Urban renewal-oriented low-carbon toughness evaluation method

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of urban planning and sustainable development, in particular to a low-carbon toughness evaluation method for urban renewal. Comprising the following steps: data collection and analysis; formulating a scheme; evaluating carbon emission; evaluating the toughness level; constructing a low-carbon toughness index system; comparing and optimizing the scheme; and updating scheme correction. The invention provides a low-carbon toughness evaluation index system for city renewal, through a scientific and reasonable evaluation method, the low-carbon performance in the city renewal process is comprehensively evaluated, and city low-carbon transformation and toughness improvement are promoted; stable operation of the project under the low-carbon emission condition is ensured by evaluating the low-carbon toughness operation condition of the urban update project; by evaluating the low-carbon toughness condition of the city, the city region urgently needing city updating and reconstruction is found, and the city updating plan and implementation scheme are optimized.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of urban planning and sustainable development technology, and in particular to a low-carbon resilience assessment method for urban renewal. Background Art

[0002] With the acceleration of global climate change and urbanization, cities are facing more and more challenges. In order to meet these challenges, cities need to improve their low-carbon resilience, that is, the city's ability to adapt and recover in the face of climate change and other shocks. Urban renewal is an important measure to achieve sustainable urban development, but high-quality urban areas often have high carbon emissions. Urban renewal projects that reduce carbon emissions are difficult to adapt to the complex market environment and achieve construction goals in terms of investment and financing. There are problems such as high carbon emissions in the resilience construction process and insufficient resilience in low-carbon construction. Existing urban renewal projects often lack effective low-carbon resilience assessment tools during implementation, making it difficult to balance low-carbon goals with resilience goals. Therefore, it is urgent to build a scientific and systematic low-carbon resilience assessment indicator system to explore, guide and supervise the low-carbon implementation effects of urban renewal projects. Summary of the invention

[0003] The present invention provides a low-carbon resilience assessment index system for urban renewal. Through scientific and reasonable evaluation methods, the low-carbon performance in the urban renewal process is comprehensively evaluated to promote urban low-carbon transformation and resilience improvement. By evaluating the operation of the low-carbon resilience of urban renewal projects, the smooth operation of projects under low-carbon emission conditions is ensured. By evaluating the low-carbon resilience of the city, urban areas that urgently need urban renewal are discovered, and urban renewal plans and implementation plans are optimized.

[0004] The technical solution adopted by the present invention is: a low-carbon resilience assessment method for urban renewal, comprising the following steps:

[0005] Step 1: Obtain data on geography, hydrology, meteorology, climate, land use, infrastructure, socio-economics, and buildings in the target area of ​​the urban renewal scheme to be evaluated;

[0006] Step 2: Formulate an urban renewal plan based on the target area data;

[0007] Step 3: Based on the target area data, construct an energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission accounting model to evaluate the carbon emission level of the target area;

[0008] Step 4: Based on the target area data, build a risk measurement and accounting model to assess the comprehensive resilience level of the target area;

[0009] Step 5: Based on the urban renewal plan of the target area, a low-carbon and resilient balance construction indicator system for urban renewal is constructed to evaluate the balance level of low-carbon and resilient urban renewal plans;

[0010] Step 6: Compare the balance levels of low-carbon resilience of different urban renewal plans and determine the indicators that need to be optimized to affect the low-carbon resilience of the target area;

[0011] Step 7: Revise the urban renewal plan for the target area based on the indicators to be optimized for low-carbon resilience.

[0012] As a further improvement of the present invention, the comprehensive data of the target area of ​​the urban renewal plan to be evaluated in the step one includes but is not limited to geographic and hydrological information, meteorological and climate data, land use conditions, infrastructure conditions, socio-economic data and building information. The geographic and hydrological information includes topography and water system distribution. The meteorological and climate data include historical temperature and precipitation. The land use conditions include the proportion of various types of land use and green space coverage. The infrastructure conditions include transportation networks and water supply and drainage systems. The socio-economic data include population structure and economic output. The building information includes construction age and energy consumption conditions.

[0013] As a further improvement of the present invention, the step 2 uses GIS and database technology to achieve multi-dimensional and high-precision depiction of the target area and propose an urban renewal plan that can be evaluated.

