Airport surface operation risk comprehensive evaluation method based on probability measure

Abstract

The application discloses an airport surface operation risk comprehensive evaluation method based on a probability measure, and relates to the technical field of airport surface operation risk evaluation.The airport surface operation risk comprehensive evaluation method based on the probability measure analyzes air traffic monitoring data through a Markov model, identifies flight risk factors affecting air traffic safety, quantifies the occurrence probability of the flight risk factors through the probability measure, evaluates an air traffic risk index, analyzes ground traffic data through the probability measure, evaluates a ground traffic risk index, evaluates an airport safety equipment failure risk through a fault tree analysis, obtains a safety equipment failure risk index, and uses an analytic hierarchy process to weight and comprehensively evaluate each risk index to obtain an airport surface operation comprehensive risk index.The method can scientifically and systematically evaluate airport operation safety risks and provide data support for airport safety management and emergency decision-making.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of airport surface operation risk assessment, in particular to a comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement. Background Art

[0002] With the continuous development of the global aviation industry, air transport volume has been climbing year by year, and the operational pressure and security management difficulty of airports have also increased accordingly. Airport surface operations, especially at busy international airports, involve multiple complex links, including flight scheduling, ground transportation, airspace management, etc. Negligence or mistakes in any link may lead to safety accidents, which in turn affect flight punctuality, passenger safety and the overall operational efficiency of the airport. In order to ensure the safety, smoothness and efficiency of airport surface operations, it is particularly important to implement comprehensive and scientific risk management and assessment. Risk assessment methods based on probability measurement can provide airport managers with real-time and accurate risk analysis, help predict potential risks and dangers, and then take targeted prevention and control measures to reduce the probability of accidents and improve the level of airport safety management.

[0003] Currently, airport surface operation risk assessment methods mostly rely on traditional empirical judgment or qualitative analysis, lacking systematic and quantitative risk assessment methods. For example, some methods classify risk levels through risk matrices based on expert evaluations and historical data. While this method can provide some guidance, it often fails to fully consider the complex relationships and mutual influences between multiple risk factors, resulting in inaccurate or overly simplified assessment results. In addition, existing assessment models often neglect the effective use of probability measurement and statistical analysis, are unable to quantify the probability of risk occurrence and the potential losses it may cause, and are unable to provide airport managers with more predictive and decision-making information. Due to the limitations of these methods, airport risk management often appears to be inadequate when dealing with complex operational scenarios, making it difficult to achieve efficient safety assurance. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In view of the shortcomings of the existing technology, the present invention provides a comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risks based on probability measurement, which solves the problems of the above-mentioned background technology.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the application is implemented by the following technical solutions: the airport scene operation risk comprehensive evaluation method based on probability measure includes the following steps: S1. Obtain air traffic monitoring data, build an air traffic risk evaluation model through a Markov model, identify flight risk factors affecting air traffic safety, quantitatively analyze the probability of occurrence of flight risk factors through probability measure, and evaluate the air traffic comprehensive risk index; S2. Obtain airport ground traffic data, quantitatively analyze the risk factors in ground traffic operation through probability measure, and evaluate the ground traffic comprehensive risk index; S3. Obtain airport safety equipment data, build a safety equipment failure risk evaluation model through fault tree analysis, analyze the influence degree of airport safety equipment failure on airport scene operation through probability measure, and evaluate the safety equipment failure risk index; S4. Comprehensive evaluation of the air traffic comprehensive risk index, the ground traffic comprehensive risk index and the safety equipment failure risk index through analytic hierarchy process, obtain the airport scene operation comprehensive risk index, and comprehensive evaluation of the airport scene operation risk based on the airport scene operation comprehensive risk index; the air traffic comprehensive risk index is used to measure the safety risk in air traffic operation, evaluate the collision risk between aircrafts, airspace congestion and flight scheduling safety; the ground traffic comprehensive risk index is used to measure the safety risk of airport ground traffic, evaluate the ground traffic flow, vehicle scheduling, runway use and ground collision risk; the safety equipment failure risk index is used to measure the risk of airport safety equipment failure, and evaluate the influence degree of failure on the safety of airport scene operation; the airport scene operation comprehensive risk index is used to measure the safety risk of the overall operation of the airport, and comprehensive evaluation of the risks of air traffic, ground traffic and equipment failure.

[0006] Further, the specific process of obtaining air traffic monitoring data and building an air traffic risk evaluation model through Markov is as follows: the air traffic monitoring data includes aircraft position, speed, height, heading, flight state, airspace information and weather conditions; define the flight state and build a state transition matrix; calculate the state transition probability through air traffic monitoring historical data, build a Markov chain model, and identify flight risk factors affecting air traffic safety.

