Reliability evaluation method and device for electric heating integrated energy system and terminal equipment

Abstract

The invention discloses a reliability evaluation method and device for an electric heating integrated energy system and terminal equipment, which not only can apply an energy supply structure model and an element operation model, but also introduces coupling element data for representing fault repair characteristics of a coupling element. Therefore, when the running states of the electric heating integrated energy system in different time periods are simulated, the load point running state of the electric heating integrated energy system and the load point running state of the electric heating integrated energy system can be simulated, and the fault process of the system can be accurately simulated through the fault characteristics of the coupling element. The mutual influence and dependency relationship between different energy systems are considered, and the influence of the coupling element on the system reliability is accurately evaluated; and by continuously simulating the running states of the system in different time periods and sampling the states, the overall fault state change of the system can be accurately captured, so that the accuracy of reliability evaluation is improved, potential risks in the system can be found in time, and the stability of the system is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of reliability assessment of energy systems, and in particular to a reliability assessment method, device and terminal equipment for an electric-thermal integrated energy system. Background Art

[0002] In practical applications, the electric-thermal integrated energy system can include the conversion and storage of multiple energy forms, such as using gas turbines or gas internal combustion engines to burn natural gas to generate electricity, while recovering the waste heat after work for cooling, heating and preparing domestic hot water, thereby achieving a step-by-step utilization of energy and improving the comprehensive utilization efficiency of energy. In the electric-thermal integrated energy system, there are often complex interactions and mutual influences between coupling elements. For example, a cogeneration unit generates heat energy while generating electricity, and its failure not only affects the power supply, but may also affect the heat supply. Therefore, the electric-thermal integrated energy system needs to use the energy coupling technology of coupling elements to achieve the comprehensive coordinated operation and control of various energy systems such as electricity and heat, and their operating status directly affects the stability and reliability of the entire system.

[0003] In the traditional reliability assessment process, it mainly relies on the collection and statistics of the operating data of each component in the system, and then uses the corresponding mathematical models (such as series model, parallel model, hybrid model, etc.) to evaluate the fault characteristics of the load point in the operation of each mathematical model, so as to obtain the reliability of the entire system. The traditional reliability assessment method cannot simulate the operating status of the system in different time periods, and the failure characteristics of the coupling components in different time periods of the system are ignored in the simulation of the operating status of the system through the mathematical model, and the overall dynamic changes of the system cannot be accurately captured, resulting in the failure characteristic evaluation results of the load point cannot accurately reflect the reliability level of the system in actual operation, and thus cannot accurately reflect the reliability level of the system in actual operation, which will lead to the inability to timely discover potential risks in the system, resulting in low system stability. Summary of the invention

[0004] The embodiments of the present invention provide a reliability assessment method, apparatus and terminal equipment for an electric-thermal integrated energy system, which can not only simulate the load point operating state and load point operating state of the electric-thermal integrated energy system in each simulation of the system operating state, but also accurately simulate the system failure process through the failure characteristics of the coupling element, thereby improving the accuracy of the reliability assessment, and can effectively solve the problem of inaccurate reliability assessment in the prior art due to the inability to simulate the system operating state in different time periods and the neglect of the failure characteristics of the coupling element in the system in different time periods.

[0005] An embodiment of the present invention provides a reliability assessment method for an electric-thermal integrated energy system, comprising:

[0006] Acquire an energy supply structure model, an element operation model and coupling element data; wherein the energy supply structure model is used to characterize the network structure characteristics and load point operation characteristics of the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the element operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the elements in the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the coupling element data is used to characterize the fault repair characteristics of the coupling element; the coupling element is a component used to realize energy conversion;

[0007] Repeat the load point fault analysis operation until the current time period is the same as the preset time period, and output the fault status data of each load point when the load point fault analysis operation is performed each time;

[0008] Generate a reliability evaluation result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system according to each fault status data, the number of load points and the number of users at each load point; wherein the reliability evaluation result includes: system energy supply interruption frequency, system energy supply interruption time, system energy availability and system energy shortage;

[0009] The load point fault analysis operation includes:

[0010] When it is determined that the current time period is less than the preset time period, the operation state of the electric-thermal integrated energy system in the current time period is simulated according to the current time period, the energy supply structure model, the component operation model and the coupling component data, the state of each component is sampled and a state transition timing diagram of each component is generated;

[0011] According to the operation data corresponding to the state transition in each state transition timing diagram and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the state transition of the electric-thermal integrated energy system, the fault state data corresponding to each load point at the time of state transition is generated; wherein the fault state data includes: the number of power outages, the power outage time, the fault repair time and the lost energy;

[0012] The current time period is added with the preset period increment to obtain an updated time period, and the updated time period is used as the current time period when the load point fault analysis operation is performed next time.

[0013] Preferably, the state transition timing diagram includes: each moment corresponds to a component state; the component state includes a normal operating state or a fault state;

[0014] The method generates the fault state data corresponding to each load point at the time of state transfer according to the operation data corresponding to the state transfer in each state transfer timing diagram and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the state transfer of the electric-thermal integrated energy system, including:

[0015] According to the state transition timing diagram corresponding to each component, the fault moments corresponding to several fault states are determined;

[0016] The element corresponding to each fault moment is marked as a fault element. For each fault element, the fault state data corresponding to each load point at the time of state transfer is generated based on the operating data corresponding to the electric and thermal integrated energy system when the fault element is transferred from the fault state to the normal operating state, and the flow calculation results corresponding to the operating data.

[0017] Preferably, the component operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the grid components, power supply components and coupling components in the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the reliability evaluation result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system is the reliability evaluation result of the grid;

[0018] The generating of the fault state data corresponding to each load point when the state is transferred according to the operation data corresponding to the electric-thermal integrated energy system when the faulty component is transferred from the faulty state to the normal operation state, and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the operation data, comprises:

[0019] Acquire operation data corresponding to the electric-thermal integrated energy system when the faulty component is transferred from a faulty state to a normal operating state;

[0020] When it is determined that the faulty element is a power element or a coupling element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to a preset power grid load reduction model to generate a power flow calculation result; when it is determined that the faulty element is a power grid element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to a preset power flow calculation model to generate a power flow calculation result; wherein the power flow calculation model is a power flow calculation model constructed by the operating characteristics of all elements in the electric and thermal integrated energy system;

[0021] For each load point, the fault state data corresponding to the load point when the state is transferred is generated according to the power flow calculation result and the first fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element; wherein the first fault reliability data includes: the name of the feeder where the load point and the faulty element are located, the electrical path between the load point and the faulty element, the fault type of the faulty element, the fault type of the load point, the probability of the fault occurring at the load point and the fault recovery time of the load point.