[0014] As a further improvement of the present invention, the step three also includes data preprocessing technology, which performs data cleaning, missing value filling, outlier detection and elimination on the total energy consumption, consumption ratio of various energy types, industrial production activity data, transportation conditions, and residents' living energy consumption data to ensure that the data quality meets the requirements of model construction, wherein various energy types include coal, oil, natural gas, and renewable energy;

[0015] The step three constructs a calculation model covering energy consumption and carbon emission calculation modules. The energy consumption module is responsible for calculating the total carbon emissions based on the consumption of various energy sources and the corresponding carbon emission factors; the carbon emission calculation module uses the carbon emission calculation method recommended by the IPCC to ensure the authority and accuracy of the calculation results;

[0016] The assessment content of step three includes total carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity, and carbon emission structure.

[0017] As a further improvement of the present invention, the step 4 also includes data preprocessing technology to clean, remove duplicates, and normalize geographic information, climate characteristics, economic indicators, population structure, infrastructure conditions, and historical disaster records;

[0018] The fourth step is to construct a targeted risk measurement model based on the characteristics of the target area, identify and quantify various risks that may be faced in the area, including but not limited to natural disaster risks, economic risks, and social risks. Natural disaster risks include floods and earthquakes, economic risks include market fluctuations and financial crises, and social risks include public health events and political turmoil.

[0019] The assessment content of step four includes infrastructure resilience, economic resilience, social resilience, and environmental resilience.

[0020] As a further improvement of the present invention, the step 5 constructs a set of low-carbon resilience balanced comprehensive indicator system, wherein the first-level indicators include climate regulation, carbon emission control, biodiversity protection, and resource utilization efficiency; the second-level indicators set specific quantitative indicators for each first-level indicator, including heat island effect mitigation rate, carbon emissions per unit area, and green space coverage rate.

[0021] The analytic hierarchy process and principal component analysis methods are used to determine the weight of each indicator to reflect the importance of each indicator in the low-carbon resilience assessment;

[0022] The fifth step constructs multiple scenarios based on different urban renewal plans, compares the low-carbon levels and resilience levels of multiple plans, and normalizes the two indicators into percentages. There are mainly three types of plans: ecological resilience type (low-carbon level / resilience level <1), green low-carbon type (low-carbon level / resilience level >1), and low-carbon resilience balance type (low-carbon level / resilience level = 1).

[0023] As a further improvement of the present invention, the hierarchical analysis weight determination method of the non-expert system performs value comparison and level judgment in the comparison of two elements. It is difficult to construct a matrix with consistent order by adopting a non-proportional level assignment method. In order to check the coordination between the importance of each element, so as to avoid the contradiction that A is more important than B, B is more important than C, and C is more important than A, the single ranking relationship is checked by calculating the consistency index, where λ max is the largest eigenvalue of the matrix, λ max ≥n,

[0024]

[0025] W i =(0.0461, 0.0696, 0.0317, 0.1589, 0.2375, 0.3504, 0.1055)

[0026]

[0027] As a further improvement of the present invention, the balance indicators of low-carbon resilience of the urban renewal plan in step six mainly include two types: low-carbon indicators and resilience indicators. The model is used for simulation and prediction, and the changes in carbon emissions, resilience and balance of the city under different plans are analyzed. According to the urban renewal goals of the target area, the indicator elements to be optimized that affect the low-carbon resilience of the target area are determined.

[0028] Beneficial effects of the present invention:

[0029] (1) Comprehensive and objective: This paper adopts a set of scientific and reasonable indicator systems and evaluation methods, which can comprehensively and objectively evaluate the low-carbon resilience level of the city and avoid the influence of subjective factors.

[0030] (2) Highly targeted: The present invention constructs a set of personalized indicator systems and evaluation methods based on the characteristics and needs of the city, which can better reflect the actual situation and development needs of the city.

[0031] (3) Decision support: The evaluation results of the present invention can provide decision support for urban renewal, help urban managers formulate more scientific and reasonable urban renewal strategies and plans, and improve the city’s low-carbon resilience level.

[0032] (4) Strong operability: The evaluation method of the present invention is simple and easy to implement, the required data is easy to collect and process, the evaluation process is transparent and fair, and the evaluation results have high credibility and operability. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0033] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of a low-carbon resilience assessment method for urban renewal according to the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0034] In order to make the technical problems, technical solutions and beneficial effects to be solved by the present application more clearly understood, the present application is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present application and are not used to limit the present application.

