Regional huge disaster rainstorm process judgment method based on meteorological indexes
Through the method of determining the regional disaster rainstorm process based on the meteorological index, it solves the problem of the difficulty of determining and estimated the heavy rainstorm process in existing technologies. The timeliness of disaster relief operation.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202411264963.2
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2024-09-10
- Publication Date
- 2025-01-28
AI Technical Summary
The existing technology is difficult to effectively determine and estimate the catastrophe and heavy rain processes, resulting in insufficient timeliness of disaster prevention, mitigation and relief operations, and lack of unified catastrophe process definition and classification standards.
Adopting the method of judging the regional disaster rainstorm process based on the meteorological index, by obtaining many years of historical data, records of heavy rain disaster conditions and socio -economic data, establish a database of regional heavy rainstorm process, calculate the meteorological index and disaster situation index, determine the judgment of the meteorological index of the heavy rainstorm meteorological index The threshold is to achieve a rapid and timely judgment of the heavy rainstorm process.
The rapid and timely judgment of the heavy rainstorm process was realized, the timeliness of disaster prevention and mitigation and disaster relief operations were improved, and a reliable basis for the relevant government departments to formulate a plan for response plans and provide a basis for the heavy rain disaster insurance.
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Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The invention relates to a method for determining a catastrophic rainstorm process, in particular to a method for determining a regional catastrophic rainstorm process based on meteorological indices. Background Art
[0002] A catastrophic event is a sudden change inside or outside a system that causes the system to be unable to withstand adverse effects. It usually refers to a natural disaster event that causes special and huge losses to people's lives and property, and seriously affects the regional social economy. At present, the judgment of catastrophic events and the disaster process that causes catastrophic events at home and abroad is mostly based on the impact and loss of the disaster. When judging catastrophic events based on the results caused, the timeliness of the estimation of catastrophic events is reduced. So far, there is no relatively recognized and unified definition and classification standard of catastrophic processes, and the judgment of weather processes that cause catastrophic events is rarely involved.
[0003] A catastrophic rainstorm process refers to a rainstorm process that can trigger a catastrophic event. Early judgment of rainstorm processes that may occur in the future or have just occurred, and prediction of catastrophic rainstorm processes, are of great significance for relevant government departments to formulate response plans and organize targeted disaster prevention, mitigation and relief operations. Summary of the invention
[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for determining regional catastrophic rainstorm processes based on meteorological indices, which can quickly and timely determine catastrophic rainstorm processes, use meteorological forecast data to achieve prediction of catastrophic rainstorm processes, provide support for disaster prevention, mitigation and relief operations, and also provide a basis for rainstorm catastrophic insurance.
[0005] The object of the invention is achieved in this way:
[0006] A method for determining a regional catastrophic rainstorm process based on meteorological indices comprises the following steps:
[0007] S1. Obtain precipitation historical data, rainstorm disaster records and socio-economic data for no less than 30 years from all meteorological observation stations in the concerned area. The precipitation historical data include daily precipitation historical data and hourly precipitation historical data. The rainstorm disaster records include the direct economic losses, number of disaster victims, number of deaths and missing persons, and number of affected subordinate areas corresponding to each rainfall in the concerned area. The socio-economic data include the gross regional product of the concerned area in each year and the total number of subordinate areas.
[0008] S2. Determine the conditions for determining regional rainstorm processes based on the acquired daily precipitation history data, and screen the regional rainstorm processes in the concerned area;
[0009] S3. Based on the data corresponding to the selected regional rainstorm processes, a regional rainstorm process database of the concerned area is established, which contains rainfall factors and disaster factors. The rainfall factors include the number of days of the process, the average rainstorm intensity, the average rainstorm range, the maximum 1-hour precipitation, the maximum 3-hour precipitation and the cumulative duration of short-term heavy precipitation. The disaster factors include relative economic losses, the number of people affected, the number of deaths and missing persons and the disaster range.
