Railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control comprehensive early warning method based on controllability

Abstract

The invention provides a railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control comprehensive early warning method based on controllability. The method comprises the following steps: constructing a railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control comprehensive early warning platform; the railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control comprehensive early warning platform comprises a construction safety risk state evaluation module based on monitoring measurement, a safety risk management and control level evaluation module based on hidden danger investigation and a safety risk management and control comprehensive early warning evaluation module based on correlation analysis. According to the method, on the basis of risk identification and risk assessment, the view of improving the safety risk management and control level is focused on, and on the basis of collecting normal operation data of safety management work of a construction site, a safety risk comprehensive early warning decision model based on risk controllability is constructed; problems and deficiencies in construction safety risk management are found in time and early warning is carried out, potential safety hazards are eliminated fundamentally, accidents are prevented, and decision support is provided for formulating a more targeted risk grading management and control scheme.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of railway engineering construction safety risk management, and specifically relates to a comprehensive early warning method for railway tunnel construction safety risk management based on controllability. Background Art

[0002] Safety risk warning is a key link to achieve safety risk prevention and early intervention, and to avoid or mitigate the occurrence of major safety accidents. Effective warning is the difficulty of safety risk management and control. Building a warning decision model is the basis for achieving scientific and effective warning. Railway tunnel construction is very complex, and there are many safety risk factors, which leads to various safety incidents occurring from time to time during the construction process. Construction safety faces huge challenges. It is necessary to establish and improve early warning methods suitable for railway tunnel engineering safety risk prevention and control. From the current situation of railway tunnel construction safety management, due to the indirect, ambiguous and hidden nature of safety management risks, safety management is difficult, and the implementation of safety management warning is relatively complex. Summary of the invention

[0003] In view of the defects of the prior art, the present invention provides a comprehensive early warning method for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control based on controllability, which can effectively solve the above problems.

[0004] The technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows:

[0005] The present invention provides a comprehensive early warning method for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control based on controllability, comprising the following steps:

[0006] Step S1, constructing a comprehensive early warning platform for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control; the comprehensive early warning platform for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control includes a construction safety risk status assessment module based on monitoring and measurement, a safety risk management and control level assessment module based on hidden danger investigation, and a safety risk management and control comprehensive early warning assessment module based on correlation analysis;

[0007] Step S2, the monitoring and measurement-based construction safety risk status assessment module uses monitoring and measurement data to dynamically and comprehensively assess the safety risk level of the railway tunnel construction project and its closely related geological environment during the construction process to obtain a construction safety risk status assessment level;

[0008] Step S3, the safety risk management level assessment module based on hidden danger investigation uses daily hidden danger investigation and safety inspection data to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the safety risk management level of the railway tunnel construction site to obtain a safety risk management level assessment grade;

[0009] Step S4, input the construction safety risk status assessment level and the safety risk control level assessment level into the safety risk control comprehensive early warning assessment module based on correlation analysis, calculate the correlation between the construction safety risk status assessment level and the safety risk control level assessment level, and thereby determine the safety risk control comprehensive early warning level; and conduct a safety risk control comprehensive early warning based on the safety risk control comprehensive early warning level.

[0010] Preferably, step S2 specifically comprises:

[0011] Step S2.1, establishing a construction safety risk status assessment index system according to the tunnel construction progress and key risk factors of the current tunnel construction period; the construction safety risk status assessment index system includes engineering geology related indicators, cofferdam deformation related indicators and hydrogeology related indicators;

[0012] Step S2.2, determining the weight of each construction safety risk status assessment indicator in the construction safety risk status assessment indicator system; assuming that the construction safety risk status assessment indicator system includes F construction safety risk status assessment indicators, the weight of the fth construction safety risk status assessment indicator is w f , thus we get the weight vector W = (w1, w2, ..., w F ), where F = 1, 2, …, f;

[0013] Step S2.3, in the current tunnel construction cycle, the dynamic monitoring data of each construction safety risk status assessment indicator is collected in real time by using monitoring and measuring equipment; therefore, for the current tunnel construction cycle, for each construction safety risk status assessment indicator, its monitoring data time series is collected;

[0014] Step S2.4, establishing a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model; the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model obtains the construction safety risk status evaluation level of all construction safety risk status evaluation indicators in the current tunnel construction cycle:

[0015] Step S2.4.1, pre-establish the construction safety risk status assessment level; map the monitoring data time series of all construction safety risk status assessment indicators into the fuzzy membership of each construction safety risk status assessment level, and generate a fuzzy judgment matrix; in the fuzzy judgment matrix, obtain the comprehensive fuzzy membership of each construction safety risk status assessment indicator; specifically, the comprehensive fuzzy membership of the fth construction safety risk status assessment indicator is expressed as r f ;

[0016] Step S2.4.2, based on the fuzzy evaluation matrix and combined with the weights obtained in step S2.2, the following formula is used to obtain the comprehensive fuzzy membership degree μ of all construction safety risk status assessment indicators:

[0017] μ=∑w f ·r f (1)

[0018] Step S2.4.3, according to the pre-established construction safety risk status level assessment standard, the comprehensive fuzzy membership μ is mapped to the corresponding construction safety risk status assessment level.