[0022] Preferably, the component operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the heat network element, the heat source element and the coupling element in the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the reliability evaluation result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system is the reliability evaluation result of the heat network;

[0023] The generating of the fault state data corresponding to each load point when the state is transferred according to the operation data corresponding to the electric-thermal integrated energy system when the faulty component is transferred from the faulty state to the normal operation state, and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the operation data, comprises:

[0024] When it is determined that the faulty element is a power element or a coupling element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to a preset heat network load reduction model to generate a power flow calculation result; when it is determined that the faulty element is a power grid element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to the power flow calculation model to generate a power flow calculation result;

[0025] Acquire the load state of each load point during the process of the faulty component transferring from the faulty state to the normal operating state; wherein the load state includes a normal state or a faulty state;

[0026] For each load point, when it is determined that the load state is normal, the fault state data corresponding to the load point when the state is transferred is generated according to the power flow calculation result and the second fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element; wherein the second fault reliability data includes: the name of the valve between the load point and the faulty element, the pipeline path between the load point and the faulty element, the fault type of the faulty element, the fault type of the load point, the fault probability of the load point and the fault recovery time of the load point;

[0027] When the load state is determined to be a fault state, the second fault reliability data between the load point and the fault element is obtained; the fault recovery time of the load point in the second fault reliability data is updated according to the length of the pipeline path from the load point to the fault element, the water flow velocity corresponding to the pipeline path, the pipeline temperature data and the temperature data of the load point; the fault occurrence probability of the load point in the second fault reliability data is updated according to the pipeline path from the load point to the fault element; the second fault reliability data is updated according to the updated fault recovery time of the load point and the updated fault occurrence probability of the load point, and the updated second fault reliability data is generated; the fault state data corresponding to the load point at the time of state transfer is generated according to the power flow calculation result and the updated second fault reliability data.

[0028] Preferably, the component operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the grid components, power supply components, heat network components, heat source components and coupling components in the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the reliability evaluation result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system is the reliability evaluation result of the electric-thermal coupling;

[0029] The generating of the fault state data corresponding to each load point when the state is transferred according to the operation data corresponding to the electric-thermal integrated energy system when the faulty component is transferred from the faulty state to the normal operation state, and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the operation data, comprises:

[0030] Acquire operation data corresponding to the electric-thermal integrated energy system when the faulty component is transferred from a faulty state to a normal operating state;

[0031] When it is determined that the faulty element is a power supply element, a heat source element or a coupling element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to a preset electric-thermal coupling load reduction model to generate a power flow calculation result; when it is determined that the faulty element is a power grid element or a heat network element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to the power flow calculation model to generate a power flow calculation result;

[0032] For each load point, when determining whether the faulty element is a heat network element, a heat source element or a coupling element, when determining whether the load state is a normal state, if so, then based on the flow calculation result and the second fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element, generate the fault state data corresponding to the load point when the state is transferred; if not, obtain the second fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element; update the fault recovery time of the load point in the second fault reliability data according to the length of the pipeline path from the load point to the faulty element, the water flow velocity corresponding to the pipeline path, the pipeline temperature data and the temperature data of the load point; update the fault occurrence probability of the load point in the second fault reliability data according to the pipeline path from the load point to the faulty element; update the second fault reliability data according to the updated fault recovery time of the load point and the updated fault occurrence probability of the load point, and generate the updated second fault reliability data; generate the fault state data corresponding to the load point when the state is transferred according to the flow calculation result and the updated second fault reliability data;

[0033] When it is determined that the faulty element is a power supply element or a grid element, fault state data corresponding to the load point during state transfer is generated according to the power flow calculation result and the first fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element.

[0034] Preferably, the pipeline temperature data includes: the lowest heating temperature of the pipeline; the load point temperature data includes: the lowest drop temperature of the load point;

[0035] The updating of the fault recovery time of the load point in the second fault reliability data according to the length of the pipeline path from the load point to the fault element, the water flow velocity corresponding to the pipeline path, the pipeline temperature data and the temperature data of the load point includes:

[0036] generating a heat energy transfer efficiency according to a ratio between a length of a pipeline path from a load point to a faulty element and a water flow velocity corresponding to the pipeline path;

[0037] The fault recovery time is generated according to the heat energy transmission efficiency, the minimum heating temperature of the pipeline and the minimum drop temperature of the load point.

[0038] Preferably, the updating of the failure occurrence probability of the load point in the second fault reliability data according to the pipeline path from the load point to the faulty element comprises:

[0039] Obtaining a target length of a pipeline path from the load point to a faulty element;

[0040] Compare the target length with a preset probability comparison table to determine the probability of a fault occurring corresponding to the target length;

[0041] Wherein, the preset probability comparison table includes: a plurality of preset lengths; each preset length corresponds to a probability of a fault occurrence.

[0042] Preferably, the construction of the electrothermal coupling load reduction model includes:

[0043] The electric-thermal coupled load reduction model with the goal of minimizing the total cost of load reduction is constructed according to the following formula:

[0044]

[0045] Among them, F is the total cost corresponding to load reduction, C i is the penalty cost for reducing unit power at load point i, G k is the penalty cost for reducing unit thermal power at load point k, v i is the electric load weight coefficient of load point i, u k is the heat load weight coefficient of load point k, ΔP i is the electric power cut at load point i, ΔΦ k is the thermal power cut at load point k, N and M are the load point sets of the power grid and the heat network respectively;

[0046] The multi-energy flow balance constraints of the electric-thermal coupled load reduction model are constructed according to the following formula:

[0047]

[0048] Among them, P source and Φ source are the energy supply power of the power supply and the energy supply power of the heat source under normal conditions, P cutoff and Φ cutoff The power supply missing due to power outage and the energy supply missing due to heat source outage are respectively

[0049] Power, P i is the electrical load at the load point, ΔP i is the electric power cut at the load point, P loss kk is the fault state

[0050] Network electrical power loss, Φk is the heat load at the load point, ΔΦ k is the thermal power cut at the load point, Φ loss is the network thermal power loss under fault conditions;

[0051] The curtailable electric power constraint of the electric-thermal coupled load curtailment model is constructed according to the following formula:

[0052] 0≤ΔP i ≤P i s ;

[0053] The curtailable thermal power constraint of the electric-thermal coupled load curtailment model is constructed according to the following formula:

[0054] 0≤ΔΦ k ≤Φ k s ;

[0055] The power output constraint of the electric-thermal coupled load reduction model is constructed according to the following formula:

[0056]

[0057] The heat source output constraint of the electric-thermal coupling load reduction model is constructed according to the following formula:

[0058]

[0059] Among them, P i s is the maximum value of the electric power that can be reduced, Φ k s To reduce the maximum thermal power, are the lower limit and upper limit of power output under normal conditions, respectively. They are respectively the lower limit and upper limit of the heat source output under normal conditions.

[0060] Based on the above method embodiments, the present invention provides corresponding device embodiments.

[0061] An embodiment of the present invention provides a reliability assessment device for an electric-thermal integrated energy system, comprising: a data acquisition module, a load point fault analysis module, and a reliability assessment module;

[0062] The data acquisition module is used to acquire the energy supply structure model, the component operation model and the coupling element data; wherein the energy supply structure model is used to characterize the network structure characteristics and the load point operation characteristics of the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the component operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the components in the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the coupling element data is used to characterize the fault repair characteristics of the coupling element; the coupling element is a component used to realize energy conversion;

[0063] The load point fault analysis module is used to repeatedly perform the load point fault analysis operation until the current time period is the same as the preset time period, and output the fault status data of each load point when the load point fault analysis operation is performed each time;

[0064] The reliability evaluation module is used to generate a reliability evaluation result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system according to each fault state data, the number of load points and the number of users at each load point; wherein the reliability evaluation result includes: system energy supply interruption frequency, system energy supply interruption time, system energy availability and system energy shortage;

[0065] The load point fault analysis operation includes:

[0066] When it is determined that the current time period is less than the preset time period, the operation state of the electric-thermal integrated energy system in the current time period is simulated according to the current time period, the energy supply structure model, the component operation model and the coupling component data, the state of each component is sampled and a state transition timing diagram of each component is generated;

[0067] According to the operation data corresponding to the state transition in each state transition timing diagram and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the state transition of the electric-thermal integrated energy system, the fault state data corresponding to each load point at the time of state transition is generated; wherein the fault state data includes: the number of power outages, the power outage time, the fault repair time and the lost energy;

[0068] The current time period is added with the preset period increment to obtain an updated time period, and the updated time period is used as the current time period when the load point fault analysis operation is performed next time.