[0010] S4. Calculate the disaster index of each regional rainstorm process based on the disaster factors in the regional rainstorm process database, rank the disaster indexes, and use the percentile method to determine the historical rainstorm disaster events in the concerned area;
[0011] S5. Calculate the meteorological index of each regional rainstorm process based on the rainfall factor in the regional rainstorm process database, and determine the threshold value of the meteorological index of the rainstorm disaster in the concerned area based on the meteorological index of the historical rainstorm disaster event;
[0012] S6. Calculate the meteorological index of the rainstorm process to be checked. When the meteorological index of the rainstorm process to be checked is greater than or equal to the meteorological index determination threshold of the catastrophic rainstorm in the concerned area, the rainstorm process to be checked is the catastrophic rainstorm process in the concerned area.
[0013] Furthermore, the specific method for determining the regional rainstorm process in step S2 is: when one or more consecutive regional rainstorm days occur, it is determined to be a regional rainstorm process;
[0014] The regional rainstorm day refers to a rainfall day that meets one of the following four conditions:
[0015] The number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 100 mm in the concerned area accounts for 2% or more of the total number of meteorological observation stations in the concerned area;
[0016] The number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 100 mm in the concerned area is less than 2% of the total number of meteorological observation stations in the concerned area, but the number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 50 mm in the concerned area is 3.5% or more of the total number of meteorological observation stations in the concerned area;
[0017] There is no daily precipitation greater than or equal to 100 mm in the concerned area, but the number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 50 mm accounts for 4% or more of the total number of meteorological observation stations in the concerned area;
[0018] There is no daily precipitation greater than or equal to 100 mm in the concerned area, the number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 50 mm is less than 4% but greater than 2.5% of the total number of meteorological observation stations in the concerned area, and the number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation equal to or greater than 10 mm accounts for more than 25% of the total number of meteorological observation stations in the concerned area;
[0019] Furthermore, the calculation formula for the average rainstorm intensity in step S3 is:
[0020]
[0021] Among them, I a is the average rainstorm intensity, T is the duration of regional rainstorm process, M t is the number of meteorological observation stations with rainfall greater than or equal to 50 mm in the concerned area on day t of the regional rainstorm process, S m,t It represents the precipitation on the tth day at the mth meteorological observation station where the rainfall is greater than or equal to 50 mm.
[0022] Furthermore, the calculation formula for the average rainstorm range in step S3 is:
[0023]
[0024] Among them, A a is the average rainstorm range, T is the duration of regional rainstorm process, M is t It is the number of meteorological observation stations where the rainfall in the concerned area is greater than or equal to 50 mm on the tth day of the regional rainstorm process.
[0025] Furthermore, the cumulative duration of short-term heavy rainfall in step S3 is the sum of the number of hours in which the hourly precipitation at all meteorological observation stations is greater than or equal to 20 mm during the regional rainstorm process.
[0026] Furthermore, the relative economic loss in step S3 is the ratio of the direct economic loss caused by the regional rainstorm process to the regional GDP in the previous year.
[0027] Furthermore, the disaster-affected area in step S3 is the ratio of the number of the affected areas to the total number of the areas under the jurisdiction of the concerned area in that year.
[0028] Furthermore, the specific method of calculating the disaster index of each regional rainstorm process in step S4 is:
[0029] S4a-1. Normalize the disaster factors of each regional rainstorm process to obtain the dimensionless attribute value of each factor for disaster index calculation. The normalization formula is:
[0030]
[0031] Among them, Y ij represents the normalized value of the ith disaster factor of the jth regional rainstorm process, X ij represents the value of the i-th disaster factor of the j-th regional rainstorm process, min(X i ) represents the minimum value of the ith disaster factor in all regional rainstorm processes, max(X i ) is the maximum value of the i-th disaster factor in all regional rainstorm processes;
[0032] S4a-2. Using the disaster factor as a parameter, calculate the disaster index reflecting the degree of disaster in the regional rainstorm process. The calculation formula is:
[0033] G=w 11 L e +w 12 L d +w 13 L p +w 14 L r
[0034] Among them, G is the disaster index, L is e is the relative economic loss, L d is the number of deaths, L p is the number of people affected, L r is the disaster area, w 11 、w 12 、w 13 、w 14 The parameters L e , L d , L p , L r The corresponding weight.
