Water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method and system

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of coupling simulation, and discloses a water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method and system.The method comprises the steps that evaluation indexes of a water resource system, an energy system and a carbon emission system are determined, and water resource data, energy data and carbon emission data are obtained; the development conditions of a water resource system, an energy system and a carbon emission system are simulated in combination with the water resource data, the energy data and the carbon emission data; and analyzing the development coordination degree of the water resource system, the energy system and the carbon emission system by using the coupling coordination degree model and the system dynamics model. According to the method, firstly, indexes of water resource, energy and carbon subsystems are screened in combination with three aspects of total amount, structure and sustainability, function relations among the indexes are analyzed, secondly, future water, energy and carbon emission conditions are simulated, and finally, coupling relations among the three are explored through a coupling coordination degree model. Therefore, the coupling simulation of the water-energy-carbon link relationship is realized.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of coupled simulation, and in particular to a method and system for coupled simulation of water, energy and carbon. Background Art

[0002] The water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system are closely connected. Water resources are indispensable in the exploitation, production and use of energy; energy provides power support for the production, transportation and use of water resources; and the energy system is the direct driving factor of carbon emissions. The coupling and coordination of the "water-energy-carbon" system is directly related to resource utilization efficiency and carbon emissions. Therefore, understanding the coupling relationship of "water-energy-carbon" and exploring its system coordination are the inevitable choices for achieving optimal resource utilization and sustainable development.

[0003] At present, relevant research at home and abroad is mainly focused on the following aspects. From the perspective of research content, foreign countries mainly start from the water-energy-carbon relationship and resource consumption to conduct research. For example, by comparing the metabolism of four urban water supply systems, it is found that geographical, climatic, technological and social factors have an important impact on urban water-energy-carbon development. For example, by measuring the water footprint and carbon footprint of the energy supply combination, the study found that water and carbon emissions need to be coordinated to ensure the sustainable development of energy and water. Domestically, the coupling relationship between "water-energy-carbon" is mainly explored from the perspective of sustainable economic and social development, while taking into account climate change, water resources, green and low-carbon research. From the perspective of research methods, one is the top-down input-output model (MRIO model). This method is simple and intuitive, and can reveal the inherent connection between various links of economic activities, but there is still room for innovation in the compilation process of the input-output table. The second is the bottom-up life cycle method (LEA model). This method emphasizes the integrity of the system, but it is highly dependent on data and it is difficult to unify the system boundary division. The third is system dynamics (SD model). System dynamics is a mature method for quantifying complex feedbacks in system interactions. It has unique advantages in studying the correlation quantification of complex systems and the structure of the system. It can handle system problems with high-order terms, nonlinearity, and multiple feedbacks, and reveal internal causal relationships. However, it requires a high degree of accuracy in the abstract quantification of the relationships between various factors. The researchers established a system dynamics model for the urban drinking water system, determined the Spearman correlation, studied the relationship between water, energy, and carbon, and found that there is a significant correlation between them. In addition, there are many other methods such as the remote energy substitution plan system model and the supply chain network.

[0004] However, the current research on the "water-energy-carbon" correlation problem mainly stays at the level of resource flow analysis, and the discussion on the coupling mechanism is not in-depth enough, and most of the research perspectives tend to be macroscopic. "Water-energy-carbon" exhibits complex correlation characteristics. System dynamics has unique advantages in the study of the quantification of correlation relationships of complex systems and the structural research of systems. Foreign researchers have applied system dynamics methods to the analysis of "water-energy-carbon" coupling systems. At present, system dynamics methods have been well applied in "water-energy" and "water-energy-grain", indicating that this method is suitable for feedback and coupling simulation research of multi-factor coupling systems, and there is also a large research space in the study of "water-energy-carbon" coupling relationships. Therefore, how to provide a water, energy, and carbon coupling simulation method and system is a problem that needs to be solved urgently. Summary of the invention

[0005] The embodiments of the present invention provide a water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method and system to solve the above-mentioned technical problems in the prior art.

[0006] In order to have a basic understanding of some aspects of the disclosed embodiments, a brief summary is given below. This summary is not intended to be a general review, nor is it intended to identify key / important components or to delineate the scope of protection of these embodiments. Its only purpose is to present some concepts in a simple form as a preface to the detailed description that follows.

[0007] According to a first aspect of an embodiment of the present invention, a water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method is provided.

