An optical cable management method and management system based on artificial intelligence

Abstract

The present invention relates to the technical field of power line fault early warning, and specifically to an optical cable management method and management system based on artificial intelligence. The present invention solves the problem of how to repair multiple cables at the same time while ensuring the safe operation of the cables to improve maintenance efficiency. To solve the above problem, an embodiment of the present invention provides an optical cable management method based on artificial intelligence. The management method includes: obtaining historical operation data and historical maintenance data of the working cable, monitoring the operation data of the working cable in real time, and recording it as real-time operation data; determining the risk probability of the working cable based on the real-time operation data, the historical operation data and the historical maintenance data, and judging whether the working cable needs maintenance based on the risk probability.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power line fault early warning technology, and in particular to an optical cable management method and management system based on artificial intelligence. Background Art

[0002] Optical cables are a crucial component of power system security. Their safety not only affects power supply reliability but also the safety of people's lives and property. Analyzing and early warning of optical cable safety is essential for power system operation. It can identify hidden dangers and problems, reduce the number of failures and repair time, improve power supply reliability, stability, and safety, and reduce the risk of accidents. Therefore, analyzing and early warning of optical cable safety is of practical significance. With the development of society, the number of optical cables is increasing, and the workload of optical cable maintenance is also increasing. When there are multiple optical cables requiring maintenance, maintenance personnel are often insufficient. Therefore, how to rationally organize maintenance work is the key to improving maintenance efficiency. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The problem solved by the present invention is how to repair multiple cables simultaneously while ensuring the safe operation of the cables, thereby improving maintenance efficiency.

[0004] To solve the above problems, an embodiment of the present invention provides an artificial intelligence-based management method for optical cables, the management method comprising: obtaining historical operation data and historical maintenance data of the working cable, monitoring the operation data of the working cable in real time, and recording it as real-time operation data; determining the risk probability of the working cable based on the real-time operation data, historical operation data and historical maintenance data, and judging whether the working cable needs maintenance based on the risk probability; when the working cable needs maintenance, the working cable is recorded as a cable to be maintained, the geographical location of the cable to be maintained is recorded as a maintenance point, and a monitoring area is established with the maintenance point as the center; within a target time period, when a new cable to be maintained is added to the monitoring area, all cables to be maintained in the monitoring area are recorded as a group to be maintained, and the maintenance order of the group to be maintained is determined according to the risk probability; within the target time period, when no new cable to be maintained is added to the monitoring area, the maintenance method of the cable to be maintained is determined according to the change in the risk probability of the cable to be maintained within the target time period.

[0005] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effects achieved by adopting this technical solution are: by obtaining the historical operation data of the working cable, the current operation status of the working cable can be better predicted, and by comparing the real-time operation data with the historical operation data, it is preliminarily predicted whether the working cable is at risk. The acquisition of historical maintenance data fully considers the previous working status of the working cable. The risk probability of the working cable can be further corrected through the historical maintenance data, so that the risk probability of the working cable is more in line with the actual situation. Determining the monitoring area through the maintenance point can not only improve the efficiency of the division of the maintenance group, but also make the division of the maintenance group more in line with the actual maintenance needs. In addition, the setting of the target time period further limits the time for the division of the maintenance group, making the division of the maintenance group more reasonable. The maintenance order of the maintenance group is determined by comparing the risk probability, which improves the rationality of the maintenance work.

[0006] In one embodiment of the present invention, the risk probability of the working cable is determined based on real-time operation data, historical operation data and historical maintenance data, and whether the working cable needs maintenance is judged based on the risk probability, specifically including: obtaining the theoretical working current of the working cable in the current time period based on the historical operation data; obtaining the real-time working current from the real-time operation data, and calculating the current difference between the real-time working current and the theoretical working current; determining the operation fluctuation coefficient of the working cable based on the historical maintenance data, and calculating the risk probability of the working cable based on the operation fluctuation coefficient and the current difference; when the risk probability is greater than or equal to the risk threshold, the working cable needs maintenance; when the risk probability is less than the risk threshold, the working cable does not need maintenance.

[0007] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is as follows: the setting of the operating fluctuation coefficient fully considers the impact of maintenance on cable equipment, and sets the risk threshold of the working cable according to the working age of the working cable and the month of the current monitoring cycle, fully considering the impact of external environmental changes and the health of the cable itself on the working current fluctuation, making the judgment of cables to be maintained more reasonable.

[0008] In one embodiment of the present invention, the theoretical working current of the working cable in the current time period is obtained based on historical operation data, specifically including: dividing each natural year into multiple target monitoring periods, recording the target monitoring period of the current natural day as the current monitoring period, and recording the target monitoring week before the current natural day as the historical monitoring period; obtaining the historical monitoring period corresponding to the current monitoring period, recording it as the comparison monitoring period, obtaining the current fluctuation range and average working current of the working cable in the comparison monitoring period; calculating the theoretical working current based on the average working current and the current fluctuation range.