[0007] Further, the specific process of quantitatively analyzing the probability of occurrence of flight risk factors through probability measure and evaluating the air traffic comprehensive risk index is as follows: according to the state transition probability of the Markov chain model, calculate the occurrence probability under each flight state; determine the flight risk factors of air traffic safety, including the minimum safe distance between aircrafts, the speed difference between aircrafts and the airspace congestion degree; statistically analyze the occurrence probability of each risk factor, and quantitatively analyze the risk level of each risk factor through probability measure; according to the probability of each risk factor and its influence on air traffic safety, comprehensive evaluate the air traffic comprehensive risk index.

[0008] Furthermore, the specific process of obtaining airport ground traffic data and conducting a quantitative analysis of risk factors in ground traffic operations through probability measurement is as follows: the airport ground traffic data includes ground traffic flow data and runway and taxiway occupancy data; determining risk factors in ground traffic operations, including ground traffic flow density and runway and taxiway occupancy conflicts; and conducting a probability measurement analysis on each risk factor to quantify the probability of occurrence.

[0009] Furthermore, the specific process of evaluating the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation is as follows: quantify the risk factors of ground transportation and determine the weight of each risk factor; comprehensively evaluate the risk level of ground transportation based on the weight and probability, and evaluate the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation.

[0010] Furthermore, the specific process of obtaining airport safety equipment data and constructing a safety equipment failure risk assessment model through fault tree analysis is as follows: the airport safety equipment data includes runway lighting system safety data, navigation facility safety data, and radar equipment safety data; determining the failure mode of each device, constructing a hierarchical structure of equipment failures through the fault tree analysis method, performing a probability assessment on each basic event in the fault tree, and calculating the probability of occurrence of events at each level; combining the equipment failure mode and occurrence probability, and comprehensively evaluating the impact of equipment failures on airport surface operations through the fault tree analysis method.

[0011] Furthermore, the impact of airport safety equipment failures on airport surface operations is analyzed through probability measurement. The specific process of evaluating the safety equipment failure risk index is as follows: based on the fault tree analysis model, the probability of occurrence of each safety equipment failure mode is calculated; the impact factors of equipment failures on surface operations are defined, the risk level of each failure mode is quantified, and the equipment failure risk index is calculated by combining the probability of occurrence and the impact factors of each failure; and the safety equipment failure risk index is obtained by combining the failure risk indices of each equipment.

[0012] Furthermore, a hierarchical analysis is used to comprehensively evaluate the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and the risk index of safety equipment failure. The specific process of obtaining the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations is as follows: a hierarchical analysis structure model is constructed based on the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and the risk index of safety equipment failure; the hierarchical analysis method is used to assign weights to each risk index, and the weighted sum of each risk index is performed according to the assigned weights to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations.

[0013] Furthermore, the specific process of comprehensively evaluating the risks of airport surface operations based on the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations is as follows: according to the threshold of the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations, the risk level is defined; based on the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations, the risk level is compared with the preset risk level to determine the overall safety risk level of airport surface operations.

[0014] The present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0015] (1) This comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement acquires air traffic monitoring data and constructs an air traffic risk assessment model in combination with the Markov model. It can identify and quantify flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety, and accurately analyze the probability of occurrence of risk factors through probability measurement, ultimately evaluating the comprehensive air traffic risk index. In addition, the method also acquires ground traffic data and conducts a quantitative analysis of risk factors to evaluate the comprehensive ground traffic risk index, effectively improving the comprehensive risk assessment capabilities of air-ground traffic.

[0016] (2) This comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement uses the fault tree analysis method to construct a safety equipment failure risk assessment model, analyzes the impact of safety equipment failure on airport surface operations through probability measurement, and further evaluates the safety equipment failure risk index. Finally, the air traffic comprehensive risk index, ground traffic comprehensive risk index, and safety equipment failure risk index are comprehensively evaluated through the hierarchical analysis method to obtain the airport surface operation comprehensive risk index. Based on this comprehensive risk index, a global assessment of airport surface operation risks is conducted to provide scientific decision support and ensure the safety and efficiency of airport operations.

[0017] Of course, any product implementing the present invention does not necessarily need to achieve all of the advantages described above at the same time. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0018] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risks based on probability measurement of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0019] This embodiment of the application addresses the inability of traditional risk assessment methods to comprehensively and accurately identify and quantify multi-dimensional risk factors through a comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operations based on probability measurement. By combining Markov chains, fault tree analysis, and the analytic hierarchy process, it comprehensively assesses the risks of air traffic, ground transportation, and safety equipment failures. This method can scientifically quantify the probability of each risk, optimize risk management decisions, improve the safety of airport surface operations, and ensure the stability and reliability of airport operations.

[0020] The overall idea of ​​the solution in the embodiments of this application is as follows:

[0021] Acquire air traffic monitoring data, construct an air traffic risk assessment model through the Markov model, identify flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety, quantify the probability of occurrence of flight risk factors through probability measurement, and evaluate the comprehensive air traffic risk index.

