Method for predicting influence of standby characteristics of new energy power system on power balance

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting the influence of standby characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance, and belongs to the field of power systems.The prediction method comprises the steps that firstly, according to a time sequence, measured values of parameters used for showing the influence of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on power balance in a target system are obtained; determining a predicted value of the parameter at the next moment based on the obtained measured value of the parameter and a preset influence factor of the influence of the value of the current parameter on the value of the parameter at the next moment, and determining a predicted value of the parameter at the next moment according to the determined predicted value of the parameter at the next moment. And predicting an influence index of influence of the new energy power system standby characteristics of the target system at the next moment on power balance. The method has the advantages that the power system unit in the target system can be adjusted according to the result, so that reliable power supply of the power system is ensured.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of new energy power systems, and in particular to a method for predicting the impact of standby characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance. Background Art

[0002] The reserve capacity of the power system is usually provided by conventional units such as thermal power. In recent years, with the increasing severity of environmental pollution, renewable energy such as wind energy and solar energy has been vigorously developed, and its proportion in the reserve capacity of the power system has continued to expand.

[0003] However, as the proportion of renewable energy power generation reserve capacity in the power system configuration continues to increase, its own instability, volatility and other characteristics will affect the safety, reliability and quality of power grid operation, causing fluctuations in the power balance of the power grid. Therefore, in order to ensure the reliable power supply of the power system, at this stage, it is necessary to predict the impact of the reserve characteristics of renewable energy power systems on power balance, but in the existing technology, there is a lack of effective prediction methods. Summary of the invention

[0004] The present invention provides a method for predicting the index of influence of the standby characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance, so as to solve the defect of the prior art that there is a lack of an effective method for predicting the influence of the standby characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance.

[0005] On the one hand, the present invention provides a method for predicting the impact of the standby characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance, characterized in that the prediction method includes: obtaining, according to time sequence, the measured values ​​of parameters in the target system used to show the impact of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance; determining the predicted value of the parameter at the next moment based on the obtained measured value of the parameter and the impact factor of the impact of the preset current parameter value on the parameter value at the next moment; predicting the impact index of the impact of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system of the target system at the next moment on the power balance according to the determined predicted value of the parameter at the next moment, wherein the impact index is used to indicate the impact of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system in the power system on the power balance; according to the predicted impact index at the next moment, adjusting the power system units in the target system to ensure reliable power supply of the power system.

[0006] Preferably, before obtaining the measured values ​​of the parameters that affect the power balance caused by the standby characteristics of the new energy power system in the target system according to the time sequence, the prediction method also includes: determining the parameters used to show the impact of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance according to the determined impact index.

[0007] Preferably, the parameters used to show the impact of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on power balance include at least one of the following parameters: total photovoltaic output power, total wind power output power, total thermal power output power, total system load, and total system output power.

[0008] Preferably, the measured values ​​of the parameters obtained according to the time sequence are expressed by the following formula:

[0009]

[0010] in, Indicates the total photovoltaic output power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments are Indicates the total wind power output power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments are Indicates the total output power of thermal power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments are The total load of the system is at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments are Indicates the total output power of the system at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments.

[0011] Preferably, the impact factor is represented by the following formula:

[0012]

[0013] in, is the influence factor of the current parameter value on the parameter value at the next moment, P' g,min is the total photovoltaic output power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The minimum value of the measured values ​​at these m moments, is the total photovoltaic output power at t i The measured value at this moment, P' f,min is the total wind power output at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The minimum value of the measured values ​​at these m moments, is the total wind power output at t iThe measured value at this moment, P' h,min is the total output power of thermal power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The minimum value of the measured values ​​at these m moments, is the total output power of thermal power at t i The measured value at this moment, P' z,min is the total system load at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The minimum value of the measured values ​​at these m moments, is the total system load at t i The measured value at this moment.

[0014] Preferably, the predicted value of the parameter at the next moment is determined by the following formula:

[0015]

[0016] in, is the predicted value of the total photovoltaic output power at the next moment, is the predicted value of the total wind power output at the next moment, is the predicted value of the total thermal power output at the next moment, is the predicted value of the total system load at the next moment, is the measured value of the total system output power at the next moment, They are t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The influencing factor of these m moments.

[0017] Preferably, after determining the predicted value of the parameter that the standby characteristics of the new energy power system at the next moment affect the power balance, the prediction method also includes: normalizing the predicted value of the parameter at the next moment to obtain a processed normalized value; and determining an influence index of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system at the next moment that affects the power balance based on the normalized value.