[0008] In one embodiment, the water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method comprises:

[0009] Determine the evaluation indicators of water resource system, energy system and carbon emission system respectively according to the preset perspectives, and obtain water resource data, energy data and carbon emission data respectively based on the evaluation indicators;

[0010] Based on system dynamics technology, water resources data, energy data and carbon emission data are combined to simulate the development status of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system;

[0011] The coupling coordination model and system dynamics model are used to analyze the degree of coordination in the development of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system.

[0012] In one embodiment, the step of determining evaluation indicators of the water resource system, the energy system, and the carbon emission system according to preset angles, and obtaining water resource data, energy data, and carbon emission data based on the evaluation indicators includes:

[0013] Based on the three perspectives of total volume, structure and sustainability, the evaluation indicators of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system are determined respectively;

[0014] According to the evaluation indicators, the evaluation index data of water resource system, energy system and carbon emission system are obtained respectively, and the index weight of each evaluation index data is determined by combining the hierarchical analysis method and entropy weight method;

[0015] Based on the evaluation index system of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system, comprehensive evaluation functions of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system are constructed respectively.

[0016] In one embodiment, the method of combining the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight method to determine the indicator weight of each evaluation indicator data includes:

[0017] The evaluation index data are divided into positive correlation index and negative correlation index, and normalization processing is performed on the positive correlation evaluation index data and the negative correlation evaluation index data respectively;

[0018] Based on the normalization processing results, the entropy value of each evaluation index data is calculated, and the corresponding index weight is determined according to the entropy value of each evaluation index data.

[0019] In one embodiment, the normalized calculation formula of the positive correlation index is:

[0020]

[0021] The normalized calculation formula for the negative correlation index is:

[0022]

[0023] In the formula, y ij represents the normalized value of the i-th sample under the j-th index, x ij represents the original value of the i-th sample under the j-th index, maxx ij 、minx ij They represent the maximum and minimum values ​​of the i-th sample under the j-th index respectively.

[0024] In one embodiment, the entropy value is calculated as follows:

[0025]

[0026] k=-lnn

[0027] In the formula, e j represents the entropy value of the jth indicator, k represents the standardization coefficient, and p ij represents the proportion of the normalized value of the i-th sample under the j-th index, y ij It represents the normalized value of the i-th sample under the j-th indicator, and n represents the total number of evaluation indicators.

[0028] In one embodiment, the calculation formula of the indicator weight is:

[0029]

[0030] In the formula, w ij represents the combined weight of the i-th sample under the j-th index, w i ′ represents the subjective weight of the i-th sample, w i ″″ represents the objective weight of the i-th sample.

[0031] In one embodiment, the expression of the comprehensive evaluation function of the water resource system is:

[0032]

[0033] The expression of the comprehensive evaluation function of the energy system is:

[0034]

[0035] The expression of the comprehensive evaluation function of the carbon emission system is:

[0036]

[0037] Where W (w) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources system, w i represents the system weight calculated by summing up the i water resources statistical indicators, x it represents the standardized value of the i-th water resources system evaluation index in year t, n represents the total number of evaluation indicators, E (e) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the energy system, e i represents the system weight calculated by summing up the i energy system indicators, y it represents the standardized value of the i-th energy system evaluation index in year t, C (c) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the carbon emission system, c i represents the system weight calculated by summing up the i carbon emission system indicators, z it It represents the standardized value of the evaluation index of the i-th energy system in year t.

[0038] In one embodiment, the system dynamics technology is used to simulate the development of water resource system, energy system and carbon emission system in combination with water resource data, energy data and carbon emission data, including:

[0039] Based on water resources data, energy data and carbon emission data, a causal relationship diagram between water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system is constructed;

[0040] According to the cause-effect diagram, the relationship between each variable is quantitatively determined, a system dynamics model based on hydro-energy-carbon is constructed, and the effectiveness, stability and sensitivity of the system dynamics model based on hydro-energy-carbon are verified;

[0041] Among them, variable types include transition variables, speed variables, auxiliary variables and constants.