[0019] Preferably, step S3 specifically comprises:

[0020] Step S3.1, according to the relevant requirements of safety risk classification control and hidden danger investigation at the tunnel construction site, select indicators that can reflect the safety risk control level to form a comprehensive evaluation index system for the safety risk control level; the comprehensive evaluation index system for the safety risk control level includes indicators related to unsafe behaviors of operators, indicators related to unsafe conditions of construction equipment, indicators related to unsafe factors in the working environment, and indicators related to safety management defects;

[0021] Step S3.2, constructing a matter-element model; specifically, assuming that the number of comprehensive evaluation indicators of safety risk control level is n, and m evaluation standard levels are established, then the classical domain R of the matter-element model is j and section R p , respectively expressed as:

[0022]

[0023]

[0024] in:

[0025] R j The matter-element model representing the jth evaluation criterion level;

[0026] N j represents the evaluation effect of the object-element to be evaluated under the jth evaluation standard level; j = 1, 2, ..., m;

[0027] c i represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the i-th safety risk control level; i = 1, 2, ..., n;

[0028] V ji =v ji = <a ji , b ji > represents the value range of the classic domain of the indicator, specifically the value range of the jth evaluation standard level of the i-th comprehensive evaluation indicator of the safety risk control level, that is: ji to b ji Between; also expressed as V ji N j About C iThe value of

[0029] p represents the total number of levels of the objects to be evaluated;

[0030] V pi =v pi = <a pi , b pi > represents the value range of the node domain, specifically the value range of the comprehensive evaluation index of the safety risk control level of all p of the object to be evaluated, that is: pi to b pi between;

[0031] in: pi , b pi >, for <a ji , b ji > The union of all ranges of the comprehensive evaluation indicators of the i-th safety risk control level where j = 1, 2, ..., m;

[0032] Step S3.3, define the matter-element to be evaluated:

[0033] Based on daily hidden danger investigation and safety inspection, the dynamic inspection data of all comprehensive evaluation indicators of safety risk control level in the current cycle are obtained to form a time series value. According to the indicator threshold system and scoring standard, the actual score of each comprehensive evaluation indicator of safety risk control level is obtained and standardized to obtain the standardized score, forming the matter-element R0 to be evaluated, which is expressed as:

[0034]

[0035] Among them: p0 refers to the name of the matter-element to be evaluated; v i is the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level of p0 i The value of the i-th safety risk control level comprehensive evaluation index c i Standardized score of

[0036] Step S3.4, calculate the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level i The indicator weight ω i ;

[0037] Step S3.5, calculate the correlation degree:

[0038] Use the correlation function to calculate the correlation degree K j (v i ), that is: the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level i The standardized score v i The matter-element model R of the jth evaluation standard level j The correlation degree is specifically expressed as: ​

[0039]

[0040] |V ji |=|b ji -a ji | (6)

[0041]

[0042] in:

[0043] ρ(v i , V ji ) represents the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level i The standardized score v i The distance between the value range of the jth evaluation standard level of the i-th safety risk control level comprehensive evaluation indicator, that is, the level interval, ρ(v i , V pi ) represents the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level i The standardized score v i With the entire level range V pi The distance, |V ji | indicates the value range of the indicator classic domain V ji distance;

[0044] Step S3.6, using formula (9), obtain the matter-element R0 to be evaluated and the matter-element model R of the jth evaluation standard level j The comprehensive correlation K j (p0):

[0045]

[0046] Step S3.7, determine the safety risk management level assessment level:

[0047] According to the maximum membership principle, the comprehensive correlation degree K is selected j (p0) is the highest evaluation standard level, which is determined as the safety risk control level assessment level of the object-element R0 to be evaluated; specifically, if the object-element R0 to be evaluated belongs to the jth evaluation standard level, it is expressed as

[0048]

[0049] This determines the safety risk management level assessment grade of the object-element R0 to be evaluated.

[0050] Preferably, step S4 is specifically:

[0051] Step S4.1, predefine the rank corresponding to each evaluation level;

[0052] Step S4.2, digitizing the construction safety risk status assessment level time series obtained within the early warning period according to the mapping relationship in step S4.1 to obtain a construction safety risk status assessment level reference sequence X0;

[0053] The safety risk control level assessment level time series obtained within the early warning period is digitized according to the mapping relationship in step S4.1 to obtain the safety risk control level assessment level observation sequence X1;

[0054] Step S4.3, using the grey correlation calculation method, calculate the grey correlation Gr of the construction safety risk status assessment level reference sequence X0 and the safety risk control level assessment level observation sequence X1 within this early warning cycle;

[0055] Step S4.4, according to the grey correlation degree Gr, according to the preset rules, the risk management controllability is obtained; then according to the risk management controllability, the comprehensive warning level of safety risk management is determined.