[0035] Furthermore, the specific method of calculating the meteorological index of each regional rainstorm process in step S5 is:
[0036] S5a-1. Normalize the rainfall factors of each regional rainstorm process to obtain the dimensionless attribute values of each factor, which are used to calculate the regional intensity index and short-term intensity index. The normalization formula is:
[0037]
[0038] Among them, N ij represents the normalized value of the i-th rainfall factor sample in the j-th regional rainstorm process, W ij represents the value of the i-th rainfall factor of the j-th regional rainstorm process, min(W i ) represents the minimum value of the ith rainfall factor in all regional rainstorm processes, max(Wi ) is the maximum value of the i-th rainfall factor in all regional rainstorm processes;
[0039] S5a-2. Taking the average rainstorm intensity, average rainstorm range and duration of the process as parameters, calculate the regional intensity index reflecting the average rainfall intensity in the rainstorm area. The formula is:
[0040]
[0041] Where Z is the regional intensity index, I a is the average rainstorm intensity, T is the duration of the process, A a is the average rainstorm range;
[0042] S5a-3. Taking the maximum 1-hour precipitation, the maximum 3-hour precipitation and the cumulative duration of short-term heavy precipitation as parameters, calculate the short-term intensity index reflecting the short-term rainfall intensity in the rainstorm area. The formula is:
[0043] D=w 21 R1+w 22 R3+w 23 H 20
[0044] Among them, D is the short-term intensity index, R1 is the maximum 1-hour precipitation, R3 is the maximum 3-hour precipitation, H 20 is the cumulative duration of short-term heavy rainfall, w 21 、w 22 and w 23 The parameters are R1, R3 and H respectively. 20 The corresponding weight coefficient;
[0045] S5a-4. The regional intensity index and the short-term intensity index are weighted and summed to calculate the meteorological index reflecting the comprehensive rainfall intensity of the regional rainstorm process. The formula is:
[0046] Q=w 31 Z+w 32 D
[0047] Among them, Q is the meteorological index; Z is the regional intensity index; D is the short-term intensity index; w 31 、w 32 are the weight coefficients corresponding to parameters Z and D respectively.
[0048] The present invention uses multiple meteorological factors to construct a meteorological index model that reflects the comprehensive rainfall intensity of a rainstorm process, and determines the lowest value of the rainstorm process meteorological index of a historical rainstorm catastrophic event based on the disaster situation as the catastrophic rainstorm meteorological index determination threshold. The threshold method is used to determine the catastrophic rainstorm process for the regional rainstorm process that has occurred or will occur, providing a reliable basis for effectively responding to rainstorm disasters. The present invention can make early judgments on the rainstorm process that may occur or has just occurred in the future, and estimate the catastrophic rainstorm process, which is of great significance for relevant government departments to formulate response plans and organize targeted disaster prevention, mitigation and relief operations.
[0049] The present invention can quickly and timely determine the catastrophic rainstorm process, use meteorological forecast data to predict the catastrophic rainstorm process, provide support for disaster prevention, mitigation and relief operations, and also provide a basis for rainstorm catastrophic insurance. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0050] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the present invention.
[0051] Figure 2 This is the rainfall distribution map of the rainfall process of event 1 to be checked.
[0052] Figure 3 This is the rainfall distribution map of the rainfall process of event 2 to be checked. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0053] The present invention is further described below.
[0054] like Figure 1 As shown, the present invention takes Province A as an example to determine the regional catastrophic rainstorm process in Province A based on the meteorological index. The specific method is as follows:
[0055] S1. Obtain hourly and daily precipitation data from 142 national meteorological observation stations in Province A from 1984 to 2020 from the meteorological department; use the "China Meteorological Disaster Encyclopedia (Province A Volume)", "China Meteorological Disaster Yearbook" and the disaster information shared by the former Civil Affairs Bureau of Province A and the Emergency Management Department of Province A to collect relevant rainstorm disaster records, including the direct economic losses in the concerned areas corresponding to each rainfall, the number of disaster-stricken people, the number of deaths and missing persons, and the number of affected subordinate areas; use the "Province A Economic Yearbook" and "Province A Statistical Yearbook" to obtain the social and economic data of Province A for each year, including the gross regional product (GDP) and the total number of subordinate areas.
