Plateau multi-energy complementary prediction scheduling method, device, equipment and medium

Abstract

The invention provides a plateau multi-energy complementary prediction scheduling method, device and equipment and a medium. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring actually measured data and predicted meteorological data in preset future time; calculating the current continuous energy supply comprehensive electric quantity based on the actually measured data; under the condition that the current continuous energy supply comprehensive electric quantity is larger than a first set value, scheduling pre-judgment comprehensive energy is calculated based on the predicted meteorological data; under the condition that the scheduling pre-judgment comprehensive energy is smaller than a second set value, making a production operation scheme on the day according to the current continuous energy supply comprehensive electric quantity, and deciding a scheduling scheme on the next day according to an energy difference value between the scheduling pre-judgment comprehensive energy and the second set value; each system is regulated and controlled based on a production operation scheme on that day, and each system is monitored in real time; and a heat storage difference value between the existing heat storage amount and the planned heat storage amount is calculated at the preset day time, and under the condition that the heat storage difference value reaches a preset threshold value, an external network power supply system is started, or the external network power supply system and a diesel oil energy supply system are started.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of plateau isolated grid power generation prediction and dispatching, and in particular to a plateau multi-energy complementation prediction and dispatching method, device, equipment and medium. Background Art

[0002] With the development of new energy technologies, renewable energy power generation has been widely used in remote or special areas due to its clean, low-carbon and economic advantages. However, for special environments such as high altitude, high cold, and high radiation (such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau or the Zabuye Salt Lake area), isolated power supply systems are a necessary choice because they are far away from the main power grid and difficult to supply power through a unified power grid. This energy supply mode not only needs to meet the basic power demand of the region, but also needs to ensure the high stability and high reliability of power demand for continuous production of local industrial users (such as lithium carbonate plants).

[0003] With the gradual development of the Zabuye Salt Lake area, mineral mining and process processing (such as lithium carbonate extraction) are highly dependent on electricity support. However, due to its changeable climate and harsh geographical environment, the current mainstream isolated grid power generation system has the following deficiencies in energy forecasting and scheduling technology: 1. Intermittency and uncertainty of renewable energy (1) Photovoltaic power generation in plateau areas is strongly affected by the dynamic fluctuations of solar radiation intensity throughout the day. In particular, in the Zabuye area, the cloud cover changes frequently and the radiation is uneven, which can easily lead to drastic instantaneous fluctuations in photovoltaic power.

[0004] (2) Solar thermal power generation relies on the energy accumulation of heat-conducting media (such as molten salt heating), but its heat energy acquisition and release rate is also limited due to insufficient sunlight or low temperatures.

[0005] (3) Although wind energy resources are abundant in some plateau areas, the dramatic fluctuations in wind speed and direction often limit the efficiency of wind energy utilization.

[0006] (4) As the traditional isolated grid prediction system is difficult to capture the complex meteorological change characteristics in the Zabuye area, most existing algorithms are based only on short-term meteorological forecasts or linear regression of single historical data, which results in large deviations in the power output of renewable energy such as photovoltaic and solar thermal energy, leading to inefficient energy supply and demand planning.

[0007] 2. External network dependence and instability (1) For industrial scenarios with large electricity consumption, when the renewable energy generation system cannot meet the load demand, the isolated grid dispatch strategy usually gives priority to purchasing electricity from the external grid to supplement the gap. However, due to the limited coverage of the external grid in Zabuye and similar plateau areas, coupled with long transmission and distribution lines and high probability of failure, the stability of power supply is often insufficient, and power outages or power cuts often occur.

[0008] (2)Once the instability of the external power supply overlaps with the fluctuations of renewable energy, it will cause a lag effect in the response rhythm of the system, leading to premature or ineffective intervention of the energy storage system and the backup power generation system.

[0009] 3. The regulation accuracy of the heat storage (molten salt) system is low The molten salt heat storage system is an important energy storage means in the current high-altitude isolated power grid energy supply mode. Besides coping with the peak-valley impact of solar thermal power generation during the day, it can convert the excess heat from sunlight into reserves and provide heat release supplements at night or during low-radiation periods. However, the existing control strategies are difficult to achieve the intelligent dynamic management of molten salt heat storage: (1)Insufficient optimization of the charging / discharging path: The charging and discharging cycles of molten salt are mostly controlled by simple threshold methods, ignoring the coordination relationship between load dynamic fluctuations and renewable energy output changes; (2)The heat release prediction model lacks flexibility: It has insufficient prediction ability for the heat storage energy consumption curve under continuous cloudy days or sudden weather changes, which may lead to insufficient reserves or even direct interruption of heat supply.

[0010] (3)When the resources of the heat storage system are exhausted, the load needs to temporarily migrate to external energy sources. This uncoordinated transition method will further compress the regulation response time.

[0011] 4. The cost of standby diesel engines is high and the strategy is rough To meet the extreme supply-demand tension in the isolated power grid, diesel generators are usually used as the last layer of backup resources. However, currently, most isolated power grid dispatching algorithms will directly trigger the diesel engines when multiple energy subsystems do not automatically meet the conditions.

[0012] The diesel start-stop logic is usually based on an overly simple fixed load threshold strategy, without fully considering variables such as weather prediction, load adjustment ability, and remaining energy storage to conduct comprehensive analysis, and only triggers mechanical responses. This will lead to the following problems: (1)Frequent start-stops cause increased equipment wear and maintenance costs; (2)It is unable to reasonably allocate standby capacity, increasing the diesel usage cost; (3)In a long-term extreme cold start environment, it may lead to a decline in the performance of diesel engines or even operational failures.