[0056] Preferably, step S4.3 is specifically:

[0057] Step S4.3.1, find the difference sequence:

[0058] The reference sequence X0 of construction safety risk status assessment level has N construction safety risk status assessment level values, expressed as: x0(1), x0(2), ..., x0(N);

[0059] Assume that the safety risk control level assessment grade observation sequence X1 has N safety risk control level assessment grade values, expressed as: x1(1), x1(2), ..., x1(N);

[0060] Calculate the difference of each level Δ(k)=x0(k)-x1(k); where k=1, 2, ..., N; thus, the sequence of level differences is obtained: Δ=(Δ(1), Δ(2), ..., Δ(N));

[0061] Step S4.3.2, find the maximum difference MA and the minimum difference MI of the level difference:

[0062]

[0063] Step S4.3.3, calculate the correlation coefficient γ(k):

[0064]

[0065] Among them: ξ∈(0,1), is the resolution coefficient;

[0066] Step S4.3.4, calculate the grey relational degree Gr:

[0067]

[0068] Thus, the grey correlation degree Gr of the construction safety risk status assessment level reference sequence X0 and the safety risk control level assessment level observation sequence X1 within this early warning cycle is obtained.

[0069] The invention provides a comprehensive early warning method for railway tunnel construction safety risk management based on controllability, which has the following advantages:

[0070] According to the current situation of risk early warning demand in railway tunnel engineering construction, the present invention starts from the commonality of safety management, takes the humanistic principle, prevention principle, compulsory principle and other theories as guidance, and on the basis of risk identification and risk assessment, focuses on improving the level of safety risk management and control. On the basis of collecting normal operation data of construction site safety management work, a comprehensive safety risk early warning decision model based on risk controllability is constructed, which can timely discover problems and deficiencies in construction safety risk management and issue early warnings, fundamentally eliminate safety hazards, prevent accidents, and provide decision support for formulating more targeted risk classification management and control plans. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0071] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a flow chart of a comprehensive early warning method for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control based on controllability provided by the present invention;

[0072] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of a construction safety risk status assessment module based on monitoring and measurement provided by the present invention;

[0073] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of a safety risk management and control level assessment module based on hidden danger detection provided by the present invention;

[0074] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the comprehensive early warning and evaluation module for safety risk management and control based on correlation analysis provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0075] In order to make the technical problems, technical solutions and beneficial effects solved by the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not used to limit the present invention.

[0076] According to the current situation of risk early warning demand in railway tunnel engineering construction, the present invention starts from the commonality of safety management, takes the humanistic principle, prevention principle, compulsory principle and other theories as guidance, and on the basis of risk identification and risk assessment, focuses on improving the level of safety risk management and control. On the basis of collecting normal operation data of construction site safety management work, a comprehensive safety risk early warning decision model based on risk controllability is constructed, which can timely discover problems and deficiencies in construction safety risk management and issue early warnings, fundamentally eliminate safety hazards, prevent accidents, and provide decision support for formulating more targeted risk classification management and control plans.

[0077] Specifically, unsafe behavior of people, unsafe state of objects and institutional defects in safety management are the essential causes of tunnel construction accidents. The present invention effectively monitors the implementation of safety management, promptly discovers problems and deficiencies in construction safety risk management and issues early warnings, thereby fundamentally eliminating safety hazards and preventing accidents.

[0078] The present invention provides a comprehensive early warning method for railway tunnel construction safety risk management based on controllability. The overall solution includes three major processes: construction safety risk status assessment based on monitoring and measurement, safety risk management level assessment based on hidden danger investigation, and safety risk management comprehensive early warning assessment based on correlation analysis. The three major processes are respectively embedded with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, matter-element extension evaluation model and grey correlation analysis model, thus forming a complete set of comprehensive early warning methods for safety risk management based on controllability. The overall process and principle are as follows: Figure 1 shown.

[0079] The present invention provides a comprehensive early warning method for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control based on controllability, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0080] Step S1, constructing a comprehensive early warning platform for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control; the comprehensive early warning platform for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control includes a construction safety risk status assessment module based on monitoring and measurement, a safety risk management and control level assessment module based on hidden danger investigation, and a safety risk management and control comprehensive early warning assessment module based on correlation analysis;

[0081] Step S2, the monitoring and measurement-based construction safety risk status assessment module uses monitoring and measurement data to dynamically and comprehensively assess the safety risk level of the railway tunnel construction project and its closely related geological environment during the construction process to obtain a construction safety risk status assessment level;

[0082] Step S3, the safety risk management level assessment module based on hidden danger investigation uses daily hidden danger investigation and safety inspection data to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the safety risk management level of the railway tunnel construction site to obtain a safety risk management level assessment grade;

[0083] Step S4, input the construction safety risk status assessment level and the safety risk control level assessment level into the safety risk control comprehensive early warning assessment module based on correlation analysis, calculate the correlation between the construction safety risk status assessment level and the safety risk control level assessment level, and thereby determine the safety risk control comprehensive early warning level; and conduct a safety risk control comprehensive early warning based on the safety risk control comprehensive early warning level.