[0022] Obtain airport ground traffic data, conduct quantitative analysis of risk factors in ground traffic operations through probability measurement, and evaluate the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic.

[0023] By acquiring airport safety equipment data and constructing a safety equipment failure risk assessment model through fault tree analysis, the impact of airport safety equipment failure on airport surface operations is analyzed through probability measurement, and the safety equipment failure risk index is evaluated.

[0024] Through hierarchical analysis, a comprehensive evaluation is conducted on the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and risk index of safety equipment failure to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations. Based on the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations, a comprehensive assessment of airport surface operations risks is conducted.

[0025] See also Figure 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides a technical solution: a comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement, comprising the following steps: S1. Acquire air traffic monitoring data, construct an air traffic risk assessment model through a Markov model, identify flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety, quantitatively analyze the probability of occurrence of flight risk factors through probability measurement, and evaluate the comprehensive air traffic risk index; S2. Acquire airport ground traffic data, quantitatively analyze the risk factors in ground traffic operation through probability measurement, and evaluate the comprehensive ground traffic risk index; S3. Acquire airport safety equipment data, construct a safety equipment failure risk assessment model through fault tree analysis, analyze the degree of impact of airport safety equipment failure on airport surface operation through probability measurement, and evaluate the safety equipment failure risk index; S4. Analyze the air traffic through hierarchical analysis A comprehensive evaluation is conducted on the comprehensive risk index, the comprehensive ground traffic risk index and the safety equipment failure risk index to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations, and a comprehensive assessment of the airport surface operation risks is conducted based on the comprehensive airport surface operation risk index; the comprehensive air traffic risk index is used to measure the safety risks in air traffic operations, and assess the collision risks between aircraft, airspace congestion and flight scheduling safety; the comprehensive ground traffic risk index is used to measure the safety risks of airport ground traffic, and assess the risks of ground traffic flow, vehicle scheduling, runway use and ground collision; the safety equipment failure risk index is used to measure the risk of airport safety equipment failure, and assess the degree of impact of the failure on the safety of airport surface operations; the comprehensive airport surface operation risk index is used to measure the safety risks of the overall airport operation, and comprehensively assess the risks of air traffic, ground traffic and equipment failure.

[0026] In this embodiment, S1. Obtain air traffic monitoring data: Obtain aircraft position, speed, altitude, heading, etc. data from air traffic monitoring system, as well as airspace information and weather conditions. These data will provide the basis for building risk assessment model. Build model: Use Markov model to establish model by defining different flight states and state transition probabilities. Markov model can capture the transition between different states in air traffic and its probability of occurrence, and identify key flight risk factors (such as aircraft distance, speed difference, etc.). Quantitative analysis: Based on probability measure, the probability of occurrence of each flight risk factor (such as collision risk, airspace congestion, etc.) is quantitatively analyzed, and finally the comprehensive risk index of air traffic is obtained, which is used to measure the safety risk in air traffic operation. S2. Obtain ground traffic data: Collect airport ground traffic data, including ground vehicle operation status, runway usage, traffic flow, etc. Quantitative analysis: Through probability measure, the possible risk factors in ground traffic (such as ground collision risk, vehicle scheduling, etc.) are quantitatively evaluated, and the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic is calculated, which is used to measure the safety risk of ground traffic. S3. Obtain safety equipment data: Obtain data about airport safety equipment, such as runway lighting system, navigation facilities, radar equipment, etc. Fault tree analysis: Use fault tree analysis (FTA) method to identify equipment failure modes and analyze the root causes of equipment failure. Through probability measure, the probability of occurrence of each equipment failure mode is evaluated, and then the safety equipment failure risk index is calculated. Impact analysis: Based on the probability of failure, analyze the potential impact of equipment failure on airport operation, and obtain the risk impact degree of equipment failure on airport surface operation. S4. Build AHP structure model: According to the risk indexes of air traffic, ground traffic and safety equipment failure, build AHP structure model. Each risk index corresponds to a level, and the weight is allocated according to its importance. Weighted sum: Calculate the weight of each risk index by AHP method, and perform weighted sum to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation, which reflects the overall risk of air traffic, ground traffic and safety equipment failure. Comprehensive evaluation: Through comprehensive risk index, evaluate the overall operation risk of airport, and provide scientific decision support for airport managers. Markov model: Used to analyze and predict the transition between different states of a system and its probability of occurrence, especially suitable for risk assessment of dynamic systems such as air traffic. By building transition matrix based on historical data and current state, the risk of flight state can be quantified. Probability measure: A method in statistical analysis for quantifying the probability of occurrence of uncertain events. Through probability measure, the probability of occurrence of risk factors can be clearly measured and their impact on the system can be comprehensively evaluated.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA): A systematic analysis method used to identify the root causes of equipment failures. By constructing a fault tree model, the cause-effect relationships of equipment failures are hierarchically organized, thereby assessing the probability of each event and ultimately calculating the risk of equipment failure. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP): A multi-criteria decision analysis method that constructs a hierarchical structure, compares the importance of each risk factor, assigns weights, and ultimately obtains a comprehensive evaluation index (risk index) through weighted average.