[0018] Preferably, the power system units in the target system are adjusted according to the predicted impact index at the next moment, including: when the predicted impact index at the next moment is higher than a preset threshold, reducing the standby of new energy units and increasing the standby of conventional units; when the predicted impact index at the next moment is lower than a preset threshold, increasing the standby of new energy units and increasing the standby of conventional units.

[0019] Preferably, the influence index of the backup characteristics of the new energy power system at the next moment on the power balance is determined by the following formula:

[0020]

[0021] in, It is the impact index of the reserve characteristics of the new energy power system at the next moment on the power balance.

[0022] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a control device, which includes: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement a method for predicting an index of influence of the standby characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance.

[0023] The present invention provides a method for predicting the index of influence of the standby characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance. The method obtains the measured values ​​of the parameters in the target system used to show the influence of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance according to the time sequence, and then determines the predicted value of the parameter at the next moment based on the measured values ​​of the obtained parameters and the influence factor of the influence of the preset current parameter value on the parameter value at the next moment, and then predicts the influence index of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system of the target system at the next moment on the power balance according to the determined predicted value of the parameter at the next moment. The present invention solves the defect of the lack of an effective method for predicting the influence of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance in the prior art through the above-mentioned prediction method, and realizes the beneficial effect of adjusting the power system units in the target system according to the prediction results to ensure the reliable power supply of the power system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0024] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the present invention or the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0025] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for predicting the impact of the standby characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0026] Figure 2 is a flow chart of a method for predicting the impact of the standby characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance provided by another embodiment of the present invention; DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0027] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the technical solution of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0028] As mentioned above, as the proportion of renewable energy power generation reserve capacity in the power system configuration power generation reserve capacity continues to increase, its own instability, volatility and other characteristics will affect the safety, reliability and quality of power grid operation, causing fluctuations in the power balance of the power grid. Therefore, in order to ensure the reliable power supply of the power system, it is necessary to predict the impact of the reserve characteristics of the renewable energy power system on the power balance at this stage.

[0029] To address this problem, the present invention provides a method for predicting the impact of the standby characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance. The prediction method first obtains, in chronological order, the measured values ​​of parameters in the target system used to show the impact of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on power balance. Then, based on the obtained measured values ​​of the parameters and the impact factor of the impact of the preset current parameter value on the parameter value at the next moment, the predicted value of the parameter at the next moment is determined. Then, based on the determined predicted value of the parameter at the next moment, the impact index of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system of the target system at the next moment on the power balance is predicted, thereby establishing an effective method for predicting the impact of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on power balance, which solves the defects existing in the current technology.

[0030] Combine the following Figure 1 and Figure 2 The present invention is described in detail.

[0031] Figure 1 FIG. 1 is a flow chart showing the influence of the backup characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1 As shown, the prediction method according to one embodiment of the present invention may be executed by a controller, and the prediction method may include the following steps:

[0032] Step 101: Acquire measured values ​​of parameters in a target system for indicating the impact of standby characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance according to a time sequence.

[0033] Step 102: Determine a predicted value of the parameter at the next moment based on the obtained measured value of the parameter and an influence factor of the preset current parameter value on the parameter value at the next moment.

[0034] Step 103: predict the impact index of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system of the target system at the next moment on the power balance according to the predicted value of the parameter determined at the next moment, wherein the impact index is used to indicate the impact of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system in the power system on the power balance.

[0035] Step 104: According to the predicted impact index at the next moment, the power system units in the target system are adjusted to ensure reliable power supply of the power system.

[0036] Based on the above steps, the method for predicting the impact of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance provided by the present invention obtains the measured values ​​of the parameters in the target system used to show the impact of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance according to the time sequence, and then determines the predicted value of the parameter at the next moment based on the measured value of the obtained parameter and the impact factor of the preset current parameter value on the parameter value at the next moment, and then predicts the impact index of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system of the target system at the next moment on the power balance according to the determined predicted value of the parameter at the next moment, so as to adjust the power system units in the target system according to the prediction results, thereby ensuring the reliable power supply of the power system.

[0037] In order to explain the technical solutions provided by the above embodiments in more detail, the present invention also provides preferred embodiments, such as Figure 2 As shown, Figure 2 It is a flow chart of a prediction method of the influence of the standby characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance provided by another embodiment of the present invention, and the prediction method can be executed by a controller. In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the way to adjust the units of the new energy power system includes but is not limited to adjusting the standby of the new energy standby units, the standby of conventional units such as thermal power, etc.

