Damage probability estimation method

Abstract

The invention relates to a damage probability estimation and bullet usage planning method, which establishes an artillery attack damage estimation model based on different damage characteristics of an armored car and ground personnel, realizes rapid and accurate estimation of a target damage probability in an airborne equipment embedded environment, and plans an artillery bullet usage based on the estimated target damage probability. According to the target damage requirement, a pilot is assisted to adjust a combat strategy and optimize a combat plan in real time, resource waste is avoided, and optimization of a firepower attack scheme of the airborne fire control system and reasonable configuration of combat resources are achieved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of aviation fire control, and in particular relates to a method for estimating the damage probability and planning the amount of ammunition for a gun attack on the ground. Background Art

[0002] The current airborne fire control system believes that the "hit-to-kill" assessment model can no longer meet the requirements of combat missions. Relying on rough empirical estimates and limited actual combat data will lead to inaccurate use of firepower and waste of resources.

[0003] It provides data support for more accurate damage estimation. How to accurately and efficiently evaluate the damage capability to the target based on the measured target information and the weapon information mounted on the aircraft, carry out air-to-ground attack planning, timely adjust the attack strategy and firepower deployment, and maximize the effectiveness of airborne weapons has become an important issue that needs to be urgently solved in the current fire control system engineering. Summary of the invention

[0004] The technical problems to be solved by the present invention are:

[0005] In order to avoid the shortcomings of the prior art, the present invention provides a method for estimating the damage probability of artillery ground attacks and planning the amount of ammunition used, which is used to quickly and accurately estimate the target damage probability and plan the amount of artillery ammunition used.

[0006] In order to solve the above technical problems, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is:

[0007] A damage probability estimation method, characterized by comprising:

[0008] Calculate the radius of the ground dispersion circle based on the ground dispersion circle probability error of the artillery fired at the aircraft, the current flight altitude of the carrier aircraft, and the target distance;

[0009] Construct an artillery firing model based on the ground dispersion circle radius to simulate artillery firing;

[0010] Based on the artillery firing model, the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate several artillery firings, determine whether the target is hit each time, and calculate the damage probability of a single artillery firing target.

[0011] A further technical solution of the present invention is: in the step of calculating the radius of the ground scatter circle, the following formula is used:

[0012]

[0013] Where σ is the ground dispersion circular probability error of the gun fired from the aircraft, h f is the current flight altitude of the aircraft, R is the target distance, and mr is the radius of the ground scatter circle.

[0014] A further technical solution of the present invention: the step of constructing the artillery firing model based on the ground scatter circle radius includes:

[0015] Use the Monte Carlo method to simulate artillery shooting: the artillery has a 50% probability of falling within a circle with the ground scatter circle radius as its radius, and a 50% probability of falling outside the circle and within a circle with a radius of three times the ground scatter circle radius;

[0016] Get the horizontal and vertical coordinates of the random hit point.

[0017] A further technical solution of the present invention is: in the step of obtaining the horizontal coordinate and the vertical coordinate of the random hit point, the following formula is used:

[0018]

[0019] Among them, X random , Y random are the horizontal and vertical coordinates of the random hit point, r random is the distance random number, α random It is a random angle number in the range of 0 to 360°.

[0020] A further technical solution of the present invention is as follows: in the step of calculating the damage probability of a single artillery firing target, when the target is an armored vehicle target, the step includes:

[0021] Get the length L of the armored vehicle target c and width W c , determine each random hit point P random Is it in

[0022] The number of hits increases if the vertex is within the rectangle. After N simulations, the total number of hits is N. hit , then the probability of damage to the armored vehicle is

[0023] A further technical solution of the present invention is as follows: in the step of calculating the damage probability of a single artillery firing target, when the target is a human target, the step includes:

[0024] Get the length of the personnel target area L p and W p , the radius of the killing area of ​​artillery to personnel R d ;

[0025] Get a random hit point P random As the center of the circle, with R d A is the circular killing area with radius kill ;by A is a rectangular target area with vertices tgt ; Find the killing area Akill and target area A tgt The intersection area A is:

[0026] A=A kill ∩A tgt

[0027] Calculate the intersection area A for each Monte Carlo simulation i Its area Find the area coverage

[0028]

[0029] Calculate the probability of killing a person by firing a single gun d :

[0030]

[0031] A method of ammunition planning, which calculates the number of artillery based on the estimated probability of target damage or the expected probability of target damage, uses the following formula:

[0032]

[0033] Among them, n wpn is the required number of artillery pieces, and P is the expected probability of target damage.

[0034] A computer system, characterized in that it comprises: one or more processors, and a computer-readable storage medium for storing one or more programs, wherein when the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors implement the above-mentioned method.