[0027] Specifically, the specific process of obtaining air traffic monitoring data and constructing an air traffic risk assessment model through Markov is as follows: air traffic monitoring data includes aircraft position, speed, altitude, heading, flight status, airspace information, and meteorological conditions; defining the flight status and constructing a state transition matrix; calculating the state transition probability through historical air traffic monitoring data, constructing a Markov chain model, and identifying flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety.

[0028] In this implementation plan, air traffic monitoring data is obtained: including aircraft position, speed, altitude, heading, flight status, airspace information, meteorological conditions, etc., to evaluate the operating status of air traffic. Define flight status and construct a state transition matrix: define different flight states including takeoff, cruising, and landing, and construct a state transition matrix to describe the probability of transitioning from one state to another. Calculate state transition probabilities through historical air traffic monitoring data: analyze historical data, calculate the probability of aircraft transitioning between different states, and establish a statistical model for state transitions. Construct a Markov chain model: use the Markov chain model to represent the transition process between aircraft states, predict possible future flight states, and evaluate corresponding safety risks. Identify flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety: Based on the Markov model, identify and quantify risk factors in the flight process, such as the minimum distance between aircraft, speed differences, airspace congestion, and meteorological conditions, which affect the safety of air traffic.

[0029] Specifically, the probability of occurrence of flight risk factors is quantitatively analyzed through probability measurement, and the specific process of evaluating the comprehensive air traffic risk index is as follows: based on the state transition probability of the Markov chain model, the occurrence probability under each flight state is calculated; the flight risk factors for air traffic safety are determined, including the minimum safe distance between aircraft, the speed difference between aircraft, and the degree of airspace congestion; the probability of occurrence of each risk factor is statistically analyzed, and the risk level of each risk factor is quantified through probability measurement; based on the probability of each risk factor and its impact on air traffic safety, the comprehensive air traffic risk index is comprehensively evaluated.

[0030] In this implementation, the probability of occurrence of each flight state is calculated based on the Markov chain model. In the Markov model, the flight state transition process is represented by the state transition matrix. The probability of occurrence of each state is calculated based on historical data, denoted as p i , that is, the probability that the aircraft is in state i. Formula: p i = p i : The probability of flight state i occurring, which indicates the frequency of the aircraft in state i within the time range T. t represents the time point, t∈{1,2,…,T}. T: The number of data points in the historical data. 1 {Xt -i}: indicator function, if at time point t, the flight state X t If it is equal to state i, the value is 1; otherwise, it is 0. t : The state of the aircraft at time point t, X t ∈{1,2,…,N}, where N is the total number of flight states. In this scheme, the flight risk factor of air traffic safety mainly includes the minimum safe distance between aircraft: it is usually required that aircraft maintain a certain safe distance to prevent collision. Assume that the minimum safe distance is d min Aircraft speed difference: Aircraft with large speed difference may cause flight path conflicts. Let the speed difference be Δv. Airspace congestion: Airspace congestion may cause flight delays or conflicts. The airspace congestion level is represented by C. airspace The value range is [0,1], where 0 means no congestion and 1 means maximum congestion. The probability of each flight risk factor is estimated through historical data or real-time monitoring data. j (j∈{1,2,3}, corresponding to the minimum safe distance, speed difference, and airspace congestion, respectively), we can use the probability density function f j (x) Model it and get the probability of occurrence of risk factors. Formula: p j : The probability of risk factor j (minimum safe distance, speed difference or airspace congestion) occurring. It means that the risk factor j is greater than or equal to a certain threshold a j j: represents the number of the risk factor. j = 1 represents the minimum safe distance, j = 2 represents the speed difference, and j = 3 represents airspace congestion. j (x): Probability density function of risk factor j, which represents the probability density a at a certain value x j : The threshold of risk factor j, indicating that when the factor exceeds this value, it is considered a risk event. For example, for the minimum safety distance, a1 may be the specified minimum aircraft spacing; for airspace congestion, a3 may be the set maximum airspace load x: The continuous value of the risk factor. By calculating the probability of occurrence of each risk factor p jBy conducting quantitative analysis, we can get the contribution of each factor to air traffic safety. We can measure the risk of each factor as the product of its probability and the corresponding risk weight. The risk measurement formula of risk factor is: R j =w j ·p j ; R j : Risk factor j's risk measure for air traffic safety. It represents the contribution of factor j to the overall risk. j : The weight of risk factor j, which indicates the relative importance of the risk factor to air traffic safety. The weight value is usually set based on historical data to ensure that important risk factors are given higher weights. j : The probability of occurrence of risk factor j, as calculated above. The air traffic comprehensive risk index is calculated by weighted comprehensive calculation based on the probability and risk measurement of each flight risk factor. The calculation formula is: R total : Comprehensive air traffic risk index, representing the safety risk of the entire air traffic system. It is obtained by weighted summation of the risk measures of each risk factor. j: Risk factor number. j = 1 corresponds to the minimum safe distance, j = 2 corresponds to the speed difference, and j = 3 corresponds to airspace congestion. w j : The weight of risk factor j. p j : probability of occurrence of risk factor j; It represents the weighted sum of all three risk factors, which comprehensively calculates the overall safety risk of air traffic.