[0009] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is: obtaining the average working current of the working cable in the corresponding historical monitoring period not only fully considers the situation that the working current of the working cable changes with the changes of external electrical equipment, but also considers the impact of different external environments on the working current, so that the obtained theoretical working current is more reasonable. The theoretical working current is calculated based on the average working current and the current fluctuation range, and the impact of the current fluctuation amplitude and the current fluctuation preference on the theoretical working current is considered, so that the theoretical working current is more in line with the actual situation.

[0010] In one embodiment of the present invention, the operation fluctuation coefficient of the working cable is determined based on historical maintenance data, and the risk probability of the working cable is calculated based on the operation fluctuation coefficient and the current difference, specifically including: obtaining the working years of the working cable, and determining the number threshold of the working cable based on the working years; determining the operation fluctuation coefficient based on the number threshold and the number of maintenance; correcting the current difference based on the operation fluctuation coefficient to obtain the corrected difference, and calculating the risk probability based on the corrected difference.

[0011] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is: the threshold value of the number of working cables is determined according to the working years, and the impact of different maintenance effects of the working cables during the historical monitoring period is fully considered. The corrected theoretical current is obtained through the operating fluctuation coefficient, and the corrected difference is obtained by correcting the theoretical current, theoretical working current and real-time working current, so that the obtained risk probability is more in line with the actual situation.

[0012] In one embodiment of the present invention, during the target time period, when a new cable to be maintained is added to the monitoring area, all cables to be maintained in the monitoring area are recorded as a maintenance group, and the maintenance order of the maintenance group is determined according to the risk probability, specifically including: obtaining the maintenance time corresponding to all cables to be maintained in the maintenance group, and the travel time for maintenance personnel to reach each maintenance point; determining the maintenance order of each maintenance point according to the risk probability corresponding to each cable to be maintained; calculating the transfer time between each maintenance point according to the maintenance order, and determining the maintenance workload of the current natural day according to the transfer time and the maintenance time.

[0013] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is: the maintenance workload of the current natural day is obtained through the journey time, transfer time and maintenance time, which fully considers the working time of the maintenance personnel, making the obtained maintenance workload more reasonable. In addition, based on historical maintenance data, the maintenance market fully considers the different maintenance difficulties of different working cables. In addition, the setting of the maintenance sequence improves the rationality of the maintenance work.

[0014] In one embodiment of the present invention, the maintenance order of each point to be maintained is determined according to the risk probability corresponding to each cable to be maintained, specifically including: calculating the difference between the risk probability of each cable to be maintained and the risk threshold to obtain the risk difference; when the risk differences are different, determining the maintenance order of the points to be maintained according to the risk differences; when the risk differences are the same, obtaining the average maintenance time of the cables to be maintained through the historical maintenance data of the cables to be maintained, and determining the maintenance order of the cables to be maintained according to the average maintenance time.

[0015] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is: the setting of the risk difference fully considers the impact of different risk thresholds on the risk probability.

[0016] In one embodiment of the present invention, the turning time between each point to be maintained is calculated according to the maintenance order, and the maintenance workload of the current natural day is determined according to the turning time and the maintenance time, specifically including: determining the maintenance workload of the current natural day through the turning time and the maintenance time; recording the points to be maintained that can be maintained on the current natural day as maintainable points; and optimizing the maintenance order according to the geographical locations between the maintainable points.

[0017] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is: after determining the maintenance workload, the maintenance sequence is further optimized to improve the work efficiency of the maintenance personnel.

[0018] In one embodiment of the present invention, when no new cables to be maintained are added in the monitoring area within the target time period, the maintenance method of the cables to be maintained is determined based on the change in the risk probability of the cables to be maintained within the target time period, specifically including: when the rising value of the risk probability is greater than or equal to the first management threshold, the cables to be maintained need to be maintained; when the rising value of the risk probability is less than the first management threshold and the falling value is less than the second management threshold, the cables to be maintained do not need to be maintained separately within the target time period; when the falling value of the risk probability is greater than or equal to the second management threshold, the cables to be maintained do not need to be maintained.

[0019] Compared with the existing technology, the technical effect achieved by adopting this technical solution is: the setting of the first management threshold and the second management threshold not only takes into account the operating safety of the cable to be maintained, but also takes into account the maintenance efficiency of the maintenance personnel, thereby improving the rationality of the maintenance work.