[0056] S2. Based on the acquired daily precipitation historical data, determine whether Province A meets the criteria for determining a regional rainstorm process, and screen the regional rainstorm process in Province A.
[0057] The specific method for determining a regional rainstorm process is: when there are one or more consecutive regional rainstorm days, it is determined to be a regional rainstorm process.
[0058] According to the rainfall data of 142 national meteorological observation stations in Province A, regional rainstorm days in Province A refer to rainstorm days that meet one of the following four situations: Situation 1: The number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 100 mm in Province A is greater than or equal to 3 stations; Situation 2: The number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 100 mm in Province A is 1-2 stations, but the number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 50 mm is greater than or equal to 5 stations; Situation 3: There is no meteorological observation station with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 100 mm in Province A, but the number of stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 50 mm is greater than or equal to 6 stations; Situation 4: There is no meteorological observation station with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 100 mm in Province A, the number of stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 50 mm is 4-5 stations, and the number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 10 mm is greater than or equal to 36 stations. A total of 309 regional rainstorm processes were screened out in Province A from 1984 to 2020.
[0059] S3. Based on the data corresponding to the selected regional rainstorm processes, namely, historical precipitation data, rainstorm disaster records and socio-economic data, a regional rainstorm process database for Province A is established. The database contains rainfall factors and disaster factors. Rainfall factors include the number of days the process lasts, average rainstorm intensity, average rainstorm range, maximum 1-hour precipitation, maximum 3-hour precipitation and cumulative duration of short-term heavy precipitation; disaster factors include relative economic losses, number of affected people, number of deaths and missing persons and disaster scope.
[0060] Among them, the number of days the process lasts is the number of days between the start date and the end date of the regional rainstorm process. The first day that meets the conditions of the regional rainstorm process is taken as the start date of a regional rainstorm process, and the day before the conditions of the regional rainstorm process are not met is taken as the end date of a regional rainstorm process; the maximum 1-hour precipitation is the maximum 1-hour precipitation of a single station among all meteorological observation stations during the regional rainstorm process; the maximum 3-hour precipitation is the maximum sum of the precipitation of 3 consecutive hours of rainfall at a single station among all meteorological observation stations during the regional rainstorm process; the cumulative duration of short-term heavy precipitation is the sum of the number of hours when the 1-hour precipitation of all meteorological observation stations during the regional rainstorm process is greater than or equal to 20 mm; the relative economic loss is the ratio of the direct economic loss caused by the regional rainstorm process to the GDP of Province A in the previous year; the disaster scope is the ratio of the number of affected subordinate areas to the total number of subordinate areas of Province A in that year.
[0061] The average rainstorm intensity refers to the average daily precipitation at each meteorological observation station with rainfall greater than or equal to 50 mm during the process. The calculation formula for the average rainstorm intensity is:
[0062]
[0063] Among them, I a is the average rainstorm intensity, T is the duration of regional rainstorm process, M t is the number of meteorological observation stations in province A where the rainfall is greater than or equal to 50 mm on day t of the regional rainstorm process, S m,t It represents the precipitation on the tth day at the mth meteorological observation station where the rainfall is greater than or equal to 50 mm.
[0064] The average rainstorm range is represented by the average number of rainstorm stations per day during regional rainstorms. The calculation formula for the average rainstorm range is:
[0065]
[0066] Among them, A a Average rainstorm range.
[0067] S4. Based on the disaster factors in the regional rainstorm process database of Province A, calculate the disaster index of each regional rainstorm process, rank the disaster indexes, and use the percentile method to determine the historical rainstorm disaster events in Province A.