[0069] Based on the above method embodiments, the present invention provides corresponding terminal device embodiments.

[0070] Another embodiment of the present invention provides a terminal device, including a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, and when the processor executes the computer program, it implements the reliability assessment method of an electric-thermal integrated energy system described in the above-mentioned embodiment of the invention.

[0071] The following beneficial effects are achieved by implementing the present invention:

[0072] The embodiment of the present invention provides a reliability assessment method, device and terminal equipment of an electric-thermal integrated energy system. The present invention can obtain an energy supply structure model for characterizing the network structure characteristics and load point operation characteristics of the electric-thermal integrated energy system and an element operation model for characterizing the operation characteristics of elements in the electric-thermal integrated energy system, and also introduces coupling element data for characterizing the fault repair characteristics of coupling elements, so that when simulating the operation status of the electric-thermal integrated energy system in different time periods, not only the load point operation status and load point operation status of the electric-thermal integrated energy system can be simulated, but also the failure process of the system can be accurately simulated through the fault characteristics of the coupling element, so that the mutual influence and dependency between different energy systems are considered to accurately assess the influence of the coupling element on the system reliability, and solve the problem that the traditional method ignores the mutual influence of the coupling element. And by repeatedly executing the load point fault analysis operation to continuously simulate the operation status of the system in different time periods, and considering the fault characteristics of the coupling element in the system in different time periods in each simulation of the operation status of the system, the overall fault state change of the system can be accurately captured, so that the reliability level of the system in actual operation can be accurately reflected according to the fault state data of each load point outputted by each simulation. Compared with the prior art, the present invention can simulate the operating status and failure process of the system more accurately, thereby improving the accuracy of reliability evaluation, being able to timely discover potential risks in the system, and improving the stability of the system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0073] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a reliability assessment method for an electric-thermal integrated energy system provided in one embodiment of the present invention.

[0074] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of a reliability assessment process of an electric-thermal integrated energy system provided by another embodiment of the present invention.

[0075] Figure 3 It is a structural schematic diagram of a reliability assessment device for an electric-thermal integrated energy system provided by one embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0076] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0077] like Figure 1FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a reliability assessment method for an electric-thermal integrated energy system provided by an embodiment of the present invention. The reliability assessment method for the electric-thermal integrated energy system comprises:

[0078] Step S1: Acquire an energy supply structure model, an element operation model and coupling element data; wherein the energy supply structure model is used to characterize the network structure characteristics and load point operation characteristics of the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the element operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the elements in the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the coupling element data is used to characterize the fault repair characteristics of the coupling element; the coupling element is a element used to realize energy conversion;

[0079] Step S2: Repeat the load point fault analysis operation until the current time period is the same as the preset time period, and output the fault status data of each load point when the load point fault analysis operation is performed each time;

[0080] The load point fault analysis operation includes:

[0081] When it is determined that the current time period is less than the preset time period, the operation state of the electric-thermal integrated energy system in the current time period is simulated according to the current time period, the energy supply structure model, the component operation model and the coupling component data, the state of each component is sampled and a state transition timing diagram of each component is generated;

[0082] According to the operation data corresponding to the state transition in each state transition timing diagram and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the state transition of the electric-thermal integrated energy system, the fault state data corresponding to each load point at the time of state transition is generated; wherein the fault state data includes: the number of power outages, the power outage time, the fault repair time and the lost energy;

[0083] The current time period is added with the preset period increment to obtain an updated time period, and the updated time period is used as the current time period when the load point fault analysis operation is performed next time.

[0084] Step S3: Generate a reliability assessment result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system based on each fault status data, the number of load points and the number of users at each load point; wherein the reliability assessment result includes: system power supply interruption frequency, system power supply interruption time, system energy availability and system power shortage energy.

[0085] For step S1, in a preferred embodiment, the present invention can obtain network parameters of the integrated energy system, such as distribution network load point data, feeder data, component failure rate and repair time data, and heat network load point data, branch pipeline data, and valve data, and obtain environmental parameters, such as heating standard temperature, building indoor temperature, external ambient temperature, water density, specific heat capacity, and heat loss coefficient, etc., so as to construct an energy supply structure model based on the above-mentioned network structure characteristic data and load point operation characteristic data, as well as environmental parameters;

[0086] Furthermore, the component operation model is used to characterize the operating characteristics of components (such as generators, transformers, heat exchangers, etc.) in the electric and thermal integrated energy system. It takes into account the input, output, efficiency, failure rate and other parameters of the components, as well as how these parameters change over time.

[0087] In a preferred embodiment, coupling elements refer to those elements that affect both the power and thermal energy systems, such as cogeneration units, and the coupling element data is used to characterize the fault repair characteristics of the coupling elements, including the probability of fault occurrence, fault duration, and repair time, etc. Moreover, through the coupling element data, the location, output upper and lower limits, failure rate, and repair time of the coupling elements such as cogeneration units, electric boilers, and heat pumps can also be determined.

[0088] Therefore, through the constructed energy supply structure model, the interaction and dependency of each part of the system can be clearly seen, providing a basic framework for the system state analysis; the component operation model can accurately predict and simulate the operating state of the system components under various conditions, and the introduced coupling component data can allow the mutual influence and dependency between different energy systems to be considered during the system simulation process, thereby significantly improving the accuracy of the simulation. Then, by constructing the energy supply structure model, the component operation model and introducing the coupling component data, the present invention can more accurately simulate the operating state and failure process of the system, providing a strong basic support for the reliability assessment of the system.

[0089] For step S2, in a preferred embodiment, the present invention can repeatedly perform the following load point fault analysis operation until the current time period is the same as the preset time period, and output the fault status data of each load point when the load point fault analysis operation is performed each time:

[0090] When it is determined that the current time period is less than the preset time period, the operation state of the electric-thermal integrated energy system in the current time period is simulated according to the current time period, the energy supply structure model, the component operation model and the coupling component data, the state of each component is sampled and a state transition timing diagram of each component is generated;

[0091] According to the operation data corresponding to the state transition in each state transition timing diagram and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the state transition of the electric-thermal integrated energy system, the fault state data corresponding to each load point at the time of state transition is generated; wherein the fault state data includes: the number of power outages, the power outage time, the fault repair time and the lost energy;

[0092] The current time period is added with the preset period increment to obtain an updated time period, and the updated time period is used as the current time period when the load point fault analysis operation is performed next time.

[0093] Schematically, the state transition timing diagram includes: each moment corresponds to a component state; the component state includes a normal operating state or a fault state;

[0094] When generating the fault status data corresponding to each load point during state transfer, it can be specifically as follows:

[0095] According to the state transition timing diagram corresponding to each component, the fault moments corresponding to several fault states are determined;

[0096] The element corresponding to each fault moment is marked as a fault element. For each fault element, the fault state data corresponding to each load point at the time of state transfer is generated based on the operating data corresponding to the electric and thermal integrated energy system when the fault element is transferred from the fault state to the normal operating state, and the flow calculation results corresponding to the operating data.

[0097] Illustratively, the embodiment of the present invention can simulate the state transition of the faulty component during the fault and recovery process by using the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method. At the initial stage, the initial states of all components in the system can be set, for example, the initial states of all components are normal operating states; the simulation time range (i.e., the preset time period) and the increment of each time period are set;

[0098] Based on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, random state sampling can be performed on each component according to the current time period, energy supply structure model, component operation model and coupling component data, and the duration of the component in the current state is taken into account. This duration can be simulated based on the state transition probability and state duration distribution of the component.

