Power load prediction and power and electric quantity balance calculation system and method

Abstract

The invention discloses a power load prediction and power and electric quantity balance calculation system and method, and relates to the technical field of power system load prediction, and the system comprises a basic data module, a data calculation module, and a data arrangement module. The basic data module is used for inputting basic data; the data calculation module is used for obtaining analysis data according to the calculation report input into the basic data module; and the data arrangement module is used for arranging the power balance data. According to the power load prediction and power and electric quantity balance calculation method provided by the invention, the load prediction and power and electric quantity balance calculation method is simplified and standardized, a large amount of manual energy is not required to be consumed for calculation, the measurement and calculation process and standard are unified, the measurement and calculation result deviation caused by different measurement and calculation modes or human errors is avoided, and the calculation efficiency is improved. A user is helped to find and check the correctness of basic data in time, a load prediction method is optimized, and the result accuracy is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power system load forecasting, and in particular to a power load forecasting and power quantity balance calculation system and method. Background Art

[0002] Load forecasting is an important and essential basic work for power grid planning, feasibility studies, etc. However, since there are many load forecasting methods, forecasting needs to be carried out based on the power and electricity balance. A large number of planners at grassroots units and design units cannot master the methods of load forecasting and power and electricity balance well. Currently, load forecasting can only be calculated through manual calculation, verification, or public display using Excel, which requires staff to have sufficient knowledge to be competent and consumes a lot of energy.

[0003] Although power balance calculations can be performed with the help of power system simulation software, simulation software is too professional and is generally only used by professional designers. It is not widely used, and personnel in power supply units, power grid companies, etc. do not have the conditions to use simulation software. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the above-mentioned problems, the present invention is proposed.

[0005] Therefore, the technical problem solved by the present invention is: how to simplify and standardize the load forecasting and power and electricity balance calculation methods.

[0006] To solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: a power load forecasting and power quantity balance calculation system, comprising: a basic data module, a data calculation module, and a data sorting module; the basic data module is used for inputting basic data; the data calculation module is used for obtaining analysis data based on the calculation report input into the basic data module; the data sorting module is used for sorting the power balance data.

[0007] As a preferred solution of the power load forecasting and power balance calculation system described in the present invention, wherein: the basic data module includes a point power supply load power forecast table generation module, a point power supply load power forecast table management module, and a planning year electric vehicle charging load management module;

[0008] The point power supply load power forecast table generation module is used for creating, modifying and importing basic data to generate a point power supply load power forecast table;

[0009] The point power supply load power forecast table management module is used for modifying and importing the point power supply load power forecast table;

[0010] The planned annual electric vehicle charging load management module is used for creating, modifying and importing electric vehicle charging pile source data.

[0011] As a preferred solution of the power load forecasting and power balance calculation system described in the present invention, wherein: the data calculation module includes a natural growth power supply load power forecast table management module, a power supply and load demand forecast table generation module, and a power supply maximum load forecast table generation module;

[0012] The natural growth power supply load power forecast table management module is used to receive data from the point power supply load power forecast generation module and the point power supply load power forecast result management module, and display and modify the data of the natural growth power supply load power forecast;

[0013] The power supply and load demand forecast table generation module is used to receive data from the natural growth power supply load power forecast table management module, and generate and display data for natural growth and point power supply;

[0014] The power supply maximum load prediction table generation module is used to receive and calculate the solution data in the power supply and load demand prediction table, and display the data of the power supply maximum load prediction result.

[0015] As a preferred solution of the power load forecasting and power and electricity balance calculation system described in the present invention, wherein: the data sorting module includes a first power balance basic management module and a second power balance basic management module;

[0016] The first power balance basic management module is used for creating, modifying and importing power balance basic 110 kV source data, and generating 110 kV power balance and voltage reduction capacity reports;

[0017] The second power balance basic management module is used for creating, modifying and importing the power balance basic 35 kV source data, and generating a 35 kV power balance and voltage reduction capacity report.