[0013] 5. The flexibility of load dispatching is insufficient The load demands in the isolated power grid often fluctuate violently. For example, in high-energy-consuming industrial processes such as lithium carbonate plants during extraction, evaporation, and concentration, sudden load jumps will occur with the start and stop of equipment. However, the existing isolated power grid load dispatching mechanism lacks flexibility and only adopts the method of simply deactivating non-essential loads. For example: (1)When the system supply is temporarily insufficient, it will directly restrict the operation of some industrial equipment, but this "hard stop and load limit" operation will disrupt the factory rhythm and lead to a decline in production efficiency; (2)There is no detailed distinction for multi-level loads (basic load, high-priority load, low-priority load), and dynamic balance adjustment cannot be achieved between different loads. This not only increases the risk of production energy consumption but also reduces the overall energy allocation efficiency. Summary of the Invention

[0014] The present invention provides a prediction scheduling method, device, equipment, and medium for multi-energy complementarity on the plateau to overcome the defects of the above-mentioned existing technologies, so as to solve the problems of energy supply-demand imbalance and inaccurate regulation in special application scenarios in the plateau area, integrate the resources of multiple energy subsystems, and achieve global scheduling response based on a hierarchical optimization strategy.

[0015] To solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: According to the first aspect of the embodiments of the present invention, a prediction scheduling method for multi-energy complementarity on the plateau is provided, including: Obtain measured data and predicted meteorological data within a preset future time; the measured data includes measured data of each system and measured and predicted daily meteorological data; each system includes a photovoltaic system, a solar thermal system, a battery energy storage system, a heat storage system, an external power supply system, a diesel energy supply system, a security reserve system, and the factory electricity load demand; Based on the measured data, calculate the current continuously available energy comprehensive power corresponding to the daily scheduling decision; When the current continuously available energy comprehensive power is greater than a first set value, calculate the scheduling prediction comprehensive energy corresponding to the cross-day scheduling decision based on the predicted meteorological data; When the scheduling prediction comprehensive energy is less than a second set value, formulate a daily production and operation plan with the current continuously available energy comprehensive power, and make a scheduling plan for the next day according to the energy difference between the scheduling prediction comprehensive energy and the second set value; Regulate each system based on the daily production and operation plan to meet the operation requirements, and monitor each system in real time; Calculate the heat storage difference between the existing heat storage amount and the planned heat storage amount at a preset daily time. When the heat storage difference reaches a preset threshold, turn on the external power supply system, or turn on the external power supply system and the diesel energy supply system to supplement the heat storage amount.

[0016] In an exemplary embodiment, the method further includes: When the current continuously available energy comprehensive power is less than the first set value, determine that the day is abnormal; Calculate the power difference between the current continuously available energy comprehensive power and the first set value; When the power difference reaches the first power threshold and does not reach the second power threshold, enter the load control overnight scheduling; when the power difference reaches the second power threshold, enter the shutdown scheduling; wherein, the absolute value of the second power threshold is greater than the absolute value of the first power threshold.

[0017] In an exemplary embodiment, the first power threshold is determined by the power generated by the diesel generator energy supply system running continuously for a preset time.

[0018] In an exemplary embodiment, the method further includes: When the scheduled prediction comprehensive energy is greater than the second set value, determine that the scheduling decision is normal continuous operation for multiple days, then formulate the daily production and operation plan with the current continuously available comprehensive power, and make the scheduling plan for the next day with the current continuously available comprehensive power.

[0019] In an exemplary embodiment, the calculation formula for the current continuously available comprehensive power is: ; wherein, the current continuously available comprehensive power Et: is used for near real-time output of EMS monitoring, guiding the daily scheduling and abnormal condition determination of working conditions; The remaining photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal conversion power Me on the current day's meteorology: the remaining available photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal conversion power under the current day's meteorological conditions converted based on the measured data; The remaining power of the energy storage battery Be: the remaining power of the energy storage battery converted based on the measured data; The remaining solar thermal conversion power Te of the heat island: the amount of electric energy converted from the remaining heat under the heat island effect based on the measured data; The power of the weak connection backup power supply Ne of the power grid: the power converted from the remaining available backup power supply power on the current day; The security reserve power Se: a preset value.

[0020] In an exemplary embodiment, the calculation formula for the scheduled prediction comprehensive energy is: ; wherein, the scheduled prediction comprehensive energy E': the comprehensive energy for cross-day scheduling decision; The current continuously available comprehensive power Et; The predicted photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal conversion power Em of the meteorology: the photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal conversion power under the predicted meteorological conditions of the preset future time; The converted power Re for supplementing the energy storage battery and molten salt heat storage: the power for supplementing the energy storage battery and molten salt heat storage system.

[0021] In an exemplary embodiment, the same-day meteorological data includes the same-day total radiation, same-day wind direction, same-day wind speed, same-day temperature, same-day humidity, same-day air pressure, and same-day precipitation; and the predicted meteorological data includes predicted radiation, predicted wind direction, predicted wind speed, predicted temperature, predicted humidity, predicted air pressure, and predicted precipitation.