[0084] The following describes steps S2 to S4 in detail:

[0085] Step S2, the monitoring and measurement-based construction safety risk status assessment module uses monitoring and measurement data to dynamically and comprehensively assess the safety risk level of the railway tunnel construction project and its closely related geological environment during the construction process to obtain a construction safety risk status assessment level;

[0086] The main implementation principles of this step are:

[0087] The comprehensive assessment of construction safety risk status is a dynamic assessment of the safety risk level of the project itself and its closely related geological environment during the construction of railway tunnels. First, a comprehensive assessment index system for safety risk status is established based on the tunnel construction progress and key risk factors of the current cycle. These indicators cover major risk factors such as engineering geology, cofferdam deformation, and hydrogeology. Based on the dynamic monitoring data (time series values) of all indicators in the cycle obtained by monitoring and measuring equipment, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is used to calculate the comprehensive risk level value, and the comprehensive risk level is determined according to the comprehensive evaluation standard for construction safety risk status.

[0088] See also Figure 2 , step S2 is specifically as follows:

[0089] Step S2.1, establish a construction safety risk status assessment indicator system:

[0090] According to the progress of tunnel construction, on the basis of risk identification, the key risk factors of the current tunnel construction period are determined, and a construction safety risk status assessment index system is established; the construction safety risk status assessment index system is an important assessment index related to the project itself and its closely related geological environment. These indicators should be able to obtain data through monitoring and measurement equipment, and may specifically include engineering geology-related indicators, cofferdam deformation-related indicators, and hydrogeology-related indicators, etc.;

[0091] Step S2.2, calculate the indicator weight:

[0092] Determine the weight of each construction safety risk status assessment indicator in the construction safety risk status assessment indicator system; Assume that the construction safety risk status assessment indicator system includes F construction safety risk status assessment indicators, then the weight of the fth construction safety risk status assessment indicator is w f , thus we get the weight vector W = (w1, w2, ..., w F ), where F = 1, 2, …, f;

[0093] Specifically, in order to facilitate on-site operation, the weighted average method based on expert scoring is used to calculate the weight of each indicator. The weight calculation steps are as follows:

[0094] ① Obtain the importance of construction safety risk status assessment indicators

[0095] By inviting experts and scholars in tunnel construction as well as on-site construction project managers, the importance of each indicator is judged and scored based on the actual construction conditions at different work sites and relevant information.

[0096] ② Calculate the weight vector W

[0097] On the basis of the evaluation of the importance of indicators, the average of the evaluation scores of each expert for each indicator is taken to obtain the weight vector W = (w1, w2, ..., w F ), the specific calculation process is shown in Table 1.

[0098] Table 1 Construction safety risk status assessment index weight vector calculation table

[0099]

[0100] Step S2.3, in the current tunnel construction cycle, the dynamic monitoring data of each construction safety risk status assessment indicator is collected in real time by using monitoring and measuring equipment; therefore, for the current tunnel construction cycle, for each construction safety risk status assessment indicator, its monitoring data time series is collected;

[0101] Step S2.4, establishing a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model; the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model obtains the construction safety risk status evaluation level of all construction safety risk status evaluation indicators in the current tunnel construction cycle:

[0102] Step S2.4.1, generate fuzzy evaluation matrix:

[0103] Pre-establish the construction safety risk status assessment level; map the monitoring data time series of all construction safety risk status assessment indicators to the fuzzy membership (0-1) of each construction safety risk status assessment level, and generate a fuzzy judgment matrix; obtain the comprehensive fuzzy membership of each construction safety risk status assessment indicator in the fuzzy judgment matrix; specifically, the comprehensive fuzzy membership of the f-th construction safety risk status assessment indicator is expressed as r f ;

[0104] Step S2.4.2, calculate the comprehensive membership:

[0105] Based on the fuzzy evaluation matrix and combined with the weights obtained in step S2.2, the following formula is used to obtain the comprehensive fuzzy membership degree μ of all construction safety risk status assessment indicators:

[0106] μ=∑w f ·r f (1)

[0107] Step S2.4.3, determine the construction safety risk status assessment level:

[0108] According to the pre-established construction safety risk status level assessment standard, the comprehensive fuzzy membership degree μ is mapped to the corresponding construction safety risk status assessment level.