[0018] Another purpose of the invention is to provide a method for power load forecasting and power balance calculation. The traditional power load forecasting and power balance calculation process requires manual organization and input of a large amount of historical basic data, and then step-by-step analysis based on a specific calculation model, which consumes a lot of manpower and time. Especially when comparing multiple plans, repetitive calculations further increase the workload and greatly affect work efficiency.

[0019] To solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: a method for calculating power load forecasting and power and electricity balance, comprising: a basic data module collects and organizes load forecasting and power and electricity balance data used in power grid-related planning, and establishes load forecasting and power and electricity balance calculation models and formulas; a data calculation module calculates the data required for load forecasting and power and electricity balance according to the load forecast and power and electricity balance calculation model formulas; a data sorting module sorts the calculated data into a table.

[0020] As a preferred solution of the power load forecasting and power balance calculation method of the present invention, wherein: the data collection and sorting includes collecting and entering the load forecasting data required for power grid planning through a point power supply load power forecasting table generation module to generate a point power supply load power forecasting table;

[0021] The point power supply load power forecast table management module is used to create, modify and import point power supply loads and electric vehicle charging loads;

[0022] The electric vehicle charging load management module in the planning year collects the load source data related to electric vehicle charging piles and establishes a charging load prediction model.

[0023] As a preferred solution of the power load forecasting and power balance calculation system described in the present invention, the calculation includes receiving the point power supply load power forecast table data in the basic data module through the natural growth power supply load power forecast table management module, calculating the natural growth load power forecast value, and automatically generating a load forecast report based on natural growth according to the historical load trend;

[0024] The power supply and load demand forecast table generation module receives the natural growth load forecast data, integrates the point power supply load data, and generates the power supply and load demand forecast table. The power supply forecast covers multiple schemes of different forecast models;

[0025] The maximum load forecast data is calculated and generated in the power supply maximum load forecast table generation module. The system calculates different schemes based on five load forecast models, and automatically removes extreme values ​​and marks high, medium and low schemes. Users can select the best load forecast scheme for further analysis based on actual needs.

[0026] As a preferred solution of the power load forecasting and power and electricity balance calculation method of the present invention, wherein: the data sorting includes sorting the 110 kV power balance basic data through the first power balance basic management module to generate a 110 kV power balance and step-down capacity report;

[0027] The relevant data of 35 kV power balance are sorted in the same way through the second power balance basic management module to generate a 35 kV power balance and voltage reduction capacity report, and ensure the coordination of the data with the upper-level balance data;

[0028] Finally, by sorting out the load forecast and power balance data, the required high, medium and low plans are selected to generate a complete load development report and a multi-plan comparison table of load forecast and power demand forecast.

[0029] A computer device comprises a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the processor implements the steps of the above-mentioned power load forecasting and power quantity balance calculation method when executing the computer program.

[0030] A computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the above-mentioned power load forecasting and power quantity balance calculation method.

[0031] Beneficial effects of the present invention: The power load forecasting and power balance calculation system and method provided by the present invention only need to collect the basic data of the system in previous years and enter it into the software to automatically calculate the required multiple load forecast results and realize power balance calculation. The load forecasting and power balance calculation method is used to provide accurate load forecasting and power balance data for planning personnel and design units of municipal power supply bureaus, district and county power supply bureaus, and to help business personnel provide theoretical basis for investment decisions;

[0032] Simplify and standardize the calculation methods of load forecasting and power balance. No need to spend a lot of manual effort on calculations. The load forecasting and power balance calculation models are solidified into the software. You only need to import the basic data to obtain the final results through the software. Unify the measurement process and standards to avoid deviations in the measurement results caused by different measurement methods or human errors. Add abnormal data verification and reminder functions to the software, and compare the predicted growth rate with the actual growth rate of historical data years to help users promptly discover and check the correctness of basic data, optimize the load forecasting method, and improve the accuracy of the results. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0033] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the accompanying drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the accompanying drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other accompanying drawings can be obtained based on these accompanying drawings without paying creative work.