[0099] Based on the sampling results, the state of the component can be updated and a state transition timing diagram of each component can be generated; the schematic timing diagram shows the state of the component at each time point (normal operation or failure).

[0100] In each time period, when a component fails, the fault time is recorded and the component is marked as a faulty component. Therefore, for each faulty component, the operating data and flow calculation results of the electric-thermal integrated energy system in the process of transferring from the faulty state to the normal operating state can be analyzed, and based on the operating data and flow calculation results, the fault state analysis and calculation of all load points can be performed, that is, the fault state data corresponding to each load point when the state is transferred can be generated.

[0101] The present invention can accurately evaluate the system failure frequency and system state duration based on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, so as to more accurately simulate the state transition of the faulty component during the failure and recovery process. And by considering the state transition probability and state duration distribution of the component, the simulation results are closer to the actual system operation.

[0102] In a preferred embodiment, the present invention adopts a system energy supply interruption frequency index, a system energy supply interruption time index, a system energy availability index and a system energy shortage index for the reliability assessment result of the thermal integrated energy system. In order to reflect the overall reliability of the distribution network and the possible consequences of being affected, the present invention can obtain the reliability assessment result of the electric and thermal integrated energy system by accumulating the fault status data of each load point each time a load point fault analysis operation is performed.

[0103] When evaluating the reliability of the electric-thermal integrated energy system, the present invention can not only evaluate the reliability of the power grid in the electric-thermal integrated energy system, but also evaluate the reliability of the heat network in the electric-thermal integrated energy system, and can also evaluate the reliability based on the operating status of the electric-thermal integrated energy system after the power grid and the heat network are coupled.

[0104] Specifically, in a preferred embodiment, the present invention can evaluate the reliability of the power grid and obtain the reliability evaluation result of the power grid, which can be specifically:

[0105] When the component operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the grid components, power supply components and coupling components in the electric-thermal integrated energy system, and the reliability assessment result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system is the reliability assessment result of the power grid, then:

[0106] First, in the process of repeatedly performing the load point fault analysis operation, the operation data corresponding to the electric-thermal integrated energy system when the faulty component is transferred from the faulty state to the normal operation state is obtained;

[0107] When it is determined that the faulty element is a power element or a coupling element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to a preset power grid load reduction model to generate a power flow calculation result; when it is determined that the faulty element is a power grid element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to a preset power flow calculation model to generate a power flow calculation result; wherein the power flow calculation model is a power flow calculation model constructed by the operating characteristics of all elements in the electric and thermal integrated energy system;

[0108] For each load point, the fault state data corresponding to the load point when the state is transferred is generated according to the power flow calculation result and the first fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element; wherein the first fault reliability data includes: the name of the feeder where the load point and the faulty element are located, the electrical path between the load point and the faulty element, the fault type of the faulty element, the fault type of the load point, the probability of the fault occurring at the load point and the fault recovery time of the load point.

[0109] Indicatively, the present invention can determine whether to perform load reduction based on the type of faulty component corresponding to the current fault moment. It is understandable that in the electric-thermal integrated energy system, different types of faulty components have different effects on the system. Failure of power supply components (such as generators) or coupling components (such as cogeneration units) may cause a decrease in the power supply or heating capacity of the system, thereby requiring load reduction to maintain the stable operation of the system. Failure of power grid components (such as transmission lines and transformers) may directly affect the transmission and distribution of electric energy, but may not necessarily lead to load reduction immediately (unless the failure causes local power grid decoupling or large-scale power outages).

[0110] Therefore, choosing whether to perform load shedding according to the type of faulty component can more accurately simulate the impact of the fault on the system and avoid simulation errors caused by unnecessary load shedding.

[0111] In a preferred embodiment, the present invention can evaluate the reliability of the heating network and obtain the reliability evaluation result of the heating network, which can be specifically:

[0112] When the component operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the heat network components, heat source components and coupling components in the electric-thermal integrated energy system, and the reliability evaluation result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system is the reliability evaluation result of the heat network, the process of generating the fault state data corresponding to the load point during the state transfer may be:

[0113] When it is determined that the faulty element is a power element or a coupling element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to a preset heat network load reduction model to generate a power flow calculation result; when it is determined that the faulty element is a power grid element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to the power flow calculation model to generate a power flow calculation result;

[0114] Acquire the load state of each load point during the process of the faulty component transferring from the faulty state to the normal operating state; wherein the load state includes a normal state or a faulty state;

[0115] For each load point, when it is determined that the load state is normal, the fault state data corresponding to the load point when the state is transferred is generated according to the power flow calculation result and the second fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element; wherein the second fault reliability data includes: the name of the valve between the load point and the faulty element, the pipeline path between the load point and the faulty element, the fault type of the faulty element, the fault type of the load point, the fault probability of the load point and the fault recovery time of the load point;

[0116] When the load state is determined to be a fault state, the second fault reliability data between the load point and the fault element is obtained; the fault recovery time of the load point in the second fault reliability data is updated according to the length of the pipeline path from the load point to the fault element, the water flow velocity corresponding to the pipeline path, the pipeline temperature data and the temperature data of the load point; the fault occurrence probability of the load point in the second fault reliability data is updated according to the pipeline path from the load point to the fault element; the second fault reliability data is updated according to the updated fault recovery time of the load point and the updated fault occurrence probability of the load point, and the updated second fault reliability data is generated; the fault state data corresponding to the load point at the time of state transfer is generated according to the power flow calculation result and the updated second fault reliability data.

[0117] Schematically, the pipeline temperature data includes: the lowest heating temperature of the pipeline; the load point temperature data specifically includes: the lowest drop temperature of the load point;

[0118] Then, the fault recovery time of the load point in the second fault reliability data is updated according to the length of the pipeline path from the load point to the fault element, the water flow velocity corresponding to the pipeline path, the pipeline temperature data and the temperature data of the load point, including:

[0119] generating a heat energy transfer efficiency according to a ratio between a length of a pipeline path from a load point to a faulty element and a water flow velocity corresponding to the pipeline path;

[0120] The fault recovery time is generated according to the heat energy transmission efficiency, the minimum heating temperature of the pipeline and the minimum drop temperature of the load point.

[0121] Illustratively, the updating of the failure probability of the load point in the second fault reliability data according to the pipeline path from the load point to the faulty element specifically includes:

[0122] Obtaining a target length of a pipeline path from the load point to a faulty element;

[0123] Compare the target length with a preset probability comparison table to determine the probability of a fault occurring corresponding to the target length;

[0124] Wherein, the preset probability comparison table includes: a plurality of preset lengths; each preset length corresponds to a probability of a fault occurrence.

[0125] Therefore, unlike the reliability assessment of the power grid, when evaluating the reliability of the heat network, the embodiment of the present invention can distinguish the load state of each load point, and obtain different fault state data of the load point based on different load states. It is understandable that after a fault occurs, the thermal inertia of the heat load itself needs to be considered, and the thermal inertia of the load point means that when the energy supply to the load point is interrupted, the heating temperature of the load point will not decrease immediately, but will gradually decay from the initial temperature; when the energy supply to the load point is restored, the heating temperature of the load point will not increase immediately, but will gradually rise from the initial temperature until it returns to normal temperature. Therefore, thermal inertia causes the load point to have a lag in feedback on the energy supply interruption, so it has a certain impact on the reliability evaluation index.