[0035] A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that it stores computer-executable instructions, which are used to implement the above method when executed.

[0036] A computer program product, characterized by comprising computer executable instructions, wherein the instructions are used to implement the above method when executed.

[0037] The beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0038] The present invention provides a method for damage probability estimation and ammunition usage planning. Based on the different damage characteristics of armored vehicles and ground personnel, an artillery attack damage estimation model is established to achieve rapid and accurate estimation of target damage probability in an embedded environment of airborne equipment. The artillery ammunition usage is planned based on the estimated target damage probability, and the pilot is assisted to adjust the combat strategy in real time according to the target damage requirements, optimize the combat plan, avoid resource waste, and achieve optimization of the firepower strike plan of the airborne fire control system and reasonable allocation of combat resources. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0039] The drawings are only for the purpose of illustrating particular embodiments and are not to be considered limiting of the present invention. Like reference symbols denote like components throughout the drawings.

[0040] Figure 1 Flow chart of the method of the present invention.

[0041] Figure 2 Schematic diagram of personnel targets.

[0042] Figure 3 Schematic diagram of the kill area and target area coverage. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0043] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention. In addition, the technical features involved in the various embodiments of the present invention described below can be combined with each other as long as they do not conflict with each other.

[0044] It should be noted that the terms "first", "second", etc. in the specification and claims of the present invention and the above-mentioned drawings are used to distinguish similar objects, and are not necessarily used to describe a specific order or sequence. It should be understood that the terms used in this way can be interchangeable where appropriate, so that the embodiments of the present invention described herein can be implemented in an order other than those illustrated or described herein. In addition, the terms "including" and "having" and any variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusions, for example, a process, method, system, product or device that includes a series of steps or units is not necessarily limited to those steps or units that are clearly listed, but may include other steps or units that are not clearly listed or inherent to these processes, methods, products or devices.

[0045] According to the battlefield situation and intelligence information, and based on the different damage characteristics of armored vehicles and ground personnel, the present invention provides a method for estimating the damage probability and planning the amount of ammunition for airborne artillery attacking ground personnel and armored vehicles, which can quickly and accurately estimate the damage effect, reasonably allocate artillery, avoid waste of resources, and provide pilots with artillery use suggestions and combat decision support during combat.

[0046] According to the battlefield situation and intelligence information, and based on the different damage characteristics of armored vehicles and ground personnel, a method for estimating the probability of damage to ground personnel and armored vehicle targets by airborne artillery and a method for planning the amount of ammunition used are provided. The damage effect can be quickly and accurately estimated, artillery can be reasonably allocated to avoid waste of resources, and artillery use suggestions and combat decision-making support can be provided to pilots during combat.

[0047] The damage probability estimation method includes:

[0048] Calculate the radius of the ground dispersion circle based on the ground dispersion circle probability error of the artillery fired at the aircraft, the current flight altitude of the carrier aircraft, and the target distance;

[0049] Simulate artillery firing models based on ground dispersion circle radius;

[0050] Based on the artillery firing model, the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate several artillery firings, determine whether the target is hit each time, and calculate the damage probability of a single artillery firing target.

[0051] The ammunition planning method includes:

[0052] The number of artillery pieces is calculated based on the estimated probability of target damage and the expected probability of target damage.

[0053] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the present invention, the present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with specific embodiments.

[0054] Example 1

[0055] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for estimating the damage probability of an artillery ground attack, comprising the following steps:

[0056] Step 1: Obtain the ground dispersion circular probability error σ of the gun fired at the aircraft and the current flight altitude h of the carrier aircraft f , target distance R, calculate the ground scatter circle radius mr:

[0057]

[0058] Step 2: Use the Monte Carlo method to simulate artillery fire. The artillery has a 50% chance of falling within the ground scatter circle with a radius of mr, and a 50% chance of falling outside the circle and within a circle with a radius of 3 times mr. Calculate the random hit point P random The horizontal coordinate X random and the ordinate Y random .

[0059] Generate a random number n in the range of 0 to 100. When 0<n≤50, generate a random distance number r in the range of 0 to mr. random ; When 50<n≤100, generate a random distance number r in the range of mr~3mr random ;

[0060] Generate a random angle number α in the range of 0 to 360° random ;

[0061] Calculate the random hit point P random The horizontal coordinate Xrandom and the ordinate Y random for:

[0062]

[0063] Step 3: Get the target type. If the target type is an armored vehicle, proceed to step 4. If the target type is a personnel target, proceed to step 5.

[0064] Step 4: When the artillery fires at the armored vehicle target, hitting the armored vehicle can cause damage to the armored vehicle. Use the Monte Carlo method to simulate N times (assuming N = 10,000) of artillery firing, determine whether each time hits the target, and calculate the damage probability of a single artillery firing at the armored vehicle target.

