≥P Last，max (t)

[0047] The predicted instantaneous power P p (t) in this case by:

[0048] P p (t) = P1(t) + P 2，min (t)

[0049] Come get.

[0050] According to a development of the invention, it is provided that the operating plan is additionally determined as a function of at least one auxiliary condition.

[0051] In particular, by means of the at least one auxiliary condition it is possible to appropriately provide the instantaneous power of the power providing network by means of the first power of the at least one first power providing device and the second power of the at least one second power providing device.

[0052] In one embodiment, the following auxiliary condition is considered as at least one auxiliary condition, which is selected from a minimum first power P which is in particular variable over time. 1,min (t), in particular a time-variable maximum first power P 1，max (t), minimum time variation of the first power and the maximum time variation of the first power The group class that is composed.

[0053] According to a further development of the invention, it is provided that as at least one auxiliary condition the costs of the power supply network are minimized. Thus, it is advantageously possible to operate the power supply network as efficiently and / or economically as possible.

[0054] In particular, the cost function is minimized, where the cost function is denoted by K.

[0055] In one design solution, the operating cost of the power supply network is obtained as the cost of the power supply network. Therefore, based on the operating cost k of at least one first power supply device b，1 and the operating cost k of at least one second power providing device b，2 To obtain a cost function K, the operating costs also include, in particular, the maintenance costs of the power supply network. The cost function thus applies:

[0056] K=k b，1 P1+k b，2 P2.

[0057] In another embodiment, the energy cost of the power supply network is obtained as the cost of the power supply network. Therefore, the cost function K is based on the energy cost k of the at least one first power supply device. e，1 , the energy cost k of at least one second power providing device e，2 and an additional term Z, wherein the additional term Z includes in particular the maintenance costs of the power supply network. Therefore, the cost function applies:

[0058] K=k e，1 P1+k e，2 P2+Z(P1,P2).

[0059] According to a further development of the invention, provision is made for the operating plan to be determined by means of robust optimization. Robust optimization methods are advantageously particularly suitable for determining an operating plan based on uncertainties in the form of load confidence intervals and / or power confidence intervals.

[0060] According to a further development of the invention, it is provided that at least one confidence interval selected from the group consisting of a load confidence interval and a power confidence interval is determined from historical values—for the load or the power.

[0061] According to an improved scheme of the present invention, it is provided that a deviation of a historical value from a historical value forecast assigned to the historical value is determined, wherein a lower limit and an upper limit of at least one confidence interval are determined based on the determined deviation, so that for a predetermined proportion of the deviation, the sum of the corresponding deviation and the load forecast and / or the power forecast lies in the corresponding confidence interval.

[0062] In particular, the historical values ​​of a specific parameter, in particular the load requirement and / or the second power, have a certain time point, a predicted value of the parameter and an actual value of the parameter. In particular, positive and / or negative difference values, in particular load difference values ​​and / or power difference values, are determined based on at least one histogram, preferably a plurality of histograms, of the historical values.

[0063] In one design, multiple historical values ​​of the load requirements, in particular multiple determined deviations of the load requirements, are entered into exactly one load requirement histogram, wherein the exactly one load requirement histogram is used to determine a load confidence interval within a prediction range. As an alternative or in addition, multiple historical values ​​of the second power, in particular multiple determined deviations of the second power, are entered into exactly one power histogram, wherein the exactly one power histogram is used to determine a power confidence interval within a prediction range. In particular, for at least one histogram time point, a histogram of deviations of the predicted values ​​arbitrarily set to zero is created at a determined time point that is the same as the corresponding histogram time point. As the histogram time point, for example, 12:00 noon, in particular 12:00 noon on a predetermined working day, can be selected, wherein the deviation values ​​of multiple days are entered into the histogram. In particular, the histogram then includes information about the frequency of the determined deviations of the predicted values ​​at the histogram time points.

