A method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of UAV

Abstract

The present invention relates to a method for calculating the probability of casualties on island reefs under the impact load of drones, comprising the following steps: dividing a target island reef into unsheltered and sheltered areas, and calculating the distribution of personnel within each grid in each area; simulating and calculating the corresponding kill distances for different kill probabilities under different explosive charges when a single drone attacks the unsheltered area; simulating and calculating the corresponding kill distances for different height layers of shelter under different explosive charges when a single drone attacks the sheltered area; calculating the probability of casualties for each grid in each area under the impact load of drones; and determining the probability of casualties for the entire target island reef under the impact load of drones. The present invention can rapidly calculate the probability of casualties when multiple batches of drone explosions are applied to multiple locations on an island reef, providing a useful reference for assessing the resilience of island reefs, reducing the casualty rate of island reef personnel, and constructing shelters.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of structural impact explosion, and in particular to a method for obtaining the probability of personnel being killed on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone. Background Art

[0002] In recent years, drones have been widely used to launch surprise attacks on localized areas or structures, often loaded with explosives, causing significant damage to people and structures within their reach. As a crucial component of maritime territorial defense, the security of islands and reefs is of paramount importance.

[0003] In the past, calculations of casualties were often limited to the effects of a single attack by a single weapon in a local area. Statistical calculations of the attack situation in a global area were rare. The effects of the attack were also often limited to theoretical parameters such as the size of the shock wave, and were rarely linked to actual casualty figures. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In view of the deficiencies of the existing technology, the main purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of drones, so as to provide a rapid method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under multiple consecutive drone attacks.

[0005] The technical solutions of the present invention are as follows:

[0006] The present invention proposes a method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone, comprising the following steps:

[0007] Divide the target islands and reefs into areas with and without shelter for human activity, and divide each area into grids;

[0008] Count the distribution of people in each grid in each area at different time periods and determine the probability of people distribution;

[0009] Simulate the calculation of the killing distance corresponding to different killing probabilities under different explosive amounts when a drone attacks an unsheltered area, and draw the corresponding fitting curve Figure 1 ;

[0010] Simulate and calculate the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives when a drone attacks a sheltered area, and draw the corresponding fitting curve Figure 2 ;

[0011] Based on the fitting curve Figure 1 , fitting curve Figure 2 Calculate the probability of casualties for each grid in each area of the target islands and reefs under multiple batches of drone attacks;

[0012] Determine the probability of personnel casualties on the target island or reef as a whole under the impact load of the drone.

[0013] In some embodiments, gridding each region includes:

[0014] Establishing a three-dimensional rectangular coordinate system for the target islands and reefs;

[0015] Each area is divided into 3D grids of different coarseness and density based on at least one of building conditions, regional terrain, and population density.

[0016] In some embodiments, the personnel distribution probability is:

[0017] =

[0018] Where x represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system along the horizontal direction, that is, the distance along the x-axis; y represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system along the vertical direction, that is, the distance along the y-axis; and z represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system along the height direction, that is, the distance along the z-axis.

[0019] In some embodiments, the simulation calculates the killing distance corresponding to different killing probabilities under different amounts of explosives when a drone attacks an unsheltered area where people are active, and draws the corresponding fitting curve Figure 1 Specifically include:

[0020] Simulate and calculate the shock wave overpressure at different distances under different explosive quantities;

[0021] Based on the analysis of the damage caused by the shock wave overpressure to the human body, the probability of personnel casualties is assessed based on the damage to the human body;

[0022] Determine the killing distance corresponding to different amounts of explosives based on the probability of killing different personnel;

[0023] Based on the multiple data of the killing distance under different explosive quantities and the probability of killing different personnel, a fitting curve of the killing probability of personnel at different killing distances under different explosive quantities is drawn. Figure 1 .

[0024] In some embodiments, the simulation calculates the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives when the drone attacks a sheltered area, and draws the corresponding fitting curve Figure 2 Specifically include:

[0025] Simulate and calculate the shock wave overpressure at different height levels of the corresponding shelter under different explosive quantities;

[0026] Based on the analysis of the damage caused by the shock wave overpressure to the human body, the probability of personnel casualties is assessed based on the damage to the human body;

[0027] Based on the different probability of killing people, the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter with different explosive amounts is determined;

[0028] Based on the data of different killing probabilities corresponding to different heights of the shelter under different amounts of explosives, the killing distance is determined, and the fitting curves of the killing probability of personnel at different killing distances corresponding to different heights of the shelter under different amounts of explosives are drawn. Figure 2 .