[0020] In one embodiment of the present invention, the present invention also provides an artificial intelligence-based management system for optical cables. The management method described in the above embodiment is applied to the management system, and the management system includes: a map module: the map module is used to store the working cable distribution map, and can divide the monitoring area according to the cable distribution map; a monitoring module: the monitoring module is used to monitor real-time operation data; a calculation module: the calculation module is used to calculate the risk probability of the working cable; a judgment module: the judgment module is used to judge whether the working cable needs maintenance. The management system has all the technical features of the above management method, which will not be repeated here. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0021] Figure 1 This is one of the flow charts of the optical cable management method based on artificial intelligence of the present invention;

[0022] Figure 2 This is the second flow chart of the optical cable management method based on artificial intelligence of the present invention;

[0023] Figure 3 This is the third flow chart of the optical cable management method based on artificial intelligence of the present invention;

[0024] Figure 4 This is the fourth flow chart of the optical cable management method based on artificial intelligence of the present invention;

[0025] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of the management system of the present invention;

[0026] Description of reference numerals:

[0027] 100 - management system; 110 - map module; 120 - monitoring module; 130 - calculation module; 140 - judgment module. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0028] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, specific embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0029] [First embodiment]

[0030] See also Figure 1 In a specific embodiment, the present invention provides an artificial intelligence-based management method for optical cables, the management method comprising:

[0031] S100, acquiring historical operation data and historical maintenance data of the working cable, and monitoring the operation data of the working cable in real time, which is recorded as real-time operation data;

[0032] S200, determining a risk probability of the working cable based on real-time operation data, historical operation data, and historical maintenance data, and determining whether the working cable requires maintenance based on the risk probability;

[0033] S300: When a working cable needs maintenance, the working cable is recorded as a cable to be maintained, the geographical location of the cable to be maintained is recorded as a maintenance point, and a monitoring area is established with the maintenance point as the center;

[0034] S400: When a new cable to be maintained is added to the monitoring area during the target time period, all cables to be maintained in the monitoring area are recorded as a maintenance group, and the maintenance order of the maintenance group is determined according to the risk probability;

[0035] S500: When no new cables to be maintained are added in the monitoring area within the target time period, a maintenance method for the cables to be maintained is determined according to a change in risk probability of the cables to be maintained within the target time period.

[0036] In step S100, historical operation data is obtained when the working cable is in normal operation. Both historical operation data and real-time operation data can be obtained through the database of the power company. The operation data of the working cable includes but is not limited to: current fluctuation value, voltage fluctuation value, cable swing rate and electromagnetic wave signal.

[0037] In step S200, by obtaining the historical operating data of the working cable, the current operating status of the working cable can be better predicted, and a preliminary prediction can be made on whether the working cable is at risk. Generally, the operating data of the repaired working cable fluctuates more during operation. In order to avoid the impact of large fluctuations on the working status of the working cable, it is necessary to further calculate the risk probability of the working cable based on the maintenance data.

[0038] In step S300, the distribution map of the working cables is obtained through the map, the geographical location of the cables to be maintained is obtained through the positioning system, and the geographical location of the cables to be maintained is recorded as the point to be maintained. Within the operating range of the power grid company, a monitoring area is established based on the travel time to the point to be maintained. For example, the operating range where the time to reach the point to be maintained is less than 10 minutes is recorded as the monitoring area of ​​the point to be maintained.

[0039] In step S400, when the working cable is at risk, the target time period can be divided according to the application industry and working scenario of the working cable. For example, when the cable to be maintained is a low-voltage cable, if the current load is too large but there is no leakage, the maintenance time of the cable to be maintained can be appropriately delayed. Furthermore, if the cable to be maintained is not on the main power supply line and there is a branch that can share the load, the maintenance time can also be appropriately delayed. Normally, the delayed maintenance time is about one week, but when the current load of the high-voltage transmission cable is too large, regardless of whether the cable to be maintained is on the main power supply line, the maintenance time must be controlled within two days to avoid safety accidents and large-scale power outages caused by high-voltage cable failures.

[0040] It should be noted that when multiple maintenance groups appear within the operating range in the same time period, generally, the maintenance order of the maintenance groups is determined based on the cables with the highest risk probability in each maintenance group. However, when the duration of the cable to be maintained is close to the duration of the target time period, the maintenance group where this maintenance point is located is repaired first. In addition, in special circumstances, such as partial discharge of the cable to be maintained or the risk probability of the cable to be maintained continues to increase within the target time period, the maintenance group to which it belongs is directly carried out without the need to sort the maintenance priority of the group to which it belongs.

[0041] For example, there are three maintenance groups, A, B, and C. The risk probability of the cable requiring maintenance in A is 5%, the risk probability of the cable requiring maintenance in B is 10%, and the risk probability of the cable requiring maintenance in C is 15%. Under normal circumstances, the maintenance order of A, B, and C is C, B, A. However, one of the maintenance points in A has been in operation for 3 days, while its target time period is 4 days. At this time, point A needs to be maintained first.