[0064] In another design, a histogram is created for each of a plurality of histogram time points. In particular, the historical values ​​are recorded in exactly one histogram, preferably in a histogram in which the assigned histogram time point is identical to the determined time point of the historical values. In particular, the histogram time point is a moment and / or a working day. As an alternative or additional scheme, the histogram time point is assigned to a season, in particular winter, spring, summer and autumn. As an alternative or additional scheme, the histogram time point is in particular assigned to an event, in particular a festival, in particular Christmas, Easter, Pentecost and non-holidays or vacation time and non-vacation time. If the histogram time point is not a specific moment, but is assigned to a longer time period, in particular, the predicted values ​​and deviations present in the time period are appropriately settled, in particular, averaged, so as to determine the entries of the histogram. Alternatively, a reference time point in a longer time period is determined as the histogram time point.

[0065] In particular, two histogram time points that follow one another have a time interval of at least 5 minutes, in particular at least 10 minutes, in particular at least 15 minutes to a maximum of 12 hours, in particular to a maximum of 5 hours, in particular to a maximum of 2 hours, in particular to a maximum of one hour, in particular to a maximum of 30 minutes. Therefore, it is advantageously possible to create a histogram for a plurality of histogram time points, in particular in a day, respectively, and thereby determine the confidence interval associated with the histogram time point. If the time point in the interval [t0; t1] corresponds to one of the histogram time points, the histogram of the corresponding histogram time point is used for the time point. If the time point in the interval [t0; t1] does not correspond to one of the histogram time points, the histogram of the histogram time point immediately before in time is used for the time point or the interpolation between the histogram of the histogram of the histogram time point immediately before in time and the histogram of the histogram time point immediately after in time is used.

[0066] In particular, for each parameter, ie, on the one hand, for the load requirement and on the other hand for the second power, a corresponding histogram is plotted—as described above and below—so that an associated confidence interval is determined.

[0067] In particular, the first deviation, in particular the positive value, and the second deviation, in particular the negative value, are selected in the corresponding histogram such that a predetermined ratio of the determined deviations corresponding to the predetermined probability lies between the first deviation and the second deviation. The first deviation is then used in particular as a positive load difference value or a positive power difference value. The second deviation is correspondingly used as a negative load difference value or a negative power difference value.

[0068] In particular, at least 50% to a maximum of 100%, preferably 60%, preferably 70%, preferably 75%, preferably 80%, preferably 90%, preferably 92%, preferably 94%, preferably 95%, preferably 96%, preferably 98%, preferably 99% come into consideration as the predetermined ratio.

[0069] In particular, the first deviation and the second deviation are obtained by means of calculating percentiles of the deviation. In particular, as the second deviation, a deviation value assigned to the u percentile is considered, wherein as the parameter u, a value of at least 0.01 to a maximum of 0.49, preferably 0.05, preferably 0.1, preferably 0.15, preferably 0.2, preferably 0.25, preferably 0.3, preferably 0.35, preferably 0.4, preferably 0.45 is considered. As an alternative or in addition, as the first deviation, in particular, a deviation value assigned to the o percentile is considered, wherein as the parameter o, a value of at least 0.51 to a maximum of 0.99, preferably 0.55, preferably 0.6, preferably 0.65, preferably 0.7, preferably 0.75, preferably 0.8, preferably 0.85, preferably 0.9, preferably 0.95 is considered. In particular, the parameters u and o are selected so that a predetermined ratio is obtained. In particular, the parameters u and o are selected symmetrically with respect to the value 0.5, so that the formula applies

[0070] |u-0,5|=|o-0,5|

[0071] In particular, the median is called the 0.5 percentile.

[0072] According to a development of the invention, it is provided that the predetermined ratio is selected as a function of requirement parameters selected in particular from user requirements, the importance of the device or application to be supplied with power, and a system importance value.

[0073] In one embodiment, the predetermined ratio is selected as a function of the system importance value, that is, the system importance of the device to be supplied with power. In particular, the greater the system importance of the continuous power supply of the device to be supplied with power, the greater the predetermined ratio is selected. In particular, the predetermined ratio is selected to be greater in a hospital to be supplied with power than in a residence to be supplied with power.

[0074] The object is also achieved in that a control device for a power supply network is realized, wherein the control device is set up to carry out the method according to the invention or the method according to one or more of the embodiments described above. The control device is preferably designed as a computing device, particularly preferably as a computer or as a controller, in particular as a controller of the power supply network. In conjunction with the control device, in particular the advantages already explained in conjunction with the method result.