[0029] In some embodiments, calculating the probability of personnel casualties for each grid in each area of the target island or reef under multiple batches of drone attacks specifically includes:

[0030] Determine the multiple target locations for drones to attack the target islands and reefs in successive batches and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target location;

[0031] Based on the fitting curve Figure 1 Determine the kill probability for each grid in the uncovered personnel activity area under one, two, ..., multiple drone attacks;

[0032] Based on the fitting curve Figure 2 Determine the kill probability for each grid at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area under one, two, ..., multiple attacks by drones;

[0033] According to the fitting curve Figure 1 The determined multiple kill probabilities are used to calculate the probability of personnel kill for each grid in the uncovered personnel activity area under multiple batches of drone attacks;

[0034] According to the fitting curve Figure 2 The determined multiple kill probabilities are used to calculate the probability of personnel kill in each grid at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area under multiple batch attacks by drones.

[0035] In some embodiments, calculating the probability of personnel casualties for each grid in the uncovered personnel activity area under multiple drone attacks specifically includes:

[0036] Determine the i+1 target points of the target island and reef that the drone will attack consecutively i+1 times, and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point;

[0037] Based on the target point during a drone attack, calculate the position of each grid point in each area of the uncovered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 1 Find the probability of personnel killing corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0038] Determine the location of each grid point Probability of casualties in a single drone attack:

[0039]

[0040] Based on the target points during the second drone attack, calculate the location of each grid point in each area of the uncovered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 1 Find the probability of personnel killing corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0041] Determine the location of each grid point Probability of casualties in a second drone attack:

[0042]

[0043] Similarly, based on the target point of the drone during the i+1 attack, the grid point of each area in the uncovered personnel activity area is calculated. The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 1 Find the probability of personnel killing corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0044] Determine the location of each grid point The probability of casualties under drone i+1 attacks:

[0045] .

[0046] In some embodiments, calculating the probability of personnel casualties for each grid at different altitudes in a sheltered personnel activity area under a multi-batch attack by drones specifically includes:

[0047] Determine the i+1 target points of the target island and reef that the drone will attack consecutively i+1 times, and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point;

[0048] Based on the target point of a drone attack, calculate the grid point position of each area at different altitudes in each area of the sheltered personnel activity area. The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 2 Find the probability of personnel killing corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0049] Determine the location of each grid point Probability of casualties in a single drone attack:

[0050]

[0051] Based on the target points during the second drone attack, calculate the grid points at different altitudes in each area of the sheltered personnel activity area. The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 2 Find the probability of personnel killing corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0052] Determine the location of each grid point Probability of casualties in a second drone attack:

[0053]

[0054] Similarly, based on the target point of the drone during the i+1 attack, calculate the grid point of each area at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area. The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 2 Find the probability of personnel killing corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0055] Determine the location of each grid point The probability of casualties under drone i+1 attacks:

[0056] .

[0057] In some embodiments, the probability of personnel casualties on the entire target island or reef under the impact load of the drone is determined as follows:

[0058] The probability of personnel distribution in each grid of each area of the target island and reef and the probability of personnel killing in each grid of each area of the target island and reef under multiple batches of drone attacks are multiplied and then added together to determine the probability of personnel killing on the entire target island and reef under the impact load of the drone.

[0059] In some embodiments, the formula for determining the probability of personnel casualties on the entire target island or reef under the impact load of the drone is:

[0060]

[0061] Where, The probability of personnel casualties in each grid of each area of the target island and reef after the drone attacks i+1 times and the probability of personnel distribution in each grid of each area of the target island and reef are The sum of the products is accumulated.

[0062] The present invention offers a significant advantage over existing technologies in that it proposes a method for determining the probability of personnel casualties on islands and reefs under the impact of drone impact loads. This method, taking a holistic view of the islands and reefs under attack, considers the overall situation and the distribution of personnel. The method then calculates and statistically analyzes the overall probability of personnel casualties on islands and reefs affected by the shock wave of drone attacks, providing a reference for assessing personnel casualties during wartime attacks and considering corresponding defensive measures.

[0063] This method can rapidly calculate the probability of casualties on an island or reef when subjected to the impact loads of multiple drone explosions at multiple locations and batches. This allows researchers to adjust the distribution of personnel in different areas based on this probability to reduce the probability of casualties on that island or reef. Furthermore, the construction area or height of shelters on that island or reef can be adjusted to reduce the probability of casualties. By reducing the probability of casualties, casualties in potential attacks are significantly reduced, thereby safeguarding the lives of those on the island or reef. This helps maintain the normal operation of the island or reef and prevents functional paralysis.

[0064] It should be understood that the contents described in the Summary of the Invention section are not intended to limit the key or important features of the embodiments of the present invention, nor are they intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Other features of the present invention will become readily understood through the following description. In addition, the implementation of any embodiment of the present invention does not mean that multiple or all of the above-mentioned beneficial effects must be simultaneously possessed or achieved. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0065] To more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are merely exemplary, and those skilled in the art can, without inventive effort, derive other implementation drawings based on the provided drawings.

[0066] The structures, proportions, sizes, etc. illustrated in this specification are intended solely to complement the contents disclosed herein and to facilitate understanding and reading by persons skilled in the art. They are not intended to limit the conditions under which the present invention may be implemented and therefore have no substantive technical significance. Any structural modifications, changes in proportions, or adjustments in sizes, provided they do not affect the efficacy and objectives of the present invention, shall remain within the scope of the technical contents disclosed herein.