[0038] Before step 101, the prediction method may further include: step S1011, determining the influence index of the influence of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance according to the influence of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system in the target system on the power balance. In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, data analysis and / or expert experience may be performed on the influence index of the influence of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance, and the influence index is defined as:

[0039]

[0040] Where m is a natural number, m=1,2,L, i∈{1,2,L,m}, t1,t2,...,t i ,...,t m is m moments, Represents the tth i The total photovoltaic output power, wind power output power, thermal power output power, system total load, and system total output power in the new energy power system at the time, P g,max , P f,max , P h,max , P z,max , P x,max They represent the maximum values ​​of the total photovoltaic output power, total wind power output power, total thermal power output power, total system load, and total system output power in the new energy power system at m moments, respectively. x,min Represents the minimum value of the total output power of the renewable energy power system within m moments.

[0041] The prediction method may further include: step S1012, determining the parameters used to show the impact of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance according to a preset impact index. Based on this, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the parameters used to show the impact of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance include at least one of the following parameters: total photovoltaic output power, total wind power output power, total thermal power output power, total system load, and total system output power.

[0042] In step 101, according to the time sequence, the measured values ​​of the parameters obtained can be expressed by the following formula:

[0043]

[0044] in, Indicates the total photovoltaic output power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments are Indicates the total wind power output power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments are Indicates the total output power of thermal power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments are The total load of the system is at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments are Indicates the total output power of the system at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments.

[0045] With m=6 (i.e., Tm =T6) as an example, it is determined that the measured values ​​of the parameters used to show the influence of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance at the time of T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, and T6 need to be obtained, and they are sorted according to time, and the time series is obtained as follows:

[0046]

[0047] As an example, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the time interval during the measurement process can be set to 1h, and 6 measurement time periods, namely T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, and T6 time periods, are selected to measure the total photovoltaic output power in the time periods T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, and T6. Total wind power output Total thermal power output Total system load Total system output power

[0048] In step 102, through a large amount of data analysis, the influencing factor shown in the following formula can be determined:

[0049]

[0050] in, is the influence factor of the current parameter value on the parameter value at the next moment, P' g,min is the total photovoltaic output power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The minimum value of the measured values ​​at these m moments, is the total photovoltaic output power at t i The measured value at this moment, P' f,min is the total wind power output at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The minimum value of the measured values ​​at these m moments, is the total wind power output at t i The measured value at this moment, P' h,min is the total output power of thermal power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The minimum value of the measured values ​​at these m moments, is the total output power of thermal power at t i The measured value at this moment, P' z,min is the total system load at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The minimum value of the measured values ​​at these m moments, is the total system load at t i The measured value at this moment.

[0051] As an example, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the corresponding impact factor can be obtained according to the above T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6 time periods:

[0052] In step 103, the predicted value of the parameter at the next moment can be expressed by the following formula:

[0053]

[0054] in, is the predicted value of the total photovoltaic output power at the next moment, is the predicted value of the total wind power output at the next moment, is the predicted value of the total thermal power output at the next moment, is the predicted value of the total system load at the next moment, is the measured value of the total system output power at the next moment, They are t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The influencing factor of these m moments.

[0055] As an example, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, based on formula (5), the following parameter prediction values ​​can be obtained according to the above example values:

[0056]

[0057] in, They are the predicted values ​​of total photovoltaic output power, total wind power output power, total thermal power output power, total system load, and total system output power in the new energy power system at time t7.

[0058] Before step 103, the prediction method may further include: step S1031, normalizing the predicted value of the parameter at the next moment to obtain a normalized value after processing, and determining the influence index of the backup characteristics of the new energy power system at the next moment on the power balance according to the normalized value. Based on this, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the normalization process can be expressed by the following formula:

[0059]

[0060] in, are t iThe normalized value of the total photovoltaic output power, total wind power output power, total thermal power output power, total system load, and total system output power in the new energy power system at that moment (the meanings of the other parameters in the formula have been explained in detail in the previous article, so they will not be repeated here).

[0061] As an example, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, according to the above example values, since T m =T6, then T m+1 =T7, thus the predicted value of the parameter in the determined T7 time period is normalized, and the formula for obtaining the processed normalized value is as follows:

[0062]

[0063] in, They are the normalized values ​​of the total photovoltaic output power, total wind power output power, total thermal power output power, total system load, and total system output power in the power system at time T7.

[0064] Based on this, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the influence index of the determined new energy power system standby characteristics on the power balance at the next moment can be expressed by the following formula:

[0065]

[0066] in, It is the impact index of the reserve characteristics of the new energy power system at the next moment on the power balance.