[0034] Figure 1A schematic diagram of the structure of a power load forecasting and power balance calculation system provided by one embodiment of the present invention;

[0035] Figure 2 An overall flow chart of a method for power load forecasting and power and electricity balance calculation provided by one embodiment of the present invention;

[0036] Figure 3 An operation flow chart of a method for power load forecasting and power and electricity balance calculation provided by one embodiment of the present invention;

[0037] Figure 4 A calculation year setting interface of a power load forecasting and power and electricity balance calculation system provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0038] Figure 5 A basic data table of a power load forecasting and power balance calculation system provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0039] Figure 6 A power load development report of a power load forecasting and power balance calculation system provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0040] Figure 7 A point power supply load power forecast result table report of a power load forecasting and power power balance calculation system provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0041] Figure 8 A natural growth power supply load power forecast table management interface of a power load forecasting and power balance calculation system provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0042] Fig. 9 A 110 kV power balance and voltage reduction capacity report of a power load forecasting and power and electricity balance calculation system provided by one embodiment of the present invention;

[0043] Fig.10 A load prediction comparison table of a power load prediction and power and electricity balance calculation system is provided in one embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0044] In order to make the above-mentioned purposes, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the specific implementation methods of the present invention are described in detail below in conjunction with the drawings of the specification. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, but not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary persons in the art without creative work should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0045] In the following description, many specific details are set forth to facilitate a full understanding of the present invention, but the present invention may also be implemented in other ways different from those described herein, and those skilled in the art may make similar generalizations without violating the connotation of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.

[0046] Example 1

[0047] Reference Figure 1 , is an embodiment of the present invention, and provides a power load forecasting and power balance calculation system, comprising:

[0048] Basic data module 100, data calculation module 200, data sorting module 300;

[0049] The basic data module 100 is used for inputting basic data;

[0050] The data calculation module 200 is used to obtain analytical data based on the calculation report of the input basic data module;

[0051] The data sorting module 300 is used to sort the power balance data.

[0052] The basic data module 100 includes a point power supply load power forecast table generation module 101, a point power supply load power forecast table management module 102, and a planning year electric vehicle charging load management module 103;

[0053] The point power supply load power forecast table generation module 101 is used for creating, modifying and importing basic data to generate a point power supply load power forecast table;

[0054] The point power supply load power forecast table management module 102 is used for modifying and importing the point power supply load power forecast table;

[0055] The annual electric vehicle charging load management module 103 is used for creating, modifying and importing the electric vehicle charging pile source data.

[0056] The data calculation module 200 includes a natural growth power supply load power forecast table management module 201, a power supply and load demand forecast table generation module 202, and a power supply maximum load forecast table generation module 203;

[0057] The natural growth power supply load power forecast table management module 201 is used to receive data from the point power supply load power forecast generation module 101 and the point power supply load power forecast result management module 102, and display and modify the data of the natural growth power supply load power forecast;

[0058] The power supply and load demand forecast table generation module 202 is used to receive the data of the natural growth power supply load power forecast table management module 201, and generate and display the data for natural growth and point power supply;

[0059] The power supply maximum load prediction table generation module 203 is used to receive and calculate the solution data in the power supply and load demand prediction table 202, and display the data of the power supply maximum load prediction result.

[0060] The data sorting module 300 includes a first power balance basic management module 301 and a second power balance basic management module 302;

[0061] The first power balance basic management module 301 is used for creating, modifying and importing power balance basic 110 kV source data, and generating a 110 kV power balance and voltage reduction capacity report;

[0062] The second power balance basic management module 302 is used for creating, modifying and importing power balance basic 35 kV source data, and generating a 35 kV power balance and voltage reduction capacity report.