[0067] Figure 1 Schematic diagram of the overall process of a method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to some embodiments of the present invention;

[0068] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the 3D grid division of a certain island reef from a bird's-eye view;

[0069] Figure 3 A three-dimensional schematic diagram of the 3D grid division of a certain island reef;

[0070] Figure 4 This is a table schematic diagram showing how to determine the killing distance under different killing probabilities at different charges in an area where exposed personnel are active when simulating a drone attacking an island or reef in one embodiment of the present invention;

[0071] Figure 5 This is a fitting curve for determining the killing distance under different killing probabilities under different doses of explosives in the exposed human activity area when simulating a drone attacking an island reef according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1 ;

[0072] Figure 6 A schematic diagram of a table showing how to determine the killing distances of different heights in an area with sheltered personnel under different amounts of explosives when simulating a drone attack on an island or reef according to one embodiment of the present invention;

[0073] Figure 7 This is a fitting curve for determining the killing distance based on different killing probabilities at different altitudes and different amounts of explosives when simulating a drone attack on an island or reef in one embodiment of the present invention. Figure 2 . DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0074] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more clearly understood, the embodiments of the present invention are further described in detail below in conjunction with the embodiments and drawings. Here, the exemplary embodiments of the present invention and their descriptions are used to explain the present invention, but are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0075] In the present invention, unless otherwise expressly specified or limited, the terms "mounted," "connected," "connect," "fixed," etc. should be understood broadly. For example, they may refer to fixed connection, detachable connection, or integration; mechanical connection or electrical connection; direct connection or indirect connection through an intermediate medium; internal communication between two components or interaction between two components. Those skilled in the art will understand the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention based on specific circumstances.

[0076] It should be understood that the terms "comprises / comprising," "consisting of," or any other variations thereof are intended to encompass non-exclusive inclusion, such that a product, apparatus, process, or method that includes a list of elements includes not only those elements but also, if necessary, other elements not explicitly listed, or elements inherent to such product, apparatus, process, or method. In the absence of further limitations, elements defined by the phrases "comprises / comprising," "consisting of," do not preclude the presence of additional identical elements in the product, apparatus, process, or method that includes the elements.

[0077] It should also be understood that terms such as "upper", "lower", "front", "back", "left", "right", "top", "bottom", "inside", and "outside" indicating directions or positional relationships are based on the directions or positional relationships shown in the accompanying drawings, and are only for the convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the device, component or structure referred to must have a specific direction, be constructed or operate in a specific direction, and should not be understood as limiting the present invention.

[0078] The implementation of the present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with preferred embodiments.

[0079] The present invention proposes a method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone. In some embodiments, see Figure 1 The flowchart shown includes the following steps: S10: dividing the target islands and reefs into areas with uncovered personnel activity and areas with covered personnel activity, and dividing each area into grids; S20: counting the distribution of personnel within each grid in each area at different time periods to determine the probability of personnel distribution; S30: simulating and calculating the killing distance corresponding to different killing probabilities under different explosive charges when a single drone attacks the uncovered personnel activity area, and drawing the corresponding fitting curve Figure 1 ; S40: Simulate the calculation of the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives when a single drone attacks a sheltered area, and draw the corresponding fitting curve Figure 2 ; S50: based on the fitting curve Figure 1 , fitting curve Figure 2 Calculate the probability of personnel being killed or injured in each grid of each area of the target island or reef under multiple batches of drone attacks; S60: determine the probability of personnel being killed or injured in the entire target island or reef under the impact load of the drone.

[0080] It should be noted that, in other embodiments, the order of step S30 and step S40 in the flowchart can be swapped. The killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives when a single drone attacks a sheltered activity area can be simulated and calculated first, and the corresponding fitting curve can be drawn. Figure 2; Then simulate and calculate the killing distance corresponding to different killing probabilities under different amounts of explosives when a single drone attacks an unsheltered area where people are active, and draw the corresponding fitting curve Figure 1 .

[0081] In step S10, the target islands and reefs are divided into uncovered personnel activity areas and covered personnel activity areas, and each area is divided into grids.

[0082] In this step, the target islands and reefs are first determined, that is, the islands and reefs for which personnel casualty probability simulation calculations are required; then, the target islands and reefs are divided into uncovered personnel activity areas and covered personnel activity areas based on the distribution of personnel in different time periods; finally, each area is divided into grids.

[0083] It's easy to understand that an unsheltered personnel movement area is an area without shelter or protective measures. A sheltered personnel movement area is an area equipped with protective facilities that can provide shelter and protection for personnel in wartime or emergency situations. Sheltered personnel movement areas on target islands and reefs generally refer to shelter structures at different levels. Unsheltered personnel movement areas can be either living or work areas. Similarly, sheltered personnel movement areas can also be either living or work areas.