[0126] After a fault occurs, the delay of the heat load itself must also be considered. The delay of the heat load mainly refers to the time delay in the process from the production of heat from the heat source to the final delivery to the user end in the electric and thermal integrated energy system, especially in the centralized heating system. Compared with the instant transmission of electricity, the transmission of thermal energy has an obvious lag, and the heat will be affected by many factors during the transmission process, such as the pipe material, length, and thermal insulation performance, resulting in a relatively slow transmission speed.

[0127] Therefore, when sampling and counting the fault status of components and calculating the reliability assessment results of the heat network, the influence of thermal inertia and time delay must be fully considered. When the load state is determined to be a fault state, the present invention can correct the fault probability of the load point and the fault recovery time of the load point based on the consideration of thermal inertia and time delay, so as to more accurately simulate the impact of the fault on the heat network. The fault recovery time of the load point in the second fault reliability data can be updated according to the length of the pipeline path from the load point to the faulty component, the water flow rate, the pipeline temperature data (such as the lowest heating temperature) and the temperature data of the load point (such as the lowest drop temperature). At the same time, the fault probability can be updated according to the length of the pipeline path. The updated second fault reliability data can more accurately reflect the influence of thermal inertia and time delay on the fault state of the load point, thereby generating more accurate fault state data to accurately assess the reliability of the heat network.

[0128] In a preferred embodiment, the heat load reduction aims to minimize the sum of the economic penalty of reducing the heat power at each load point, the importance of the load point and the product of the reduced heat power. The preset heat network load reduction model is:

[0129]

[0130] Where f is the total cost of heat load reduction, G k is the penalty cost for reducing unit thermal power at load point k, u k is the heat load weight coefficient of load point k, ΔΦ k is the thermal power reduced at load point k, and M is the set of load points in the thermal network.

[0131] In the heat network load reduction model, the economic penalty of reducing thermal power at each load point and the importance of the load point are taken into account. The load reduction strategy can be dynamically adjusted according to the real-time status and demand of the load point to balance economy and reliability.

[0132] Therefore, the embodiment of the present invention can improve the traditional Monte Carlo simulation method and take into account the influence of the delay of the heating network and the thermal inertia of the load point. The improved sequential Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the system operation state of the heating network, taking into account the influence of the thermal inertia and delay of the load point, so as to more accurately evaluate the reliability of the heating network.

[0133] In a preferred embodiment, the present invention can also perform an overall reliability assessment on the electric-thermal integrated energy system after electric-thermal coupling, and obtain a reliability assessment result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system, which can be specifically:

[0134] When the component operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the grid components, power supply components, heat network components, heat source components and coupling components in the electric-thermal integrated energy system, and the reliability evaluation result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system is the reliability evaluation result of the electric-thermal coupling;

[0135] When the load point fault analysis operation is repeatedly performed, the process of generating the fault state data corresponding to each load point when the state is transferred specifically includes:

[0136] Acquire operation data corresponding to the electric-thermal integrated energy system when the faulty component is transferred from a faulty state to a normal operating state;

[0137] When it is determined that the faulty element is a power supply element, a heat source element or a coupling element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to a preset electric-thermal coupling load reduction model to generate a power flow calculation result; when it is determined that the faulty element is a power grid element or a heat network element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to the power flow calculation model to generate a power flow calculation result;

[0138] For each load point, when determining whether the faulty element is a heat network element, a heat source element or a coupling element, when determining whether the load state is a normal state, if so, then based on the flow calculation result and the second fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element, generate the fault state data corresponding to the load point when the state is transferred; if not, obtain the second fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element; update the fault recovery time of the load point in the second fault reliability data according to the length of the pipeline path from the load point to the faulty element, the water flow velocity corresponding to the pipeline path, the pipeline temperature data and the temperature data of the load point; update the fault occurrence probability of the load point in the second fault reliability data according to the pipeline path from the load point to the faulty element; update the second fault reliability data according to the updated fault recovery time of the load point and the updated fault occurrence probability of the load point, and generate the updated second fault reliability data; generate the fault state data corresponding to the load point when the state is transferred according to the flow calculation result and the updated second fault reliability data;

[0139] When it is determined that the faulty element is a power supply element or a grid element, fault state data corresponding to the load point during state transfer is generated according to the power flow calculation result and the first fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element.

[0140] It is understandable that in the evaluation process of the electric-thermal integrated energy system after electric-thermal coupling, different faulty components (such as power supply components, heat source components, coupling components, grid components or heat network components) have different effects on the system. By setting the judgment conditions, different processing strategies can be adopted for different types of faulty components, so as to more accurately evaluate their impact on system reliability. For example, for the failure of heat network components, heat source components or coupling components, due to the influence of thermal inertia and delay, it is necessary to specially consider the failure recovery time of the load point and the update of the probability of failure.

[0141] When part of the power supply or heat source of the system fails, it is necessary to reduce part of the load to maintain the continuous energy supply of the remaining important loads. The optimal energy flow calculation is the load reduction of the electric-thermal integrated energy system. The load point importance coefficient can be included in the calculation to ensure the reliability of important load points as much as possible, with the goal of minimizing the economic penalty for reducing electricity and heat loads. The electric-thermal coupled load reduction model of the electric-thermal integrated energy system is formulated as follows:

[0142]

[0143] Among them, F is the total cost corresponding to load reduction, C i is the penalty cost for reducing unit power at load point i, G kis the penalty cost for reducing unit thermal power at load point k, v i is the electric load weight coefficient of load point i, u k is the heat load weight coefficient of load point k, ΔP i is the electric power cut at load point i, ΔΦ k is the thermal power cut at load point k, N and M are the load point sets of the power grid and the heat network respectively;

[0144] The multi-energy flow balance constraints of the electric-thermal coupled load reduction model are constructed according to the following formula:

[0145]

[0146] Among them, P source and Φ source are the energy supply power of the power supply and the energy supply power of the heat source under normal conditions, P cutoff and Φ cutoff The power supply missing due to power outage and the energy supply missing due to heat source outage are respectively

[0147] Power, P i is the electrical load at the load point, ΔP i is the electric power cut at the load point, P loss kk is the fault state

[0148] Network electrical power loss, Φ k is the heat load at the load point, ΔΦ k is the thermal power cut at the load point, Φ loss is the network thermal power loss under fault conditions;

[0149] The curtailable electric power constraint, curtailable thermal power constraint, power source output constraint, and heat source output constraint of the electric-thermal coupling load curtailment model are constructed according to the following formulas:

[0150] 0≤ΔP i ≤P i s ;

[0151] 0≤ΔΦ k ≤Φ k s ;

[0152]

[0153]

[0154] Among them, P i s is the maximum value of the electric power that can be reduced, Φ k sTo reduce the maximum thermal power, are the lower limit and upper limit of power output under normal conditions, respectively. They are respectively the lower limit and upper limit of the heat source output under normal conditions.

[0155] Indicatively, the calculation results of the electric-thermal coupled load reduction model must not only satisfy the multi-energy flow balance of the electric-thermal integrated energy system under fault conditions, but also meet the restrictions of the system network on state variables, such as node voltage constraints, branch capacity constraints, power output constraints, load point power reduction constraints and other inequality constraints in the distribution network, restrictions on heating temperature and heat recovery temperature at load points in the heat network, restrictions on flow rate by heat network pipelines, output restrictions on heat sources, and restrictions on thermal power that can be reduced at load points.