[0042] In one embodiment, the use of the coupling coordination model and the system dynamics model to analyze the coordination degree of the development of the water resources system, the energy system, and the carbon emission system includes:

[0043] Based on the evaluation indicators of each system, the correlation between systems, the correlation between variables and the development simulation results, combined with the coupling coordination model and the system dynamics model based on water, energy and carbon, the strength of the interaction between the water, energy and carbon related systems is analyzed, the coupling development of the water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system is calculated, and the coupling coordination degree is divided into levels;

[0044] The calculation formula for the coupling development is:

[0045]

[0046]

[0047] T=aW (w) × (e) ×cC (c)

[0048] In the formula, C represents the coupling degree, D represents the coupling coordination degree, T represents the system comprehensive evaluation index; W (w) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources system, E (e) Represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the energy system, C (c) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the carbon emission system, and a, b, and c represent the weights of the water resources system, energy system, and carbon emission system, respectively.

[0049] According to a second aspect of an embodiment of the present invention, a water, energy and carbon coupling simulation system is provided.

[0050] In one embodiment, the water, energy and carbon coupling simulation system comprises:

[0051] A data acquisition module is used to determine the evaluation indicators of the water resource system, energy system and carbon emission system according to preset angles, and to obtain water resource data, energy data and carbon emission data based on the evaluation indicators;

[0052] The dynamics simulation module is used to simulate the development of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system based on system dynamics technology and combined with water resources data, energy data and carbon emission data;

[0053] The coordination degree analysis module is used to analyze the coordination degree of the development of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system by using the coupled coordination degree model and system dynamics model.

[0054] According to a third aspect of an embodiment of the present invention, a computer device is provided.

[0055] In some embodiments, the computer device includes a memory and a processor, the memory stores a computer program, and the processor implements the steps of the above method when executing the computer program.

[0056] According to a fourth aspect of embodiments of the present invention, a computer-readable storage medium is provided.

[0057] In one embodiment, the computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, and the computer program implements the steps of the above method when executed by a processor.

[0058] The technical solution provided by the embodiment of the present invention may have the following beneficial effects:

[0059] This invention innovatively proposes a "water-energy-carbon" coupling simulation method based on system dynamics. This method deeply analyzes the coordinated evolution mechanism among the three subsystems of water resources, energy and carbon emissions, and constructs a corresponding indicator system to quantify their coordinated correlation characteristics. Relying on the "water-energy-carbon" multi-scale high-precision networked basic database, this method can achieve a comprehensive integration and analysis of the complex relationship between water resources, energy and carbon emissions, making up for the shortcomings of current research on the complex correlation between "water-energy-carbon". This database not only focuses on water resources, energy, and carbon, but also widely covers the causal relationship network of complex systems such as society, economy, and environment, making the research results more reliable. By using system dynamics simulation technology, the present invention constructs a mutual feedback simulation model of the "water-energy-carbon" coupling system. The model can scientifically analyze the coupling relationship between "water-energy-carbon" from multiple dimensions such as environmental scale, technical scale, economic scale, social scale and policy scale, thus filling the gap in current research in this field, and providing powerful tools and support for in-depth understanding of the dynamic behavior of the "water-energy-carbon" coupling system and the formulation of relevant strategies, so that the research results can better serve the sustainable development goals and promote the coordinated management of water resources, energy and carbon emissions.

[0060] It is to be understood that the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory only and are not restrictive of the invention. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0061] The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the invention and, together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the invention.

[0062] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a method for coupling simulation of water, energy and carbon according to an exemplary embodiment;

[0063] Figure 2 is a structural block diagram of a water, energy and carbon coupling simulation system according to an exemplary embodiment;

[0064] Figure 3 is a schematic diagram showing the principle of a water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method according to an exemplary embodiment;

[0065] Figure 4 is a cause-and-effect diagram of a water resource system according to an exemplary embodiment;

[0066] Figure 5 is a cause-and-effect diagram of an energy system according to an exemplary embodiment;

[0067] Figure 6 is a cause-and-effect diagram of a carbon emission system according to an exemplary embodiment;

[0068] Figure 7 is a cause-and-effect relationship diagram among a water resource system, an energy system, and a carbon emission system according to an exemplary embodiment;

[0069] Figure 8 The figure is a schematic diagram showing the structure of a computer device according to an exemplary embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0070] The following description and accompanying drawings fully illustrate the specific embodiments of this article so that those skilled in the art can practice them. Parts and features of some embodiments may be included in or replace parts and features of other embodiments. The scope of the embodiments of this article includes the entire scope of the claims, as well as all available equivalents of the claims. Herein, the terms "first", "second", etc. are only used to distinguish one element from another, without requiring or implying any actual relationship or order between these elements. In fact, the first element can also be called the second element, and vice versa. Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or any other variant thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that the structure, device or equipment including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements that are not explicitly listed, or also include elements inherent to such structure, device or equipment. In the absence of more restrictions, the elements defined by the sentence "including one..." do not exclude the existence of other identical elements in the structure, device or equipment including the elements. Each embodiment is described in a progressive manner herein, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts between the embodiments can be referred to each other.