[0042] It should be noted that when the risk probability of the maintenance point in the target time period drops to a risk probability that does not require maintenance, the monitoring area is automatically updated according to the geographical locations of other maintenance points in the maintenance group.

[0043] In step S500, when no other cables to be maintained appear in the monitoring area within the target time period, there may be three situations for the cable to be maintained, the first being: an increase in risk probability, the second being: an unchanged risk probability, and the third being a decrease in risk probability; when the first situation occurs, if the risk probability of the cable to be maintained continues to increase, maintenance will be performed immediately; if it is only a temporary increase in risk probability due to other reasons, maintenance will be performed after the target time period ends; when the second situation occurs, maintenance will be performed after the target time period ends; when the third situation occurs, when the risk probability within the target time period decreases to a level that does not require maintenance, maintenance will not be performed; when the risk probability within the target time period is always on a downward trend, maintenance may be performed after the target time period ends according to actual conditions, or the target time may be appropriately extended and the cable may continue to be observed.

[0044] It should be noted that when the risk probability is higher than a specific risk threshold, it needs to be maintained immediately regardless of whether it can be formed into a maintenance group with other cables to be maintained.

[0045] By obtaining the historical operation data of the working cable, the current operation status of the working cable can be better predicted, and a preliminary prediction can be made on whether the working cable is at risk. The risk probability of the working cable can be further corrected through the historical maintenance data, so that the risk probability of the working cable is more in line with the previous working conditions. The setting of the maintenance group can shorten the total maintenance time of each maintenance point in the group, and improve the efficiency of the division of the maintenance group by determining the monitoring area, so that the division of the maintenance group is more in line with the actual maintenance needs. The setting of the target time period further limits the time for the division of the maintenance group, making the division of the maintenance group more reasonable. The maintenance order of the maintenance group is determined by comparing the risk probability, which improves the rationality of the maintenance work.

[0046] [Second embodiment]

[0047] See also Figure 2 In a specific embodiment, the risk probability of the working cable is determined based on the real-time operation data, the historical operation data, and the historical maintenance data, and whether the working cable needs maintenance is determined based on the risk probability, specifically including:

[0048] S210, obtaining a theoretical working current of the working cable in a current time period based on historical operating data; obtaining a real-time working current from real-time operating data, and calculating a current difference between the real-time working current and the theoretical working current;

[0049] S220, determining an operating fluctuation coefficient of the working cable based on historical maintenance data, and calculating a risk probability of the working cable based on the operating fluctuation coefficient and the current difference;

[0050] S230: When the risk probability is greater than or equal to the risk threshold, the working cable needs to be maintained; when the risk probability is less than the risk threshold, the working cable does not need to be maintained.

[0051] In step S210, the operating status of the working cable can be known through the current of the working cable, and historical operating data for three consecutive years can be obtained. Generally, the electricity usage in various regions will change over the years. Through at least three consecutive years of data, the changing trend of the current can be observed, thereby reducing the interference of accidental factors. Taking a new industrial area as an example, each factory in the industrial area will introduce new power-consuming equipment, resulting in an increase in power consumption within the new industrial area, and the corresponding current of the working cable will also increase.

[0052] By observing the fluctuation range of the working current of the working cable for three consecutive years, the theoretical working current of the working cable in the current time period can be predicted, and the current difference between the real-time working current and the theoretical working current can be calculated.

[0053] It should be noted that when it is impossible to find a working cable with a working time of more than three years, you can refer to the operating data of other working cables.

[0054] In step S220, when a fault occurs in the working cable, it can be divided into an intrinsic fault and a passive fault, wherein an intrinsic fault refers to damage to the cable itself, and a passive fault refers to a situation where the working cable is broken due to a fault in other cables. Therefore, it is necessary to screen the number of repairs, exclude the number of repairs due to passive faults, that is, the number of invalid repairs, and only count the number of repairs caused by intrinsic faults, that is, the number of effective repairs.

[0055] In step S230, under normal circumstances, the current fluctuation range of the working cable will change as the working years increase. This is because the aging process of the cable itself and the combined influence of environmental factors cause the electrical and physical properties of the cable to change, thereby changing the current transmission characteristics. In addition, the current fluctuation of the working cable changes with the change of seasons. Therefore, the risk threshold of the working cable is set according to the working years of the working cable and the month of the current monitoring cycle. When the risk probability is greater than or equal to the risk threshold, the working cable is recorded as a cable to be maintained.