[0156] In schematic form, by constructing an electrothermal coupled load reduction model, it can be flexibly adjusted according to different fault scenarios and operating conditions to adapt to different load demands and energy supply conditions, so that the generated power flow calculation results can more accurately reflect the actual situation of the system, thereby making the reliability assessment results more accurate.

[0157] For step S3, in a preferred embodiment, the system power supply interruption frequency refers to the number of times the system is interrupted due to a fault within a certain period of time, reflecting the frequency of system failures. By counting the number of interruptions under different fault conditions, statistical data on the system power supply interruption frequency can be obtained, and then the stability and reliability of the system can be analyzed.

[0158] The system power supply interruption time refers to the duration of each power supply interruption, which reflects the system's ability to restore power supply, that is, the time it takes for the system to quickly restore normal power supply after a fault occurs. By calculating the interruption time under different fault conditions, statistical data on the system power supply interruption time can be obtained, and then the system's performance in fault recovery can be evaluated.

[0159] The system energy availability rate refers to the ratio of the time that the system can supply energy normally to the total time within a certain period of time, which reflects the stability and reliability of the system's energy supply. By calculating the system's energy availability rate under different fault conditions, we can understand the system's energy supply stability and reliability level under various circumstances. The system's energy shortage refers to the energy that fails to meet user needs due to system failures or load reductions within a certain period of time, which reflects the system's ability to meet user needs. By calculating the system's energy shortage under different fault conditions, we can understand the system's energy supply capacity and the degree of satisfaction of user needs under various circumstances.

[0160] Through the above reliability evaluation results, the reliability of the system can be evaluated, which can timely discover the weak links and potential risks of the system and provide strong support for the optimization and improvement of the system. At the same time, these evaluation results can also provide a basis for the scheduling and operation strategy formulation of the system to ensure that the system can operate stably and meet user needs under various circumstances.

[0161] In a preferred embodiment, Figure 2 The reliability assessment process diagram shown in the figure is as follows:

[0162] (1) Obtain the network parameters of the integrated energy system (mainly including distribution network load point data, feeder data, component failure rate and repair time data, as well as heat network load point data, branch pipeline data, valve data) and environmental parameters (mainly including heating standard temperature, building indoor temperature, external ambient temperature, water density, specific heat capacity, heat loss coefficient, etc.).

[0163] (2) Determine the location, upper and lower output limits, failure rate, and repair time of coupling components such as cogeneration units, electric boilers, and heat pumps.

[0164] (3) Based on the idea of ​​feeder partitioning for the distribution network subsystem, determine the feeder partition and sub-feeder partition where each load point in the distribution network is located, and determine whether each line is equipped with circuit breakers, disconnectors and fuses, as well as the location of tie switches and transformers. Based on the idea of ​​valve classification for the heat network subsystem, it is necessary to calculate and allocate valve and load point levels according to the network structure to indicate the degree of impact. At the same time, determine the pipeline repair time based on the pipe diameter data and calculate the cross-sectional area of ​​the pipeline.

[0165] (4) According to the distributed solution method, the multi-energy flow balance of the electric-thermal integrated energy system under steady-state operation can be calculated. The steady-state power flow of the heat network can be calculated according to the forward-backward method to obtain key information such as node heating temperature, heat recovery temperature, branch mass flow rate, and heat source output power. Then, according to the mathematical model of the coupling element, the thermal power output of the coupling element in the heat network is converted into electrical load or electrical power. Finally, the power flow of the distribution network is calculated according to the forward-backward method of the distribution network, so as to obtain information such as the output of the upper-level power grid.

[0166] (5) For each electrical load point, determine the path connecting it to the power supply based on the location of the load point, and determine the minimum path in the path set. Distinguish between minimum path components and non-minimum path components, and determine the component-load point failure influencing factor table based on the minimum path failure consequence analysis method.

[0167] For each heat load point, the path and distance to the heat source are determined according to the load point location, and the component-load point failure influencing factor table is determined according to the path, valve and load point level.

[0168] (6) Assume that all components are initially in normal state and the simulation time is reset to zero.

[0169] (7) Determine whether the reliability assessment object is a coupled electric-thermal integrated energy system or a decoupled distribution network or a decoupled heat network;

[0170] (8) Sample the time sequence states of the components in the system one by one to form a state transition time sequence diagram of a single component. After each state transition process, perform fault state analysis and calculation on all load points, and reflect the results on the reliability index of the load point.

[0171] (9) If the evaluation object is an electrothermal coupling system or an independently operated heating network system, determine whether thermal inertia and time delay need to be taken into account. If so, go to (10); otherwise, go to (11).

[0172] (10) Taking into account the thermal inertia and delay of the heating network, correct the failure time and failure rate of the load point.

[0173] (11) Obtain the impact range of the system failure at the corresponding moment, thereby calculating the operating status of the system at this time, and reflecting the impact on the energy supply of the load point on the reliability index of the load point.

[0174] (12) Analyze each load point one by one to determine whether it is in a fault state. If it is not in a fault state, the fault data of the load point (i.e., the reliability index) is not modified, and the fault data of the load point is modified.

[0175] (13) If the faulty component is a power source, a heat source, or a coupling element, determine whether it is necessary for the system to perform load reduction. If so, proceed to (14); otherwise, proceed to (15).

[0176] (14) Calculate the optimal power flow based on the load reduction model of the integrated energy system, reduce the electric and thermal loads according to the calculation results, and include the resulting impacts, such as reduced electricity and heat, into the load point reliability index.

[0177] (15) Based on the above influences, the reliability index of each load point is accumulated and modified. The schematic load point indexes of the distribution network include: load point outage rate, load point outage time, load point annual unavailability rate, and load point power shortage; the load point indexes of the heat network include: system average interruption frequency index, system average interruption duration index, average heat availability index, and expected heat shortage.

[0178] (16) Convergence judgment: when the simulation period is less than the set period T max When , return to (7) and continue similar calculations for the next state transfer process until the simulation period is greater than the set period.

[0179] (17) Finally, based on the existing load point reliability indicators, the system-level reliability indicators are calculated, including the system power supply interruption frequency, system power supply interruption time, system energy availability, and system power shortage. The reliability assessment results of the electric-thermal integrated energy system are output, which can be: the reliability assessment results of the power grid, the reliability assessment results of the heat network, and the reliability assessment results of the electric-thermal coupling.

[0180] like Figure 3 As shown, based on the above-mentioned various embodiments of the reliability assessment method of the electric-thermal integrated energy system, the present invention provides a corresponding device embodiment;

[0181] An embodiment of the present invention provides a reliability assessment device for an electric-thermal integrated energy system, comprising: a data acquisition module, a load point fault analysis module, and a reliability assessment module;

[0182] The data acquisition module is used to acquire the energy supply structure model, the component operation model and the coupling element data; wherein the energy supply structure model is used to characterize the network structure characteristics and the load point operation characteristics of the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the component operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the components in the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the coupling element data is used to characterize the fault repair characteristics of the coupling element; the coupling element is a component used to realize energy conversion;

[0183] The load point fault analysis module is used to repeatedly perform the load point fault analysis operation until the current time period is the same as the preset time period, and output the fault status data of each load point when the load point fault analysis operation is performed each time;

[0184] The reliability evaluation module is used to generate a reliability evaluation result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system according to each fault state data, the number of load points and the number of users at each load point; wherein the reliability evaluation result includes: system energy supply interruption frequency, system energy supply interruption time, system energy availability and system energy shortage;

[0185] The load point fault analysis operation includes:

[0186] When it is determined that the current time period is less than the preset time period, the operation state of the electric-thermal integrated energy system in the current time period is simulated according to the current time period, the energy supply structure model, the component operation model and the coupling component data, the state of each component is sampled and a state transition timing diagram of each component is generated;

[0187] According to the operation data corresponding to the state transition in each state transition timing diagram and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the state transition of the electric-thermal integrated energy system, the fault state data corresponding to each load point at the time of state transition is generated; wherein the fault state data includes: the number of power outages, the power outage time, the fault repair time and the lost energy;

[0188] The current time period is added with the preset period increment to obtain an updated time period, and the updated time period is used as the current time period when the load point fault analysis operation is performed next time.