[0084] In some embodiments, the grid division of each area includes: establishing a three-dimensional rectangular coordinate system for the target island reef, which should satisfy the establishment of a spatial Cartesian rectangular coordinate system. When establishing it specifically, it can be referenced according to the principle of convenient expression. Figure 1 Use discretion and select an appropriate origin and x- and y-axis directions. The z-axis should, in principle, be perpendicular to the horizontal plane of the island. The x-axis represents the horizontal distance between the grid center and the origin of the coordinate system, i.e., the distance along the x-axis. The y-axis represents the vertical distance between the grid center and the origin, i.e., the distance along the y-axis. The z-axis represents the vertical distance between the grid center and the origin, i.e., the distance along the z-axis. Different 3D grids of varying coarseness are applied to each area, depending on the region being divided.

[0085] In this embodiment, each grid is positioned, numbered, and named, and the coordinates of the grid center point in the rectangular coordinate system are used to refer to the grid, so as to clearly distinguish and specify each grid in subsequent calculations and formula expressions.

[0086] When making specific divisions, if the population in an area is relatively small or the distribution is relatively dispersed, a larger grid can be used; if the population in an area is relatively large or the distribution is relatively compact, a smaller grid can be used.

[0087] See also Figure 2 、 Figure 3 ,in Figure 2This is a plan view of the 3D grid division of a certain island reef from a bird's-eye view. Figure 2 Provide a reference for controlling the size of grid division, basic form and overall division logic. Figure 3 This is a three-dimensional schematic diagram of the 3D grid division of a certain island reef. Figure 3 Provide a reference for the specific spatial attribute form of the grid.

[0088] When dividing the island and reef areas into grids, the grids of the relevant areas should be divided as appropriate based on the buildings (shelters) contained in the area, the terrain of the area, the density of the population distribution, etc. Figure 2 The grid is a 3D grid, as shown in the figure. Figure 3 As shown, a regular cuboid is used as a grid unit. When a person's spatial position is within the cuboid, the person is considered to be a person of the corresponding grid and participates in the statistical calculation of the corresponding grid. In addition, for the description of each grid, the coordinates of each grid center point in the spatial rectangular coordinate system are taken It is used as a number to refer to each grid, which is used to facilitate the description of the steps and statistical calculations described later.

[0089] In step S20, the distribution of people in each grid in each area in different time periods is counted to determine the probability of people distribution.

[0090] Specifically, the expression of personnel distribution probability is:

[0091] =

[0092] This method uses the percentage of personnel rank weights within each grid to represent the probability of personnel distribution within each grid. For example, each person's base weight is 1. Based on factors such as their military rank and the importance of their work, a comprehensive evaluation can be used to assign higher weights, such as 2, 3, 4, and so on, to some individuals. The sum of the weights of the personnel within each grid and the sum of the weights of the personnel on the target islands and reefs is then determined based on each individual's actual weight. The sum of the weights of the personnel within each grid divided by the sum of the weights of the personnel on the target islands and reefs yields the percentage of personnel rank weights within each grid.

[0093] In this step, from the perspective of the military strategy of the target islands and reefs, when evaluating the probability of personnel casualties on the target islands and reefs, it is necessary to comprehensively consider factors such as the overall wartime command significance of each personnel to the target islands and reefs, refer to personal rank and the core degree of their work, and assign higher weights to some personnel to ensure that the final calculation result of the kill probability has practical reference significance for evaluating the resilience of the islands and reefs (the ability of the islands and reefs to resist destruction and repair after attacks) from the perspective of personnel casualties.

[0094] In step S30, the killing distance corresponding to different killing probabilities under different explosive amounts when the drone attacks an unsheltered human activity area is simulated and the corresponding fitting curve is drawn. Figure 1 .

[0095] This step specifically includes:

[0096] Through simulation calculation, the shock wave overpressure corresponding to different distances under different explosive amounts is obtained;

[0097] Based on the analysis of the damage to the human body caused by overpressure, the probability of casualties is assessed based on the damage to the human body;

[0098] Determine the killing distance corresponding to different amounts of explosives based on the probability of killing different personnel;

[0099] Record multiple data on the killing distance determined by the probability of killing different personnel under different amounts of explosives in a table;

[0100] Based on the data in the above table, a fitting curve of the probability of killing personnel at different killing distances under different amounts of explosives is drawn. Figure 1 .

[0101] More specifically, in this step, simulation calculations should be used to obtain the shock wave overpressure at different distances under different explosive quantities. The impact of the overpressure on human damage should then be analyzed, and the kill probability should be assessed based on the human damage. The corresponding distance from the detonation point (kill distance) corresponding to the different kill probabilities should be comprehensively calculated. The results should be recorded in a table, and the data should be plotted as a fitting curve. Figure 1 , so that you can directly refer to the diagram during formal calculations.