[0067] As an example, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the influence index at time T7 is:

[0068]

[0069] After step 104, the prediction method may further include: step S1041, when the predicted impact index at the next moment is higher than a preset threshold, reducing the standby of new energy units and increasing the standby of conventional units; when the predicted impact index at the next moment is lower than the preset threshold, increasing the standby of new energy units and increasing the standby of conventional units.

[0070] By way of example, the preset threshold (e.g., 0.5) can be determined through data analysis and / or through expert experience. For example, when the predicted impact index at the next moment is higher than 0.5, the standby of new energy units is reduced and the standby of conventional units is increased; when the predicted impact index at the next moment is lower than 0.5, the standby of new energy units is increased and the standby of conventional units is increased.

[0071] According to the prediction method provided in this embodiment, at least one of the parameters such as the total photovoltaic output power, the total wind power output power, the total thermal power output power, the total system load, and the total system output power in the new energy power system is monitored and measured in real time, and the measured values ​​of the above parameters are sorted in time, and then the influence factor of the current parameter value on the parameter value at the next moment is determined, and then the predicted value of the parameter at the next moment is determined by the influence factor and the measured value of the current parameter. After the predicted value of the parameter at the next moment is normalized, the obtained normalized value is calculated to obtain the predicted value of the influence index of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance at the next moment, and by comparing the influence index at the next moment with the preset threshold, an effective method for predicting the influence of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance is established, and it is realized that the standby of new energy units, thermal power and other conventional units can be adjusted according to the influence index to ensure the balance of the power system.

[0072] Based on the same general inventive concept, the present invention also protects a control device, which includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, and the processor executes the computer program to implement a method for predicting the impact of the standby characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance in any of the above-mentioned embodiments.

[0073] It should be understood that in various embodiments of the present invention, the size of the serial numbers of the above-mentioned processes does not mean the order of execution. The execution order of each process should be determined by its function and internal logic, and should not constitute any limitation on the implementation process of the embodiments of the present invention.

[0074] In addition, the terms "system" and "network" are often used interchangeably in this article. The term "and / or" in this article is only a description of the association relationship of the associated objects, indicating that there can be three relationships. For example, A and / or B can mean: A exists alone, A and B exist at the same time, and B exists alone. In addition, the character " / " in this article generally indicates that the associated objects before and after are in an "or" relationship.

[0075] It should be understood that in the embodiment of the present invention, "B corresponding to A" means that B is associated with A, and B can be determined according to A. However, it should also be understood that determining B according to A does not mean determining B only according to A, and B can also be determined according to A and / or other information.

[0076] Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the units and algorithm steps of each example described in conjunction with the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented in electronic hardware, computer software, or a combination of the two. In order to clearly illustrate the interchangeability of hardware and software, the composition and steps of each example have been generally described in terms of function in the above description. Whether these functions are performed in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Professional and technical personnel can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered to be beyond the scope of the present invention.

[0077] Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that, for the convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the systems, devices and units described above can refer to the corresponding processes in the aforementioned method embodiments and will not be repeated here.

[0078] In the several embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed systems, devices and methods can be implemented in other ways. For example, the device embodiments described above are only schematic. For example, the division of the units is only a logical function division. There may be other division methods in actual implementation, such as multiple units or components can be combined or integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored or not executed. In addition, the mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed can be an indirect coupling or communication connection through some interfaces, devices or units, or it can be an electrical, mechanical or other form of connection.

[0079] The units described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components shown as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place or distributed on multiple network units. Some or all of the units may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the embodiments of the present invention.

[0080] In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present invention may be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit may exist physically separately, or two or more units may be integrated into one unit. The above-mentioned integrated unit may be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of software functional units.

[0081] Through the description of the above embodiments, it is clear to those skilled in the art that the present invention can be implemented in hardware, firmware, or a combination thereof. When software is used for implementation, the above functions can be stored in a computer-readable medium or transmitted as one or more instructions or codes on a computer-readable medium. Computer-readable media include computer storage media and communication media, wherein the communication media include any medium that facilitates the transmission of a computer program from one place to another. The storage medium can be any available medium that a computer can access. Taking this as an example but not limited to: a computer-readable medium can include RAM, ROM, EEPROM, CD-ROM or other optical disk storage, disk storage medium or other magnetic storage device, or any other medium that can be used to carry or store a desired program code in the form of an instruction or data structure and can be accessed by a computer. In addition. Any connection can be appropriately a computer-readable medium. For example, if the software is transmitted from a website, a server or other remote source using a coaxial cable, an optical fiber cable, a twisted pair, a digital subscriber line (DSL), or wireless technologies such as infrared, radio, and microwaves, then the coaxial cable, optical fiber cable, twisted pair, DSL, or wireless technologies such as infrared, wireless, and microwaves are included in the fixing of the medium. As used in the present invention, disk and disc include compact disc (CD), laser disc, optical disc, digital versatile disc (DVD), floppy disk and blue-ray disc, wherein disk usually reproduces data magnetically, while disc uses laser to reproduce data optically. The above combination should also be included in the scope of protection of computer-readable media.