[0031] Specifically, the specific process of obtaining airport ground traffic data and conducting a quantitative analysis of risk factors in ground traffic operations through probability measurement is as follows: Airport ground traffic data includes ground traffic flow data and runway and taxiway occupancy data; determining risk factors in ground traffic operations, including ground traffic flow density and runway and taxiway occupancy conflicts; and conducting a probability measurement analysis on each risk factor to quantify the probability of occurrence.

[0032] In this embodiment, the step of obtaining airport ground traffic data includes collecting the following two types of data:

[0033] Ground traffic flow data: This includes data on airport ground traffic density and vehicle flow. This data can be collected through sensors, surveillance cameras, or other real-time data collection devices, reflecting the overall status of ground traffic. Runway and taxiway occupancy data: This data primarily includes the real-time occupancy status of runways and taxiways, such as which flights are taxiing and which flights have already occupied the runway. This information can be obtained through monitoring systems or ground command and dispatch systems. Several key risk factors can impact safe operations within the ground transportation system, including: Ground traffic density: This risk factor reflects the level of airport ground traffic. Excessive traffic density can lead to traffic congestion, vehicle interference, and even increased collision risk. Runway and taxiway occupancy conflicts: This refers to situations where runway and taxiway occupancy conflicts may occur. For example, flights on a taxiway may conflict with an active runway, potentially leading to flight delays or other safety risks. These two risk factors are critical factors in ground transportation, directly impacting the smooth and safe operation of ground transportation. The goal of probability measurement analysis is to quantify the probability of occurrence of each risk factor, thereby assessing its impact on ground transportation safety. Specific steps include: Ground transportation flow density risk assessment: Based on actual traffic flow data, safety risks at different flow densities are assessed. For example, certain periods of high flow density may lead to traffic congestion or close-proximity maneuvers between vehicles, posing a higher risk of flow density. Runway and taxiway occupancy conflict risk assessment: Analyze runway and taxiway occupancy to identify the times and circumstances under which occupancy conflicts may occur. By analyzing historical data, the probability of each scenario can be assessed and the risk of conflicts further quantified. These two steps, using probability measurement methods (statistical analysis, probability distribution functions), quantify the probability of occurrence of risk factors in the ground transportation system, providing the necessary basis for ground transportation risk assessment. During the quantification process, the probability of occurrence of each risk factor is assessed by analyzing the collected data, and the results are expressed as a numerical value. For example, the probability of occurrence of ground transportation flow density or occupancy conflicts can be derived using historical data statistics and probability distribution models. These probabilities can help further understand the frequency of potential risks and support risk assessment and decision-making.

[0034] Specifically, the specific process of evaluating the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation is as follows: quantify the risk factors of ground transportation and determine the weight of each risk factor; based on the weight and probability, comprehensively evaluate the risk level of ground transportation and evaluate the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation.

[0035] In this implementation plan, it is necessary to quantify each key risk factor in the ground transportation system. These factors may include ground traffic flow density: reflecting the busyness of ground traffic. Quantitative analysis can be performed through the number of vehicles and flow density. Runway and taxiway occupancy conflict: evaluate the probability of runway and taxiway occupancy conflict under different circumstances, such as whether there are multiple flights occupying the same runway or taxiway at the same time. For each risk factor, first calculate the probability of occurrence of the risk factor by collecting historical data or real-time monitoring data, and quantify it using the probability measurement method. After quantifying the risk factors, it is necessary to assign weights to each factor to determine their relative importance in the overall risk assessment. This can be determined by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Weight of ground traffic flow density: This factor directly affects the probability of traffic accidents, so it is given a higher weight. Weight of runway and taxiway occupancy conflict: This factor involves safety and may have a great impact on the risk assessment of ground transportation, so its weight is also higher. The weight of each risk factor is determined by a certain method as w1, w2,..., w m , where m is the number of risk factors, and each weight value satisfies: w1+w2+…+w m =1; according to the probability of occurrence of each risk factor P1, P2, ..., P m and their corresponding weights w1,w2,...,w m , calculate the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation. Comprehensive risk index R gt It is the result of weighted summation of all risk factors. The calculation formula is as follows: gt =w1·P1+w2·P2+…+w m ·P m ; Among them: R gt is the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation; w m is the weight of the mth risk factor, P m is the probability of the nth risk factor occurring.