[0109] Specifically, according to the evaluation criteria in Table 2, the comprehensive fuzzy membership value calculated above is mapped to the corresponding comprehensive risk level.

[0110] Table 2 Construction safety risk status level assessment standards

[0111]

[0112] Step S3, the safety risk management level assessment module based on hidden danger investigation uses daily hidden danger investigation and safety inspection data to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the safety risk management level of the railway tunnel construction site to obtain a safety risk management level assessment grade;

[0113] The main implementation principles of this step are:

[0114] The safety risk control level assessment is a comprehensive assessment of the safety risk management level of railway tunnel construction sites. The evaluation indicators mainly cover three aspects: unsafe behaviors of people, unsafe conditions of objects, and management defects. Based on daily hidden danger inspections and safety inspections, the dynamic inspection data (time series values) of all indicators in this period are obtained. According to the indicator threshold system, the matter-element extension model is used to calculate the control level assessment grade value.

[0115] See also Figure 3 , step S3 is specifically as follows:

[0116] Step S3.1, establish a comprehensive assessment indicator system for safety risk management and control levels:

[0117] According to the relevant requirements of safety risk classification control and hidden danger investigation at the tunnel construction site, indicators that can reflect the level of safety risk control are selected to form a comprehensive evaluation index system for the safety risk control level; the comprehensive evaluation index system for the safety risk control level includes three aspects: indicators related to unsafe behaviors of operators, indicators related to unsafe conditions of construction equipment, indicators related to unsafe factors in the working environment, and indicators related to safety management defects.

[0118] Step S3.2, constructing a matter-element model;

[0119] It is necessary to construct two models: the classic matter-element model and the node-domain matter-element model.

[0120] Specifically, assuming that the number of comprehensive evaluation indicators of safety risk control level is n, and m evaluation standard levels are established, then the classical domain R of the matter-element model is j and section R p , respectively expressed as:

[0121]

[0122] in:

[0123] R j The matter-element model representing the jth evaluation criterion level;

[0124] N j represents the evaluation effect of the object-element to be evaluated under the jth evaluation standard level; j = 1, 2, ..., m;

[0125] c i represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the i-th safety risk control level; i = 1, 2, ..., n;

[0126] V ji =v ji = <a ji , b ji > represents the value range of the classic domain of the indicator, specifically the value range of the jth evaluation standard level of the i-th comprehensive evaluation indicator of the safety risk control level, that is: ji to b ji Between; also expressed as V ji N j about C the magnitude of i;

[0127] p represents the total number of levels of the objects to be evaluated;

[0128] V pi =v pi = <a pi, b pi > represents the value range of the node domain, specifically the value range of the comprehensive evaluation index of the safety risk control level of all p of the object to be evaluated, that is: pi to b pi between;

[0129] in: pi , b pi >, for <a ji , b ji > The union of all ranges of the comprehensive evaluation indicators of the i-th safety risk control level where j = 1, 2, ..., m;

[0130] Step S3.3, define the matter-element to be evaluated:

[0131] Based on the data of daily hidden danger investigation and safety inspection, the dynamic inspection data of all comprehensive evaluation indicators of safety risk control level in the current cycle are obtained to form time series values. According to the indicator threshold system and scoring standard, the actual score of each comprehensive evaluation indicator of safety risk control level is obtained and standardized to obtain the standardized score, forming the matter-element R0 to be evaluated, which is expressed as:

[0132]

[0133] Among them: p0 refers to the name of the matter-element to be evaluated; v i is the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level of p0 i The value of the i-th safety risk control level comprehensive evaluation index c i Standardized score of

[0134] Step S3.4, calculate the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level i The indicator weight ω i ;

[0135] In order to facilitate on-site operation, the weight of each indicator is calculated using the relationship method based on expert scoring. The calculation steps are as follows:

[0136] ① Quantitative indicators: Quantify each indicator and use specific data or expert experience to score the indicator.

[0137] ② Calculate relative weights: Calculate the relative weights of various indicators based on the quantification results. This step can be achieved by calculating the ratio of various indicators and then normalizing them.

[0138] ③ Calculate the comprehensive weight: multiply the relative weight of each indicator by the weight of its corresponding superior indicator to obtain the comprehensive weight of each indicator.

[0139] ​④ Normalization: Normalize the comprehensive weights of each indicator so that their sum is 1 to obtain the final weight result.