[0102] In one embodiment, see Figure 4 、 Figure 5 The computer software simulation was used to calculate the shock wave overpressure at different distances when the explosive quantity was 1m(TNT) / kg, 5m(TNT) / kg, 10m(TNT) / kg, 20m(TNT) / kg and 30m(TNT) / kg. The human body injury caused by the overpressure was analyzed and the killing probability was evaluated based on the human body injury. The critical distance from the detonation point corresponding to the probability of killing 1% and 99% under different explosive quantities was obtained comprehensively. Specifically, when the explosive quantities are 1m(TNT) / kg, 5m(TNT) / kg, 10m(TNT) / kg, 20m(TNT) / kg and 30m(TNT) / kg, the critical distances from the detonation point corresponding to a kill probability of 1% are 0.6m, 1.6m, 2.4m, 3.3m and 4m respectively; and the critical distances from the detonation point corresponding to a kill probability of 99% are 0.4m, 0.9m, 1.4m, 2.0m and 2.6m respectively. Figure 4In the table shown, and according to Figure 4 The tabular data shown is plotted as Figure 5 The fitting curve shown Figure 1 , for direct reference to the diagram during formal calculations. The data in this embodiment are derived from relevant literature. It should be understood that the above data are only for reference during illustrative descriptions, and the specific parameters need to be determined separately during actual implementation based on specific simulation results.

[0103] In the present invention, when checking the map to confirm the probability of killing people in a certain grid in the uncovered human activity area under a single attack by a drone, the killing distance between the center of the grid and the attacked center (based on the distance from the detonation point) should be calculated first, and then the killing probability map should be used to calculate the killing distance between the center of the grid and the attacked center. Figure 5 For example, according to the amount of explosives in the attack and the distance from the detonation point, the corresponding points are drawn in the figure. When the point is below the 99% kill probability line in the figure, the probability of death of the people in the grid is considered to be 100%. When the point is above the 1% kill probability line in the figure, the probability of death of the people in the grid is considered to be 0. When the point is between the 99% and 1% kill probability lines in the figure, the probability of killing the people in the grid is considered to be 50%.

[0104] It is easy to understand that this step is not limited to 99% and 1% kill probabilities, and more accurate kill probabilities such as 90%, 65%, and 10% can be used to divide the human body injury situation more finely. Figure 1 The same principle can be applied in the figure. According to the attack situation, other kill probability values can be used as appropriate for the points drawn on the map.

[0105] In step S40, the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives when the drone attacks the sheltered personnel activity area is simulated and calculated, and the corresponding fitting curve is drawn. Figure 2 .

[0106] This step specifically includes:

[0107] The shock wave overpressure at different heights of the corresponding shelter under different explosive quantities is calculated by simulation;

[0108] Based on the analysis of the damage to the human body caused by overpressure, the probability of casualties is assessed based on the damage to the human body;

[0109] Based on the different probability of killing people, the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter with different explosive amounts is determined;

[0110] Record multiple data on the killing distances determined by different killing probabilities at different heights of the shelter under different amounts of explosives in a table;

[0111] Based on the data in the above table, a fitting curve of the probability of killing personnel at different killing distances at different heights of the shelter under different amounts of explosives is drawn. Figure 2 .

[0112] More specifically, in this step, simulations should be performed for each type of building (shelter at different heights) that may appear on the target island or reef. The overpressure at different heights within the building, at different distances from the center of the building's bottom to the detonation point, should be obtained for different amounts of explosives. The resulting overpressure, based on the analysis of human injury, should be used to assess the probability of casualty. The distance from the building's bottom to the detonation point (the casualty distance) corresponding to the different probability of casualty should be comprehensively calculated. The results should be recorded in a table, and the data should be plotted as a fitted surface. Figure 2 , so that you can directly refer to the diagram during formal calculations.

[0113] In one embodiment, see Figure 6 、 Figure 7The computer software simulation calculates the shock wave overpressure of the shelter at the height of 0m, 3m and 6m under the conditions of explosive quantities of 1m(TNT) / kg, 5m(TNT) / kg, 10m(TNT) / kg, 20m(TNT) / kg and 30m(TNT) / kg. Then, based on the analysis of the damage caused by the overpressure to the human body, the killing probability is evaluated based on the damage to the human body. The critical distance from the detonation point corresponding to the 1% and 99% probability of personnel killing under different explosive quantities when the shelter height is 0m, 3m and 6m is obtained comprehensively. Specifically, when the shelter height is 0m, and the explosive quantities are 1m(TNT) / kg, 5m(TNT) / kg, 10m(TNT) / kg, 20m(TNT) / kg and 30m(TNT) / kg respectively, the critical distances from the detonation point corresponding to a kill probability of 1% are 0.6m, 1.6m, 2.4m, 3.3m and 4m respectively; the critical distances from the detonation point corresponding to a kill probability of 99% are 0.4m, 0.9m, 1.4m, 2.0m and 2.6m respectively. When the shelter height is 3m, and the explosive quantities are 1m(TNT) / kg, 5m(TNT) / kg, 10m(TNT) / kg, 20m(TNT) / kg and 30m(TNT) / kg respectively, the critical distances from the detonation point when the kill probability is 1% are 0.55m, 1.55m, 2.35m, 3.25m and 3.95m respectively; when the kill probability is 99%, the critical distances from the detonation point are 0.35m, 0.85m, 1.35m, 1.95m and 2.55m respectively. When the shelter height is 5m, and the explosive charge is 1m(TNT) / kg, 5m(TNT) / kg, 10m(TNT) / kg, 20m(TNT) / kg, and 30m(TNT) / kg, the critical distances from the detonation point corresponding to a kill probability of 1% are 0.5m, 1.5m, 2.3m, 3.2m, and 3.9m respectively; and the critical distances from the detonation point corresponding to a kill probability of 99% are 0.3m, 0.8m, 1.3m, 1.9m, and 2.5m respectively. Figure 6 In the table shown, and according to Figure 6 The table shown is drawn as Figure 7 The fitting curve shown Figure 2 , for direct reference in formal calculations. It should be understood that the above data is only for reference during illustrative purposes, and the specific parameters need to be determined separately during actual implementation based on specific simulation results.