[0035] The present invention provides a low-carbon resilience assessment method for urban renewal, comprising the following steps:

[0036] Step 1: Obtain data on geography, hydrology, meteorology, climate, land use, infrastructure, socio-economics, and buildings in the target area of ​​the urban renewal scheme to be evaluated.

[0037] The comprehensive data of the target area of ​​the urban renewal plan to be evaluated includes, but is not limited to, geographical and hydrological information, meteorological and climate data, land use status, infrastructure status, socio-economic data and building information. The geographical and hydrological information includes topography and water system distribution. The meteorological and climate data includes historical temperature and precipitation. The land use status includes the proportion of various types of land use and green space coverage. The infrastructure status includes transportation network and water supply and drainage system. The socio-economic data includes population structure and economic aggregate. The building information includes construction age and energy consumption status.

[0038] Step 2: Develop an urban renewal plan based on the target area data.

[0039] Use GIS and database technology to achieve multi-dimensional, high-precision depiction of target areas and propose urban renewal plans that can be evaluated;

[0040] Step 3: Based on the target area data, construct an energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission accounting model to evaluate the carbon emission level of the target area.

[0041] Data preprocessing technology is used to clean the total energy consumption, the consumption ratio of various energy types, industrial production activity data, transportation conditions, and residents' living energy consumption data, including data cleaning, missing value filling, outlier detection and elimination, to ensure that the data quality meets the requirements of model construction. Among them, various energy types include coal, oil, natural gas, and renewable energy.

[0042] Table 1: Low-carbon evaluation index system for urban renewal in target areas

[0043]

[0044]

[0045] Construct an accounting model that covers energy consumption and carbon emission calculation modules. The energy consumption module is responsible for calculating the total carbon emissions based on the consumption of various types of energy and the corresponding carbon emission factors; the carbon emission calculation module uses the carbon emission calculation method recommended by the IPCC to ensure the authority and accuracy of the accounting results.

[0046] The assessment content includes total carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity, and carbon emission structure;

[0047] Step 4: Based on the target area data, build a risk measurement and accounting model to evaluate the comprehensive resilience level of the target area.

[0048] Data preprocessing technology is used to clean, remove duplicates, and normalize geographic information, climate characteristics, economic indicators, population structure, infrastructure conditions, and historical disaster records.

[0049] Table 2: Resilience assessment index system for urban renewal in target areas

[0050]

[0051] According to the characteristics of the target area, a targeted risk measurement model is constructed to identify and quantify various risks that may be faced in the region, including but not limited to natural disaster risks, economic risks, and social risks. Natural disaster risks include floods and earthquakes, economic risks include market fluctuations and financial crises, and social risks include public health events and political turmoil.

[0052] The assessment includes infrastructure resilience, economic resilience, social resilience, and environmental resilience;

[0053] Step 5: Based on the urban renewal plan of the target area, construct an indicator system for the balance between low carbon and resilience of urban renewal, and evaluate the balance level of low carbon resilience of urban renewal plans.

[0054] Construct a set of low-carbon resilient balanced comprehensive indicator system, among which the first-level indicators include climate regulation, carbon emission control, biodiversity protection, and resource utilization efficiency; the second-level indicators set specific quantitative indicators for each first-level indicator, including heat island effect mitigation rate, carbon emissions per unit area, and green space coverage rate.

[0055] Table 3: Scale assignment table of AHP evaluation matrix

[0056] definition Scale assignment Both indicators are equally important 1 One metric is slightly more important than the other 3 One indicator is strongly more important than another indicator 7 One indicator is definitely more important than another 9 Pairwise importance is between the two adjacent degrees mentioned above 2，4，6，8 The ratio of index I to index J is the reciprocal of index J to index I reciprocal

[0057] The analytic hierarchy process and principal component analysis method are used to determine the weight of each indicator to reflect the importance of each indicator in the low-carbon resilience assessment. The analytic hierarchy process weight determination method of the non-expert system performs value comparison and level judgment in the comparison of two elements. It is difficult to construct a matrix with consistent order by adopting the non-equiproportional level assignment method. In order to test the coordination between the importance of each element, so as to avoid the contradiction that A is more important than B, B is more important than C, and C is more important than A, the single ranking relationship is tested by calculating the consistency index, where λ max is the largest eigenvalue of the matrix, λ max ≥n,