[0056] The setting of the operating fluctuation coefficient fully considers the impact of maintenance on cable equipment. The risk threshold of the working cable is set according to the working age of the working cable and the month of the current monitoring cycle. It fully considers the impact of external environmental changes and the health of the cable itself on the working current fluctuation, making the judgment of cables to be maintained more reasonable.

[0057] [Third embodiment]

[0058] In a specific embodiment, obtaining the theoretical operating current of the working cable in the current time period based on historical operating data specifically includes:

[0059] S211. Divide each natural year into multiple target monitoring cycles, record the target monitoring cycle of the current natural day as the current monitoring cycle, and record the target monitoring week before the current natural day as the historical monitoring cycle;

[0060] S212. Obtain a historical monitoring period corresponding to the current monitoring period, record it as a comparison monitoring period, and obtain the current fluctuation range and average working current of the working cable during the comparison monitoring period;

[0061] S213. Calculate the theoretical operating current according to the average operating current and the current fluctuation range.

[0062] In steps S211 and S212, the target monitoring cycle is usually divided according to months, and a natural year is divided into twelve target monitoring cycles according to months. The month in which the current natural day is located is recorded as the current monitoring cycle, and the month before the current natural day is recorded as the historical monitoring cycle. When the month of the historical monitoring cycle is the same as the month of the current monitoring cycle, then this historical monitoring cycle is the historical monitoring cycle corresponding to the current monitoring cycle, which is recorded as the comparison monitoring cycle. For example, if the current monitoring cycle of a working cable is August 2024, then the comparison monitoring cycles of this working cable are: August 2023, August 2022 and August 2021.

[0063] Typically, the power consumption of cables is affected by the seasons. Months with higher power consumption usually occur in summer and winter because power-consuming devices are used more frequently in these two seasons, especially in extreme temperature conditions. For example, in summer, the use of air conditioners and cooling equipment will increase significantly to keep the room cool. Some industrial processes that require refrigeration may also increase power consumption in the summer. Therefore, the current carried by cable equipment will be higher.

[0064] In step S213, the average operating current of the working cable during the three consecutive monitoring cycles is obtained to predict the average operating current of the current monitoring cycle. Generally, the range of change in the current range of the working cable is generally divided into three situations: the first is an upward trend, the second is a downward trend, and the third is a fluctuating trend. For example, in a new residential area, the number of users moving in gradually increases in the past few years, and the number of power-consuming devices in each household will also increase, resulting in an increase in the power consumption of the entire residential area. These situations will cause the average operating current of the working cable to change according to the first situation.

[0065] Obtain the average working current of each comparative monitoring cycle, predict the average working current of the current monitoring cycle based on the average working current change trend of the comparative monitoring cycle, record it as the theoretical average current, obtain the current fluctuation range of each comparative monitoring cycle, obtain the working current extreme value in each comparative monitoring cycle based on the current fluctuation range of each comparative monitoring cycle, obtain the current fluctuation range coefficient of the working cable based on the working current extreme value of each comparative monitoring cycle and the average working current of each comparative monitoring cycle, and obtain the theoretical working current through the current fluctuation range coefficient and the theoretical average current.

[0066] For example, through the average working current in June 2024, the average working current in June 2023 and the average working current in June 2022, the theoretical average current of a certain working cable in June 2025 is 10A. When its current fluctuation range coefficient is 1.1, then the maximum theoretical working current of this working cable is 11A.

[0067] Obtaining the average working current of the working cable during the corresponding historical monitoring period not only fully considers the changes in the working current of the working cable with the changes in external electrical equipment, but also considers the impact of different external environments on the working current, so that the obtained theoretical working current is more reasonable. The theoretical working current is calculated based on the average working current and the current fluctuation range, and the impact of the current fluctuation amplitude and the current fluctuation preference on the theoretical working current is considered, so that the theoretical working current is more in line with the actual situation.

[0068] [Fourth embodiment]

[0069] In a specific embodiment, determining the operating fluctuation coefficient of the working cable based on historical maintenance data, and calculating the risk probability of the working cable based on the operating fluctuation coefficient and the current difference specifically include:

[0070] S221. Obtain the service life of the working cable, determine a number threshold of the working cable according to the service life, and determine an operation fluctuation coefficient according to the number threshold and the number of maintenances;

[0071] S222. Correct the current difference according to the operating fluctuation coefficient to obtain a corrected difference, and calculate the risk probability based on the corrected difference.

[0072] In step S221, as the working cable's service life increases, its effective maintenance times gradually increase. The times threshold is divided according to the service life to obtain the effective maintenance times of the working cable. When the effective maintenance times are less than or equal to the times threshold, the fluctuation coefficient is 1. When the effective maintenance times are greater than the times threshold, the fluctuation coefficient is obtained based on the change in the current fluctuation amplitude before and after each effective maintenance of the working cable. For example, when the working cable's service life is M, the effective maintenance times are N, the times threshold is L, and the fluctuation coefficient is Q, the following relationship is satisfied among the fluctuation coefficient, service life, effective maintenance times, and times threshold:

[0073] When L<N, Q=1;

[0074] When L≥N, Q=1+0.1×(N-L).