[0114] In the present invention, when checking the map to confirm the probability of killing people in a certain grid at a certain height layer with a sheltered personnel activity area under a single attack by a drone, the killing distance between the bottom center of the building corresponding to the grid and the attacked center (based on the distance from the detonation point) should be calculated first, and then the killing probability map of the corresponding height layer of the corresponding building should be used to calculate the killing distance between the building bottom center and the attacked center. Figure 7 For example, according to the amount of explosives in the attack and the distance from the detonation point, the corresponding points are drawn in the figure. When the point is below the 99% probability line in the figure, the probability of death of the people in the grid is considered to be 100%. When the point is above the 1% probability line in the figure, the probability of death of the people in the grid is considered to be 0. When the point is between the 99% and 1% probability lines in the figure, the probability of killing the people in the grid is considered to be 50%.

[0115] It is easy to understand that, similar to the previous step, in this step, we are not limited to 99% and 1% kill probabilities, and can use more precise kill probabilities such as 90%, 65%, and 10% to make a more detailed classification of human injury conditions. Of course, it is not limited to 0m, 3m, and 6m building heights, and can also use other heights such as 2.8m, 5.6m, and 8.4m or other heights. At this time, in the fitting curve Figure 2 The same principle can be applied in the figure. According to the attack situation, other kill probability values can be used as appropriate for the points drawn on the map.

[0116] In step S50, the probability of personnel casualties in each grid of each area of the target island or reef under multiple batches of drone attacks is calculated.

[0117] In this step, we should first confirm the multiple representative target points of the target islands and reefs that the drone has attacked multiple times based on expert experience and research, and determine the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point; then, based on the fitting curve Figure 1 Determine the corresponding kill probability when each grid in the uncovered personnel activity area is attacked by a drone once, twice, ..., multiple times, and the corresponding kill probability based on the fitting curve Figure 2 Determine the corresponding kill probability of each grid at different height layers in the sheltered personnel activity area when it is attacked by the drone once, twice, ..., multiple times; finally, according to the fitting curve Figure 1 The multiple kill probabilities determined are used to calculate the kill probability of each grid in the uncovered personnel activity area after multiple batches of drone attacks, and the fitting curve is ... Figure 2 The determined multiple kill probabilities are used to calculate the probability of personnel kill in each grid at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area after being attacked by multiple batches of drones.

[0118] In the present invention, each attack launched by an attacking entity (drone) is first calculated separately. An attack launched by an attacking entity on an attack point is counted as one attack action.

[0119] In a specific embodiment, calculating the probability of casualties for each grid in an uncovered human activity area under multiple drone attacks specifically includes:

[0120] Determine the i+1 target points of the target island and reef that the drone will attack consecutively i+1 times, and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point;

[0121] Based on the target point during a drone attack, calculate the position of each grid point in each area of the uncovered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 1 Find the probability of killing people at the corresponding killing distance ;

[0122] Determine the location of each grid point in each area of the uncovered personnel activity zone Probability of casualties in a single drone attack:

[0123]

[0124] Based on the target points during the second drone attack, calculate the location of each grid point in each area of the uncovered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 1 Find the probability of killing people at the corresponding killing distance ;

[0125] Determine each grid point in each area of the uncovered personnel activity area Probability of casualties in a second drone attack:

[0126]

[0127] Based on the target points during the three drone attacks, calculate the location of each grid point in each area of the uncovered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 1 Find the probability of killing people at the corresponding killing distance ;

[0128] Determine each grid point in each area of the uncovered personnel activity area Probability of casualties in three drone attacks:

[0129]

[0130] Similarly, based on the target point of the drone during the i+1 attack, the grid point of each area in the uncovered personnel activity area is calculated. The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 1Find the probability of killing people at the corresponding killing distance ;

[0131] Determine each grid point in each area of the uncovered personnel activity area The probability of casualties under drone i+1 attacks:

[0132] .