[0075] The control device is preferably designed to be operatively connected to at least one first power supply device with a predeterminable power and at least one second power supply device with a non-predeterminable power and to control them accordingly.

[0076] The object is also achieved by providing a power supply network having at least one first power supply device with a predeterminable power, at least one second power supply device with a non-predeterminable power, and a control device according to the invention or a control device according to one or more of the embodiments described above. In conjunction with the power supply network, in particular the advantages already explained in conjunction with the method and the control device result.

[0077] The control device is operatively connected to at least one first power supply device with a predeterminable power and to at least one second power supply device with a non-predeterminable power and is designed to control them accordingly. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0078] The present invention will be explained in more detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0079] Figure 1 A schematic diagram showing an embodiment of a power supply network is shown,

[0080] Figure 2 A flow chart of an embodiment of a method for operating a power supply network is shown, and

[0081] Figure 3 A flow chart of one embodiment for determining confidence intervals from historical values ​​is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0082] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of an exemplary embodiment of a power supply network 1 is shown.

[0083] The power supply network 1 has at least one first power supply device 3 with a predeterminable power and at least one second power supply device 5 with a non-predeterminable power. The power supply network 1 also has a control device 7 .

[0084] The control device 7 is operatively connected to at least one first power supply device 3 with a predeterminable power and to at least one second power supply device 5 with a non-predeterminable power and is configured to control them accordingly. The control device 7 is also configured to carry out a method for operating a power supply network 1 and to receive an operating plan for operating the power supply network 1, wherein the power supply network 1 preferably receives a load request from a device 9. The method is described below according to Figure 2 Let's explain in more detail.

[0085] Figure 2 A flow chart of an exemplary embodiment of a method for operating a power supply network 1 is shown.

[0086] In a first step S1 , a load forecast for the load requirement of the power supply network 1 is predefined for a predetermined forecast horizon.

[0087] In a second step S2, a load confidence interval for the load forecast is predefined and / or determined. Figure 3 The method used to determine the confidence interval for the load is explained in more detail.

[0088] In a third step S3 , a power forecast for at least one second power providing device 5 with a power that cannot be predefined is predefined for a predefined forecast range.

[0089] In a fourth step S4, a power confidence interval for the power prediction is predefined and / or determined. Figure 3 The method used to determine the power confidence interval is explained in more detail.

[0090] In particular, the first step S1 is performed before the third step S3 in terms of time. Alternatively, the third step S3 is performed before the first step S1 in terms of time. Alternatively, the first step S1 and the third step S3 are performed simultaneously.

[0091] In particular, the second step S2 is performed temporally after the first step S1. Alternatively, the first step S1 and the second step S2 are performed simultaneously.

[0092] In particular, the fourth step S4 is performed temporally after the third step S3. Alternatively, the third step S3 and the fourth step S4 are performed simultaneously.

[0093] Optionally, a load confidence interval for the load forecast is determined in a second step S2 from the historical load requirements. Preferably, a deviation of the historical load requirements from the load forecast assigned to the historical load requirements is determined, wherein a lower limit and an upper limit of the load confidence interval are determined based on the determined deviation, so that for a predetermined ratio of the deviation, the sum of the corresponding deviation and the load forecast and / or the power forecast lies in the corresponding confidence interval. In particular, the predetermined ratio is selected based on a requirement parameter. Preferably, the requirement parameter is a user demand and / or an importance and / or system importance value of the device or application to be supplied with power.

[0094] Optionally, a power confidence interval of the power forecast is determined in a third step S4 from the historical power of at least one second power providing device 5. Preferably, a deviation of the historical power from the power forecast assigned to the historical power is determined, wherein a lower limit and an upper limit of the power confidence interval are determined according to the determined deviation, so that for a predetermined proportion of the deviation, the sum of the corresponding deviation and the load forecast and / or the power forecast is located in the corresponding confidence interval. In particular, the predetermined proportion is selected according to a requirement parameter. Preferably, the requirement parameter is a user demand and / or an importance and / or system importance value of the device or application to be supplied with power.