[0065] Get the length L of the armored vehicle target c and width W c , determine each random hit point P random Is it in The number of hits increases if the vertices are within the rectangle. Simulate N times and get the total number of hits N. hit , then the probability of damage to the armored vehicle is

[0066] Step 5: When artillery fires at personnel targets, personnel in the artillery killing area may be injured. Using the Monte Carlo method, simulate N times (assuming N = 10,000) of artillery firing, and calculate the area coverage of the personnel target area and the artillery killing area to obtain the injury probability of a single artillery fire at a personnel target.

[0067] Get the length of the personnel target area L p and W p , the radius of the killing area of ​​artillery to personnel R d .

[0068] Get a random hit point P random As the center of the circle, with R d A is the circular killing area with radius kill ;by A is a rectangular target area with vertices tgt . Find the killing area A kill and target area A tgt The intersection area A is:

[0069] A=A kill ∩A tgt (3)

[0070] Calculate the intersection area A for each Monte Carlo simulation i Its area Find the area coverage

[0071]

[0072] Calculate the probability of killing a person by firing a single gun d :

[0073]

[0074] Example 2

[0075] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for estimating the damage probability of an artillery ground attack, comprising the following steps:

[0076] Get the expected probability of target damage P, assume that each gun fires independently, and calculate the number of guns required n wpn :

[0077]

[0078] The above description is only a specific implementation mode of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any technician familiar with the technical field can easily think of various equivalent modifications or substitutions within the technical scope disclosed in the present invention, and these modifications or substitutions should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for estimating damage probability, characterized in that: include: Calculate the radius of the ground dispersion circle based on the ground dispersion circle probability error of the artillery fired at the aircraft, the current flight altitude of the carrier aircraft, and the target distance; Construct an artillery firing model based on the ground dispersion circle radius to simulate artillery firing; Based on the artillery firing model, the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate several artillery firings, determine whether the target is hit each time, and calculate the damage probability of a single artillery firing target.

2. The damage probability estimation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In the step of calculating the radius of the ground scatter circle, the following formula is used: Where σ is the ground dispersion circular probability error of the gun fired from the aircraft, h f is the current flight altitude of the aircraft, R is the target distance, and mr is the radius of the ground scatter circle.

3. The damage probability estimation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of constructing the artillery firing model based on the ground scatter circle radius includes: Use the Monte Carlo method to simulate artillery shooting: the artillery has a 50% probability of falling within a circle with the ground scatter circle radius as its radius, and a 50% probability of falling outside the circle and within a circle with a radius of three times the ground scatter circle radius; Get the horizontal and vertical coordinates of the random hit point.

4. The damage probability estimation method according to claim 3, characterized in that: In the step of obtaining the horizontal coordinate and the vertical coordinate of the random hit point, the following formula is used: Among them, X random , Y random are the horizontal and vertical coordinates of the random hit point, r random is the distance random number, α random is 0 ～ A random number of angles within 360°.

5. The damage probability estimation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of calculating the damage probability of a single artillery fire target, when the target is an armored vehicle target, includes: Get the length L of the armored vehicle target c and width W c , determine each random hit point P random Is it in The number of hits increases if the vertex is within the rectangle. After N simulations, the total number of hits is N. hit , then the probability of damage to the armored vehicle is 6. The damage prediction probability method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of calculating the probability of damage to a target fired by a single artillery piece, when the target is a target equipped with personnel, includes: Get the length of the personnel target area L p and W p , the radius of the killing area of ​​artillery to personnel R d ; Get a random hit point P random As the center of the circle, with R d A is the circular killing area with radius kill ;by A is a rectangular target area with vertices tgt ; Find the killing area A kill and target area A tgt The intersection area A is: A=A kill ∩ A tgt Calculate the intersection area A for each Monte Carlo simulation i Its area Find the area coverage Calculate the probability of killing a person by firing a single gun d :

7. A method for ammunition planning, characterized in that: The number of guns is calculated based on the estimated probability of target damage or the expected probability of target damage in claim 1, using the following formula: Among them, n wpn is the required number of artillery pieces, and P is the expected probability of target damage.

8. A computer system, characterized in that include: One or more processors, a computer-readable storage medium, for storing one or more programs, wherein when the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors implement the method described in any one of claims 1 or 7.

9. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that Computer executable instructions are stored, and when the instructions are executed, they are used to implement the method according to any one of claims 1 or 7.

10. A computer program product, characterized in that The method comprises computer executable instructions, which are used to implement the method according to any one of claims 1 or 7 when being executed.

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