[0068] The specific method of calculating the disaster index in step S4 is:
[0069] S4a-1. Normalize the disaster factors of each regional rainstorm process to obtain the dimensionless attribute value of each factor for disaster index calculation. The normalization formula is:
[0070]
[0071] Among them, Y ij represents the normalized value of the ith disaster factor of the jth regional rainstorm process, X ij represents the value of the i-th disaster factor of the j-th regional rainstorm process, min(X i ) represents the minimum value of the ith disaster factor in all regional rainstorm processes, max(X i ) is the maximum value of the i-th disaster factor in all regional rainstorm processes.
[0072] S4a-2. Using the disaster factor as a parameter, calculate the disaster index reflecting the degree of disaster in the regional rainstorm process in Province A. The calculation formula is:
[0073] G=0.25L e +0.25L d +0.25L p +0.25L r
[0074] Among them, G is the disaster index, L is e is the relative economic loss, L d is the number of deaths and missing persons, Lp is the number of people affected, L r is the disaster range, 0.25 is the weight of each parameter, and it is obtained by equal weight method.
[0075] As shown in Table 1, among the 309 regional rainstorm processes in Province A from 1984 to 2020, 231 processes had information on disasters or impacts caused by rainstorms. The disaster index of these processes was calculated, and the values were ranked in ascending order. Table 1 lists the regional rainstorm processes with a disaster index percentile above 98%. It is determined that the regional rainstorm processes in time periods a and b corresponding to the disaster index percentile above 99% are historical rainstorm disasters in Province A from 1984 to 2020.
[0076] Table 1: Top five disaster index values of regional rainstorm processes in Province A from 1984 to 2020
[0077]
[0078]
[0079] S5. According to the rainfall factors in the regional rainstorm process database of Province A, the meteorological index of each regional rainstorm process is calculated. According to the meteorological index of historical rainstorm catastrophic events in Province A, the threshold for judging the meteorological index of catastrophic rainstorm in Province A is determined.
[0080] The calculation of meteorological indices includes the following sub-steps:
[0081] S5a-1. Normalize the rainfall factors of each regional rainstorm process to obtain the dimensionless attribute values of each factor, which are used to calculate the regional intensity index and short-term intensity index. The normalization formula is:
[0082]
[0083] Among them, N ij represents the normalized value of the i-th rainfall factor sample in the j-th regional rainstorm process, W ij represents the value of the i-th rainfall factor of the j-th regional rainstorm process, min(W i ) represents the minimum value of the ith rainfall factor in all regional rainstorm processes, max(W i ) is the maximum value of the i-th rainfall factor in all regional rainstorm processes.
[0084] S5a-2. Using the average rainstorm intensity, average rainstorm range and duration of the process as parameters, calculate the regional intensity index reflecting the average rainfall intensity in the rainstorm area of Province A:
[0085]
[0086] Where Z is the regional intensity index, I a is the average rainstorm intensity, T is the duration of the process, A a Average rainstorm range.
[0087] S5a-3. Using the maximum 1-hour precipitation, the maximum 3-hour precipitation and the cumulative duration of short-term heavy precipitation as parameters, calculate the short-term intensity index reflecting the short-term rainfall intensity in the rainstorm area of Province A:
[0088] D=0.17R1+0.2R3+0.63H 20
[0089] Among them, D is the short-term intensity index, R1 is the maximum 1-hour precipitation, R3 is the maximum 3-hour precipitation, H 20 is the cumulative duration of short-term heavy rainfall, 0.17, 0.2, and 0.63 are parameters R1, R3, and H, respectively. 20 The corresponding weight coefficient is obtained by the entropy weight method.
[0090] S5a-4. Perform weighted summation of the regional intensity index and the short-term intensity index to calculate the meteorological index reflecting the comprehensive rainfall intensity of the regional rainstorm process in Province A. The calculation formula is:
[0091] Q=0.5Z+0.5D
[0092] Among them, Q is the meteorological index, Z is the regional intensity index, D is the short-term intensity index, and 0.5 is the weight of each parameter, which is obtained by the equal weight method.