[0189] It should be noted that the device embodiments described above are merely schematic, wherein the modules described as separate components may or may not be physically separated, and the components displayed as modules may or may not be physical modules, and may be located in one place or distributed on multiple network modules. Some or all of the modules may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the scheme of this embodiment. In addition, in the accompanying drawings of the device embodiments provided by the present invention, the connection relationship between the modules indicates that there is a communication connection between them, which may be specifically implemented as one or more communication buses or signal lines. Those of ordinary skill in the art can understand and implement it without paying creative labor.

[0190] Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that, for the sake of convenience and simplicity, the specific working process of the device described above can refer to the corresponding process in the aforementioned method embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0191] Based on the above-mentioned various embodiments of the reliability assessment method of the electric-thermal integrated energy system, the present invention provides corresponding embodiments of the terminal equipment item.

[0192] An embodiment of the present invention provides a terminal device, including a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, wherein when the processor executes the computer program, it implements a reliability assessment method for an electric-thermal integrated energy system described in any method embodiment of the present invention.

[0193] The terminal device may be a computing terminal device such as a desktop computer, a notebook, a palm computer, a cloud server, etc. The terminal device may include, but is not limited to, a processor and a memory.

[0194] The processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. A general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or any conventional processor, etc. The processor is the control center of the terminal device, and uses various interfaces and lines to connect various parts of the entire terminal device.

[0195] The memory can be used to store the computer program, and the processor realizes various functions of the terminal device by running or executing the computer program stored in the memory and calling the data stored in the memory. The memory can mainly include a program storage area and a data storage area, wherein the program storage area can store an operating system, at least one application required for a function, etc.; the data storage area can store data created according to the use of the mobile phone, etc. In addition, the memory can include a high-speed random access memory, and can also include a non-volatile memory, such as a hard disk, a memory, a plug-in hard disk, a smart memory card (Smart Media Card, SMC), a secure digital (Secure Digital, SD) card, a flash card (Flash Card), at least one disk storage device, a flash memory device or other volatile solid-state storage device.

[0196] The above is a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be pointed out that a person skilled in the art can make several improvements and modifications without departing from the principle of the present invention. These improvements and modifications are also considered to be within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A reliability assessment method for an electric-thermal integrated energy system, characterized in that: include: Acquire an energy supply structure model, an element operation model and coupling element data; wherein the energy supply structure model is used to characterize the network structure characteristics and load point operation characteristics of the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the element operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the elements in the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the coupling element data is used to characterize the fault repair characteristics of the coupling element; the coupling element is a component used to realize energy conversion; Repeat the load point fault analysis operation until the current time period is the same as the preset time period, and output the fault status data of each load point when the load point fault analysis operation is performed each time; Generate a reliability evaluation result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system according to each fault status data, the number of load points and the number of users at each load point; wherein the reliability evaluation result includes: system energy supply interruption frequency, system energy supply interruption time, system energy availability and system energy shortage; The load point fault analysis operation includes: When it is determined that the current time period is less than the preset time period, the operation state of the electric-thermal integrated energy system in the current time period is simulated according to the current time period, the energy supply structure model, the component operation model and the coupling component data, the state of each component is sampled and a state transition timing diagram of each component is generated; According to the operation data corresponding to the state transition in each state transition timing diagram and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the state transition of the electric-thermal integrated energy system, the fault state data corresponding to each load point at the time of state transition is generated; wherein the fault state data includes: the number of power outages, the power outage time, the fault repair time and the lost energy; The current time period is added with the preset period increment to obtain an updated time period, and the updated time period is used as the current time period when the load point fault analysis operation is performed next time.

2. A reliability assessment method for an electric-thermal integrated energy system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The state transition timing diagram includes: each moment corresponds to a component state; the component state includes a normal operating state or a fault state; The method generates the fault state data corresponding to each load point at the time of state transfer according to the operation data corresponding to the state transfer in each state transfer timing diagram and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the state transfer of the electric-thermal integrated energy system, including: According to the state transition timing diagram corresponding to each component, the fault moments corresponding to several fault states are determined; The element corresponding to each fault moment is marked as a fault element. For each fault element, the fault state data corresponding to each load point at the time of state transfer is generated based on the operating data corresponding to the electric and thermal integrated energy system when the fault element is transferred from the fault state to the normal operating state, and the flow calculation results corresponding to the operating data.

3. A reliability assessment method for an electric-thermal integrated energy system according to claim 2, characterized in that: The component operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the grid components, power supply components and coupling components in the electric-thermal integrated energy system; The reliability assessment result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system is the reliability assessment result of the power grid; The generating of the fault state data corresponding to each load point when the state is transferred according to the operation data corresponding to the electric-thermal integrated energy system when the faulty component is transferred from the faulty state to the normal operation state, and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the operation data, comprises: Acquire operation data corresponding to the electric-thermal integrated energy system when the faulty component is transferred from a faulty state to a normal operating state; When it is determined that the faulty element is a power element or a coupling element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to a preset power grid load reduction model to generate a power flow calculation result; when it is determined that the faulty element is a power grid element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to a preset power flow calculation model to generate a power flow calculation result; wherein the power flow calculation model is a power flow calculation model constructed by the operating characteristics of all elements in the electric and thermal integrated energy system; For each load point, the fault state data corresponding to the load point when the state is transferred is generated according to the power flow calculation result and the first fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element; wherein the first fault reliability data includes: the name of the feeder where the load point and the faulty element are located, the electrical path between the load point and the faulty element, the fault type of the faulty element, the fault type of the load point, the probability of the fault occurring at the load point and the fault recovery time of the load point.

4. A reliability assessment method for an electric-thermal integrated energy system according to claim 3, characterized in that: The component operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the heat network components, heat source components and coupling components in the electric and thermal integrated energy system; The reliability assessment result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system is the reliability assessment result of the heat network; The generating of the fault state data corresponding to each load point when the state is transferred according to the operation data corresponding to the electric-thermal integrated energy system when the faulty component is transferred from the faulty state to the normal operation state, and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the operation data, comprises: When it is determined that the faulty element is a power element or a coupling element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to a preset heat network load reduction model to generate a power flow calculation result; when it is determined that the faulty element is a power grid element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to the power flow calculation model to generate a power flow calculation result; Acquire the load state of each load point during the process of the faulty component transferring from the faulty state to the normal operating state; wherein the load state includes a normal state or a faulty state; For each load point, when it is determined that the load state is normal, the fault state data corresponding to the load point when the state is transferred is generated according to the power flow calculation result and the second fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element; wherein the second fault reliability data includes: the name of the valve between the load point and the faulty element, the pipeline path between the load point and the faulty element, the fault type of the faulty element, the fault type of the load point, the fault probability of the load point and the fault recovery time of the load point; When the load state is determined to be a fault state, the second fault reliability data between the load point and the fault element is obtained; the fault recovery time of the load point in the second fault reliability data is updated according to the length of the pipeline path from the load point to the fault element, the water flow velocity corresponding to the pipeline path, the pipeline temperature data and the temperature data of the load point; the fault occurrence probability of the load point in the second fault reliability data is updated according to the pipeline path from the load point to the fault element; the second fault reliability data is updated according to the updated fault recovery time of the load point and the updated fault occurrence probability of the load point, and the updated second fault reliability data is generated; the fault state data corresponding to the load point at the time of state transfer is generated according to the power flow calculation result and the updated second fault reliability data.