[0058]

[0059] W i =(0.0461, 0.0696, 0.0317, 0.1589, 0.2375, 0.3504, 0.1055)

[0060]

[0061] Based on different urban renewal schemes, multiple scenarios were constructed, and the low-carbon level and resilience level of multiple schemes were compared. The two indicators were normalized into percentages. There are mainly three types of schemes: ecological resilience (low-carbon level / resilience level <1), green low-carbon (low-carbon level / resilience level>1), and low-carbon resilience balance (low-carbon level / resilience level=1).

[0062] Step 6: Compare the balance levels of low-carbon resilience of different urban renewal plans and determine the indicators that need to be optimized to affect the low-carbon resilience of the target area.

[0063] The low-carbon resilience balance indicators of urban renewal plans mainly include low-carbon indicators and resilience indicators. The model is used for simulation and prediction to analyze the changes in carbon emissions, resilience and balance of cities under different plans. According to the urban renewal goals of the target area, the indicator elements that affect the low-carbon resilience of the target area to be optimized are determined.

[0064] Step 7: Revise the urban renewal plan for the target area based on the indicators to be optimized for low-carbon resilience.

[0065] Example:

[0066] When implementing an urban renewal plan, it is first necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of the target area, including energy efficiency assessment of existing buildings, optimization of transportation systems, and green transformation of public spaces. These measures can effectively improve the city's low-carbon level and resilience level. For example, by adding green roofs and building rain gardens, the city's ecological resilience can be improved, while reducing the urban heat island effect and energy consumption. In terms of transportation systems, optimizing public transportation networks and improving their accessibility and efficiency can reduce the use of private cars, reduce carbon emissions, and enhance the city's ability to respond to emergencies.

[0067] When evaluating the low-carbon resilience balance level of different urban renewal plans, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the impact of the plan on urban carbon emissions, energy consumption, traffic congestion, public health and other aspects. Through simulation and prediction models, urban changes under different plans can be predicted, so as to select the plan that best meets the low-carbon resilience balance requirements of the target area. For example, if a plan can significantly improve the city's disaster response capabilities while reducing carbon emissions, then this plan may be an ideal low-carbon resilience balance plan.

[0068] Finally, according to the evaluation results, necessary adjustments and optimizations are made to the urban renewal plan, including increasing investment in green infrastructure, adjusting energy use strategies, improving community service facilities, etc. Through these adjustments, it can be ensured that the urban renewal plan can not only promote low-carbon development, but also improve the overall resilience of the city and provide residents with a safer, healthier and more sustainable living environment.

[0069] In summary, the low-carbon resilience assessment method for urban renewal of the present invention can achieve the dual goals of urban renewal programs in low-carbon development and improving urban resilience through systematic evaluation and optimization. This method not only helps to guide urban planners and decision makers to formulate more scientific and reasonable urban renewal strategies, but also has important significance for promoting sustainable urban development. By implementing the low-carbon resilience assessment method, it can be ensured that urban renewal projects can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy efficiency while enhancing the city's ability to adapt to climate change and natural disasters, thereby creating a more livable and safe environment for urban residents.

[0070] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit the same. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments may still be modified, or some of the technical features thereof may be replaced by equivalents. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A low-carbon resilience assessment method for urban renewal, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: Obtain data on geography, hydrology, meteorology, climate, land use, infrastructure, socio-economics, and buildings in the target area of ​​the urban renewal scheme to be evaluated; Step 2: Formulate an urban renewal plan based on the target area data; Step 3: Based on the target area data, construct an energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission accounting model to evaluate the carbon emission level of the target area; Step 4: Based on the target area data, build a risk measurement and accounting model to assess the comprehensive resilience level of the target area; Step 5: Based on the urban renewal plan of the target area, a low-carbon and resilient balance construction indicator system for urban renewal is constructed to evaluate the balance level of low-carbon and resilient urban renewal plans; Step 6: Compare the balance levels of low-carbon resilience of different urban renewal plans and determine the indicators that need to be optimized to affect the low-carbon resilience of the target area; Step 7: Revise the urban renewal plan for the target area based on the indicators to be optimized for low-carbon resilience.