[0140] Step S3.5, calculate the correlation degree:

[0141] Use the correlation function to calculate the correlation degree K j (v i ), that is: the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level i The standardized score v i The matter-element model R of the jth evaluation standard level j The correlation degree is specifically expressed as:

[0142]

[0143] |V ji |=|b ji -a ji | (6)

[0144]

[0145] in:

[0146] ρ(v i , V ji ) represents the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level i The standardized score v i The distance between the value range of the jth evaluation standard level of the i-th safety risk control level comprehensive evaluation indicator, that is, the level interval, ρ(v i , V pi ) represents the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level i The standardized score v i With the entire level range V pi The distance, |V ji | indicates the value range of the indicator classic domain V ji distance;

[0147] Step S3.6, using formula (9), obtain the matter-element R0 to be evaluated and the matter-element model R of the jth evaluation standard level j The comprehensive correlation K j (p0):

[0148]

[0149] Step S3.7, determine the safety risk management level assessment level:

[0150] According to the maximum membership principle, the comprehensive correlation degree K is selected j(p0) is the highest evaluation standard level, which is determined as the safety risk control level assessment level of the object-element R0 to be evaluated; specifically, if the object-element R0 to be evaluated belongs to the jth evaluation standard level, it is expressed as

[0151]

[0152] This determines the safety risk management level assessment grade of the object-element R0 to be evaluated.

[0153] Step S4, input the construction safety risk status assessment level and the safety risk control level assessment level into the safety risk control comprehensive early warning assessment module based on correlation analysis, calculate the correlation between the construction safety risk status assessment level and the safety risk control level assessment level, and thereby determine the safety risk control comprehensive early warning level; and conduct a safety risk control comprehensive early warning based on the safety risk control comprehensive early warning level.

[0154] The main implementation principles of this step are:

[0155] The comprehensive early warning level of safety risk control is jointly determined by the construction safety risk status assessment level and the safety risk control level assessment level within the early warning period. The higher the correlation between the two (that is, when the construction safety risk status level is high, the safety risk control level level is also high, indicating that the risk is well controlled), the higher the comprehensive safety risk control level is. Therefore, the correlation between the construction safety risk status and the safety risk control level is calculated to obtain the comprehensive early warning value of safety risk control, and the comprehensive early warning level of safety risk control is determined according to the early warning level evaluation standard.

[0156] See also Figure 4 , step S4 is specifically as follows:

[0157] Step S4.1, predefine the rank corresponding to each evaluation level;

[0158] In order to facilitate quantitative calculation, each evaluation level is first assigned a corresponding ordinal number, called "rank". The ranks of each level are shown in Table 3.

[0159] Table 3 Ranks corresponding to different levels

[0160] Low Moderate high Very high Grade Rank 5 3 1 0

[0161] Step S4.2, digitizing the construction safety risk status assessment level time series obtained within the early warning period according to the mapping relationship in step S4.1 to obtain a construction safety risk status assessment level reference sequence X0;

[0162] The safety risk control level assessment level time series obtained within the early warning period is digitized according to the mapping relationship in step S4.1 to obtain the safety risk control level assessment level observation sequence X1;

[0163] Step S4.3, using the grey correlation calculation method, calculate the grey correlation Gr of the construction safety risk status assessment level reference sequence X0 and the safety risk control level assessment level observation sequence X1 within this early warning cycle;

[0164] Step S4.3 is specifically as follows:

[0165] Step S4.3.1, find the difference sequence:

[0166] The reference sequence X0 of construction safety risk status assessment level has N construction safety risk status assessment level values, expressed as: x0(1), x0(2), ..., x0(N);

[0167] Assume that the safety risk control level assessment grade observation sequence X1 has N safety risk control level assessment grade values, expressed as: x1(1), x1(2), ..., x1(N);

[0168] Calculate the difference of each level Δ(k)=x0(k)-x1(k); where k=1, 2, ..., N; thus, the sequence of level differences is obtained: Δ=(Δ(1), Δ(2), ..., Δ(N));

[0169] Step S4.3.2, find the maximum difference MA and the minimum difference MI of the level difference:

[0170]

[0171] Step S4.3.3, calculate the correlation coefficient γ(k):

[0172]

[0173] Among them: ξ∈(0,1) is the resolution coefficient, which is generally taken as 0.5; the range of the correlation coefficient γ(k) is 0<γ(k)≤1.

[0174] Step S4.3.4, calculate the grey relational degree Gr:

[0175]

[0176] Thus, the grey correlation degree Gr of the construction safety risk status assessment level reference sequence X0 and the safety risk control level assessment level observation sequence X1 within this early warning cycle is obtained.

[0177] Step S4.4, according to the grey correlation degree Gr, according to the preset rules, the risk management controllability is obtained; then according to the risk management controllability, the comprehensive warning level of safety risk management is determined.

[0178] For example, the preset rules are as follows:

[0179] when When the risk management status is highly controllable, the warning level is blue;

[0180] when When the risk management status is controllable, the warning level is yellow;

[0181] when When the risk management status is basically controllable, the warning level is orange;

[0182] when , the risk management status is uncontrollable and the warning level is red.