[0071] The terms "longitudinal", "lateral", "upper", "lower", "front", "back", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inside", "outside", etc. in this document indicate the orientation or position relationship based on the orientation or position relationship shown in the drawings, and are only for the convenience of describing this document and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the device or element referred to must have a specific orientation, be constructed and operate in a specific orientation, and therefore cannot be understood as a limitation on the present invention. In the description of this document, unless otherwise specified and limited, the terms "installed", "connected", and "connected" should be understood in a broad sense, for example, it can be a mechanical connection or an electrical connection, it can also be the internal communication of two elements, it can be a direct connection, or it can be indirectly connected through an intermediate medium. For ordinary technicians in this field, the specific meanings of the above terms can be understood according to specific circumstances.

[0072] As used herein, the term "plurality" means two or more than two, unless otherwise specified.

[0073] In this document, the character " / " indicates that the preceding and following objects are in an "or" relationship. For example, A / B means: A or B.

[0074] In this article, the term "and / or" is a description of the association relationship between objects, indicating that three relationships may exist. For example, A and / or B means: A or B, or, A and B.

[0075] It should be understood that, although the various steps in the flow chart are displayed in sequence according to the indication of the arrows, these steps are not necessarily executed in sequence according to the order indicated by the arrows. Unless there is a clear description in this article, the execution of these steps is not strictly limited in order, and these steps can be executed in other orders. Moreover, at least a portion of the steps in the figure may include multiple sub-steps or multiple stages, and these sub-steps or stages are not necessarily executed at the same time, but can be executed at different times, and the execution order of these sub-steps or stages is not necessarily to be carried out in sequence, but can be executed in turn or alternately with other steps or at least a portion of the sub-steps or stages of other steps.

[0076] Each module in the device or system of the present application can be implemented in whole or in part by software, hardware, or a combination thereof. The above modules can be embedded in or independent of a processor in a computer device in the form of hardware, or can be stored in a memory in a computer device in the form of software, so that the processor can call and execute operations corresponding to the above modules.

[0077] In the absence of conflict, the embodiments of the present invention and the features of the embodiments may be combined with each other.

[0078] Figure 1 An embodiment of a water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method of the present invention is shown.

[0079] In this optional embodiment, the water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method includes:

[0080] Step S101: Determine evaluation indicators of the water resource system, energy system and carbon emission system respectively according to preset angles, and obtain water resource data, energy data and carbon emission data respectively based on the evaluation indicators;

[0081] Step S103: Based on system dynamics technology, the development status of the water resource system, energy system and carbon emission system is simulated in combination with water resource data, energy data and carbon emission data;

[0082] Step S105: Analyze the degree of coordination among the development of the water resources system, the energy system, and the carbon emission system using the coupling coordination degree model and the system dynamics model.

[0083] In this optional embodiment, the steps of determining evaluation indicators of the water resource system, the energy system, and the carbon emission system according to preset angles, and obtaining water resource data, energy data, and carbon emission data based on the evaluation indicators include:

[0084] Based on the three perspectives of total volume, structure and sustainability, the evaluation indicators of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system are determined respectively;

[0085] According to the evaluation indicators, the evaluation index data of water resource system, energy system and carbon emission system are obtained respectively, and the index weight of each evaluation index data is determined by combining the hierarchical analysis method and entropy weight method;

[0086] Based on the evaluation index system of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system, comprehensive evaluation functions of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system are constructed respectively.

[0087] In this optional embodiment, the method of combining the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight method to determine the indicator weight of each evaluation indicator data includes:

[0088] The evaluation index data are divided into positive correlation index and negative correlation index, and normalization processing is performed on the positive correlation evaluation index data and the negative correlation evaluation index data respectively;

[0089] Based on the normalization processing results, the entropy value of each evaluation index data is calculated, and the corresponding index weight is determined according to the entropy value of each evaluation index data.