[0022] According to a second aspect of the embodiments of the present invention, there is provided a prediction and scheduling device for multi-energy complementary in plateau, which is implemented by using the prediction and scheduling method for multi-energy complementary in plateau as described in any one of the above, and the device includes: A data acquisition module, configured to acquire measured data and predicted meteorological data within a preset future time; the measured data includes measured data of each system, and same-day meteorological data that is measured and predicted; each system includes a photovoltaic system, a solar thermal system, a power storage system, a heat storage system, an external power supply system, a diesel energy supply system, a security reserve system, and a factory electricity load demand; A same-day calculation module, configured to calculate the current continuously available energy comprehensive power corresponding to the same-day scheduling decision based on the measured data; A prediction calculation module, configured to calculate the scheduling prediction comprehensive energy corresponding to the cross-day scheduling decision based on the predicted meteorological data when the current continuously available energy comprehensive power is greater than a first set value; A scheme decision module, configured to formulate a same-day production and operation plan with the current continuously available energy comprehensive power when the scheduling prediction comprehensive energy is less than a second set value, and decide the next-day scheduling plan according to the energy difference between the scheduling prediction comprehensive energy and the second set value; A system regulation module, configured to regulate each system based on the same-day production and operation plan to meet the operation requirements, and monitor each system in real time; A heat storage supplement module, configured to calculate the heat storage difference between the existing heat storage amount and the planned heat storage amount at a preset same-day time, and turn on the external power supply system, or turn on the external power supply system and the diesel energy supply system when the heat storage difference reaches a preset threshold to supplement the heat storage amount.

[0023] According to a third aspect of the embodiments of the present invention, there is provided an electronic device, including a processor and a memory, where at least one instruction or at least one program segment is stored in the memory, and the at least one instruction or the at least one program segment is loaded and executed by the processor to implement the prediction and scheduling method for multi-energy complementary in plateau as described in any one of the above.

[0024] According to the fourth aspect of the embodiments of the present invention, a computer-readable storage medium is provided. At least one instruction or at least one program segment is stored in the storage medium, and the at least one instruction or the at least one program segment is loaded and executed by a processor to implement the above-mentioned prediction scheduling method for multi-energy complementary in plateau areas.

[0025] By adopting the above technical solutions, the present invention has the following beneficial effects: Based on the special environmental conditions and energy supply-demand characteristics in Zabuye area, the present invention proposes a prediction scheduling scheme for multi-energy complementary in plateau areas. By introducing multi-level energy management and operation adjustment strategies, the overall safety, stability and economy of the entire energy supply system are comprehensively improved, which is specifically reflected in the following aspects: 1. Improve the stability and reliability of the isolated power grid system Formulate the daily production and operation plan by combining the total energy prediction of the continuous time composed of the current day and the preset future time. Through the accurate analysis of multi-dimensional meteorological data (such as light intensity, temperature, wind speed and weather conditions), optimize the scheduling logic among photovoltaic, solar thermal, heat storage and standby power supply, and ensure the energy supply-demand balance of the isolated power grid system under complex and changeable meteorological conditions from the system design.

[0026] In the case of reduced light resources or unstable external network, through the heat release and energy supplement of molten salt heat storage and the optimized adjustment of load, the risk of power supply interruption caused by excessive instantaneous load of the system is effectively avoided, and the operation reliability of the isolated power grid system is greatly improved.

[0027] 2. Optimize the utilization of heat storage resources and improve the energy efficiency of the system Establish a dynamically adjustable operation plan to ensure that the solar thermal mirror field stores heat preferentially during the day, and make a secondary correction to the operation plan in combination with the difference in heat storage amount at the preset current day time, which significantly improves the utilization efficiency of heat storage resources and reduces energy waste.

[0028] By setting the security reserve power as the safety reserve margin, the disaster tolerance ability of the molten salt heat storage system to cope with emergencies (such as deteriorated meteorological conditions) is further improved, and at the same time, the problem of insufficient operation on the next day caused by excessive resource consumption is avoided.

[0029] 3. Reduce the energy consumption cost and improve the economy When it is judged that the solar radiation energy during the day is not enough to support the full storage target, give priority to connecting to the external network for heat storage supplement, effectively reducing the unnecessary start-up times of standby diesel generators, thereby reducing the use frequency of high-cost fuel and improving the overall operation economy of the isolated power grid system.

[0030] When it is predicted that the diesel generator needs to operate continuously for a preset time but still difficult to make up for the energy deficit, the present invention actively restricts the start-up of the diesel engine and avoids the long-term accumulation of high diesel operation costs through further load reduction or shutdown, thus improving the economic benefits of the system.

[0031] 4. Improve prediction accuracy and regulation flexibility Through precise calculation based on weather prediction and energy dynamic matching algorithm, it is possible to adjust and correct the night operation plan in real time according to the dynamic difference between the planned heat storage and the actual heat storage before the preset daily time, maximize the utilization of current resources, and improve the flexibility of the system.

[0032] When facing uncertain meteorological conditions, the present invention preferentially adopts a conservative operation strategy to ensure that the system can still meet the minimum load demand under the most severe conditions, and at the same time avoid the problem of unbalanced energy use caused by misjudging weather conditions.

[0033] 5. Improve load regulation ability and ensure the continuity of lithium plant operation Combined with the peak smoothing management of the production demand of Zabuye Lithium Carbonate Plant, a complete set of response mechanisms is provided for dynamic load adjustment. Under normal circumstances, it is allowed to achieve dynamic balance by reducing non-critical loads, and in special cases (such as complete failure of external energy or insufficient radiation for multiple days), it can also be further reduced or even shut down for backup, fundamentally ensuring the continuity and safety of lithium carbonate production.

[0034] Set the starting conditions and operation time threshold of diesel power generation, form a complementary mechanism with the load adjustment strategy, avoid low-efficiency investment, and improve the scientificity of power resource allocation in the technological process.