[0036] Specifically, the specific process of obtaining airport safety equipment data and constructing a safety equipment failure risk assessment model through fault tree analysis is as follows: Airport safety equipment data includes runway lighting system safety data, navigation facility safety data, and radar equipment safety data; Determine the failure mode of each device, construct a hierarchical structure of equipment failures through the fault tree analysis method, conduct a probability assessment of each basic event in the fault tree, and calculate the probability of occurrence of events at each level; Combine the equipment failure mode and occurrence probability, and use the fault tree analysis method to comprehensively assess the impact of equipment failures on airport surface operations.

[0037] In this implementation, data from airport safety equipment is collected, including runway lighting system safety data: including the operating status, fault history, and maintenance records of runway lights. Navigation facility safety data: including the status, fault history, and maintenance status of airport navigation facilities (radio navigation, automated ground systems). Radar equipment safety data: including the operating status, fault history, and performance indicators of radar equipment. This data provides foundational information for subsequent analysis, used to assess the equipment's operating status and failure risk. By analyzing the equipment's design, usage, and historical failure data, the potential failure modes of each device are determined. Each device may have multiple failure modes. For example, runway lighting system failure modes include bulb burnout, power supply issues, and control system failure. Navigation facility failure modes include signal interference, equipment malfunction, and frequency scheduling errors. Radar equipment failure modes include radar signal loss, signal processing errors, and hardware failures. The failure modes of each device can be defined in detail based on the device type, usage environment, and historical failure data, generating various scenarios for device failure. A hierarchical structure of device failures is constructed using the fault tree analysis method. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a commonly used systematic failure analysis method used to identify and analyze potential failures in devices or systems. Through FTA, a hierarchical structure of equipment failures is constructed. The specific steps are as follows: Top Event: First, the top event of the fault tree is determined, which is the final outcome of the system failure. For example, a runway lighting system failure may result in the top event "runway lighting system failure." Intermediate Events: These are the various intermediate events that may occur under the top event. For example, possible causes of a runway lighting failure could include "power outage" or "bulb failure." Base Events: Each intermediate event is further broken down into base events, which are the simplest atomic events in the system. For example, "power outage" could be caused by "circuit board failure" or "power switch failure." This hierarchical structure allows for comprehensive and systematic identification of various possible causes of equipment failures and analysis of their impact layer by layer. A probability assessment is performed for each base event in the fault tree. Using statistical data, historical failure records, and expert estimates, each base event is assigned a probability of occurrence. For example, the probability of a bulb failure can be estimated by analyzing historical equipment failure records. The probability of a power outage can be assessed based on data such as the equipment's operating age and maintenance frequency. These probability assessments provide a quantitative basis for subsequent risk analysis, enabling the calculation of system failure risks through mathematical models. Based on the probabilities of events at each level of the fault tree and their underlying events, appropriate calculation methods (such as "AND" and "OR" rules) are used to calculate the probability of each level's occurrence. For example, "AND" calculations: If an intermediate event is caused by multiple underlying events, and all underlying events must occur simultaneously to cause the intermediate event, the "AND" rule is used for calculation. The resulting probability is the product of the probabilities of each underlying event.OR Gate Calculation: If an intermediate event is caused by multiple elementary events, and the occurrence of just one elementary event is sufficient to cause the intermediate event to occur, the OR gate rule is used for calculation. Its probability is the union of the probabilities of each elementary event. Through these calculations, the probability of each event at each level can be determined, and then deduced upwards, ultimately yielding the probability of the top event.

[0038] Specifically, the impact of airport safety equipment failures on airport surface operations is analyzed through probability measurement, and the specific process of evaluating the safety equipment failure risk index is as follows: based on the fault tree analysis model, the probability of occurrence of each safety equipment failure mode is calculated; the impact factors of equipment failures on surface operations are defined, the risk level of each failure mode is quantified, and the equipment failure risk index is calculated by combining the probability of occurrence and the impact factors of each failure; and the safety equipment failure risk index is obtained by combining the failure risk indices of each equipment.

[0039] In this implementation, the process uses a fault tree analysis model to calculate the probability of failure modes for each airport safety device. This process then assesses the failure risk index for each device, taking into account the impact of device failures on airport operations. Finally, the failure risk index for each device is combined to derive the safety equipment failure risk index for the entire airport. Formula: is the failure risk index of the a-th device, and the formula is as follows: in: is the failure risk index of the ath device; P ba is the probability of occurrence of the bth failure mode of the ath device; I ba is the impact factor of the bth failure mode of the ath equipment on airport surface operations; n a is the total number of failure modes of the ath device. By comprehensively calculating the probability of occurrence and influencing factors of each device failure mode, the failure risk index of each device can be obtained. Calculation of comprehensive equipment failure risk index: Further, in order to obtain the safety equipment failure risk index of the entire airport, the failure risk index of all devices can be weighted and summed. The safety equipment failure risk index formula is, Where: R q : Safety equipment failure risk index, w a The weight of the ath device reflects the relative importance of the device to airport safety; is the failure risk index of the ath device; C is the total number of devices.