[0090] In this optional embodiment, the simulation of the development status of the water resource system, energy system and carbon emission system based on the system dynamics technology and combining water resource data, energy data and carbon emission data includes:

[0091] Based on water resources data, energy data and carbon emission data, a causal relationship diagram between water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system is constructed;

[0092] According to the cause-effect diagram, the relationship between each variable is quantitatively determined, a system dynamics model based on hydro-energy-carbon is constructed, and the effectiveness, stability and sensitivity of the system dynamics model based on hydro-energy-carbon are verified;

[0093] Among them, variable types include transition variables, speed variables, auxiliary variables and constants.

[0094] In this optional embodiment, the use of the coupling coordination model and the system dynamics model to analyze the degree of coordination of the development of the water resources system, the energy system, and the carbon emission system includes:

[0095] Based on the evaluation indicators of each system, the correlation between systems, the correlation between variables and the development simulation results, combined with the coupling coordination model and the system dynamics model based on water, energy and carbon, the strength of the interaction between the water, energy and carbon related systems is analyzed, the coupling development of the water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system is calculated, and the coupling coordination degree is divided into levels.

[0096] Figure 2 An embodiment of a water, energy and carbon coupling simulation system of the present invention is shown.

[0097] In this optional embodiment, the water, energy and carbon coupling simulation system includes:

[0098] The data acquisition module 201 is used to determine the evaluation indicators of the water resource system, the energy system and the carbon emission system according to the preset angles, and to obtain the water resource data, the energy data and the carbon emission data based on the evaluation indicators;

[0099] The dynamic simulation module 203 is used to simulate the development status of the water resource system, the energy system and the carbon emission system based on the system dynamics technology and in combination with the water resource data, the energy data and the carbon emission data;

[0100] The coordination degree analysis module 205 is used to analyze the coordination degree of the development of the water resource system, the energy system and the carbon emission system by using the coupled coordination degree model and the system dynamics model.

[0101] In order to facilitate understanding of the above technical solutions of the present invention, the above technical solutions of the present invention are further described below from the perspective of architecture and principle, as follows:

[0102] The present invention provides a water-energy-carbon coupling simulation method based on a system dynamics model, which solves the problem of ignoring the quantitative relationship and resource flow in the production, transfer and consumption process in the prior art. Figure 3 As shown in the figure, it is mainly divided into the following three parts: first, obtain data on water resources, energy and carbon emissions; second, simulate the development status of the three subsystems based on the system dynamics method (i.e., water resources subsystem construction, energy subsystem construction, and carbon subsystem construction); finally, combine the coupling coordination degree information to analyze the degree of coordination of the development of the three subsystems (i.e., water-energy-carbon coupling simulation).

[0103] 1. Construction of the “Water-Energy-Carbon” System Evaluation Index System

[0104] The model of the present invention includes three systems: water resources, energy and carbon emissions. Each subsystem selects indicators from the three perspectives of total volume, structure and sustainability, and a total of 32 evaluation indicators are selected (Table 1). The impact of each indicator on the system is represented by attributes, where + represents positive correlation and - represents negative correlation.

[0105] Table 1 Evaluation indicators

[0106]

[0107]

[0108] (1) Determine the indicator weights:

[0109] Assuming the number of water-energy-carbon system evaluation indicators is n, and the number of samples to be evaluated is m, first eliminate the dimensional differences of different indicators to establish the standard matrix Y. The normalized calculation formula of the positive correlation index is:

[0110]

[0111] The normalized calculation formula of the negative correlation index is:

[0112]

[0113] In the formula, x ij ,y ij represents the parameter value of index j with respect to sample i and its normalized sequence; y ij represents the normalized value, x ij represents the original value of the i-th sample under the j-th index, maxx ij 、minx ij Respectively represent the maximum and minimum values ​​of the j-th indicator.

[0114] According to the specific characteristics of entropy, the entropy value of each parameter in the evaluation system is calculated, and its expression is:

[0115] e j =-k∑(p ij ln ij ) (3)

[0116]

[0117] In the formula, e j represents the entropy value of the jth indicator, k represents the standardization coefficient, that is, k = -ln n, p ij Represents y ij The proportion of is calculated as shown in (4), and formula (3) is used to normalize the entropy value.

[0118] Then determine the indicator weights, and the calculation steps are as follows:

[0119]

[0120] Among them, W j represents the weight of the jth indicator ( 0≤W j ≤1), m represents the sample to be evaluated, e j The present invention combines the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight method to determine the indicator weights, effectively reducing the impact of subjective factors or excessive reliance on data on the evaluation, thereby improving the authenticity of the evaluation results.