[0035] 6. Reduce environmental pollution and balance green development The present invention preferentially utilizes clean energies such as photovoltaic and solar thermal energy, realizes energy peak shaving and storage through a molten salt heat storage system, and at the same time reduces the dependence on fuel power generation as much as possible. Especially in the case of being unable to make up the energy gap, by prohibiting ultra-long diesel power generation and deeply implementing the load reduction strategy to further reduce carbon emissions, more obvious green environmental protection benefits are shown.

[0036] In the whole life cycle, the off-grid prediction and dispatching scheme conforms to the concept of green energy supply, not only saving energy and reducing consumption, but also promoting a higher level of balance between efficient production and environmental friendliness in the Zabuye area.

[0037] 7. Meet the special environmental needs of the Zabuye area The climate in the Zabuye area is complex, weather conditions are changeable, and resources are limited. The present invention fully considers the power supply reliability requirements in plateau areas, can flexibly adapt to the greatly fluctuating photovoltaic and solar thermal power outputs and the uncontrollability of external energy, and realizes a smooth transition between each subsystem. It is an optimized energy supply management method suitable for complex environments.

[0038] At the same time, the system is specifically designed for the high-power and high-load characteristics of the lithium carbonate plant in this area. While serving industrial demands, it can ensure that its important production links are not disturbed to the greatest extent.

[0039] In summary, the present invention realizes an optimized combination of collaborative work among photovoltaic, solar thermal, heat storage, external grid, and diesel engines by constructing an isolated network prediction and dispatching strategy for the integrated energy supply system in the Zabuye area. This method has remarkable effects in strengthening energy utilization efficiency, reducing costs, and environmental friendliness, and can flexibly respond to disastrous weather or other risks. It is an innovative and practical integrated energy supply prediction and regulation technology for high-altitude and cold regions, providing a more scientific, green, and efficient solution for industrial production and the promotion of clean energy within the region. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0040] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the following will briefly introduce the drawings required for the description of the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those of ordinary skill in the art, without creative efforts, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings.

[0041] Figure 1 It is a schematic flowchart of a prediction and dispatching method for multi-energy complementation in plateau areas provided by an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 2 It is an energy supply sequence diagram of a prediction and dispatching method for multi-energy complementation in plateau areas provided by an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 3 It is a structural block diagram of a prediction and dispatching device for multi-energy complementation in plateau areas provided by an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 4 It is a hardware structural block diagram of an electronic device for running a prediction and dispatching method for multi-energy complementation in plateau areas provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0042] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, rather than all embodiments. All other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts based on the embodiments of the present invention belong to the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0043] As used herein, "one embodiment" or "an embodiment" refers to a specific feature, structure, or characteristic that may be included in at least one implementation of the present invention. In the description of the embodiments of the present invention, it should be understood that the orientation or positional relationship indicated by terms such as "upper", "lower", "top", "bottom", etc. is based on the orientation or positional relationship shown in the drawings. These are only for the convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, rather than indicating or implying that the device or element referred to must have a specific orientation, be constructed and operated in a specific orientation, and thus should not be construed as a limitation on the present invention. In addition, the terms "first" and "second" are only used for descriptive purposes and cannot be understood as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly specifying the quantity of the indicated technical features. Thus, features defined with "first" and "second" may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of such features. Moreover, terms such as "first" and "second" are used to distinguish similar objects and do not necessarily have to be used to describe a specific order or sequence. It should be understood that such data can be interchanged under appropriate circumstances so that the embodiments of the present invention described herein can be implemented in an order other than those illustrated or described herein.

[0044] Please refer to Figure 1 , which shows a schematic flowchart of a prediction scheduling method for multi-energy complementation on the plateau provided by an embodiment of the present invention. This prediction scheduling method for multi-energy complementation on the plateau includes the following steps: Step S1: Obtain measured data and predicted meteorological data within a preset future time; the measured data includes measured data of each system, as well as measured and predicted meteorological data of the current day; each system includes a photovoltaic system, a solar thermal system, a power storage system, a heat storage system, an external power supply system, a diesel energy supply system, a security reserve system, and a factory electricity load demand; Step S2: Based on the measured data, calculate the current continuously available comprehensive power corresponding to the scheduling decision of the current day; Step S3: When the current continuously available comprehensive power is greater than the first set value, calculate the predicted comprehensive energy corresponding to the cross-day scheduling decision based on the predicted meteorological data; Step S4: When the predicted comprehensive energy is less than the second set value, formulate a production and operation plan for the current day based on the current continuously available comprehensive power, and decide the scheduling plan for the next day according to the energy difference between the predicted comprehensive energy and the second set value; Step S5: Regulate each system based on the production and operation plan of the current day to meet the operation requirements, and monitor each system in real time; Step S6: Calculate the heat storage difference between the existing heat storage and the planned heat storage at a preset time of the current day. When the heat storage difference reaches the preset threshold, turn on the external power supply system, or turn on the external power supply system and the diesel energy supply system to supplement the heat storage.

[0045] In an optional embodiment, in the above step S1, the daily meteorological data includes the daily total radiation, the daily wind direction, the daily wind speed, the daily temperature, the daily humidity, the daily air pressure, and the daily precipitation; the predicted meteorological data includes the predicted radiation, the predicted wind direction, the predicted wind speed, the predicted temperature, the predicted humidity, the predicted air pressure, and the predicted precipitation.

[0046] Specifically, the total radiation includes direct radiation and diffuse radiation.