[0040] Specifically, the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and safety equipment failure risk index are comprehensively evaluated through hierarchical analysis. The specific process of obtaining the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation is as follows: according to the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and safety equipment failure risk index, a hierarchical analysis structure model is constructed; the weight of each risk index is assigned using the hierarchical analysis method, and the weighted sum of each risk index is performed according to the assigned weights to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation.

[0041] In this implementation plan, the process uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to comprehensively evaluate the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic, and the risk index of safety equipment failure, and finally calculates the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations. First, a hierarchical analysis model is constructed to determine the weights of each risk index; then, based on these weights, the weighted sum of each risk index is performed to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations. Formula: R DF is the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations, and the formula is as follows: Where: R DF is the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations; R k is the kth risk index, including the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, the comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and the risk index of safety equipment failure; w k is the weight of the kth risk index, indicating the relative importance of the risk index to the comprehensive risk of airport surface operations. The values ​​of k are 1 (air traffic), 2 (ground traffic), and 3 (safety equipment failure). k : represents the kth individual risk index (air traffic risk index, ground traffic risk index or safety equipment failure risk index). Each R k It is calculated separately, and the calculation method has been introduced above. k : The weight of each risk index reflects the importance of the risk in airport surface operations. It is usually determined by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), based on expert judgment and data analysis. Weighted sum: According to the weight of each risk index w k ,Each risk index is weighted to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations.

[0042] Specifically, the specific process of comprehensive assessment of airport surface operation risks based on the airport surface operation comprehensive risk index is as follows: based on the threshold of the airport surface operation comprehensive risk index, the risk level is defined; based on the airport surface operation comprehensive risk index, the risk level is compared with the preset risk level to determine the overall safety risk level of the airport surface operation.

[0043] In this embodiment, the risk level threshold is determined: according to the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation, a series of thresholds are set to divide it into different risk levels. Low risk, medium risk and high risk levels are set, each level corresponds to a different risk index range. According to the calculated comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation, it is compared with the preset risk level. The overall safety risk level of airport surface operation is determined. Risk level division: risk level division is set according to actual operation data and historical safety events, through comparison of historical cases and expert experience, specific threshold of risk index is set. These thresholds intuitively evaluate the safety state of the airport. The current safety risk level of the airport surface can be quickly judged. This evaluation method enables airport managers to clearly understand the size of the safety risk and take appropriate safety measures.

[0044] In summary, the present application has at least the following effects:

[0045] The airport surface operation risk comprehensive evaluation method based on probability measure can comprehensively and accurately evaluate the potential risks in airport surface operation by combining the comprehensive evaluation of air traffic, ground traffic and safety equipment failure, and timely discover safety hazards, thereby effectively improving the safety of airport operation. By probability measurement and hierarchical analysis of various risk factors, the occurrence probability and influence of various risks can be quantified, providing scientific and objective decision support for airport management, which helps to optimize risk management strategy and reduce the probability of accidents. According to the risk level division of the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operation, the evaluation standard can be dynamically adjusted and the change of operation environment can be reflected in real time, so that the airport can quickly respond to various emergencies and ensure the continuity and safety of operation. It is suitable for various airport environments and can be adjusted and optimized according to the specific conditions of different airports, and meets the risk evaluation needs of airport surface operation of various scales and types.

[0046] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that embodiments of the application can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application can take the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Moreover, the present application can take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer usable storage media (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer usable program code.

[0047] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of systems, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowcharts and / or block diagrams, as well as combinations of processes and / or blocks in the flowcharts and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowcharts and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0048] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to work in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0049] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operational steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing the instructions executed on the computer or other programmable device for implementing the process. Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A step that specifies a function in one or more boxes.

[0050] Although the preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described, those skilled in the art may make additional changes and modifications to these embodiments once they have learned the basic creative concept. Therefore, the appended claims are intended to be interpreted as including the preferred embodiments and all changes and modifications that fall within the scope of the present invention.

[0051] Obviously, those skilled in the art may make various changes and modifications to the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Thus, if such changes and modifications fall within the scope of the claims and their equivalents, the present invention is intended to include such changes and modifications.