[0121] (2) Comprehensive evaluation method:

[0122] According to the water-energy-carbon system evaluation index system, a water-energy-carbon comprehensive evaluation function is constructed, which can reflect the development level of each subsystem. The larger the index, the better the development, and vice versa. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0123]

[0124] In the formula, t represents the year, i represents the number of system indicators, and W (w) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources system, w i represents the system weight calculated by summing up the i water resources statistical indicators, x it represents the standardized value of the evaluation index of the i-th water resources system in the t-th year; E (e) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the energy system, e i represents the system weight calculated by summing up the i energy system indicators, y it represents the standardized value of the i-th energy system evaluation index in year t; C (c) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the carbon emission system, c i represents the system weight calculated by summing up the i carbon emission system indicators, z it It represents the standardized value of the evaluation index of the i-th energy system in year t.

[0125] 2. Construction of the “Water-Energy-Carbon” System Dynamics Model

[0126] System dynamics can solve and deal with delay phenomena and causal relationships between complex systems, set up planning schemes, reflect the dynamic changes of the system, and at the same time, make scientific predictions for missing data and simulate long time series. The "water-energy-carbon" system, the research object of this invention, is a complex coupling system, and it is expected to find a reasonable development direction to reduce the consumption of water resources and energy and control carbon emissions. Therefore, system dynamics is selected to limit future controllable variables.

[0127] (1) System causality:

[0128] On the basis of clarifying the boundaries of the "water-energy-carbon" system, the cause-effect relationship between the subsystems is clarified. There is a feedback mechanism between the elements, with "+" representing positive feedback and "-" representing negative feedback.

[0129] Water resource subsystem construction: Water resources are indispensable resources in life activities and production processes, and water resource reserves have become a key factor restricting regional development. The water resource subsystem is mainly constructed from the perspectives of population, GDP, total water supply, total water demand, and wastewater discharge. Figure 4 shown).

[0130] Energy subsystem construction: The energy subsystem is mainly analyzed from the perspectives of coal, oil, natural gas and other energy mining and production, life energy consumption, population, GDP, etc. Energy resource subsystem cause and effect diagram (such as Figure 5 shown).

[0131] Carbon subsystem construction: The country has put forward various measures to put pressure on my country to control greenhouse gas emissions. All industries must consider carbon emissions in the process of development, especially the energy consumption process. Therefore, the carbon subsystem is mainly analyzed from the perspectives of GDP, energy consumption carbon emissions, agricultural water carbon emissions, industrial water carbon emissions, etc. Carbon resource subsystem causal relationship diagram (such as Figure 6 shown).

[0132] (2) System model equation:

[0133] Water, energy, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change are never independent. The connection between WEC (i.e., the connection between water, energy and carbon emissions) provides important added value for complex systems, covering multiple economic sectors in different economies or regions. Therefore, in this embodiment, a causal relationship network (i.e., system flow diagram) of water resources, energy and carbon emissions is established, as shown in the following figure: Figure 7 shown.

[0134] After constructing the system flow chart, it is necessary to quantitatively determine the relationship between the variables. The main parameters of the model of the present invention are shown in Table 2. The level of economic development has an important impact on water resources, energy and carbon emissions. The energy consumption structure, industrial proportion and energy intensity directly affect the development direction of the system, so these variables are mainly considered.

[0135] Table 2 Some variables of the model

[0136]

[0137] (3) Model verification:

[0138] Historical verification: This invention verifies the validity of the "water-energy-carbon" system dynamics model through historical data of four indicators: GDP, total energy consumption, carbon emissions, and water resource demand. Usually, if the simulation effect is good and the error is within 10%, the model is considered valid; when the error is between 10% and 20%, the model parameters can be adjusted to reduce the error, and when the error exceeds 20%, the model is considered unusable and the feedback mechanism between variables needs to be re-established. The error calculation formula is:

[0139]

[0140] In the formula, θ represents the error value, X1 represents the predicted value, and X9 represents the actual value.

[0141] This model has been historically verified using data from the three northeastern provinces from 2001 to 2019. The verification found that the simulation accuracy of water resource demand and population was high, with errors within 1%, and the simulation values ​​of GDP and total energy consumption were within 10%. Through the accuracy test, the error between the simulation value and the actual value was within a reasonable range, thus proving that this model is effective.

[0142] Structural verification: Structural verification is used to test the stability of the system by changing the system step size to detect the degree of change of variables when the model is running. This model sets three step sizes of 0.25, 0.5 and 1, selects GDP and population variables for consistency testing, and observes the stability of the model.