5. A reliability assessment method for an electric-thermal integrated energy system according to claim 4, characterized in that: The component operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the grid components, power supply components, heat network components, heat source components and coupling components in the electric and thermal integrated energy system; The reliability assessment result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system is the reliability assessment result of the electric-thermal coupling; The generating of the fault state data corresponding to each load point when the state is transferred according to the operation data corresponding to the electric-thermal integrated energy system when the faulty component is transferred from the faulty state to the normal operation state, and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the operation data, comprises: Acquire operation data corresponding to the electric-thermal integrated energy system when the faulty component is transferred from a faulty state to a normal operating state; When it is determined that the faulty element is a power supply element, a heat source element or a coupling element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to a preset electric-thermal coupling load reduction model to generate a power flow calculation result; when it is determined that the faulty element is a power grid element or a heat network element, a power flow calculation is performed on the operating data according to the power flow calculation model to generate a power flow calculation result; For each load point, when determining whether the faulty element is a heat network element, a heat source element or a coupling element, when determining whether the load state is a normal state, if so, then based on the flow calculation result and the second fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element, generate the fault state data corresponding to the load point when the state is transferred; if not, obtain the second fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element; update the fault recovery time of the load point in the second fault reliability data according to the length of the pipeline path from the load point to the faulty element, the water flow velocity corresponding to the pipeline path, the pipeline temperature data and the temperature data of the load point; update the fault occurrence probability of the load point in the second fault reliability data according to the pipeline path from the load point to the faulty element; update the second fault reliability data according to the updated fault recovery time of the load point and the updated fault occurrence probability of the load point, and generate the updated second fault reliability data; generate the fault state data corresponding to the load point when the state is transferred according to the flow calculation result and the updated second fault reliability data; When it is determined that the faulty element is a power supply element or a grid element, fault state data corresponding to the load point during state transfer is generated according to the power flow calculation result and the first fault reliability data between the load point and the faulty element.

6. A reliability assessment method for an electric-thermal integrated energy system according to claim 5, characterized in that: The pipeline temperature data includes: the lowest heating temperature of the pipeline; the load point temperature data includes: the lowest drop temperature of the load point; The updating of the fault recovery time of the load point in the second fault reliability data according to the length of the pipeline path from the load point to the fault element, the water flow velocity corresponding to the pipeline path, the pipeline temperature data and the temperature data of the load point includes: generating a heat energy transfer efficiency according to a ratio between a length of a pipeline path from a load point to a faulty element and a water flow velocity corresponding to the pipeline path; The fault recovery time is generated according to the heat energy transmission efficiency, the minimum heating temperature of the pipeline and the minimum drop temperature of the load point.

7. A reliability assessment method for an electric-thermal integrated energy system according to claim 6, characterized in that: The updating of the failure occurrence probability of the load point in the second fault reliability data according to the pipeline path from the load point to the fault element comprises: Obtaining a target length of a pipeline path from the load point to a faulty element; Compare the target length with a preset probability comparison table to determine the probability of a fault occurring corresponding to the target length; Wherein, the preset probability comparison table includes: a plurality of preset lengths; each preset length corresponds to a probability of a fault occurrence.

8. The reliability assessment method of an electric-thermal integrated energy system according to claim 5, characterized in that: The construction of the electric-thermal coupling load reduction model includes: The electric-thermal coupled load reduction model with the goal of minimizing the total cost of load reduction is constructed according to the following formula: Among them, F is the total cost corresponding to load reduction, C i is the penalty cost for reducing unit power at load point i, G k is the penalty cost for reducing unit thermal power at load point k, v i is the electric load weight coefficient of load point i, u k is the heat load weight coefficient of load point k, ΔP i is the electric power cut at load point i, ΔΦ k is the thermal power cut at load point k, N and M are the load point sets of the power grid and the heat network respectively; The multi-energy flow balance constraints of the electric-thermal coupled load reduction model are constructed according to the following formula: Among them, P source and Φ source are the energy supply power of the power supply and the energy supply power of the heat source under normal conditions, P cutoff and Φ cutoff are the energy supply power that is missing when the power source is out of service and the energy supply power that is missing when the heat source is out of service under the fault state, P i is the electrical load at load point i, ΔP i is the electric power cut at load point i, P loss is the network power loss in the fault state, Φ k is the heat load at load point k, ΔΦ k is the thermal power reduced at load point k, Φ loss is the network thermal power loss under fault conditions; The curtailable electric power constraint of the electric-thermal coupled load curtailment model is constructed according to the following formula: 0≤ΔP i ≤P i s ; The curtailable thermal power constraint of the electric-thermal coupled load curtailment model is constructed according to the following formula: 0≤ΔΦ k ≤Φ k s ; The power output constraint of the electric-thermal coupled load reduction model is constructed according to the following formula: The heat source output constraint of the electric-thermal coupling load reduction model is constructed according to the following formula: Among them, P i s is the maximum value of the electric power that can be reduced, Φ k s To reduce the maximum thermal power, They are the lower limit and upper limit of power output under normal conditions, They are respectively the lower limit and the upper limit of the heat source output under normal conditions.

9. A reliability assessment device for an electric-thermal integrated energy system, characterized in that: include: Data acquisition module, load point fault analysis module and reliability assessment module; The data acquisition module is used to acquire the energy supply structure model, the component operation model and the coupling element data; wherein the energy supply structure model is used to characterize the network structure characteristics and the load point operation characteristics of the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the component operation model is used to characterize the operation characteristics of the components in the electric-thermal integrated energy system; the coupling element data is used to characterize the fault repair characteristics of the coupling element; the coupling element is a component used to realize energy conversion; The load point fault analysis module is used to repeatedly perform the load point fault analysis operation until the current time period is the same as the preset time period, and output the fault status data of each load point when the load point fault analysis operation is performed each time; The reliability evaluation module is used to generate a reliability evaluation result of the electric-thermal integrated energy system according to each fault state data, the number of load points and the number of users at each load point; wherein the reliability evaluation result includes: system energy supply interruption frequency, system energy supply interruption time, system energy availability and system energy shortage; The load point fault analysis operation includes: When it is determined that the current time period is less than the preset time period, the operation state of the electric-thermal integrated energy system in the current time period is simulated according to the current time period, the energy supply structure model, the component operation model and the coupling component data, the state of each component is sampled and a state transition timing diagram of each component is generated; According to the operation data corresponding to the state transition in each state transition timing diagram and the power flow calculation result corresponding to the state transition of the electric-thermal integrated energy system, the fault state data corresponding to each load point at the time of state transition is generated; wherein the fault state data includes: the number of power outages, the power outage time, the fault repair time and the lost energy; The current time period is added with the preset period increment to obtain an updated time period, and the updated time period is used as the current time period when the load point fault analysis operation is performed next time.

10. A terminal device, characterized in that: It includes a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, and when the processor executes the computer program, it implements a reliability assessment method for an electric-thermal integrated energy system as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

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