[0063] Example 2

[0064] See also Figure 2-Figure 3 , as an embodiment of the present invention, provides a mixed environmentally friendly gas ratio method, comprising:

[0065] S1: The basic data module collects and organizes the load forecast and power balance data used in the grid-related planning, establishes the load forecast and power balance calculation models and formulas, develops the load forecast and power balance calculation programs based on the models, collects and enters the load forecast data required for grid planning through the point power supply load power forecast table generation module to generate the point power supply load power forecast table; the point power supply load power forecast table management module creates, modifies and imports the point power supply load and electric vehicle charging load; the planning year electric vehicle charging load management module collects the load source data related to the electric vehicle charging pile and establishes the charging load prediction model;

[0066] The calculation year input function is set up, and the base year and target year can be manually input. The software will automatically generate the relevant years involved in the five-year plan, which is convenient for power grid planners to carry out the 15th Five-Year Plan.

[0067] S2: The data calculation module calculates the data required for load forecasting and power balance according to the load forecast and power balance calculation model formula; receives the point power supply load power forecast table data in the basic data module through the natural growth power supply load power forecast table management module, calculates the natural growth load power forecast value, and automatically generates a load forecast report based on natural growth according to the historical load trend; the power supply and load demand forecast table generation module receives the natural growth load forecast data, integrates the point power supply load data, and generates the power supply and load demand forecast table. The power supply forecast covers multiple schemes of different forecast models; calculates and generates the maximum load forecast data in the power supply maximum load forecast table generation module. The system calculates different schemes according to five load forecast models, and automatically removes extreme values ​​and marks high, medium and low schemes. Users can select the best load forecast scheme according to actual needs for further analysis.

[0068] S3: The data sorting module sorts the calculated data into a table. The 110 kV power balance basic data is sorted through the first power balance basic management module to generate a 110 kV power balance and voltage reduction capacity report; the relevant data of the 35 kV power balance is sorted in the same way through the second power balance basic management module to generate a 35 kV power balance and voltage reduction capacity report, and ensure the coordination of the data with the previous level balance data; finally, through the sorted load forecast and power balance data, the required high, medium and low schemes are selected to generate a complete load development report, as well as a multi-scheme comparison table of load forecast and power demand forecast.

[0069] Example 3

[0070] An embodiment of the present invention is different from the first two embodiments in that:

[0071] If the functions are implemented in the form of software functional units and sold or used as independent products, they can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, or the part that contributes to the prior art or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. The computer software product is stored in a storage medium, including several instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes: U disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), disk or optical disk, etc., which can store program code.

[0072] The logic and / or steps represented in the flowchart or otherwise described herein, for example, can be considered as an ordered list of executable instructions for implementing logical functions, and can be embodied in any computer-readable medium for use by an instruction execution system, device or apparatus (such as a computer-based system, a system including a processor, or other system that can fetch instructions from an instruction execution system, device or apparatus and execute instructions), or in conjunction with such instruction execution systems, devices or apparatuses. For the purposes of this specification, "computer-readable medium" can be any device that can contain, store, communicate, propagate or transmit a program for use by an instruction execution system, device or apparatus, or in conjunction with such instruction execution systems, devices or apparatuses.

[0073] More specific examples of computer-readable media (a non-exhaustive list) include the following: an electrical connection with one or more wires (electronic device), a portable computer disk case (magnetic device), a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable and programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber device, and a portable compact disk read-only memory (CDROM). In addition, the computer-readable medium may even be a paper or other suitable medium on which the program is printed, since the program may be obtained electronically, for example, by optically scanning the paper or other medium, followed by editing, deciphering or, if necessary, processing in another suitable manner, and then stored in a computer memory.

[0074] It should be understood that the various parts of the present invention can be implemented by hardware, software, firmware or a combination thereof. In the above-mentioned embodiments, a plurality of steps or methods can be implemented by software or firmware stored in a memory and executed by a suitable instruction execution system. For example, if implemented by hardware, as in another embodiment, it can be implemented by any one of the following technologies known in the art or their combination: a discrete logic circuit having a logic gate circuit for implementing a logic function for a data signal, a dedicated integrated circuit having a suitable combination of logic gate circuits, a programmable gate array (PGA), a field programmable gate array (FPGA), etc.