[0095] In a fifth step S5, an operation plan is determined based on the load forecast from the first step S1, the load confidence interval from the second step S2, the power forecast from the third step S3, and the power confidence interval from the fourth step S4, so that at each time point in the forecast range, the instantaneous power predicted for the power supply network 1 is at least as large as the instantaneous upper limit of the load confidence interval. In particular, the power instantaneously provided by the power supply network 1 is calculated as the sum of the instantaneous lower limit of the power confidence interval and the instantaneous power of at least one first power providing device 3. Preferably, the operation plan is determined by means of robust optimization.

[0096] In a sixth step S6 , the power supply network 1 is operated according to the operating plan.

[0097] In an optional seventh step S7, at least one auxiliary condition is established. In particular, the costs of the power supply network 1 are optimized as at least one auxiliary condition.

[0098] Figure 3 A flow chart of an embodiment of a method for determining a confidence interval from historical values ​​is shown.

[0099] In a first determination step BS1, historical values ​​of the load or power are provided. In particular, the historical values ​​have a plurality of values ​​11, wherein each value 11 has in particular a certain point in time, an actual value and a predicted value.

[0100] In a second determination step BS2 , a deviation of the respective actual value from the predicted value is calculated for a plurality of values ​​11 , in particular for each value 11 .

[0101] In a third determination step BS3, a plurality of values ​​11 are selected and combined in at least one histogram. In particular, the frequency with which the deviations fall into a predetermined deviation interval is detected in the at least one histogram.

[0102] In a fourth determination step BS4 , the predetermined ratio is predefined, wherein the first deviation and the second deviation are determined according to the predetermined ratio such that the predetermined ratio of the deviations of the plurality of values ​​11 lies between the first deviation and the second deviation.

[0103] In a fifth determination step BS5 , a confidence interval is determined from the histogram and the predetermined ratio, in particular the first deviation and the second deviation.

Claims

1. A method for operating a power supply network (1), the power supply network having at least one first power supply device (3) with a predeterminable power and at least one second power supply device (5) with a non-predeterminable power, wherein: - determining an operating plan based on a load forecast for a load requirement of the power supply network (1) and based on a power forecast for the at least one second power supply device (5) for a respectively identical predetermined forecast range, the operating plan being used to operate the power supply network (1) at least within the forecast range, wherein: The operation plan is additionally determined based on the load confidence interval of the load forecast and the power confidence interval of the power forecast, so that - at each point in time within the prediction range, the instantaneous power predicted for the power supply network (1) is at least as large as the instantaneous upper limit of the load confidence interval, wherein - operating the power supply network (1) according to the operating plan.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein: The instantaneous power predicted for the power supply network (1) is calculated as the sum of the instantaneous lower limit of the power confidence interval and the instantaneous power of the at least one first power supply device (3).

3. A method according to any one of the preceding claims, wherein: The operating plan is additionally determined as a function of at least one auxiliary condition.

4. The method according to claim 3, wherein: As the at least one auxiliary condition, the costs of the power supply network (1) are minimized.

5. A method according to any one of the preceding claims, wherein: The operating plan is determined with the aid of robust optimization.

6. A method according to any one of the preceding claims, wherein: At least one confidence interval selected from the load confidence interval and the power confidence interval is determined from the historical values.

7. The method according to claim 6, wherein: Determine a deviation of the historical value from a historical value forecast assigned to the historical value, wherein a lower limit and an upper limit of the at least one confidence interval are determined based on the determined deviation, so that for a predetermined proportion of the deviation, the sum of the corresponding deviation and the load forecast and / or the power forecast lies in a corresponding confidence interval.

8. The method according to claim 7, wherein: The predetermined ratio is selected as a function of requirement parameters selected in particular from user requirements, the importance of the device (9) or the application to be supplied with power, and a system importance value.

9. A control device (7) of a power supply network (1), which is configured to carry out the method according to any one of the preceding claims.

10. A power supply network (1) having a control device (7) according to claim 9, at least one first power supply device (3) with a predeterminable power, and at least one second power supply device (5) with a non-predeterminable power.

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