[0047] In an optional embodiment, the above step S2 further includes: When the current continuously available integrated power is less than the first set value, it is determined that the day is abnormal; Calculate the power difference between the current continuously available integrated power and the first set value; When the power difference reaches the first power threshold and does not reach the second power threshold, enter the overnight load control scheduling; when the power difference reaches the second power threshold, enter the shutdown scheduling; where the absolute value of the second power threshold is greater than the absolute value of the first power threshold.

[0048] In an optional embodiment, the first power threshold is determined by the power generated by the diesel generator power supply system running continuously for a preset time.

[0049] In an optional embodiment, the above step S3 further includes: When the predicted comprehensive energy for scheduling is greater than the second set value, it is determined that the scheduling decision is normal continuous operation for multiple days. Then, formulate the daily production and operation plan based on the current continuously available integrated power, and make the scheduling plan for the next day based on the current continuously available integrated power.

[0050] In an optional embodiment, the calculation formula for the current continuously available integrated power is: ; where the current continuously available integrated power Et: is used for near real-time output by EMS monitoring to guide the daily scheduling and determination of abnormal operating conditions; The remaining photovoltaic power generation and solar-thermal conversion power Me on the day under the current meteorological conditions: is the remaining available photovoltaic power generation and solar-thermal conversion power under the current meteorological conditions based on the measured data; The remaining battery capacity Be of the energy storage battery: is the remaining battery capacity of the energy storage battery based on the measured data; The remaining heat conversion power Te under the heat island effect: is the amount of electric energy converted from the remaining heat under the heat island effect based on the measured data; The power of the weak grid connection backup power supply Ne: is the power converted from the remaining available backup power supply power on the day; The security reserve power Se: is a preset value.

[0051] The calculation formula for the comprehensive energy of dispatching prediction is as follows: ; Among them, the comprehensive energy of dispatching prediction E': The comprehensive energy used for cross-day dispatching decision-making; The comprehensive power generation capacity Et that can be continuously supplied currently; The predicted photovoltaic power generation and the converted thermal power Em under meteorological conditions: The photovoltaic power generation and the converted thermal power under the predicted meteorological conditions of a preset future time; The converted power Re used to supplement the energy storage battery and molten salt heat storage: The power used to supplement the energy storage battery and molten salt heat storage system.

[0052] In a practical application, the preset future time is the day after tomorrow; then The dispatching decision for the current day: ; The comprehensive power generation capacity Et (MWh) that can be continuously supplied currently: Used for the near-real-time output of EMS monitoring, guiding the dispatching of the current day and the determination of abnormal operating conditions (such as energy loss caused by frequent small disturbances or a single large disturbance); The remaining photovoltaic power generation and the converted thermal power Me (MWh) under the current meteorological conditions: The remaining available photovoltaic power generation and the converted thermal power under the current meteorological conditions converted based on measured data; The remaining power of the energy storage battery Be (MWh): The remaining power of the energy storage battery converted based on measured data; The converted power Te (MWh) of the residual heat in the heat island: The amount of electrical energy converted from the residual heat under the heat island effect based on measured data; The backup power supply Ne (MWh) of the weak grid connection: The power converted from the remaining available backup power supply power (0 - 8.5 MW) on the current day; The security reserve power Se (MWh): An empirically set value.

[0053] The cross-day dispatching decision: ; The comprehensive energy of dispatching prediction E' (MWh): The comprehensive energy used for cross-day dispatching decision-making; The comprehensive power generation capacity Et (MWh) that can be continuously supplied currently; The predicted photovoltaic power generation and the converted thermal power Em (MWh) for the day after tomorrow: The photovoltaic power generation and the converted thermal power under the predicted meteorological conditions for the next two days; The converted power Re (MWh) used to supplement the energy storage battery and molten salt heat storage: The power used to supplement the energy storage battery and molten salt heat storage system.

[0054] The specific dispatching decision is shown in the following table: The total actual output power of photovoltaic ; Photovoltaic module predicted power ; Total photovoltaic training power error ; Actual total power output of solar thermal ; Solar thermal module predicted power ; Total solar thermal training power error ; Among them, f(Pa) is determined by air pressure, f(RH%) is determined by humidity; f(℃,x,y) is determined by temperature and module area, f(m / s, x,y) is determined by wind speed and module area, f(W / m²,x,y) is determined by total radiation and module area.

[0055] Current meteorological remaining photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal conversion electricity Me (MWh): The remaining available photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal conversion electricity on the current day under the current meteorological conditions converted based on measured data; Photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal conversion electricity Em (MWh) predicted for the next two days: Photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal conversion electricity under the meteorological conditions predicted for the next two days.

[0056] Energy = Power x Time, that is ; Then ; ; The photovoltaic power is calculated as follows: ; UMPP: Maximum power point voltage of photovoltaic module; IMPP: Maximum power point current of photovoltaic module; n: Number of photovoltaic modules; ηpv: Comprehensive efficiency of photovoltaic system, considering various loss factors, including component attenuation, temperature, dust, system efficiency and other non-ideal factors in actual operation; ; ; a, b, c are compensation coefficients; Ge: Effective irradiance received by the inclined plane of the photovoltaic module (W / m²); UMPP_STCIMPP_stc: Maximum power point voltage and current under standard test conditions.

[0057] The solar thermal power is calculated as follows: ; DNI: Direct radiation (W / m2); Acollector: Collector area (m2); ηCS: Solar thermal system efficiency; ηex: Heat exchange efficiency; ηR: Rankine cycle efficiency; ; GHI: Global horizontal irradiance (W / m2); DNI: Direct normal irradiance (W / m2); θ: Solar zenith angle.