[0143] This model was structurally verified using data from the three northeastern provinces from 2001 to 2019. The results showed that the GDP and population change trends of the three northeastern provinces were consistent under the three step-size models, thus proving that the system is stable.

[0144] Sensitivity test: Sensitivity test is to compare the response of the model to the variable by changing the input value of the variable, reflecting the sensitivity of the system variable change. The present invention selects the domestic water demand as the observed variable, ensures that other parameters remain unchanged, and adjusts the population growth rate to analyze the sensitivity change of the domestic water demand.

[0145] Through data verification from the three northeastern provinces, it was found that with the increase in population growth rate, the domestic water demand increased significantly, and the trend of change was consistent with the current development level. This proves that this model can respond to changes in variables in a timely manner and has a certain sensitivity.

[0146] 3. “Water-Energy-Carbon” System Coupling Simulation

[0147] Based on the variables determined by each subsystem and the relationship between the determined subsystems and variables, as well as the simulation results of the subsystem development, the strength of the interaction between the water-energy-carbon system is analyzed by combining the coupling coordination model and the system dynamics model, and the coupling development of the three is predicted. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0148]

[0149] T=aW (w) × (e) ×cC (c) (13)

[0150] In the formula, C represents the coupling degree, C∈[0,1], the smaller the value, the smaller the internal connection of the system; D represents the coupling coordination degree, D∈[0,1]; T represents the system comprehensive evaluation index; W (w) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources system, E (e)Represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the energy system, C (c) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the carbon emission system; a, b, and c represent the undetermined coefficients of the water resources system, energy system, and carbon emission system, respectively, which are the weights of the importance of each subsystem; among them, a is the undetermined coefficient of the water resources system, b is the undetermined coefficient of the energy system, and c is the undetermined coefficient of the carbon emission system.

[0151] The present invention believes that the impact of water, energy and carbon on social development is the same, so let a = b = c = 1 / 3. The coupling coordination degree classification is shown in Table 3 below:

[0152] Table 3 Coupling coordination degree and grade evaluation

[0153]

[0154] In one embodiment, a computer device is provided. The computer device may be a server, and its internal structure diagram may be as follows: Figure 8 As shown. The computer device includes a processor, a memory and a network interface connected through a system bus. Among them, the processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system, a computer program and a database. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The database of the computer device is used to store static information and dynamic information data. The network interface of the computer device is used to communicate with an external terminal through a network connection. When the computer program is executed by the processor, the steps in the above method embodiment are implemented.

[0155] Those skilled in the art will understand that Figure 8 The structure shown in the figure is only a block diagram of a part of the structure related to the solution of the present invention, and does not constitute a limitation on the computer device to which the solution of the present invention is applied. The specific computer device may include more or fewer components than those shown in the figure, or combine certain components, or have a different arrangement of components.

[0156] In addition, the present invention also provides a computer device, including a memory and a processor, wherein a computer program is stored in the memory, and the processor implements the steps in the above method embodiment when executing the computer program.

[0157] In addition, the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps in the above method embodiment are implemented.

[0158] Those skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned embodiment methods can be completed by instructing the relevant hardware through a computer program, and the computer program can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed, it can include the processes of the embodiments of the above-mentioned methods. Among them, any reference to memory, storage, database or other media used in the embodiments provided by the present invention can include at least one of non-volatile and volatile memory. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), magnetic tape, floppy disk, flash memory or optical memory, etc. Volatile memory can include random access memory (RAM) or external cache memory. As an illustration and not limitation, RAM can be in various forms, such as static random access memory (SRAM) or dynamic random access memory (DRAM).

[0159] The present invention is not limited to the structures which have been described above and shown in the drawings, and various modifications and changes may be made without departing from the scope thereof. The scope of the present invention is limited only by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method, characterized in that: include: Determine the evaluation indicators of water resource system, energy system and carbon emission system respectively according to the preset perspectives, and obtain water resource data, energy data and carbon emission data respectively based on the evaluation indicators; Based on system dynamics technology, water resources data, energy data and carbon emission data are combined to simulate the development status of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system; The coupling coordination model and system dynamics model are used to analyze the degree of coordination in the development of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system.