[0133] In a specific embodiment, calculating the probability of personnel casualties for each grid at different altitudes in a sheltered personnel activity area under a multi-batch attack by drones specifically includes:

[0134] Determine the i+1 target points of the target island and reef that the drone will attack consecutively i+1 times, and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point;

[0135] Based on the target point of a drone attack, calculate the grid point position of each area at different altitudes in each area of the sheltered personnel activity area. The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 2 Find the probability of personnel killing corresponding to the killing distance at different altitudes ;

[0136] Determine the location of each grid point at different altitudes in each area of the sheltered personnel activity area Probability of casualties in a single drone attack:

[0137]

[0138] Based on the target points during the second drone attack, calculate the grid points at different altitudes in each area of the sheltered personnel activity area. The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 2 Find the probability of personnel killing corresponding to the killing distance at different altitudes ;

[0139] Determine the location of each grid point at different altitudes in each area of the sheltered personnel activity area Probability of casualties in a second drone attack:

[0140]

[0141] Based on the target points during the three drone attacks, calculate the grid points at different altitudes in each area of the sheltered personnel activity area. The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 2 Find the probability of killing people at the corresponding killing distance ;

[0142] Determine the location of each grid point at different altitudes in each area of the sheltered personnel activity area Probability of casualties in three drone attacks:

[0143]

[0144] Similarly, based on the target point of the drone during the i+1 attack, calculate the grid point of each area at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area. The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 2 Find the probability of personnel killing corresponding to the killing distance at different altitudes ;

[0145] Determine the location of each grid point at different altitudes in each area of the sheltered personnel activity area The probability of casualties under drone i+1 attacks:

[0146] .

[0147] In step S60, the overall probability of casualties on the target island or reef under the impact load of the drone is determined. This is determined by multiplying the probability of casualties on each grid cell in each region of the target island or reef by the probability of casualties on each grid cell in each region of the target island or reef under multiple drone attacks, and then accumulating the result.

[0148] In some embodiments, the formula for determining the probability of personnel casualties on the entire target island or reef under the impact load of the drone is:

[0149]

[0150] Where, The probability of personnel casualties in each grid of each area of the target island and reef after the drone attacks i+1 times and the probability of personnel distribution in each grid of each area of the target island and reef are The sum of the products is accumulated.

[0151] It's easy to understand that the method proposed in this invention for determining the probability of casualties for island reef personnel under the impact load of drones consists of two main steps: a preliminary preparation phase and a specific calculation phase. Specifically, in the preliminary preparation phase, regardless of the specific attack scenario, each area of the island reef is pre-divided into appropriately coarse and fine grids based on the distribution of personnel on the island reef. Simulations are then used to calculate the probability of casualties for personnel in exposed and sheltered areas when subjected to shock waves with different explosive charges and different kill distances, and the results are plotted in a graph for easy reference. In the specific calculation phase, based on the pre-divided grids, the previously plotted graph is used to determine the probability of casualties for personnel in each grid under a single attack. Furthermore, considering the cumulative effect of the probability of casualties for multiple attacks on the island reef, a probability calculation is performed to determine the comprehensive probability of casualties for personnel in each grid under multiple attacks. This result is then multiplied by the probability of personnel distribution in each grid. The results for all grids are then summed to determine the overall probability of casualties for the island reef under a drone attack.

[0152] This method can rapidly calculate the probability of casualties when a target island or reef is subjected to the impact loads of multiple drone explosions at multiple locations and batches. This allows researchers to adjust the distribution of personnel in different areas based on this probability to reduce the probability of casualties on that island or reef. Furthermore, the construction area or height of shelters on that island or reef can be adjusted to reduce the probability of casualties. By reducing the probability of casualties, casualties in potential attacks are significantly reduced, thereby safeguarding the lives of those on the island or reef. This helps maintain the normal operation of the island or reef and prevents functional paralysis.

[0153] It is easy for those skilled in the art to understand that, under the premise of no conflict, the above preferred solutions can be freely combined and superimposed.

[0154] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone, characterized by: The steps include: Divide the target islands and reefs into areas with uncovered and covered personnel activities, and divide each area into grids; Count the distribution of people in each grid in each area at different time periods and determine the probability of people distribution; Simulate and calculate the killing distance corresponding to different killing probabilities under different explosive amounts when a drone attacks an unsheltered area, and draw the corresponding fitting curve Figure 1; The simulation calculates the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different explosive amounts when a UAV attacks a sheltered area, and draws the corresponding fitting curve Figure 2; Based on the fitting curve graph 1 and the fitting curve graph 2, the probability of personnel casualties in each grid of each area of the target island reef under multiple batches of drone attacks is calculated; Specifically include: Determine the multiple target locations for drones to attack the target islands and reefs in successive batches and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target location; Based on the fitting curve graph 1, the corresponding kill probability of each grid in the uncovered personnel activity area under the drone attack once, twice, ..., multiple times is determined; Based on the fitting curve in Figure 2, the corresponding kill probability of each grid at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area under 1, 2, ..., multiple attacks by drones is determined; Based on the multiple kill probabilities determined by the fitting curve diagram 1, the kill probability of each grid in the uncovered personnel activity area under multiple batches of drone attacks is calculated; Based on the multiple kill probabilities determined by the fitting curve in Figure 2, the kill probability of personnel in each grid at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area under multiple batches of drone attacks is calculated; Determine the probability of casualties on the target island or reef as a whole under the impact load of the drone.