[0075] Example 4

[0076] See also Figures 4 to 10 , which is an embodiment of the present invention, provides a specific application example of an electric power load forecasting and electric power balance calculation system.

[0077] Collect and organize the load forecasting and power balance methods used in power grid related planning, establish load forecasting and power balance calculation models and formulas, and develop load forecasting and power balance calculation programs based on the models. Figure 4, a calculation year input function is set up, and the base year and target year can be manually input. The software will automatically generate the relevant years involved in the five-year plan, which is convenient for power grid planners to carry out the 15th Five-Year Plan. According to the data and steps required for calculating load forecasts and power and electricity balance in normal power grid planning work, basic data tables are formed after sorting, and taking the relevant data of the 14th Five-Year Plan as an example, a unified data import template is created (including economic and load forecast tables, large user data, 110 kV and 35 kV power balance and step-down capacity calculation data tables). By importing the basic data required for the 14th Five-Year Plan, in the economic and load situation table management module, click on the power demand forecast in the report display interface to obtain the power load development report, such as Figure 5 The budget results can be exported to EXCEL for use by power grid planners.

[0078] By importing the basic data required for the 14th Five-Year Plan, in the point power supply load power forecast result table management, click the power demand forecast in the report display interface to obtain the point power supply load power forecast result table report, such as Figure 6 .

[0079] By importing the basic data required for the 14th Five-Year Plan, in the planning year electric vehicle charging load management module, click the power demand forecast in the report display interface to obtain the annual electric vehicle charging load report, such as Figure 7 By using the data from the previous modules, click on the power demand forecast in the report display interface to obtain the natural growth power supply load forecast table.

[0080] like Figure 8 In the natural growth power supply load / power forecast table management module, five prediction results are predicted based on five prediction models (linear, polynomial, logarithmic, exponential, and phoenix). Based on the prediction results, the system will remove the highest and lowest values ​​of the prediction based on the target year, and then automatically mark the high, medium, and low scenarios of the prediction. You can also manually select the high, medium, and low scenarios.

[0081] Click the power demand forecast in the report display interface to obtain the power supply and load demand forecast table in the 14th Five-Year Plan. Click the power demand forecast in the report display interface to obtain the power supply maximum load forecast result table. In addition to the above load forecast function, this system can also realize power balance calculation. This function is mainly used for the creation, modification, and import of 110 kV source data based on power balance.

[0082] like Fig. 9, after collecting and importing the basic data in the 14th Five-Year Plan, click on the power demand forecast in the report display interface to obtain the 110 kV power balance and voltage reduction capacity report. , after collecting and importing the basic data in the 14th Five-Year Plan, click on the power demand forecast in the report display interface to obtain the 110 kV power balance and voltage reduction capacity report. The final load forecast will be compared with the load in previous years to help planners intuitively see whether the forecast differences are large.

[0083] like Fig.10 The software has the function of comparing the predicted growth rate with the actual growth rate of historical data years, which helps users to timely discover and check the correctness of basic data, optimize the load forecasting method, and improve the accuracy of the results.

[0084] It should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions of the present invention may be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the present invention, which should all be included in the scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A power load forecasting and power balance calculation system, characterized in that: include: Basic data module (100), data calculation module (200), data sorting module (300); The basic data module (100) is used for inputting basic data; The data calculation module (200) is used to obtain analysis data according to the calculation report input into the basic data module; The data sorting module (300) is used to sort the power balance data.