[0093] As shown in Table 2, the meteorological indices of the 309 regional rainstorm processes in Province A from 1984 to 2020 are arranged in descending order in the first six sequences. The two historical rainstorm disaster events in Province A determined based on the disaster index in step S4 are time period a and time period b. The lowest value of the meteorological index of the two historical rainstorm disaster events, 0.94, is determined as the judgment threshold of the meteorological index for the catastrophic rainstorm in Province A.
[0094] Table 2: Top six regional rainstorm process meteorological indices in Province A from 1984 to 2020 in descending order
[0095] sequence Process Date Weather Index 1 b Time period 1.014320 2 a time period 0.940848 3 fTime period 0.843056 4 c Time period 0.805266 5 g time period 0.797551 6 h time period 0.7510453
[0096] S6. Calculate the meteorological index of the rainstorm process to be checked in Province A. When the meteorological index value of the rainstorm process to be checked reaches or exceeds the judgment threshold of the meteorological index of catastrophic rainstorm in Province A, the process is judged to be a catastrophic rainstorm process in Province A.
[0097] The two rainstorm processes to be investigated in Province A were judged as catastrophic rainstorm processes.
[0098] Rainstorm process to be investigated 1. From January 29, year k to January 2, year i, a very heavy rainstorm occurred in Province A.
[0099] like Figure 2 As shown, there are 93 counties (cities and districts) in Province A with cumulative precipitation of more than 100 mm, covering an area of 84,300 square kilometers. The average precipitation in the rainfall area is 160.7 mm. The maximum process precipitation is 1003.4 mm, which occurs at the O′ raingauge station in City O. The maximum hourly precipitation is 115.0 mm, which occurs at the A′ raingauge station in Province A. According to statistics from the Emergency Management Department of Province A, this torrential rain caused flood disasters in 116 counties (cities, districts) and 1,141 townships (towns) in B City, C City, E City, G City, I City, J City, L City, M City, N City, O City and P City. Crops such as corn, vegetables, fruits, and trees were affected to varying degrees. Among them, D City and H City are municipalities directly under the central government. A large number of houses collapsed, and infrastructure such as transportation, electricity, communications and water conservancy were severely damaged. A total of 4,068,900 people were affected, including 46 deaths (missing) due to the disaster, and 1,232,500 people were urgently relocated and resettled; the affected area of crops was 375,840 hectares, of which 272,230 hectares were completely harvested; 87,300 houses collapsed, 422,800 houses were severely damaged, and 672,600 houses were generally damaged; the direct economic loss reached 96.829 billion yuan.
[0100] As shown in Table 3, according to the steps of the regional catastrophic rainstorm process judgment method based on meteorological index, the meteorological index of the rainstorm process from month 29 of year k to month 2 of year i+1 is calculated to be 1.057, which is greater than the rainstorm catastrophic judgment threshold of 0.94 in Province A. It is judged that the torrential rain process 1 to be checked in Province A is a catastrophic rainstorm process in Province A.
[0101] Heavy rain process to be investigated 2. During the period from 18th to 22nd of month nth of year m, large-scale heavy rains occurred continuously in Province A from 18th to 19th and from 21st to 22nd.
[0102] like Figure 3 As shown, 89 and 69 counties (cities, districts) in J, L, O and P cities had precipitation of more than 50 mm, respectively. The largest rainfall was in P' County, P" Township, P City, reaching 453.0 mm, and the maximum hourly precipitation was 87.8 mm, which occurred in J City at 17:00 on the 21st. The continuous heavy rainfall in J City, L City, O City and P City caused serious urban waterlogging in these areas, and some rivers in the south had flood peaks, and local small and medium river floods, mountain torrents and geological disasters occurred. According to statistics from the Emergency Management Department of Province A, from the 18th to the 22nd, 315 townships (townships) in 37 counties (cities and districts) in L City, O City and P City suffered from heavy rain and flood disasters, affecting 1.0267 million people, 124,700 people were urgently relocated, 71,320 hectares of crops were affected, 31,920 hectares were completely lost, 617 houses collapsed, 2,597 houses were severely damaged, 9,492 houses were generally damaged, and the direct economic loss was 7.044 billion yuan.