2. A low-carbon resilience assessment method for urban renewal according to claim 1, characterized in that: The comprehensive data of the target area of ​​the urban renewal plan to be evaluated in step one includes but is not limited to geographic and hydrological information, meteorological and climate data, land use conditions, infrastructure conditions, socio-economic data and building information. The geographic and hydrological information includes topography and water system distribution. The meteorological and climate data include historical temperature and precipitation. The land use conditions include the proportion of various types of land use and green space coverage. The infrastructure conditions include transportation networks and water supply and drainage systems. The socio-economic data include population structure and economic output. The building information includes construction age and energy consumption.

3. A low-carbon resilience assessment method for urban renewal according to claim 1, characterized in that: The second step uses GIS and database technology to achieve a multi-dimensional, high-precision depiction of the target area and propose an urban renewal plan that can be evaluated.

4. A low-carbon resilience assessment method for urban renewal according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step three also includes data preprocessing technology, which includes data cleaning, missing value filling, outlier detection and elimination for the total energy consumption, consumption ratio of various energy types, industrial production activity data, transportation conditions, and residents' living energy consumption data to ensure that the data quality meets the requirements of model construction. Among them, various energy types include coal, oil, natural gas, and renewable energy; The step three constructs a calculation model covering energy consumption and carbon emission calculation modules. The energy consumption module is responsible for calculating the total carbon emissions based on the consumption of various energy sources and the corresponding carbon emission factors; the carbon emission calculation module uses the carbon emission calculation method recommended by the IPCC to ensure the authority and accuracy of the calculation results; The assessment content of step three includes total carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity, and carbon emission structure.

5. The low-carbon resilience assessment method for urban renewal according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The step 4 also includes data preprocessing technology, which performs data cleaning, deduplication, and normalization on geographic information, climate characteristics, economic indicators, population structure, infrastructure conditions, and historical disaster records; The fourth step is to construct a targeted risk measurement model based on the characteristics of the target area, identify and quantify various risks that may be faced in the area, including but not limited to natural disaster risks, economic risks, and social risks. Natural disaster risks include floods and earthquakes, economic risks include market fluctuations and financial crises, and social risks include public health events and political turmoil. The assessment content of step four includes infrastructure resilience, economic resilience, social resilience, and environmental resilience.

6. A low-carbon resilience assessment method for urban renewal according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step 5 constructs a set of low-carbon resilience-balanced comprehensive indicator systems, where the first-level indicators include climate regulation, carbon emission control, biodiversity protection, and resource utilization efficiency; the second-level indicators set specific quantitative indicators for each first-level indicator, including heat island effect mitigation rate, carbon emissions per unit area, and green space coverage rate. The analytic hierarchy process and principal component analysis methods are used to determine the weight of each indicator to reflect the importance of each indicator in the low-carbon resilience assessment; The fifth step constructs multiple scenarios based on different urban renewal plans, compares the low-carbon levels and resilience levels of multiple plans, and normalizes the two indicators into percentages. There are mainly three types of plans: ecological resilience type (low-carbon level / resilience level <1), green low-carbon type (low-carbon level / resilience level >1), and low-carbon resilience balance type (low-carbon level / resilience level = 1).

7. A low-carbon resilience assessment method for urban renewal according to claim 6, characterized in that: In the non-expert system, the hierarchical analysis weight determination method performs value comparison and level judgment in the comparison of two elements. It is difficult to construct a matrix with consistent order by adopting the non-equiproportional level assignment method. In order to test the coordination between the importance of each element, so as to avoid the contradiction that A is more important than B, B is more important than C, and C is more important than A, the single ranking relationship is tested by calculating the consistency index, where λ max is the largest eigenvalue of the matrix, λ max ≥n, W i ＝(0.0461，0.0696，0.0317，0.1589，0.2375，0.3504，0.1055) 8. The low-carbon resilience assessment method for urban renewal according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The balance indicators of low-carbon resilience of the urban renewal plan in step six mainly include two types: low-carbon indicators and resilience indicators. The model is used for simulation and prediction, and the changes in carbon emissions, resilience and balance of the city under different plans are analyzed. According to the urban renewal goals of the target area, the indicator elements that affect the low-carbon resilience of the target area to be optimized are determined.

Images