[0075] In step S222, the theoretical working current is corrected by the operating fluctuation coefficient to obtain a corrected theoretical current. The difference between the corrected theoretical current and the real-time working current is the corrected difference, and the risk probability of the working cable is obtained by the ratio of the corrected difference to the theoretical current.

[0076] For example, if the operating fluctuation coefficient of the working cable is 1.2, the theoretical working current is 10A, and the real-time working current is 13A, then by calculation, the corrected theoretical current of the working cable is 10 1.2, that is, the corrected theoretical current is 12A, the corrected difference is 13-12, that is, the corrected difference is 1A, and the risk probability of the working cable is 1 12, which means the risk probability value is 8.3%.

[0077] It should be noted that if the current of the working cable after maintenance does not fluctuate abnormally, the theoretical current will not be corrected.

[0078] The threshold of the number of working cables is determined according to the working years, and full consideration is given to the impact of different maintenance effects of the working cables during the historical monitoring period. The corrected theoretical current is obtained through the operating fluctuation coefficient, and the corrected difference is obtained by correcting the theoretical current, theoretical working current and real-time working current, so that the obtained risk probability is more in line with the actual situation.

[0079] [Fifth embodiment]

[0080] See also Figure 3 In a specific embodiment, when a new cable to be maintained is added to the monitoring area during the target time period, all cables to be maintained in the monitoring area are recorded as a maintenance group, and the maintenance order of the maintenance group is determined based on the risk probability, specifically including:

[0081] S410, obtaining the maintenance duration corresponding to all cables to be maintained in the maintenance group, and the travel time required for maintenance personnel to reach each maintenance point;

[0082] S420, determining the maintenance order of each point to be maintained according to the risk probability corresponding to each cable to be maintained;

[0083] S430: Calculate the transition time between each maintenance point according to the maintenance sequence, and determine the maintenance workload of the current natural day according to the transition time and the maintenance time.

[0084] In step S410, usually, different cables are located in different locations, so the time required to maintain different working cables is also different. For example, some working cables are located in remote mountainous areas, which are not easy for maintenance personnel to enter, so the maintenance time required will be relatively longer. The total maintenance time required for all cables to be maintained is obtained through historical maintenance data, and the travel time for maintenance personnel to reach each maintenance point is obtained through the map.

[0085] In step S420, when maintaining the maintenance group, the maintenance order of each maintenance point is generally determined according to the risk probability corresponding to each cable to be maintained. However, in special circumstances, such as local discharge of the cable to be maintained or the risk probability of the cable to be maintained continues to increase within the target time period, priority is given to maintaining this working cable.

[0086] In step S430, generally speaking, the daily working hours of maintenance personnel are limited. Therefore, when there are multiple cables to be maintained in the maintenance group, it is necessary to calculate the turning time between each maintenance point according to the maintenance order, and determine the maintenance workload of the current natural day based on the turning time and the maintenance time. After obtaining the maintenance workload of the current natural day, the maintenance order can be optimized according to the geographical location and return route of each maintenance point, so as to save maintenance time and improve maintenance efficiency.

[0087] The maintenance workload for the current natural day is obtained through the journey time, transfer time and maintenance time, which fully considers the working hours of the maintenance personnel, making the obtained maintenance workload more reasonable. In addition, the maintenance time is obtained based on historical maintenance data, which fully considers the different maintenance difficulties of different working cables. The setting of the maintenance sequence also makes the maintenance sequence within the maintenance group more reasonable.

[0088] [Sixth embodiment]

[0089] In a specific embodiment, determining the maintenance order of each point to be maintained according to the risk probability corresponding to each cable to be maintained specifically includes:

[0090] S421. Calculate the difference between the risk probability of each cable to be maintained and the risk threshold to obtain a risk difference;

[0091] S422. When the risk differences are different, determine the maintenance order of the points to be maintained according to the risk differences; when the risk differences are the same, obtain the average maintenance time of the cables to be maintained through the historical maintenance data of the cables to be maintained, and determine the maintenance order of the cables to be maintained according to the average maintenance time.

[0092] In step S422, the risk difference values ​​of the cables to be maintained are sorted, and the maintenance order of the points to be maintained is determined according to the sorting results. When the risk differences are different, the cables to be maintained are maintained in sequence according to the sorting results. When the risk differences are the same, the cables with shorter average maintenance time are maintained first.