[0103] As shown in Table 3, according to the steps of the regional catastrophic rainstorm process determination method based on meteorological index, the meteorological index of the to-be-checked rainstorm process from 18th to 22nd of month n in year m is calculated to be 0.5957, which is less than the judgment threshold of 0.94 for catastrophic rainstorm process in Province A and does not meet the judgment standard for catastrophic rainstorm process in Province A. It is determined that the to-be-checked rainstorm process from 18th to 22nd of month n in year m is not a catastrophic rainstorm process in Province A.
[0104] Table 3. Calculation results of meteorological index of the process to be checked
[0105] Process Date Weather Index k year i month 29th - i+1 month 2nd 1.057123 18th to 22nd of month n in year m 0.595694
Claims
1. A method for determining regional catastrophic rainstorm processes based on meteorological indices, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: S1. Obtain precipitation historical data, rainstorm disaster records and socio-economic data for no less than 30 years from all meteorological observation stations in the concerned area. The precipitation historical data include daily precipitation historical data and hourly precipitation historical data. The rainstorm disaster records include the direct economic losses, number of disaster victims, number of deaths and missing persons, and number of affected subordinate areas corresponding to each rainfall in the concerned area. The socio-economic data include the gross regional product of the concerned area in each year and the total number of subordinate areas. S2. Determine the conditions for determining regional rainstorm processes based on the acquired daily precipitation history data, and screen the regional rainstorm processes in the concerned area; S3. Based on the data corresponding to the selected regional rainstorm processes, a regional rainstorm process database of the concerned area is established, which contains rainfall factors and disaster factors. The rainfall factors include the number of days of the process, the average rainstorm intensity, the average rainstorm range, the maximum 1-hour precipitation, the maximum 3-hour precipitation and the cumulative duration of short-term heavy precipitation. The disaster factors include relative economic losses, the number of people affected, the number of deaths and missing persons and the disaster range. S4. Calculate the disaster index of each regional rainstorm process based on the disaster factors in the regional rainstorm process database, rank the disaster indexes, and use the percentile method to determine the historical rainstorm disaster events in the concerned area; S5. Calculate the meteorological index of each regional rainstorm process based on the rainfall factor in the regional rainstorm process database, and determine the threshold value of the meteorological index of the rainstorm disaster in the concerned area based on the meteorological index of the historical rainstorm disaster event; S6. Calculate the meteorological index of the rainstorm process to be checked. When the meteorological index of the rainstorm process to be checked is greater than or equal to the meteorological index determination threshold of the catastrophic rainstorm in the concerned area, the rainstorm process to be checked is the catastrophic rainstorm process in the concerned area.
2. The method for determining regional catastrophic rainstorm process based on meteorological index according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The specific method of determining a regional rainstorm process in step S2 is: when one or more consecutive regional rainstorm days occur, it is determined to be a regional rainstorm process; The regional rainstorm day refers to a rainfall day that meets one of the following four conditions: The number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 100 mm in the concerned area accounts for 2% or more of the total number of meteorological observation stations in the concerned area; The number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 100 mm in the concerned area is less than 2% of the total number of meteorological observation stations in the concerned area, but the number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 50 mm in the concerned area is 3.5% or more of the total number of meteorological observation stations in the concerned area; There is no daily precipitation greater than or equal to 100 mm in the concerned area, but the number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 50 mm accounts for 4% or more of the total number of meteorological observation stations in the concerned area; There is no daily precipitation greater than or equal to 100 mm in the area of concern, the number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation greater than or equal to 50 mm is less than 4% but greater than 2.5% of the total number of meteorological observation stations in the area of concern, and the number of meteorological observation stations with daily precipitation equal to or greater than 10 mm accounts for more than 25% of the total number of meteorological observation stations in the area of concern.
3. The method for determining regional catastrophic rainstorm process based on meteorological index according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The calculation formula of the average rainstorm intensity in step S3 is: Among them, I a is the average rainstorm intensity, T is the duration of regional rainstorm process, M t is the number of meteorological observation stations with rainfall greater than or equal to 50 mm in the concerned area on day t of the regional rainstorm process, S m，t It represents the precipitation on the tth day at the mth meteorological observation station where the rainfall is greater than or equal to 50 mm.