2. The water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Determining evaluation indicators of the water resource system, energy system and carbon emission system respectively according to preset angles, and obtaining water resource data, energy data and carbon emission data respectively based on the evaluation indicators includes: Based on the three perspectives of total volume, structure and sustainability, the evaluation indicators of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system are determined respectively; According to the evaluation indicators, the evaluation index data of water resource system, energy system and carbon emission system are obtained respectively, and the index weight of each evaluation index data is determined by combining the hierarchical analysis method and entropy weight method; Based on the evaluation index system of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system, comprehensive evaluation functions of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system are constructed respectively.

3. The water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The method of combining the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight method to determine the indicator weights of each evaluation indicator data includes: The evaluation index data are divided into positive correlation index and negative correlation index, and normalization processing is performed on the positive correlation evaluation index data and the negative correlation evaluation index data respectively; Based on the normalization processing results, the entropy value of each evaluation index data is calculated, and the corresponding index weight is determined according to the entropy value of each evaluation index data.

4. The water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The normalized calculation formula for the positive correlation index is: The normalized calculation formula for the negative correlation index is: In the formula, y ij represents the normalized value of the i-th sample under the j-th index, x ij represents the original value of the i-th sample under the j-th index, maxx ij 、minx ij They represent the maximum and minimum values ​​of the i-th sample under the j-th index respectively.

5. The water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The calculation formula of entropy value is: and j =-k∑(p ij lnp ij ) k=-ln n In the formula, e j represents the entropy value of the jth indicator, k represents the standardization coefficient, and p ij represents the proportion of the normalized value of the i-th sample under the j-th index, y ij It represents the normalized value of the i-th sample under the j-th indicator, and n represents the total number of evaluation indicators.

6. The water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The calculation formula of indicator weight is: In the formula, w ij represents the combined weight of the i-th sample under the j-th index, w i ′ represents the subjective weight of the i-th sample, w″ i represents the objective weight of the i-th sample.

7. The water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The expression of the comprehensive evaluation function of the water resources system is: The expression of the comprehensive evaluation function of the energy system is: The expression of the comprehensive evaluation function of the carbon emission system is: Where W (w) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources system, w i represents the system weight calculated by summing up the i water resources statistical indicators, x it represents the standardized value of the i-th water resources system evaluation index in year t, n represents the total number of evaluation indicators, E (e) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the energy system, e i represents the system weight calculated by summing up the i energy system indicators, y it represents the standardized value of the i-th energy system evaluation index in year t, C (c) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the carbon emission system, c i represents the system weight calculated by summing up the i carbon emission system indicators, z it It represents the standardized value of the evaluation index of the i-th energy system in year t.

8. The water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The system dynamics technology is used to simulate the development of water resource system, energy system and carbon emission system by combining water resource data, energy data and carbon emission data. The simulation includes: Based on water resources data, energy data and carbon emission data, a causal relationship diagram between water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system is constructed; According to the cause-effect diagram, the relationship between each variable is quantitatively determined, a system dynamics model based on hydro-energy-carbon is constructed, and the effectiveness, stability and sensitivity of the system dynamics model based on hydro-energy-carbon are verified; Among them, variable types include transition variables, speed variables, auxiliary variables and constants.

9. The water, energy and carbon coupling simulation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The use of the coupling coordination model and the system dynamics model to analyze the coordination degree of the development of the water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system includes: Based on the evaluation indicators of each system, the correlation between systems, the correlation between variables and the development simulation results, combined with the coupling coordination model and the system dynamics model based on water, energy and carbon, the strength of the interaction between the water, energy and carbon related systems is analyzed, the coupling development of the water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system is calculated, and the coupling coordination degree is divided into levels; The calculation formula for the coupling development is: T=aW (w) ×bE (e) ×cC (c) In the formula, C represents the coupling degree, D represents the coupling coordination degree, T represents the system comprehensive evaluation index; W (w) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources system, E (e) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the energy system, C (c) represents the comprehensive evaluation index of the carbon emission system, and a, b, and c represent the weights of the water resources system, energy system, and carbon emission system, respectively.

10. A water, energy and carbon coupling simulation system, characterized in that: include: A data acquisition module is used to determine the evaluation indicators of the water resource system, energy system and carbon emission system according to preset angles, and to obtain water resource data, energy data and carbon emission data based on the evaluation indicators; The dynamics simulation module is used to simulate the development of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system based on system dynamics technology and combined with water resources data, energy data and carbon emission data; The coordination degree analysis module is used to analyze the coordination degree of the development of water resources system, energy system and carbon emission system by using the coupled coordination degree model and system dynamics model.

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