[0093] It should be noted that when the risk difference is the same, but the cable to be maintained with a longer average maintenance time saves more time according to the maintenance path, the cable to be maintained with a longer average maintenance time should be prioritized. When the risk difference is the same and the average maintenance time is also the same, the maintenance sequence that saves more time should be selected according to the maintenance path.

[0094] The setting of the risk difference fully considers the impact of different risk thresholds on risk probability. The calculation of the average maintenance time provides clearer sorting criteria for maintenance work within the maintenance group, making the maintenance sequence more in line with the maintenance needs of each maintenance point.

[0095] [Seventh embodiment]

[0096] In a specific embodiment, the transition time between each maintenance point is calculated according to the maintenance sequence, and the maintenance workload of the current natural day is determined according to the transition time and the maintenance time, which specifically includes:

[0097] S431. Determine the maintenance workload for the current calendar day based on the transition time and the maintenance time.

[0098] S432. Record the points to be maintained that can be maintained on the current natural day as maintainable points; and optimize the maintenance sequence according to the geographical locations of the maintainable points.

[0099] In step S432, the geographical locations of the maintainable points are obtained according to the map. When the number of points to be maintained is equal to the number of maintainable points, the maintenance order of the maintainable points is optimized according to the geographical locations of the maintainable points and the return routes. When the number of points to be maintained is greater than the number of maintainable points, the maintenance order of the maintainable points is optimized according to the geographical locations of the maintainable points.

[0100] It should be noted that after the monitoring area is determined based on each point to be maintained, as long as a new cable to be maintained appears in the monitoring area, a maintenance group will be formed. After the maintenance group is formed, maintenance work will be arranged immediately. However, in the actual implementation process, there will be a shortage of maintenance personnel, resulting in the inability to perform maintenance work in the first time after the maintenance group is formed. Therefore, multiple points to be maintained appear in some maintenance groups, and even exceed the maintenance workload of the current natural day.

[0101] It should be noted that when it is impossible to maintain all the cables to be maintained in the maintenance group on the current natural day, the monitoring area will be updated according to the geographical location of the remaining points to be maintained. According to the remaining length of its target time period, continue to observe whether new cables to be maintained appear in the updated monitoring area within the remaining target time period, and maintain them according to the preset method.

[0102] After determining the maintenance workload, further optimization of the maintenance sequence improves the work efficiency of maintenance personnel.

[0103] [Eighth embodiment]

[0104] See also Figure 4 In a specific embodiment, when no new cables to be maintained are added to the monitoring area within the target time period, the maintenance method of the cables to be maintained is determined based on the change in the risk probability of the cables to be maintained within the target time period, specifically including:

[0105] S510: When the rising value of the risk probability is greater than or equal to the first management threshold, the cable to be maintained needs to be maintained;

[0106] S520: When the rising value of the risk probability is less than the first management threshold and the falling value is less than the second management threshold, the cable to be maintained does not need to be maintained separately within the target time period;

[0107] S530: When the decreasing value of the risk probability is greater than the second management threshold, the cable to be maintained does not need to be maintained.

[0108] In steps S510 to S530, under normal circumstances, the maximum risk probability allowed for different cables to be maintained is different. The current fluctuation amplitude of the cable to be maintained when a fault occurs is obtained through the historical operation data and historical maintenance data of the cable to be maintained. The maximum risk probability allowed for the cable to be maintained is obtained based on the current fluctuation amplitude. The first management threshold is calculated based on the maximum risk probability tolerated by the cable to be maintained and the risk probability of the cable to be maintained, and the second management threshold is obtained based on the risk probability of the cable to be maintained.

[0109] For example, the risk probability of the cable to be maintained is 10%, and the maximum allowed risk probability is 30%. Then, the second management threshold of the cable to be maintained is 20%, and the first management threshold is 10%.

[0110] It should be noted that, in step S520, when the cable to be maintained has partial discharge or other special circumstances, it is necessary to perform timely maintenance on the cable to be maintained.

[0111] The setting of the first management threshold and the second management threshold not only takes into account the operational safety of the cable to be maintained, but also takes into account the maintenance efficiency of the maintenance personnel, thereby improving the rationality of the maintenance work.

[0112] Ninth embodiment

[0113] See also Figure 5 The present invention also provides a management system 100. The management method described in the above embodiment is applied to the management system 100. The management system 100 includes: a map module 110: the map module 110 is used to store a working cable distribution map and can divide the monitoring area according to the cable distribution map; a monitoring module 120: the monitoring module 120 is used to monitor real-time operation data; a calculation module 130: the calculation module 130 is used to calculate the risk probability of the working cable; a judgment module 140: the judgment module 140 is used to judge whether the working cable needs maintenance. The management system 100 has all the technical features of the above management method, which will not be repeated here.