4. The method for determining regional catastrophic rainstorm process based on meteorological index according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The calculation formula of the average rainstorm range in step S3 is: Among them, A a is the average rainstorm range, T is the duration of regional rainstorm process, M t It is the number of meteorological observation stations where the rainfall in the concerned area is greater than or equal to 50 mm on the tth day of the regional rainstorm process.
5. The method for determining regional catastrophic rainstorm process based on meteorological index according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The cumulative duration of short-term heavy rainfall in step S3 is the sum of the number of hours in which the hourly precipitation at all meteorological observation stations is greater than or equal to 20 mm during the regional rainstorm process.
6. The method for determining regional catastrophic rainstorm process based on meteorological index according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The relative economic loss in step S3 is the ratio of the direct economic loss caused by the regional rainstorm process to the regional GDP in the previous year.
7. The method for determining regional catastrophic rainstorm process based on meteorological index according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In step S3, the disaster-affected area is the ratio of the number of the affected areas to the total number of the areas under the jurisdiction of the concerned area that year.
8. The method for determining regional catastrophic rainstorm process based on meteorological index according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The specific method of calculating the disaster index of each regional rainstorm process in step S4 is: S4a-1. Normalize the disaster factors of each regional rainstorm process to obtain the dimensionless attribute value of each factor. The normalization formula is: Among them, Y ij represents the normalized value of the ith disaster factor of the jth regional rainstorm process, X ij represents the value of the i-th disaster factor of the j-th regional rainstorm process, min(X i ) represents the minimum value of the ith disaster factor in all regional rainstorm processes, max(X i ) is the maximum value of the i-th disaster factor in all regional rainstorm processes; S4a-2. Using the disaster factor as a parameter, calculate the disaster index of the regional rainstorm process. The calculation formula is: G=w 11 L e +w 12 L d +w 13 L p +w 14 L r Among them, G is the disaster index, L is e is the relative economic loss, L d is the number of deaths, L p is the number of people affected, L r is the disaster area, w 11 、w 12 、w 13 、w 14 The parameters L e , L d , L p , L r The corresponding weight.
9. The method for determining regional catastrophic rainstorm process based on meteorological index according to claim 1, characterized in that: The specific method of calculating the meteorological index of each regional rainstorm process in step S5 is: S5a-1. Normalize the rainfall factors of each regional rainstorm process to obtain the dimensionless attribute value of each factor. The normalization formula is: Among them, N ij represents the normalized value of the i-th rainfall factor sample in the j-th regional rainstorm process, W ij represents the value of the i-th rainfall factor of the j-th regional rainstorm process, min(W i ) represents the minimum value of the ith rainfall factor in all regional rainstorm processes, max(W i ) is the maximum value of the i-th rainfall factor in all regional rainstorm processes; S5a-2. The regional intensity index is calculated using the average rainstorm intensity, average rainstorm range and duration of the process as parameters. The formula is: Where Z is the regional intensity index, I a is the average rainstorm intensity, T is the duration of the process, A a is the average rainstorm range; S5a-3. The short-term intensity index is calculated using the maximum 1-hour precipitation, the maximum 3-hour precipitation and the cumulative duration of short-term heavy precipitation as parameters. The formula is: D=w 21 R1+w 22 R3+w 23 H 20 Among them, D is the short-term intensity index, R1 is the maximum 1-hour precipitation, R3 is the maximum 3-hour precipitation, H 20 is the cumulative duration of short-term heavy rainfall, w 21 、w 22 and w 23 The parameters are R1, R3 and H respectively. 20 The corresponding weight coefficient; S5a-4. Calculate the meteorological index by weighted summation of the regional intensity index and the short-term intensity index. The formula is: Q=w 31 Z+w 32 D Among them, Q is the meteorological index; Z is the regional intensity index; D is the short-term intensity index; w 31 、w 32 are the weight coefficients corresponding to parameters Z and D respectively.