2. The method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The grid division of each area includes: Establishing a three-dimensional rectangular coordinate system for the target islands and reefs; Each area is divided into 3D grids of different coarseness and density based on at least one of building conditions, regional terrain, and population density.

3. The method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The personnel distribution probability is: = ； Where x represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system along the horizontal direction, that is, the distance along the x-axis; y represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system along the vertical direction, that is, the distance along the y-axis; and z represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system along the height direction, that is, the distance along the z-axis.

4. The method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The simulation calculation of the killing distance corresponding to different killing probabilities under different explosive amounts when a drone attacks an unsheltered human activity area in a single attack, and drawing the corresponding fitting curve diagram specifically includes: Simulate and calculate the shock wave overpressure at different distances under different explosive quantities; Based on the analysis of the damage caused by the shock wave overpressure to the human body, the probability of personnel casualties is assessed based on the damage to the human body; Determine the killing distance corresponding to different amounts of explosives based on the probability of killing different personnel; Based on multiple data of killing distances for different personnel killing probabilities under different explosive quantities, a plurality of fitting curves of personnel killing probabilities corresponding to different killing distances under different explosive quantities are drawn (Figure 1).

5. The method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The simulation calculation of the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives when a drone attacks a sheltered personnel activity area in a single attack, and drawing the corresponding fitting curve graph 2 specifically includes: Simulate and calculate the shock wave overpressure at different height levels of the corresponding shelter under different explosive quantities; Based on the analysis of the damage caused by the shock wave overpressure to the human body, the probability of personnel casualties is assessed based on the damage to the human body; Based on the different probability of killing people, the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter with different explosive amounts is determined; Based on multiple data on different killing probabilities corresponding to different heights of shelters under different amounts of explosives, a second fitting curve of the probability of killing personnel corresponding to different killing distances at different heights of shelters under different amounts of explosives is drawn.

6. The method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Calculating the probability of casualties for each grid in the uncovered human activity area under multiple drone attacks specifically includes: Determine the i+1 target points of the target island and reef that the drone will attack consecutively i+1 times, and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point; Based on the target point during a drone attack, calculate the position of each grid point in each area of the uncovered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point, and the probability of killing people corresponding to the killing distance is found in the fitting curve diagram 1 ; Determine the location of each grid point Probability of casualties in a single drone attack: ； Based on the target points during the second drone attack, calculate the location of each grid point in each area of the uncovered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point, and the probability of killing people corresponding to the killing distance is found in the fitting curve diagram 1 ; Determine the location of each grid point Probability of casualties in a second drone attack: ； Similarly, based on the target point of the drone during the i+1 attack, calculate the grid point of each area in the uncovered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point, and the probability of killing people corresponding to the killing distance is found in the fitting curve diagram 1 ; Determine the location of each grid point The probability of casualties under drone i+1 attacks: 。 7. The method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Calculating the probability of casualties for each grid at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area under multiple drone attacks specifically includes: Determine the i+1 target points of the target island and reef that the drone will attack consecutively i+1 times, and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point; Based on the target point of a drone attack, calculate the grid point position of each area at different altitudes in each area of the sheltered personnel activity area. The killing distance from the target point, and find the killing probability of personnel corresponding to the killing distance in the fitting curve diagram 2 ; Determine the location of each grid point Probability of casualties in a single drone attack: ； Based on the target points during the second drone attack, calculate the grid points at different altitudes in each area of the sheltered personnel activity area. The killing distance from the target point, and find the killing probability of personnel corresponding to the killing distance in the fitting curve diagram 2 ; Determine the location of each grid point Probability of casualties in a second drone attack: ； Similarly, based on the target point of the drone during the i+1 attack, calculate the grid point of each area at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area. The killing distance from the target point, and find the killing probability of personnel corresponding to the killing distance in the fitting curve diagram 2 ; Determine the location of each grid point The probability of casualties under drone i+1 attacks: 。 8. The method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The probability of personnel casualties on the target island or reef as a whole under the impact load of the UAV is: The probability of personnel distribution in each grid of each area of the target island and reef and the probability of personnel killing in each grid of each area of the target island and reef under multiple batches of drone attacks are multiplied and then added together to determine the probability of personnel killing on the entire target island and reef under the impact load of the drone.

9. The method for obtaining the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 8 is characterized in that: The formula for determining the probability of personnel casualties on the target island or reef as a whole under the impact load of the drone is: ； Where, The probability of personnel casualties in each grid of each area of the target island and reef after the drone attacks i+1 times and the probability of personnel distribution in each grid of each area of the target island and reef are The sum of the products and accumulations.

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