Claims

1. A comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement is characterized by: The following steps are involved: S1. Obtain air traffic monitoring data, construct an air traffic risk assessment model using the Markov model, identify flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety, quantify the probability of occurrence of flight risk factors using probability measurement, and evaluate the comprehensive air traffic risk index; S2. Obtain airport ground transportation data, conduct quantitative analysis of risk factors in ground transportation operations through probability measurement, and assess the comprehensive ground transportation risk index; S3. Obtain airport safety equipment data, construct a safety equipment failure risk assessment model through fault tree analysis, analyze the impact of airport safety equipment failures on airport surface operations through probability measurement, and assess the safety equipment failure risk index; S4. Conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the air traffic comprehensive risk index, ground traffic comprehensive risk index, and safety equipment failure risk index through a hierarchical analysis to obtain the airport surface operations comprehensive risk index. Based on this comprehensive airport surface operations risk index, conduct a comprehensive assessment of airport surface operations risks. The comprehensive air traffic risk index is used to measure safety risks in air traffic operations and assess collision risks between aircraft, airspace congestion, and flight scheduling safety. The ground transportation comprehensive risk index is used to measure the safety risk of airport ground transportation and assess ground transportation flow, vehicle scheduling, runway use and ground collision risk; The safety equipment failure risk index is used to measure the risk of airport safety equipment failure and assess the impact of failure on airport surface operation safety. The airport surface operations comprehensive risk index is used to measure the safety risk of the airport's overall operations and comprehensively assess the risks of air traffic, ground traffic and equipment failures; The specific process of obtaining air traffic monitoring data and building an air traffic risk assessment model through Markov is as follows: The air traffic monitoring data includes aircraft position, speed, altitude, heading, flight status, airspace information, and weather conditions; Define flight state and construct state transfer matrix; Calculate state transition probabilities through historical air traffic monitoring data, build a Markov chain model, and identify flight risk factors that affect air traffic safety; The specific process of quantitatively analyzing the probability of occurrence of flight risk factors through probability measurement and evaluating the comprehensive air traffic risk index is as follows: According to the state transition probability of the Markov chain model, the occurrence probability of each flight state is calculated; Determine flight risk factors for air traffic safety, including minimum safe distances between aircraft, speed differences between aircraft, and airspace congestion levels; Conduct statistical analysis on the probability of occurrence of each risk factor and quantify the risk level of each risk factor through probability measurement; Comprehensively evaluate the air traffic risk index based on the probability of each risk factor and its impact on air traffic safety; The specific process of obtaining airport ground traffic data and conducting quantitative analysis of risk factors in ground traffic operations through probability measurement is as follows: The airport ground traffic data includes ground traffic flow data, runway and taxiway occupancy data; Identify risk factors in ground traffic operations, including ground traffic density and runway and taxiway occupancy conflicts; Conduct probability measurement analysis on each risk factor to quantify the probability of occurrence; The specific process of evaluating the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation is as follows: Quantify ground transportation risk factors and determine the weight of each risk factor; Based on the weight and probability, comprehensively evaluate the risk level of ground transportation and evaluate the comprehensive risk index of ground transportation; The specific process of obtaining airport safety equipment data and constructing a safety equipment failure risk assessment model through fault tree analysis is as follows: The airport safety equipment data includes runway lighting system safety data, navigation facility safety data, and radar equipment safety data; Determine the failure mode of each device, construct a hierarchical structure of equipment failures through the fault tree analysis method, conduct probability assessment on each basic event in the fault tree, and calculate the probability of occurrence of each level of event; Combined with the equipment failure modes and occurrence probabilities, the fault tree analysis method is used to comprehensively evaluate the impact of equipment failures on airport surface operations.

2. The comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement according to claim 1 is characterized by: The specific process of analyzing the impact of airport safety equipment failure on airport surface operations through probability measurement and evaluating the safety equipment failure risk index is as follows: Calculate the probability of occurrence of each safety device failure mode based on the fault tree analysis model; Define the impact factors of equipment failure on field operations, quantify the risk level of each failure mode, and calculate the equipment failure risk index by combining the probability of each failure and the impact factor; The safety equipment failure risk index is derived by combining the failure risk index of each device.

3. The comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement according to claim 2 is characterized by: The specific process of comprehensively evaluating the air traffic comprehensive risk index, ground traffic comprehensive risk index, and safety equipment failure risk index through hierarchical analysis to obtain the airport surface operation comprehensive risk index is as follows: Based on the comprehensive risk index of air traffic, comprehensive risk index of ground traffic and risk index of safety equipment failure, a hierarchical analysis structure model was constructed; The analytic hierarchy process is used to assign weights to each risk index, and the weighted sum of each risk index is taken according to the assigned weights to obtain the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations.

4. The comprehensive evaluation method for airport surface operation risk based on probability measurement according to claim 3 is characterized by: The specific process of comprehensive assessment of airport surface operation risk based on the airport surface operation comprehensive risk index is as follows: Determine the risk level based on the threshold of the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations; Based on the comprehensive risk index of airport surface operations, it is compared with the preset risk level to determine the overall safety risk level of airport surface operations.

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