[0082] In short, the above is only a preferred embodiment of the technical solution of the present invention, and is not intended to limit the protection scope of the present invention. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the impact of the reserve characteristics of a new energy power system on power balance, characterized in that: The prediction method comprises: Acquire, in chronological order, measured values ​​of parameters in the target system for indicating the influence of the reserve characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance; Determine the predicted value of the parameter at the next moment based on the obtained measured value of the parameter and the influence factor of the preset current parameter value on the value of the parameter at the next moment; According to the predicted value of the parameter at the next moment, the influence index of the backup characteristics of the new energy power system of the target system at the next moment on the power balance is predicted. Wherein, the impact index is used to indicate the impact of the reserve characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance in the power system; According to the predicted impact index at the next moment, the power system units in the target system are adjusted to ensure the reliable power supply of the power system.

2. The prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Before obtaining the measured values ​​of the parameters of the target system in which the reserve characteristics of the new energy power system affect the power balance according to the time sequence, the prediction method further includes: According to the influence of the reserve characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance in the target system, determine the influence index of the reserve characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance; According to the determined impact index, the parameter for showing the impact of the standby characteristic of the new energy power system on the power balance is determined.

3. The prediction method according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that: The parameters used to show the impact of the standby characteristics of the new energy power system on power balance include at least one of the following parameters: total photovoltaic output power, total wind power output power, total thermal power output power, total system load, and total system output power.

4. The prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The following formula expresses the measured values ​​of the parameters obtained in chronological order: in, Indicates the total photovoltaic output power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments are Indicates the total wind power output power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments are Indicates the total output power of thermal power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments are The total load of the system is at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments are Indicates the total output power of the system at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The measured values ​​at these m moments.

5. The prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The impact factor is expressed by the following formula: in, is the influence factor of the current parameter value on the parameter value at the next moment, P' g,min is the total photovoltaic output power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The minimum value of the measured values ​​at these m moments, is the total photovoltaic output power at t i The measured value at this moment, P' f,min is the total wind power output at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The minimum value of the measured values ​​at these m moments, is the total wind power output at t i The measured value at this moment, P' h,min is the total output power of thermal power at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The minimum value of the measured values ​​at these m moments, is the total output power of thermal power at t i The measured value at this moment, P' z,min is the total system load at t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The minimum value of the measured values ​​at these m moments, is the total system load at t i The measured value at this moment.

6. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that The predicted value of the parameter at the next moment is determined by the following formula: in, is the predicted value of the total photovoltaic output power at the next moment, is the predicted value of the total wind power output at the next moment, is the predicted value of the total thermal power output at the next moment, is the predicted value of the total system load at the next moment, is the measured value of the total system output power at the next moment, They are t1, t2, ..., t i ,...,t m The influencing factor of these m moments.

7. The prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: After determining the predicted value of the parameter of the new energy power system standby characteristic affecting the power balance at the next moment, the prediction method further includes: Normalizing the predicted value of the parameter at the next moment to obtain a processed normalized value; The influence index of the backup characteristics of the new energy power system at the next moment on the power balance is determined according to the normalized value.

8. The prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of adjusting the power system units in the target system according to the predicted impact index at the next moment includes: When the predicted impact index at the next moment is higher than the preset threshold, the reserve of new energy units is reduced and the reserve of conventional units is increased; When the predicted impact index at the next moment is lower than the preset threshold, the reserve of new energy units is increased and the reserve of conventional units is increased.

9. The method according to claim 7, characterized in that: The influence index of the reserve characteristics of the new energy power system on the power balance at the next moment is determined by the following formula: in, It is the impact index of the reserve characteristics of the new energy power system at the next moment on the power balance.

10. A control device, characterized in that: The control device includes: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, and the processor executes the computer program to implement the prediction method according to any one of claims 1-9.

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