[0058] Residual charge of energy storage battery Be (MWh): The remaining charge of the energy storage battery converted based on measured data; Converted electricity of residual heat in heat island Te (MWh): The amount of electricity converted from the residual heat under the heat island effect based on measured data; Converted electricity Re (MWh) for supplementing energy storage battery and molten salt heat storage: The electricity used to supplement the energy storage battery and molten salt heat storage system.

[0059] Calculation of electricity storage (electrochemical energy storage) is as follows: ; V: Nominal voltage of energy storage (V); Q0: Initial charge (Ah); I: Average current (A); ∆t: Discharge time (h); η(V, I, T): Correction coefficient of voltage, current and temperature.

[0060] Calculation of heat storage (molten salt) is as follows: ; c: Specific heat capacity (J / (kg·°C)); L: Molten salt liquid level (m); L0: Minimum liquid level of hot salt pump (m); Atank: Bottom area of hot salt tank (m2); ρ: Molten salt density (kg / m3); Th: Hot salt temperature (°C); Tc: Cold salt temperature (°C); η1: Heat transfer efficiency of oil-salt heat exchanger; η2: SGS efficiency; η3: Generator efficiency.

[0061] Standby power of weak-connected power grid Ne (MWh): The electricity converted from the remaining available standby power (0 - 8.5 MW) on the same day; Security reserve electricity Se (MWh): Empirical set value.

[0062] Calculation of power supply from external power grid (weak connection) is as follows: ; Pgrid: Power of external power grid (MW); t: Time (h).

[0063] Calculation of diesel energy supply is as follows: ; Ediesel: Diesel volume (L); ρdiesel: Diesel density (kg / L); Hdiesel: Calorific value of diesel (J / kg); ηgenerator / boiler: Efficiency of diesel generator / boiler.

[0064] The calculation of the emergency reserve power is as follows: ; Pse: Emergency load (MW); tse: Emergency duration (h); φse: Load factor.

[0065] As Figure 2 shown, the control scheme for controlling each system described in step S5 above should satisfy the following order: When ensuring the safety margin of energy storage (heat storage and electricity storage), when the sunlight is sufficient, the photovoltaic and solar thermal systems operate at normal output. Among them, the photovoltaic output is given priority, and the solar thermal energy is stored; when the sunlight decreases, the photovoltaic and solar thermal output decreases, and the power is supplemented by purchasing electricity from the external grid; when the external grid is unstable, the external grid output is reduced, and the molten salt is used to release heat to supplement the power; when the heat storage is insufficient, the heat storage output is suspended, and the load is reduced; when the load reaches the lower limit and the load cannot be further reduced, diesel is used to supplement the power.

[0066] In a practical application scenario, the main principles of scheduling are as follows: (1) Calculate the production operation plan for the 24 hours of the day based on the total energy prediction for three consecutive days.

[0067] (2) Before evening, correct the night operation plan according to the difference between the planned heat storage and the existing heat storage. For every certain amount less of the existing heat storage than the planned heat storage, the external grid is correspondingly turned on, or the external grid + diesel generator is turned on.

[0068] (3) To cope with unknown risks, the heat storage capacity that can support the operation of the steam turbine for the first preset time is used as the safety margin (subsequently adjusted according to the load characteristics of the lithium plant).

[0069] (4) During the day, the mirror field gives priority to heat storage. If it is judged that the radiation energy during the day cannot support full storage before night, the external grid should be connected to increase the heat storage capacity.

[0070] (5) If it is judged that the diesel generator still cannot supplement the energy shortage after continuous operation for more than the second preset time, the diesel generator is not allowed to start for energy supplement, and the load should be further reduced or the unit should be shut down for processing.

[0071] (6) Do not consider two energy conversion methods, such as steam production by boilers for power generation.

[0072] (7) When the meteorological conditions are fuzzy and uncertain, operate in a conservative manner, and it is not recommended to increase the load.

[0073] Corresponding to the prediction scheduling method for high-altitude multi-energy complementarity provided in the above embodiments, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a prediction scheduling device for high-altitude multi-energy complementarity. Since the prediction scheduling device for high-altitude multi-energy complementarity provided in the embodiment of the present invention corresponds to the prediction scheduling method for high-altitude multi-energy complementarity provided in the above embodiments, the implementation manners of the foregoing prediction scheduling method for high-altitude multi-energy complementarity are also applicable to the prediction scheduling device for high-altitude multi-energy complementarity provided in this embodiment, and will not be described in detail in this embodiment.

[0074] Please refer to Figure 3 , which shows a structural block diagram of a prediction scheduling device for high-altitude multi-energy complementarity provided in an embodiment of the present invention; the device includes: 01: A data acquisition module, configured to acquire measured data and predicted meteorological data within a preset future time; the measured data includes measured data of each system, as well as measured and predicted meteorological data of the current day; each system includes a photovoltaic system, a solar thermal system, a power storage system, a heat storage system, an external power supply system, a diesel energy supply system, a security reserve system, and a factory electricity load demand; 02: A current-day calculation module, configured to calculate the current continuously available energy integrated power corresponding to the current-day scheduling decision based on the measured data; 03: A prediction calculation module, configured to calculate the predicted scheduling integrated energy corresponding to the cross-day scheduling decision based on the predicted meteorological data when the current continuously available energy integrated power is greater than a first set value; 04: A scheme decision module, configured to formulate a current-day production and operation plan with the current continuously available energy integrated power and decide the next-day scheduling plan according to the energy difference between the predicted scheduling integrated energy and the second set value when the predicted scheduling integrated energy is less than the second set value; 05: A system regulation module, configured to regulate each system based on the current-day production and operation plan to meet the operation requirements and monitor each system in real time; 06: A heat storage supplement module, configured to calculate the heat storage difference between the existing heat storage amount and the planned heat storage amount at a preset current-day time, and turn on the external power supply system, or turn on the external power supply system and the diesel energy supply system to supplement the heat storage amount when the heat storage difference reaches a preset threshold.