[0114] Although the present invention is disclosed as above, the present invention is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art can make various changes and modifications without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Therefore, the scope of protection of the present invention should be based on the scope defined by the claims.

Claims

1. An artificial intelligence-based management method for optical cables, characterized in that: The management method includes: Acquire historical operation data of the working cable and historical maintenance data of the working cable, monitor the operation data of the working cable in real time, and record the data as real-time operation data; Obtaining a theoretical operating current of the working cable in a current time period according to the historical operating data; Acquire a real-time operating current from the real-time operating data, and calculate a current difference between the real-time operating current and the theoretical operating current; Obtaining the service life of the working cable, and determining a threshold of times of use of the working cable according to the service life; determining an operation fluctuation coefficient according to the number threshold and the number of maintenance operations, correcting the current difference according to the operation fluctuation coefficient to obtain a corrected difference, and calculating a risk probability according to the corrected difference; determining whether the working cable needs maintenance according to the risk probability; When the working cable needs to be maintained, the working cable is recorded as a cable to be maintained, the geographical location of the cable to be maintained is recorded as a maintenance point, and a monitoring area is established with the maintenance point as the center; During the target time period, when the cables to be maintained are newly added in the monitoring area, all the cables to be maintained in the monitoring area are recorded as a maintenance group; Obtaining the maintenance duration corresponding to all the cables to be maintained in the maintenance group, and the travel time required for maintenance personnel to reach each of the maintenance points; Determining the maintenance order of each of the points to be maintained according to the risk probability corresponding to each of the cables to be maintained; Calculate the transition time between each of the points to be maintained according to the maintenance sequence, and determine the maintenance workload of the current natural day according to the transition time and the maintenance time; If no new cable to be maintained is added to the monitoring area within the target time period, a maintenance method for the cable to be maintained is determined according to a change in the risk probability of the cable to be maintained within the target time period.

2. The management method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The determining whether the working cable needs maintenance according to the risk probability specifically includes: When the risk probability is greater than or equal to a risk threshold, the working cable needs to be maintained; When the risk probability is less than the risk threshold, the working cable does not need to be maintained.

3. The management method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The obtaining, according to the historical operation data, the theoretical operating current of the working cable in the current time period specifically includes: Divide each natural year into multiple target monitoring cycles, record the target monitoring cycle in which the current natural day falls as the current monitoring cycle, and record the target monitoring cycle before the current natural day as the historical monitoring cycle; Obtaining the historical monitoring period corresponding to the current monitoring period, recording it as a comparison monitoring period, and obtaining the current fluctuation range and average working current of the working cable during the comparison monitoring period; The theoretical operating current is calculated according to the average operating current and the current fluctuation range.

4. The management method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The determining of the maintenance order of each of the points to be maintained according to the risk probability corresponding to each of the cables to be maintained specifically includes: Calculating the difference between the risk probability of each cable to be maintained and the risk threshold to obtain a risk difference; When the risk differences are different, determining the maintenance order of the points to be maintained according to the risk differences; When the risk differences are the same, the average maintenance duration of the cables to be maintained is obtained through historical maintenance data of the cables to be maintained, and the maintenance sequence of the cables to be maintained is determined according to the average maintenance duration.

5. The management method according to claim 4, characterized in that: Calculating the transition time between each of the points to be maintained according to the maintenance sequence, and determining the maintenance workload of the current natural day according to the transition time and the maintenance time specifically includes: Determine the maintenance workload of the current natural day by using the turning point duration and the maintenance duration; Recording the points to be maintained that can be maintained on the current natural day as maintainable points; The maintenance sequence is optimized according to the geographical locations between the maintainable points.

6. The management method according to claim 4, characterized in that: When no new cable to be maintained is added to the monitoring area within the target time period, determining a maintenance method for the cable to be maintained according to a change in the risk probability of the cable to be maintained within the target time period specifically includes: When the rising value of the risk probability is greater than or equal to a first management threshold, the cable to be maintained needs to be maintained; When the rising value of the risk probability is less than a first management threshold and the falling value is less than a second management threshold, the cable to be maintained does not need to be maintained separately within the target time period; When the decreasing value of the risk probability is greater than or equal to the second management threshold, the cable to be maintained does not need to be maintained.

7. An artificial intelligence-based management system for optical cables, characterized in that: The management method according to any one of claims 1 to 6 is applied to the management system, the management system comprising: Map module: the map module is used to store the geographical location of the working cable; Monitoring module: The monitoring module is used to monitor the real-time operation data; Calculation module: the calculation module is used to calculate the risk probability of the working cable; Judgment module: The judgment module is used to judge whether the working cable needs maintenance.

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