[0183] The invention provides a comprehensive early warning method for railway tunnel construction safety risk management based on controllability, which has the following advantages:

[0184] According to the current situation of risk early warning demand in railway tunnel engineering construction, the present invention starts from the commonality of safety management, takes the humanistic principle, prevention principle, compulsory principle and other theories as guidance, and on the basis of risk identification and risk assessment, focuses on improving the level of safety risk management and control. On the basis of collecting normal operation data of construction site safety management work, a comprehensive safety risk early warning decision model based on risk controllability is constructed, which can timely discover problems and deficiencies in construction safety risk management and issue early warnings, fundamentally eliminate safety hazards, prevent accidents, and provide decision support for formulating more targeted risk classification management and control plans.

[0185] The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be pointed out that for ordinary technicians in this technical field, several improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the principle of the present invention. These improvements and modifications should also be considered as the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A comprehensive early warning method for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control based on controllability, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step S1, constructing a comprehensive early warning platform for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control; the comprehensive early warning platform for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control includes a construction safety risk status assessment module based on monitoring and measurement, a safety risk management and control level assessment module based on hidden danger investigation, and a safety risk management and control comprehensive early warning assessment module based on correlation analysis; Step S2, the monitoring and measurement-based construction safety risk status assessment module uses monitoring and measurement data to dynamically and comprehensively assess the safety risk level of the railway tunnel construction project and its closely related geological environment during the construction process to obtain a construction safety risk status assessment level; Step S3, the safety risk management level assessment module based on hidden danger investigation uses daily hidden danger investigation and safety inspection data to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the safety risk management level of the railway tunnel construction site to obtain a safety risk management level assessment grade; Step S4, inputting the construction safety risk status assessment level and the safety risk control level assessment level into the safety risk control comprehensive early warning assessment module based on correlation analysis, calculating the correlation between the construction safety risk status assessment level and the safety risk control level assessment level, and thereby determining the safety risk control comprehensive early warning level; According to the comprehensive warning level of safety risk management and control, a comprehensive warning of safety risk management and control is carried out.

2. According to claim 1, a comprehensive early warning method for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control based on controllability is characterized in that: Step S2 is specifically as follows: Step S2.1, establishing a construction safety risk status assessment index system according to the tunnel construction progress and key risk factors of the current tunnel construction period; the construction safety risk status assessment index system includes engineering geology related indicators, cofferdam deformation related indicators and hydrogeology related indicators; Step S2.2, determining the weight of each construction safety risk status assessment indicator in the construction safety risk status assessment indicator system; assuming that the construction safety risk status assessment indicator system includes F construction safety risk status assessment indicators, the weight of the fth construction safety risk status assessment indicator is w f , thus we get the weight vector W = (w1, w2, ..., w F ), where F = 1, 2, …, f; Step S2.3, in the current tunnel construction cycle, the dynamic monitoring data of each construction safety risk status assessment indicator is collected in real time by using monitoring and measuring equipment; therefore, for the current tunnel construction cycle, for each construction safety risk status assessment indicator, its monitoring data time series is collected; Step S2.4, establishing a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model; the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model obtains the construction safety risk status evaluation level of all construction safety risk status evaluation indicators in the current tunnel construction cycle: Step S2.4.1, pre-establish the construction safety risk status assessment level; map the monitoring data time series of all construction safety risk status assessment indicators into the fuzzy membership of each construction safety risk status assessment level, and generate a fuzzy judgment matrix; in the fuzzy judgment matrix, obtain the comprehensive fuzzy membership of each construction safety risk status assessment indicator; specifically, the comprehensive fuzzy membership of the f-th construction safety risk status assessment indicator is expressed as r f ; Step S2.4.2, based on the fuzzy evaluation matrix and combined with the weights obtained in step S2.2, the following formula is used to obtain the comprehensive fuzzy membership degree μ of all construction safety risk status assessment indicators: μ=∑w f ·r f (1) Step S2.4.3, according to the pre-established construction safety risk status level assessment standard, the comprehensive fuzzy membership μ is mapped to the corresponding construction safety risk status assessment level.