[0075] It should be noted that, when the device provided in the above embodiments realizes its functions, only the above-mentioned division of each functional module is used for illustration. In actual applications, the above functions can be allocated to different functional modules according to needs, that is, the internal structure of the device is divided into different functional modules to complete all or part of the functions described above. In addition, the device provided in the above embodiments and the method embodiments belong to the same concept, and the specific implementation process is detailed in the method embodiments and will not be repeated here.

[0076] An embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, including a processor and a memory. At least one instruction or at least one program segment is stored in the memory, and the at least one instruction or at least one program segment is loaded and executed by the processor to implement the prediction scheduling method for plateau multi-energy complementarity provided in the above method embodiment.

[0077] The memory can be used to store software programs and modules. By running the software programs and modules stored in the memory, the processor can execute various functional applications and achieve high-level autonomous driving. The memory mainly includes a program storage area and a data storage area. Among them, the program storage area can store an operating system, application programs required for functions, etc.; the data storage area can store data created according to the use of the device, etc. In addition, the memory can include high-speed random access memory, and can also include non-volatile memory, such as at least one magnetic disk storage device, a flash memory device, or other non-volatile solid-state storage devices. Correspondingly, the memory can also include a memory controller to provide the processor with access to the memory.

[0078] The method embodiment provided by the embodiment of the present invention can be executed on a computer terminal, a server, or a similar computing device, that is, the above electronic device can include a computer terminal, a server, or a similar computing device. Figure 4 is a hardware structure block diagram of an electronic device for running a prediction scheduling method for plateau multi-energy complementarity provided by an embodiment of the present invention. As Figure 4 shown, the internal structure of the electronic device can include, but is not limited to: a processor, a network interface, and a memory. Among them, the processor, network interface, and memory in the electronic device can be connected by a bus or other means. In the embodiment of the present specification Figure 4 shown, the connection by bus is taken as an example.

[0079] Among them, the processor (or CPU (Central Processing Unit)) is the computing core and control core of the electronic device. The network interface may optionally include a standard wired interface, a wireless interface (such as WI-FI, a mobile communication interface, etc.). The memory is the memory device in the electronic device, used to store programs and data. It can be understood that the memory here can be a high-speed RAM storage device, or a non-volatile memory device, such as at least one disk storage device; optionally, it can also be at least one storage device located far from the aforementioned processor. The memory provides a storage space, and this storage space stores the operating system of the electronic device, which may include but is not limited to: Windows system (an operating system), Linux (an operating system), Android (a mobile operating system) system, IOS (a mobile operating system) system, etc., and the present invention does not make any limitations in this regard; and, one or more instructions suitable for being loaded and executed by the processor are also stored in this storage space, and these instructions can be one or more computer programs (including program codes). In the embodiments of this specification, the processor loads and executes one or more instructions stored in the memory to implement the prediction scheduling method for high-altitude multi-energy complementary provided in the above method embodiments.

[0080] The embodiments of the present invention also provide a computer-readable storage medium, in which at least one instruction or at least one segment of program is stored, and the at least one instruction or at least one segment of program is loaded and executed by the processor to implement the prediction scheduling method for high-altitude multi-energy complementary provided in the method embodiments.

[0081] Optionally, in this embodiment, the above storage medium may include but is not limited to: USB flash drives, read-only memories (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memories (RAM, Random Access Memory), mobile hard disks, magnetic disks or optical discs, etc., various media that can store program codes.

[0082] It should be noted that: the above sequence of the embodiments of the present invention is only for description and does not represent the superiority or inferiority of the embodiments. And the above specific embodiments of this specification have been described. Other embodiments are within the scope of the appended claims. In some cases, the actions or steps recorded in the claims can be executed in a different order from that in the embodiments and still achieve the desired results. Additionally, the processes depicted in the drawings do not necessarily require the specific order or continuous order shown to achieve the desired results. In certain embodiments, multi-small sample image classification and parallel processing are also possible or may be advantageous.

[0083] Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner. For the same or similar parts among the embodiments, reference can be made to each other, and the key point of each embodiment is to illustrate the differences from other embodiments. In particular, for the apparatus embodiments, since they are basically similar to the method embodiments, the description is relatively simple, and for the relevant parts, reference can be made to the corresponding descriptions in the method embodiments.

[0084] Those of ordinary skill in the art can understand that all or part of the steps for implementing the above embodiments can be completed by hardware, or can be completed by instructing relevant hardware through a program, and the program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. The storage medium mentioned above can be a read-only memory, a magnetic disk or an optical disc, etc.