2. The power load forecasting and power balance calculation system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The basic data module (100) comprises a point power supply load power forecast table generation module (101), a point power supply load power forecast table management module (102), and a planned year electric vehicle charging load management module (103); The point power supply load power forecast table generation module (101) is used for creating, modifying and importing basic data to generate a point power supply load power forecast table; The point power supply load power forecast table management module (102) is used for modifying and importing the point power supply load power forecast table; The planned annual electric vehicle charging load management module (103) is used for creating, modifying and importing electric vehicle charging pile source data.

3. The power load forecasting and power balance calculation system according to claim 2, characterized in that: The data calculation module (200) comprises a natural growth power supply load quantity prediction table management module (201), a power supply quantity and load demand prediction table generation module (202), and a power supply maximum load prediction table generation module (203); The naturally growing power supply load power forecast table management module (201) is used to receive data from the point power supply load power forecast generation module (101) and the point power supply load power forecast result management module (102), and to display and modify the data of the naturally growing power supply load power forecast; The power supply and load demand forecast table generation module (202) is used to receive data from the natural growth power supply load power forecast table management module (201), and generate and display data for natural growth and point power supply; The power supply maximum load prediction table generation module (203) is used to receive and calculate the solution data in the power supply quantity and load demand prediction table (202), and display the data of the power supply maximum load prediction result.

4. The power load forecasting and power balance calculation system according to claim 3, characterized in that: The data sorting module (300) comprises a first power balance basic management module (301) and a second power balance basic management module (302); The first power balance basic management module (301) is used for creating, modifying and importing power balance basic 110 kV source data, and generating a 110 kV power balance and voltage reduction capacity report; The second power balance basic management module (302) is used for creating, modifying and importing power balance basic 35 kV source data, and generating a 35 kV power balance and voltage reduction capacity report.

5. A method using the power load forecasting and power balance calculation system as described in any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that: include: The basic data module collects and organizes the load forecast and power balance data used in power grid-related planning, and establishes load forecast and power balance calculation models and formulas; The data calculation module calculates the data required for load forecasting and power balance according to the load forecasting and power balance calculation model formula; The data sorting module sorts the calculated data into a table.

6. The power load forecasting and power balance calculation system according to claim 5, characterized in that: The data collection and arrangement includes collecting and entering load forecast data required for power grid planning through a point power supply load power forecast table generation module to generate a point power supply load power forecast table; The point power supply load power forecast table management module is used to create, modify and import point power supply loads and electric vehicle charging loads; The electric vehicle charging load management module in the planning year collects the load source data related to electric vehicle charging piles and establishes a charging load prediction model.

7. The power load forecasting and power balance calculation system according to claim 6, characterized in that: The calculation includes receiving the point power supply load power forecast table data in the basic data module through the natural growth power supply load power forecast table management module, calculating the natural growth load power forecast value, and automatically generating a load forecast report based on natural growth according to the historical load trend; The power supply and load demand forecast table generation module receives the natural growth load forecast data, integrates the point power supply load data, and generates the power supply and load demand forecast table. The power supply forecast covers multiple schemes of different forecast models; The maximum load forecast data is calculated and generated in the power supply maximum load forecast table generation module. The system calculates different schemes based on five load forecast models, and automatically removes extreme values ​​and marks high, medium and low schemes. Users can select the best load forecast scheme for further analysis based on actual needs.

8. A system using the power load forecasting and power balance calculation system as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that: include: The data arrangement includes arranging the 110 kV power balance basic data through the first power balance basic management module to generate a 110 kV power balance and voltage reduction capacity report; The relevant data of 35 kV power balance are sorted in the same way through the second power balance basic management module to generate a 35 kV power balance and voltage reduction capacity report, and ensure the coordination of the data with the upper-level balance data; Finally, by sorting out the load forecast and power balance data, the required high, medium and low plans are selected to generate a complete load development report and a multi-plan comparison table of load forecast and power demand forecast.

9. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, wherein: When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the method for predicting electric power load and calculating electric power balance according to any one of claims 5 to 8 are implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the power load forecasting and power balance calculation method according to any one of claims 5 to 8 are implemented.

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