3. According to the controllability-based comprehensive early warning method for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: Step S3 is specifically as follows: Step S3.1, according to the relevant requirements of safety risk classification control and hidden danger investigation at the tunnel construction site, select indicators that can reflect the safety risk control level to form a comprehensive evaluation index system for the safety risk control level; the comprehensive evaluation index system for the safety risk control level includes indicators related to unsafe behaviors of operators, indicators related to unsafe conditions of construction equipment, indicators related to unsafe factors in the working environment, and indicators related to safety management defects; Step S3.2, constructing a matter-element model; specifically, assuming that the number of comprehensive evaluation indicators of safety risk control level is n, and m evaluation standard levels are established, then the classical domain R of the matter-element model is j and section domain R p , respectively expressed as: in: R j The matter-element model representing the jth evaluation criterion level; N j represents the evaluation effect of the object-element to be evaluated under the jth evaluation standard level; j = 1, 2, ..., m; c i represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the i-th safety risk control level; i = 1, 2, ..., n; V ji =v ji = ji ,b ji > represents the value range of the classic domain of the indicator, specifically the value range of the jth evaluation standard level of the i-th comprehensive evaluation indicator of the safety risk control level, that is: ji to b ji Between; also expressed as V ji N j About V i The value of​ p represents the total number of levels of the objects to be evaluated; V pi =v pi = pi ,b pi > represents the value range of the section domain, specifically the value range of the comprehensive evaluation index of the safety risk control level of all p of the object to be evaluated, that is: pi to b pi between;​ in: pi ,b pi >, for ji ,b ji >The union of all ranges of the comprehensive evaluation indicators of the i-th safety risk control level j=1,2,…,m;​​ Step S3.3, define the matter-element to be evaluated: Based on daily hidden danger investigation and safety inspection, the dynamic inspection data of all comprehensive evaluation indicators of safety risk control level in the current cycle are obtained to form a time series value. According to the indicator threshold system and scoring standard, the actual score of each comprehensive evaluation indicator of safety risk control level is obtained and standardized to obtain the standardized score, forming the matter-element R0 to be evaluated, which is expressed as: Among them: p0 refers to the name of the matter-element to be evaluated; v i is the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level of p0 i The value of the i-th safety risk control level comprehensive evaluation index c i Standardized score of Step S3.4, calculate the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level i The indicator weight ω i ; Step S3.5, calculate the correlation degree: Use the correlation function to calculate the correlation degree K j (v i ), that is: the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level i The standardized score v i The matter-element model R of the jth evaluation standard level j The correlation degree is specifically expressed as: |V ji |=|b ji -a ji | (6) in: ρ(v i ,V ji ) represents the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level i The standardized score v i The distance between the value range of the jth evaluation standard level of the i-th safety risk control level comprehensive evaluation indicator, that is, the level interval, ρ(v i ,V pi ) represents the comprehensive evaluation index c of the i-th safety risk control level i The standardized score v i With the entire level range V pi The distance, |V ji | indicates the value range of the indicator classic domain V ji distance; Step S3.6, using formula (9), obtain the matter-element R0 to be evaluated and the matter-element model R of the jth evaluation standard level j The comprehensive correlation K j (p0): Step S3.7, determine the safety risk management level assessment level: According to the maximum membership principle, the comprehensive correlation degree K is selected j (p0) is the highest evaluation standard level, which is determined as the safety risk control level assessment level of the object-element R0 to be evaluated; specifically, if the object-element R0 to be evaluated belongs to the jth evaluation standard level, it is expressed as This determines the safety risk management level assessment grade of the object-element R0 to be evaluated.

4. According to claim 1, a comprehensive early warning method for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control based on controllability is characterized in that: Step S4 is specifically as follows: Step S4.1, predefine the rank corresponding to each evaluation level; Step S4.2, digitizing the construction safety risk status assessment level time series obtained within the early warning period according to the mapping relationship in step S4.1 to obtain a construction safety risk status assessment level reference sequence X0; The safety risk control level assessment level time series obtained within the early warning period is digitized according to the mapping relationship in step S4.1 to obtain the safety risk control level assessment level observation sequence X1; Step S4.3, using the grey correlation calculation method, calculate the grey correlation Gr of the construction safety risk status assessment level reference sequence X0 and the safety risk control level assessment level observation sequence X1 within this early warning cycle; Step S4.4, according to the grey correlation degree Gr, according to the preset rules, the risk management controllability is obtained; then according to the risk management controllability, the comprehensive warning level of safety risk management is determined.

5. A comprehensive early warning method for railway tunnel construction safety risk management and control based on controllability according to claim 4, characterized in that: Step S4.3 is specifically as follows: Step S4.3.1, find the difference sequence: The reference sequence X0 of construction safety risk status assessment level has N construction safety risk status assessment level values, expressed as: x0(1), x0(2), ..., x0(N); Assume that the safety risk control level assessment grade observation sequence X1 has N safety risk control level assessment grade values, expressed as: x1(1), x1(2), ..., x1(N); Calculate the difference of each level Δ(k)=|x0(k)-x1(k)|; where k=1, 2, ..., N; thereby obtain the sequence of level differences: Δ=(Δ(1), Δ(2), ..., Δ(N)); Step S4.3.2, find the maximum difference MA and the minimum difference MI of the level difference: Step S4.3.3, calculate the correlation coefficient γ(k): Among them: ξ∈(0,1), is the resolution coefficient; Step S4.3.4, calculate the grey relational degree Gr: Thus, the grey correlation degree Gr of the construction safety risk status assessment level reference sequence X0 and the safety risk control level assessment level observation sequence X1 within this early warning cycle is obtained.

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