[0085] The above are only the preferred embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent replacements, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention shall be included within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A prediction and scheduling method for multi-energy complementarity in plateau, characterized in that: include: Obtaining measured data and predicted meteorological data within a preset future time; the measured data includes measured data of each system, and measured and predicted meteorological data of the day; the various systems include photovoltaic system, solar thermal system, power storage system, heat storage system, external power supply system, diesel energy supply system, security reserve system and factory power load demand; Based on the measured data, calculate the current continuous energy supply comprehensive power corresponding to the scheduling decision of the day; When the current continuous energy supply integrated power is greater than the first set value, the scheduling prediction integrated energy corresponding to the inter-day scheduling decision is calculated based on the predicted meteorological data; When the scheduling predicted comprehensive energy is less than the second set value, the production operation plan for the day is formulated based on the current continuous energy supply comprehensive power, and the scheduling plan for the next day is decided based on the energy difference between the scheduling predicted comprehensive energy and the second set value; Based on the daily production and operation plan, each system is regulated to meet the operation requirements, and each system is monitored in real time; The heat storage difference between the existing heat storage and the planned heat storage is calculated at a preset time of the day. When the heat storage difference reaches a preset threshold, the external power supply system is turned on, or the external power supply system and the diesel energy supply system are turned on to supplement the heat storage.

2. The prediction and scheduling method for plateau multi-energy complementarity according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The method further comprises: When the current continuous energy supply integrated power is less than the first set value, determining that the day is abnormal; Calculating the power difference between the current continuous energy supply comprehensive power and the first set value; When the power difference reaches the first power threshold and does not reach the second power threshold, the load control overnight scheduling is entered; when the power difference reaches the second power threshold, the shutdown scheduling is entered; wherein the absolute value of the second power threshold is greater than the absolute value of the first power threshold.

3. The prediction and scheduling method for plateau multi-energy complementarity according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The first power threshold is determined by the power generated by the diesel generator energy supply system when it continuously runs for a preset time.

4. The prediction and scheduling method for plateau multi-energy complementarity according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The method further comprises: When the scheduling predicted comprehensive energy is greater than the second set value, the scheduling decision is determined to be normal continuous operation for multiple days, then the production operation plan for the day is formulated based on the current comprehensive power that can be continuously supplied, and the scheduling plan for the next day is decided based on the current comprehensive power that can be continuously supplied.

5. The prediction and scheduling method for plateau multi-energy complementarity according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The calculation formula of the current continuous energy supply comprehensive power is: ； Among them, the current continuous energy supply comprehensive power Et is used for EMS monitoring near real-time output, guiding daily scheduling and abnormal working condition judgment; The remaining photovoltaic power generation and solar-thermal conversion power Me of the day under the meteorological conditions of the day calculated based on the measured data; Energy storage battery residual capacity Be: the remaining capacity of the energy storage battery calculated based on the measured data; Heat island residual heat converted to electric energy Te: the amount of residual heat converted to electric energy under the heat island effect based on the measured data; Grid weak link backup power Ne: The amount of electricity converted from the remaining available backup power on that day; Safety reserve power Se: preset value.

6. The prediction and scheduling method for plateau multi-energy complementarity according to claim 5 is characterized in that: The calculation formula of the scheduling prediction comprehensive energy is: ； Among them, the scheduling prediction comprehensive energy E' is the comprehensive energy used for cross-day scheduling decisions; The current continuous energy supply comprehensive power Et; Photovoltaic power generation and solar-thermal power conversion Em predicted by weather forecast: photovoltaic power generation and solar-thermal power conversion under the weather conditions of the preset future time; Equivalent electricity Re used to supplement the energy storage battery and molten salt heat storage: used to supplement the electricity of the energy storage battery and molten salt heat storage system.

7. The prediction and scheduling method for plateau multi-energy complementarity according to any one of claims 1 to 6, characterized in that: The daily meteorological data includes the daily total radiation, daily wind direction, daily wind speed, daily temperature, daily humidity, daily air pressure and daily precipitation; the predicted meteorological data includes predicted radiation, predicted wind direction, predicted wind speed, predicted temperature, predicted humidity, predicted air pressure and predicted precipitation.

8. A prediction and scheduling device for plateau multi-energy complementarity, implemented by the prediction and scheduling method for plateau multi-energy complementarity as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that: The device comprises: A data acquisition module is used to acquire measured data and predicted meteorological data within a preset future time; the measured data includes measured data of each system, and measured and predicted meteorological data of the day; the systems include photovoltaic system, solar thermal system, power storage system, heat storage system, external power supply system, diesel energy supply system, security reserve system and factory power load demand; A current day calculation module, used to calculate the current continuous energy supply comprehensive power corresponding to the current day's scheduling decision based on the measured data; A prediction calculation module, configured to calculate the scheduling prediction comprehensive energy corresponding to the inter-day scheduling decision based on the predicted meteorological data when the current continuous energy supply comprehensive power is greater than the first set value; A plan decision module is used to formulate a production operation plan for the day based on the current continuous energy supply comprehensive power when the scheduling predicted comprehensive energy is less than the second set value, and decide on the scheduling plan for the next day based on the energy difference between the scheduling predicted comprehensive energy and the second set value; A system control module, used to control each system based on the daily production and operation plan to meet the operation needs and monitor each system in real time; The heat storage supplement module is used to calculate the heat storage difference between the existing heat storage and the planned heat storage at a preset time of the day, and when the heat storage difference reaches a preset threshold, start the external power supply system, or start the external power supply system and the diesel energy supply system to supplement the heat storage.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that: It includes a processor and a memory, wherein the memory stores at least one instruction or at least one program, and the at least one instruction or the at least one program is loaded and executed by the processor to implement the prediction and scheduling method for plateau multi-energy complementarity as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, wherein at least one instruction or at least one program is stored in the storage medium, and the at least one instruction or the at least one program is loaded and executed by a processor to implement the prediction and scheduling method for plateau multi-energy complementarity as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

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